ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDIA'S REAL ESTATE SECTOR - A CREDAI-CBRE INITIATIVE

 
ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDIA'S REAL ESTATE SECTOR - A CREDAI-CBRE INITIATIVE
ASSESSING
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDIA’S
REAL ESTATE SECTOR

A CREDAI-CBRE INITIATIVE
ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDIA'S REAL ESTATE SECTOR - A CREDAI-CBRE INITIATIVE
ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDIA'S REAL ESTATE SECTOR - A CREDAI-CBRE INITIATIVE
Contents
Executive Summary                                                                  1

01
INTRODUCTION

1.1   Growth Machine: India’s Economy                                              3
1.2   Construction Behemoth: India’s Real Estate Sector                            5
1.3   A Billion People Opportunity                                                 6
1.4   Opportunities and Challenges Facing the Sector                               7
1.5   Challenges and Government Intervention                                       8

02
ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT

2.1   Key Findings                                                                 9
2.2   Overall Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector in the year 2013          10
2.3   Expanding Economic Footprint of the Sector by 2025                          11
2.4   Key Recommendations to Encourage the Real Estate Sector                     12

03
CONCLUSION                                                                        14

About CREDAI                                                                     15

About CBRE                                                                        16

                              Assessing the Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector
ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDIA'S REAL ESTATE SECTOR - A CREDAI-CBRE INITIATIVE
1         Executive Summary
          A decade of economic renaissance…

          India has witnessed strong economic growth in the last decade primarily on account of economic reforms
          that ushered in an era of liberalisation and provided for increased participation from the private sector.
          Opening up of the economy for investment was instrumental in spurring broad-based fundamental
          growth across various sectors, thereby leading to accelerated consumption and heightened investment
          activity in the economy. This growth has percolated to the construction and real estate industry as well,
          which is a conduit for growth in a large number of ancillary industries in the country.

          …drives real estate and construction industry…

          The Indian real estate and construction industry is an integral part of the economy and is responsible
          for a considerable part of its development investment. The industry plays an important role in the
          development of the country’s infrastructure base and is one of the largest generators of economic
          activity. The construction sector has strong linkages with various industries such as cement, steel,
          chemicals, paints, tiles, fixtures and fittings, etc. The real estate sector is an important component of the
          construction industry and serves as a propeller for private sector involvement in growth of the country’s
          built environment.

          …churning significant economic opportunities in the short term

          The real estate sector has a total supply pipeline of close to 3.6 billion sq ft lined up for completion in
          the year 2013. About 98% of this is concentrated in the residential segment, including organised as well
          as unorganised space. The rest includes organised commercial office and retail space in leading cities
          such as the National Capital Region, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, etc. The total economic footprint
          generated by the construction of this real estate pipeline can be gauged from the fact that it will require
          a total investment of about INR 254,000 crores, will help generate revenues worth INR 370,000 crores,
          and provide employment to about 7.6 million people across the country. The total contribution of the
          real estate sector (incorporating the sub-sectors highlighted in the report) in the gross domestic product
          of the country has been estimated to be about 6.3% in 2013.

          …and driving growth in the long term...

          Long term prospects appear highly positive for the sector, with a potential increase in completed space
          from 3.6 billion sq ft in 2013 to about 8.2 billion sq ft in 2025. This will generate significant employment
          opportunities, with annual employment expected to increase from 7.6 million in 2013 to almost 17
          million in 2025, thereby providing substantial socio-economic opportunities for growth in the country.
          Consequently, the contribution of the real estate sector to the economy is also expected to more than
          double from 6.3% in 2013 to almost 13% in 2025.

          However, this projected expansion in the economic footprint of the sector is subject to an effective
          utilisation of the potential opportunities for growth and implementation of relevant policy measures to
          resolve bottlenecks bothering the sector.

    A CREDAI and CBRE Initiative
ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDIA'S REAL ESTATE SECTOR - A CREDAI-CBRE INITIATIVE
2

                                                                                                           

              The real estate sector has a share of
           approximately 6.3% in the GDP; will employ
                  almost 7.6 million people in
                         the year 2013.

Time for government support measures…

These should include addressing supply constraints such as inadequate land availability in most of our
urban centres, complex acquisition process and restricted development control regulations hindering
higher density developments. Other key measures include streamlining the approval process for
construction, permitting new sources of real estate funding such as investment trusts, easing interest
rates, promoting private sector participation in building mass housing schemes, renewal of our built
environment by regular infrastructure upgradation and support to export promotion regimes such as the
Special Economic Zones.

An effective implementation of these policy recommendations will definitely accelerate growth in the
sector and also augment the share of organised real estate in the country’s built environment.

                                                 Assessing the Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector
ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDIA'S REAL ESTATE SECTOR - A CREDAI-CBRE INITIATIVE
3



          01
          INTRODUCTION
          1.1 Growth Machine: India’s Economy

          India introduced large scale economic reforms in the year 1991 and implemented structural changes
          across sectors such as services, financial and industrial. Led by liberalization of the economic processes
          along with broad-based fundamental growth across various sectors, India’s economy has exhibited
          healthy growth rates in the last decade. The average growth rate registered over the period 2000 -
          2012 was about 7.2%1. This growth has been on the back of increased consumption, higher investment
          activity as well as productivity gains. Surviving on domestic demand and enhancing consumption levels,
          the manufacturing and services industries have also posted healthy growth levels in the past few years.

          Sustained economic growth in the last decade has not only propelled India into the league of ‘leading
          emerging economies’ alongside China, Brazil and Russia, but also implied that the country is making
          an important contribution to the overall increase in the global economic output.

                                20                                                                         India’s Economic Growth over the years

                                15

                                                                                                                                                             9.5           9.6            9.3
                                10                                                                                             8.5                                                                                     8.0              8.5
                                                         6.5                                                                                  6.9                                                      6.8                                            6.5
                                                                      6.1                         5.8                                                                                                                                                                                5.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     5.0
              Growth Rate (%)

                                         4.8                                        4.4                        4.0
                                  5

                                  0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2012 - 2013*

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2013 - 2014*
                                         1997 - 1998

                                                       1998 - 1999

                                                                     1999 - 2000

                                                                                   2000 - 2001

                                                                                                 2001 - 2002

                                                                                                               2002 - 2003

                                                                                                                               2003 - 2004

                                                                                                                                             2004 - 2005

                                                                                                                                                             2005 - 2006

                                                                                                                                                                           2006 - 2007

                                                                                                                                                                                         2007 - 2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                       2008 - 2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2009 - 2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2010 - 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2011 - 2012

                                 -5

                                                                                   India                              Brazil                               China                             Japan                                   European Union
                                -10

                                 Source: MOSPI, Oxford Economics, IMF Estimates
                                 *Estimates

    A CREDAI and CBRE Initiative                                                                                                                                                                              1.     Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)
4

                                                                                                                                                                

However, over the past two years stagnating global economic conditions have led to a slowdown in the
country’s growth. GDP growth continued to inch downwards in 2012-13, declining to 5% during the
finacial year, compared to 6.5% during the previous year2. This was accompanied by persistently high
inflation and declining industrial growth. However, as a positive step towards dispelling the general
feeling of gloom, the government has continued to maintain its momentum of introducing structural
reforms in the economy. Foreign direct investment in sectors such as multi brand retail, single brand
retail, banking, pension and broadcasting was approved by the union cabinet, while a new Company’s
Bill was recently approved by the lower house of the parliament; the government is also working on
deregulating fuel prices and reducing the subsidy burden on the economy, thereby focussing upon fiscal
prudence, controlling inflation and propelling India back into the high growth trajectory.

                                                                           Foreign Investment Inflows in India
                     50                                                                                                                    46.84
                                                                                              41.87
                     40                                                                                  37.74
                                                                          34.83                                                                       33.91
                                                                                                                                 32.9
                     30
                                                  22.82
                     20
       USD Billion

                            8.96
                     10

                      0
                           2005 -06              2006 -07               2007 -08            2008 -09     2009 -10              2010 -11   2011 -12   2012-13*
                     -10

                     -20

                                                                                    FDI inflows                  FII inflows
       Source: Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion * till February 2013

The industry has reacted positively to this wave of economic reforms, supporting the government in
its drive towards reinstating economic growth. The real estate and construction industry has been
particularly enthusiastic about relaxed guidelines on foreign investment in sectors such as retail and
low cost housing. While these reforms might have a moderate impact on the country’s immediate
growth prospects, the industry expects that in the long run, these steps will support in creating a positive
sentiment amongst global investors for positioning India as a key investment destination.

2.   Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)                                  Assessing the Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector
1.2 Construction Behemoth: India’s Real Estate Sector
5
          The Indian real estate sector, with backward and forward linkages to approximately 250 ancillary
          industries, has been making rapid strides in recent times and has emerged as one of the most important
          contributors to the Indian economy. The sector continues its metamorphosis from being largely fragmented
          and unorganized to become as structured and organized as its peers in developed economies across
         the globe. The growing prominence of India in the global scenario has had a positive impact leading
          to increased expectations and responsibilities on this sector.

                                                                            Foreign Direct Investment in Construction Development

                               50                                                                                                                                       46.84                           9%
                               45                                                                         41.87                                                                                         8%
                               40                                                                                             37.74                                                                     7%
                                                                                     34.83
                               35                                                                                                                   32.90                                               6%

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Share (%)
                               30
               USD Billion

                                                                                                                                                                                      24.65             5%
                               25                               22.82
                                                                                                                                                                                                        4%
                               20
                                                                                                                                                                                                        3%
                               15
                               10           8.96                                                                                                                                                        2%
                                 5                                                                                                                                                                      1%
                                 0                                                                                                                                                                      0%
                                          2005 - 06           2006 - 07            2007 - 08            2008 - 09             2009 - 10            2010 - 11           2011 - 12    2012 - 13*
                                                      Total FDI Inflow (USD billion)                                              Share of FDI Equity Inflows in Construction Development
                             Source: Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion * till February 2013
                             Construction Development includes townships, housing, built-up infrastructure and construction-development projects

          The real estate sector has partially risen from the liquidity crisis it was entrenched in 2009, when bad
          debts and declining demand led to a dip in the market. However, post 2009 the sector witnessed
          recovery in investment and construction activity. An indicator of this recovery is the level of construction
          activity witnessed in the real estate space in the country from 2010 to 2012; a total of 200 million sq ft
          of investment grade commercial office, retail and residential real estate space is lined up for completion
          across the seven cities of National Capital Region (NCR), Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad,
          Pune and Kolkata in 20133. The sector has also emerged as the most prominent investment option for
          the country’s urban households, taking priority over gold, fixed deposits and stock exchange trading.
          The following graph highlights the prominence of real estate as an investment asset for an average
          urban household in India4.

                                                           Segmentation of Investment by Urban Households in India

                                                                                2% 2%
                                                                                                                                                       Real Estate
                                                                                             3%
                                                                                3%                                                                     Gold and Arts
                                                                           4%
                                                                                                                    30%                                Bank deposit

                                                                                                                                                       Insurance and Pension
                                                                   10%
                                                                                                                                                       Post Office

                                                                                                                                                       Mutual Funds

                                                                                                                                                       Consumption

                                                                         19%                                                                           Equities

                                                                                                               27%                                     Others

                                                           Source: Reserve Bank of India, National Council for Applied Economic Research

                                                                                                                                                                                                        3. CBRE Research
    A CREDAI and CBRE Initiative                                                                                                                                                            4.   RBI/NCAER Household Survey
The synergies between the construction and the real estate sector cannot be ignored as real estate
accounts for a significant portion of the construction segment. India is expected to become the third                                                       6
largest construction market in the world by 2020, with the real estate sector expected to reach a size
of USD 180 billion5. Increased activity across various industry verticals combined with rising domestic
consumption of goods/services have contributed towards increased demand levels for real estate across
segments. In addition, an untapped housing demand (estimated housing shortage of 18.4 million
units by 2012)6, has also provided developers with an opportunity of catering to buyers across the                                                          
affordability spectrum in multiple cities and towns.

1.3 A Billion People Opportunity

The major demand drivers for India’s real estate market have been sustained economic growth, large
scale urbanisation, expansion in India’s services industry, increased disposable income levels of the
middle class consumers, tax savings on home mortgage products as well as real estate being considered
a conventional class of investment asset. This has been further supplemented with easier and flexible
financing options from increasing number of private players in this field. One can assess the scale of the
sector from the following highlights.

                                           The Spread of Organized Real Estate Space in
                       400
                                                 Leading Cities of India in 20127

                       350

                       300

                       250
         Million sft

                       200

                       150

                       100

                        50

                         0
                                     NCR   Mumbai        Bangalore        Chennai        Hyderabad          Pune           Kolkata
             Source: CBRE Research                  Residential          Retail             Office

• The investment grade commercial office real estate in the country has grown tenfold from about 37
  million sq ft in 2003 to about 370 million sq ft in 2012, with another 100 million sq ft lined up to be
  completed till 2015. This growth was spread across leading cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore,
  Chennai, Kolkata, Pune and Hyderabad. However, substantial opportunity lies for further growth
  as the commercial office real estate space in major commercial hubs in India is still lesser when
  compared to other developed cities in the world

• The total size of organised retail real estate in the country has also increased tenfold from about 5
  million sq ft in 2003 to about 52 million sq ft in 2012, with another 15-20 million sq ft lined up to
  be completed till 2015. This growth has largely been concentrated in prominent retail hubs such
  as Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Kolkata, Pune and Hyderabad; more than 200 shopping
  malls have mushroomed in these leading cities, gradually pushing the share of organised retail in
  the country upwards

• More than 150 million sq ft of investment grade residential real estate space was launched by private
  developers in the country in 2012. This was instrumental in driving construction activity across cities
  such as Delhi, Gurgaon, Mumbai and Bangalore

• The sector attracted foreign direct investment worth USD 11.5 bn (INR 62,000 crores) from April
  2005 – February 2013; this was about 4% of the overall FDI across all sectors during the same
  period8. The sector received total private equity inflows of about USD 15.7 bn (INR 80,000 cr) from
  2005 – 2012. This was about 24% of the entire private equity investments across all sectors of the
  economy9

5.   Oxford Economics and Global Construction Perspectives
6.   The estimates as per the National Urban Housing and Habitat Policy 2007 were apprx. 26.53 mn
     units. Recent government estimates put housing shortage for 2012 at 18.4 mn units
7.   All real estate numbers in this section are from CBRE Research
8.   Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion
9.   Grant Thornton                                                                               Assessing the Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector
1.4 Opportunities and Challenges Facing the Sector
7
          India’s real estate sector has a strong growth potential in the coming decade, as it thrives upon
          tremendous growth opportunities linked with the country’s development cycle and socio-economic
          transformation. Few of these opportunities have been discussed below.

         Growing Urbanization
          Urbanisation in India has been increasing at an unprecedented rate, with almost 71 million people
          added to the urban population from 2001 to 2011. At this rate, close to 534 million people (greater
          than the combined population of the United States, Russia and France) will live in Indian cities by 2026.
          This offers tremendous opportunities for real estate development, particularly for housing.

                                                                              Urbanization to Fuel Housing Demand in Leading Cities

                                                      600                                                                                                          38.2             45%
                                                                                                                            32.2                                                    40%
                                                      500                                          30.0
                                                                 27.8                                                                                                               35%
                Population in Millions

                                                      400                                                                                                                           30%
                                                                                                                                                                                    25%
                                                      300
                                                                                                                                                                  534               20%
                                                      200                                                                   432                                                     15%
                                                                                                  357
                                                                 286                                                                                                                10%
                                                      100
                                                                                                                                                                                    5%
                                                        0                                                                                                                           0%
                                                                2001                             2011                      2021                               2026
                                                                              Urban population                      Urban population as a % of total population

                 Source: Population Projections for India, 2001-26, Registrar General of India

          Growth in Household Income
          India’s household income is expected to increase by an average INR 60,000 per annum over a period
          of six years from 2009-10 to 2015-16. This is expected to fuel consumption and be a support base for
          growth in India’s organised retail industry.

          Industry research indicates that out of the top five priorities of household spending, three categories
          belong to the retail segment. Also, as per the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), close to
          30% of a total household’s income is spent on retail categories such as grocery, apparel and food &
          beverage. The most noticeable increase in income is likely to be observed in urban areas, which will
          result into further investment in the development of organised retail real estate.

                                                                                Increase in Household Income to Fuel Retail Spend
                                                      400,000
                                                                                                                      350,000
                    Household Income in India (INR)

                                                      350,000
                                                      300,000                                                                                                             290,000
                                                                                                          250,000
                                                      250,000
                                                      200,000
                                                                                  156,000                                                                  160,000
                                                      150,000      123,000
                                                      100,000
                                                       50,000
                                                            0
                                                                       2009           2015                2009           2015                              2009            2015

                      Source: NCAER 2012
                                                                              Rural                              Urban                                             Urban
                                                                                                                                                                  All India

          Growth in Information Technology Industry/Services Industry
          Burgeoning growth in the information technology and outsourcing industry is a major demand driver for
          the growth of commercial real estate space in the country. This sector is the biggest office occupier in
          the country, comprising of approximately 70% of the entire office stock (including IT parks and special
          economic zones).

          As the IT industry grows in size, the demand for commercial real estate is likely to increase. This provides
          a significant opportunity for real estate developers to step in to meet the requirements of this sector.

    A CREDAI and CBRE Initiative
Growth in the IT/ITeS Industry to Impact Commercial Real Estate Demand
                                                                                                                   8
                                                                                          7.5
                120                                                               7.1                  8%
                                       6.7                6.5
                       6.4
                                                                                                       7%
                100
                                                                                                       6%
                 80
                                                                                                       5%          
  USD Billion

                 60                                                                                    4%
                                                                                         101
                 40
                                                                                 88                    3%
                                       69                 74
                       63                                                                              2%
                 20
                                                                                                       1%

                  0                                                                                    0%
                      2008            2009               2010                   2011      2012

                                       IT BPO Revenues          Contribution to GDP(%)
  Source: NASSCOM

1.5 Challenges and Government Intervention

Rapid urbanisation has fuelled inflow of massive population from the countryside and smaller towns
into the major cities of the country. In urban India, the population is increasing at a fast pace while
there exists a significant housing shortage. The public sector faces scarcity of resources and has limited
access to modern technology aimed at developing modern real estate at a mass scale within stipulated
timelines. Hence, involvement from the private sector is required to invest in research and development
of new technologies, systems and processes.

While the sector offers ample opportunities for development across verticals, there are certain intrinsic
challenges that hinder growth of the sector. Factors such as high borrowing costs for developers, lack
of institutional funding, liquidity issues and slow (and uneven) development of urban infrastructure are
some of the key challenges facing the sector. Foreign investment is also a critical factor primarily on
account of the capital intensive nature of the sector. While domestic financial institutions have been
willing to lend to developers for real estate development, their borrowing costs are high and regulations
are very stringent. Unlike developed nations, India still does not allow concepts such as real estate
mutual funds and investment trusts. Such challenges limit the sources of funding for the sector, which in
turn restrict private sector involvement in large scale construction activity in the country.

Infrastructure development also plays a pivotal role in unlocking the potential of cities by decongesting
city centres and developing new suburban towns and cities. Increasing population and land paucity
continue to exert pressure on city limits, thereby highlighting the need for a balanced development
of infrastructure. Suburban towns have been mushrooming around key cities due to limited space
availability and high land prices in city centres. Hence, a multi-pronged approach is required that
aims at strengthening the delivery of urban infrastructure and ensure that infrastructure development
precedes real estate development in order to provide for more sustainable and self-sufficient cities. Fast
tracking approvals, execution and completion of urban infrastructure projects will enhance confidence
in private players and will allow for greater private sector participation in real estate development.

Hence, the government has sufficient scope for intervention as the real estate sector faces a number
of challenges that inhibit its performance. In the last few years we have seen the government taking
an active role in facilitating investments into the sector, especially in low income housing, besides
strengthening its resolve at propelling growth in urban as well as rural infrastructure. However, a key
prerequisite for accelerating growth in the sector is recognising it as a formal industry. This would entail
recognition of the scale of economic and employment opportunities generated by the sector, and its
linkage to a large number of ancillary industries. This economic footprint of the real estate sector has
been discussed in the second section of the report.

                                                         Assessing the Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector
02
9



          ASSESSING THE
          ECONOMIC FOOT PRINT
          OF THE SECTOR
          In order to assess the economic opportunities generated by every square feet of estimated real estate
          space constructed in the country, CBRE conducted a broad study of leading construction component
          sectors contributing to the growth in real estate space. The economic footprint of the sector has been
          discussed in the key findings of the study mentioned below.

          2.1 Key Findings

          Key findings of the study have been discussed below.

          Real Estate Pipeline for 201310
          India has a total supply pipeline of close to 3.6 billion sq ft of real estate space to be completed in the
          year 2013. This includes the following segments,

                  a. Approximately 200 million sq ft of organised investment grade commercial office, retail and
                     residential space

                  b. Approximately 3.4 billion sq ft of total urban permanent housing stock in the country for 201311

          Consumption Estimates in Construction Component Sectors
          Growth of the building materials industry is closely linked to real estate development.The estimated
          consumption of certain construction component sectors, basis the supply pipeline lined up in 2013, has
          been provided below.
             Total Estimated Real Estate Supply in 2013                                              3.6 billion sq ft

             Total Consumption of Iron & Steel                                                       22 million Tonnes

             Total Consumption of Cement                                                             140 million Tonnes

             Total Consumption of Bricks                                                             49,000 million bricks

             Total Consumption of Glass                                                              1 million Tonnes

             Total Consumption of Sand                                                               102 million cubic meters

             Total Consumption of Wood                                                               4 million cubic meters
          Source: CBRE Research, CREDAI

                                                     10. The real estate sector considered for this analysis does not include sub sectors such as infrastructure projects organized industrial,
                                                                                                    hospitality, semi-investment grade retail and office space, residential in rural areas, etc.
    A CREDAI and CBRE Initiative                                                                                             11. Calculated basis statistics from the Census of India 2011
10

                                                                                                                                              

Economic Footprint of the Real Estate Sector in the year 2013
The economic opportunities generated by the estimated consumption of the selected construction
component sectors have been provided below.
                                                    Iron &
   Economic Footprint                                                     Cement    Bricks      Glass      Sand        Wood        Others
                                                    Steel

   Potential Revenues
                                                    103,000               78,000    47,000      34,000     15,000      45,000      48,000
   (INR Crores)

   Investment Generated
                                                    87,000                70,000    18,000      4,000      7,000       35,000      33,000
   (INR Crores)

   Direct Employment
                                                    157,000               100,000   1,600,000   2,000      105,000     129,000     350,000
   Generated

   Potential employment generated on the building site during the construction of 3.6 billion sft
                                                                                                                       5,100,000
   in 2013
Source: CBRE Research, CREDAI

2.2 Overall Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector in the year 2013

Assuming industry standards for costs of construction for commercial office, retail and residential assets,
following is a broad estimate of the economic footprint of the real estate construction sector in the year
2013.

   Total Estimated Real Estate Supply (2013)                                                             3.6 billion sq ft

   Total Revenue Potential of Real Estate Construction in 2013                                           INR 370,000 cr
                                                                         12
   Estimated Gross Domestic Product (2013)                                                               INR 5,833,685 cr

   Estimated Contribution of Real Estate to Gross Domestic
                                                                                                         6.3%
   Product in 2013
   Total Employment generated by the sector in 2013                                                      7.6 million people

   Total Investment generated by the sector in 2013                                                      INR 254,000 cr
Source: CBRE Research, CREDAI

12. Estimated using Gross Domestic Product (2011-12) provided by MOSPI              Assessing the Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector
As highlighted above, the real estate sector is expected to contribute approximately 6.3% to the economy
11         in 2013-14. Additionally, this sector is expected to provide employment opportunities to about 7.6
           million people during the same period.

           This compares well with the contribution of other essential sectors such as Information Technology
           (7.5%)13, Steel (2%)14, Electricity, Gas and Water Supply (2%)15, Mining and Quarrying (2%)16 and
          Telecommunications (2%)17.

           2.3 Expanding Economic Footprint of the Sector by 2025

           India’s real estate sector is poised for significant growth in the coming decade as it benefits from
           significant opportunities such as increasing urbanisation, demand for new housing and the expanding
           urban fabric of tier II and tier III cities in the country. In order to understand the positioning of the sector
           in the coming decade and the likely impact that it will have on the economy and employment, CBRE
           arrived at certain broad-based projections for growth and spread of the sector till the year 2025. These
           projections have been discussed in detail below.

           • Growth in Economic Share

                                                   Share of the Real Estate Sector in India’s GDP from 2013 to 2025*

                                                                                      6.3%
                                                                                                                                                                 13%

                                                                     In 2013                                                                In 2025

                                             Source: CBRE Research, CREDAI
                                             *covers organised office, retail, residential, unorganised residential (urban) only

           The economic contribution of the real estate sector is projected to increase significantly during the
           period, from 6.3% in 2013 to almost 13% in 2025. This spiralling of growth can be attributed
           to the significant construction opportunities offered by the housing sector, largely accentuated by the
           intensifying demand for residential space in the expanding urban limits of our cities.

           • Expanding Employment Opportunities

                                                              Potential Employment Opportunities in the Real Estate Sector
                                                                                from 2013 to 2025*
                                        20                                                                                                                                            17.2
                                        18
                                                                                                                                                                          16.2
                                        16                                                                                                                     15.1
                                                                                                                                                   14.1
                                        14                                                                                                  13.1
                                                                                                                                     12.2
                      Million persons

                                        12                                                                                    11.4
                                                                                                                 10.6
                                                                                                     9.9
                                        10        7.6                                   9.2
                                                                           8.6
                                                               7.9
                                         8
                                         6
                                         4
                                         2
                                         0
                                                2013         2014         2015         2016         2017         2018        2019    2020   2021   2022       2023        2024       2025

                         Source: CBRE Research, CREDAI
                         *covers organised office, retail, residential, unorganised residential (urban) only

                                                                                                                                                                                 13. Indian Brand Equity Foundation
                                                                                                                                                                                           14. Secondary Research
                                                                                                                                                   15. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)
                                                                                                                                                   16. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)
     A CREDAI and CBRE Initiative                                                                                                                                                          17. Secondary Research
The real estate and construction sector would continue to remain one of the largest employers in the
economy. Annual employment opportunities generated in the sector are expected to increase by more                                                            12
than 200%, from 7.6 million in 2013 to almost 17.2 million in 2025, offering tremendous
opportunities for socio-economic transformation in our urban centres and supporting the government
in bridging the employment gap in the country more effectively.

• Estimated Supply Pipeline                                                                                                                                  
                                                              Real Estate Supply in India from 2013 to 2025
                                                                             (in billion sq ft)*
                                                                                                                                                8.2
                         9
                         8                                                                                                              7.8
                                                                                                                                 7.2
                         7                                                                                                6.7
                                                                                                                   6.3
                                                                                                            5.8
                         6                                                                            5.5
                                                                                            5.1
                         5                                                      4.7
           Billion sft

                              3.6                                  4.4
                                                      4.1
                         4               3.8

                         3
                         2
                         1
                         0
                             2013        2014        2015         2016         2017         2018     2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   2024   2025

            Source: CBRE Research, CREDAI
            *covers organised office, retail, residential, unorganised residential (urban) only

Increasing urbanisation, demand for new housing, expanding spread of organised real estate and
introduction of new construction technologies are some of the factors that are likely to be a pivot for
the growth of real estate construction activity in the country. The annual real estate supply in India is
expected to increase from about 3.6 billion sq ft in 2013 to about 8.2 billion sq ft in 2025.
Majority of this space is expected to be concentrated in the residential sector, with an underlying thought
that a sustained focus would be provided by the government not only towards bridging the existing
housing shortage in the country, but also towards developing new housing in the expanding urban limits
of our cities (especially the tier II and tier III cities).

2.4 Key Recommendations to Encourage the Real Estate Sector

As stated in the previous section, the economic impact of the real estate sector can expand to almost
13% in the coming decade, provided the government recognises the contribution this sector makes
to the country’s built environment and introduces relevant policy intervention to address impediments
restricting the sector in achieving its complete potential. Following are some key recommendations that
can help spur growth of the sector in the coming years.

Promotion of Affordable Housing
About 85% of India’s housing shortage of 18.4 million units in 2012 was concentrated in the EWS and
LIG sections. In order to bridge this gap, affordable housing schemes should be promoted across the
country, with active participation from the private sector. This will not only fuel construction activity across
the country, but also promote growth in allied industries such as construction materials.

Streamlining the approval process for affordable housing projects, augmenting the supply of land
at affordable prices and subsidising construction costs through investment in innovative construction
technologies are steps that will promote growth in this sector. Additionally, fiscal incentives for the private
sector such as increasing the fixed limit for raising funds through external commercial borrowings from
the present USD 1 billion and extending the interest subvention allowed on low cost housing loans will
continue to stimulate demand for affordable housing projects across the country. Other measures that
can be adopted include increasing allocation of funds for mass housing schemes such as the Indira
Awaas Yojana and the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission, increasing the reach of
micro-finance institutions and setting up of a risk fund to cover risks pertaining to loans provided to the
EWS/LIG sections.

                                                                                                   Assessing the Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector
Easing Supply Bottlenecks
13         India’s rapid urbanisation has fuelled demand for housing and support services across the country.
           However, the urban limits of our cities are often constrained by slow and uneven release of land parcels
           for development. These supply bottlenecks can be resolved through concerted efforts such as permitting
           higher density developments by increasing FSI norms, releasing land parcels for development on a
           sustained basis and encouraging private participation in land aggregation. Recent steps taken by the
          Delhi Development Authority (DDA) to implement a policy of land pooling in new development zones of
           the city, allowing owners to cumulate their land parcels and develop the land jointly with private players
           is an example of efficient management of supply dynamics in our urban centres.

           Streamlining the Approval Process
           The sector has been bogged down by multitude of regulatory approvals which need to be cleared by
           developers to commence construction. Approvals regarding building layouts, ownership, environment
           clearances, structural planning, utilities, amongst others, are time consuming, cumbersome and are
           often delayed. The delays often result into an increase in costs which ultimately trickle down to the
           buyers. Hence, it is important to facilitate policy measures that streamline approval processes (both
           at state as well as at national level), which help in reducing the number of approvals required for real
           estate projects. This can be enabled by establishing regulatory bodies/investment boards to oversee the
           approval process for real estate projects, especially for large scale integrated townships.

           Clarity and Support to Special Economic Zones
           The recent initiative by the government to reduce minimum area restrictions for SEZs is likely to enhance
           developer interest in SEZ projects. However, more needs to be done in this direction, in the form of
           relaxation of the Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) and the Dividend Distribution Tax (DDT) that have made
           SEZs less attractive for developers as well as occupiers. Moreover, clarity should be provided on the
           proposals in the upcoming Direct Tax Code (DTC) which do away with the income tax exemption given
           to SEZs and instead link tax sops to investments.

           Easing of Funding
           New instruments of funding should be permitted for the sector, amongst the most prominent of which
           are the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). REITs could provide an additional exit route for investors
           and enable retail money to be channelized into the sector through a regulated network. The introduction
           of REITs would propel the sector by spurring capital inflows and bringing institutional credibility. Other
           key steps that can be undertaken to promote funding for the sector include expanding the credit limit for
           realty projects from the present 2.8% to as high as 25-30%, reducing borrowing costs for developers
           (especially from banks and non-banking financial companies) and reduce the risk weightage attached
           to the sector. These measures can be further supported if the government provides an infrastructure
           status to real estate projects (particularly large integrated townships). This will help the sector in securing
           long term loans at lower cost, and also avail the tax benefits provided to infrastructure sectors such as
           power and railways.

           Sustained Infrastructure Upgradation
           Infrastructure upgradation is imperative for the spatial spread of real estate in the country. The development
           of peripheral towns in India has largely been led by the private sector with public infrastructure not being
           able to keep pace with development. Hence, for the country’s urban sprawl to flourish, a multi-pronged
           approach is required that aims at strengthening the delivery of urban infrastructure and ensure that
           infrastructure development precedes real estate development in order to provide for more sustainable
           and self-sufficient cities. Fast tracking approvals, execution and completion of urban infrastructure
           projects will instil confidence in private players and will allow for greater private sector participation in
           real estate development.

           Engaging Retail Investors
           Easier investment norms should be provided for end users and investors for attracting investments in
           the sector, especially in residential real estate. Reduced interest rates and decreasing the limit of margin
           money requirement will attract more retail investors towards the sector and help propel real estate
           demand.

     A CREDAI and CBRE Initiative
14

                                                                                                                  

03
CONCLUSION

There is no doubt that India’s real estate sector is poised for significant growth, thriving upon opportunities
such as growth in income levels, increasing urbanisation and demand for new housing. With a share of
6.3% in the country’s Gross Domestic Product, the sector makes a sizeable impact on India’s economic
growth, both in terms of employment generation as well investment creation. However, this footprint is
restricted by numerous challenges inhibiting the sector such as high borrowing costs, lack of institutional
funding, lengthy approval processes and slow & uneven infrastructure development.

Once these bottlenecks are addressed, we can expect the economic contribution of the sector to increase
considerably, with its share of the GDP to more than double from 6.3% in 2013 to almost 13% by 2025.
This will be a direct consequence of the voluminous construction churn generated by the projected
completion of more than 8.2 billion sq ft of real estate space in 2025, up from about 3.6 billion sq ft
in 2013. Additionally, the sector is expected to contribute significantly towards bridging the employment
gap in the economy, by generating employment opportunities for almost 17 million people in 2025.

However, this projected expansion of the real estate sector can be achieved at an earlier stage before
2025, if the government provides relevant policy measures to create a more conducive environment for
growth in the sector. CBRE has provided a set of recommendations to assist the sector in achieving its
full potential in the long term. An effective implementation of these recommendations will undeniably
push the growth of the sector to a higher trajectory.

           Once the bottlenecks concerning the sector are
           removed, its share to the GDP might increase
            from 6.3% in 2013 to about 13% by 2025.

                                                     Assessing the Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector
15



           About CREDAI

           Established in 1999, The Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India better known as
           CREDAI is the apex body for private real estate developers in India, representing over 9,000 developers
           covering 22 states and 128 city chapters across the country. CREDAI has worked hard to make the
           industry more organized and progressive by networking closely with government representatives, policy
           makers, investors, finance companies, consumers and real estate professionals.

           Following are the major objectives of CREDAI

           • To perpetuate an ethical code of conduct, which is self – imposed and mandatory for all members,
             to maintain integrity and transparency in the profession of real estate development

           • To represent developers/builders across India by communicating and representing with government
             authorities for the formulation of proactive policies for this profession

           • To encourage and support the developments/builders to increase their efficiency in the development/
             construction activities by introducing latest technologies

           • To disseminate the data, statistics and other related information in this profession of real estate
             development

           • To promote the interest of construction workers and to educate them on the best practices

           • To encourage research in the profession of construction and real estate development

           • To facilitate easy housing finance availability by working in close coordination with the leading house
             finance institutions and banks

           Being on board of prestigious committees of the sector’s reforms like on the panel of ‘Housing and
           Habitat Policy 2007’, ‘Steering Committee for Urban Developing’, the committee of ‘Housing and
           Poverty Alleviation for the 11th Five-Year Plan’ along with various committees of the Bureau of Indian
           Standards, Bureau of Energy Efficiency, Planning Commission and others have resulted in CREDAI’s
           initiative of abolition of urban land ceiling, rationalization of stamp duty, the modification of the
           environmental impact assessment rules, several amendments related to service tax, Land Acquisition
           Policy and much more. CREDAI also represents the Steering Committee on Construction for the 12th
           National Plan (2012-2017).

           Linking private real estate developers to the government and customers through numerous initiatives
           and activities, CREDAI’s success in bringing the majority of organized private real estate developers
           under a single umbrella is a potent force that promises the rapid development of the realty sector, one
           that knows itself as a major driver of India’s economic growth.

           Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India
           CREDAI - National Secretariat, 703, Ansal Bhawan, 16, K.G. Marg, New Delhi – 110001
           Ph: 011 - 43126200, 43126262, Fax : 011 - 43126211
           Email: sghoshal@credai.org
           www.credai.org

     A CREDAI and CBRE Initiative
16

                                                                                                              

CBRE Group, Inc.

CBRE Group, Inc. headquartered in Los Angeles, is the world’s largest commercial real estate services
firm (in terms of 2012 revenue). We are a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company with unparalleled
intellectual capital, unmatched global capabilities, in depth local market knowledge, and a business
platform built on leadership in every major market.

CBRE was the first International Real Estate Services firm to set up an office in India in 1994. Since then
our operations have grown to include more than 2,800 professionals across 9 offices with a presence in
over 25 cities in India. As the leading real estate services firm, we provide our clients with a wide range
of real estate solutions including Strategic Consulting, Valuations/ Appraisals, Capital Markets, Agency
Services, Asset Services and Project Management.

Our guiding principle at CBRE is to provide tactical and strategic solutions that make real estate holdings
more productive and economically efficient. Every day, we partner with our clients to ensure that their
real estate strategy is aligned with their business strategy. And our RISE values—Respect, Integrity,
Service and Excellence—guide all our efforts. Our professionals are committed to providing the highest
quality offerings to developers, investors and occupiers—throughout India and around the world.

CBRE South Asia Pvt. Ltd.
Ground Floor, PTI Building
4 Parliament Street
New Delhi 110001
Ph: 91 11 42390200; Fax: 91 11 23317670
www.cbre.co.in

                                                   Assessing the Economic Impact of the Real Estate Sector
Contacts - CREDAI

Lalit Kumar Jain
Chairman (CREDAI)
Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India
chairman@kul.co.in

Contacts - CBRE

Harish Nair                                                        Vidhi Dheri                                                              Amritha Marshall
Director (Consulting)                                              Assistant Manager (Research)                                             Manager
CBRE Consulting, India                                             CBRE Consulting, India                                                   Corporate Communications
harish.nair@cbre.co.in                                             vidhi.dheri@cbre.co.in                                                   CBRE South Asia Pvt. Ltd
                                                                                                                                            amritha.marshall@cbre.co.in
Abhinav Joshi                                                      Sachi Goel
General Manager (Research)                                         Senior Associate (Research)
CBRE Consulting, India                                             CBRE Consulting, India
abhinav.joshi@cbre.co.in                                           sachi.goel@cbre.co.in

CREDAI Disclaimer
Although every effort has been made in compiling and checking the information given in this publication to ensure that it is accurate, however the authors, the publishers and their employees or
agents shall not be held responsible for the continued accuracy of the information or for any errors, negligence or otherwise howsoever or for any consequence arising therefore.

CBRE Disclaimer
CBRE Limited confirms that information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt their accuracy, we have not
verified them and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about them. It is your responsibility to confirm independently their accuracy and completeness. This information is presented
exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.
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