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6 May 19, 8.15am/11.15am Morning Call/Webinar
CapitaLand Limited China Aviation (Singapore) Oil
Ascendas REIT China Sunsine Chemical Holdings Ltd
Ascott Residence Trust Sembcorp Marine Ltd
DBS Group Holdings Ltd US Weekly
Raffles Medical Group Micro-Mechanics (Holdings) Ltd
Singapore Banking Monthly Sheng Siong Group
StarHub Ltd Phillip Singapore Weekly
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2019. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities
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Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (“PSR”) has no reason to believe are
unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such
information and are expressions of belief only. PSR has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such
information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this presentation is
subject to change, and PSR shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or
releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSR be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of
the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
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any particular person.
You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial
situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products.
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities
accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 2
CapitaLand Limited
A temporal blip in the grand scheme of things
Tara Wong
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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CapitaLand Ltd
ACUUMULATE (Maintained), TP: $4.00 (unchanged), Last: $3.53
Results at a glance
(SGD mn) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) Comments (1Q18 vs 1Q17)
Gross Revenue 1,048 1,376 -23.8% Lower revenue from residential projects in Singapore and
+ The Positives
China, partially mitigated by higher handover of units in CapitaLand Lodging was the sole segment that
Vietnam and higher rental revenue from portfolio of reported YoY growth for both revenue (+14.4%)
properties in USA and Europe acquired in FY18.
and EBIT (+328%). Excluding the one-time gain
EBIT 699 605 15.5% Higher portfolio and revaluation gains.
from divestment of Ascott Raffles Place, EBIT
from this segment would still have risen c.31%.
Finance costs (182) (149) 22.6% Increase in borrowings and average cost of borrowings at Solid sell-through rate for China projects. >5k
3.2% (1Q18: 3.1%). units ready to be launched for rest of 2019.
Total PATMI 296 319 -7.4% Lower operating PATMI and writeback of impairments,
partially mitigated by gains realised from assets recycling - The Negatives
and revaluation of a property in China.
Lower handover of units this quarter due to timing
Operating PATMI 182 229 -20.5%
differences. The Management communicated that
bulk of the units handover will be back-ended into
Source: Company, PSR 2H19.
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CapitaLand Ltd
ACUUMULATE (Maintained), TP: $4.00 (unchanged), Last: $3.53
CapitaLand's upcoming project launches in Singapore and Malaysia
RNAV Table
No. of
(S$mn) (S$) Region Development Launch
units
Development properties
Singapore residential surplus 117 0.03 Former Pearl
2Q
China residential surplus 3,103 0.73 Bank 774
2019
Other Overseas residential surplus 6 0.00 Apartments
Development properties 5,129 1.20 Singapore
Sengkang
8,355 1.95 Central mixed- 3Q
Investment properties 680
use 2019
Singapore 2,282 0.53 development
China (Includes HK) 15,333 3.59 Malaysia Freehold
Japan 1,654 0.39 2Q
(Kuala Condominium 505
Other Asia 694 0.16 2019
Lumpur) in Desa
Europe, U.S. and Australia 1,828 0.43 Source: Company, PSR
21,791 5.10
Listed / unlisted entities
CMT 2,520 0.59 Outlook
CCT 2,112 0.49
CRCT
ART
430
1,078
0.10
0.25
Recent easing of residency requirements in China (also known as the hukou
Others 254 0.06 system) expected to flow through for a gradual relaxation of the price caps, albeit
6,395 1.50
Fund Management Platform in a gradual and controlled manner.
PER: 12 2,984 0.70
GAV 39,525 9.25
Launching former Pearl Bank Apartments development in 2Q19 and the
Less: FY19E cash (net debt and committed CAPEX) (18,153) (4.25) Sengkang Central mixed-use development in 3Q19.
RNAV
RNAV/share (S$)
21,372
5.00
Vietnam residential launches to see a slowdown; demand still strong.
Premium/(discount) to RNAV -20%
Fair value (S$)
Source: PSR
4.00 Maintain ACCUMULATE with unchanged TP of S$4.00
*Our RNAV figures do not include components that would arise Our target price translates to a FY19e P/NAV ratio of 0.78x.
from the proposed acquisition of Ascendas-Singbridge (ASB)
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Ascendas REIT
Rich valuations limit upside
Natalie Ong
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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Ascendas REIT
NEUTRAL (Downgraded), TP: $2.88, Last: $3.01
Results at a glance
(SGD mn) 4Q19 4Q18 YoY FY19 FY18 YoY Comments
+ The Positives
Gross revenue 225 216 +4.3% 886 862 +2.8% Acquisition of two logistics UK portfolios in Aug 18
and Oct 18 and four Australian properties in Jun 18
Positive rental reversions across all segments in
and Sep 18 and contributions from redeveloped SG Singapore - rental reversions for the Singapore
asset, 20 Tuas Ave 1 in Apr 18, partially offset by portfolio was +6.6%/+3.7% for 4Q19/FY19.
tenant non-renewals and downsizing in SG
properties.
Net property 163 158 +3.5% 650 629 +3.2% Ma i nl y due to new a cqui s i tions a nd net
i ncome property tax s a vi ngs due to retros pective Portfolio occupancy increased 40bps YoY from 91.5%
downwa rd reva l ua tions i n va l ua tion of
to 91.9% despite pre-terminations and non-renewals.
properties , pa rtia l l y offs et by hi gher
opera ting expens es .
Di s tri butabl e 129 115 +12.7% 486 468 +3.8% Ai ded by S$7.8mn i n rol l over a djus tments on
i ncome pri or yea r's non-tax deductibi l i ty of fi na nce
cos ts - The Negatives
DPU (cents) 4.15 3.91 +6.1% 16.04 15.99 +0.3% Rollover adjustments lifted DPU by 0.25cts (FY18
S$5.9mn; 0.20cts) Flattish rents guided for Singapore renewals as
Source: Compa ny, PSR passing rents are close to market rents
Outlook
Repositioning of 25 and 27 Ubi Road 4 will allow AREIT to double rents while avoiding competing with future supply.
8% of the Australia portfolio’s GRI will be up for renewal in FY20, with 74% of lease expiries coming from Sydney –
strong rental market with 4% rental reversions for the past 12 consecutive quarters.
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Ascendas REIT
NEUTRAL (Downgraded), TP: $2.88, Last: $3.01
Figure 1. 12M-forward P/NAV (x) Figure 2. Singapore: Industrial rental index and factory occupancy
%
1.5
110 94
1.4 93
+2 std. dev. 105
92
1.3 100
91
1.2
Average 95
90
90
1.1 89
85 88
1.0 -2 std. dev.
80 87
12/2012 12/2013 12/2014 12/2015 12/2016 12/2017 12/2018
0.9
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Property Rental Index: Industrial Factory Space Occupancy Rate
Source: Bloomberg, PSR estimates Source: PSR, CEIC
Downgrade to NEUTRAL; unchanged target price of $2.88
Rich valuation of P/NAV of 1.41x not as well supported - 4Q12/1Q19 occupancy rate and rental index for the industrial
sector 93.7%/88% and 100/93.5 indicating a stronger market propping up valuations.
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Ascott Residence Trust
A promising start to the year
Natalie Ong
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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Ascott Residence Trust
BUY (Maintained), TP: $1.36, Last: $1.21
Results at a glance
+ The Positives
(SGD mn) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY Comments Higher leisure and corporate demand in SG, UK and
Gross revenue 115.9 112.8 2.8% Revenue grew in Singapore(+17%) and UK(+13%)
Philippines.
due to stronger demand, and in Phillippines(+24%)
due to higher ADRs post-AEI SG international tourist arrivals (IVA) in 1Q19 increased
Gros s Profi t 54.6 48.7 12.2% Excl udi ng a ccounting i mpa ct of a dopting IFRS 1% YoY and seems on track to surpassing the projected
116, gros s profi t i ncrea s ed 2% 3% growth for the year (2018 IVA growth +6%).
Di s tri butabl e i ncome 31.5 29.2 7.9% Due to S$2.6mn i n i nteres t s a vi ng a nd FX
ga i ns on the repa yment of forei gn currency Holding steady in Japan and Australia despite strong
l oa ns pa i d out of di ves tment proceeds (1Q18 competition - RevPAUs and gross profit increasing
+S$1.6mn) 8%/4% and 4%/3% for Japan and Australia
DPS (cents) 1.45 1.35 7.4% Excluding interest savings and FX gains, DPU grew
4% (1.33/1.28 in 1Q19/1Q18) - The Negatives
Source: Compa ny, PSR Negative reversions on France master lease and sale of
Ascott RP reduce the income from “stable” sources
Outlook
Better performance expected from US and Indonesia in due to higher post-AEI RevPAUs
Possible of merger with Ascendas Hospitality Trust still hangs in the air.
Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of S$1.36
Reiterate BUY favouring geographical diversification and upside exposure. Total return 18.3% and FY19e P/NAV of 0.88.
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.DBS Group Holdings Ltd
Record earnings and ROE
Tin Min Ying
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities
accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.DBS Group Holdings Ltd– Accumulate (Downgraded) TP: $29.0 (unchanged)
Results at a glance
(SGD mn) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) 4Q18 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 2,310 2,128 8.6% 2,330 -0.9% NIM expanded 5 bps YoY. Loans grew 5.7% YoY.
Net Fees & Comm 730 744 -1.9% 635 15.0% Lower WM, brokerage and IB fee income was offset by rise
in card fees, transaction service fees and loan-related fees.
Other Non-II 511 488 4.7% 280 82.5% Rise in trading income and net gain on investment
securities more than offset a property gain of SGD 86mn a
year ago.
Total Income 3,551 3,360 5.7% 3,245 9.4%
Expenses 1,481 1,278 15.9% 1,422 4.1% CIR remains stable YoY at 42%.
Allowances fell 53.7% YoY due to a General Provision write
Allowance 236 815 -71.0% 105 124.8%
back of S$100mn and improvements in credit
PATMI 1,413 802 76.2% 1,334 5.9%
The Positives Source: Company, PSR
+ NIM expanded 5 bps YoY and 1 bps QoQ to 1.88%, the highest since 2Q10.
• Boosted by higher interest rates in SG & HK.
• Fixed deposits grew 16.7% YoY, faster than CASA deposits which contracted 2.2% YoY.
• Lag effect in repricing: 40-45% of loans book reprices almost immediately, remaining fixed rate loans
repriced over next 2-3years.
• Expect a couple more quarters of margin expansion.
• By blending in both effects, guidance maintained at 5bps above FY18’s average NIM of 1.85%.
• We pen in our estimate for FY19e NIM at 1.91%.
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities
accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.DBS Group Holdings Ltd– Accumulate (Downgraded) TP: $29.0 (unchanged)
Results at a glance
(SGD mn) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) 4Q18 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 2,310 2,128 8.6% 2,330 -0.9% NIM expanded 5 bps YoY. Loans grew 5.7% YoY.
Net Fees & Comm 730 744 -1.9% 635 15.0% Lower WM, brokerage and IB fee income was offset by rise
in card fees, transaction service fees and loan-related fees.
Other Non-II 511 488 4.7% 280 82.5% Rise in trading income and net gain on investment
securities more than offset a property gain of SGD 86mn a
year ago.
Total Income 3,551 3,360 5.7% 3,245 9.4%
Expenses 1,481 1,278 15.9% 1,422 4.1% CIR remains stable YoY at 42%.
Allowances fell 53.7% YoY due to a General Provision write
Allowance 236 815 -71.0% 105 124.8%
back of S$100mn and improvements in credit
PATMI 1,413 802 76.2% 1,334 5.9%
The Positives Source: Company, PSR
+ Allowances declined 53.7% YoY
• Write-back of S$100mn
• Improvements in credit environment: Stabilisation of interest rates & receding trade war fears, DBS
adjusted its ECL model accordingly on a monthly basis.
+ Non-interest income recovered with the 4.7% YoY rise in other non-interest income offsetting the fall of
1.9% YoY in fee income.
• Fee income fell YoY this quarter due to more buoyant market sentiments in 1Q18.
• Higher trading gains (from interest rates & credit activities) & higher gains from investment securities.
• Gains were more than sufficient to offset a S$84mn one-off property gain last year.
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities
accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.DBS Group Holdings Ltd– Accumulate (Downgraded) TP: $29.0 (unchanged)
Results at a glance
(SGD mn) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) 4Q18 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 2,310 2,128 8.6% 2,330 -0.9% NIM expanded 5 bps YoY. Loans grew 5.7% YoY.
Net Fees & Comm 730 744 -1.9% 635 15.0% Lower WM, brokerage and IB fee income was offset by rise
in card fees, transaction service fees and loan-related fees.
Other Non-II 511 488 4.7% 280 82.5% Rise in trading income and net gain on investment
securities more than offset a property gain of SGD 86mn a
year ago.
Total Income 3,551 3,360 5.7% 3,245 9.4%
Expenses 1,481 1,278 15.9% 1,422 4.1% CIR remains stable YoY at 42%.
Allowances fell 53.7% YoY due to a General Provision write
Allowance 236 815 -71.0% 105 124.8%
back of S$100mn and improvements in credit
PATMI 1,413 802 76.2% 1,334 5.9%
Source: Company, PSR
The Negatives
- Housing loans contracted (-0.76% QoQ) for the first time in more than a decade.
• Due to property cooling measures and high-interest rates.
• DBS’s market share of Singapore housing loan remained unchanged at 31%.
• We believe that the slowdown in mortgage loans will persist. Hence we tone down our FY19e loans
growth estimates from 6.0% to 5.4% YoY.
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.DBS Group Holdings Ltd– Accumulate (Downgraded) TP: $29.0 (unchanged)
Update
Change in dividend policy:
Dividend payment frequency has been changed to four times a year instead of two.
• 1Q19 proposed dividend of 30 cents per share, consistent with FY18 full year pay-out of S$1.20 per
share.
• To provide shareholders with more regular income stream as well as some consistency in DBS’ Capital
Adequacy Ratio.
Investment Actions
We downgrade to Accumulate at an unchanged target price of S$29.00. Our rating has been downgraded
to Accumulate due to the share price performance.
• Despite the softer expectation of loans growth due to market headwinds, we expect a couple more
quarters of NIM expansion due to loan repricing.
• Looking forward, asset quality is expected to be stable, and greater cost efficiencies will provide upside
to earnings.
• DBS remains attractive with FY19e dividend yield of 4.2%.
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Raffles Medical Group Ltd
New Chongqing hospital costs start to bite
Tin Min Ying
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Raffles Medical Group Ltd– Neutral (Maintained) TP: $1.09 (unchanged)
Results at a glance
SGD mn 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) 4Q18 QoQ(%) Comments
Revenue 128.3 120.2 6.7 127.7 0.5 Higher contribution from clinics (+8.9%) and hospital
services (+3.2%).
EBITDA 23.6 23.3 1.6 25.7 (8.2) Staff costs contracted 1.2pp to 51.5% of revenue
(1Q18: 52.7% of revenue). EBITDA margin fell 1pp to
18.4% due to RafflesHospital Chongqing's EBITDA
loss of $1.8mn.
EBITDA (Excl 25.4 23.3 9.3 25.7 (1.2) Excluding RafflesHospital Chongqing's gestation
China) costs, EBITDA margin rose 0.4pp to 19.8%.
Operating profits 17.1 18.9 (9.4) 21.3 (19.5) Operating margin fell to 13.3% (1Q18: 15.7%)
PBT 17.0 18.9 (9.7) 25.2 (32.3)
PATMI 13.6 15.8 (13.7) 17.3 (21.3) Gestation costs from RafflesHospital Chongqing was
within expectations.
PATMI (Excl China) 16.1 15.8 2.1 17.3 (6.9)
The Positives Source: Company, PSR
+ Healthcare services (e.g. GP clinics) underpinned revenue growth.
• Revenue growth of 8.9% YoY for Healthcare services was boosted by the higher patient load from the
Primary Healthcare Network (PCN) scheme and new contracts.
• Local patients drove volume while foreign patient load growth remained flat.
+ Hospital services gaining momentum with expanded facilities (+ 3.2% YoY).
• Higher utilisation of inpatient capacities.
• Hospital services revenue turned around after contracting marginally by 0.8% YoY in FY18 due to
refurbishments of current inpatient facilities at the older Raffles Hospital in Singapore.
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities
accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Raffles Medical Group Ltd– Neutral (Maintained) TP: $1.09 (unchanged)
Results at a glance
SGD mn 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) 4Q18 QoQ(%) Comments
Revenue 128.3 120.2 6.7 127.7 0.5 Higher contribution from clinics (+8.9%) and hospital
services (+3.2%).
EBITDA 23.6 23.3 1.6 25.7 (8.2) Staff costs contracted 1.2pp to 51.5% of revenue
(1Q18: 52.7% of revenue). EBITDA margin fell 1pp to
18.4% due to RafflesHospital Chongqing's EBITDA
loss of $1.8mn.
EBITDA (Excl 25.4 23.3 9.3 25.7 (1.2) Excluding RafflesHospital Chongqing's gestation
China) costs, EBITDA margin rose 0.4pp to 19.8%.
Operating profits 17.1 18.9 (9.4) 21.3 (19.5) Operating margin fell to 13.3% (1Q18: 15.7%)
PBT 17.0 18.9 (9.7) 25.2 (32.3)
PATMI 13.6 15.8 (13.7) 17.3 (21.3) Gestation costs from RafflesHospital Chongqing was
within expectations.
PATMI (Excl China) 16.1 15.8 2.1 17.3 (6.9)
The Negatives Source: Company, PSR
- Margins to remain under pressure.
• Excluding RafflesHospital Chongqing’s EBITDA loss of $1.8mn, EBITDA margin would have risen
0.4pp to 19.8 instead of decreasing 1pp to 18.4%.
• However, gestation costs were well within the guidance of EBITDA loss of S$8-10mn in the first year.
- Staff costs rose 4.2% YoY due to hospital expansion.
• However, costs remained well contained, making up 51.5% of revenue as compared to 52.7% in 1Q18.
• We expect it to be above 50% of the Group’s revenue in the coming quarters until patient volume picks
up.
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Raffles Medical Group Ltd– Neutral (Maintained) TP: $1.09 (unchanged)
Updates
China – Chongqing and Shanghai hospitals:
• Management maintained EBITDA loss guidance for both hospitals of S$8-10mn in the first year and
S$4-5mn in the second year before breaking even in the third year of operation.
• RafflesHospital Chongqing:
• Open since January 2019.
• Will be a 700-bed hospital located in the New North District of the Liangjiang New Area.
• RafflesHospital Shanghai:
• Expected to open in 4Q19.
• Will be a 400-bed tertiary hospital located between Shanghai Pudong International Airport and
Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport in the heart of Pudong New Bund, a free trade zone.
Maintain Neutral with an unchanged TP of S$1.09
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Singapore Banking Monthly
Tin Min Ying
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Singapore Banking Monthly – Overweight (Maintained)
Loans
Building and Construction (B&C)
• Made up 33.2% of total business loans,
• Robust at 11.5% YoY, (monthly average of 4.9%
YoY in 2018).
• These are drawdowns of loans from existing
projects in the pipeline.
• B&C loans growth to decelerate around end 2019
due to property cooling effects.
Mortgage loans
• Slowed to 0.9% YoY due to property cooling
measures and rising interest rates.
• Red flag: mortgage loans made up 30% of total
domestic loans in Singapore.
• Mortgage loans as a proportion of total loans for
DBS, UOB and OCBC stand at 21%, 26% and
25% respectively.
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Singapore Banking Monthly – Overweight (Maintained)
Interest Rates
April’s 3-month SIBOR and SOR rose slightly by 0.12bp
and 4.0bps to 1.946% and 1.973% respectively
While SIBOR and SOR have been rising steadily since
2016, they appear to be consolidating near the 2%
mark
Hence, interest rate pressures on mortgage loans may
be capped at this level.
Due to a challenging business environment, we expect
loans growth for the Singapore banks to slow to 4-6%
for FY2019e as compared to 7-11% in FY2018.
Expect the banks to deliver NIM improvements due to
the lagged effect of loan repricing.
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Singapore Banking Monthly – Overweight (Maintained)
CASA Deposits
CASA deposits growth contracted 1.4% YoY, the
slowest in 3 years
Fixed deposits surged 20.0% YoY in comparison to
FY18’s monthly average of 1.6% YoY.
With a higher proportion of fixed deposits in the
deposits mix, the cost of fund rises, making it a
constant challenge for banks to manage costs well
enough to achieve NIM expansion.
However, competition for fixed deposits should taper
off in the 2H19 since no more rate hikes are expected
in 2019.
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.StarHub Ltd
Awaiting further clarity on Ensign
Alvin Chia
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.StarHub Ltd
NEUTRAL(Maintained), TP S$1.62,Last S$1.58
Results at a glance
- Negatives
SGD 'mn 1Q19 1Q18 YoY Comments
• ARPU to trend lower before
Revenue 597 563 6% Improvement due to higher contributions from enterprise & sale
of equipment alleviating weakness in mobile & pay-tv.
stabilising. ARPU declined 5%
Broadband revenue was flat QoQ to S$39 expect this trend to
EBITDA 162 154 5% Increase due to impact from SFRS (I) 16 where operating leases continue. Stabilise end FY19 as
are capitalised as right of use assets and ammortised over asset SIM-only/MVNO effects reached its
life peak
Free cash flow 21 10 110% Attributed to lower CAPEX payments
Net profit 49 64 -23% Excluding losses from Ensign net profit would have been S$61mn
Outlook
Source: Company, PSR
• Future savings from pay-tv content
+ Positives cost with one major renegotiation
• Growth in enterprise remains in play. Network solutions coming up.
grew 9% YoY. Cybersecurity expanded 41% YoY.
• Rebranding materialising. (“Hello Change”) exercise led • Ensign may be a re-rating catalyst
post-paid subscribers to grow 73,000 YoY more than 5 for StarHub as it achieves scale.
year high. Pre-paid grew 1,000 subscribers breaking 4
quarters decline streak
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.China Aviation (Singapore) Oil
Flattish performance
Chen Guangzhi
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.China Aviation (Singapore) Oil
BUY (Maintained), TP: $1.67 (prev S$1.67), Last: $1.30
Results at a glance
(US$ mn) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) Comments Positives
Mild growth of middle distillates supply and trading volume
Revenue 3,717.9 4,102.5 (9.4) Decrease in oil prices and total supply and trading volume of
middle distillates and other oil products (1Q19: 6.78mn tonnes
vs 1Q18: 7.6mn tonnes)
Gross profit 11.6 13.2 (12.0) Lower profits from trading and optimisation activities Negatives
Operating profit 8.3 7.5 11.1 Higher bank interest income partially offsetting higher foreign
exchange loss Flat overall supply and trading margin
Associates and JVs 19.1 21.0 (8.8) Lower profit contributions from Pudong
Net profit 26.3 26.9 (2.1) Lower deferred tax liabilities and lower provision for income tax Nosedive of other oil product volume
expenses
Source: Company , PSR Moderate decrease in profit contribution from Pudong
Outlook (mn tonnes) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%)
Middle distillates 4.6 4.3 8.7
The supply and trading business is expected to be stable Jet fuel 3.5 3.3 6.0
Other oil products 2.1 3.3 (35.5)
The fifth runway has been operating but yet to be well
Total 6.8 7.6 (10.7)
utilised due to the domestic control of aircraft landings Source: Company , PSR
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.China Sunsine Chemical Holdings Ltd
Soft sunshine
Chen Guangzhi
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.China Sunsine Chemical Holdings Ltd
BUY (Maintained), TP: $1.43 (prev S$1.55), Last: $1.17
Results at a glance
(RMB mn) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) Comments Positives
Revenue 687 857 (20) Decrease in overall ASP, offsetting the Maintain high margins amid volume growth
slight increase in sales volumes
Gross profit 236 299 (21) Lower ASP Negatives
PBT 132 182 (27) In line with the above
PAT 110 150 (26) In line with the above ASP fell to a 7-quarter low
Source: Company, PSR
Sales volume
Outlook (mn tonnes) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) 4Q18 QoQ (%)
Accelerators 20,207 19,907 1.5 20,961 -3.6
Intense peer competition which results from the
Insoluble Sulphur 7,353 6,212 18.4 6,725 9.3
resumption of operation
Anti-oxidant 10,684 10,353 3.2 11,850 -9.8
Yancheng explosion is expected to support the raw
material prices from dropping further Average selling price
(RMB/tonne) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) 4Q18 QoQ (%)
The recovering crude oil prices will also support the Accelerators 23,027 29,387 -21.6 24,693 -6.7
chemical raw material prices Insoluble Sulphur 9,602 11,719 -18.1 10,721 -10.4
Expect CSSC to continue to enjoy the 30%+ GPM Anti-oxidant 12,907 17,995 -28.3 13,932 -7.4
Source: Company PSR
for FY19e
The catalyst is still the ramp-up of capacity
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Sembcorp Marine Ltd
A soft start in 2019
Chen Guangzhi
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities
accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Sembcorp Marine Ltd
NEUTRAL (Maintained), TP: $1.76 (prev S$1.76), Last: $1.67
Results at a glance
(SGD mn) 1Q19 1Q18 YoY (%) Comments Positives
Revenue 810.6 1,180.3 (31.3) Lower revenue recognition from rigs and floaters and offshore platform
projects, mitigated by higher repair and upgrade revenue. Excluding the
S$175mn of new contracts secured in Feb-19
effects of the delivery of 1 jackup rig to Borr Drilling in 1Q19, and delivery of
2 jack-up rigs to Borr Drilling and 1 jack-up rig to BOTL in 1Q18, revenue
would have been $608 million, an increase of 27% compared with $480
million in 1Q18
Negatives
Gross profit 21.8 43.1 (49.5) Continued low overall business volume which impacted the absorption of Increasing gearing and declining cash
overhead costs, offset by margin recognition from newly secured production
floater projects and delivery of rig Net gearing was 1.47, compared to 1.44 by the end
Operating proft 7.1 19.5 (63.7) Lower foreign exchange loss was mainly due to the revaluation of assets and of Dec-18
liabilities denominated in USD to SGD
PATMI 1.7 5.3 (67.8) Higher average interest rates compared to the corresponding Cash in hand fell sharply to S$524.0mn (FY18:
period in 2018 and higher interest expense on lease liabilities upon the S$837.7mn)
adoption of SFRS(I)16 Leases on 1 January 2019
Source: Company , PSR Dwindling net order book
Outlook 1Q19: S$5.8bn vs FY18: S$6.2bn
Exploration and development spending from the major integrated oil
companies is estimated to be US$221bn with an 18.8% YoY growth in 2019.
SMM will continue to ride through the cycle with the improving market
conditions
Could face the tightened liquidity issues in the near term due to the drawdown
of cash
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.US Weekly
Edmund Xue
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.US Weekly
Macro Last Week
The headline ISM Manufacturing index slumped to a two-year low. It declined from 55.3 to 52.8. New orders and production
indices declined markedly. Markit manufacturing PMI also hit a near 2-year low in April.
FOMC left the interest rates unchanged, but made a 5bps cut in the excess reserve (IOER) rate. GDP growth is “solid” but
core inflation (1.6% in March) is now “running below” the 2% target.
The 263,000 surge in payroll employment in April kept the six-month trend above 200,000, points to signs that domestic
demand growth has bounced back after a weak start to the year. Manufacturing payrolls rose by a subdued 4,000, after no
change in March
Week(s) Ahead – Key Indicators to be released
Consumer Inflation Expectations – 13 May
NFIB Business Optimism Index – 14 May
Retail Sales – 15 May
Industrial Production – 15 May
Housing Starts 16 May
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – 17 May
33
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Earnings Result Date
Phillip Securities Research - Earnings Estimates
Earnings Expected Current Earnings Consensus Target Price Prior Period Prior Period Prior Period Prior Period
Name Expected EPS Surprise Amount Surprise Amount
Result Date Revenue Result Date ($USD) Actual EPS Expected EPS Actual Revenue Expected Revenue
American International Group I 06-May-19 1.01 12229 13-Feb-19 52.00 -0.63 0.42 -250.7% #N/A N/A 11950 #VALUE!
Sempra Energy 07-May-19 1.68 3131 26-Feb-19 131.00 1.56 1.46 7.1% 3221 3044 5.8%
Electronic Arts Inc 07-May-19 0.52 1209 5-Feb-19 106.00 1.93 1.94 -0.6% 1609 1753 -8.2%
CBRE Group Inc 08-May-19 0.54 5075 13-Feb-19 56.00 1.21 1.13 7.6% 6294 5959 5.6%
Walt Disney Co/The 08-May-19 1.58 14525 5-Feb-19 140.00 1.84 1.54 19.3% 15303 15153 1.0%
Kraft Heinz Co/The 09-May-19 0.61 6069 21-Feb-19 36.00 0.84 0.94 -10.5% 6891 6936 -0.6%
Duke Energy Corp 09-May-19 0.98 6312 14-Feb-19 93.00 0.84 0.89 -5.7% 6115 5855 4.4%
Booking Holdings Inc 10-May-19 10.28 2934 27-Feb-19 2000.00 22.49 19.39 16.0% 3213 3219 -0.2%
Cisco Systems Inc 15-May-19 0.66 12874 13-Feb-19 55.50 0.73 0.72 0.8% 12446 12424 0.2%
NVIDIA Corp 16-May-19 0.56 2197 14-Feb-19 190.00 0.80 0.78 2.6% 2205 2202 0.1%
Walmart Inc 16-May-19 1.01 124955 19-Feb-19 111.00 1.41 1.34 5.5% 138793 138743 0.0%
Home Depot Inc/The 21-May-19 2.19 26500 26-Feb-19 206.50 2.27 2.16 4.7% 26491 26576 -0.3%
Costco Wholesale Corp 31-May-19 1.82 34642 7-Mar-19 252.50 2.01 1.69 18.8% 35396 35679 -0.8%
34
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Micro-Mechanics (Holdings) Ltd
Another miss
Paul Chew (+65 6212 1851)
Paul Chew
Head Of Research
Head of Research paulchewkl@phillip.com.sg
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
The report is produced by Phillip Securities Research under the ‘SGX StockFacts Research Programme’
(administered by SGX) and has received monetary compensation for the production of the report from the
entity mentioned in the report.
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities
accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Micro-Mechanics (Holdings)
(Neutral (Downgraded), TP: S$1.63, Last: S$1.63)
Positives Negatives
U.S. operations resilient with 8% growth. Leading the • Gross margins the lowest in 6-years; hurt by additional
penetration into front-end semiconductor equipment parts. headcount and machine capacity.
• Revenue at 3 consecutive quarter of decline and back to 2017
levels
Downgrade to Neutral: Earnings below expectations and we cut 11% PATMI. Lowered target price. Industry
logest contraction is 13 months and average 9 months. Already in 8th month of contraction. Dividend yield
of 6% as we wait for industry recovery.
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 36Industry stats – Back-end volumes Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2019. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 37
Sheng Siong Group
Still grabbing market share
Paul Chew (+65 6212 1851)
Paul Chew
Head Of Research
Head of Research paulchewkl@phillip.com.sg
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities
accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Sheng Siong Group
(Buy (Upgraded), TP: S$1.30, Last: S$1.03)
Positives Negatives
Sales growth healthy due to new stores • Same-store sales a worry
Secured 3 more new stores so far this year (+3% sft) • Operating expenses trended higher
Outlook
Revenue was a beat but earnings below. Supermarket sales in Singapore contracted almost 2% YTDFeb19, Sheng Siong would have
captured market share with their 10% jump; 11% growth in retail space for 2019 will help support growth.
Upgrade to BUY: Raise target price to S$1.30. Still a 25% ROE and $87mn net cash company.
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 39Week 19 - Phillip Singapore Weekly
Paul Chew
Head of Research
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
6 May 2019
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities
accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Week 19 – Short-term Views
Macro Last Week
SG macro: PMI fell back to lowest in 29-months; tourist arrivals in March experienced first
contraction in more than 2-years
US macro: Powell comments – 1) Inflation is transient (push USD and rate); 2) Allow higher
inflation by target interpretation (symmetric and average); unemployment at 3.6% the lowest
level since December 1969; no sign of inflation;
China macro: Weakness in PMI data
Corporate/Sector Last Week
Tactical
Interest rates may be lower for longer: Easy monetary policy will stay on longer and positive
for equities
Week(s) Ahead
8 May: China trade officials in U.S; 23/26May: EU Parliament elections;
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Week 19 – Still decelerating
Markit Global Manufacturing PMI
55
54
53
52
51
50
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Week 19 – Goldilock back for the U.S. Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2019. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Ask questions!
Analysts
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
Siti Nursyazwina, Research Admin
Paul Chew, Head of Research
Tara Wong, REITs (Commercial, Retail, Healthcare) | Property
Natalie Ong, REITs (Hospitality)
Chen Guangzhi, Oil and Gas | Energy
Tin Min Ying, Banking & Finance
Alvin Chia, Telco | Technology
Have an opinion or questions on our reports?
Post them in the comment section of the report! Mike Zheng Jieyuan, China/HK Markets
Edmund Xu, US Equity
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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2019. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
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