Health infra constraints likely to induce stricter lockdowns - 19 Apr 2021 - JM Financial

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Health infra constraints likely to induce stricter lockdowns - 19 Apr 2021 - JM Financial
19 Apr 2021

Health infra constraints likely to induce
                     stricter lockdowns

                                               Aishwarya Sonker
                 aishwarya.sonker@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66303351
                                                     Harshita Kain
                      harshita.kain@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66301851
                                                    Arshad Perwez
                    arshad.perwez@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66303080
Summary for the week…
 This is the 49th edition of our COVID-19 tracker:

 COVID-19 situation
 • India is now recording 2 lac+ new daily cases: 2.7x times of the previous peak
  o Fresh wave, stronger than the previous ones in almost all states– Maharashtra, UP, Kerala, Delhi , Gujarat, Punjab,
     Chhattisgarh, MP, Karnataka, Rajasthan, WB, Haryana, TN, Bihar
  o 3 states (Maharashtra, UP, Chhattisgarh), that form 25% of the GDP constitute 54% of new cases since mid-March
  o Active cases in India have risen to fresh highs 1.9mn, up 61% this week vs. 62% last week
  o New deaths rose by 69% last week vs. 51% before that and daily deaths at 75% of previous peak (1501 vs. 2003)
 • Vaccination
  o Almost 8% of the population has received at least the first dose vs. 40%/59%/49% in US/Israel/UK.
  o Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kerala and Chhattisgarh leading in terms of the vaccination process as a % of population
  o Vaccination drive has been expanded to all above 18 years from 1 May’21
 • Health Infrastructure
  o Besides shortages in oxygen in most states, Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat, Telangana, Karnataka, MP are facing
     shortages in beds, vaccine and remdesivir, implying likely lockdowns in these states (MH/Delhi already have one)
  o Fresh curbs: Delhi (1 week lockdown), Maharashtra / Rajasthan (Lockdown like restrictions), TN/UP (Sunday curfew),
     Punjab/ Bihar/ Kerala/TN/Uttarakhand/MP-urban areas/Haryana/districts on Gujarat/Karnataka (night curfew)

 Economic indicators
  o Worsening indicators: a) 2-year CAGR for till 18-Apr’21 for e-way bills, property registrations in Maharashtra, Vehicle
    registrations, b) WoW decline also seen in airline passengers, JM retail surveys, google mobility for retail & workplaces
  o Agriculture operations continued to remain normal till this week. Most of Rabi harvesting is done and procurement is
     proceeding as per plan and ahead of last year.
  o Consumption sentiment is deteriorating due to localised lockdowns, reversal of migrants could add pressure.
  o Yet, rural expected to be relatively less impacted vs. urban, contingent on spread of Covid

                                                                                                                            2
Summary for the week…

               World : Total cases- 142.3mn                   World: Total deaths- 3.0mn                  World: Total recovered- 121.0mn

                                                                               USA                                            USA
                                       USA
                                                                               19%                                            21%
                                       23%

                                                                                        India
      Others                                                                             6%
                                                                                                 Others                               India
       49%                                   India   Others                                       51%                                  11%
                                              11%     56%                               Brazil
                                                                                        12%
                                                                                                                                   Brazil
                                        Brazil                        Russia   France
                        Russia                                                                                      RussiaFrance   10%
                              France    10%                            4%        3%
                         3%                                                                                          4% 3%
                                4%

Source: Worldometer,
As on 19 Apr’21

                                                                                                                                              3
India vs. Rest of World                             India’s COVID-19 tally 2nd largest in the world

     India’s second wave crosses earlier peak, infections in                                                   Daily cases growth (CDGR*) in India at 1.5% vs. 1.0%
            some parts of Europe seemingly peaking                                                                 last week; highest amongst other key nations

                     Italy                        France                      Spain
                     Iran                         Russia                      US - RHS
                     India - RHS                  Brazil - RHS                UK - RHS                                         Until   3 days after 2 weeks after                Since        Past one
      60000                                                                              300000                              Lockdown the lockdown the lockdown                lockdown        week

      50000                                                                              250000                China*                44%              34%              29%               1%       0.0%
                                                                                                               Italy                 24%              19%              16%               2%       0.4%
      40000                                                                              200000                France                16%              19%              15%               2%       0.7%
                                                                                                               Spain                 22%              30%              21%               2%       0.1%
      30000                                                                              150000
                                                                                                               Iran                  47%              14%               8%               1%       1.1%
      20000                                                                              100000
                                                                                                               India                 26%               9%              17%               3%       1.5%
                                                                                                               Rus s i a             12%              13%              18%               2%       0.2%
      10000                                                                              50000                 UK                    17%              19%              16%               2%       0.1%
                                                                                                               Bra zi l                                                                           0.5%
            0                                                                            0                     US                                                                                 0.2%
                  Day 1

                Day 113
                Day 129
                Day 145
                Day 161
                Day 177
                Day 193
                Day 209
                Day 225
                Day 241
                Day 257
                Day 273
                Day 289
                Day 305
                Day 321
                Day 337
                Day 353
                Day 369
                Day 385
                Day 401
                Day 417
                Day 433
                Day 449
                 Day 17
                 Day 33
                 Day 49
                 Day 65
                 Day 81
                 Day 97

                                                                                                               As on 18-Apr-21; * Hubei lockdown

  Source WHO as on 18 Apr’21 JM Financial, Note, Cases in China peaked in early Feb 2020 (Day 15-Day 25,   Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 18 Apr’21, *CDGR: Compounded daily growth rate
  we have not plotted as it stands as an outlier), *7 Day Moving Average

                                                                                                                                                                                                         4
India vs. Rest of World                             India’s recovery rate dips, death rate moderates

                                                                                                             India’s deaths-to-positives ratio moderates to 1.20% vs.
        Daily recoveries to daily cases lower WoW for India
                                                                                                                                 1.27% last week

                        France                       Iran                          USA                                         China            Italy           Spain           Iran   US
                        India                        Russia                        Brazil                                      India            Russia          Brazil          UK     France
    350%                Italy - RHS                  Spain - RHS                                    700%      20%
                                                                                                              18%
    300%                                                                                            600%
                                                                                                              16%
    250%                                                                                            500%      14%
    200%                                                                                            400%
                                                                                                              12%
                                                                                                              10%
    150%                                                                                            300%       8%
    100%                                                                                            200%
                                                                                                               6%
                                                                                                               4%
     50%                                                                                            100%       2%
       0%                                                                                           0%
                                                                                                               0%

                                                                                                                     Day 209

                                                                                                                     Day 273

                                                                                                                     Day 337

                                                                                                                     Day 401
                                                                                                                     Day 113
                                                                                                                     Day 129
                                                                                                                     Day 145
                                                                                                                     Day 161
                                                                                                                     Day 177
                                                                                                                     Day 193

                                                                                                                     Day 225
                                                                                                                     Day 241
                                                                                                                     Day 257

                                                                                                                     Day 289
                                                                                                                     Day 305
                                                                                                                     Day 321

                                                                                                                     Day 353
                                                                                                                     Day 369
                                                                                                                     Day 385

                                                                                                                     Day 417
                                                                                                                      Day 17
                                                                                                                      Day 33
                                                                                                                      Day 49
                                                                                                                      Day 65
                                                                                                                      Day 81
                                                                                                                      Day 97
                                                                                                                       Day 1
            Day 187
            Day 201

            Day 355
            Day 103
            Day 117
            Day 131
            Day 145
            Day 159
            Day 173

            Day 215
            Day 229
            Day 243
            Day 257
            Day 271
            Day 285
            Day 299
            Day 313
            Day 327
            Day 341

            Day 369
            Day 383
            Day 397
            Day 411
              Day 5
             Day 19
             Day 33
             Day 47
             Day 61
             Day 75
             Day 89

  Source Bloomberg, As on 18 Apr’21, JM Financial, Recovery cases not available for UK, US, Spain          Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 18 Apr’21, * 7 day Moving Average
  * 7 day Moving Average

                                                                                                                                                                                                5
India: State-wise                                                                                      Uptick in testing this week; fresh peak touched

   All-India testing sees 14.8% rise this week vs. 22.8% last                                                                                                                                                            Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Kerala have the highest
                              week                                                                                                                                                                                                           positivity rate

       1600000                                                          Total Tests done (7 Day Moving Average)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Worst hit states         Confirmed         Tested       Tested per mn   Test positivity ratio
       1400000
       1200000                                                                                                                                                                                                              Ma ha ra s htra             38,39,338      240,00,000        1,95,281          16.0%

       1000000                                                                                                                                                                                                              Kera l a                    12,39,425      140,00,000        4,06,312          8.9%

        800000                                                                                                                                                                                                              Ka rna taka                 11,61,065      240,00,000        3,58,577          4.8%

        600000                                                                                                                                                                                                               All-India testing9,91,451
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Ta mi l Na du      sees 22.8%      rise this
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        210,00,000         week vs. 4.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2,79,907        3.5%
        400000                                                                                                                                                                                                              Andhra Pra des h    decline 160,00,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9,62,037   last week3,00,233          6.0%

        200000                                                                                                                                                                                                              Del hi                      8,53,460       160,00,000        8,19,017          5.3%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2.2%
                0                                                                                                                                                                                                           Utta r Pra des h            8,51,620       380,00,000        1,70,089
                    28-06-2020

                                 19-07-2020

                                              09-08-2020

                                                           30-08-2020

                                                                        20-09-2020

                                                                                     11-10-2020

                                                                                                  01-11-2020

                                                                                                               22-11-2020

                                                                                                                            13-12-2020

                                                                                                                                         03-01-2021

                                                                                                                                                      24-01-2021

                                                                                                                                                                   14-02-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                07-03-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                             28-03-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                          18-04-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Wes t Benga l               6,59,927        98,10,000        1,01,213          6.7%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Chha tti s ga rh            5,44,840        65,60,000        2,28,469          8.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Punja b                     3,00,038        66,10,000        2,21,298          4.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ALL INDIA                                                                      5.6%

  Source Official Heath ministry, Bloomberg, JM Financial                                                                                                                                                              Source: COVID19.org; JM Financial, As on 19 Apr’21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            6
3 states (Maharashtra, UP, Chhattisgarh), that form 25% of the
India: State-wise                                 GDP constitute 54% of the total new cases since mid-March…

     Sharp waves of infections seen in the initially worst-                                   …and other states like Punjab, Chhattisgarh, MP, Gujarat,
   affected states- Maharashtra, TN, Karnataka, Delhi, UP…                                            Haryana, Rajasthan, Goa, Uttarakhand

                                                                                                             New Covid-19 Cases : 7 Day Moving Average
                      New Covid-19 Cases : 7 Day Moving Average
                                                                                                                    Gujarat                                 Madhya Pradesh
                         Delhi                                    Andhra Pradesh            12000                                                                            16000
 25000                                                                             70000                            Rajasthan                               Goa
                         Tamil Nadu                               Uttar Pradesh                                     Haryana                                 HP
                                                                                                                    Uttarakhand                             Punjab           14000
                                                                                   60000    10000
                         Karnataka                                Kerala                                            Chhattisgarh - RHS
 20000                                                                                                                                                                       12000
                         Maharashtra - RHS
                                                                                   50000     8000
                                                                                                                                                                             10000
 15000
                                                                                   40000
                                                                                             6000                                                                            8000

                                                                                   30000                                                                                     6000
 10000
                                                                                             4000
                                                                                   20000                                                                                     4000
  5000                                                                                       2000
                                                                                   10000                                                                                     2000

                                                                                                 0                                                                           0
      0                                                                            0

                                                                                                     14-Dec-20

                                                                                                      08-Feb-21
                                                                                                      22-Feb-21
                                                                                                      01-Jun-20

                                                                                                     28-Dec-20
                                                                                                     23-Mar-20

                                                                                                     10-Aug-20
                                                                                                     24-Aug-20
                                                                                                     06-Apr-20
                                                                                                     20-Apr-20
                                                                                                     04-May-20
                                                                                                     18-May-20

                                                                                                       13-Jul-20
                                                                                                       27-Jul-20

                                                                                                     08-Mar-21
                                                                                                     22-Mar-21
                                                                                                     05-Apr-21
                                                                                                     19-Apr-21
                                                                                                      15-Jun-20
                                                                                                      29-Jun-20

                                                                                                     07-Sep-20
                                                                                                     21-Sep-20
                                                                                                      05-Oct-20
                                                                                                      19-Oct-20
                                                                                                     02-Nov-20
                                                                                                     16-Nov-20
                                                                                                     30-Nov-20

                                                                                                      11-Jan-21
                                                                                                      25-Jan-21
           08-Feb-21
           22-Feb-21
          23-Mar-20

           01-Jun-20
           15-Jun-20
           29-Jun-20

          14-Dec-20
          28-Dec-20
          06-Apr-20
          20-Apr-20
          04-May-20
          18-May-20

            13-Jul-20
            27-Jul-20
          10-Aug-20
          24-Aug-20

          08-Mar-21
          22-Mar-21
          05-Apr-21
          19-Apr-21
           05-Oct-20
          07-Sep-20
          21-Sep-20

           19-Oct-20
          02-Nov-20
          16-Nov-20
          30-Nov-20

           11-Jan-21
           25-Jan-21

 Source: CEIC- As on 18-Apr-21, JM Financial, *7 Day Moving Average                        Source: CEIC- As on 18-Apr-21, JM Financial, *7 Day Moving Average

                                                                                                                                                                                 7
India: State-wise                                                                                                                             India’s active cases touch record highs of 1.9mn…

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             …As well as other states like UP, Bihar, Delhi, Rajasthan,
                                          Led by active cases in Maharashtra...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Gujarat and others

                  Uttar Pradesh                                                                                              Karnataka                                                                                                   Chhattisgarh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         State              Total Active
                  Kerala                                                                                                     Maharashtra - RHS                                                                                                                                                                                Cases                 % Share                   CDGR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               All India                     19,29,329                                          7%
 140000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          700000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Maharashtra                   6,72,037                 35%                       2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Uttar Pradesh                 1,91,457                 10%                      15%
 120000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          600000        Karnataka                     1,33,562                  7%                      10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Chhattisgarh                  1,28,019                  7%                       5%
 100000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          500000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Kerala                         94,009                   5%                      11%
   80000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         400000        Delhi                          74,941                   4%                      12%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Tamil Nadu                     70,391                   4%                       8%
   60000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         300000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Madhya Pradesh                 68,576                   4%                      10%
   40000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         200000        Rajasthan                      67,135                   3%                      11%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Gujarat                        61,647                   3%                      12%
   20000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         100000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               West Bengal                    49,638                   3%                      11%
        0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0             Bihar                          44,701                   2%                      17%
                                      27-04-2020

                                                                                                                                 21-09-2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    19-04-2021
            16-03-2020
                         06-04-2020

                                                   18-05-2020
                                                                08-06-2020
                                                                             29-06-2020
                                                                                          20-07-2020
                                                                                                       10-08-2020
                                                                                                                    31-08-2020

                                                                                                                                              12-10-2020
                                                                                                                                                           02-11-2020
                                                                                                                                                                        23-11-2020
                                                                                                                                                                                     14-12-2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  04-01-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                               25-01-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            15-02-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          08-03-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       29-03-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Andhra Pradesh                 44,686                   2%                      11%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Haryana                        42,217                   2%                      11%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Telangana                      39,154                   2%                       9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Punjab                         34,190                   2%                       3%

 Source: CEIC- As on 19-Apr-21, JM Financial,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Source: CEIC- As on 19-Apr-21, JM Financial, *CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     8
India: District wise                                 Top 20 districts contribution rises in Mar-21

          Top 20 districts constitute c.37% of total cases vs.                                             The share of the worse-hit top 20 districts of Apr-20 in total
                         39% by end of Aug’20                                                                        cases has risen by the end of Mar-21

                                     State Test                                                  1 week
            District                   State    % Total Cases
                                       per mn                                                    CDGR
   Delhi              Delhi           8,19,017       6%                                           2.4%                        Share of worse hit top 20 districts of Apr’20 in
   Pune               Maharashtra     1,95,281       5%                                           1.6%                                          total cases
   Mumbai             Maharashtra     1,95,281       4%                                           1.5%
   Bengaluru Urban    Karnataka       3,58,577       4%                                           1.8%          70%     66%
                                                                                                                                  63%
   Thane              Maharashtra     1,95,281       3%                                           1.4%                                     60%
                                                                                                                60%
   Nagpur             Maharashtra     1,95,281       2%                                           2.2%
   Chennai            Tamil Nadu      2,79,907       2%                                           1.0%          50%                                 45%
   Nashik             Maharashtra     1,95,281       2%                                           1.7%
   Kolkata            West Bengal     1,01,213       1%                                           1.1%          40%
   Ernakulam          Kerala          4,06,312       1%                                           1.1%                                                       30%
   Lucknow            Uttar Pradesh   1,70,089       1%                                           4.4%          30%                                                   25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 26%
   Kozhikode          Kerala          4,06,312       1%                                           1.0%
   North 24 Parganas West Bengal      1,01,213       1%                                           1.0%          20%
   Ahmednagar         Maharashtra     1,95,281       1%                                           2.2%
   Malappuram         Kerala          4,06,312       1%                                           0.8%          10%
   East Godavari      Andhra Pradesh 3,00,233        1%                                           0.4%
                                                                                                                 0%
   Thiruvananthapuram Kerala          4,06,312       1%                                           0.7%

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                    Jul-20
                                                                                                                                           Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                             Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                                               Oct-20
                                                                                                                         Apr-20

                                                                                                                                  May-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb-21
                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-21
   Raipur             Chhattisgarh    2,28,469       1%                                           3.5%
   Thrissur           Kerala          4,06,312       1%                                           0.8%
   Aurangabad         Maharashtra     1,95,281       1%                                           1.3%

Source Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, JM Financial; Covid19India.org- As on 18-Apr-21,            Source: Covid19India.org- As on 18-Apr-21
CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9
Health infrastructure: Shortage could induce lockdown
India: State-wise   despite vaccine availability; Oxygen emergency in Delhi
                                                                    HEALTH INFRA SHORTAGES FACED BY STATES
                                                                    Delhi, Maharashtra, MP, UP, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, TN, Haryana, Punjab,
                    States facing oxygen shortage
                                                                    Rajasthan, AP, Telangana, Bihar, Punjab
                    States facing Remdesivir shortage               Maharashtra, Gujarat, MP, Karnataka, Telangana

                    States facing Vaccine shortage                  WB, Telangana, Odisha, TN, Maharashtra

                    States facing beds shortages                    Delhi, Gujarat, Karnataka, UP, MP, Telangana, Delhi

                                                                                                               Total           Occupied           Vacant
                    Delhi
                    Covid Beds                                                                                19461             16128              3333
                    Covid ICU Beds                                                                             4403              4370               33
                    Mumbai
                    Bed Capacity                                                                              28322             21953              6369
                    DCH & DCHC Bed                                                                            20641             17009              3632
                    O2 Bed Capacity                                                                           10274              9710               564
                    ICU Bed Capacity                                                                           2762              2719                43
                    Ventilator Bed                                                                             1410              1390                20
                    Pune
                    Total Allocated Beds for Covid                                                            26873             22888              3985
                    Allocated Beds for Isolation - without Oxygen                                             12494              9031              3463
                    Allocated Isolation Beds with Oxygen                                                      11301             10877               424
                    Allocated Beds for ICU without Ventilator                                                  1736              1651                85
                    Allocated of ICU Beds With Ventilator                                                      1342              1329                13
                    Nagpur
                    O2 beds                                                                                    4324              4304               20
                    Non-O2 beds                                                                                 208               206               2
                    ICU beds                                                                                   1897              1895               2
                    Ventilators                                                                                 535               535               0
                    Chhattisgarh
                    Hospital beds                                                                             25024             15130              9894
                    Bengaluru
                    Total (Hospitals + Govt. CCCs)                                                             6510              5132              1378

                      Source: State health websites, Financial                                                                                                   10
Vaccines: Global                                                                                                     Vaccination drive in key nations progressing well…

                                   Global vaccines outpacing global virus                                                                                                                                                                                       Israel, UK, Chile and the US lead in inoculating maximum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                % of their population so far

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 % of population given 1+   % population fully
                                       Global vaccines administered (mn)                                                                                                         Global virus cases (mn)                                                                                                  dose                 vaccinated
    1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       890
     800                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        U.S.                              40               25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               India                               8                1
     600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 EU                               18                7
     400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        U.K.                              49               15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Brazil                               12                4
     200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       141                  Germany                               19                7
         0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Turkey                               15                9
             22-08-2020
                          05-09-2020
                                       19-09-2020
                                                    03-10-2020
                                                                 17-10-2020
                                                                              31-10-2020
                                                                                           14-11-2020
                                                                                                        28-11-2020
                                                                                                                     12-12-2020
                                                                                                                                  26-12-2020
                                                                                                                                               09-01-2021
                                                                                                                                                            23-01-2021
                                                                                                                                                                         06-02-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                      20-02-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                   06-03-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                20-03-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             03-04-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          17-04-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             France                               19                7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Indonesia                               4                2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Italy                             18                7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mexico                                8                3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Chile                               41               28
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Russia                                6                3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Spain                                19                7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Israel                              59               55

 Source: CEIC, JM Financial                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker- As on 18-Apr-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 11
All above 18 eligible for vaccine from 1 May’21;
India: Vaccine                                                                                                                              Sputnik V approved after Covishield and Covaxin
   A total of 123.8mn doses were administered in India till                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kerala and Chhattisgarh leading in
                         19-Apr’21                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     terms of the vaccination process (as a % of population)

                                                                                        Number of people vaccinated daily (mn)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          % of population given
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        State/UT        Total Doses    1st dose      2nd dose
   4.5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Maharashtra              122,73,973      9.0%          1.1%
   4.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Rajasthan                108,84,806     12.4%          1.9%
   3.5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Uttar Pradesh            107,18,375      4.1%          0.7%
   3.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Gujarat                  104,51,246     13.3%          2.2%
   2.5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          West Bengal               87,64,173      7.7%          1.2%
   2.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Madhya Pradesh            73,29,901      8.0%          0.9%
   1.5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Karnataka                 72,96,771     10.0%          1.2%
   1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Kerala                    58,70,232     15.0%          2.0%
   0.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Bihar                     56,87,553      4.2%          0.6%
   0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Chhattisgarh              49,57,157     15.4%          1.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                17-03-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        29-03-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10-04-2021
         20-01-2021
                       24-01-2021
                                    28-01-2021
                                                 01-02-2021
                                                              05-02-2021
                                                                           09-02-2021
                                                                                        13-02-2021
                                                                                                     17-02-2021
                                                                                                                  21-02-2021
                                                                                                                               25-02-2021
                                                                                                                                            01-03-2021
                                                                                                                                                         05-03-2021
                                                                                                                                                                      09-03-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                   13-03-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                              21-03-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           25-03-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     02-04-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  06-04-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            14-04-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         18-04-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Odisha                    49,30,367      9.9%          1.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Tamil Nadu                47,11,901      5.4%          0.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Andhra Pradesh            46,13,024      7.8%          1.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Haryana                   30,66,316      9.7%          1.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Telangana                 29,60,305      6.8%          1.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The entire vaccination drive will be voluntary. 1st phase covered- i) 10mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        healthcare workers, ii) 20mn frontline workers, and iii) 270mn persons >50
                      Vaccine                                                                                       Collaborator                                                                                           Approved on / for                                                                            years, and persons
India: State-wise                                State Curbs and guidelines
               •Lockdown like restrictions have been placed in Maharashtra till 1 May’21– i) Section 144 has been imposed / gathering of more than 4 people at a place has been banned,
Maharashtra ii) movement in public places without valid reason has been restricted, iii) establishments, public places, activities and services would remain closed and only
               services/activities mentioned under ‘essential category’ would be exempted, iv) School, colleges, places of worship, cinemas, malls, gyms, dining at hotels and restaurants
               etc. will remain closed
               •1 week complete lockdown from 19-26 Apr’21
               •Weekend curfew / Night curfew imposed in Delhi till April 30 (10pm-5am) / Cap on weddings (50 people), funerals (20 people), Restaurants/bars/cinemas/buses/metros
Delhi
               (50% capacity), Govt. offices to operate at 50% capacity, Swimming pools shut, Ban on all social/political/entertainment etc. gatherings, RT-PCR test from those travelling
               from Maharshtra
               •Sunday curfew across all districts
UP             •Night curfew in districts reporting over 100 new cases in a day/ those having 500 active cases. A night curfew has been imposed in Noida - Gautam Buddh Nagar, and
               Ghaziabad from 8 Apr’21 / night curfew in Bareilly, Saharanpur from April 9, 2021 / Closure of schools till 30 Apr
Karnataka      •Night curfew in Bengaluru from April 10 (10pm-5am). Night curfew also imposed in Mysuru, Mangaluru, Kalaburgi, Bidar, Tumakuru and Udupi
               •Night curfew in Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Jamangar, Bhavnagar, Junagadh, Gandhinagar, Anand, Nadiad, Mehasana, Morbi, Dahod, Patan, Godhra, Bhuj,
Gujarat
               Gandhidham, Bharuch, Surendranagar and Amreli from 7 April
               •Weekend curfew / Night curfew will remain in force from 8 pm to 6 am / Lockdown-like curbs imposed in Rajasthan, offices to remain shut till May 3
Rajasthan      •Capped the number of guest at weddings to 50 people only/swimming pools will be closed in the state / cinema halls, theaters, multiplexes, amusement parks will be closed
               from April 5 / schools for classes 1 to 9 shut
Haryana        • Night curfew from 9 am – 5 pm / A maximum of 200 people permitted at indoor events/A maximum of 500 people allowed to attend events outdoor./ from 5 Apr’21
               •Night curfew in urban areas of MP from April 8 (10pm-6am) / lockdown in urban areas of all districts on every Sunday/ all the government offices of the will be open 5 days a
MP
               week (Monday to Friday), from 10 am to 6 pm for the next 3 months / corona curfew extended in Bhopal till April 26
               •Night curfew / All schools, colleges and educational institutions have been closed till May 15
Bihar
               •All social functions have been curbed/All schools, colleges and educational institutions have been closed till April 12. All social functions have been curbed
               •Cinemas/restaurants/malls closed on Sundays (weekend curfew in Chandigarh)
Punjab
               •Night curfew till 30 Apr
Odisha         •Night curfew in Odisha / weekend lockdown in 10 districts
               •22 out of the 27 districts of the state, including capital Raipur, have imposed a night curfew / Complete lockdown in Raipur from 9Apr-19April / Restrictions have been
               imposed on shops remaining open after 9 pm in several districts
Chhattisgarh
               •Operation of all kind of temporary and permanent shops will be allowed from 6 am to 9 pm, while restaurants, dhabas and hotels can remain open between 8 am and 10 pm
               for indoor dining
               •Night curfew for two weeks from 20 Apr’21. The government decided to resume work from home facility. Private tuition centres are not allowed to open. Only online classes
Kerala
               can be continued. Strict restrictions will be imposed in malls. Theatres can remain open till 7 pm only
TN             •Night curfew from 10 pm to 4 am; complete lockdown on Sundays
               •Shutdown of all universities/colleges and extending closure of schools across the Union territory till May 15. Ceiling on the number of people permitted to attend gatherings
J&K
               and functions related to funerals shall be 20, 50 for all kinds of gatherings at indoor venues and 100 for outdoor venues
Jharkhand •Schools, park, gymnasiums, exhibitions, fairs, sports events will not function, effective from April 8 to April 30. markets will close after 8 pm
Uttarakhand •Night curfew / Negative RT-PCR test report must from some states                                                                                                               13
HP             •Negative
       Source News,        RT-PCR test report must from-Punjab, Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. Educational institutions shut
                     JM Financial
India: Indicators                                                    As far as economic activity is considered…

        Congestion levels fall sharply for some major cities                                                                                     Pollution levels for select industrial
                             this week                                                                                                       areas lower, in-line with manufacturing PMI

                                                                                                                                                                   Average Pollution Index (Select Industrial areas)
                                                         This year   Last year                                                      350                                                                                          61
                                                                                                                                                                   Manufacturing PMI- RHS
                                                                      56%              56% 56%                                      300
                                                                                                      52%     52%       52%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 59
          51%       51%      51%
                                                  46%         46%                                                                   250
                                         46%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 57
                                      40%                                                                                           200
       35%                                      37%
                                                                       33%                                                          150                                                                                          55
                  30%
                            25%                                                                                                     100                                                                                          53
                                                                                                     17%
                                                                                                                                      50                                                                                         51
                                                                                            9%                         11%
                                                         11%                                                  9%
                                                                                  7%                                                  -
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 49
                                                                                                                                     -50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 47
         04-Apr

                   11-Apr

                             18-Apr

                                       04-Apr

                                                11-Apr

                                                          18-Apr

                                                                         04-Apr

                                                                                   11-Apr

                                                                                            18-Apr

                                                                                                     04-Apr

                                                                                                              11-Apr

                                                                                                                        18-Apr

                                                                                                                                    -100
                                                                                                                                    -150                                                                                         45

                                                                                                                                           Dec-17

                                                                                                                                           Dec-18

                                                                                                                                           Dec-19

                                                                                                                                           Dec-20
                                                                                                                                           Jun-18

                                                                                                                                           Jun-19

                                                                                                                                           Jun-20
                                                                                                                                           Nov-19

                                                                                                                                           Apr-21
                                                                                                                                           Nov-17

                                                                                                                                           Nov-18

                                                                                                                                           Nov-20
                                                                                                                                           Apr-18
                                                                                                                                           May-18

                                                                                                                                           Apr-19
                                                                                                                                           May-19

                                                                                                                                           Apr-20
                                                                                                                                           May-20
                                                                                                                                           Oct-19
                                                                                                                                            Jan-18
                                                                                                                                           Mar-18

                                                                                                                                           Aug-18
                                                                                                                                           Sep-18
                                                                                                                                           Oct-18

                                                                                                                                            Jan-19
                                                                                                                                           Mar-19

                                                                                                                                           Aug-19

                                                                                                                                            Jan-20
                                                                                                                                           Feb-20

                                                                                                                                           Oct-20
                                                                                                                                           Mar-20

                                                                                                                                           Aug-20

                                                                                                                                            Jan-21
                                                                                                                                           Mar-21
                                                                                                                                           Feb-18

                                                                                                                                             Jul-18

                                                                                                                                           Feb-19

                                                                                                                                             Jul-19
                                                                                                                                           Sep-19

                                                                                                                                             Jul-20
                                                                                                                                           Sep-20

                                                                                                                                           Feb-21
                  Mumbai                        Delhi                    Bangalore                            Pune

  Source TomTom Index,- Taken for peak hours at 7pm; JM Financial, Last year stands for full year average                        Source: CMIE, JM Financial; *Average Pollution index on 500 at 11am on last day of the week: Navi Mumbai,
                                                                                                                                 Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Moradabad, Vishakhapatnam and Chennai in these regions- Airoli, Maninagar,
                                                                                                                                 Talkatora, Lajpat Nagar, GVM Corporation and Manali

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       14
2-year CAGR in railway freight revenue higher in Apr’21/ power
Indicators: Industrial                                consumption higher in Mar-21

    2-year CAGR in railway freight revenue higher in Apr’21                                                     Power consumption 2-year CAGR at 5.6% in Mar-21 vs.
           at 4% until 18-Apr’21 vs. 0%YoY in Mar’21                                                                            5.2%YoY in Feb’21

                             Railway Freight Revenue growth (2 year CAGR)                                                                                                                       Power consumption (Weekly sum)
                                                                                                                 2-year CAGR
                             Loading growth (2 year CAGR)                                                               LK* LK*            LK* LK*
                                                                                                                                            3   4
                                                                                                                 10%      1 2
      15%                                                                                                         8%
      10%                                                                                                         6%
                                                                                                                  4%
       5%                                                                                                         2%
       0%                                                                                                         0%
      -5%                                                                                                        -2%
                                                                                                                 -4%
     -10%                                                                                                        -6%
     -15%                                                                                                        -8%
     -20%                                                                                                       -10%
                                                                                                                -12%
     -25%

                                                                                                                                                                                                16-Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        20-Dec-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            21-Feb-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        14-Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                            14-Jun-20
                                                                                                                        12-Apr-20

                                                                                                                                    03-May-20

                                                                                                                                                24-May-20

                                                                                                                                                                        05-Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                    26-Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    04-Apr-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            29-Nov-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                            06-Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        27-Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    18-Oct-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                08-Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10-Jan-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                31-Jan-21
                  Sep-19

                  Apr-20

                  Sep-20
                 Aug-19

                 Aug-20
                   Jul-19

                  Mar-20

                   Jul-20

                  Mar-21
                  Oct-19

                  Oct-20

               11-Apr-21
               18-Apr-21
                  Feb-20

                  Feb-21
                  Nov-19

                  Nov-20
                  Jun-20
                  Jan-20

                 May-20

                  Jan-21
                  Dec-20
                  Dec-19

  Source: Rail drishti, JM Financial, Railway freight revenue YoY growth at 89% in Apr’21 vs. 24% in Mar’21   Source: POSOCO, JM Financial; LK* stands for Lockdown. YoY growth at 23% in Mar’21 vs. 3% in Feb’21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                15
2-year CAGR for daily avg. e-way bills till 18-Apr’21 lower than
Indicators: Industrial                                                       in Mar’21

   2-year CAGR in daily average e-way bills till 18-Apr’21 at                                                                                                    Capacity utilization levels for 2W, Steel & Tractors above
                   7% vs. 14% in Mar’21                                                                                                                                               pre-COVID levels

                                                                                                                                                                  120
                                                                                                                                                                   %                                         PreCOVID    April   Now

                                                                                                                                                                  100
       80                               E-way Bills (mn)                              2 year CAGR (RHS)                                                  20%
       70                                                                                                                                                10%
       60                                                                                                                                                0%        80
       50
                                                                                                                                                         -10%
       40
                                                                                                                                                         -20%      60
       30
       20                                                                                                                                                -30%
       10                                                                                                                                                -40%      40

        0                                                                                                                                                -50%
                                                  Aug-20

                                                                    Oct-20

                                                                             Nov-20

                                                                                        Dec-20
                                         Jul-20

                                                                                                                            4-11 Apr'21
             Apr-20

                                                           Sep-20

                                                                                                          Feb-21
                      May-20

                                                                                                 Jan-21
                               Jun-20

                                                                                                                   Mar-21

                                                                                                                                          11-18 Apr'21

                                                                                                                                                                   20

                                                                                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                                                                                            2W          CV        Tractors      Cement       Steel- JSW    Refineries &     Upstream   Power
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Petchem plants   companies

  Source: GST Network, JM Financial; YoY growth at 596% in Apr’21 vs. 75% in Mar’21                                                                             Source: JM Financial; As on 11Apr’21, Based on analyst interactions with companies

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               16
Mobility trends for workplaces lower WoW; 82% of the
Indicators: Industrial                                                                 INR 3trn MSME Credit guarantee scheme sanctioned by 28-Feb’21

          Mobility for workplaces down by 24% in the week                                                                                                                                        ECLGS 1.0: 82% of INR 3trn sanctioned; Scheme
                  ending 14-Apr, vs. 18% before that                                                                                                                                                          extended till Jun-21

                      All India                                Maharashtra                                     Delhi                                    TN                                     3.0
                                                                                                                                                                                               INR trn
                      AP                                       UP                                              Karnataka                                                                                      2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                               2.5

         20                                                                                                                                                                                    2.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.7*
           0
        -20                                                                                                                                                                                    1.5
        -40
                                                                                                                                                                                               1.0
        -60
        -80
                                                                                                                                                                                               0.5
       -100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0.0*
                                       14-May-20

                                                                                                                             14-Dec-20

                                                                                                                                         14-Jan-21
                           14-Apr-20

                                                                                       14-Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                             14-Apr-21
                                                                           14-Aug-20
                                                               14-Jul-20

                                                                                                   14-Oct-20
               14-Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                                 14-Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                     14-Feb-21
                                                   14-Jun-20

                                                                                                                 14-Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                                               0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Cumulative          Cumulative             Cumulative          Cumulative
                                                                                                                                                                                                            amount          amount Disbursed           amount          amount Disbursed
                                                                                                                                                                                                          sanctioned                                 sanctioned

  Source Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb’20. * Mobility trends for                                                                                   Source Ministry of Finance, JM Financial, As on 28Feb21, *Disbursed as of 8 Jan’21
  places of work, *Weekly Average

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          17
2-year CAGR in electronic toll collections higher in Mar’21;
Indicators: Industrial                                             Labour force participation lower YoY

   National Electronic Toll Collections 2-year CAGR higher                                                                                    CMIE’s labour force participation rate slightly lower in
                     in Mar’21 vs. Feb’21                                                                                                                  Mar’21; 1.7ppts lower YoY

                                                                                                                                                   51                   Labour force Participation Rate % (CMIE)
                         National Electronics Toll Collections - Volume (2 year CAGR)
                                                                                                                                                   49
    350%
    300%                                                                                                                                           47

    250%                                                                                                                                           45
    200%                                                                                                                                           43
    150%                                                                                                                                                                                                           40.2
                                                                                                                                                   41
    100%
                                                                                                                                                   39
      50%
       0%                                                                                                                                          37

     -50%                                                                                                                                          35

                                                                                                                                                        May-17

                                                                                                                                                         Jan-19
                                                                                                                                                        May-16

                                                                                                                                                        Mar-18
                                                                                                                                                        May-18

                                                                                                                                                        May-19

                                                                                                                                                        Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                         Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                        May-20
                                                                                                                                                        Mar-16

                                                                                                                                                          Jul-16

                                                                                                                                                         Jan-17
                                                                                                                                                        Mar-17

                                                                                                                                                         Jan-18

                                                                                                                                                        Mar-19

                                                                                                                                                         Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                        Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                        Sep-16
                                                                                                                                                        Nov-16

                                                                                                                                                          Jul-17
                                                                                                                                                        Sep-17
                                                                                                                                                        Nov-17

                                                                                                                                                          Jul-18
                                                                                                                                                        Sep-18
                                                                                                                                                        Nov-18

                                                                                                                                                          Jul-19
                                                                                                                                                        Sep-19
                                                                                                                                                        Nov-19

                                                                                                                                                          Jul-20
                                                                                                                                                        Sep-20
                                                                                                                                                        Nov-20
                               Jun-18

                                                          Mar-19

                                                                   Jun-19

                                                                                                       Jun-20
             Dec-17

                      Mar-18

                                                 Dec-18

                                                                                     Dec-19

                                                                                              Mar-20

                                                                                                                         Dec-20

                                                                                                                                  Mar-21
                                        Sep-18

                                                                            Sep-19

                                                                                                                Sep-20

  Source: NPCI, JM Financial                                                                                                               Source: CMIE, JM Financial

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          18
Indicators: Consumption                             2-year CAGR in vehicle registrations in negative territory

                                                                                                       2-year CAGR in daily vehicle registrations in negative
       Number of all-India vehicle registrations lower WoW
                                                                                                                    territory in Apr-21 so far

                                                                                                       100%
        03-Jan      10-Jan       17-Jan          24-Jan   31-Jan      07-Feb   14-Feb     21-Feb
                                                                                                                                     Vehicle Registrations (2-Year CAGR)
                                                                                                         80%                 PV         2-Wheelers       MHCV         LCV
        28-Feb      07-Mar       14-Mar          21-Mar   30-Mar      05-Apr   11-Apr     18-Apr
                                                                                                         60%

                     327                                                                                 40%

                        255                                                                              20%
                                                                                                          0%
                                                          138
                                                                                                        -20%
                                                                120
                                                                                                        -40%
                                                                                                        -60%
                                                                                            12 9
                                                                                                        -80%
         Vehicle                                 No. of                             Revenue            -100%
    registrations (in                        transactions (in                   collections (INR

                                                                                                                  Nov-17

                                                                                                                  Nov-18

                                                                                                                  Nov-20
                                                                                                                  Nov-19
                                                                                                                   Sep-18

                                                                                                                   Sep-19

                                                                                                                   Sep-20
                                                                                                                  May-17

                                                                                                                   Sep-17

                                                                                                                  May-18

                                                                                                                  May-19

                                                                                                                  May-20

                                                                                                                18-Apr-21
                                                                                                                    Jul-17

                                                                                                                    Jul-18

                                                                                                                    Jul-19

                                                                                                                    Jul-20
                                                                                                                  Mar-17

                                                                                                                  Mar-18

                                                                                                                  Mar-19

                                                                                                                  Mar-20

                                                                                                                  Mar-21
                                                                                                                   Jan-17

                                                                                                                   Jan-18

                                                                                                                   Jan-19

                                                                                                                   Jan-20

                                                                                                                   Jan-21
          000s)                                 10, 000s)                             bn)

  Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial                                                     Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial

                                                                                                                                                                            19
Property registrations 2-year CAGR in Maharashtra lower
Indicators: Consumption                                                        till 18-Apr-21 vs. Mar-21

        2-year CAGR in daily avg. property registrations in
        Maharashtra lower till 18-Apr’21 vs. Mar’21 (-2% vs.                                                                                                                        Dwello website visits lower in the 1st week of Apr’21
                                29%)

                                          Average daily registration of property in Maharashtra excl Mumbai                                                                     45000                Dwello Unique Website Visits                Physical Site Visits - RHS   700
    2 year CAGR
     80%                                  Average daily registration of property in Mumbai                                                                                      40000
     60%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              600
     40%
                                                                                                                                                                                35000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              500
     20%                                                                                                                                                                        30000
      0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      400
                                                                                                                                                                                25000
    -20%
    -40%                                                                                                                                                                        20000                                                                                         300
    -60%
                                                                                                                                                                                15000
    -80%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      200
   -100%                                                                                                                                                                        10000
   -120%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      100
                                                                                                                                                                                 5000
                                                                            Aug-20
             Jan-20

                                                                                                                         Jan-21
                                                                                                       Nov-20

                                                                                                                Dec-20
                                                                                              Oct-20

                                                                                                                                                    11-Apr'21
                                        Apr-20
                      Feb-20

                                                                   Jul-20

                                                                                     Sep-20

                                                                                                                                  Feb-21
                               Mar-20

                                                 May-20

                                                          Jun-20

                                                                                                                                           Mar-21

                                                                                                                                                                12-18 Apr'21

                                                                                                                                                                                     0                                                                                        0

                                                                                                                                                                                          19-Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                                         20-Nov-20
                                                                                                                                                                                          10-Apr-20
                                                                                                                                                                                          24-Apr-20
                                                                                                                                                                                         08-May-20
                                                                                                                                                                                         22-May-20
                                                                                                                                                                                          05-Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                                         06-Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                                          09-Apr-21
                                                                                                                                                                                         04-Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                                                          14-Feb-20
                                                                                                                                                                                          28-Feb-20
                                                                                                                                                                                         13-Mar-20
                                                                                                                                                                                         27-Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                                                          11-Sep-20
                                                                                                                                                                                          25-Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                         18-Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                                                          01-Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                                                          15-Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                                                          29-Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                                                          12-Feb-21
                                                                                                                                                                                          26-Feb-21
                                                                                                                                                                                         12-Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                                                         26-Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                                                           03-Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                         14-Aug-20
                                                                                                                                                                                         28-Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                                                          09-Oct-20
                                                                                                                                                                                          23-Oct-20
                                                                                                                                                                                           17-Jul-20
                                                                                                                                                                                           31-Jul-20
  Source: igrmaharashtra.gov.in/, JM Financial; YoY growth stands at 12908% till 18-Apr’21 for Maharashtra                                                                     Source: *Dwello: Offers home-buying service to home seekers in Mumbai and Pune, JM Financial

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20
Retail trend and mobility trends for discretionary consumption
Indicators: Consumption                                                               lower

      Consumption trend across value retail stores coming                                                                                                                         Mobility for retail and recreation* down by 30% in the
                             off                                                                                                                                                  week ending 14-Apr vs. 24% in the week before that

                      Value Retail Sales indexed to last year normal sales (indexed to
                      100)- (North and East India)                                                                                                                                                    ALL INDIA                                                   Maharashtra                                                   Delhi                                                          TN
          120                                                                                                                                                                                         AP                                                          UP                                                            Karnataka
                  100
          100                                                                                                                                                                       20
                                                                      82 83 84 8485                                                        83 82
                                                             7274 7473                                                                                       70                       0
           80
                         60
           60              50524848                                                                                                                                                -20
                                   4442
                                                                                                                                                                                   -40
           40
                                                                                                                                                                                   -60
           20
                                                                                                                                                                                   -80
             0
                                                                                                                                                                                 -100
                             June-3rd week
                 Pre-Covid

                                                              Nov 1st week

                                                                                            Jan 3rd week

                                                                                                           Feb 2nd week
                                             July-2nd week

                                                                             Dec 2nd Week

                                                                                                                          March 1st week

                                                                                                                                            March 4th week

                                                                                                                                                             April 3rd week

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              13-May-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      09-Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  30-Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20-Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      16-Sep-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                      01-Apr-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  22-Apr-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              14-Apr-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              05-Aug-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          26-Aug-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  15-Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              28-Oct-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  07-Oct-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      03-Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  24-Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                                                          11-Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          10-Feb-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      24-Jun-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          03-Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          18-Nov-20
  Source: JM survey across retailers of V-mart, V2-retail, other value retail stores in UP & Bihar                                                                            Source: Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb’20. *Weekly Average
                                                                                                                                                                              * Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centres, theme parks, museums, libraries, and
                                                                                                                                                                              movie theatres.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          21
10
                                                                                                 15
                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                                        25
                                                                                                                                    30
                                                                                                                                                  35

                                                                             5

                                                                     0
                                                        07-Jun-20
                                                        20-Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                        INR bn
                                                         03-Jul-20
                                                         16-Jul-20
                                                         29-Jul-20
                                                       11-Aug-20
                                                       24-Aug-20
                                                       06-Sep-20

     Source RBI, JM Financial, *Weekly Sum
                                                       19-Sep-20
                                                        02-Oct-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Indicators: Consumption

                                                        15-Oct-20

                                                                                                                                                   Vol (mn)
                                                        28-Oct-20
                                                       10-Nov-20
                                                       23-Nov-20
                                                       06-Dec-20
                                                       19-Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            WoW

                                                        01-Jan-21
                                                        14-Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    withdrawals lower WoW

                                                        27-Jan-21
                                                        09-Feb-21
                                                                                                                                                   Val (INR bn) - RHS

                                                        22-Feb-21
                                                                                                                                                                        AePS (through micro-ATMs / BCs) - Weekly Sum

                                                       07-Mar-21
                                                       20-Mar-21
                                                       02-Apr-21
                                                       15-Apr-21
                                                                                                                                                                        mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aadhaar-enabled Payment System (AePS) cash

                                                                     0
                                                                             10
                                                                                       20
                                                                                                 30
                                                                                                              40
                                                                                                                        50
                                                                                                                                    60
                                                                                                                                                  70
                                                                                                                                                                                  (mn)

                                                                     65.00
                                                                             75.00
                                                                                     85.00
                                                                                             95.00
                                                                                                     105.00
                                                                                                                       125.00
                                                                                                                                135.00
                                                                                                                                         145.00

                                                                                                              115.00
                                                                                                                                                  155.00

                                                        24-Jun-20
                                                         03-Jul-20
                                                         13-Jul-20
                                                         21-Jul-20
                                                         30-Jul-20
                                                       10-Aug-20
                                                       19-Aug-20
                                                       28-Aug-20
                                                       05-Sep-20
                                                       15-Sep-20
                                                       23-Sep-20
                                                        03-Oct-20
                                                        13-Oct-20
     Source: RBI, JM Financial; 7-day moving average

                                                        21-Oct-20
                                                        31-Oct-20
                                                       09-Nov-20
                                                       18-Nov-20
                                                       26-Nov-20
                                                       05-Dec-20
                                                       15-Dec-20
                                                       23-Dec-20
                                                        02-Jan-21
                                                        12-Jan-21
                                                        20-Jan-21
                                                        30-Jan-21
                                                        08-Feb-21
                                                        17-Feb-21
                                                        25-Feb-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Volume of digital payments lower WoW

                                                       06-Mar-21
                                                       16-Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            AePS cash withdrawal / volume of digital payments lower

                                                       24-Mar-21
                                                       05-Apr-21
                                                                                                                                                                              Volume of Digital Payments (RTGS+AePS+NEFT+UPI+IMPS+NACH)

                                                       15-Apr-21
22
Indicators: Consumption                              Airline travel lower WoW

                                                                                         Growth in transaction demand of money (Mar’21)
           Daily airline departures, passengers lower WoW
                                                                                       slower, retail digital payments growth slows (Jan’21)

                                  No. of Passengers - RHS (7 Day MA)
   2,700                                                               3,20,000     100%
                                                                                     % YoY                                                   Currency in circulation
                                  No. of departures (7 Day MA)
                                                                                                                                             Value of Retail electro. clearing+ Cards
                                                                       2,70,000
   2,200
                                                                                      50%
                                                                       2,20,000
   1,700
                                                                       1,70,000                                                                                                                                                                 20%
                                                                                        0%                                                                                                                                                                        17%
   1,200
                                                                       1,20,000

     700
                                                                       70,000        -50%

                                                                                                                         Sep-18

                                                                                                                                                                               Sep-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-20
                                                                                                                Jul-18

                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-20
                                                                                              Mar-18

                                                                                                                                                    Mar-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar-21
                                                                                                                                  Nov-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov-20
                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-19
                                                                                                       May-18

                                                                                                                                           Jan-19

                                                                                                                                                             May-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   May-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-21
     200                                                               20,000
            30 Jun’20
            12 Jun’20
            21 Jun’20

            7 Mar'21
              7 Jul’20

           12 Dec'20
            23 Jan'21

           18 Apr'21
           20 Oct'20
           31 Oct'20
           10 Aug’20
           17 Aug’20
           26 Aug’20

             3 Oct’20

           21 Nov'20
             16 Jul’20
             25 Jul’20

             3 Sep’20
            2 Aug’20

           19 Sep’20
           11 Sep’20

           26 Sep’20

   Source: RBI, JM Financial, 7 Day Moving Average                                Source: RBI, JM Financial,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         23
Incremental C-D Ratio rises to 48%; corporate spreads
Indicators: Monetary                                                                                             rise but still at pre-Covid levels

    Credit-deposit ratio of commercial banks stood at 72%                                                                                                                                                                          Corporate bond spreads remain at pre-Covid levels
       on 26Mar’21; incremental C-D ratio stood at 48%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   bps
                                               System CD Ratio                                                         Incremental CD Ratio - RHS                                                                                 330                 Corporate bond spreads: 1 year AA                                                                Corporate bond spreads: 3 year AA

     80%                                                                                                                                                                                                               300%       280
     79%
     78%                                                                                                                                                                                                               250%
     77%                                                                                                                                                                                                               200%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  230
     76%
     75%                                                                                                                                                                                                               150%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  180
     74%                                                                                                                                                                                  72%
     73%                                                                                                                                                                                                               100%
     72%                                                                                                                                                                                                               50%        130
     71%
                                                                                                                                                                                               48%
     70%                                                                                                                                                                                                               0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   80
           26-Mar-17

                                                           26-Mar-18

                                                                                                           26-Mar-19

                                                                                                                                                           26-Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                           26-Mar-21
                       26-Jun-17

                                               26-Dec-17

                                                                       26-Jun-18

                                                                                               26-Dec-18

                                                                                                                       26-Jun-19

                                                                                                                                               26-Dec-19

                                                                                                                                                                       26-Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                                               26-Dec-20
                                   26-Sep-17

                                                                                   26-Sep-18

                                                                                                                                   26-Sep-19

                                                                                                                                                                                   26-Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   30

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        07-Jun

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          19-Jul
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 28-Jun

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              11-Oct

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         13-Dec
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         12-Jan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               17-May

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20-Sep

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  03-Jan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           24-Jan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    15-Mar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  02-Feb
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           23-Feb

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             05-Apr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      26-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       01-Nov
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                22-Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             07-Mar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      28-Mar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   09-Aug
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            30-Aug

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    14-Feb

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               18-Apr
  Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial                                                                                                                                                                                             Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial;

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        24
NACH bounce rate lower in Mar’21, Retail stock trading
Indicators: Monetary                                                     turnover higher WoW

       NACH bounce rate for recurring payments in Mar’21                                                                                                Retail stock trading higher WoW; at 1.6x of last year’s
           lower vs. Feb’21; almost at Feb’20 levels                                                                                                                            levels

                               NACH Bounce rate for Recurring payments (EMI, Insurance                                                                65000                           Retail stock trading turnover- 7 day moving average (INR cr)
        50                     premium etc)                                                                                                           60000
        45                                                                                                                                            55000
                                                                                                                                                      50000
        40                                                                                                                                            45000
                                                                                                                                                      40000
        35                                                                                                                                            35000
                                                                                                                                                      30000
        30
                                                                                                                                                      25000
        25                                                                                                                                            20000
                                                                                                                                                      15000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        19-Feb-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19-Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                                                        19-Jun-20
                                                                                                                                                              19-Apr-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                    19-Jul-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                19-Aug-20
                                                                                                                                                                          19-May-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    19-Mar-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19-Apr-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            19-Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        19-Oct-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    19-Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            19-Jan-21
        20
             Sep-17

                                                   Sep-18

                                                                                       Sep-19

                                                                                                                           Sep-20
                      Dec-17

                                 Mar-18

                                                            Dec-18

                                                                     Mar-19

                                                                                                Dec-19

                                                                                                         Mar-20

                                                                                                                                    Dec-20

                                                                                                                                             Mar-21
                                          Jun-18

                                                                              Jun-19

                                                                                                                  Jun-20

  Source NCPI, JM Financial                                                                                                                           Source MoneyControl, BSE, NSE, JM Financial

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            25
Third consecutive year of normal monsoon expected,
Indicators: Rural
                                                        Wheat procurement higher YoY

            Expectation of third consecutive year of normal                                          Wheat procurement up by 8% YoY after 13% YoY
                      monsoon sets a good base                                                               increase in paddy procurement

                                     % Monsoon (Deficit)/ahead of LPA (%)
                                                                                                                                              2021   2020
                                     Threshold deficit for below normal monsoon (%)               (mn tonnes)
            15%
                                                                              10% 9%              14
            10%                                                                                                                                             12.2
                                            5%                 5%                                 12
              5%            2%                          3%
                                                          1%                                                                                                 11.2
                                                                                       -2%        10
              0%
                                    -1% -1%                                                                                  6.5
             -5%                                  -2%                  -3%                          8
                                                                            -6%
           -10% -7%                                        -8%                                      6
                                                                              -9%
                                                                                                                             6.0
           -15%                -13%                              -13%                               4
                                                                    -15%
           -20%
                                                                                                    2
                       -21%
           -25%                                    -22%
                                                                                                    0
                      2006

                      2017
                      2001
                      2002
                      2003
                      2004
                      2005

                      2007
                      2008
                      2009
                      2010
                      2011
                      2012
                      2013
                      2014
                      2015
                      2016

                      2018
                      2019
                      2020
                     2021E

                                                                                                                         14Apr'21                       18Apr'21

  Source: Ministry of agriculture, JM Financial                                              Source: Ministry of Agriculture,, JM Financial

                                                                                                                                                                    26
Tractor sales have been strong in last few months;
Indicators: Rural                                                      MGNREGA days growth picks in Mar’21 on lower base

                                                                                                                                                           MGNREGA days in Mar'21 show 38%YoY growth on a
        Tractor sales have been strong in last few months                                                                                                lower base (up 25% from Mar'19 levels) after 15-20%YoY
                                                                                                                                                                       growth in last few months

                                                                                                                                                                         Person days (mn)

                              % YoY MSIL PV                                                        % YoY HMCL 2W                                                                             FY21                FY20                         FY19                          FY18

                              % YoY M&M tractor                                                    % YoY Escorts tractor                                               700
        100%                                                                                                                                                           600                                            Sharp YoY uptick from May'20 ,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      abating from last few months
         50%                                                                                                                                                           500

           0%                                                                                                                                                          400

                                                                                                                                                                       300
         -50%
                                                                                                                                                                       200
       -100%
                                                                                                                                                                       100
       -150%
                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                              Jun-20

                                                                                                                    Dec-20
                 Jan-20

                                                                                Aug-20

                                                                                                  Oct-20

                                                                                                                             Jan-21
                                   Mar-20

                                            Apr-20

                                                                                         Sep-20

                                                                                                                                               Mar-21
                          Feb-20

                                                     May-20

                                                                       Jul-20

                                                                                                                                      Feb-21
                                                                                                           Nov-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       December
                                                                                                                                                                                       May
                                                                                                                                                                               April

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      September
                                                                                                                                                                                                      July

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            February
                                                                                                                                                                                               June

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       March
                                                                                                                                                                                                             August

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            November

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  January
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  October
  Source Company, JM Financial                                                                                                                          Source: nrega.nic.in, JM Financial

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               27
Indicators: Rural                                                                                                                 Inflation lower WoW ; mandi arrivals trend in similar range

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mandi volume trend remains in similar range - optically
    Inflation lower WoW for most categories on higher base
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                high on a low base in 2020, c.20% lower than 2019 levels

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Arrivals (mn Tonne) - 2020                                                                      Arrivals (mn Tonne) - 2021
    YoY%                                Rice                               Atta                               Potato                                      Pulses                                 Onion - RHS                                               Tomato
   120%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       200%                 (mn Tn)
   100%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       150%
    80%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            16
    60%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                100%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   12
    40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       50%         10
    20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    8
     0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0%           6
   -20%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -50%
   -40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2
   -60%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -100%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dec'20-Wk5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan'21-Wk3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr'21-Wk1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr'21-Wk2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr'21-Wk3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan'21-Wk1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan'21-Wk2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan'21-Wk4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Feb'21-Wk3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar'21-Wk1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar'21-Wk2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar'21-Wk3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar'21-Wk4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb'21-Wk2
                                                                                              19-Jul-20
          23-Feb-20

                                                                                                                                              11-Oct-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       14-Feb-21
                                                          17-May-20

                                                                                  28-Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                           01-Nov-20
                                                                                                                                                                       22-Nov-20
                                  05-Apr-20

                                                                      07-Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                                   13-Dec-20
                                                                                                          09-Aug-20
                                                                                                                      30-Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                                                               03-Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                           24-Jan-21
                      15-Mar-20

                                              26-Apr-20

                                                                                                                                  20-Sep-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   07-Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               28-Mar-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           18-Apr-21

  Source: Department of Consumer Affairs, JM Financial                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Argmarket, JM Financial

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                28
India: Indicators                                    Other indicators…
                     Yield curve: Yields calm down in Apr-21                                                                      FII equity flows remain steady

                                                                                                       USD bn                                      Cumulative FII flows (debt+ equity) since 1Jan'20
                   Mar-21                   Mar-20                  Dec-20
                                                                                                                                                   Debt
                                                                                  %                                                                Equity
                   Jan-21                   Feb-21                  19-Apr-21                     40
                                                                                  7.5
                                                                                                  30
                                                                                  7
                                                                                  6.5             20

                                                                                  6               10
                                                                                  5.5              -
                                                                                  5              -10
                                                                                  4.5            -20
                                                                                  4
                                                                                                 -30
                                                                                  3.5

                                                                                                          15-Jan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        15-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             15-Feb
                                                                                                                      15-Feb

                                                                                                                                                                                            15-Sep

                                                                                                                                                                                                              15-Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  15-Jan
                                                                                                                                 15-Mar

                                                                                                                                            15-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        15-Mar
                                                                                                                                                      15-May

                                                                                                                                                                                   15-Aug

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    15-Apr
                                                                                                                                                                         15-Jul

                                                                                                                                                                                                     15-Oct
                                                                                                                                                                15-Jun
          1 year        3 year     5 year       10 year   15 year       30 year

 Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial                                                        Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial

                              …the INR stood at 74.9                                                                             Oil prices rose to USD 67/bbl
          77                                     INR                                            75                                                                                Oil- USD /bbl
          76
                                                                                                65
          75
                                                                                                55
          74
                                                                                                45
          73
                                                                                                35
          72

          71                                                                                    25

          70                                                                                    15
                05-Jan
                19-Jan

                11-Jan
                25-Jan
                07-Jun
                28-Jun
                 12-Jul
                 26-Jul

                05-Oct
                19-Oct

               14-Dec
               28-Dec
                02-Feb

                07-Sep
                20-Sep

                08-Feb
               01-Mar
               15-Mar
               29-Mar
                16-Feb

                12-Apr
                26-Apr
               10-May
               24-May

               09-Aug

               02-Nov
               16-Nov
               30-Nov

               08-Mar
               22-Mar
               24-Aug

                22-Feb

                05-Apr
                19-Apr

                                                                                                                                                               19-Jun

                                                                                                                                                                         19-Jul

                                                                                                                                                                                                     19-Oct

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         19-Dec
                                                                                                       19-Jan

                                                                                                                   19-Feb

                                                                                                                                                                                            19-Sep

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    19-Jan
                                                                                                                               19-Mar

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               19-Feb

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19-Mar
                                                                                                                                          19-Apr

                                                                                                                                                     19-May

                                                                                                                                                                                                               19-Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       19-Apr
                                                                                                                                                                                  19-Aug
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                29
Guidelines for surveillance extended till 30 Apr’21
                                                                               Unlock 1.0 : 1 - 8Jun'20
Allowed                  Hotels, restaurants and other hospitality services, Shopping malls / Religious places and places of worship for public
Night curfew             9 pm to 5 am: All India except essential activities
Shut                     Containment zones except essential activities
Allowed                  Intra-state and inter-state movement of people and goods. No pass necessary
                                                                                Unlock 2.0 : 1Jul’20
Shut                     Inside containment zones, lockdown measures have been extended till July 31
Shut                     Schools, colleges and coaching institutions will remain closed till July 31
Shut                     Metro rail, cinema halls, gymnasiums, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres, bars
Allowed                  Shops outside containment zones can have more than five persons at a time
Flights                  Domestic flights will be further expanded while international air travel will continue in a limited manner under the Vande Bharat mission
Night curfew             Timings are being further relaxed to 10 pm to 5 am
                                                                                Unlock 3.0: 1Aug’20
Allowed                  Interstate travelling without restrictions
Allowed                  Opening of yoga institutes and gymnasiums from 5 Aug’20
Shut                     Schools, colleges, metro rail service, cinema halls, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres
Night curfew             Removed
                                                                                Unlock 4.0: 1 Sep’20
Allowed                  Metro rail services from 7 Sep’20
Allowed                  Social/academic/sports/entertainment/cultural/religious/political functions allowed with a cap of 100 people from 21 Sep’20
                         States, UTs may permit upto 50% of teaching, non-teaching staff to be called to school s / Students of Class 9-12 can visit schools on voluntary basis to clear
Allowed
                         doubts
Allowed                  Open air theatres from 21 Sep’20
Shut                     Schools/Colleges/Cinemas/Swimming Pools/Theatres/Entertainment Parks/International Travel
Lockdown                 No lockdown outside of containment zones (without govt.’s consultation)
                                                                    Unlock 5.0: 1 Oct’20 / Unlock 6.0: 1 Nov’20
Allowed                  Cinemas/ theatres/ multiplexes permitted to open with upto 50% capacity
Allowed                  Schools / Colleges allowed to reopen from 15 Oct with voluntary attendance (states have flexibility to decide)
Allowed                  Swimming pools may be used for training of sportspersons
Allowed                  Entertainment parks permitted to open
Shut                     Ban on international commercial flights extended till 31 Oct
                                                            Unlock 7.0: 1 Dec’20 / Guidelines for Surveillance 1 Jan’21
Allowed                  Cinemas/ theatres/ multiplexes permitted to open with upto 50% capacity
                         Social/ religious/ sports/ entertainment/ educational/ cultural/ religious gatherings, with up to a maximum of 50 % of the hall capacity, with a ceiling of 200
Allowed
                         persons in closed spaces (ceiling can be reduced to 100 by states)
Allowed                  Swimming pools may be used for training of sportspersons
Shut                     Suspension of scheduled international flights till 31 Dec’20. but Vande Bharat Mission/travel bubbles will continue (UK flights banned till 7 Jan’21)
Lockdown                 States may impose local restrictions such as night curfews but cannot impose any local lockdown without consultation with the Centre
                                                              Guidelines for Surveillance 1 Feb’21/1-Mar’21/1Apr’21
Allowed                  Cinema halls/theatres can operate with more than 50% of capacity
Allowed                  Opening of swimming pools for all and exhibitions
States                   States can impose local curbs / "Test-Track-Treat“ - Each state and UT to ensure the proportion of RT-PCR tests is 70 per cent or more
Shut                     International flights banned till 30 Apr’21
                                                                                                                                                                                       30
Source News18, JM Financial
Refer to our other earlier tracker reports
1.     The COVID-19 Files: Your weekly update on COVID-19
2.     The COVID-19 Files: Unveiling relief measures 2.0
3.     The COVID-19 Files- End of fiscal stimulus in India?
4.     The COVID Files- More economic indicators showing improvement
5.     The COVID-19 Files-From Lockdown 4.0 to Unlock 1.0
6.     The COVID-19 Files- Improvement in most economic indicators
7.     The COVID-19 Files- India now ranks 4th in the global COVID-19 cases
8.     The COVID-19 Files: India COVID-19 cases cross 0.4mn mark
9.     The COVID-19 Files: Daily growth in cases inches up
10.    The Covid-19 Files | India replaces Russia as 3rd worse-hit COVID-19 nation
11.    The Covid-19 Files | Improvement in consumption indicators flattening?
12.    The COVID-19 Files: Cases in India cross the 1mn mark
13.    The COVID-19 Files: Daily cases growth surges back to 3.7%
14.    The COVID-19 Files: Unlock 3.0 begins
15.    The COVID-19 Files: Covid cases growth moderating, recovery remains gradual
16.    The COVID-19 Files: Consumption indicators hold up momentum for 3rd consecutive week
17.    The COVID-19 Files: Peaking awaited: Growth in new cases slows further
18.    The COVID-19 files - Unlock 4.0 begins
19.    The COVID-19 files - India overtakes Brazil as the second worst-hit COVID-19 nation
20.    The COVID-19 files - Slower testing, delayed peaking & lagging recovery
21.    The COVID-19 files - Slight moderation in India’s new cases trajectory
22.    The COVID-19 Files - Temporary peaking for India?
23.    The Covid-19 Files - Unlock 5.0: Seemingly peaking trajectory vs. slowing testing growth
24.    The Covid-19 Files | Sustained recovery in indicators continues
25.    The Covid-19 Files | Growth in daily cases falls below 1%
26.    The Covid-19 Files | Daily cases continue to taper off
27.    The COVID-19 Files | Unlock 6 begins
28.    The Covid-19 Files | Third wave in Delhi hindering decline in the all-India daily case growth
29.    The COVID-19 Files | Fresh waves of infections & cooling momentum in recovery?
30.    The COVID-19 Files | Unlock 7.0
31.    The Covid-19 Files | Can we hope for a better December?
32.    The Covid-19 Files | Active cases fall to mid-Jul’20 levels
33.    The Covid-19 Files | New coronavirus variant in UK: Renewed trouble for the world?
34.    The Covid-19 Files | The COVID-19 Files- India's new cases lowest since Jun'20
35.    The Covid-19 Files | India approves two vaccines
36.    The Covid-19 Files | Vaccination drive to begin from 16 Jan’21
37.    The Covid-19 Files | Vaccination drive begins..
38.    The Covid-19 Files | World’s fastest vaccination roll-out; Active cases at Jun’20 levels
39.    The Covid-19 Files | Globally new cases on the downward trajectory, economic recovery steady
40.    The Covid-19 Files | Steady growth in economic indicators for Feb’21 so far
41.    The Covid-19 Files | Covid cases rise again..
42.    The Covid-19 Files | Active cases at 0.17mn, up 12% this week vs. 7% last week
43.    The Covid-19 Files | Active cases rise by 12% this week to 0.19mn
44.    The Covid-19 Files | New cases rise but growth in some economic indicators better until mid-Mar’21 vs. Feb’21
45.    The Covid-19 Files | Active cases rise by 53% this week
46.    The Covid-19 Files | New daily cases rise above previous peak in some states
47.    The Covid-19 Files | New cases under 2nd wave now higher than previous peak
48.    The Covid-19 Files | Additional Lockdowns? The interplay between the 2nd COVID-19 wave, vaccination & health infra

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JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited
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Rating                                Meaning
Buy                                   Total expected returns of more than 10% for large-cap stocks* and REITs and more than 15% for all other stocks, over the next twelve months. Total expected return includes dividend yields.
Hold                                  Price expected to move in the range of 10% downside to 10% upside from the current market price for large-cap* stocks and REITs and in the range of 10% downside to 15% upside from the
                                      current market price for all other stocks, over the next twelve months.
Sell                                  Price expected to move downwards by more than 10% from the current market price over the next twelve months.

  * Large-cap stocks refer to securities with market capitalisation in excess of INR200bn. REIT refers to Real Estate Investment Trusts.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                               32
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