AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS at Spanish Met Agency
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
AEMET- γSREPS
Convection-permitting LAM-EPS at
Spanish Met Agency
2019 ALADIN/HIRLAM Joint 29th Workshop All-Stall Meeting MADRID
AEMET γSREPS Predictability Group
Alfons Callado, Pau Escribà, David Quintero, Mauri Martínez
Maria Rosa Pons (EPSgrams collaboration), David Gil (WEB collaboration)
Carlos Santos (consultant), José Antonio García-Moya (retired)
MÉTÉOFrance
François Bouttier (AROME-EPS verification collaboration)
Overview • Who are we ? AEMET predictability group • What is AEMET-γSREPS? • And why is multi-boundary multi-NWP LAM-EPS ? • Designing AEMET-γSREPS • A taste of verification: • Objective and subjective • γSREPS in operations phase test: • Running and forecasters web page • Foreseeable developments
Who are we ?
AEMET-γSREPS Predictability group
• Since 2002 an small core group working on Limited Area (LAM) Ensemble Prediction
Systems (EPS) depending on Research Department
• Members of HIRLAM-HarmonEPS and involved in several projects: EUMETNET
SRNWP EPS 2019-2023, PreFlexMS, COASTEPS, etc., and collaborations on EPSs with
IPMA-AEMET, AROME-EPS MétéoFrance, ALARO people, etc.
Alfons Callado γSREPS operational development
José Antonio García-Moya
(retired on May 2018)
BCs and experiments
on all aspects of EPS Mauri Martínez
(CLARITY project)
γSREPS support
Pau Escribà XXXXX XXXX
Assimilation Looking for and verification
LETKF a new fighter !!!
Mariona Pons
(collaboration)
David Quintero
Aeronautic products
machine learning AEROgrams
and γSREPS support
David Gil (collaboration) web page
What is AEMET- γSREPS ?
AEMET-γSREPS system
• 20-members non-hydrostatic convection-permitting LAM-EPS
• Since April 2016 daily running at 00/12 UTC up to 48 hours (2018)
• 3 DOMAINS: IBERIA_2.5, CANARIAS_2.5 and LIVINGSTON_2.5 (Antarctica)
Multi-BCs ECMWF / IFS NCEP / GFS MF / ARPÈGE JMA / GSM CMC / GEM
Multi-NWP
HARMONIE-AROME 12 members
At 00UTC
Only during
At 00UTC
Spain Antarctic campaign
HARMONIE-ALARO
1st December - 31st march
WRF
ARW
NMMB
AEMET-γSREPS
• Developing a convection-permitting LAM-EPS
• 3 sources of uncertainties
1 2 3
INITIAL BOUNDARY MODEL
CONDITIONS CONDITIONS ERROR
~Synoptic uncertainty ~Mesoscale uncertainty
2019
Assimilation 25 members
LETKF GEM-LAM
or 3DVAR EDA HH+24 HH+48
HH+00
Initial conditions and Multi-BCs •Multi-model
•ECMWF – IFS •HARMONIE-AROME
•NCEP – GFS •HARMONIE-ALARO
•MétéoFrance – ARPÈGE •WRF-ARW (NCAR)
•CMC – GEM (Canadian) •NMMB (NCEP)
•JMA - GSM (Japanese)
Why is AEMET-γSREPS multi-boundaries and multi-model ?
Multi-boundaries and multi-model γSREPS
• Why ?
• Because it holds the better LAM-EPS we can offer to our
forecasters especially for convection uncertainty
• Better spread-skill relationship
T2m
verifications
Multi-BCs is
Multi-model is
better than any
better than
SLAF and
multi-physics
even better than and SPPT
ECMWF-EPS as
BCS
Designing AEMET-γSREPS
Summary of models in γSREPS:
4 NWP MODELS
NWP models’ settings
HARMONIEs WRF-ARW NMMB
AROME physics ARW dynamical core
NMM dynamical core
ALARO physics X
66 72 sigma (ETA)
hydrostatic-pressure levels up X
66 72 Hybrid sigma-
65 Hybrid sigma- to 40 hPa [where it is 64 pressure up to 40 hPa
pressure vertical HARMONIE vertical level] 5.625 s time step
levels
12 s time step
60 s time step
Lambert Conformal Conic projection: lon -2.5º / Rotated lon-lat B-grid:
lat 40.0º centre lon -2.5º / lat 40.0º centre
565 * 469 grid-points 568 * 472 grid-points
Calling radiation every 15 minutes
8 LBC relaxation points around grid area
It has been intended to integrate both NWP models with the closer possible settings in order to
be the comparison the more fairly possible.A taste of
verification
The most
recent
verifications
OBJECTIVEγSREPS versus ECMWF EPS
• Recent result for a coming paper about HarmonEPS
system: review of HIRLAM EPSs. Comparison of
12AccPcp for 00 and 12 cycles of November 2018
γSREPS has a very good Spread Skill Relationship
γSREPS
ECMWF
EPS
EPS mean RMSE lower (to H+30) for γSREPS
even with the spatial double penalty!
Spread
ECMWF EPS is under-dispersive in short-range
em RMSEγSREPS versus AROME EPS
• MétéoFrance collaboration: Thanks to
François Bouttier
• Recent results for AROME EPS (MétéoFrance)
verification
and γSREPS (AEMET) intercomparison
verification
Common area
Two periods:
1st - 31st May 2018 (quite
rainy month)
8th – 16th October 2018
(Leslie time, very
convective period)High resolution LAM-EPS
on Europe
NWP Resolution / N. ICs LBC Model
Area / MBR Assimilation conditions error
Range
AEMET- AROME + 2,5 km x 65/72 20 5 Global NWP 5 Global NWP Multi-model
ALARO + ~1400x1200 km ¿LETKF? ¿+SPPT?
γSREPS WRF + HH+48 ¿3DVAR EDA?
NMMB
MetCoOp EPS HARMONIE- 2,5 km x 64 lev 10 NMC 3DVAR SLAF from ECMWF- ¿Surf.Perturb.?
AROME ~1900x2400 km control IFS deterministic ¿SPPT?
MEPS HH+36 Surf.Ass. All 9 km
members
AROME-EPS AROME 2,5 km x 90 levs 12 3DVAR EDA PEARP (cluster) SPPT
~1900-2000km 10 km +Surf.Perturb.
MétéoFrance
HH+45
COSMO-DE- COSMO 2,8 km 20 KENDA (LETKF) ICON-EPS Multi-parameter
~1200x1300 km + Sto.Pert. 20 km (fixed)
EPS SoilMoisture +
HH+27
SST
DWD HH+45
COSMO-E COSMO Quite different
2,2 Km x 60 lev
21 LAM-EPS
KENDA (LETKF) ECMWF-EPS SPPT
METEOSWISS
Morekmdifficult to
~1300x850 interpret18 km
40 mbr.
HH+120
(COSMO-IT-EPS)
verification results
MOGREPS UK UM 2,2 km x 70 levs 12 UKV analysis MOGREPS-G RP
~1600-1650 km Stochastic
HH+54 multi-
parametersγSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
Bias / em RMSE François Bouttier
T2m / member
Expected AROME-
RMSE
EPS with a
verification
What is the role of the
assimilation to be number of members?
AROME-EPS γSREPSbetter during
γSREPS 1st 12 members
hours than γSREPS
1st - 31st May 2018 8 – 16 October 2018
th th
1st hours AROME-EPS > γSREPS Later AROME-EPS ≈ γSREPSγSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
Spread / Skill François Bouttier
T2m + ratio
verification
Take into account that
AROME-EPS γSREPS γSREPS
spread 12 members
+ errobs > classical
spread
1st - 31st May 2018 -------------
¿ Overdispersive
OR
underdispersive ?
Spread γSREPS > AROME-EPS But ¿γSREPS >< AROME-EPS?γSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
François Bouttier
T2m CRPS score verification
AROME-EPS γSREPS γSREPS 12 members
1st - 31st May 2018 8th – 16th October 2018
May γSREPS > AROME-EPS October γSREPS ≈ AROME-EPSγSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
François Bouttier
T2m > 13ºC ROC area verification
AROME-EPS γSREPS γSREPS 12 members
1st - 31st May 2018 8th – 16th October 2018
γSREPS > ≈ AROME-EPSγSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
François Bouttier
RH2m CRPS score verification
AROME-EPS γSREPS γSREPS 12 members
1st - 31st May 2018 8th – 16th October 2018
May γSREPS > AROME-EPS October γSREPS ≈ AROME-EPSγSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
François Bouttier
U10m CRPS score verification
AROME-EPS γSREPS γSREPS 12 members
1st - 31st May 2018 8th – 16th October 2018
γSREPSγSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
François Bouttier
U10m > 20km/h ROC area verification
AROME-EPS γSREPS γSREPS 12 members
1st - 31st May 2018 8th – 16th October 2018
γSREPS >> AROME-EPSγSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
François Bouttier
AccPcp 3h CRPS score verification
AROME-EPS γSREPS γSREPS 12 members
1st - 31st May 2018 8th – 16th October 2018
May γSREPS > ≈ AROME-EPS October γSREPS ≈ AROME-EPSγSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
François Bouttier
AccPcp > 6mm/3h ROC area verification
AROME-EPS γSREPS γSREPS 12 members
1st - 31st May 2018 8th – 16th October 2018
May γSREPS > ≈ AROME-EPS October γSREPS ≈< AROME-EPSγSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
François Bouttier
AccPcp > 6mm/3h Reliability verification
AROME-EPS γSREPS γSREPS 12 members
1st - 31st May 2018 8th – 16th October 2018
May γSREPS > ≈ AROME-EPS October γSREPS ≈ AROME-EPSγSREPS versus AROME EPS
Thanks to
François Bouttier
verification
AccPcp > 6mm/3h Economic value
AROME-EPS γSREPS γSREPS 12 members
1st - 31st May 2018 8th – 16th October 2018
May γSREPS > AROME-EPS October γSREPS < AROME-EPSVerification results from the point of
view of γSREPS
• We have a good LAM-EPS in the current state of
art of LAM-EPS, but with room to improve
• We penalise the 1st hours because we have not
assimilation, but no so much
• We would like to have a little better results on the very
convective and uncertain period of October organised
convection and high precipitation events are our goals
MétéoFrance AROME-EPS and AEMET-γSREPS
future intercomparison
• Longer periods to verify: 3-months
Better for high thresholds
• More parameters
• Bigger domain for γSREPS in 2020 Bigger common areaA taste of
verification In what
forecasters
are more
interested !!!
SUBJECTIVEQualitative verification results
γSREPS RADAR+raingauges HarmonEPS+LETKF
Stratiform precipitation
γSREPS RADAR+raingauges HarmonEPS+LETKF
Convective precipitationMaresme
case study:
low predictability
http://meteo.uib.eu/coasteps/
γγSREPS
SREPS max
PROBAccPcp
HARMONIE> 38
40
5mm
AEMET-γSREPS
From ECMWF BCs not thunderstorm is developed !!!γSREPS nearly
operational
TEST PHASE AT
AEMET FORECASTING
OFFICESγSREPS at ECMWF Cray XC40
• EcFlow suite management
• 00 and 12 UTC cycle over IBERIA_2.5 domain
Downloading
VeRiFication
NCEP / GFS
SUBJECTIVE BCs
UPP
Member Running
plots
20Post-processor
NCEP Unified NMMB
members +
Finishing
NCEP/GFS
EPS
!!!BCs
Probabilistic
HARMONIE
HARMONIE
AROME WEB
ALARO products
Cray XC40 ECMWF
++ generation
ECMWF/IFS BCs
ECMWF/IFS BCs
and
disseminationγSREPS forecasters’ web site • Available for AEMET forecasting offices since November 2018 • Period test before fully operational until 30th September • Around 40 products with more than 3500 plots
Forecasters ask and collaborate
in new EPS products
• “spaguetti plot” with all members Looking for
spatial uncertainty
• Maximum
precipitation
and wind gust
(IPMA)
They look for
the worst
scenario
• + into a
radius
ItI isamgoing
working
to rain,
withbut
a variable
we
are
radius
not based
sure where
on spread
!!! !!!
Oriol
Sergi
Ripoll
GonzálezGuide of Web AEMET- Web AEMET-γSREPS products’
γSREPS products suggestions sheet
Expecting forecasters
feedback about better
web page and
new/better
products !!!AEMET-γSREPS subjective validation sheet
Expecting forecasters
feedback about
performance in
different
meteorological
situations !!!γSREPS current and future developments
Foreseeable future work
plan: 2019-2020
γSREPS developments:
• Assimilation: LETKF ? 3DVAR EDA ? [Pau ]
• GNSS+RADAR assimilation [Jana Sánchez]
• 25 members Including the 5th mesoscale
convection-permitting NWP model:
¿Canadian GEM-LAM? [Alfons]
• Additional 15’ stream output for high social-
economic variables’ impact as T2m and UV10mForeseeable future work
plan: 2019-2020
• γSREPS IBERIA/CANARIAS/LIVINGSTON 00
UTC at ECMWF systems:
• Time critical application level 2 [ Alfons + Pau]
• IBERIAxxm_2.5 bigger domain (~better organized
convection)
• Up to 72 hours for end-users
More HPCF resources 2020 Bologna
2021 AEMET
NWP in 32 bits opportunity
• γSREPS CANARIAS_2.5 12 UTC at AEMET
systems (BULL-ATOS):
• Currently under implementation [ Alfons + David Q.]
• ¿ “explotación” future management ? [ Sergio Cotera]Foreseeable future work
plan: 2019-2020
• Moving from pressure levels ARPÈGE BCs
[MFPL] to model levels [MFML]
• Waiting for T2m, RH2m and U/V10m [MF-IPMA] [
Thanks to Maria Monteiro / Claude Fisher]
• WRF-ARW update from 3.6.0 to 4.* version
• From sigma vertical levels to hybrid ones
• HARMONIEs updates: AROME and ALARO [Pau]
• HARMONIE version 40h111 cy40t1bf7 ALARO
• Better ALARO implementation [ Thanks to Neva Pristov]
• Possible contribution Multi-physics again into
HarmonEPS
• Auto-verification each month with HARP v3
[Mauri] [ Thanks to Andrew Singleton and HARP team]
• BCs and NWP sub-ensembles verificationForeseeable future work
plan: 2019-2020
• γSREPS user “products” developments:
Barcelona airport
• Probabilistic forecast products:
• Forecasters WEB page [David G., see presentation]
− With one click:
– EPSgrams
– Probabilistic vertical profiles [ATAP, Álvaro Subías]
– Probabilistic cross-sections
− Case studies web tab
• PANEL integration [ ATAP Marcos G.]
• Specific socio-economic impact products:
• AEROgrams ENAIRE [ Mariona Pons & Alejandro Méndez]
− ¿ Wind shear products ?
• AIRPORTS fog/mist/visibility [ Sergio Fernández / SRNWP-EPS]
Ernest
• Wind/solar renewable energy sector (e.g. PreFlexMS):
Werner
− E.g. probabilistic solar GHI + DNI for REE [¿ Mauri ?]
• Calibrated T2m/W10m/AccPcp for cities/villages [ SRNWP-EPS]Thank you for your attention !!!
acalladop@aemet.es pescribaa@aemet.es
Any question will be welcome
2019 ALADIN/HIRLAM Joint 29th Workshop All-Stall Meeting MADRID
AEMET γSREPS Predictability Group
Alfons Callado, Pau Escribà, David Quintero, Mauri Martínez
Maria Rosa Pons (EPSgrams collaboration), David Gil (WEB collaboration)
Carlos Santos (consultant), José Antonio García-Moya (retired)
MÉTÉOFrance
François Bouttier (AROME-EPS verification collaboration)You can also read
