August 2020 Currency outlook - Market insight into global currencies
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USD
CAD
GBP
EUR
CHF
August 2020 PLN
CZK
Currency outlook AUD
Market insight into global currencies
JPY
CNY
NZD
SGD
MXNUSD
USD
By Joe Manimbo, Currency Strategist – North America
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
A sharp souring in sentiment knocked the U.S. currency to In addition to pandemic and economic forces, the greenback
03 ISM manufacturing
fresh pandemic lows. The dollar tumbled as accelerating could also take its cues from geopolitical drivers like the
Mon index
coronavirus cases in the U.S. dampened prospects of a deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China following
EUR
07 Nonfarm payrolls
marked revival in growth over the coming months. In Europe, the closure of key consulates in Houston and Chengdu. While
Fri meanwhile, growth prospects brightened after the EU agreed the dollar’s outlook has darkened, it could benefit if U.S. data
to a historic fiscal package to help put the bloc on a smoother improves and if America slows the rapid spread of the virus.
11 PPI path to recovery. Any cooling of the risk rally on Wall Street might also prove CHF
Tue dollar-supportive.
y Bearish sign: The U.S. dollar index broke below its pandemic
12 low of 94.65, leaving it vulnerable to further weakness over y Dollar-negative political uncertainty could rise as America’s
Wed
CPI
the short run. presidential election in early November draws closer. PLN
y Saying “it’s not the right time,” President Donald Trump y The dollar index has shed around 10% from its March peak.
14 Retail sales canceled the Republican National Convention that was set
Fri y Year to date, the dollar index is down about 3%.
for August 24-27 in Jacksonville, Florida. CZK
19 FOMC minutes y A rise in U.S. weekly jobless claims, the first in months,
Wed
suggested July hiring could be slower than June’s record Source: Reuters, 2018
27 Q2 GDP 2nd est.
surge of 4.8 million.
AUD
Thu
28
Fri
Personal spending
JPY
Economic data EUR/USD (12 months) CNY
1.16
Base Rate: 0-0.25%
GDP: -5.0% (Q1)
1.14
NZD
1.12
Inflation: 1.0%
1.10
Unemployment: 11.1%
1.08
SGD
Trade Balance: -$54.6 Bn 1.06
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNCAD
USD
By Joe Manimbo, Currency Strategist – North America
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
A weaker greenback and stronger oil proved a recipe for While Canada’s economy has turned the corner, the outlook
05 Trade balance Canadian dollar outperformance. Canada’s dollar climbed for growth remains uncertain, particularly as its largest
Wed
to early June highs as the broadly weighted U.S. dollar index trading partner, the U.S., struggles to contain the coronavirus.
EUR
07 Employment
plunged to two-year lows. Oil extended a rebound with prices Consequently, a key focus will be on coming data. Economic
Fri pushing above $40 with increased frequency, the highest since indicators, commodity markets and global developments
March. A bounce back in Canadian data also proved supportive should offer plenty to drive the C$.
11 House starts of the nation’s currency. y An Aug. 7 employment report will shed light on the
CHF
Tue
y Canada enjoyed a record pace of hiring in June when the sustainability of record job growth in June.
19 economy created more than 950,000 jobs. y Global developments, such as deteriorating U.S.-China
Wed
CPI
y The jump in total inflation to a 0.7% annual rate in June relations, will be important for commodity-correlated PLN
from -0.4% in May marked the largest increase in 9 years. currencies.
21 Retail sales
Fri y The Bank of Canada forecast low interest rates for longer as y Despite USD/CAD’s struggles of late, it retains a YTD gain
it expects an uneven recovery. of about 3.0%. CZK
27 Q2 Current account
Thu
28 Q2 GDP AUD
Fri
31
Mon
PPI
JPY
Economic data USD/CAD (12 months) CNY
1.46
Base Rate: 0.25%
GDP: -8.2% (Q1)
1.40
NZD
Inflation: 0.7%
Unemployment: 12.3%
1.34
SGD
Trade Balance: -C$0.68 Bn 1.28
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNGBP
USD
By George Vessey, Currency Analyst – United Kingdom
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
Sterling remains driven by risk perceptions, and despite Hopes of a sustained economic recovery will be at the
06 BOE policy meeting Covid-19 cases rising globally and geopolitical tensions flaring forefront of investors’ minds this month with economic data
Thu
with China, risk appetite remains elevated. The pound has closely scrutinised. Second quarter GDP results will thus be
EUR
11 Average earnings
benefited considerably against the weak and unpopular under the microscope. The Bank of England will announce
Tue US Dollar and hurdled the key 200-day moving average at its monetary policy decision as well as the highly anticipated
$1.27 and climbed nearly 3% higher on the month. GBP/EUR updated economic forecasts. The looming risk of a new wave
12 Q2 GDP was pressured lower though as the EU agreed its historic of coronavirus cases may limit any sterling uplift though given CHF
Wed coronavirus recovery fund. Lockdown restrictions were eased its correlation with overall risk sentiment. UK PM Boris Johnson
in the UK and focus shifted to economic data. Retail sales missed his July target to achieve a trade deal with the EU and
17 Weekly UK-EU
Mon trade talks
provided evidence of a strong rebound with a huge 13.9% jump
on top of the 12% bounce recorded last month.
although talks will continue from August 17, both sides expect
the stalemate to last until September.
PLN
19 Inflation (CPI) y Deadlocked UK-EU talks increased fears of a no-trade deal y GBP/USD may make a run at $1.29 if US Dollar weakness
Wed
scenario, with the UK government warning businesses to persists. However, out of the last 20 years, the month of
prepare to default onto World Trade Organisation terms. August has resulted in a GBP/USD depreciation 70% of CZK
21 Retail sales the time.
Fri y UK-US trade talks also took a turn for the worse, lowering Source: Reuters, 2018
expectations for a deal this year. y The stronger Euro may drag GBP/EUR to €1.08 if current
21 Flash PMIs y The UK government held its highest debt to GDP ratio since trends prevail, though €1.09 has acted as a technical floor AUD
Fri
1961 due to the extraordinary borrowing to help support during its recent 4-month downtrend.
21 the economy.
Fri
Consumer confidence
JPY
Economic data GBP/USD (12 months) CNY
1.34
Base Rate: 0.1%
GDP: -1.7%
1.30
NZD
1.26
Inflation: 0.6%
1.22
Unemployment: 3.9%
1.18
SGD
Trade Balance: £4.3 Bn 1.14
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNEUR
USD
By Guillaume Dejean, Currency Strategist – Europe, Middle East, Africa
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
What a month for the euro, which bounced up dramatically in We cannot overlook the euro’s upward trend which intensified
05 Final PMI survey (July) July after a broad surge of confidence in the European outlook last month. There is still broad room to go higher but the
Wed
from investors. While the pandemic looks to be under control currency will have to confirm recent bullish expectations as
EUR
05 Retail sales
in Europe, there has been a rebound of the activity since May the temptation to take profits at such a high level (1.15/1.16)
Wed which is fueling speculations about a “V-shaped” recovery increases. The volatility of the euro will likely be driven
in the area. That sentiment was notably consolidated by the by the divergence of economic momentum between the
11 German ZEW index signature of an exclusive deal by EU members on an exclusive EU and the United States. However, fluctuation could CHF
Tue €750Bn stimulus program. also be dependent on global risk-on/off sentiment that is
connected to 1) the vaccine race, 2) US-China tensions, and
14 Second estimate y EU leaders went beyond divergences to agree on a
Fri of Q2 GDP recovery plan that mixed grants and credits to support the 3) stock exchange volatility.
PLN
European countries most impacted during that crisis. y After bouncing by more than 7% since May, the eruo’s rally
20 ECB Minutes
y Flash July estimates of PMI surveys hinted at the first growth could wane without new catalysts. In the absence of key
Thu (July meeting) events before September, corrective movements could occur.
of activity in the Eurozone since February, and the largest CZK
21 Flash PMI surveys monthly expansion for more than two years. y The pace of recovery in Europe is a key driver of the
Fri (August) y A week before the end of July, the EUR/USD was on demand for euro. The evolution of the health situation in Source: Reuters, 2018
the area as well as the threat of a second wave is still on.
21 Moody’s credit rating track to register its largest monthly rebound since
January 2018 (3%) and oscillated at its highest level since y Over the last month, the euro goes hand in hand with
AUD
Fri on France
September 2018 ($1.16). equities. Any signs of nervousness in those markets would
22 Final Q2 GDP probably put brakes on the climb of the euro.
Sat in Germany JPY
28 Economic sentiment
Fri
Economic data GBP/EUR (12 months) CNY
1.21
Base Rate: 0.0%
GDP (annual basis): -3.1% (Q1) 1.17 NZD
Inflation (annual basis): 0.3% 1.13
Unemployment: 7.4% 1.09 SGD
Trade Balance: €9.4 Bn 1.05
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNCHF
USD
By Adam Ma, Currency Strategist – United Kingdom
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
Market stabilisation has seen reduced demand for safe haven The central bank’s intervention could be its undoing
03 Manufacturing PMI currency with the Swiss franc falling against its peers. EUR/CHF with reports that the US could label them as a currency
Mon
is up circa 1% on the month but is yet to reclaim the high saw manipulator. The bank has said that intervention is necessary
EUR
03 CPI
in June. Though a reduced demand for safe haven currency to combat the currency’s strong appreciation, but it is by
Mon seems to be the existing mood, Brexit concerns remain a no means trying to artificially keep the currency weak. The
constant threat with recent talks between the two parties potential tension which could rise between the two nations
07 Forex reserves hitting another dispute over fishing laws. could lead to further volatility in the FX market. CHF
Fri
y USD/CHF has fallen over 2.5% since the begging of July. y EUR/CHF remains tightly range bound supported around
10 The weakness in the dollar has been the main driver for this the SFr1.07 mark and struggling to break through the
Mon
Unemployment Rate
currency pair as the USD Index falls close to 2-year lows. SFr1.08 handle. PLN
y The Swiss National Bank remains a dominant force in the
27 GDP FX markets with the stance on FX intervention unwavering.
Thu
CZK
28 KOF indicator
Fri Source: Reuters, 2018
31 Retail sales AUD
Mon
JPY
Economic data USD/CHF (12 months) CNY
1.01
Base Rate: -0.75%
GDP: -1.3%
0.98
NZD
Inflation: -1.3%
Unemployment: 3.3%
0.95
SGD
Trade Balance: – 0.92
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNPLN
USD
By Boris Kovacevic, Currency Strategist – Central and Eastern Europe
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
Emerging market currencies have experienced swings and What is good for the Eurozone, is good for Central Europe. This
03 Markit Manufacturing
volatility bursts since the beginning of the pandemic. Investors mantra has for now held up to reality, given the appreciative
Mon PMI
were caught up in a broad sell-off of risk assets and did not boost the regional currencies have experienced following the
EUR
14 GDP
discriminate based on fundamental valuations and the current European agreement regarding the budget and the pandemic
Fri positioning. July stands in contrast to the previous months package. With no monetary policy changes expected in
and has been characterized by a broad depreciation of the Poland in the next couple of months, the focus will again be
17 Net inflation US-dollar. This in turn helped the polish Zloty gain ground on global developments. Negative rates in Poland make the CHF
Mon against the euro, US-dollar and British pound. The current risk zloty dependent on a strengthening EUR/USD and steadily
sentiment and the better-than-expected economic data in improving global risk sentiment.
19
Wed
Employment Central Europe has so far compensated for the fact that the
region has the lowest real interest rate in the EM-World.
y With the latest increase in inflation, it will be interesting how PLN
prices have further developed in July given that oil prices
19 Corporate sector y Better-than-expected economic data releases underpinned have started to stagnate.
Wed wages the strength of the polish zloty. retail sales, industrial
production and employment data all surprised to the upside.
y A new patch of data will show how strong the rebound of CZK
21 Retail sales
the polish economy really was after the first attempts of
Fri y Inflationary pressures have collapsed around the world, but opening the country. Source: Reuters, 2018
deflation is still not in sight in Central Europe. Net inflation in
25 Unemployment Poland jumped to 4.1%, the highest level since November 2011.
y EUR/PLN could test the level at 4.37, which seems to pose as
a major support for the currency pair.
AUD
Tue
y The polish zloty has strengthened against the major
currencies but lagged in comparison with its regional peers.
JPY
Economic data USD/PLN (12 months) CNY
4.30
Base Rate: 0.11%
GDP: 2.0%
4.10
NZD
Inflation: 4.1%
Unemployment: 6.0%
3.90
SGD
Trade Balance: Zl 5.5 Bn 3.70
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNCZK
USD
By Boris Kovacevic, Currency Strategist – Central and Eastern Europe
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
The improved global risk sentiment is leading the recovery, It seems that markets are working with the baseline
03 Markit PMI but the government stimulus and the character of the current assumption of a somewhat smooth economic recovery,
Mon
recession is affecting industries differently, which creates highlighted in the increased stock market valuations and
EUR
05 Retail sales
asymmetries. Consumer driven economies have seen a quicker capital movement towards emerging markets. Still, leading
Wed rebound, given that the manufacturing industry is largely indicators seem to suggest that the recent recovery of the
dependent on global trade flows. This can especially be seen global economy could face some tough times ahead. The
06 Industrial output in the export-oriented Czech Republic, where industrial output Czech central bank has maintained its mantra of keeping CHF
Thu and car registrations are down 25% and 5% year-on-year the exchange rate stable, which explains the low correlation
respectably. between the crown and Czech data points.
06 CNB interest
Thu rate decision y The silver lining is that both indicators improved y Global developments will be the main focal point for the PLN
significantly in June, with car registrations experiencing a currency if the CNB does not surprise markets with an
13 CPI 55% boost on a monthly basis. unexpected move in August.
Thu
y Inflation has started to increase again, following three
consecutive falls.
y Further increases of inflationary pressures could be regarded
as a problem by the central bank, even though movements
CZK
y Following the sell-off in March, the Czech crown has above the upper inflation target are currently not expected. Source: Reuters, 2018
been able to appreciate against the euro for the fourth
consecutive month. The positive movement highlights the
y The Czech crown maintains a favourable position in the
region given the lack of quantitative easing in the Czech
AUD
global appetite for yield, even with real rates being highly Republic. EUR/CZK still highlights a negative correlation
negative in the Czech Republic. with EUR/USD and is highly dependent on the broad
US‑dollar weakness. JPY
Economic data USD/CZK (12 months) CNY
26.0
Base Rate: 0.25%
GDP: -2.0% 25.0 NZD
Inflation: 3.3% 24.0
Unemployment: 3.7% 23.0 SGD
Trade Balance: Cz 14.3 Bn 22.0
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNAUD
USD
By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
The Australian dollar was higher for the fourth month running The AUD was supported by the large rise in precious metals last
04 Retail sales in July. week with gold’s climb to nine-year highs and silver’s move to
Tue
The AUDUSD climbed to the highest level since April last year seven-year highs driving the AUD.
EUR
04 Trade balance as the US dollar weakened. Importantly, gold and silver’s move higher was partially due to
Tue the weakening of the US dollar.
Economic data remained mostly upbeat despite growing fears
04 RBA decision
about the long-term impact of COVID-19. Looking forward, US-China tensions, and global risk sentiment, CHF
Tue While unemployment climbed to near 30-year highs, the rate, will likely continue to drive the AUD.
at 7.4%, remains well below comparable nations. y The Reserve Bank of Australia next meets on 4 August.
13
Thu
Employment
y The AUD was higher versus most other currencies with y RBA policy has been supportive of the AUD. The central PLN
the Aussie at one-year highs versus the British pound and bank has signalled it is less likely to provide further
18 RBA minutes Japanese yen. monetary stimulus. Instead, RBA governor Philip Lowe
Tue urged the Morrison government to spend big to support the
employment market, with Lowe saying fiscal stimulus was CZK
likely to be more effective.
Source: Reuters, 2018
AUD
JPY
Economic data AUD/USD (12 months) CNY
0.72
Base Rate: 0.25%
GDP: 1.4%
0.69
NZD
0.66
Inflation: 1.8%
0.63
Unemployment: 7.4%
0.60
SGD
Trade Balance: AUD 8.0 Bn 0.57
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNJPY
USD
By Guillaume Dejean, Currency Strategist – Europe, Middle East, Africa
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
The Japanese currency was on the back foot against many Increased conflict between the United States and China is
03 Final manufacturing
of its peers – besides the US dollar – last month. Appetite concerning for markets. A tougher stance from the White
Mon PMI survey (July)
for risk sharply increased thanks to both encouraging signs House may reflect an electoral card played by the US
EUR
17 Flash Q2 GDP
from COVID vaccine projects and new evidence that global President to boost his popularity ahead of the election in
Mon recovery is gradually gaining traction in China and Europe. The November. While we are still in a market environment that is
intensification of the pandemic across the globe, especially fluctuating between hope of a rapid recovery and fears of
19 Trade statistics in America, has increased cautiousness among investors a global second wave of COVID-19, an escalation of tensions CHF
Wed and dragged down the USD/JPY rate. A gradual escalation between US and China could pluck investor’s confidence and
of tensions between the USA and China has slightly shaken trigger a demand for yen.
21
Fri
Inflation markets and underpinned a late rebound of the yen. y The current high valuation of stock markets lies more on PLN
y The yen suffered until -2% of losses against the euro and the UK expectations than fundamentals. A sharp correction could
21 Flash manufacturing pound and -3% against the Australian dollar before recovering occur in case of resurgence of risks or evidences the recovery
Fri PMI (August) lately on the back of a resurgence of China-US tensions. is stalling.
CZK
31 Unemployment rate
y After a historic contraction in Q1, the Chinese economy y The volatility of the yen is mainly dependent on the risk on/off
Mon experienced a return of growth in Q2 (+3.2%) while in Europe sentiment of investors. Eyes will keep on scrutinizing headlines Source: Reuters, 2018
activity surveys showed an acceleration of the recovery on the evolution of the pandemic and the vaccine race.
31 Industrial output in June-July. y The Japanese currency suffered significantly as optimism took
AUD
Mon
y The announcement of a final deal on a European stimulus the upper hand on global risks, but the balance is fragile and
package pushed up the EUR/JPY to a 14-month high above ¥124. can tilt to the downside at any time.
The USD/JPY rate tumbled to a 4-month low (¥106) in late July. JPY
Economic data GBP/JPY (12 months) CNY
149
Base Rate: -0.1%
GDP (annual basis): -1.7% (Q1)
144
NZD
139
Inflation (annual basis): 0.1%
134
Unemployment: 2.9%
129
SGD
Trade Balance: ¥-269 Bn 124
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNCNY
USD
By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
The Chinese yuan climbed to four-month highs versus the US This month, and for most of the rest of the year, geopolitical
03 Caixin Manufacturing
dollar last month mainly due to greenback weakness rather concerns around the US-China relationship are likely to drive
Mon PMI
than any CNY strength. the CNY.
EUR
05 Caixin Services PMI The Chinese yuan remains trapped between two competing The upcoming US presidential elections have seen increased
Wed influences. On the one hand, better economic data has anti-China rhetoric from both leading candidates.
07 Trade balance
signalled an improvement in local growth. However, ongoing
tensions between the US and China have pressured the CNY.
y The weaker US dollar has seen the USDCNY fall well below CHF
Fri the critical 7.20 level at 12-year highs. However, geopolitical
y The Chinese economy beat expectations in the June tensions could see the market return to these levels.
10 quarter with a stronger 11.5% growth rate, well above the
Mon
CPI
9.6% expected. The update was closely watched as a guide
y Chinese industrial production, due on 14 August, will be
closely watched for signs of the Chinese recovery.
PLN
to how the Chinese economy has recovered from COVID-19.
14 Industrial production
Fri
CZK
Source: Reuters, 2018
AUD
JPY
Economic data USD/CNY (12 months) CNY
7.20
Base Rate: 3.85%
GDP: 3.2% 7.10 NZD
Inflation: 2.5% 7.00
Unemployment: 3.8% 6.90 SGD
Trade Balance: USD 46.4 Bn 6.80
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNNZD
USD
By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
The New Zealand dollar was stronger in July for the Global markets are likely to be a key driver for the NZD. The
04 Dairy prices fourth‑straight month, helped by a weaker US dollar. kiwi has been supported by better global sentiment, and as
Tue
NZ economic data was mixed but started to see signs global shares climb, so does the NZD.
EUR
05 Employment of recovery. The improvement in global commodities has also supported
Wed the NZD. Dairy prices have also benefited with the Global
Building consents jumped 36% while the BusinessNZ
12 RBNZ announcement
manufacturing index rose to 56.3. Dairy Trade index up almost 10% in July.
CHF
Wed y The NZDUSD hit five-month highs while the kiwi climbed y The local economic focus will be on the key employment
versus most other currencies. reading on 5 August. How has COVID-19 impacted the
18 jobs market?
Tue
Dairy prices
y The NZDAUD was a notable loser last month as the Reserve
y The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on 12 August.
PLN
Bank of New Zealand signalled a greater willing to step up
24 Retail sales monetary stimulus measures.
Mon
CZK
26 Trade balance
Wed Source: Reuters, 2018
AUD
JPY
Economic data NZD/USD (12 months) CNY
0.70
Base Rate: 0.25%
GDP: 1.5%
0.67
NZD
0.64
Inflation: 1.5%
0.61
Unemployment: 4.2%
0.58
SGD
Trade Balance: NZD 426 M 0.55
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNSGD
USD
By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
The Singapore dollar was mixed in July with small gains seen The key focus for markets this month will be the major
03 Manufacturing PMI versus the weakening US dollar but losses in other markets. technical support seen at 1.3800 on USDSGD. A break below
Mon
USDSGD fell back to four-month lows as a weaker US dollar this level could see further SGD strength versus the US dollar.
EUR
05 Retail sales drove this market. However, renewed tensions between the US SGD, like many other regional Asian currencies, will remain
Wed and China pressured the trade-dependent currency. driven by global risk appetitive. Any weakness in global
17 Exports
y The SGD was weaker versus other markets, hitting 18-month sharemarkets could pressure the SGD.
CHF
Mon lows versus the euro and five-year lows versus the Swiss franc. y The SGD remains notably vulnerable to US-China tensions.
As the US presidential election looms, an increasingly
24 belligerent US political environment could weigh on the
Mon
CPI
US dollar. PLN
26 Manufacturing
Wed output
CZK
Source: Reuters, 2018
AUD
JPY
Economic data USD/SGD (12 months) CNY
1.46
SIBOR: 0.44%
GDP: -12.6% 1.43 NZD
Inflation: -0.2% 1.40
Unemployment: 2.4% 1.37 SGD
Trade Balance: SGD 4.9 Bn 1.34
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNMXN
USD
By Joe Manimbo, Currency Strategist – North America
CAD
August events July review August risk events and key themes GBP
Mexico’s peso appreciated against its sputtering U.S. Will dollar pessimism converge with Mexican recovery
03 Markit Manufacturing
counterpart. The greenback’s slide to 2018 lows helped put a optimism to keep the peso biased higher? While Mexico’s
Mon PMI
floor under some emerging markets. Oil outperformed which economy stands to benefit from the loosening of coronavirus
EUR
07 Inflation
also translated into a tailwind for energy‑linked currencies restrictions, the recovery is not assured in the months ahead.
Fri like the peso. But decidedly weak domestic economic Hopes of a sustained economic upturn were dealt a setback
fundamentals suggested the peso wasn’t out of the woods. after May growth underwhelmed forecasts of a 0.7% decline.
10 Industrial output y Broad based dollar weakness helped the peso outperform y The peso’s outlook may hinge on the durability of the risk
CHF
Mon
is U.S. rival. rally that’s buoyed Wall Street.
13 y Mexican fundamentals remained in need to central bank y Coming data will help guide recovery expectations and
Thu
Interest rate decision
support as Latin America’s No. 2 economy contracted again the outlook for interest rates which have been slashed five PLN
in May when it fell 2.6%. times this year.
21 Retail sales
Fri y Mexico’s economy contracted at a record rate of 17.3% in April. y USD/MXN slipped around 4% in July, but holds a YTD lead
of more than 15%. CZK
25 Jobless rate
Tue Source: Reuters, 2018
26 Q2 GDP AUD
Wed
JPY
Economic data USD/MXN (12 months) CNY
26.0
Base rate: 5.0%
GDP: -1.2% 24.0 NZD
Inflation: 3.71% 22.0
Unemployment: 3.3% 20.0 SGD
Trade Balance: -4.06 Bn 18.0
A S O N D J F M A M J J
MXNDon’t let the currency
market detract from
your bottom line.
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