Health infra constraints likely to induce stricter lockdowns - 19 Apr 2021 - JM Financial
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19 Apr 2021
Health infra constraints likely to induce
stricter lockdowns
Aishwarya Sonker
aishwarya.sonker@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66303351
Harshita Kain
harshita.kain@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66301851
Arshad Perwez
arshad.perwez@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66303080Summary for the week…
This is the 49th edition of our COVID-19 tracker:
COVID-19 situation
• India is now recording 2 lac+ new daily cases: 2.7x times of the previous peak
o Fresh wave, stronger than the previous ones in almost all states– Maharashtra, UP, Kerala, Delhi , Gujarat, Punjab,
Chhattisgarh, MP, Karnataka, Rajasthan, WB, Haryana, TN, Bihar
o 3 states (Maharashtra, UP, Chhattisgarh), that form 25% of the GDP constitute 54% of new cases since mid-March
o Active cases in India have risen to fresh highs 1.9mn, up 61% this week vs. 62% last week
o New deaths rose by 69% last week vs. 51% before that and daily deaths at 75% of previous peak (1501 vs. 2003)
• Vaccination
o Almost 8% of the population has received at least the first dose vs. 40%/59%/49% in US/Israel/UK.
o Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kerala and Chhattisgarh leading in terms of the vaccination process as a % of population
o Vaccination drive has been expanded to all above 18 years from 1 May’21
• Health Infrastructure
o Besides shortages in oxygen in most states, Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat, Telangana, Karnataka, MP are facing
shortages in beds, vaccine and remdesivir, implying likely lockdowns in these states (MH/Delhi already have one)
o Fresh curbs: Delhi (1 week lockdown), Maharashtra / Rajasthan (Lockdown like restrictions), TN/UP (Sunday curfew),
Punjab/ Bihar/ Kerala/TN/Uttarakhand/MP-urban areas/Haryana/districts on Gujarat/Karnataka (night curfew)
Economic indicators
o Worsening indicators: a) 2-year CAGR for till 18-Apr’21 for e-way bills, property registrations in Maharashtra, Vehicle
registrations, b) WoW decline also seen in airline passengers, JM retail surveys, google mobility for retail & workplaces
o Agriculture operations continued to remain normal till this week. Most of Rabi harvesting is done and procurement is
proceeding as per plan and ahead of last year.
o Consumption sentiment is deteriorating due to localised lockdowns, reversal of migrants could add pressure.
o Yet, rural expected to be relatively less impacted vs. urban, contingent on spread of Covid
2Summary for the week…
World : Total cases- 142.3mn World: Total deaths- 3.0mn World: Total recovered- 121.0mn
USA USA
USA
19% 21%
23%
India
Others 6%
Others India
49% India Others 51% 11%
11% 56% Brazil
12%
Brazil
Brazil Russia France
Russia RussiaFrance 10%
France 10% 4% 3%
3% 4% 3%
4%
Source: Worldometer,
As on 19 Apr’21
3India vs. Rest of World India’s COVID-19 tally 2nd largest in the world
India’s second wave crosses earlier peak, infections in Daily cases growth (CDGR*) in India at 1.5% vs. 1.0%
some parts of Europe seemingly peaking last week; highest amongst other key nations
Italy France Spain
Iran Russia US - RHS
India - RHS Brazil - RHS UK - RHS Until 3 days after 2 weeks after Since Past one
60000 300000 Lockdown the lockdown the lockdown lockdown week
50000 250000 China* 44% 34% 29% 1% 0.0%
Italy 24% 19% 16% 2% 0.4%
40000 200000 France 16% 19% 15% 2% 0.7%
Spain 22% 30% 21% 2% 0.1%
30000 150000
Iran 47% 14% 8% 1% 1.1%
20000 100000
India 26% 9% 17% 3% 1.5%
Rus s i a 12% 13% 18% 2% 0.2%
10000 50000 UK 17% 19% 16% 2% 0.1%
Bra zi l 0.5%
0 0 US 0.2%
Day 1
Day 113
Day 129
Day 145
Day 161
Day 177
Day 193
Day 209
Day 225
Day 241
Day 257
Day 273
Day 289
Day 305
Day 321
Day 337
Day 353
Day 369
Day 385
Day 401
Day 417
Day 433
Day 449
Day 17
Day 33
Day 49
Day 65
Day 81
Day 97
As on 18-Apr-21; * Hubei lockdown
Source WHO as on 18 Apr’21 JM Financial, Note, Cases in China peaked in early Feb 2020 (Day 15-Day 25, Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 18 Apr’21, *CDGR: Compounded daily growth rate
we have not plotted as it stands as an outlier), *7 Day Moving Average
4India vs. Rest of World India’s recovery rate dips, death rate moderates
India’s deaths-to-positives ratio moderates to 1.20% vs.
Daily recoveries to daily cases lower WoW for India
1.27% last week
France Iran USA China Italy Spain Iran US
India Russia Brazil India Russia Brazil UK France
350% Italy - RHS Spain - RHS 700% 20%
18%
300% 600%
16%
250% 500% 14%
200% 400%
12%
10%
150% 300% 8%
100% 200%
6%
4%
50% 100% 2%
0% 0%
0%
Day 209
Day 273
Day 337
Day 401
Day 113
Day 129
Day 145
Day 161
Day 177
Day 193
Day 225
Day 241
Day 257
Day 289
Day 305
Day 321
Day 353
Day 369
Day 385
Day 417
Day 17
Day 33
Day 49
Day 65
Day 81
Day 97
Day 1
Day 187
Day 201
Day 355
Day 103
Day 117
Day 131
Day 145
Day 159
Day 173
Day 215
Day 229
Day 243
Day 257
Day 271
Day 285
Day 299
Day 313
Day 327
Day 341
Day 369
Day 383
Day 397
Day 411
Day 5
Day 19
Day 33
Day 47
Day 61
Day 75
Day 89
Source Bloomberg, As on 18 Apr’21, JM Financial, Recovery cases not available for UK, US, Spain Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 18 Apr’21, * 7 day Moving Average
* 7 day Moving Average
5India: State-wise Uptick in testing this week; fresh peak touched
All-India testing sees 14.8% rise this week vs. 22.8% last Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Kerala have the highest
week positivity rate
1600000 Total Tests done (7 Day Moving Average)
Worst hit states Confirmed Tested Tested per mn Test positivity ratio
1400000
1200000 Ma ha ra s htra 38,39,338 240,00,000 1,95,281 16.0%
1000000 Kera l a 12,39,425 140,00,000 4,06,312 8.9%
800000 Ka rna taka 11,61,065 240,00,000 3,58,577 4.8%
600000 All-India testing9,91,451
Ta mi l Na du sees 22.8% rise this
210,00,000 week vs. 4.7%
2,79,907 3.5%
400000 Andhra Pra des h decline 160,00,000
9,62,037 last week3,00,233 6.0%
200000 Del hi 8,53,460 160,00,000 8,19,017 5.3%
2.2%
0 Utta r Pra des h 8,51,620 380,00,000 1,70,089
28-06-2020
19-07-2020
09-08-2020
30-08-2020
20-09-2020
11-10-2020
01-11-2020
22-11-2020
13-12-2020
03-01-2021
24-01-2021
14-02-2021
07-03-2021
28-03-2021
18-04-2021
Wes t Benga l 6,59,927 98,10,000 1,01,213 6.7%
Chha tti s ga rh 5,44,840 65,60,000 2,28,469 8.3%
Punja b 3,00,038 66,10,000 2,21,298 4.5%
ALL INDIA 5.6%
Source Official Heath ministry, Bloomberg, JM Financial Source: COVID19.org; JM Financial, As on 19 Apr’21
63 states (Maharashtra, UP, Chhattisgarh), that form 25% of the
India: State-wise GDP constitute 54% of the total new cases since mid-March…
Sharp waves of infections seen in the initially worst- …and other states like Punjab, Chhattisgarh, MP, Gujarat,
affected states- Maharashtra, TN, Karnataka, Delhi, UP… Haryana, Rajasthan, Goa, Uttarakhand
New Covid-19 Cases : 7 Day Moving Average
New Covid-19 Cases : 7 Day Moving Average
Gujarat Madhya Pradesh
Delhi Andhra Pradesh 12000 16000
25000 70000 Rajasthan Goa
Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Haryana HP
Uttarakhand Punjab 14000
60000 10000
Karnataka Kerala Chhattisgarh - RHS
20000 12000
Maharashtra - RHS
50000 8000
10000
15000
40000
6000 8000
30000 6000
10000
4000
20000 4000
5000 2000
10000 2000
0 0
0 0
14-Dec-20
08-Feb-21
22-Feb-21
01-Jun-20
28-Dec-20
23-Mar-20
10-Aug-20
24-Aug-20
06-Apr-20
20-Apr-20
04-May-20
18-May-20
13-Jul-20
27-Jul-20
08-Mar-21
22-Mar-21
05-Apr-21
19-Apr-21
15-Jun-20
29-Jun-20
07-Sep-20
21-Sep-20
05-Oct-20
19-Oct-20
02-Nov-20
16-Nov-20
30-Nov-20
11-Jan-21
25-Jan-21
08-Feb-21
22-Feb-21
23-Mar-20
01-Jun-20
15-Jun-20
29-Jun-20
14-Dec-20
28-Dec-20
06-Apr-20
20-Apr-20
04-May-20
18-May-20
13-Jul-20
27-Jul-20
10-Aug-20
24-Aug-20
08-Mar-21
22-Mar-21
05-Apr-21
19-Apr-21
05-Oct-20
07-Sep-20
21-Sep-20
19-Oct-20
02-Nov-20
16-Nov-20
30-Nov-20
11-Jan-21
25-Jan-21
Source: CEIC- As on 18-Apr-21, JM Financial, *7 Day Moving Average Source: CEIC- As on 18-Apr-21, JM Financial, *7 Day Moving Average
7India: State-wise India’s active cases touch record highs of 1.9mn…
…As well as other states like UP, Bihar, Delhi, Rajasthan,
Led by active cases in Maharashtra... Gujarat and others
Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Chhattisgarh
State Total Active
Kerala Maharashtra - RHS Cases % Share CDGR
All India 19,29,329 7%
140000 700000
Maharashtra 6,72,037 35% 2%
Uttar Pradesh 1,91,457 10% 15%
120000 600000 Karnataka 1,33,562 7% 10%
Chhattisgarh 1,28,019 7% 5%
100000 500000
Kerala 94,009 5% 11%
80000 400000 Delhi 74,941 4% 12%
Tamil Nadu 70,391 4% 8%
60000 300000
Madhya Pradesh 68,576 4% 10%
40000 200000 Rajasthan 67,135 3% 11%
Gujarat 61,647 3% 12%
20000 100000
West Bengal 49,638 3% 11%
0 0 Bihar 44,701 2% 17%
27-04-2020
21-09-2020
19-04-2021
16-03-2020
06-04-2020
18-05-2020
08-06-2020
29-06-2020
20-07-2020
10-08-2020
31-08-2020
12-10-2020
02-11-2020
23-11-2020
14-12-2020
04-01-2021
25-01-2021
15-02-2021
08-03-2021
29-03-2021
Andhra Pradesh 44,686 2% 11%
Haryana 42,217 2% 11%
Telangana 39,154 2% 9%
Punjab 34,190 2% 3%
Source: CEIC- As on 19-Apr-21, JM Financial, Source: CEIC- As on 19-Apr-21, JM Financial, *CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate
8India: District wise Top 20 districts contribution rises in Mar-21
Top 20 districts constitute c.37% of total cases vs. The share of the worse-hit top 20 districts of Apr-20 in total
39% by end of Aug’20 cases has risen by the end of Mar-21
State Test 1 week
District State % Total Cases
per mn CDGR
Delhi Delhi 8,19,017 6% 2.4% Share of worse hit top 20 districts of Apr’20 in
Pune Maharashtra 1,95,281 5% 1.6% total cases
Mumbai Maharashtra 1,95,281 4% 1.5%
Bengaluru Urban Karnataka 3,58,577 4% 1.8% 70% 66%
63%
Thane Maharashtra 1,95,281 3% 1.4% 60%
60%
Nagpur Maharashtra 1,95,281 2% 2.2%
Chennai Tamil Nadu 2,79,907 2% 1.0% 50% 45%
Nashik Maharashtra 1,95,281 2% 1.7%
Kolkata West Bengal 1,01,213 1% 1.1% 40%
Ernakulam Kerala 4,06,312 1% 1.1% 30%
Lucknow Uttar Pradesh 1,70,089 1% 4.4% 30% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 26%
Kozhikode Kerala 4,06,312 1% 1.0%
North 24 Parganas West Bengal 1,01,213 1% 1.0% 20%
Ahmednagar Maharashtra 1,95,281 1% 2.2%
Malappuram Kerala 4,06,312 1% 0.8% 10%
East Godavari Andhra Pradesh 3,00,233 1% 0.4%
0%
Thiruvananthapuram Kerala 4,06,312 1% 0.7%
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
Jul-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Apr-20
May-20
Feb-21
Sep-20
Apr-21
Raipur Chhattisgarh 2,28,469 1% 3.5%
Thrissur Kerala 4,06,312 1% 0.8%
Aurangabad Maharashtra 1,95,281 1% 1.3%
Source Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, JM Financial; Covid19India.org- As on 18-Apr-21, Source: Covid19India.org- As on 18-Apr-21
CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate
9Health infrastructure: Shortage could induce lockdown
India: State-wise despite vaccine availability; Oxygen emergency in Delhi
HEALTH INFRA SHORTAGES FACED BY STATES
Delhi, Maharashtra, MP, UP, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, TN, Haryana, Punjab,
States facing oxygen shortage
Rajasthan, AP, Telangana, Bihar, Punjab
States facing Remdesivir shortage Maharashtra, Gujarat, MP, Karnataka, Telangana
States facing Vaccine shortage WB, Telangana, Odisha, TN, Maharashtra
States facing beds shortages Delhi, Gujarat, Karnataka, UP, MP, Telangana, Delhi
Total Occupied Vacant
Delhi
Covid Beds 19461 16128 3333
Covid ICU Beds 4403 4370 33
Mumbai
Bed Capacity 28322 21953 6369
DCH & DCHC Bed 20641 17009 3632
O2 Bed Capacity 10274 9710 564
ICU Bed Capacity 2762 2719 43
Ventilator Bed 1410 1390 20
Pune
Total Allocated Beds for Covid 26873 22888 3985
Allocated Beds for Isolation - without Oxygen 12494 9031 3463
Allocated Isolation Beds with Oxygen 11301 10877 424
Allocated Beds for ICU without Ventilator 1736 1651 85
Allocated of ICU Beds With Ventilator 1342 1329 13
Nagpur
O2 beds 4324 4304 20
Non-O2 beds 208 206 2
ICU beds 1897 1895 2
Ventilators 535 535 0
Chhattisgarh
Hospital beds 25024 15130 9894
Bengaluru
Total (Hospitals + Govt. CCCs) 6510 5132 1378
Source: State health websites, Financial 10Vaccines: Global Vaccination drive in key nations progressing well…
Global vaccines outpacing global virus Israel, UK, Chile and the US lead in inoculating maximum
% of their population so far
% of population given 1+ % population fully
Global vaccines administered (mn) Global virus cases (mn) dose vaccinated
1000
890
800 U.S. 40 25
India 8 1
600
EU 18 7
400 U.K. 49 15
Brazil 12 4
200
141 Germany 19 7
0 Turkey 15 9
22-08-2020
05-09-2020
19-09-2020
03-10-2020
17-10-2020
31-10-2020
14-11-2020
28-11-2020
12-12-2020
26-12-2020
09-01-2021
23-01-2021
06-02-2021
20-02-2021
06-03-2021
20-03-2021
03-04-2021
17-04-2021
France 19 7
Indonesia 4 2
Italy 18 7
Mexico 8 3
Chile 41 28
Russia 6 3
Spain 19 7
Israel 59 55
Source: CEIC, JM Financial Source: Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker- As on 18-Apr-21
11All above 18 eligible for vaccine from 1 May’21;
India: Vaccine Sputnik V approved after Covishield and Covaxin
A total of 123.8mn doses were administered in India till Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kerala and Chhattisgarh leading in
19-Apr’21 terms of the vaccination process (as a % of population)
Number of people vaccinated daily (mn) % of population given
State/UT Total Doses 1st dose 2nd dose
4.5 Maharashtra 122,73,973 9.0% 1.1%
4.0 Rajasthan 108,84,806 12.4% 1.9%
3.5 Uttar Pradesh 107,18,375 4.1% 0.7%
3.0 Gujarat 104,51,246 13.3% 2.2%
2.5 West Bengal 87,64,173 7.7% 1.2%
2.0 Madhya Pradesh 73,29,901 8.0% 0.9%
1.5 Karnataka 72,96,771 10.0% 1.2%
1.0
Kerala 58,70,232 15.0% 2.0%
0.5
Bihar 56,87,553 4.2% 0.6%
0.0
Chhattisgarh 49,57,157 15.4% 1.8%
17-03-2021
29-03-2021
10-04-2021
20-01-2021
24-01-2021
28-01-2021
01-02-2021
05-02-2021
09-02-2021
13-02-2021
17-02-2021
21-02-2021
25-02-2021
01-03-2021
05-03-2021
09-03-2021
13-03-2021
21-03-2021
25-03-2021
02-04-2021
06-04-2021
14-04-2021
18-04-2021
Odisha 49,30,367 9.9% 1.4%
Tamil Nadu 47,11,901 5.4% 0.8%
Andhra Pradesh 46,13,024 7.8% 1.2%
Haryana 30,66,316 9.7% 1.2%
Telangana 29,60,305 6.8% 1.0%
• The entire vaccination drive will be voluntary. 1st phase covered- i) 10mn
healthcare workers, ii) 20mn frontline workers, and iii) 270mn persons >50
Vaccine Collaborator Approved on / for years, and personsIndia: State-wise State Curbs and guidelines
•Lockdown like restrictions have been placed in Maharashtra till 1 May’21– i) Section 144 has been imposed / gathering of more than 4 people at a place has been banned,
Maharashtra ii) movement in public places without valid reason has been restricted, iii) establishments, public places, activities and services would remain closed and only
services/activities mentioned under ‘essential category’ would be exempted, iv) School, colleges, places of worship, cinemas, malls, gyms, dining at hotels and restaurants
etc. will remain closed
•1 week complete lockdown from 19-26 Apr’21
•Weekend curfew / Night curfew imposed in Delhi till April 30 (10pm-5am) / Cap on weddings (50 people), funerals (20 people), Restaurants/bars/cinemas/buses/metros
Delhi
(50% capacity), Govt. offices to operate at 50% capacity, Swimming pools shut, Ban on all social/political/entertainment etc. gatherings, RT-PCR test from those travelling
from Maharshtra
•Sunday curfew across all districts
UP •Night curfew in districts reporting over 100 new cases in a day/ those having 500 active cases. A night curfew has been imposed in Noida - Gautam Buddh Nagar, and
Ghaziabad from 8 Apr’21 / night curfew in Bareilly, Saharanpur from April 9, 2021 / Closure of schools till 30 Apr
Karnataka •Night curfew in Bengaluru from April 10 (10pm-5am). Night curfew also imposed in Mysuru, Mangaluru, Kalaburgi, Bidar, Tumakuru and Udupi
•Night curfew in Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Jamangar, Bhavnagar, Junagadh, Gandhinagar, Anand, Nadiad, Mehasana, Morbi, Dahod, Patan, Godhra, Bhuj,
Gujarat
Gandhidham, Bharuch, Surendranagar and Amreli from 7 April
•Weekend curfew / Night curfew will remain in force from 8 pm to 6 am / Lockdown-like curbs imposed in Rajasthan, offices to remain shut till May 3
Rajasthan •Capped the number of guest at weddings to 50 people only/swimming pools will be closed in the state / cinema halls, theaters, multiplexes, amusement parks will be closed
from April 5 / schools for classes 1 to 9 shut
Haryana • Night curfew from 9 am – 5 pm / A maximum of 200 people permitted at indoor events/A maximum of 500 people allowed to attend events outdoor./ from 5 Apr’21
•Night curfew in urban areas of MP from April 8 (10pm-6am) / lockdown in urban areas of all districts on every Sunday/ all the government offices of the will be open 5 days a
MP
week (Monday to Friday), from 10 am to 6 pm for the next 3 months / corona curfew extended in Bhopal till April 26
•Night curfew / All schools, colleges and educational institutions have been closed till May 15
Bihar
•All social functions have been curbed/All schools, colleges and educational institutions have been closed till April 12. All social functions have been curbed
•Cinemas/restaurants/malls closed on Sundays (weekend curfew in Chandigarh)
Punjab
•Night curfew till 30 Apr
Odisha •Night curfew in Odisha / weekend lockdown in 10 districts
•22 out of the 27 districts of the state, including capital Raipur, have imposed a night curfew / Complete lockdown in Raipur from 9Apr-19April / Restrictions have been
imposed on shops remaining open after 9 pm in several districts
Chhattisgarh
•Operation of all kind of temporary and permanent shops will be allowed from 6 am to 9 pm, while restaurants, dhabas and hotels can remain open between 8 am and 10 pm
for indoor dining
•Night curfew for two weeks from 20 Apr’21. The government decided to resume work from home facility. Private tuition centres are not allowed to open. Only online classes
Kerala
can be continued. Strict restrictions will be imposed in malls. Theatres can remain open till 7 pm only
TN •Night curfew from 10 pm to 4 am; complete lockdown on Sundays
•Shutdown of all universities/colleges and extending closure of schools across the Union territory till May 15. Ceiling on the number of people permitted to attend gatherings
J&K
and functions related to funerals shall be 20, 50 for all kinds of gatherings at indoor venues and 100 for outdoor venues
Jharkhand •Schools, park, gymnasiums, exhibitions, fairs, sports events will not function, effective from April 8 to April 30. markets will close after 8 pm
Uttarakhand •Night curfew / Negative RT-PCR test report must from some states 13
HP •Negative
Source News, RT-PCR test report must from-Punjab, Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. Educational institutions shut
JM FinancialIndia: Indicators As far as economic activity is considered…
Congestion levels fall sharply for some major cities Pollution levels for select industrial
this week areas lower, in-line with manufacturing PMI
Average Pollution Index (Select Industrial areas)
This year Last year 350 61
Manufacturing PMI- RHS
56% 56% 56% 300
52% 52% 52%
59
51% 51% 51%
46% 46% 250
46%
57
40% 200
35% 37%
33% 150 55
30%
25% 100 53
17%
50 51
9% 11%
11% 9%
7% -
49
-50
47
04-Apr
11-Apr
18-Apr
04-Apr
11-Apr
18-Apr
04-Apr
11-Apr
18-Apr
04-Apr
11-Apr
18-Apr
-100
-150 45
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Nov-19
Apr-21
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-20
Apr-18
May-18
Apr-19
May-19
Apr-20
May-20
Oct-19
Jan-18
Mar-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Aug-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Oct-20
Mar-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Feb-18
Jul-18
Feb-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Jul-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Mumbai Delhi Bangalore Pune
Source TomTom Index,- Taken for peak hours at 7pm; JM Financial, Last year stands for full year average Source: CMIE, JM Financial; *Average Pollution index on 500 at 11am on last day of the week: Navi Mumbai,
Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Moradabad, Vishakhapatnam and Chennai in these regions- Airoli, Maninagar,
Talkatora, Lajpat Nagar, GVM Corporation and Manali
142-year CAGR in railway freight revenue higher in Apr’21/ power
Indicators: Industrial consumption higher in Mar-21
2-year CAGR in railway freight revenue higher in Apr’21 Power consumption 2-year CAGR at 5.6% in Mar-21 vs.
at 4% until 18-Apr’21 vs. 0%YoY in Mar’21 5.2%YoY in Feb’21
Railway Freight Revenue growth (2 year CAGR) Power consumption (Weekly sum)
2-year CAGR
Loading growth (2 year CAGR) LK* LK* LK* LK*
3 4
10% 1 2
15% 8%
10% 6%
4%
5% 2%
0% 0%
-5% -2%
-4%
-10% -6%
-15% -8%
-20% -10%
-12%
-25%
16-Aug-20
20-Dec-20
21-Feb-21
14-Mar-21
14-Jun-20
12-Apr-20
03-May-20
24-May-20
05-Jul-20
26-Jul-20
04-Apr-21
29-Nov-20
06-Sep-20
27-Sep-20
18-Oct-20
08-Nov-20
10-Jan-21
31-Jan-21
Sep-19
Apr-20
Sep-20
Aug-19
Aug-20
Jul-19
Mar-20
Jul-20
Mar-21
Oct-19
Oct-20
11-Apr-21
18-Apr-21
Feb-20
Feb-21
Nov-19
Nov-20
Jun-20
Jan-20
May-20
Jan-21
Dec-20
Dec-19
Source: Rail drishti, JM Financial, Railway freight revenue YoY growth at 89% in Apr’21 vs. 24% in Mar’21 Source: POSOCO, JM Financial; LK* stands for Lockdown. YoY growth at 23% in Mar’21 vs. 3% in Feb’21
152-year CAGR for daily avg. e-way bills till 18-Apr’21 lower than
Indicators: Industrial in Mar’21
2-year CAGR in daily average e-way bills till 18-Apr’21 at Capacity utilization levels for 2W, Steel & Tractors above
7% vs. 14% in Mar’21 pre-COVID levels
120
% PreCOVID April Now
100
80 E-way Bills (mn) 2 year CAGR (RHS) 20%
70 10%
60 0% 80
50
-10%
40
-20% 60
30
20 -30%
10 -40% 40
0 -50%
Aug-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jul-20
4-11 Apr'21
Apr-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
May-20
Jan-21
Jun-20
Mar-21
11-18 Apr'21
20
-
2W CV Tractors Cement Steel- JSW Refineries & Upstream Power
Petchem plants companies
Source: GST Network, JM Financial; YoY growth at 596% in Apr’21 vs. 75% in Mar’21 Source: JM Financial; As on 11Apr’21, Based on analyst interactions with companies
16Mobility trends for workplaces lower WoW; 82% of the
Indicators: Industrial INR 3trn MSME Credit guarantee scheme sanctioned by 28-Feb’21
Mobility for workplaces down by 24% in the week ECLGS 1.0: 82% of INR 3trn sanctioned; Scheme
ending 14-Apr, vs. 18% before that extended till Jun-21
All India Maharashtra Delhi TN 3.0
INR trn
AP UP Karnataka 2.5
2.5
20 2.0
1.7*
0
-20 1.5
-40
1.0
-60
-80
0.5
-100 0.2
0.0*
14-May-20
14-Dec-20
14-Jan-21
14-Apr-20
14-Sep-20
14-Apr-21
14-Aug-20
14-Jul-20
14-Oct-20
14-Mar-20
14-Mar-21
14-Feb-21
14-Jun-20
14-Nov-20
0.0
Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative
amount amount Disbursed amount amount Disbursed
sanctioned sanctioned
Source Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb’20. * Mobility trends for Source Ministry of Finance, JM Financial, As on 28Feb21, *Disbursed as of 8 Jan’21
places of work, *Weekly Average
172-year CAGR in electronic toll collections higher in Mar’21;
Indicators: Industrial Labour force participation lower YoY
National Electronic Toll Collections 2-year CAGR higher CMIE’s labour force participation rate slightly lower in
in Mar’21 vs. Feb’21 Mar’21; 1.7ppts lower YoY
51 Labour force Participation Rate % (CMIE)
National Electronics Toll Collections - Volume (2 year CAGR)
49
350%
300% 47
250% 45
200% 43
150% 40.2
41
100%
39
50%
0% 37
-50% 35
May-17
Jan-19
May-16
Mar-18
May-18
May-19
Mar-20
Jan-21
May-20
Mar-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
Jan-18
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-21
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jun-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Jun-20
Dec-17
Mar-18
Dec-18
Dec-19
Mar-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Source: NPCI, JM Financial Source: CMIE, JM Financial
18Indicators: Consumption 2-year CAGR in vehicle registrations in negative territory
2-year CAGR in daily vehicle registrations in negative
Number of all-India vehicle registrations lower WoW
territory in Apr-21 so far
100%
03-Jan 10-Jan 17-Jan 24-Jan 31-Jan 07-Feb 14-Feb 21-Feb
Vehicle Registrations (2-Year CAGR)
80% PV 2-Wheelers MHCV LCV
28-Feb 07-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 30-Mar 05-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr
60%
327 40%
255 20%
0%
138
-20%
120
-40%
-60%
12 9
-80%
Vehicle No. of Revenue -100%
registrations (in transactions (in collections (INR
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-20
Nov-19
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
May-17
Sep-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
18-Apr-21
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
000s) 10, 000s) bn)
Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial
19Property registrations 2-year CAGR in Maharashtra lower
Indicators: Consumption till 18-Apr-21 vs. Mar-21
2-year CAGR in daily avg. property registrations in
Maharashtra lower till 18-Apr’21 vs. Mar’21 (-2% vs. Dwello website visits lower in the 1st week of Apr’21
29%)
Average daily registration of property in Maharashtra excl Mumbai 45000 Dwello Unique Website Visits Physical Site Visits - RHS 700
2 year CAGR
80% Average daily registration of property in Mumbai 40000
60%
600
40%
35000
500
20% 30000
0% 400
25000
-20%
-40% 20000 300
-60%
15000
-80% 200
-100% 10000
-120% 100
5000
Aug-20
Jan-20
Jan-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Oct-20
11-Apr'21
Apr-20
Feb-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Mar-20
May-20
Jun-20
Mar-21
12-18 Apr'21
0 0
19-Jun-20
20-Nov-20
10-Apr-20
24-Apr-20
08-May-20
22-May-20
05-Jun-20
06-Nov-20
09-Apr-21
04-Dec-20
14-Feb-20
28-Feb-20
13-Mar-20
27-Mar-20
11-Sep-20
25-Sep-20
18-Dec-20
01-Jan-21
15-Jan-21
29-Jan-21
12-Feb-21
26-Feb-21
12-Mar-21
26-Mar-21
03-Jul-20
14-Aug-20
28-Aug-20
09-Oct-20
23-Oct-20
17-Jul-20
31-Jul-20
Source: igrmaharashtra.gov.in/, JM Financial; YoY growth stands at 12908% till 18-Apr’21 for Maharashtra Source: *Dwello: Offers home-buying service to home seekers in Mumbai and Pune, JM Financial
20Retail trend and mobility trends for discretionary consumption
Indicators: Consumption lower
Consumption trend across value retail stores coming Mobility for retail and recreation* down by 30% in the
off week ending 14-Apr vs. 24% in the week before that
Value Retail Sales indexed to last year normal sales (indexed to
100)- (North and East India) ALL INDIA Maharashtra Delhi TN
120 AP UP Karnataka
100
100 20
82 83 84 8485 83 82
7274 7473 70 0
80
60
60 50524848 -20
4442
-40
40
-60
20
-80
0
-100
June-3rd week
Pre-Covid
Nov 1st week
Jan 3rd week
Feb 2nd week
July-2nd week
Dec 2nd Week
March 1st week
March 4th week
April 3rd week
13-May-20
09-Dec-20
30-Dec-20
20-Jan-21
16-Sep-20
01-Apr-20
22-Apr-20
14-Apr-21
05-Aug-20
26-Aug-20
15-Jul-20
28-Oct-20
07-Oct-20
03-Mar-21
24-Mar-21
11-Mar-20
10-Feb-21
24-Jun-20
03-Jun-20
18-Nov-20
Source: JM survey across retailers of V-mart, V2-retail, other value retail stores in UP & Bihar Source: Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb’20. *Weekly Average
* Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centres, theme parks, museums, libraries, and
movie theatres.
2110
15
20
25
30
35
5
0
07-Jun-20
20-Jun-20
INR bn
03-Jul-20
16-Jul-20
29-Jul-20
11-Aug-20
24-Aug-20
06-Sep-20
Source RBI, JM Financial, *Weekly Sum
19-Sep-20
02-Oct-20
Indicators: Consumption
15-Oct-20
Vol (mn)
28-Oct-20
10-Nov-20
23-Nov-20
06-Dec-20
19-Dec-20
WoW
01-Jan-21
14-Jan-21
withdrawals lower WoW
27-Jan-21
09-Feb-21
Val (INR bn) - RHS
22-Feb-21
AePS (through micro-ATMs / BCs) - Weekly Sum
07-Mar-21
20-Mar-21
02-Apr-21
15-Apr-21
mn
Aadhaar-enabled Payment System (AePS) cash
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
(mn)
65.00
75.00
85.00
95.00
105.00
125.00
135.00
145.00
115.00
155.00
24-Jun-20
03-Jul-20
13-Jul-20
21-Jul-20
30-Jul-20
10-Aug-20
19-Aug-20
28-Aug-20
05-Sep-20
15-Sep-20
23-Sep-20
03-Oct-20
13-Oct-20
Source: RBI, JM Financial; 7-day moving average
21-Oct-20
31-Oct-20
09-Nov-20
18-Nov-20
26-Nov-20
05-Dec-20
15-Dec-20
23-Dec-20
02-Jan-21
12-Jan-21
20-Jan-21
30-Jan-21
08-Feb-21
17-Feb-21
25-Feb-21
Volume of digital payments lower WoW
06-Mar-21
16-Mar-21
AePS cash withdrawal / volume of digital payments lower
24-Mar-21
05-Apr-21
Volume of Digital Payments (RTGS+AePS+NEFT+UPI+IMPS+NACH)
15-Apr-21
22Indicators: Consumption Airline travel lower WoW
Growth in transaction demand of money (Mar’21)
Daily airline departures, passengers lower WoW
slower, retail digital payments growth slows (Jan’21)
No. of Passengers - RHS (7 Day MA)
2,700 3,20,000 100%
% YoY Currency in circulation
No. of departures (7 Day MA)
Value of Retail electro. clearing+ Cards
2,70,000
2,200
50%
2,20,000
1,700
1,70,000 20%
0% 17%
1,200
1,20,000
700
70,000 -50%
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Nov-18
Nov-20
Nov-19
May-18
Jan-19
May-19
Jan-20
May-20
Jan-21
200 20,000
30 Jun’20
12 Jun’20
21 Jun’20
7 Mar'21
7 Jul’20
12 Dec'20
23 Jan'21
18 Apr'21
20 Oct'20
31 Oct'20
10 Aug’20
17 Aug’20
26 Aug’20
3 Oct’20
21 Nov'20
16 Jul’20
25 Jul’20
3 Sep’20
2 Aug’20
19 Sep’20
11 Sep’20
26 Sep’20
Source: RBI, JM Financial, 7 Day Moving Average Source: RBI, JM Financial,
23Incremental C-D Ratio rises to 48%; corporate spreads
Indicators: Monetary rise but still at pre-Covid levels
Credit-deposit ratio of commercial banks stood at 72% Corporate bond spreads remain at pre-Covid levels
on 26Mar’21; incremental C-D ratio stood at 48%
bps
System CD Ratio Incremental CD Ratio - RHS 330 Corporate bond spreads: 1 year AA Corporate bond spreads: 3 year AA
80% 300% 280
79%
78% 250%
77% 200%
230
76%
75% 150%
180
74% 72%
73% 100%
72% 50% 130
71%
48%
70% 0%
80
26-Mar-17
26-Mar-18
26-Mar-19
26-Mar-20
26-Mar-21
26-Jun-17
26-Dec-17
26-Jun-18
26-Dec-18
26-Jun-19
26-Dec-19
26-Jun-20
26-Dec-20
26-Sep-17
26-Sep-18
26-Sep-19
26-Sep-20
30
07-Jun
19-Jul
28-Jun
11-Oct
13-Dec
12-Jan
17-May
20-Sep
03-Jan
24-Jan
15-Mar
02-Feb
23-Feb
05-Apr
26-Apr
01-Nov
22-Nov
07-Mar
28-Mar
09-Aug
30-Aug
14-Feb
18-Apr
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial;
24NACH bounce rate lower in Mar’21, Retail stock trading
Indicators: Monetary turnover higher WoW
NACH bounce rate for recurring payments in Mar’21 Retail stock trading higher WoW; at 1.6x of last year’s
lower vs. Feb’21; almost at Feb’20 levels levels
NACH Bounce rate for Recurring payments (EMI, Insurance 65000 Retail stock trading turnover- 7 day moving average (INR cr)
50 premium etc) 60000
45 55000
50000
40 45000
40000
35 35000
30000
30
25000
25 20000
15000
19-Feb-21
19-Dec-20
19-Jun-20
19-Apr-20
19-Jul-20
19-Aug-20
19-May-20
19-Mar-21
19-Apr-21
19-Sep-20
19-Oct-20
19-Nov-20
19-Jan-21
20
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Dec-17
Mar-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Source NCPI, JM Financial Source MoneyControl, BSE, NSE, JM Financial
25Third consecutive year of normal monsoon expected,
Indicators: Rural
Wheat procurement higher YoY
Expectation of third consecutive year of normal Wheat procurement up by 8% YoY after 13% YoY
monsoon sets a good base increase in paddy procurement
% Monsoon (Deficit)/ahead of LPA (%)
2021 2020
Threshold deficit for below normal monsoon (%) (mn tonnes)
15%
10% 9% 14
10% 12.2
5% 5% 12
5% 2% 3%
1% 11.2
-2% 10
0%
-1% -1% 6.5
-5% -2% -3% 8
-6%
-10% -7% -8% 6
-9%
6.0
-15% -13% -13% 4
-15%
-20%
2
-21%
-25% -22%
0
2006
2017
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2019
2020
2021E
14Apr'21 18Apr'21
Source: Ministry of agriculture, JM Financial Source: Ministry of Agriculture,, JM Financial
26Tractor sales have been strong in last few months;
Indicators: Rural MGNREGA days growth picks in Mar’21 on lower base
MGNREGA days in Mar'21 show 38%YoY growth on a
Tractor sales have been strong in last few months lower base (up 25% from Mar'19 levels) after 15-20%YoY
growth in last few months
Person days (mn)
% YoY MSIL PV % YoY HMCL 2W FY21 FY20 FY19 FY18
% YoY M&M tractor % YoY Escorts tractor 700
100% 600 Sharp YoY uptick from May'20 ,
abating from last few months
50% 500
0% 400
300
-50%
200
-100%
100
-150%
0
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jan-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Mar-20
Apr-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Feb-20
May-20
Jul-20
Feb-21
Nov-20
December
May
April
September
July
February
June
March
August
November
January
October
Source Company, JM Financial Source: nrega.nic.in, JM Financial
27Indicators: Rural Inflation lower WoW ; mandi arrivals trend in similar range
Mandi volume trend remains in similar range - optically
Inflation lower WoW for most categories on higher base
high on a low base in 2020, c.20% lower than 2019 levels
Arrivals (mn Tonne) - 2020 Arrivals (mn Tonne) - 2021
YoY% Rice Atta Potato Pulses Onion - RHS Tomato
120% 200% (mn Tn)
100% 18
150%
80% 16
60% 100%
14
12
40%
50% 10
20%
8
0% 0% 6
-20% 4
-50%
-40% 2
-60% -100%
0
Dec'20-Wk5
Jan'21-Wk3
Apr'21-Wk1
Apr'21-Wk2
Apr'21-Wk3
Jan'21-Wk1
Jan'21-Wk2
Jan'21-Wk4
Feb'21-Wk3
Mar'21-Wk1
Mar'21-Wk2
Mar'21-Wk3
Mar'21-Wk4
Feb'21-Wk2
19-Jul-20
23-Feb-20
11-Oct-20
14-Feb-21
17-May-20
28-Jun-20
01-Nov-20
22-Nov-20
05-Apr-20
07-Jun-20
13-Dec-20
09-Aug-20
30-Aug-20
03-Jan-21
24-Jan-21
15-Mar-20
26-Apr-20
20-Sep-20
07-Mar-21
28-Mar-21
18-Apr-21
Source: Department of Consumer Affairs, JM Financial Source: Argmarket, JM Financial
28India: Indicators Other indicators…
Yield curve: Yields calm down in Apr-21 FII equity flows remain steady
USD bn Cumulative FII flows (debt+ equity) since 1Jan'20
Mar-21 Mar-20 Dec-20
Debt
% Equity
Jan-21 Feb-21 19-Apr-21 40
7.5
30
7
6.5 20
6 10
5.5 -
5 -10
4.5 -20
4
-30
3.5
15-Jan
15-Dec
15-Feb
15-Feb
15-Sep
15-Nov
15-Jan
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-Mar
15-May
15-Aug
15-Apr
15-Jul
15-Oct
15-Jun
1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year 15 year 30 year
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
…the INR stood at 74.9 Oil prices rose to USD 67/bbl
77 INR 75 Oil- USD /bbl
76
65
75
55
74
45
73
35
72
71 25
70 15
05-Jan
19-Jan
11-Jan
25-Jan
07-Jun
28-Jun
12-Jul
26-Jul
05-Oct
19-Oct
14-Dec
28-Dec
02-Feb
07-Sep
20-Sep
08-Feb
01-Mar
15-Mar
29-Mar
16-Feb
12-Apr
26-Apr
10-May
24-May
09-Aug
02-Nov
16-Nov
30-Nov
08-Mar
22-Mar
24-Aug
22-Feb
05-Apr
19-Apr
19-Jun
19-Jul
19-Oct
19-Dec
19-Jan
19-Feb
19-Sep
19-Jan
19-Mar
19-Feb
19-Mar
19-Apr
19-May
19-Nov
19-Apr
19-Aug
29Guidelines for surveillance extended till 30 Apr’21
Unlock 1.0 : 1 - 8Jun'20
Allowed Hotels, restaurants and other hospitality services, Shopping malls / Religious places and places of worship for public
Night curfew 9 pm to 5 am: All India except essential activities
Shut Containment zones except essential activities
Allowed Intra-state and inter-state movement of people and goods. No pass necessary
Unlock 2.0 : 1Jul’20
Shut Inside containment zones, lockdown measures have been extended till July 31
Shut Schools, colleges and coaching institutions will remain closed till July 31
Shut Metro rail, cinema halls, gymnasiums, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres, bars
Allowed Shops outside containment zones can have more than five persons at a time
Flights Domestic flights will be further expanded while international air travel will continue in a limited manner under the Vande Bharat mission
Night curfew Timings are being further relaxed to 10 pm to 5 am
Unlock 3.0: 1Aug’20
Allowed Interstate travelling without restrictions
Allowed Opening of yoga institutes and gymnasiums from 5 Aug’20
Shut Schools, colleges, metro rail service, cinema halls, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres
Night curfew Removed
Unlock 4.0: 1 Sep’20
Allowed Metro rail services from 7 Sep’20
Allowed Social/academic/sports/entertainment/cultural/religious/political functions allowed with a cap of 100 people from 21 Sep’20
States, UTs may permit upto 50% of teaching, non-teaching staff to be called to school s / Students of Class 9-12 can visit schools on voluntary basis to clear
Allowed
doubts
Allowed Open air theatres from 21 Sep’20
Shut Schools/Colleges/Cinemas/Swimming Pools/Theatres/Entertainment Parks/International Travel
Lockdown No lockdown outside of containment zones (without govt.’s consultation)
Unlock 5.0: 1 Oct’20 / Unlock 6.0: 1 Nov’20
Allowed Cinemas/ theatres/ multiplexes permitted to open with upto 50% capacity
Allowed Schools / Colleges allowed to reopen from 15 Oct with voluntary attendance (states have flexibility to decide)
Allowed Swimming pools may be used for training of sportspersons
Allowed Entertainment parks permitted to open
Shut Ban on international commercial flights extended till 31 Oct
Unlock 7.0: 1 Dec’20 / Guidelines for Surveillance 1 Jan’21
Allowed Cinemas/ theatres/ multiplexes permitted to open with upto 50% capacity
Social/ religious/ sports/ entertainment/ educational/ cultural/ religious gatherings, with up to a maximum of 50 % of the hall capacity, with a ceiling of 200
Allowed
persons in closed spaces (ceiling can be reduced to 100 by states)
Allowed Swimming pools may be used for training of sportspersons
Shut Suspension of scheduled international flights till 31 Dec’20. but Vande Bharat Mission/travel bubbles will continue (UK flights banned till 7 Jan’21)
Lockdown States may impose local restrictions such as night curfews but cannot impose any local lockdown without consultation with the Centre
Guidelines for Surveillance 1 Feb’21/1-Mar’21/1Apr’21
Allowed Cinema halls/theatres can operate with more than 50% of capacity
Allowed Opening of swimming pools for all and exhibitions
States States can impose local curbs / "Test-Track-Treat“ - Each state and UT to ensure the proportion of RT-PCR tests is 70 per cent or more
Shut International flights banned till 30 Apr’21
30
Source News18, JM FinancialRefer to our other earlier tracker reports
1. The COVID-19 Files: Your weekly update on COVID-19
2. The COVID-19 Files: Unveiling relief measures 2.0
3. The COVID-19 Files- End of fiscal stimulus in India?
4. The COVID Files- More economic indicators showing improvement
5. The COVID-19 Files-From Lockdown 4.0 to Unlock 1.0
6. The COVID-19 Files- Improvement in most economic indicators
7. The COVID-19 Files- India now ranks 4th in the global COVID-19 cases
8. The COVID-19 Files: India COVID-19 cases cross 0.4mn mark
9. The COVID-19 Files: Daily growth in cases inches up
10. The Covid-19 Files | India replaces Russia as 3rd worse-hit COVID-19 nation
11. The Covid-19 Files | Improvement in consumption indicators flattening?
12. The COVID-19 Files: Cases in India cross the 1mn mark
13. The COVID-19 Files: Daily cases growth surges back to 3.7%
14. The COVID-19 Files: Unlock 3.0 begins
15. The COVID-19 Files: Covid cases growth moderating, recovery remains gradual
16. The COVID-19 Files: Consumption indicators hold up momentum for 3rd consecutive week
17. The COVID-19 Files: Peaking awaited: Growth in new cases slows further
18. The COVID-19 files - Unlock 4.0 begins
19. The COVID-19 files - India overtakes Brazil as the second worst-hit COVID-19 nation
20. The COVID-19 files - Slower testing, delayed peaking & lagging recovery
21. The COVID-19 files - Slight moderation in India’s new cases trajectory
22. The COVID-19 Files - Temporary peaking for India?
23. The Covid-19 Files - Unlock 5.0: Seemingly peaking trajectory vs. slowing testing growth
24. The Covid-19 Files | Sustained recovery in indicators continues
25. The Covid-19 Files | Growth in daily cases falls below 1%
26. The Covid-19 Files | Daily cases continue to taper off
27. The COVID-19 Files | Unlock 6 begins
28. The Covid-19 Files | Third wave in Delhi hindering decline in the all-India daily case growth
29. The COVID-19 Files | Fresh waves of infections & cooling momentum in recovery?
30. The COVID-19 Files | Unlock 7.0
31. The Covid-19 Files | Can we hope for a better December?
32. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases fall to mid-Jul’20 levels
33. The Covid-19 Files | New coronavirus variant in UK: Renewed trouble for the world?
34. The Covid-19 Files | The COVID-19 Files- India's new cases lowest since Jun'20
35. The Covid-19 Files | India approves two vaccines
36. The Covid-19 Files | Vaccination drive to begin from 16 Jan’21
37. The Covid-19 Files | Vaccination drive begins..
38. The Covid-19 Files | World’s fastest vaccination roll-out; Active cases at Jun’20 levels
39. The Covid-19 Files | Globally new cases on the downward trajectory, economic recovery steady
40. The Covid-19 Files | Steady growth in economic indicators for Feb’21 so far
41. The Covid-19 Files | Covid cases rise again..
42. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases at 0.17mn, up 12% this week vs. 7% last week
43. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases rise by 12% this week to 0.19mn
44. The Covid-19 Files | New cases rise but growth in some economic indicators better until mid-Mar’21 vs. Feb’21
45. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases rise by 53% this week
46. The Covid-19 Files | New daily cases rise above previous peak in some states
47. The Covid-19 Files | New cases under 2nd wave now higher than previous peak
48. The Covid-19 Files | Additional Lockdowns? The interplay between the 2nd COVID-19 wave, vaccination & health infra
31JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited
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Definition of ratings
Rating Meaning
Buy Total expected returns of more than 10% for large-cap stocks* and REITs and more than 15% for all other stocks, over the next twelve months. Total expected return includes dividend yields.
Hold Price expected to move in the range of 10% downside to 10% upside from the current market price for large-cap* stocks and REITs and in the range of 10% downside to 15% upside from the
current market price for all other stocks, over the next twelve months.
Sell Price expected to move downwards by more than 10% from the current market price over the next twelve months.
* Large-cap stocks refer to securities with market capitalisation in excess of INR200bn. REIT refers to Real Estate Investment Trusts.
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