CFLs - Market Challenges - Jeffrey Bristol March 1, 2006
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
CFLs – Market Challenges Jeffrey Bristol March 1, 2006
CFL Environment
• Market Overview
• Application Trends
• Regulations/Market Insights:
• Supply & Demand
2Market Overview
3CFL Dollar Share of Total Lighting Segment
% Shr 11.9%
12%
Energy 11.3%
Crisis in 10.7%
11% CA
10.2%
9.6%
10%
8.9% 9.0%
9%
7.9%
8%
7%
6%
2001 2002 2003E 2004 2005Q1 2006E 2007E 2008E
• The CFL Category continues to take share away from the incandescent segment
• CFL Category will continue to grow, driven by ENERGY STAR, environmental concerns and product improvements
4
Source: 2001-2002 Triad Vista POS Data; Q4 2003-Q1 2005 Activant Home Center/Hardware PanelCFL Unit Share Growth of Total Lighting Segment
% Shr
7% 6.5%
5.6% 6.1%
6%
5.2%
5% 4.6%
3.9%
4%
3%
2% 1.2% 1.5%
1%
0%
2001 2002 2003E 2004 2005Q1 2006E 2007E 2008E
• The CFL segment continues to take away share from incandescent lamps
• Due to higher price points vs. other technologies, CFL unit share continues to be lower than in dollars
5
Source: 2001-2002 Triad Vista POS Data; Q4 2003-Q1 2005 Activant Home Center/Hardware PanelCFL Category Price and Sales Trends
$90,000 $ Sales $12
Thousands
$80,000 Avg Retail Price
$10
$70,000
$60,000 $8
$50,000
$6
$40,000
$30,000 $4
$20,000
$2
$10,000
$0 $0
4*
2*
4
2
4
2
4
2
4
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
00
01
01
02
03
04
04
02
03
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
6
Source: 2000-2002 Triad Vista POS Data; Q4 2003-Q1 2005 Activant Home Center/Hardware Panel *EstimatedCompact Fluorescent Mix Shift Opportunities
2006 2008
Percent of Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent
mix dimming 3-Way of mix dimming 3-Way
Twister Standard 85%
60% 20% 5%
Super Mini-Twister
Lamp types
A-Shape 1% 15% 50% 10%
Reflectors 13% 1% 15% 50%
Decorative 1% 10% 20%
As CFL understanding, performance, size & shape gets closer to Incandescent,
more consumers will trend towards the purchase of familiar looking lamps
7Application Trends
8Consumer Understanding
Application trends:
– Higher light output
– Improved start up
– Increased Life
– Improved light quality
– Dimmability frequently
requested ( Professional and
Consumer)
– More compact light sources
– Equal to Size, Shape &
Performance of Incandescent
9Consumer Understanding
• Consumer Misconceptions:
• CFLs / Fluorescents give off a harsh, off-color light
• CFLs do not start immediately
• Consumer Lack of Knowledge Regarding CFLs
• Shape is not as aesthetic as standard A19
• “Just a light bulb” but it costs more than a standard A19
“Peter Morante, director of energy programs at the Lighting Research Center at Rensselaer Polytechnic
Institute in Troy, N.Y., said the government's Energy Star ratings have given skeptical consumers
confidence that CFLs will perform as advertised. Still, he predicted it might be another decade before
CFLs rival incandescent bulb sales.“
”Growth Shines on Fluorescent Bulb Market,” New York Times, Published: February 20, 2006
10
Source: Focus Group FindingsConsumers want CFL’s to Function and Look like
Incandescent Counterparts
11Philips ENERGY SAVER60 Soft White Plus
16w = 60w CFL Vs. 60w Soft White Incandescent
5.31” 4.44”
Product Watts Hours Light Output Kelvin Temp. Height
Marathon Classic
16w = 60w 8,000 800 lumens 2700 4.52”
16w CFL
Incandescent Soft White 60w 750 850 lumens 2700 4.91”
12Philips ENERGY SAVER65 R30
16w = 65w BR30 CFL vs. 65w BR30 Incandescent
5.72” 5.38”
Product Watts Hours Light Output Kelvin Temp. Height
Marathon Classic
16w = 65w 8,000 750 lumens 2700 5.40”
16w BR30 CFL
Incandescent BR30 65w 2000 750 lumens 2700 5.38”
13Clear Consumer Packaging
• Product packaging must be designed to communicate the key
product attributes and differentiators
CFL Wattage
Clear Life Vs.
Statement Incandescent
Bulb
Clear
savings
Lifestyle information
imagery to
communicat
e
application
Energy
Star Logo
14Consistent Industry Standards For Life/Color
5100K Day-Light
4100K Cool White
3500K
3000K
2800K
2700K Soft White
Bug-A-
Way
There is Consumer Frustration with Inconsistent Colors Temperatures
and Life statements
15Regulations & Insights
16Trends Impacting CFLs
Environmental/Legislation
Energy Star
• Utility rebates to increase market penetration
California Title 20 and 24 legislation
• Moving industry to creating more efficient lamps through legislation
• Affecting existing fixtures and new construction
Mercury Awareness
• Ten states have introduced bills to regulate the labeling and/or disposal of
fluorescent lamps*
• At least 28 states are currently considering enacting legislation for various
household products containing mercury*
Social Consciousness
• Oprah and Hillary Clinton promoting CFL and “Change a Light Program”
The Greening of America: Americans are more environmentally conscious
Source: Ketchum Global Research Network, Jan 2006 17Trends Impacting CFLs
Regulations:
• New Energy Star 4.0 version in works
• Epact 2006/2007 – Stronger restrictions
on CFL (Must all meet Energy Star 2.0)
• Greater Emphasis on PNNL – high
temperature reflector testing
• California Title 20 and 24
• TCLP for CFL’s Reduced Mercury (<
5mg per Lamp)
18Manufacturers Need to be Commitment to
Sustainable Development
“We firmly believe that social and environmentally responsible
behavior contributes to sustained profitable growth and value
creation. That’s why we are embedding sustainability thinking
and acting throughout our organization.
Sustainability is built into our heritage, our values, and our
commitment to improve the quality of people’s lives.”
- Gerard
Kleisterlee,
President, Royal Philips Electronics
www.philips.com/sustainability
19Manufacturers Need to be Commitment to
Sustainable Development
• Sustainable Lighting Solutions:
– Reduce:
• Energy
• Toxicity
• Long Life
– Reuse:
• Materials
• Packaging
– Recycle:
• All lamps at the end of useful life
20Supply & Demand
21China’s CFLi supply side summary
Total sales of Chinese CFLi Suppliers in 2005
(million pcs)
1, 400
1, 200
Million pcs
1, 000
800
600
400
200
0
2000 2003 2004 2005
Year
Yearly Capacity (source: China Lighting Association)
Yearly Sales (source: CSG market research)
• Growth in CFLi continued in 2005
– 2000-2003: 4 times volume (average 58% increase per year)
– 2003-2004: ~15% increase
– 2005: >30% sales increase
• Capacity utilization in 2005 is 80% vs. 70% in previous year. due to increased
demand. Shortages in burners and glass
• European Standards for Lead-Free Glass/Solder as well as dimminishing costs of
product are causing manufacturers to rethink expansion and additional
manufacturing
22Discussion
23You can also read
