A Risk worth Taking? A Qualitative study regarding Risk and the Refurbishment of the Swedish Civil Defense Shelter System and its effect on Urban ...
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A Risk worth Taking?
A Qualitative study regarding Risk and the Refurbishment of the
Swedish Civil Defense Shelter System and its effect on Urban Planning
Filip Johnsson
Main field of Study – Urban Studies
Degree of Master of Science in Urban Studies (Two-year)
hMaster thesis 30 credits
Spring semester, 2021
o Supervisor: Karin Grundström
Image source: David Digman
2 Summary This thesis investigates how risk can be seen within urban planning, this with a particular focus on the Swedish civil defense shelter system. The research is conducted as a case study, with methods based on interviews with affected actors together with documents and reports regarding the Swedish shelter system. Thereof the main empirical data are collected as of interviews. The interviews set out to find how responsibilities within the civil defense shelter system is viewed and how this in turn affects urban planning. By doing this the specific risks associated with a refurbished civil defense shelter system are analysed from interviews, official documents and reports as well as laws. With the analysis it is concluded that Sweden’s civil defense, and especially the shelter system, were something that was a huge political endeavor and built up from the end of World War II until the 1990’s. At the beginning of the 2000’s civil defense was disbanded in Sweden, but shelters were still to be maintained by property owners and municipalities. And the disbandment took place over just a few years, until it was decided to refurbish Sweden’s civil defense in 2015. This see-saw of events is argued to have led to vague guidelines for municipalities and property owners as to what to do with, and how to care for existing shelters. Something that the interviewed actors also pointed out. Shelters are argued to be put in place as a response to the risk of an armed attack on the civilian population. The shelter system and its accompanying regulations are argued to have an effect on planning practices as well as actors throughout the whole society. Further on it is argued that the decentralisation process that has taken place in the Swedish society and led to a more communicative way of planning clashes with civil defense questions in urban planning. As decisions regarding civil defense and its shelter system is a matter of national interest and therefore surpasses any other interests and is therefore argued to be more in line with rational planning. Keywords: Urban planning, Risk, Shelters, Civil defense
3 Acknowledgements I am mostly grateful for the important and helpful guidance and comments on this thesis provided by my supervisor Karin Grundström. Whom without I am highly doubtful this thesis would ever have been made. Apart from that, huge thanks should be addressed to all the actors who agreed to take their time for doing the interviews included in this thesis. On a more general level, as I approach the end of my 5 years of studies at Malmö University, I would like to thank all the university and all the teachers and fellow students I have encountered throughout these years.
4
Table of Content
Summary…………………………………………………………………………………2
Acknowledgements…………………………………………………………………….3
Table of Content………………………………………………………………………...4
1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………...6
1.1 Background 6
1.2 Problem Formulation 6
1.3 Main aim 7
1.3.1 Research Questions 7
1.4 Previous research 7
1.4.1 Risk and Civil defense research 8
1.4.2 Risk and Planning 8
1.4.3 Research about Shelters 9
1.4.4 The gap in the Research field 9
1.5 Disposition 10
2. Method………………………………………………………………………………...10
2.1 Methodology 11
2.2 Interview-study 11
2.3 Documents and Literature 13
2.4 Reliability 14
3.Theoretical Framework …………………………………………………………….. 14
3.1 Risk 14
3.1.1 Theory of Relational Risk 15
3.1.2 Risk Governance 17
3.2 Planning 18
3.2.1 Communicative and Rational planning 19
3.2.2 Sweden’s Planning turn from Rational to Communicative 20
3.3 Laws and Regulations surrounding Shelters 20
3.4 Analytical Framework 215
4. Shifting Processes and Policies for the Shelter System……………………21
4.1 Historical Background of Swedish Underground Shelters 21
4.2 Modern Day shelters 24
4.3 Future Shelters 25
4.4 From Preparedness to Civil Defense to Shelters 28
4.5 Shelters and Urban Planning 30
5. Analysis………………………………………………………………………………32
5.1 Built up slow, torn down fast 32
5.2 A large discrepancy between emergency preparedness and Civil defense 33
5.2.1 Easier to plan for Emergency preparedness than Civil defense shelters 34
5.3 In the midst of a Start-up phase for the Shelter system 35
5.3.1 Need for constant Evaluation and Re-evaluation 37
5.4 A lack of Knowledge among actors 39
5.4.1 Different risks for different actors 40
5.5 The risk of owning Shelters 42
5.5.1 Same Law. Then: Discontinuation - Now: Continuation 43
5.6 Vague guidelines for planners 45
5.6.1 Communicative and Rational planning in Symbiosis 46
5.7 Do we need a Shelter system? 48
5.7.1 More Rational than Communicative 49
6. Conclusion and Discussion……………………………………………………….51
6.1 What Risks and Responsibilities? 51
6.2 How is Risk affecting Urban Planning? 51
6.3 Discussion 52
6.4 Future research 53
7. References…………………………………………………………………………….54
8. Appendix……………………………………………………………………………… 59
8.1 Interview guide 596 1. Introduction 1.1 Background Planning for risks is a complex situation and as I will show by this thesis risks are fluctuating in their severity over time. Some risks can be up for debate because of the imminent threat it poses for several decades only to diminish for a couple of decades only to once again resurface as a risk that needs to be planned and prepared for. While other risks are constantly being calculated and handled for, e.g., such risks that are connected to the environment. These fluctuating risks however, in turn affects the role actors had and will subsequently have when old risks once again are being revitalised. It’s precisely such a risk that this thesis will deal with and investigate. Urban planning is already today affected by the need to account for risks when it comes to new development. In the Planning and Building act it’s stated that a municipality, when planning, must take into account how the new plans affect the natural environment, civilians' health, landscapes and buildings important from a cultural perspective and the nation’s interest in accordance with the Environmental act (SFS 1998:808; PBL, 2010:900). 1.2 Problem Formulation With the proposition laid forth by the Swedish ministry of defense from 2015, Sweden decided to reinstate the total defense as a response to the heightened political security tensions, this was much due to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in Ukraine (Prop, 2014/15:109). The refurbishment of a total defense includes both military and civil defense operations. As a result of this refurbishment the discussion of Sweden’s large stock of underground shelters, mainly built from the mid to late 20th century, once again resurfaced. A stock of a large quantity of underground structures that has persevered in cities, some have found other uses than solely that of shelters during peacetime, while others have been discontinued. Shelters in modern day Sweden can be found throughout the whole built environment and in different types of buildings such as schools, residential buildings and industrial properties (MSB, 2021). As with underground shelters in modern-day Sweden, the necessity of these constructions is debated. While some argue that there is not a need for such
7 a comprehensive civil defence with the current threat scenario (Lindblad, 2018). Others argue that, not only is it important to renovate and keep existing shelters up to date, but that it could also be of importance to construct new ones (MSB, 2017). A problem arises from this, where cities and private owners are in charge of keeping these large underground spaces renovated at all times to a high financial cost in response to a rather ambiguous risk/threat scenario. Therefore, more must be known about the concept of risk in relation to the decision-making and planning regarding civil defense and furthermore shelters and its role as a tool for responding to a threat. 1.3 Main aim The main purpose of this study is to investigate how the notion of risk is affecting planning practices in Sweden, with the example of how a country's implementation of shelters could be seen as a response to such a risk. I will argue that these civil defense shelters are nowadays an intricate part of the built environment, and with a refurbishment of Sweden’s civil defense, these civil defense structures’ necessity and cost is up for debate. By going through its history in Sweden, its current status and from there discuss its future, I hope to show how the concept of risk in relation to civil defense and shelters is affecting the planning practices and actors in Sweden. Therefore, it’s of importance to understand how risk is produced and accounted for in a setting regarding urban planning. And how different actor’s viewpoints differ within the Swedish system of civil defense shelters. 1.3.1 Research Questions My research question was formulated in regards to the presented aim and thus became: How are planning practices affected by a refurbishment of a civil defense and its appurtenant shelter system? How are risks constructed between key actors within the Swedish shelter system, and what effect this subsequently has on actor’s responsibilities within the system? 1.4 Previous research
8 1.4.1 Risk and Civil defense research Lindholm Schulz’s (2010) study focuses on emergency preparedness and its relations to risk and civil defense, with a starting point in how conflicts and risk management have changed over time. She argues that the difference between nations’ political systems, institutional structures and economical prerequisites makes the research area of civil defense and risk in need for context specificity. This, at the same time as we have moved more towards a globalisation of our society, makes the area of risk and civil defense even more complex. As globalisation has made that military questions, that was once a monopoly of the state, now are defined by several private actors as well as international cooperation between states. She argues that research is lacking in the area of civil defense in a modern context both on international as well as on national level (Ibid.). Much like Danielsson & Johansson (1999), they conducted a study that looked at how prerequisites for civil defense changed with spatial and organisational restructuring in Sweden. They conclude that studies that put risk and risk management within civil defense into a societal context regarding physical relations, ideas, rules and values are few. As much attention has been paid to crisis and emergency preparedness but not to civil defense, Lindholm Schulz (2010) points out that there are large differences between crises and armed conflicts. A recommendation is given that further research from an interdisciplinary perspective regarding civil defense in relation to models of cooperation and borders between military and civil defense is needed. 1.4.2 Risk and Planning Risk in relation to urban planning has mostly been studied from an environmental perspective due to the risk that follows from climate-change. Coaffee (2008) argued that environmental threats in the form of climate change and security threats in the form of terrorism are the risks that have had an effect on urban planning and design. According to the author these risks have had a ripple effect at a small-scale local level where the concern is protection against natural hazards or protection against terrorist acts. However, urban planners and professionals don’t take these risks into account in an adequate way mostly due to financial costs. Coaffee suggests that risks in any form, though the author’s focus is on sustainability and security, needs to be embedded in the whole planning process for new development. On a national
9 level the author suggests that implementation of an integration of policies between different risks needs to happen, a national spatial planning policy could work as such a framework. 1.4.3 Research about Shelters Research about the Swedish shelter system is from before the discontinuation of civil defense, so mainly before the year 2000. And publications about shelters often study the physical design, control and more technical aspects. Wulf (1994) studied the how and where shelters should be built to get the greatest effect for civilian protection and how this could be combined with further models for civilian protection, such as evacuation. Ekengren et al (1994) studied how future constructions of shelters should be implemented and pointed out the vague responsibilities in who oversaw the shelters. At that time, the responsibility for shelters had just been transferred from the state to the municipality. Ekengren (2000) followed 6 years after the last study with an updated one. In which he suggested that the then newly made decision from the state to stop building shelters, were an idea that could have negative effects in the future. As much of the knowledge of building, controlling, and maintaining shelters would then be lost. A more recent study of shelters and their role in civil defense and as a tool for civilian protection is Larsson & Denward’s (2017) study. It is basically a report where the authors go through what was left from the old civil defense and shelter system, and where it could possibly go due to the refurbishment of Sweden’s civil defense. The weapons that the current shelters were built for is 40 years old and needs to be looked over if it can withstand today’s weapon systems. This, together with an inventory to see how the shelters have been maintained and exercises that include the whole course of action, are hypothetical scenarios that would call for the use of shelters. 1.4.4 The gap in the Research field The research presented in this section is what positions my studies in the current research field. Even though several of the studies presented are over 20 years old when it comes to the question of civil defense, this does not necessarily make them outdated. As soon after some of the older research papers were written a large part of Sweden’s civil defense was put in hibernation. Previous research also shows how risk within civil defense, risk within planning
10 and research about shelters have been conducted. Yet, the concept of risk connected to the civil defense shelter system and how this affects urban planning is still absent. 1.5 Disposition In the Method chapter I will outline my methodology and methods for collecting the data for this thesis, consisting of document analysis, laws and regulations and an interview study. Questions regarding reliability and limitations are discussed throughout the chapter. In the Theoretical framework the concepts of relational theory of risk, risk governance, communicative and rational planning as well as laws and regulations regarding shelters will be presented. In Shifting processes and Policies of the Shelter System a historical background of the shelter system is given together with reports regarding the current and the intended future state of the system. Followed by a description of the differences when planning for peacetime risks and risks associated with civil defense. This chapter is then concluded with an example of the relation between planning and shelters. The Analysis consists of the interviews together with the theories and documents about civil defense shelters, which are then brought together to be further analysed. Finally, the Conclusion summarises and answers the posed research questions followed by a more general discussion and suggestions for future research. 2. Method The thesis has a qualitative approach rather than quantitative. Bryman (2006) argued that a qualitative methodology has its advantages compared to a quantitative when the research problem at hand deals with more complex social phenomena. The choice of a qualitative methodology is derived from that this thesis is seeking to investigate a complex social phenomenon. As shelters have mainly been researched with technical and quantitative aspects in focus, my research instead calls for a qualitative approach. This research is a part of the social constructivist research tradition. According to social constructivism the questions and problems that a researcher sets out to answer in such practice
11 are complex or abstract and often no objective truth surrounds them (Creswell, 2007). These abstract problems are then a result of interpersonal interactions in a world that is socially constructed. As a researcher within this tradition, one's objective is then to find varied interpretations of these abstract problems rather than narrowing them down (Creswell, 2007). This starting point from the research tradition is the underlying reasons for my chosen methods in this thesis. 2.1 Methodology The methodology for the thesis is in the form of a case study. The case study is about the system and underlying processes and policies that is the civil defense and shelter system. Flyvbjerg (2006) argues that case study is useful as a qualitative research approach as it sets knowledge in a fixed context. Flyvbjerg goes on by saying that the case study sets the research close to situations in real life that gives the researcher a large number of details about a specific case. This provides the researcher with “a nuanced view about reality” (Flyvbjerg, 2006, p. 223). For this thesis this is of importance since a large part of my research is to find out actor’s views on the civil defense system. The case study undertaken in this research is a descriptive case study. Yin (2003) suggests that the descriptive case study is of use when researching specific occurrences in a specific circumstance. As this research is based on risks and its occurrences in a specific context, namely the context of urban planning within the civil defense shelter system, the descriptive case study suits my aim well. 2.2 Interview-study The investigation comprises five semi-structured interviews (Kvale & Brinkmann, 2009). Semi-structured interviews therefore serve as the primary data collected for this thesis; this is to get different actors’ viewpoints on the problem at hand. Researchers and advocates from organisations that are associated with risk planning and the Swedish shelter system are interviewed. This is to get their view on how areas of responsibilities, planning as a response to a risk and how the actors see their role as well as the other actors involved when it comes to both risk and the Swedish shelter system. The semi-structured interview suits well according to Ward (2015) when interviewing elite professionals. The semi-structured format fits well due to the fact that the subject at hand is something that the interviewee as well as the
12 interviewer is familiar with. Therefore, the structure that a semi-structured interview provides, helps the interviewer to not be influenced or colored too much by the respondents (Ibid.). For the interviews GDPR regulations were adhered to. Questions were then asked from predetermined themes such as Risk, Collaboration and Planning in relation to civil defense and shelters. An example of the interview guide can be found in Appendix. Concepts of risk in relation to shelters were used to exemplify risks that the respondents might have experienced in their profession. The different types of actors of course had different experiences and couldn’t always answer the questions to the same extent. As a private property owner doesn’t solely sit with civil defense questions, they might not be able to answer to the same extent as an employee from a public organisation. As the interviews for the most part was conducted in Swedish the interviews were first transcribed in Swedish, and then for the sake of this thesis quotes and the parts of the interview that were relevant were translated by me. Here follows a quick description of each respondent: Mattias Karlsson, from the county administrative board of the region of Kalmar. works with emergency preparedness and civil defense questions on a regional level. Martin Allard, today a consultant at 4cStrategies, which is a consultant firm to connect the business sector with questions of total defense planning. Allard also had worked at the county administrative board of Uppsala in the beginning of the 2000’s. 4cStrategies works with incorporating and pressing on the importance of the business sector in civil and total defense. Anton Dahlmark, works at the Fortifications agency directly under the general director. His section is responsible for the border between external and internal questions. As the Fortifications agency is a property-owner directly tied to the government, they rent out mostly to the Swedish armed forces. The fortifications agency is also supposed to help other authorities with knowledge about shelters and its protection. Robert Jademyr is in charge of security questions for Familjebostäder in Gothenburg. Familjebostäder is a housing corporation that rents out apartments for civilians. Several of their properties contain shelters and thus affecting their organisation.
13
Thomas Schilén works for the municipality of Stockholm and is in charge of administering
the city’s properties, which shelters are a part of in several cases. The city of Stockholm owns
several shelters in excavated caverns that have been used in peacetime for different functions.
Such as parking garages or smaller industrial firms. In this case the city has functioned as a
landlord, renting out these spaces. Schilén has worked over 20 years at his position. Which
was of use for this thesis as he had experiences both from when civil defense questions were
downprioritised and as they are now, prioritised.
2.3 Documents and Literature
To get to relevant documents and theories several databases have been used such as Google
scholar, Scopus as well as databases for MSB1 and FOI2. Search words included Fallout
shelters, Civil defense, Total defense, defense planning. In the end I found the reports that
were set in a Swedish context were the most useful as I designed this thesis as a case study.
For most of the Swedish reports on the civil defense system I found through MSB and FOI.
Through searches in their databases, I managed to find 15 documents that discussed both civil
defense and shelters. Several of these reports were built upon one, or several, of the other
reports which made the reading and screening process easier for me as the researcher.
As for the theories used for this thesis, mainly risks and planning. The previous research
regarding risks in relation to planning as well as civil defense, led me via their references to a
theoretical core regarding risk. This is how I from several studies regarding planning, shelters
and civil defense managed to find my way through to relational theory of risk and risk
governance.
The laws and regulations discussed in this thesis were found throughout the process of going
through documents and reports of the civil defense shelter system. The laws were discussed in
these reports, but I found it to be of importance to read the actual source material myself as
well. The laws and regulations were found at the website of the Swedish government
(Riksdagen, 2021).
1
MSB is the authority in charge of Swedish civil defense and the shelter system and gets its mission
from the government.
2
FOI is the Swedish Defence Research Agency.14 Several documents analysed and as a part of the process and policy of shelters, are written by authorities such as MSB and Boverket. As these reports could be colored by authorities' underlying interest, and it’s not always possible to find reports that come from another point of view. Therefore, these documents are used more to do an account of the policy and process behind the shelter system. As I was unable to get an interview with any representative from MSB, the authority in charge of organising civil defense questions, the reports and studies conducted by them also functions as a compliment from this missing interview. With the help of these documents and their official website I have been able to get a grasp on their viewpoints as an actor within the Swedish shelter system. With the empirical data gathered by interviews and the secondary data collected in forms of relevant reports, laws and research could be classified as a triangulation (Olsen, 2004). Which refers to research conducted by combining several methods to be able to analyse the gathered material. 2.4 Reliability The limitations of the interviews are in the numbers of the interviews conducted. A higher number of interviews would surely have served this thesis well, but as getting actors to agree to do the interviews proved to be difficult, it made it hard to conduct more interviews than the ones conducted in the end. Some critics would argue that a qualitative study based on document analysis and interviews may not be as generalisable as a research conducted with a quantitative approach. Flyvbjerg (2006) states in answers to the critics of qualitative research that formal generalisation is just but one way to gather knowledge within one's chosen field. He goes on by saying that case studies with a quantitative approach and descriptive in its design, that does not seek out to generalise, can still be of value in what Flyvbjerg describes as the “...collective process of knowledge accumulation in given field or society” (Flyvbjerg, 2006, p. 227). As this research aims at describing how risk and responsibilities are affecting. Not only the system, but also the actors within a specific system, and coming from a social constructivist approach trying to understand different viewpoints rather than generalising. I argue that the use of a qualitative approach outweighs that of the quantitative in this case.
15 3.Theoretical Framework 3.1 Risk Within mathematics risk is defined as a statistical probability where the outcome of this risk is paid attention to via numbers symbolising a ‘cost’ in form of actual cost, human lives or bad health (Boholm, 2010). As the Swedish shelter system could be said to be in place as a response to a risk, in the case of shelters the risk of an attack of some sort from an antagonistic force, the concept of risk will function as a theoretical base for this thesis. 3.1.1 Theory of Relational Risk Boholm & Corvellec (2010) defines the way to look in a relational way when looking at the theory of risk, and that is that risk comes from the relations between a risk object and an object at risk. Risk is thought of, according to a relational theory of risk, to appear from situated cognition that in turn creates this relationship of risk. Situated cognition implies that all gathered knowledge is situated and tied to context so be it social activity, cultural or spatial context, and that knowledge gathered within one context could not be used in a reliable way outside the context (Compton, 2013). In relational theory of risk, it’s this situated cognition that ties two objects, the risk object and the object at risk, so that the object at risk is threatened, in a specific context, by the risk object (Boholm & Corvellec, 2010). An object within the relational theory of risk does not have to be a tangible object as such, but can be referring to a physical, cultural or social artifact. Within this theory of relational risk value is also of importance, one of the earliest researchers when it came to relational risk, Eugene A. Rosa, defined risk as “Risk is a situation or event where something of human value (including humans themselves) has been put at stake and where the outcome is uncertain.” (Rosa, 1998, p. 28). For an object at risk, to get that tail in the form of “at risk”, researchers argue that the object at hand must have some form of value ascribed to it (Boholm & Corvellec, 2010). But the term value is even in itself ‘valued’ differently depending on where a risk is being constructed, cultural perceptions instead play a main part on how risk and the very value that a risk is threatening is being conceived. And how every part of a risk, from when it’s ‘constructed’ and until it’s ‘handled’ is based on cultural context such as historical experience, income and social identity, to name a few.
16 What Boholm & Corvellec (2010) refers to as the elements of a relational theory of risk is explained by this figure: Figure 1 (Boholm & Corvellec, 2010, p. 179). The object at risk is the element of relational risk that is ascribed a value, and hence the object for which the risk object could be labeled as dangerous (Boholm & Corvellec, 2010). Value, as mentioned before, is something that could be said to be worth preserving or protecting such as life, a certain set of principles and in modern day a greater focus on value in financial forms. So, whereas the risk object should be kept out and away, the object at risk should be kept from harm's way and in. The concept of keeping risk objects out and objects at risk in is according to the authors often the way in which risk is handled within the fields of risk management and risk governance. But here the concept of situated cognition comes back, both risk objects and objects at risk are assigned their danger contra value in a current context, which could mean that what is of value today does not necessarily need to be of value tomorrow. The risk a risk object produces could also be said to be independent from the first construction of the risk, and risk-related uses with the risk object as to exemplify another risk. Boholm & Corvellec exemplifies this with the analogy of ‘dangerous dogs’, as dangerous dogs could then be used as arguments in debates that are not necessarily at firsthand about ‘dangerous dogs’. But could also take place in debates about them being used as weapons by criminals etc. (Boholm & Corvellec, 2010). The relationship of risk is subsequently a relationship an observer forms amongst the object at risk and the risk object, this is also within the theory of relational risk being described as created via social construct. Meaning that the observer, in the form of a scientist, local civilian or decision maker, establishes this relationship together with the interests and assumptions the observer has beforehand. Even if a relationship of risk would be socially constructed it does not necessarily mean that it’s random or erratic, to count as a relationship of risk within this theory there are some limitations as of when a relationship between two objects could be seen as a relationship of risk (Boholm & Corvellec, 2010). First is that there has to be a chance that the risk could occur if certain conditions are met, that does not mean that the risk has to occur. Second, a
17 relationship of risk has to show that there is a causal relationship between the risk object and the object at risk. So, the risk object would have to be able to change the object at risk in one way or another. Third, the relationship of risk with its causal relationship between the risk object and the object at risk together with the chance that the risk might occur is that the relationship of risk calls for action. 3.1.2 Risk Governance The thoughts presented in the section above also point out that a relational theory of risk has an impact on risk governance and how this field could be understood in terms of context- based situated cognition (Boholm & Corvellec, 2010). Risk governance is a tool developed to be able to deal with a wide variety of risks that faces the urban environment of the modern world (Renn et al, 2018). The concept of risk governance is meant to function as a response to the often complex risks that a city might face and how a wide variety of factors such as municipal, private, regimes and individuals respond to risks. The handling of risks has changed, and therefore also the concept of risk governance has changed. Risk governance has turned away from a centralised and state-centric way of decision making when it comes to risks, today there is instead a wide variety of public institutions with vertical governance structures that connect the different levels of government from local, regional, national to international. This in turn points to a more and more complex society where a range of actors and individuals with their own knowledge and political interest affect the way risks are governed in a society. Renn et al (2018) introduces three main problems that are associated with adaptive and integrative risk governance: Complexity, Uncertainty and Ambiguity. The complexity refers to the inherent complexity in cause-effect relationship within assessing risks. Well researched and constructed statistical models to calculate the probabilities are therefore a need when dealing with the complexities inherent in many risks. As risk may occur in such a fashion that they are complex due to interceding variables. If for example an antagonistic force were to drop a bomb the effect on the built environment and people in the vicinity of the blast could be said to constitute such intervening variables. A building collapsing, the authors argue, could be said to have a linear relationship and therefore not as complex, but if the risk that
18 causes the collapse is random then the relationship would still be associated with a certain complexity. Uncertainty is a matter of scientific uncertainty. It relates to risks where scientific proof and quantitative calculations are seldom to be found if not deemed totally impractical to execute, this in turn makes the probability and outcome of such a risk hard to estimate (Ibid.). When talking about either risk assessment or risk governance, human error plays a role. Assumptions and predictions about certain unwanted events are therefore bound to a certain degree to be uncertain, although well calculated statistical methods have been applied. Risk scenarios with a high level of uncertainty could be earthquakes, health effects from pollution and acts of violence such as sabotage or terrorism. Ambiguity is in the case of risk governance described as sociopolitical ambiguity, an ambivalence towards the same risk where the interpretation or reasoning differs as to the scenario or circumstances around a risk (Ibid.). The authors distinguish between two forms of ambiguity when it comes to a risk or a threat, that is interpretative ambiguity and normative ambiguity. Interpretative ambiguity is that interpretations from experts as well as laypeople may very well differ, even though the interpretations are based on the same scientific identical observations. Normative ambiguity is instead interpretations of risk that are of rather high scientific uncertainty and high complexity, that is risk that are not assessed via statistical data. The normative side of ambiguity is according to the authors an effect of the pluralistic societies that one can say exist in many of the industrialised countries. So, with normative ambiguity the interpretations allude more to a discussion of what is tolerable or not, ethics and the distribution of action and economic means when it comes to certain risks (Renn, et al, 2018, p. 436). Renn et al suggests that complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity is a part of when one set out to analyse risks and goes on to say that risk governance should be seen as a continuous and dynamic process that is ever-changing due to the three parts of the analytical stage (Renn et al, 2018). This type of risk governance that the authors call adaptive and integrative risk governance and is of importance for politics and society alike to be able to steer risk problems in a way that minimises the threat from potential outcomes. The process of risk governance being adaptive and integrative alludes to a learning and relearning from similar and previous risks, both to handle risk that is set in the now as well as set in the future. 3.2 Planning
19 According to Fainstein (2000) theory regarding urban planning is built on several different disciplines and is therefore hard to completely define. One way to look at it is that planning theory incorporates a wide number of different research subjects regarding the roles that the state should have, what role the market should have and what role civil society has when it comes to social and spatial transformation (Fainstein & DeFilippis, 2016). Planning is divided in the sense that even within the field are on one hand those who choose to define it from the point of planning for objects in the sense that it’s about the regulation and production of relations between citizens and space as well as constructions and space (Ibid.). On the other hand, there are those who tend to look at it from the viewpoint of decision-making and its role in relation to spatial development (Ibid.). Fainstein and DeFilippis further states that planning theory “Even if the focus is narrowed to understanding practice, planning practice itself evades a coherent theoretical framework” (Fainstein and DeFilippis, 2016, p. 12.). As this thesis sets out to investigate the question of how planning practices are affected by risk, this quote functions well as to explain the complex world as to where planning practices are situated. The quote is further explained as exemplifying the often fuzzy border between urban planners and professionals tied to dealing with planning, whereas people who aren’t planners can still do planning and vice versa (Fainstein & DeFilippis, 2016). 3.2.1 Communicative and Rational planning As claimed by Judith E. Innes, you could spot planning theory developed in two main directions, a rational and instrumental way of looking at planning and as a reaction to this a communicative planning theory has emerged (Innes, 1995). Communicative planning is instead a way of planning that incorporates more a concept of inclusion where the planner sets out to mediate between stakeholders and affected actors (Fainstein & DeFilippis, 2016). An emphasis within communicative planning is put on compromises to be able to ensure all involved actors’ interests are being taken into account. These two, communicative and rational planning could be seen as the two main paradigms of planning theory in the 20th century according to the Innes (1995). As one of the leading theorists within communicative planning Innes believed that professional planners should not be seen as impartial experts, on the contrary from a rational planning model, but that planners as well as actors included in spatial development does not come with impartial knowledge (Machler & Wilz, 2015). Instead, Innes argues that all
20 knowledge from planners and related professionals are socially constructed and that the production behind that knowledge is of main importance (Machler & Wilz, 2015; Innes, 1995). Planning is at the same time rational in the sense that it is supposed to see to it that a municipality manages to get by financially, functionally, and strategically lending the planner the role as a social engineer (Mannberg, 2006). A society’s needs in the everyday sometimes calls for fast and rational more top-down solutions compared to a society more and more leaning towards a sustainable turn that is a much slower process compared to the needs that rational planning meets. A turn towards Communicative planning is about breaking down hierarchical structures making society more into a network, In Mannberg’s meaning this subsequently leads to a decentralisation when it comes to urban planning. 3.2.2 Sweden’s Planning turn from Rational to Communicative Planning in Sweden was for a long time a state-led matter, even though the municipality was the one who executed the actual practices (Khakee, 1996). When looking back to the 60’s and 70’s, the central government had financial funds that the municipality were able to take part of as a part of an expansive public planning sector. The state still had the final say in this top- down practice, described as a form of rational planning practice. During this time the municipality still had a monopoly over planning and building practices as was proclaimed as early as 1947 in that year's version of the Planning and Building law (Boverket, 2020; Khakee, 1996). However, detailed development plans had to, at this time, be approved by a government issued public authority (Boverket, 2020). Between the late 80’s and the beginning of the 90’s the government started stepping back and the municipality’s role in planning was further stressed (Khakee, 1996). As a result of this, negotiations in relations to planning and development matters of public interest started to make its way into planning practices, not only negotiations with the government and the county administrative board but also local citizens and business actors (Ibid.). Both Mannberg (2006) and Khakee (1996) suggest that it is exactly this, that could be described as a decentralisation process, that points towards the more communicative way of planning in Sweden by the mid 90’s and beginning of the 2000’s. This decentralisation process led to that to this day the municipalities are supposed to work on a principle of autonomy and the municipalities thus have a planning and building monopoly in Sweden (Khakee, 1996). The state and the county administrative board, as their executive authority, only kept their right to intermeddle with regards to that which could be of
21 national interest. Such national interests as defense questions, natural resources, or communications to name a few (Boverket, 2020). 3.3 Laws and Regulations surrounding Shelters In the law 2006:545 regarding Shelters, where the rules and laws are laid down about how shelters are supposed to be built, equipped, and maintained (SFS 2006:545). According to the law shelters should be equipped and maintained in such a way that they should be able to withstand effects from weapons that possibly could be used in an attack against Sweden (SFS 2006:545). They should also be designed in such a way that they could serve a peacetime purpose and that the authority appointed by the Swedish state, MSB, could lay down further regulations regarding placement, design, equipment as well as the timespan in which they have to be able to be prepared to be used (SFS, 2006:545). The responsibility for keeping a shelter maintained and appurtenant equipment up to date lies according to the law on the owner of the building or facility in which the shelter is placed (SFS, 2006:545). In chapter 6 of the law, it states that property owners have the right to be reimbursed from the state for their additional cost when it comes to measures they must fix after injunction from a control made by MSB, unless the measures in question have been caused by lackful maintenance. 3.4 Analytical Framework Relational theory of risk is later used in the analysis to understand how the risk shelters are responding to is being constructed. Further on risk governance helps one understand how such risks, as discussed throughout this thesis, could be met. The notion of communicative and rational planning, as well as the historical turn in the favour of communicative planning, will be of importance to analyse how the Swedish shelter system functions together with planning practices. The legislation is needed to understand the shelter system as it’s there that the main responsibilities for the shelter system are stated. 4. Shifting Processes and Policies for the Shelter System
22 4.1 Historical Background of Swedish Underground Shelters The years prior to the 2nd world War the need for civilian protection from air-raids became apparent, the Swedish state regarded the protection of cities with military measures such as air defense to be all too costly; they instead decided to start building shelters for the civilian population (Bennesved, 2013). By 1939 underground shelters were being constructed within the city of Stockholm, all of these shelters were built to be able to shelter around 300 people, at the same time many regular cellars were reinforced to be able to protect civilians from air- raids. As it were, these reinforced cellars would quickly become outdated as new weapons saw the light of day after the 2nd world war, subsequently these types of reinforced cellars as shelters were only around in the Swedish society until around the 1960’s. It is in these years before the 2nd World War that the Swedish shelter system is put into place and will affect the coming 60 years of building shelters in Sweden. As the threat of the 2nd World war was replaced with the threat from the Cold war, Sweden used the technical advances arrived from the Swedish method, a drilling method invented in Sweden, to build even more advanced shelters within the excavated caverns for civilian and military use (Försvarsmakten, 2021). The shelters now needed to protect Swedish citizens in case of a nuclear attack would therefore need to be more advanced and were implemented as a response to this (Bennesved, 2013). And while the world powers such as the Soviet Union and U.S.A took part in what is often referred to as an arms race, Sweden has been described to have taken part in a shelter race (Försvarsmakten, 2021). There is actually just one country that exceeded Sweden in building more underground shelters per capita, and that is another famous neutral country: Namely, Switzerland. In 1957 the world’s largest nuclear safe underground shelter was finished in Katarinaberget in Stockholm, this shelter was constructed to be able to protect 20.000 civilians, and functions as a parking garage with a capacity for 500 cars during peacetime (Vesterlund, 2018). In the 60’s and 70’s the focus of the policy regarding underground shelters shifted from these larger population shelters to focus on building smaller shelters in the basements of new housing, still intended to be nuclear-safe (Vesterlund, 2018). This coincided with the strong social-democratic welfare state in Sweden at the time and this led to laws being passed that saw to it that builders had to include shelters in new housing constructions (Bennesved, 2020). As a result of this the responsibility fell on the property owners to build shelters,
23 compared with before when mainly the state had been the main actor behind constructing shelters, this is one of the reasons why to this day Sweden has around 65.000 shelters spread across the country. However, at this time it was still the state’s responsibility to see to it that the Swedish shelter system was being developed (Johansson et al, 2017). Within this time in Swedish history shelters that were built for the civilian population within the urban environment were typically categorized into two different categories. One being normal shelters, these were shelters that were typically built in the basements of regular apartment buildings and were meant to be able to protect a smaller number of people (MSB, 2021). The other category is referred to as population shelters, these are large shelters built in excavated rock caverns underground located in the central areas of the larger cities in Sweden meant to protect a large number of civilians (Berglund & Lundgren, 2011). However, this does not mean that in the central areas of cities the only shelters were that of population shelters, normal shelters were still meant to be built with every new apartment building even within the cities (MSB, 2017) For the population shelters the state and the municipality of the cities were in charge of building them, whereas the property owner were in charge when it came to the building of normal shelters. Many of these shelters still exist to this day, almost always with a responding peace-time usage to its war-time equivalent (Berglund & Lundgren, 2011). In the 1980s it was further stated that a greater responsibility for civil defense measures would be on the municipalities plate, as preparations for an invasion were made with the help of planning practices during peacetime (Johansson et al, 2017; SOU 1983:68). Although within the same decision from SOU 1983:68 it is clarified that civil defense is still mainly the government’s concern, but that the government through subsidies handed a part of the responsibility over to the municipalities (Ibid.). With the ending of the cold war around 1990 Sweden saw that peace lay ahead and that an attack on Swedish land seemed improbable (Jönsson, 2019). As a consequence of this the military defense changed focus from protecting Sweden from an invasion to a focus on participating in international efforts, for Sweden’s civil defense this meant that a large part of it was disbanded (Ibid.). In the middle of the 1990’s civil defense was still a part of Sweden’s institutions, although to a lesser extent. After a new orientation for total defense in 1995, civil defense was completely handed over to the municipality and the county administrative board. At this time civil defense and emergency preparedness was gathered in the same law, which had the consequence that responsibilities
24 that during peacetime lay with one actor are the same during crises and war (Ödlund, 2011). Johansson et al (2017) writes about the beginning of the 21st century that it has been characterised by several reforms affecting civil defense and the shelter system, reforms that largely have neglected civil defense planning and instead put all of its focus on peacetime crisis handled by emergency preparedness. Largely due to this the shelter system has also been neglected with lesser controls and no new shelters built since 2002 (Johansson et al, 2017; MSB, 2019). 4.2 Modern Day shelters Today, MSB has, according to the act 2008:1002, the main responsibility for the protection against disasters, emergency preparedness and civil defense (SFS, 2008:1002). As of 2006, LCF, the former law about civil defense, ceased to exist and the regulations regarding shelters were transferred into a new law that was solely about shelters (SFS, 2006:545). This change also meant that all the responsibilities regarding shelters such as the decision of building new ones and inspection was completely carried over to the state instead of the municipalities (MSB, 2017). The authority in charge for all of this became MSB. MSB (2017) wrote a report about the state of Sweden's civil protection and shelters and how to move forward. MSB argued that a need for a change and possible refurbishment of the civil protection and civil defense in Sweden, and that this is needed due to the fact that much of both the organisations and assets has been discontinued. When they described the current situation in Sweden they pointed out that it has occurred a redistribution of the population in the last 20 or so years, where people have moved from countryside to cities, not least to the greater area of Stockholm. With this, MSB implies that an increased intensity in population equals increased vulnerabilities as well. Supervision of the stock of shelters over the past 20 years has been done at a low level, and according to MSB the abilities of the remaining shelters could be feared to have deteriorated. When it comes to being able to enable the use of these shelters there is not of today any specifically trained personnel or organisation in charge of this, as had existed previously in the form of an organisation with personnel that had been educated within civil duty.
25 For a civil defense suited to current conditions MSB states that an adequate physical protection, which defense shelters are a part of, for citizens are still an important part in a modern civil defense (MSB, 2017). Though the necessity of underground shelters is not as high as during the height of the cold war MSB deems that they do serve a purpose in the modern day for areas of strategic importance for the Swedish military. With the modern threat scenario an organisation and preparedness to prepare shelters in case they need to be used must be developed together with an expanded supervision of shelters. To restore current shelters and build around 50 000 new ones the coming 10 years MSB assesses that it would cost around 200 million SEK per year, which seems to be somewhat of an understatement in regard to that the city of Stockholm calculated that renovating four of its shelters used as parking garages would cost around 1,2 billion SEK (Fastighetsnämnden, 2019). If such an extensive refurbishment of Sweden’s shelters is to be implemented MSB suggests that some of MSB’s tasks need to be allocated to first and foremost the municipal level (MSB, 2017). A modern readiness within civil defense according to MSB (2017) is intrinsically interwoven with the tendencies and change in the security policies in our world today, and that since Sweden last had a developed civil defense the society has gone through large changes that change the prerequisites for an once again built up civil defense. As has been stated before the security tensions in Sweden’s immediate area have changed in recent years, today’s analysis of political security tensions is that they tend to change at a rather fast pace and today’s analysis can be outdated in just a couple of years (Ibid.). This in turn, implies that an unseen chain of events could lead to dire consequences with consequences affecting Sweden’s population. The technical development within the military is one of these major changes that differs from the time when Sweden had a fully built up civil defense. Nowadays weapon systems can hit a target with exact precision and a decreased time of warning for the one being attacked that conventional war with ground troops could be seen as a slighter reduced risk in the event of war or an attack on Sweden. These technical developments lead to, in MSB’s mind, that qualified and updated considerations to the protection of citizens within civil defense is needed. MSB expresses that Sweden’s security is built together with others. They single out Finland as a country with specific importance to tie bilateral connections within the scope of civil defense. Finland, on the contrary from Sweden has kept up their civil defense whereas Sweden more or less discontinued its civil defense in the beginning of the 2000’s. Sweden can
26 learn valuable lessons and experiences from Finland’s preserved civil defense. Finland has to this day regulations that states that if a property owner builds constructions larger than 600 sqm they must include shelters. (MSB, 2017). 4.3 Future Shelters The way forward for Sweden’s civil defense and the need for physical protection for the citizens reported by MSB (2017) must take into account short-term perspectives that could lead to measures taken ‘today’, where MSB mentions that the planning of a refurbishment of Sweden’s total defense is too long-term and not guiding for civil protection. As stated before with the development of more long-range weapons with higher precision, protection for civilians at geographical areas are of high importance, in Sweden this is among others; the greater area of Stockholm, the Nordic cap and the inlet of the Baltic Sea. For such an adequate physical protection of civilians in these geographical areas the central part is defense shelters, as a way forward for shelters MSB proposes the following: Firstly, the stock of shelters in Sweden is of such an age and character that they are in need of renovation and modernisation. MSB has the position that the current assets of shelters should be preserved to a great extent, but at the same time opens up for interpretation when they state they should be preserved in regards to costs, needs and opposing interests (Ibid.) Secondly, an analysis of the current needs for the Swedish shelter system does not exist today. MSB opines that such an analysis would point at that an adaptation to make the shelters up to date will consist of extensive work and high costs on both state and municipal level (Ibid.). For public- and private property owners, as well as the responsible committees in municipalities, it is in their interest to get a clarification of the shelter system and its future. The aforementioned larger population shelters pose a challenge in terms of adaptation and costs for modernisation. Thirdly, threat scenarios might change at a fast pace which also signifies that geographically interesting areas for the military can change. MSB here points at the high cost for building new shelters, putting demands on the long-term planning and specific competences connected to constructing new shelters (Ibid.). The cost for a new shelter is calculated to cost around 10.000 SEK per shelter place for one person, as normal shelters often have places for at least 100 civilians, the final cost for a shelter would then land around 1 million SEK (Ibid.). Compared to constructing new shelters, the cost of managing the current shelter system is
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