Building Bancroft Project Business Opportunity Assessment Residential Analysis - Bancroft, Ontario BUILDING BANCROFT
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Building Bancroft Project
Business Opportunity Assessment
Residential Analysis
Bancroft, Ontario
BUILDING BANCROFT
N. BARRY LYON CONSULTANTS LIMITED
APRIL 2010
February 21, 2010 Mr. Greg Black Project Manager Build Bancroft Project PO Box 790 24 Flint Avenue Bancroft, Ontario K0L 1C0 Dear Greg, Re: Building Bancroft Project, Business Opportunity Assessment, Residential Analysis Please find attached our final report on the feasibility of residential development as a component of the Building Bancroft Project. Yours truly, N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited Mark Conway Partner
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 2 2. Site Evaluation ................................................................................................................................ 3 3. Demogrphic and Economic Profile ................................................................................................. 9 4. Competetive Market Review ........................................................................................................ 17 5. Product & Concept Development ................................................................................................ 25 6. Financial Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 28 7. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 30 Appendix A – Detailed Financial Analysis ............................................................................................. 31 Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | i February, 2010
1. INTRODUCTION N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited (NBLC) has been retained by Building Bancroft to undertake a strategic assessment of the market potential for residential development in downtown Bancroft, Ontario. The Town of Bancroft has initiated the Building Bancroft Project as it looks to rebuild and revitalize its downtown, in an effort to counter population loss and a declining economy. A residential component is viewed as highly desirable in terms of generating activity and animation in the downtown as well as generating revenue from the sale of land. The aim of this study is to review the prevailing economic and demographic characteristics of Bancroft and then, with these characteristics in mind, work to develop an appropriate residential development program, that could be incorporated into a larger scheme. The full scheme could include features such as a new community centre, municipal offices and a major regional tourist attraction. Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 2 February, 2010
2. SITE EVALUATION
The Town of Bancroft is located within Hastings County in Central Ontario. The town is built in the
York River Valley, centred on the intersection of Highways 28 and 62. Positioned on the southern
edge of the Canadian Shield, the landscape provides a picturesque natural setting, offering various
outdoor recreation opportunities, including: boating, swimming, hiking, rock climbing, golf,
kayaking, cross‐country skiing, and snowmobiling.
Downtown Bancroft
The history of Bancroft is one steeped in milling, mining and the railroad; a lot of which is currently
still reflected in the Town. The Old Station is home to the Art Gallery of Bancroft and the Bancroft
Mineral Museum. The Mineral Museum plays homage to the Town’s mining history displaying
locally collected mineral samples. Bancroft is often referred to as the “Mineral Capital of Canada”
due to the variety of minerals found in the area, and each year hosts the popular “Gemboree”
festival in late July. Also, the Hastings Heritage Trail follows the region’s abandoned rail line,
providing 350 linear kilometres of multi‐use recreational space.
The Old Station & Hastings Heritage Trail
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February, 2010
2.1 Location
As illustrated in Figure 1, the Town of Bancroft is located almost an equal distance between Toronto
and Ottawa, and just over an hour away from Peterborough, the closest major urban centre. The
following table outlines the drive‐times to several major centres and attractions from Bancroft.
Table 1
Drive Times From Bancroft
Distance Drive‐
Location Direction
(km) Time
Toronto SW 240 2:45
Ottawa E 225 3:00
Kingston SE 190 2:30
Belleville SE 115 1:40
Pembroke NE 160 1:55
Peterborough SW 105 1:15
Haliburton W 65 1:00
Huntsville NW 170 2:10
U.S. Border (Thousand Islands) SE 230 2:50
Algonquin Park NW 70 1:00
Figure 1
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February, 2010
The area road network is centered on the intersection of Highway 28 and Highway 62. These roads
provide connections to Peterborough and Belleville, and connect to Highways 115 and 401
respectively. Highway 28 continues east from Bancroft providing connections towards Ottawa and
the Ottawa River Valley.
2.2 Local Community Context
2.2.1 Healthcare
Bancroft is well served by healthcare and professional services for a community of its size. The North
Hastings Health Centre is located in Bancroft, and along with the supplementary Bancroft
Professional Centre, combines to provide a full range of medical care and services. Further, local
community groups like Community Care North Hastings provide volunteer‐based support for seniors
and adults with disabilities.
North Hastings Health Centre
The Quinte Health Care North Hastings site is comprised of both the North Hastings District Hospital
and the Hastings Centennial Manor.
• Built in 2002, the North Hastings District Hospital is a six‐bed primary acute care hospital
which operates a 24‐hour emergency ward (including Emergency Obstetrics).
• The hospital’s beds are designated for those patients with medical conditions, as opposed to
surgical. The hospital also provides outreach clinics (Internal Medicine,
Obstetrics/Gynaecology, Urology), support, diagnostic (Radiology, Ultrasound), and
treatment services.
• In addition, the hospital offers Diabetes Education, Nutrition Counselling and manages a
Health Records Department.
• Also, the hospital has a six‐chair Dialysis Unit, reducing the need for patients to travel to
larger urban areas for treatment.
2.2.2 Education
Bancroft is served by the Hastings and Prince Edward District School Board (HPEDSB; public school
system) as well as the Algonquin and Lakeshore Catholic District School Board. Combined, these
school systems serve Bancroft through 6 public schools and one Catholic school, namely:
• Bancroft Public School, junior kindergarten to grade 6;
• Birds Creek Public School, junior kindergarten to grade 6;
• Hermon Public School, junior kindergarten to grade 6;
• North Hastings Senior Elementary School, grades 7 to 8;
• North Hastings High School, grades 9 to 12; and,
• Our Lady of Mercy Catholic School, junior kindergarten to grade 8.
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February, 2010
In terms of post secondary education, Bancroft is home to a satellite campus of Loyalist College. The
Bancroft location offers programs in Nursing, Personal Support Worker, Paramedics, along with
other programs for continuing education and adult literacy. Further, Fleming College has campuses
in Haliburton and Peterborough, and Loyalist College’s main campus is located in Belleville.
Bancroft, like many other communities in Ontario, bas been experiencing declining enrolment in its
public school system. Between the 2007/08 and 2008/09 school years, the HPEDSB experienced a
decline of 327 students at the elementary level, and a further loss of 14 at the local secondary
school level1. The Province’s Accommodation Review Committee process will take place in the
2013/14 school year and will determine the potential for school closures at that time. Until then, the
board will continue to shuffle administration and students between schools in order to maintain
standards.
2.2.3 Shops and Services
Bancroft’s Downtown area boasts a wide array of shopping and service opportunities for its
residents and visitors. The main street comprises a mix of local shops and services and larger
national brands, especially in terms of banks, grocers and hardware/ home improvement retailers.
2.2.4 Parks and Recreation
In addition to nearby Algonquin Park, which covers 7,653 square kilometres, several parks and
community recreational facilities exist within Bancroft. Local recreational opportunities include:
• Bancroft Millennium Park on the York River, this park contains a senior’s clubhouse, band
shell, and walking trails.
• Riverside Park, also on the York River, this park is home to a museum, walking trails and a
playground.
• The Hastings Heritage Trail, which offers 350 linear kilometres of multi‐purpose trails along
an abandoned rail line.
• Eagle’s Nest lookout also has walking/hiking trails, rock climbing, and offers panoramic
views of the York River Valley.
• Two local golf courses, Bancroft Golf Course and Rivers Edge.
• Several community centres and associated facilities are located within Bancroft, these
include:
o The Bancroft Curling Club;
o Bancroft Skating Club;
o Bancroft Tennis Club;
o Bancroft Public Library;
o Club 580 (Senior’s Park);
o North Hastings Community Centre; and,
o Several other community centres are located in the surrounding area (Faraday,
Dungannon, Maynooth, Musclow).
1
Schell, Dan. “Trying to manage declining enrolment,” Bancroft This Week, November 2009.
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February, 2010
2.2.5 Public Transportation While there is not any full service public transit available in Bancroft, Greyhound Bus service does connect Bancroft to locations between Toronto and Pembroke, however service schedules are limited. Local transit for those in need is made available by Bancroft Community Transit, a non‐profit volunteer service. Figure 2 – Map of Key Community Facilities Source: County of Hastings Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 7 February, 2010
2.2.6 Senior’s Housing Supply in Bancroft
Private Facilities
Riverstone Residence
• Riverstone Residence opened in June 2009, after a renovation of what was formerly the
Bancroft Hospital. This residence for healthy elderly individuals has 30 rooms, of which 10
are occupied to date.
• Riverstone provides meals, housekeeping, laundry and a social calendar for its residents.
Prices vary, but average about $2,500 per month. It is expected that while the residence is
very new, price has played a significant role in limiting occupancy rates up to this point
(currently 33% occupied).
Hastings Housing Corporation Facilities
Centennial Manor Long Term Care
• Hastings Centennial Manor is a 110 bed Long Term Care Facility for seniors, attached to the
North Hastings District Hospital. Within this facility are an Activation Department (in charge
of daily activities and Restorative Care); Alzheimer Unit; Dietary Department; 24‐hour
Nursing Department; and, Palliative Care Unit.
Riverside Chateau (25 Station Street)
• This senior’s residence features rental apartments in a two‐storey brick building along the
York River. This housing is generally occupied by active seniors.
R.J. Brooks Living Centre (1 Alice St)
• This county‐run residence is an apartment building for seniors 65 years of age or older.
Generally, residents at R.J. Brooks are active and independent, although some have
homecare support. The building contains 40 suites, which are currently all occupied. Rent is
both geared to income, and market rental rates.
York River Heights Senior Citizens Complex (303 Hastings St N)
• This county‐run residence provides rental housing for a mix of elderly and younger senior
clientele. Generally residents are active and independent, although some have homecare
support. The building contains 32 units, which are all currently rented. Rental structure is
both geared to income, and market rental rates.
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February, 20103. DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC PROFILE
In order to gain a better perspective of the residential market context, the following section
provides an analysis of the socio‐demographic make‐up of the Town of Bancroft, with comparisons
to Hastings County and the Province of Ontario. The analysis examines such variables as population,
immigration, housing characteristics and income levels, based primarily on 2006 Statistics Canada
Census data.
3.1 Population and Age Structure
• Between the 2001 and 2006 Census, Bancroft’s population decreased by 6.1% or 230
people. This decrease is relatively uncommon in Southern Ontario, especially
considering the positive growth experienced in the greater Hastings County (3.6%), or
growth for the Province as a whole (6.6%).
• Compared to Hastings County, and the Provincial breakdown, Bancroft has a small
proportion of its population in the under‐35 demographic. In Bancroft, 35% of the
population is under 35 years of age, compared to 40% at the county level, and 45% in
the province. On the other hand, Bancroft has a notably higher proportion (23%) of its
population in the 65 years of age and older population segment (14% at the Provincial
scale).
• In 2006, Bancroft had a median age of 47, well above the Provincial average of 39.
• Interestingly, between 2001 and 2006, the proportion of Bancroft’s population under
the age of 45 decreased by 7%, while the proportion of Bancroft aged 45 years and
older increased by 8%. The 0‐19 year demographic also declined by 4%, while the 55‐64
age group increased by the same amount.
• While these demographic shifts are also occurring in the County and to a lesser degree
in the Province as a whole, the declines in the younger age groups and increases in the
older age groups are much more pronounced in the Town.
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February, 2010Table 2
Demographic Analysis: Population, Age, Status
Variables Bancroft (Town) Hastings (County) Ontario
Population
Population 2006 3,838 130,474 12,160,285
Pop. % change (2001‐2006) ‐6.1% 3.6% 6.6%
Pop. % change (1996‐2001) 0.2% ‐0.1% 6.1%
Age Structure 2006 (% of population)
0‐19 years 22% 24% 25%
20‐24 years 5% 6% 7%
25‐44 years 20% 25% 28%
45‐54 years 16% 16% 15%
55‐64 years 14% 13% 11%
65+ years 23% 17% 14%
Total: 3,855 130,465 12,151,305
Age Structure 2001 (% of population)
0‐19 years 26% 26% 26%
20‐24 years 4% 6% 6%
25‐44 years 23% 27% 31%
45‐54 years 14% 14% 14%
55‐64 years 11% 11% 9%
65+ years 22% 16% 13%
Total: 4,090 125,915 11,410,050
Source: NBLC & Statistics Canada, 2006, 2001 Census Data
3.2 Mobility
• The root of Bancroft’s lack of population growth is evident in the population’s recent
mobility characteristics. That is, unlike other areas in Southern Ontario, the vast
majority of the Town’s 2006 population are considered to be ‘non‐movers’, i.e. did not
change their place of residence within the proceeding five years. 64% of the Town’s
population were non‐movers compared to 59% in the Province.
• Furthermore, there was very little immigration into Bancroft between 2001 and 2006,
with less than half, 46%, of all movers, moving from outside of Bancroft. In comparison,
55% of the County’s 2006 population were new to the County,
• The vast majority of the Town’s population migrating to Bancroft between 2001 and
2006 were intraprovincial migrants, with only 1% percent of the 2006 population having
moved to Bancroft from outside the province in the past five years, in comparison to
over 3% in the County and over 12% in the Province.
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February, 2010Table 3
Demographic Analysis: Five Year Mobility Rates
Variables Bancroft (Town) Hastings (County) Ontario
Non‐movers 64% 60% 59%
Movers 36% 40% 41%
Non‐migrants 54% 45% 54%
Migrants 46% 55% 46%
Internal migrants 99% 97% 88%
Intraprovincial migrants 99% 92% 95%
Interprovincial migrants 1% 8% 5%
External migrants 1% 3% 12%
Immigrants (2001‐2006) 0% 1% 5%
Source: NBLC & Statsistics Canada, 2006 Census Data
3.3 Housing
• About two thirds (68%) of Bancroft’s housing stock is owned, rather than rented. This is
a slightly lower level of ownership than found in the County (73%) and the Province
(71%), due primarily to lower average income levels and relatively large rental unit
stock.
• Housing typology in Bancroft is biased heavily towards traditional single or semi‐
detached homes, representing 77% of the housing stock. The remaining 22% of
Bancroft’s housing stock is split; 4% row and 22% apartment.
• The Town’s housing split is similar to the County’s but differs considerably from the
Province’s housing stock, with 56% single‐family, 8% row, and 27% in apartment form.
• There is an average of 2.2 persons per household unit (ppu) in Bancroft, much less than
the 2.4, and 2.6 ppus in Hastings County and Ontario, respectively. This low ratio is one
of the lowest in the Province and is indicative of the older population mix in Bancroft,
with the majority of households likely comprised of older couples without children at
home.
• Like Hastings County, almost three quarters of Bancroft’s housing stock was constructed
before 1986, as housing development in the Town (and County) over the past 20 years
has been limited.
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February, 2010Table 4
Demographic Analysis: Housing Tenure, Type, Age
Variables Bancroft (Town) Hastings (County) Ontario
Housing Tenure
Owned 68% 73% 71%
Rented 32% 27% 29%
Type
Single/ Semi‐detached house 77% 75% 62%
Row house 4% 3% 8%
Apartment, excluding duplexes 22% 18% 26%
Average # persons per household 2.2 2.4 2.6
Period of Construction
Before 1986 74% 76% 69%
From 1986 to 2006 26% 24% 31%
Note: Housing type proportions do not add to 100% and should be considered approximate,
values are sourced directly from Statistics Canada community profile data.
Source: NBLC & Statistics Canada, 2006 Census Data
3.4 Income and Labour
• The most recent census data indicates that Bancroft’s largest employment sectors are
manufacturing and construction (17% of the labour force); health and education (19%);
and, wholesale and retail trade (20%).
• At the county level, these sectors are also the largest; however the distribution of the
labour force is slightly different between these categories, with larger proportions active
in manufacturing and construction. The Town also has a much larger proportion of the
labour force active in primary industries than in both the County and Province.
• Census data indicates that the Town of Bancroft has experienced a decline in several
industry categories between 2001 and 2006. Over this time period, the largest
employment losses occurred in the business services industry (10% decline); finance and
real estate (5% loss); and in the manufacturing and construction industries (4% loss).
Employment in the agriculture and resource based industries saw the largest
employment increase in Bancroft between 2001 and 2006 (2% growth). Overall,
employment in Bancroft experienced a cumulative decline of 17% between the 2001
and 2006.
• The County of Hastings also experienced employment loss between 2001 and 2006. Like
Bancroft, the largest decline was in the business services sector. In fact, no industry
categories experienced growth at the county level between 2001 and 2006, with
employment in the county declining by over 25%, larger than the decrease experienced
by the Town.
• Median household income in Bancroft ($38,480) is lower than the County of Hastings
($49,811), and considerably lower than the Provincial average ($60,455).
• The median income for individuals in Bancroft is $20,612; again this is much lower than
the median income for individuals at the county and provincial levels, where incomes
are $23,916 and $27,258 respectively.
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February, 2010• Low levels of income in the Town of Bancroft are the likely result of;
o the dominant employment industries in the Town;
o the recent contraction of several employment sectors;
o the large proportion of retirees; and,
o the lower cost of living In the Town compared to most other areas of Southern
and Central Ontario.
• Bancroft has a low rate of employment participation, with only 54% of the population
active in the workforce. This figure is well below the County of Hastings at 62%, and
Ontario’s rate of 66%. This can be attributed to the large grouping of the population in
older age groups, many of whom are no longer working.
• While specific numbers for the Town are not available, the recent economic downturn
has likely increased unemployment rates steadily over the past year. The
unemployment rate for the Kingston‐Pembroke Labour Market (which includes Hastings
County) increased from 5.5% in November 2008 to 7.7% as of November 2009.
Comparatively, the Provincial unemployment rate rose from 6.2% in November 2008, to
8.4% in November 2009.
• On a positive note, Bancroft is set to receive up to $616,500 in funding from both
Federal and Provincial governments to be used towards improvements in water, sewer,
and road infrastructure2. This funding is part of the government stimulus package and
will contribute towards offsetting labour market contraction.
• While the Town of Bancroft’s unemployment figure has surely increased in light of the
economic decline over the past 12 months, the large proportion of the Bancroft
population outside of the active labour force means that fewer households would be
directly affected by such economic shifts.
• Based on Census place of work data, there are roughly 2,850 jobs located in the Town of
Bancroft; roughly double the level of employment. This is a very enviable position to be
in, but not uncommon for urban centres in rural areas. This means that the vast majority
of those employed in the Town, work in the Town, and that a large portion of people
commute to the Town for work, making the Town a net importer of employment.
• The major employers in the Town of Bancroft include :
o Hastings Centennial Manor – nursing and residential care, 140 employees;
o Hydro One Inc. – 106 employees;
o Levesque Brothers – residential building construction, 90 employees;
o Canadian Tire – 80 employees;
o Quinte Health Care North Hastings – hospital, 78 employees; and,
o North Hastings High School – 77 employees.3
2
Service Canada, Kingston Pembroke Labour Market Monitor, October 2009.
3
Major Employers, Bancroft, Town of, July 2009.
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February, 2010Table 5
Demographic Analysis: Income and Labour Force Indicators
Variables Bancroft (Town) Hastings (County) Ontario
Income
Number of families 1,655 52,640 4,555,025
Median household income * $38,480 $49,811 60,455
Number of singles ** 2,990 101,740 9,340,020
Median income ‐ Singles * $20,612 $23,916 $27,258
Labour
Total population 15 years and over 3,130 106,575 9,819,420
Participation rate 54% 62% 67%
Employment rate 52% 58% 63%
Unemployment rate 7.7%*** 8.4%****
Not in the labour force 45% 38% 33%
Industry (2006)
Agriculture and other resource‐
8% 4% 3%
based industries
Manufacturing and construction
17% 21% 20%
industries
Wholesale and retail trade 20% 19% 16%
Finance and real estate 2% 3% 5%
Health and education 19% 15% 16%
Business services 4% 4% 7%
Other services 14% 10% 9%
Industry (2001)
Agriculture and other resource‐
6% 4% 3%
based industries
Manufacturing and construction
21% 22% 22%
industries
Wholesale and retail trade 18% 19% 16%
Finance and real estate 7% 4% 7%
Health and education 17% 15% 15%
Business services 14% 15% 19%
Other services 17% 21% 18%
Source: NBLC & Statistics Canada, 2006 Census Data, CANISM Table 2820054
*Net income before taxes **Individuals over the age of 15 with income ***Kingston‐Pembroke
Labour Market unemployment rate as of November 2009 ‐ includes Hastings County
****Unemplotment Rate as of November 2009
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February, 20103.5 Key Findings from the Demographic and Economic Analysis
The Town of Bancroft is characterized by an aging population and recent population decline.
Population loss or very low growth is not uncommon outside of Ontario’s major centres. This is a
result of higher than normal proportions of the population within older demographic groups, limited
in‐migration, and the outmigration of younger age groups. The following are other factors that are
shaping the housing market in the Bancroft area:
• Bancroft’s persons per household unit rate of 2.2 ppu further reinforces the indication
that Bancroft has a high proportion of retirees and seniors. The low ppu ratio indicates
that many households are without live‐in children.
• Bancroft has a larger than average renter pool, as well as a significant proportion of the
population living within low‐rise apartment housing stock. These statistics are likely a
result of the high proportion of seniors living the Town, combined with the legacy from
transient workers in formerly dominant employment sectors. High proportions of
apartment housing indicates that the typology is widely accepted as a housing choice in
the Town. This is sometimes uncommon in smaller municipalities.
• The Town’s housing stock is very old, with almost 75% of units constructed more than 20
years ago.
• As new housing development has been very limited, there is the potential that some pent
up demand for new downtown housing is present in Bancroft.
• Bancroft’s household income level and employment participation rate are below the
provincial average. This fact is due in part to a significant proportion of the population
living with fixed incomes; the dominant employment industries and recent contraction of
several employment sectors; and lower cost of living than compared to most other areas
in Southern and Central Ontario.
• The Town is a net importer of employment, with roughly 1,400 people commuting into
Bancroft for work. New housing stock could potentially be an attractive option to this
demographic segment as well.
3.6 Development Activity
The following analysis examines building permit data for new dwellings in the Town of Bancroft
between 2005 and December 2009.
• The frequency of new development in the Town has fluctuated greatly from year to year.
The most development activity was experienced in 2006 when 21 permits were issued, all
for new single family homes.
• The least amount of development activity took place in 2007 (only 7 permits issued – all for
single family homes), these homes were large, averaging 2,835 sq. ft. per home.
• Since 2005, 57 single family units and 12 apartment units have been constructed in the
Town. The average unit size of new dwellings in the Town since 2005 is 1,934 sq. ft.
However, if development from 2007 is excluded, this per unit average falls to about 1,700
sq. ft.
• Of note, a 10‐unit apartment building was constructed in 2008; each unit averaged 1,058
square feet in size. This project was a second story addition to an existing 4‐unit mercantile
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February, 2010building on Snow Road. The building offers geared to income rental housing for single
working adults, and is managed by Hastings County Housing Corporation.
Table 6
Town of Bancroft Building Permit Data
Number of New Dwellings Size (sq. ft.)
Year Total New
Single Family Apartment Units Per Unit Average
Development
2005 12 2 1,940 25,214
2006 21 0 1,906 40,016
2007 7 0 2,835 19,846
2008 6 10 1,465 21,270
2009* 11 0 1,525 16,772
Totals/ Averages 57 12 1,934 123,118
*Da ta a s of December 10th, 2009
Source: Town of Bancroft Building Department & N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Figure 3
Number of New Dwelling Units Constructed in Bancroft per Year
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
3.7 Summary
This data suggests that while housing demand will persist among all groups, the area of strongest
growth will be in older age groups in the empty‐nester (55‐70 years of age) and the retirement
categories. Some demand for townhome or apartments will also come from single persons,
especially divorce casualties and widowers who do not require large homes nor want the
maintenance associated with them. In all cases, the cost of housing will be a major determinant of
market success. Total demand from these groups is expected to be modest.
Under current conditions, demand is likely to be in the range of 10 to 15 units per year. However, by
improving the amenities of downtown Bancroft through improved retail, attractions and community
services, these absorption rates could be significantly enhanced.
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February, 20104. COMPETETIVE MARKET REVIEW
This section outlines the immediately competitive projects located within Bancroft, as well as the
collection of projects located in what is identified as the greater Bancroft‐Haliburton market area.
There are very few projects in the Bancroft‐Haliburton area we look further a field to provide some
market context.
4.1 The Bancroft‐Haliburton Market Area
There are currently four residential projects actively marketing throughout the Bancroft‐Haliburton
market area.
The following are our observations of the new residential marketplace:
• The four active residential developments that could be competitive to any housing project in
Bancroft represent a total of 118 new residential units. To date, 41% (48 units) have been
sold. These projects are, in some cases, not close to Bancroft but offer evidence of the
nature of the local and regional residential marketplace.
• The active developments in the area are offering a range of residential types, ranging from
townhomes to bungalows and typical two‐storey single detached homes. However, the
most common are single family detached dwellings, with some developments selling vacant
detached lots, and allowing the purchaser to choose from a selection of housing models.
• Single detached lots are typically priced between $40,000 and $68,000 depending on the
size of the lot, and its location within a development. Detached homes are priced between
$220,000 and $560,000. The majority of the market is typically around the $300,000 mark,
with the higher end units typically being lakefront property or estate homes located in
Haliburton.
• New townhome product makes up only 11% of the actively marketing supply in the
Bancroft‐Haliburton market area. These units are found at the Silver Beach project in
Haliburton, where unit sizes range between 705 and 888 square feet, with end pricing
around $299,000.
• The target market for residential development in the region is the active retired buyer from
the GTA, as well as those moving from local communities and areas in between. These
buyers typically have fixed incomes (i.e. pensions) and are driven by the affordability, the
beauty of the near‐north landscape, sense of privacy and exclusivity, safety and small town
character as well as access to outdoor recreational activities.
4.2 Bancroft’s Active Residential Projects
Two residential projects are located directly within the Town of Bancroft. Both projects are currently
selling vacant detached serviced lots, and offer prospective purchasers their choice in housing
design. These Bancroft projects offer relatively affordable detached homes, and are characterized by
somewhat slow market absorption rates. See Figure 4 for a map locating these projects.
In addition to these two projects, a local landowner has sold lots in a subdivision called Granite
Ridge, located in Bancroft on the shores of Vanluven Lake and Waterhouse Lake. This project has
been selling luxury waterfront lots (0.5 acre lots) for several years, many of which have been built
on. Currently there are six vacant lots listed with a local real estate agent for prices ranging between
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 17
February, 2010$59,000 and $79,000. There is no developer/builder linked to the subdivision, all construction is
contracted by individual property owners.
4.2.1 River’s Edge Golf Course & Community
• The River’s Edge project is located on the North Edge of Bancroft about 4 km (a 5 minute
drive) from downtown.
• The River’s Edge community is the residential component of the Rivers Edge Golf Course
project. The residential development features a total of 170 detached lots set on treed
fairway lots or lots backing onto the York River.
• The project is currently selling its second phase. Since opening in 2007, River’s Edge has
released 26 lots and has sold 15, or 58%. This sales pace translates into an absorption rate of
about one lot every two months.
• So far, two new homes have been purchased from the developer in addition to the sale of
the respective lots. These homes sold for $325,000 and $345,715 respectively.
River’s Edge Golf Course and Community, Bancroft
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 18
February, 20104.2.2 Village Estates
• The Village Estates project is located on Williams Drive, about 2 km southeast of Bancroft’s
downtown.
• The land for this development was purchased in 2003, subdivided and serviced in years
thereafter. The project began selling lots in 2008 and to date have released one phase of 23
serviced single detached lots, of which 12 are sold (52%). These sales translate into an
absorption pace of 0.6 lot sales per month.
• The lots range in size between 48 and 80 foot frontages, ranging in price between $42,000
and $49,000.
• The land owner has partnered with a local contractor who will build homes to buyers’
specifications. Recent home purchases have ranged in price between $220,000 and
$250,000. Two homes currently for sale are priced at $269,000 (1,200 sq. ft.) and $279,000
(1,700 sq. ft.). This project will likely be developed over several phases. The land owner
noted that they own an additional 60 acres adjacent to the Village Estates lands, and are
starting to look at opening another block of land for development.
Village Estates, Bancroft
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 19
February, 2010Figure 4 – Map of Active Residential Projects in Bancroft Source: County of Hastings & NBLC Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 20 February, 2010
Table 7
Actively Marketing Residential Projects Near Bancroft
Oen # Units/ Sales to Unit Sizes
Project Name Location Builder Unit Types / Notes % Sold Pricing
Date Lots date (sq ft)
Serviced detached lots, Lots: $39,900 ‐
Michael Wade
Rivers Edge Golf custom or model home $71,000
Bancroft Construction Co. 2007 26 15 58% 1,400 ‐ 1,700+
Course & Community choices. Condo apartments Homes: $299,000 ‐
Limited
in a future phase. $399,000
Serviced detached lots, Lots: $42,000 ‐
custom homes with builder‐ 48' to 80' (lots) $49,000
Village Estates Bancroft 1529036 Ontario Ltd 2008 23 12 52%
partner. Additional 60 acres 1,200 ‐ 1,700 Homes: $220,000 ‐
future phase $279,000
Greg Brown
Stothart Creek Haliburton 2007 3 & 4‐bed detached 22 2 9% 1,820 ‐ 3,807 $299,900 ‐ $494,700
Construction
2 & 3‐bed bungalows /
Silver Beach Lifestyle Silver Beach 36 10 28% 1,221 ‐ 2,500 $389,000 ‐ $559,000
Haliburton 2007 bungalofts
Community Developments
2 & 3‐bed townhomes 11 9 82% 705 ‐ 888 $299,000
Totals (4 Projects) 118 48 41% 705 ‐ 3,807 $39,900 ‐ $559,000
Source: N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 21
February, 20104.3 Other Active Projects
Other actively marketing projects located outside of the Bancroft‐Haliburton market area include:
• The Landing Townhomes
o Located in Apsley (about 45km south of Bancroft), Timberline Custom Homes has
constructed 25 waterfront townhomes on Anstruther Lake. These homes have been
primarily targeted to seasonal buyers.
o The project began selling in 2005 and has sold 21 units to date at a rate of about 0.4
units per month. Townhomes are 1,100 sq. ft. 2‐bedroom units, ranging in price
between $269,900 and $309,900.
• Kingsview on Balsam Lake
o Located on Balsam Lake in Coboconk (about 60km south of Haliburton), the Katlin
Group is constructing a 30 unit gated waterfront community with condominium
ownership.
o Homes are 3 and 4‐bedroom detached units, ranging between 1,600 and 1,900 sq. ft.,
with pricing between $500,000 and $710,000. Since opening in 2007, 20 have been sold
(67%).
• Maple Walk Estates
o Located in Fenelon Falls, the project is comprised of 20 townhomes and one detached
home, and is being marketed towards active adults. The development is within walking
distance to shopping and waterfront amenities (Cameron Lake).
o Pricing ranges from $219,900 (1,165 sq. ft.) to $229,900 (1,390 sq. ft.). Since opening in
2007, the project has sold 15 units, and an additional phase of 13 units will be released
in 2010.
• 122 Homewood Condominiums
o Located in the Village of Hastings, builder Sunrise Estates has constructed a 6‐unit
bungalow‐style condominium; each unit is 750 sq. ft.
o Since opening in the summer of 2009 no units have been sold. Units were originally
priced at $169,900 but have recently been reduced in price to $129,900.
In general, this review illustrates that the range of pricing and product positioning is wide and a
broad selection of homes is available. Most of these new home projects suffer from slow sales. In
each project, the reasons for slow sales may be different but in general, seniors tend to be very
selective and are highly mobile and frequently not in a rush to move. A growing trend for this group
is to stay in the family home for longer periods.
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 22
February, 20104.3.1 Muskoka Wharf, Gravenhurst
It is useful to examine the Muskoka Wharf project in Gravenhurst. While in a totally different market
context, the project has illustrated the importance of public investment to the residential market.
The investment of the public sector in the new wharfs, the museum and other infrastructure
effectively transformed this area and changed the market perception of the Town in general. The
investment supported the development of the Muskoka Wharf condominium development, which
sold briskly despite any previous market experience in higher density development in Gravenhurst.
Muskoka Wharf, Gravenhurst
4.4 Future Supply
• Upcoming projects include River’s Edge Condominium Residences. In discussions with the
project’s sales agent, it was noted that the developer is currently holding on its plans to build a
phased development of 12, two‐storey condominium buildings, each with 8 units, this may be
incorporated into a later phase (96 units total). Based on original plans, these units are expected
to be comprised of 2‐bedroom (1,100 sq ft) and 3‐bedroom unit types (1,550 sq ft), with
anticipated end pricing ranging between $229,000 and $289,000.
• Watercolours, a retirement lifestyle condominium development in Haliburton has received OMB
approval. However, it is currently on hold as it undergoes design revisions and attains site plan
approval.
o The development will be a four‐storey condominium building overlooking Head
Lake, and is being marketed as an aging‐in‐place retirement community.
o The project will provide its residents with over 75 support programs, available
through a pay‐as‐you‐go style plan.
o Units are expected to include 1‐bedroom, 1‐bedroom and den, 2‐bedroom and 2‐
bedroom and den configurations, with sizes between 580 and 1,200 sq ft, and unit
pricing between $165,500 and $340,000.
O The project is expected to be comprised of about 150 condominium units in total.
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 23
February, 20104.5 Resale Product
The following table outlines the resale market activity throughout Bancroft from 2004 to 2009.
• The overall average sale price for resale product in Bancroft is $150,197; however the
annual average has steadily increased since 2004. The 2009 average for resale homes in
Bancroft was $180,512, up over $21,000 from 2008.
• The average sale value of $180,512 suggests that there is likely a range of resale product
available from the $160,000 to $300,000 range.
• Homes typically average 88 days on the resale market, this is indicative of the slower pace of
sales activity realized throughout the market area.
• Both the new home and resale markets are modest in terms of pricing and activity. Market
indicators suggest that new downtown development priced around $250,000 would be
effective in attracting potential purchasers who currently own above‐average homes,
without excluding prospective purchasers from the local area.
Table 8
Summary of Residential Resale Transactions in Bancroft, 2004 ‐ 2009
No. of Average List Average Sale Sale to List
Year
Transactions Price Price Price
2009 37 $190,714 $180,512 93%
2008 37 $166,213 $158,960 96%
2007 35 $153,460 $142,463 93%
2006 58 $162,776 $153,900 95%
2005 48 $139,435 $133,278 96%
2004 65 $140,625 $132,297 94%
Totals: 280 $159,264 $150,197 94%
Source: Bancroft and District Real Estate Board, NBLC.
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 24
February, 20105. PRODUCT AND CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
The Building Bancroft initiative could represent a good opportunity to remedy the lack of recent
investment and development in Bancroft’s downtown, and to incorporate new residential product
at the same time. The site plan as originally proposed on the west side of the river was not
considered well suited for residential development. However, subsequent revisions to that plan
have improved the opportunity for the proposed residential development to be successfully
integrated as part of a new downtown revitalization plan.
Given Bancroft’s demographic structure, and the dominant empty‐nester/ move‐down buyer group,
there is an opportunity to provide a different, more modern housing option to the Town. The
housing choice for these groups are now limited to detached homes in town, older rental buildings
and assisted seniors housing. None of these options are ideally suited to empty‐nesters who are
simply looking to downsize in an area that is attractive with nearby amenities. There is only one
resale condominium apartment building located directly downtown (at 16 Alice Street). This building
is approximately 20‐years old, and currently, only one unit is available for purchase.
A new condominium apartment offering in conjunction with a renewed downtown aesthetic, and
investment in new community facilities could be successful in fulfilling the demands of an
unserviced niche market. This affordable product offering would allow purchasers the ability to live
in Bancroft with the ability to walk to shops and services, enjoy the local recreational opportunities
and community facilities.
We therefore see the potential for a modest residential component of a new residential
development in downtown Bancroft that could begin with a small, 40‐unit apartment building along
with an initial phase of townhomes as part of an overall redevelopment project.
For success, the project would have to consider these principal requirements:
• The maximization of river views and access with respect to the proposed development site;
• The scale of the project must be limited to market conditions;
• A limited number of floor plans;
• Balconies or terraces for each unit;
• Lower cost construction through the use of wood or potentially steel frame;
• The site must be physically linked with pedestrian connections to some of the other community
facilities and aesthetic improvements also being discussed as part of the Building Bancroft
project.
In terms of the project’s sales process; presale strategies in weaker market areas do not always
produce favourable results. This is, in part, due to the unfamiliarity of purchasing a condominium,
and waiting up to 24 months for occupancy in these areas. It is also indicative of the weaker demand
characteristics. Presales maybe necessary to securing traditional financing, however, if financing
could be made available that would allow construction to proceed ahead of the sale program; the
project could attract much more interest, reduce buyer uncertainty and likely improve the pace of
sales.
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 25
February, 20105.1 The Empty‐Nester/ Move‐Down Buyer Groups
The principal buyer group will be empty‐nesters. The following characteristics must be considered in
the design, pricing and overall positioning of the apartment and townhouses:
• The first of the baby boomers are about to turn 65, marking the entry of this powerful wave
of the population into the traditional age of retirement.
• These seniors however, are far healthier and active than prior generations. They tend to
stay in the family home longer and when they do decide to down‐size, it is typically a slow
process.
• Seniors today are also more knowledgeable about real estate, design and finishes, and are
market savvy.
• Most seniors are not in a hurry to make a purchase decision are mobile and have a wide
variety of choice.
• As most seniors are beyond their years of wealth generation, pricing is crucial.
• In communities such as Bancroft there are often few choices for seniors looking to down‐
size. Typically, they have a choice between older rental apartments and retirement homes.
As many do not see the need to for assisted living, nor do they wish to pay rent for an old
apartment (often for the first time in their lives) they choose to stay in their family homes. A
condominium or townhouse offers a choice that:
o Allows them to preserve some of their equity for future needs;
o Gives them access to new construction that can feature modern finishes and design
features;
o Provides better security;
o Is largely maintenance free;
o Provides the ability to “lock and leave” for more carefree travel; and,
o Provides new opportunities for socialization.
Furthermore, a new downtown condominium apartment project may have the potential to attract a
limited number of younger first time buyers. Condominium product can act as a supplement to
rental stock, and offers good quality housing to those currently in rental units. As there is a large
proportion of renters in the Town, this type of development may also represent an investment
opportunity for local purchasers looking to own an equity property.
5.2 Suggested Product Type
Based on NBLC’s analysis of Bancroft and the surrounding market area, it is expected that a 40‐unit
condominium apartment development with large two‐bedroom units and an additional 8
townhouse units could be viable, especially when coupled with a good downtown development
location. The potential for an additional 4 to 8 townhome units may exist as a later phase of the
development, though it would likely require some time before the second phase of development
could commence.
• Condominium apartments should be 800 to 1,000 square feet in size, while townhomes should
be larger, ranging from 1,300 to 1,500 square feet per unit.
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 26
February, 2010• Pricing for condominium apartments should range between $215 and $225 psf (end pricing
between $180,000 and $215,000). Townhome product could likely sell at higher end‐pricing, at
rates between $160 and $170 psf (end pricing from $221,000 to $240,000).
• It is expected that if current economic conditions continue to improve or remain constant, a
new development could be absorbed at a rate of approximately 3 sales per month. This assumes
that the development is located on a quality development site, and is supported by an adequate
marketing effort.
Table 9
Suggested Residential Product Parameters ‐ Building Bancroft
Housing Type Tenure No. Units Size $ PSF End Price
800 $225 $180,000
Apartment Condo. 40
1,000 $215 $215,000
1,300 $170 $221,000
Townhouse Condo. 8
1,500 $160 $240,000
Source: N. Barry Lyon Consultants Ltd.
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 27
February, 20106. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
6.1 Development Scenario
The development scenario is as follows:
• The development contains 40 condominium apartment units within a 3 to 4‐storey wood
frame building with parking at grade. An additional 8 condominium townhouse units are
also considered in the financial analysis.
• Condominium units average 1,100 sq. ft. in size, at an index price of $220 psf.
• Townhome units average 1,700 sq. ft. per unit, priced at $165 psf.
• Total residential gross floor area is estimated to be roughly 65,000 sq. ft.
6.2 Methodology and Assumptions
The methodology employed in the financial analysis is a Residual Land Value (RLV) analysis. The
basic methodology determines the sales revenues attributed to the project, less the hard and soft
costs of developing the project, resulting in a calculated “Residual Land Value and Profit”. The
developer’s profit is then subtracted from this amount to determine the RLV (in future dollars), or
the value attributed to the site once all revenues and costs associated with the proposed
development are accounted for. This value is then discounted to the present day to give the RLV, or
land value of the site, in present dollars.
Some general assumptions employed in the pro forma analysis are as follows:
• A gross to net efficiency of 88% for apartment units, and 100% for townhouse units;
• A developer’s profit of 10.0%;
• A discount rate of 10.0%;
• A cost inflator of 1.0% per year;
• A revenue inflator of 2.0% per year;
• An above grade construction cost of $120 per square foot for apartment units, an above
grade parking cost of $30 per square foot, representing a blended construction cost of
approximately $121 per square foot for apartment units, in present dollars;
• An above grade construction cost of $75 per square foot for townhouse units, an above
grade parking cost of $30 per square foot, representing a blended construction cost of
approximately $75 per square foot for townhouse units, in present dollars;
• An residential absorption rate of 3.0 units per month;
• A residential parking ratio of 1.0 space per residential unit, and 0.2 spaces per apartment
unit for visitor parking;
• Marketing to begin in 1.0 years time; and,
• Provisions for the proposed Ontario Harmonized sales tax is based on the average
recommended achievable end price for a residential unit.
A complete list of assumptions and the detailed pro forma analysis is provided in
Appendix A.
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 28
February, 20106.3 Results of the Financial Analysis
Based on the development scenario and noted assumptions, the development would generate a
present land value for redevelopment of approximately $493,984 representing approximately
$3,625 per apartment unit, and $43,625 per townhouse unit, at an overall $7.94 per square foot
buildable.
The findings from the financial analysis are summarized in Table 9 below. For the detailed financial
analysis, please refer to Appendix A.
Table 10
Summary of Results of Financial Analysis
Condominium
Condominium
Item Townhomes at Total
Apartments
Grade
Project Stats
Number of Units 40 8 48
Average net Unit Size (Square Feet) 900 1,400 0
Gross Residential Area (Square Feet) 51,037 11,200 62,237
Index Revenue Per Square Foot $220 $165 $209
End Price per Unit $198,000 $231,000 $203,500
Retail Area (Square Feet) 0 0 0
Revenues
Total Project Revenues $10,437,357 $1,940,969 12,378,325
Development Costs
Total Project Hard Costs $6,586,431 $883,541 7,469,972
Total Project Hard Costs Per Square Foot $129 $79 $120
Total Project Soft Costs $2,621,690 $451,780 3,073,470
Total Project Soft Costs Per Square Foot $51 $40 $49
Total Project Costs $9,208,121 $1,335,320 10,543,442
Total Project Costs Per Square Foot $180 $119 $169
Profits
RLV and Profit (future$) $1,229,236 $605,648 1,834,884
RLV and Profit Per Unit (future$) $30,731 $75,706 $38,227
RLV and Profit Per Square Foot (future$) $24 $54 $29
Total Profit (future$) $1,024,690 $190,452 1,215,142
Profit per Unit (future$) $25,617 $23,807 $25,315
Profit per Square Foot (future$) $20 $17 $20
Residual Land Value
RLV (present$) $144,983 $349,001 $493,984
RLV per Unit (present$) $3,625 $43,625 $10,291
RLV per Square Foot (present$) $3 $31 $8
Source: N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 29
February, 20107. CONCLUSION The Building Bancroft project has the potential to successfully include residential development as one of its components. The site plan as originally proposed on the west side of the river was not considered well suited for residential development. However, subsequent revisions to that plan have improved the opportunity for the proposed residential development to be successfully integrated as part of a new downtown revitalization plan. The lack of condominium projects, or projects marketed towards active empty‐nesters in Bancroft presents a current a market opportunity for the development of low‐rise condominium apartments and townhomes. In this regard, the potential development represents a unique opportunity in Bancroft’s marketplace. Based on NBLC’s financial analysis, a modest development of condominium apartments and condominium townhomes are likely financially feasible at the land value suggested. However, this assumes that the project meets the criteria established in the report. The key criterion is that the residential component is accompanied by significant public investment in community or cultural facilities that serve to improve the aesthetic and amenity of the downtown area. Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 30 February, 2010
APPENDIX A – DETAILED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
nblc
Financial Analysis Model Pro Forma for:
Building Bancorft Residential Development
Condo Apartments and Townhouses
Traditional
Condominium Condominium
SUMMARY Townhouses Apartment Building Total NOTES
Disclaimer
Number of Units 8 40 48 Every reasonable effort has been taken to ensure that the information, analysis,
Average Net Unit Size (SF) 1,400 900 36,233 conclusions, and recommendations in this report are accurate and timely. No
responsibility for the information, analysis, conclusions, or recommendations is assume
Index Revenue per Square Foot $165 $220
by N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited or any of its employees or associates.
End Price per Unit $231,000 $198,000
Total Residual Land Value (present$) $349,001 $144,983 $493,984
RLV per Unit (present$) $43,625 $3,625 $10,291
RLV per Square Foot (present$) $31.16 $2.84 $7.94
Total Profit $190,452 $1,024,690 $1,215,142
Profit per Unit $23,807 $25,617 $25,315
Profit per Square Foot $17.00 $20.08 $19.52
Traditional
Condominium Condominium
A) ASSUMPTIONS Townhouses Apartment Building Total NOTES
Residential Unit & Area Statistics
Number of Units 8 40 48 Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Average Net Unit Size (SF) 1,400 900 36,233 Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Gross to Net Efficiency (GNE, %) 100.0% 88.0% Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Average Gross Unit Size (SF) 1,400 1,276
Total Residential Saleable Area (SF) 11,200 44,912 56,112
Gross Residential Area (GRA, SF) 11,200 51,037 62,237
GRA (square meters) 1,041 4,741 5,782
Retail Area (SF) 0 0 0 Estimated
Gross Livable Area ‐ GRA + retail (GLA, SF) 11,200 51,037 62,237
Land Area (SF) ‐ No Site Selected
Land Area (acres) ‐
Proposed Density/Site Coverage ‐
Parking Unit & Area Statistics
Required Resident Parking Stalls (per residential unit) 1.00 1.00 Included in above grade design for Townhouses
Required Visitor Parking Stalls (per residential unit) 0.00 0.20
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 31
February, 2010Required Non‐Residential Parking Stalls (PSF) 0.0 0.000
Total Parking Stalls Constructed 8 48
Number of Visitor Parking Stalls 0 8
Number of Residential Parking Stalls 8 40
Number of Commercial Parking Stalls 0 0
% of Total Parking Stalls Sold 0% 83%
Number of Parking Stalls Sold 0 40
Estimated Area per Stall (SF) 0 0
TYPICAL Total Parking Area ‐ Below Grade (SF) 0 0
REQUIRED Total Parking Area ‐ Below Grade (SF) 0 0
SURPLUS Total Parking Area ‐ Below Grade (SF) 0 0
Total Parking Area ‐ Above Grade (SF) 0 2,032 Included in above grade design for Townhouses
Revenues
Residential Index Price (PSF) $165 $220 $209 Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
End Price (per residential unit) $231,000 $198,000 $203,500 Based on (Average Net Unit Size)*(Residential Index Price)
Initial Deposit (% of end price per unit) 10.00% 10.00% Deposit amount required prior to construction
Final Deposit (% of end price per unit) 10.00% 10.00% Deposit amount required prior to occupancy
Price Increase at Start of Construction 2.00% 2.00% Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Price Increase at Construction Completion 2.00% 2.00% Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
% Sold During Pre‐Construction (Pre‐sales) 70.00% 70.00% Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
% Sold During Construction 20.00% 20.00% Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
% Sold at Completion 10.00% 10.00% Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Average Attained Price over Marketing Period $170 $228 These figures are calculated based on the above factors
Parking Revenue (per stall) $0 $0 Included in pricing
Retail Index Price ($25 PSF net @ 7.5% Cap rate) $0 $0 Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Revenue Inflator 2.00% 2.00% Per year
Costs
Hard (Construction) Costs
Above Grade GLA Construction Cost (PSF) $75 $120 Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Below Grade Parking Cost (PSF) $0 $0 Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Above Grade Parking Cost (PSF) $30 $30 Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Blended Construction Cost (PSF) $76 $123 Includes cost inflator
Blended Construction Cost (PSF, Present$) $75 $121
Blended Road Construction & Servicing Cost (per linear metre) $0 $0 Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Signalized Intersection Cost (lump sum estimate) $0 $0 Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Site Servicing Connection Fee (lump sum estimate) $0 $20,000 Estimated
Landscaping Cost (per residential unit) $1,000 $750 Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Contingency (% of total hard costs) 3.00% 3.00% Per N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Building Bancroft Project – Residential Analysis Page | 32
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