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COVID-19
IN SOUTH AFRICA
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
UNITED NATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 1
Glossary
AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
CGE Computable General Equilibrium
COVID-19 Coronavirus disease-2019
GDP Gross Domestic Product
HIV Human Immuno-deficiency Virus
MSME Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises
NIDS National Income Dynamics Study
SAM Social Accounting Matrix
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SMEs Small to Medium Enterprises
TERS Temporary Employer/Employee Relief Scheme
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNESCO The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization
WHO World Health Organization
UN agencies who participated in this study
ILO International Labour Organization
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
OHCHR Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human
Rights
UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
2 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19
Table of Contents
Glossary 2
List of Figures 4
List of Tables 5
PART 0NE
BACKGROUND ON COVID-19 & REVIEW OF LITERATURE ON COVID-19 IMPACT 9
Foreword 10
Acknowledgement 12
Preface 14
Executive Summary 16
PART TWO
BACKGROUND ON COVID-19 & REVIEW OF LITERATURE ON COVID-19 IMPACT 24
Phase one recovery: economic response: 28
Recovery: (Stimulus Package) 30
1. Objective & outline of the report 31
2. PUBLIC HEALTH PANDEMIC: LITERATURE REVIEW AND PATHWAYS 31
PART THREE
3.MICRO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 36
3.1 Context 38
3.2 Poverty Dynamics 39
3.2.1 Characteristics of households by social class. 43
3.3 Overview of the probability of falling into poverty due to COVID-19 47
Scenario 1: One member of the household is unemployed because of COVID-19
and the head of the household is female. 47
Scenario 2: One working household member lost their job due to COVID-19;
the only employed member of the household is female, but the work is not
permanent,
and she does not belong to a union. 47
Scenario 3: The head of the household is female, but the only work she can
do is casual (informal) because of COVID-19, and they have two kids. 48
3.4 Determinants of changes in poverty 50
Other Policy Questions: 52
PART FOUR
4. MACRO AND MICRO-MACRO SIMULATION RESULTS 54
4.1 Context 56
4.2 Macro-Micro Model 56
4.0 MACRO AND MICRO-MACRO SIMULATION RESULTS 56
4.3 Simulation Scenarios 59
4.4 Impact Pathways (Short term) 61
Commodity Prices 61
Domestic Demand 64
Domestic Supply 65
4.5 Simulation Results 66
4.5.1 GDP Growth 66
4.5.2 Unemployment 70
4.5.3 Fiscal Impact 73
4.5.4 Household Incomes 76
PART FIVE
5. CONCLUSIONS 82
References 90
Appendix A – Microeconomic analysis 91
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 3
List of Figures
Figure 1: Odds ratio of the probability of falling out of the middle class. 50
Figure 2: Year-on-year growth rate of remittances in South Africa. 51
Figure 3: Projection of GDP, constant prices, national currency (Billion) 65
Figure 4: Annual GDP Growth Under Various Scenarios (Percent) 66
Figure 5: Unemployment Rate under Various Scenarios (Percent) 68
Figure 6: Number of Unemployed under Various Scenarios (Thousands) 69
Figure 7: Structure of Employment Earnings by Categorisation of Labour
and Goods and Services 70
Figure 8: Structure of Income from Labour Market by Gender 70
Figure 9: Change in poverty headcount indices, COVID-19 compared to
BaU Scenario (Percentage point) 76
Figure 10: Change in poverty headcount indices and the food poverty line,
COVID-19 compared to BaU Scenario (Percentage point) 76
Figure 11: Headcount Poverty Index by Gender, Upper and Lower Poverty
Lines, COVID Scenarios Compared to BaU Scenario, Percentage Point 77
Figure 12: Change in Gini Index, COVID-19 compared to BaU Scenario
(Percentage point) 78
Figure 13: Change in income inequality, COVID-19 compared to BaU
Scenario (Percentage point) 79
Figure 14: Income share by category of income quintile of expenditure
group in 2017 79
4 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19
List of Tables
Table 1: Confirmed cases in South Africa by Province 25
Table 2: Poverty rate in South Africa using the NIDS data. 37
Table 3: Poverty dynamics in South Africa between 2008 & 2017.
All sample unbalanced 38
Table 4: Average probability and associated monetary thresholds 40
Table 5: Monthly household expenditure per capita by social class,
2008 to 2017. 40
Table 6: Average household characteristics by social class, 2008 to 2017. 42
Table 7: Characteristics of the head of the household by class 44
Table 8: Persons with a different combination of characteristics that
COVID-19 can affect. 46
Table 9: COVID-19 type events that households experienced between
2008 and 2017 and associated exits out of the middle class (or elite). 49
Table 10: Historical Trend 2014-2019 of Selected Commodity Real Prices,
Percent Annual Variation 60
Table 11: Projection 2020-2024 of Selected Commodity Prices Under
COVID Optimistic Scenario, percent Annual Variation Compared to BaU 60
Table 12: Projection 2020-2024 of Selected Commodity Prices Under
COVID Pessimistic Scenario, Percent Annual Variation 61
Table 13: Export and Import Prices, Average Annual Variation (Percent) 61
Table 14: Export and Import Volume, Average Annual Variation (Percent) 62
Table 15: Private Final Consumption, Average Annual Variation (Percent) 63
Table 16: Production Factor (Capital and Labour) Utilisation Compared to BaU 64
Table 17: GDP Growth Decomposition by Expenditure, Average Annual
Variation (Percent) 67
Table 18: GDP Growth Decomposition by Sector, Average Annual
Variation (Percent) 67
Table 19: Unemployment Rate by Labour Category, Percentage Point Variation 70
Table 20: Government Revenue and Balance, Percentage Point Variation 72
Table 21: Government Revenue and Balance, Percentage Variation 72
Table 22: Tax Revenues, Percentage Variation 73
Table 23: Household Gross Income, Percentage Variation 74
Table 24: Change in Household Employment Income, Real Terms (Percent) 75
Table 25: Challenges of achieving SDGs in South Africa and the threat of COVID-19 84
Table A1: Multivariate probit model: Poverty transitions 89
Table A2: Logit model: Probability of exit out of the middle class (or elite) 91
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 5
COVID-19 IN SOUTH AFRICA
SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
UNITED NATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Any use of information,
in full or in part, should be accompanied by
an acknowledgement of UNDP South Africa as the source.
All rights reserved. | ©UNDP South Africa 2020
For enquiries, please contact:
United Nations Development Programme |
UN House Level 10, Metropark Building | 351 Francis Baard Street
PO Box 6541, Pretoria | Email: communications.za@undp.org | Web: www.za.undp.org
Twitter: @UNDPSouthAfrica | Facebook: UNDPSouthAfrica
Published for the
United Nations
Development
Programme
(UNDP)
6 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 7
8 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19
Part BACKGROUND ON
One: COVID-19 & REVIEW
OF LITERATURE ON
COVID-19 IMPACT
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 9
Foreword
Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma Ms Nardos Bekele-Thomas
The COVID-19 Pandemic has changed the decline in real GDP growth by 3.6 percent
world as we knew it. In the words of the in 2020 – under this report’s “optimistic
Secretary General of the United Nations scenario” – resulting in an overall decline
“We have been brought to our knees – by a of GDP growth by 5.1 percentage points,
microscopic virus… It has laid bare risks we as compared to the economy’s projected
have ignored for decades: inadequate health performance before the onset of the
systems; gaps in social protection; structural COVID-19. Under this report’s “pessimistic
inequalities; environmental degradation; the scenario,” GDP is likely to fall by 6.4 percent,
climate crisis.” leading to a nearly 7.9 percentage point
Today globally there are over 15 million decline in 2020, compared to the economic
cases. The rapid spread of the virus, which performance projected before the onset of
knows no borders affects every country. It the COVID-19. As a result, at least five years
will challenge the global economy, al be it must pass for South Africa’s economy to
not to the same intensity. return to pre-2019 levels – unless innovative
South Africa ranks amongst the most infected actions are implemented.
countries in the world. The virus has set back The consequences born of the COVID-19
the gains we had made in the 26 years since outbreak are likely to further exacerbate
the dawn of democracy. It also came at a time poverty and inequality in South Africa. The
when our economy was greatly challenged unemployment threatens to become further
with pedestrian growth and limited wealth precarious – with the highest risks for informal
redistribution, thus making South Africa one workers and female-headed households. The
of the most unequal nations in the world. impacts of COVID-19 on gender issues are
The ripple effects of the virus impacted upon very worrying and can curtail the gains made
women more, with them having lost the most on advancing gender equality and women
income and jobs, especially in the informal empowerment in the past few decades
sector where they are in the majority. unless concerted efforts are taken to curtail
The development consequences of the these consequences. As businesses change
COVID-19 outbreak are likely to lead to a contract types – from permanent to temporal
10 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19– as a financial coping mechanism, it is sectors in the economy including the arts,
probable that nearly 44 percent of people sports and tourism. However key sectors
will fall into poverty. In the same vein, the such as the informal and SMME sectors
number of households falling from lower- have not received adequate support. Going
middle class below the upper-level poverty forward through the District Development
line and the number of households falling Model, efforts will be coordsinated and
below the chronic poverty line increases due integrated to lift these and other sectors.
to the impact of COVID-19. The most affected Efforts will be made to reach to all persons in
persons are semi- and unskilled-workers and order to leave no one behind. Ensuring that
female headed households with at least two all are served – and properly so – is critical
children. This reality will further exacerbate to attaining the Sustainable Development
the already wide income inequalities, as the Goals (SDGs) as a country. Government and
COVID-19 is complicating income exclusion other stakeholders therefore will enhance
with the highest incidence on the black support to all persons without regard to
population, who are already disadvantaged. location, gender, nationality, creed, and race
Consequently, the South African government as enshrined in the Charter of the United
response seeks to maintain a delicate balance Nations, of which South Africa is subscribed
between saving lives and livelihoods. Thus, and the South African Constitution.
through messaging directed at adjusting To fight COVID-19 effectively and ensure the
social behaviour which includes the wearing economy’s recovery, collective support to
of masks, washing of hands, sanitizing, and programmatic actions and policy options is
maintaining a safe social distance have been required. This entails all stakeholders putting
integral to the response. Which response in all necessary effort and resources to
also seeks to ensure the flattening of the provide the needed support. The UN System
curve healthcare system is adequately in South Africa is committed to continuing
prepared and equipped to deal with the to fully support each Agency’s mandate
pandemic. Gradually, as progress was being to stand in solidarity with the country and
recorded, the South African government was support the South African Government to
able to open up the economy through the overcome these three development
Risk Adjusted Strategy. The strategy includes challenges whose circumstances are likely to
an alert system to determine the level of worsen due to COVID-19. This togetherness
restrictions in place, an industry classification is evident in our collective and unyielding
for readiness to return to work and enhances support to policy briefs and innovative
workplace public health, hygiene and studies, as well as support to refugees,
social distancing. This strategy has been children, the informal sector, youth, migrants,
complemented by a socio economic support health systems, and all other thematic areas.
and rescue package which includes social
relief for the vulnerable and support to key The call for action is now.
Signed Signed
____________________ ____________________
Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma Ms Nardos Bekele-Thomas
Minister for Cooperative Governance and UN Resident Coordinator
Traditional Affairs South Africa
South Africa
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 11Acknowledgement
This study was prepared by the United Interim Board of the UN Global Compact
Nations in South Africa under the Local Network in South Africa and a board
auspices of the Resident Coordinator, member of Shared Value Africa Initiative;
Mrs Nardos Bekele-Thomas, and through Ms Keketso Naema, Chief Executive
the leadership of the United Nations Officer, Gender Commission; Mr Sizwe
Development Programme (UNDP). The Nxasana , Founder Sifiso Learning Group;
UNDP Resident Representative, Dr and Ms Natalie Africa, Senior Advisor, Bill
Ayodele Odusola’s, relentless guidance and Melinda Gates Foundation.
was instrumental in the quality of the study
and relevance to policy contributions. Due recognition is accorded to Prof
The United Nations Technical Team with Babatunde Abidoye, George Mason
representatives from RCO, ILO, FAO, University and Prof Margaret Chitiga,
UNOHCR, UNDP, UNIDO, and UN Women University of Pretoria, lead authors of
brought an all-encompassing view this study, for their expertise, objectivity,
and distinct dimensions of those most and also for their patience in ensuring
affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. all comments are duly considered. We
would also like to thank Field & Insights
Appreciation is extended to the Connections for conducting the surveys
Sounding Board, consisting of eminent on the Psychological Effects of COVID-19
policymakers, researchers, members of on Hospital Staff and household surveys
think tanks and academia, civil society, on the socioeconomic impact
and the private sector who provided of COVID-19 in South Africa.
insights on the realities of the country
context, thus enhancing applicability This study is driven by an internal
of the study’s findings. Members of UNDP team under the stewardship
the Sounding Board are: Mr Tshediso of the Economic Advisor, Ms Fatou
Matona, Executive Secretary, National Leigh. The team consisted of Deputy
Planning Commission (NPC) Presidency; Resident Representative Mr Gabriel
Mr Risenga Maluleke. Statistician, General Dava, Mr Shihao Han, Programme
Statistics South Africa; Mr Robin Toli, Analyst UNV China; Ms Sara Hamano,
Chief Director, International Development Programme Analyst, UNV Japan; Ms
Cooperation, National Treasury; Prof Nokuthula Nyamweda, Economist
Ivan Turok, Executive Director, Economic Intern; Ms Karabo Moloi, Economist
Performance and Development, Human Intern; Dr Nelly Mwaka, Gender
Sciences Research Council; Dr Pali Specialist; Mr Kordzo Sedegah, National
Lehohla, Researcher and Consultant, Economist, Ghana; Ms Rhulani Lehloka,
Oxford Poverty and Human Development Communication Analyst; Mr Bobby
Initiative; Dr David Everatt, Head, School Shabangu, Knowledge Management;
of Governance, Wits University; Ms and Mr James Neuhaus, Partnerships
Namhla Mniki Mangaliso, Director, African and Resource Mobilisation Specialist.
Monitor; Dr Linda Vilakazi, Managing The team developed concept notes and
Director, Zanele Mbeki Development policy briefs, provided critical reviews,
Trust; Ms Nozipho January Bardill, Chair: and created infographics.
12 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19The untiring administrative and Ms Nozika Moasa, Procurement Unit, is
logistics support of Ms Yoliswa Macoba, truly valued. Kwambele (PTY) Ltd copy-
Executive Assistant; Ms Sibongile edited, designed and printed this study.
Kubeka, Programme Analyst; Ms Artists and photographers whose work is
Takalani Radzilani, Mr Augustus Maselela used in this report: Nuno Acosta, Joseph
Mokoka, and Ms Siphelele Moloi for IT Rwubusisi, Morris Moma of Morris Photos,
Support; and Ms Lerato Maimela and Sonwabo Valashiya, Bandile Gumede.
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 13Preface
by the Moody’s downgrade of the
sovereign credit rating to junk status,
making early and fast recovery very
challenging. The Government’s strong
leadership and bold actions to contain
the pandemic (including a total lockdown,
implementation of a stimulus package,
aggressive screening, and testing)
were globally acknowledged; yet the
COVID-19 remained untamed in the first
five months – with devastating impacts
on the economy and the population.
This study, conducted in the first three
months of the COVID-19 in South Africa,
uses a combination of primary and
secondary information – constituting one
of a series of impact studies conducted
by the United Nations system under the
leadership of the Resident Coordinator,
with technical leadership from the United
Nations Development Programme
Dr Ayodele Odusola (UNDP) in partnership with associated
Government departments. The report
benefits from perspectives of prominent
The COVID-19 pandemic represents the policymakers, civil society, researchers
biggest shock, over the past century, and academia, and the private sector
to the global public health system through an apposite Sounding Board
with resounding impact on economies Group.
and societies – reversing progress on Key messages from the study offer
human development achieved over substantial evidence to inform
decades and impeding achievement responses to the pandemic. For instance,
of the Sustainable Development Goals populations living in poverty across
(SDGs) by the year 2030. The pandemic upper and lower poverty lines increase
created uncertainties that led countries due to COVID19, with higher incidences
to take bold actions (including complete on female headed households, rural
lockdowns of economies and social dwellers, populations with education
activities) to safeguard public health. below the secondary level, unskilled
Such efforts, adopted to flatten the labour, and informal sector workers.
COVID-19 curve, unfortunately and Apart from the fact that about 54 percent
coincidentally steepen the curve of of households pushed out of permanent
economic recession in many countries. employment to informal jobs are likely to
The pandemic started when the fall into poverty, about 34 percent of those
South African economy experienced a categorized as middle class are also
technical recession, further complicated likely to fall into vulnerability or poverty.
14 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19The devastating impact of COVID-19 is into the impact of the pandemic, the
complicating income inequality, with the road to early recovery from COVID-19,
highest incidence affecting the black and pathways to build back better and
population. Overall, it may take at least innovatively.
5 years for the economy to return to pre-
2019 levels, unless innovative actions Signed
are implemented.
The report concludes that there
is no silver bullet policy action – a ____________________
combination of innovative policy actions
is needed. In addition to implementing Dr Ayodele Odusola
macroeconomic measures like reduced UNDP Resident Representative
lending rates, tax deferrals, and South Africa
debt rescheduling, ensuring no one
is left behind calls for targeting the
most vulnerable populations, like the
marginalized women and unskilled
workers, especially those in the
informal sectors, through differentiated
interventions, including deepening
social assistance and re-skilling
programmes for unskilled workers. With
strong leadership and an understanding
followership, this crisis could be turned
to an accelerated, inclusive-growth
economic strategy through local
production of PPEs, medical devices, and
diagnostic equipment through strategic
support to small scale enterprises and
creating enabling environments that
allow SMEs to thrive.
It is our wish that this report contributes
to the efforts of government partners,
development agencies, civil society,
and the private sector, providing insight
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 15Executive Summary
On 23 March 2020, President Cyril Such an extraordinary response
Ramaphosa announced a new measure is expected to significantly impact
to combat the spread of Coronavirus the people and the economy. The
Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Africa objective of this study is to contribute
– a three-week nationwide lockdown to the analysis and understanding of
with severe restrictions on travel and the impact of COVID-19 on the economy
movement, supported by the South and importantly on the people in South
African National Defence Force – from Africa and from there promote the use
midnight on Thursday, 26 March, to of evidence-informed information for
midnight on Thursday, 16 April. The policy and recovery. This study uses
president said more is needed to avoid three complementary methodologies
“an enormous catastrophe” among the to generate robust findings to reflect
population. the realities on the ground: (i) a
microsimulation model estimating the
impact of COVID-19 on household
poverty in South Africa using data from the
South African National Income Dynamics
Study (NIDS). Using a multivariate probit
model, the study focuses on how
COVID-19 will drive temporary and long-
term changes in poverty levels in South
Africa and predicts the probability of
selected demographics falling into each
of the defined poverty classes, (ii) a
dynamic macroeconomic non-financial
Computable General Equilibrium Model
(CGE) calibrated to a 2015 Social
Accounting Matrix (SAM) updated to
2017, analysing the impact of COVID-19
on economic growth, unemployment
and inequalities within a framework of
an optimistic and pessimistic scenarios
FROM TO in consideration of the situation before
26 16 COVID-19, and (iii) a qualitative analysis
capturing the perception and feelings
March April of people on the impact of COVID-19
on their lives and work, through a
survey on people working in hospitals
and a second survey to understand the
supported by the South African
immediate impact on the general public.
National Defence Force
16 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19Methodology and “non-poor”, disaggregating into five
classifications that signify the potential of
This study provides one of the first shocks to change a household’s financial
modelling assessments to understand status. The methodology reclassifies
that impact, looking at the household households into “elite,” “upper-middle-
as a micro-unit and the macroeconomic class” or “vulnerable class” (reclassifying
effect that captures feedback and the classic middle class) and the “chronic
interactions within the economy. These poor” and “transient poor” (reclassifying
models work sequentially in the sense the classic poor).
that results from the macro model infer
the impact of the pandemic on poverty The CGE model simulated three
and inequality. This analysis is important scenarios: 1) a “Business as Usual” (BaU)
scenario, 2) an “optimistic” scenario,
1
MICROSIMULATION MODEL
and 3) a “pessimistic” scenario. The
COVID-19 scenarios are fashioned on
the assumption that a period of the
pandemic outside South Africa will
precede South Africa’s experience of
the disease. The BaU scenario tracks
DYNAMIC MACROECONOMIC the projected average growth of South
2
NON-FINANCIAL COMPUTABLE Africa’s economy using the 2019 growth
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
rates from the International Monetary
Fund’s World Economic Outlook
3
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
given the uncertainties that surround
not only the health aspects of COVID-19,
itself, but also the impact on the economy
and households as well as the possible
response by governments. As we learn
more about the pandemic, the model can
be adjusted to reflect impacts and well
as the responses of the government.
The microeconomic model evaluates
poverty levels, dynamics, and the
factors that drive households in and
out of poverty. The model goes beyond
the definition of poverty only as “poor”
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 17data. This is followed by a period Key Findings
of suppressed economic activities,
in which only essential sectors and • The main findings at the household
commodities are traded internally. After level show that female-headed
this period, the economy is then allowed households are more likely to fall
to get back to normal, albeit gradually. into poverty than male-headed
The optimistic scenario is less severe households. Under the optimistic
than the pessimistic scenario, including scenario, the percentage increase in
a lockdown period of one month. The the number of females who fell below
pandemic period assumed for the the Lower Bound Poverty Line (LBPL)
optimistic scenario totals fifteen months. is 0.39% (equivalent to about 117
The pessimistic scenario, on the other
hand, is assumed to have a lockdown female-headed households are
period of one month followed by a more likely to fall into poverty than
prolonged re-opening of the economy male-headed households.
and society at-large. The pandemic lasts
for thirty months in this scenario.
Three main transmission channels
through which the effects of the
pandemic feed into the economy in
the short term are identified. These are
through international trade markets,
domestic demand, and domestic supply
channels. Regarding international trade
markets, the pandemic slows down 000) compared to 0.24% (equivalent
and, in some cases, halts world trade to about 69 072) for males. For the
activities affecting imports and exports. Upper Bound Poverty Line (UBPL)
Regarding the domestic demand side, percentage increase of females is
the various measures put in place by 0.33% compared to 0.24% for males.
government reduce demand. On the Similarly, under the pessimistic
domestic supply side, the productivity of scenario, the percentage increase in
both capital and labour are reduced due females that fall below the LBPL is
to the pandemic. 0.56% compared to 0.48% for males;
and for the UBPL, 0.48% for females
To gather the perceptions of people, and 0.36% for males.
data was collected through telephone • The higher the level of education
interviews (CATI), Email, and SMS achieved by the head of household,
surveying techniques from 14-26 April the lower the probability of this
2020 and from 25 May-3 June 2020 to household falling into poverty, with
obtain supplementary data from hospital the average marginal impact higher
workers. The sample was nationally for when secondary school was not
represented by race, age, gender and completed than those with tertiary
location and with a natural fallout of level of education.
Living Standard Measures (LSM) across • Employment is vital for poverty
provinces. The survey was administered transition, since households who
in English, Zulu, Xhosa, Setswana, Sepedi experience more secure employment
and Sesotho (permanent, union, and self-employed
18 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19household in the formal sector) have
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) FALLS
a lower probability of falling into
AND DOES NOT RECOVER EVEN BY 2024
poverty.
• The study also shows that Black
Africans and households with many
GDP
dependents have a higher likelihood
of being poor.
• The number of people living under
the upper and lower poverty lines
(poverty and extreme poverty)
increase due to the pandemic.1
• Poorer households are more equating to a fall in GDP growth
negatively affected by the pandemic of 7.9 percentage points in 2020
mainly through the unskilled labour relative to the BaU growth.
and wage reduction compared to the
richer households. Hence inequality There are relative “winners” and “losers”
as measured by the Gini coefficient among the sectors as a result of the
index increased by 0.16 in the pandemic:
optimistic scenario and 0.23 in the Ղ The winning sectors are those
pessimistic scenario. designated as essential, including
• The analysis also suggests that the the health sector, the food and
current stimulus package may not be agriculture sector, financial and
sufficient given that households are insurance service sectors and
still going to lose at least 40 percent telecommunication services
of their income even if they qualify sector.
for the special Temporary Employee/ Ղ The losing sectors include
Employer Relief Scheme (TERS). textiles, glass products, footwear,
Based on data from households that education services, catering and
experienced at least a 10 percent accommodation (which contains
reduction in income alone before the tourism as per the United Nations
pandemic, the results show that their System of National Accounts
odds of falling into poverty is 1.5. classification), beverages and
tobacco sectors.
The main findings at the macro level
are: • Unemployment increases with about
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) falls 47 082 people losing their jobs in the
and does not recover even by 2024 optimistic scenario and as many as
as a result of the pandemic. 80 712 people losing their jobs in the
Ղ GDP declines by 3.6 percent pessimistic scenario in 2020. With
in 2020 under the optimistic the easing of lockdown restrictions
scenario, equating to a fall in GDP and government measures to revive
growth of 5.1 percentage points the economy, unemployment also
from the BaU growth. recovers but similar to economic
Ղ GDP declines by 6.4 percent growth, the unemployment will take
under the pessimistic scenario, at least five years to recover to pre-
1 The FPL was R531 with an upper bound poverty line of R1 138 and a lower bound poverty line of R501 (per capita, per month)
in 2017 PPPs.
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 19COVID levels. rate as before the COVID-19 pandemic
Aggregate household income falls. (i.e., in the absence of a stimulus
Upon disaggregation, it emerges that: package). As a result government
Ղ The hardest hit are workers with deficits increase
only primary school education
(grades 1-7) and those with Key findings with respect to the surveys
only middle school education • 66.3% of the respondents believe
(grades 8-11), who are generally that the South African government
characterised as unskilled and has the ability to handle the current
semi-skilled, respectively, since COVID-19 pandemic. The confidence
they receive the majority of in the government’s ability to handle
their wage income from sectors COVID-19 can be attributed to positive
that are designated to be non- support of the lockdown and the fact
essential and were closed during that the majority of the respondents
the lockdown period. believe that closing the borders is
Ղ Workers who completed effective in controlling the COVID-19
secondary school education outbreak.
(grade 12) and those with tertiary • About 60 percent of respondents feel
education (certificates, diplomas
or degrees) receive the majority 66.3% of the respondents believe that the
South African government has the ability
of their income from sectors that
to handle the current COVID-19 pandemic.
are designated as essential, which
generally continued to operate
during the lockdown period.
Ղ Most of the job losses reflect
people who worked in the informal
sector.
I D E N T
ONF
• Income inequality increases due to the
C
pandemic, exacerbating the already
high-income disparities in South Africa,
and compromising South Africa’s
progress towards attaining targets
under the Sustainable Development they have enough knowledge about
Goals particularly regarding poverty, infectivity and virulence, whereas
health, education, employment and 69.2 percent feel they have adequate
inequalities. Women, particularly in the knowledge about protection and
poorest female-headed households, prevention from infection of COVID –
disproportionately bear the brunt of 19.
the impact of COVID-19. • There was no greater perceived food
• Consumer prices are falling due to shortage. Most everyday/regular food
suppressed aggregate demand in the items were easily available. Some
economy. grocery outlets limited quantities on
• Government revenue falls by 3.5% in bulk purchasing. In order to stretch
the optimistic scenario and by 5.1% food items and to curb increased
in the pessimistic scenario in 2020. food spending, respondents would
This is attributable to the depressed eat less food, skip meals and ration
economy as well as government plate portions.
expenditures growing at the same • Over half of the people that work at
20 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19COVID-19 hospitals (workers age 18- 2019 levels unless innovative actions
24) rarely felt anxious about being are implemented.
infected with COVID-19 or being 2. A government rescue response,
infected while commuting to work. stimulus package, or social protection
• Workers that are 65 years and older programme typically targets
also felt always protected by the businesses and the chronically poor
hospital. in society. The number of households
• Doctors feel physical and mental below the upper-level poverty line
exhaustion sometimes more than increases as households fall from the
nurses and other workers. Nurses lower middle class; the number of
have less motivation to work than households falling into chronic poverty
doctors and other workers. also increases due to COVID-19.
• Workers that indicate that they feel 3. While support to these households in
protected are also more likely to be the chronic poverty group continues
motivated, indicating that hospitals to be essential, this study makes
that protect their workers leads to a case for other categories of
workers who are more motivated, households that should be protected
which is important for recovery during to at least preserve poverty levels
COVID-19. before COVID-19. The transient poor
• Exhausted workers are also more likely and vulnerable poor2 are essential
to be anxious and a high workload groups that need special attention
increases anxiety. Protection and in line with the country’s poverty
anxiety are not correlated. reduction strategies. A government
• Female workers are less motivated, policy to maintain the current poverty
less anxious, more likely to feel a high rate, for instance, would include
workload, and feel less protected. maintaining income and expenditure
of households in the vulnerable class.
Twelve Key Emerging Messages 4. Poverty levels will increase by 0.45%
(about 264 510 households) in the
1. Economic growth (GDP) will decrease optimistic scenario and by 0.66%
by 5.1% in the optimistic scenario and (about 387 948 households) in the
by as much as 7.9% in the pessimistic pessimistic scenario in 2020 and
scenario. It may take at least five years more households will be vulnerable
for the economy to return to the pre- to shocks. Targeting will be critical for
government support to be effective.
ECONOMIC GROWTH (GDP) WILL DECREASE BY: This targeting can be by geography,
5.1% (OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO)
7.9% PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO. education, household size, household
poverty level, gender dimensions, skill
levels, and form of employment.
GDP
5. COVID-19 is complicating income
exclusion with the highest incidence
on the black population.
6. Thirty-four percent of households
are likely to exit the middle class into
vulnerability.
2 - For more disaggregated analysis, the Poor are classified into Chronic poor and Transient poor, and the Non-Poor into
Vulnerable, Middle class, and Elite based on vulnerability criterion. This broader definition of both the poor and the middle class
identifies a household at risk of falling in and out of poverty. (Schotte et al., (2018)
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 217. The households whose employment POLICY INTERVENTIONS NEED TO PAY
type changes from permanent to SPECIFIC ATTENTION TO THOSE PERSONS
HURT THE MOST BY COVID-19.
contract employment have a 44
percent chance of falling into poverty.
Switching contract types from
permanent to temporary is a coping
mechanism for many businesses
affected by COVID-19.
8. A household that is pushed from
permanent employment to informal
work after the six-month stimulus
package is over will have a 54 percent
chance of falling into poverty.
9. 54 percent of households pushed out
of permanent to informal jobs after the predicted losses.
stimulus package will likely to fall into
poverty. Semi and unskilled workers • For households, this should be
are the hardest hit. The negative according to household poverty level
impact of COVID-19 is higher on those and its gender dimension (including
without social assistance than on extending social assistance and
those who receive social protection. creating new instruments), as well as
10. Technology and digitisation has marital status and number of children.
proven to be a “human right” as it Differentiated interventions should
redefined access to work, income be made considering gender and the
and schooling during the lockdown sex of the household head because of
periods necessitated by Covid-19. income source and level of education
11. Doctors and nurses feel less protected (women derive a larger share of
than other workers. Public hospital their income from lower-skilled
workers are less motivated and feel work). The differentiated impact
less protected relative to private also includes differences in location
hospital workers. (urban versus rural areas) and type
12. There is no silver bullet policy action of employment (permanent versus
– combined innovative policy actions casual employment).
are needed. • For workers, interventions can be
differentiated according to skill
Policy Recommendations category (those who occupy unskilled
and semi-skilled occupations,
Policy interventions need to pay specific including those requiring re-skilling
attention to those persons hurt the programmes and the expansion of
most by COVID-19. Broadly, a strategic public works programmes). For the
thrust in interventions is usually targeted low skilled and less educated, re-
towards persons most disadvantaged in skilling programmes for those in the
terms of poverty, inequality, and sectoral/ informal sector will reduce the impact
production impact. A new dimension of some consequences of COVID-19.
added by this study is that intervention These households achieved primary
responses mitigating the impact of school education (grades 1-7), and
COVID-19 need to be differentiated by middle school education (grades
22 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-198-11); re-skilling programmes will be take place. The growth rate that is still
necessary if the head of household in line with the shift to a low-carbon
is out of work. Also, the workers from economy and climate-resilient society,
economic sectors most affected such despite the impact of COVID-19, will
as textiles, glass products, footwear, be an essential part of the gradual
and catering and accommodation restructuring package.
will require retraining to be able to • It is critical that measures are taken for
work in the winning sectors such as medical workers in public hospitals
telecommunications and service. and for doctors and nurses to feel
• For sectors, a particular focus should be more protected. This can be promoted
on those designated as non-essential, through ensuring a safer environment
specifically in textiles, glass products, and increase in equipment and staff.
footwear, education services, catering
and accommodation, beverages and As the COVID-19 disease evolves
tobacco sectors. For the SMMEs in and more information is available,
these sectors to recover and play a the government is closely reopening
role in economic recovery, support in the economy through a five-phase
terms of increasing liquidity through approach, whereby Level 5 was the most
either direct fiscal support or tax restrictive. South Africa moved to Level
breaks will help. One of the significant 3 in June 2020. Reopening the economy
risks to SMMEs is the liquidity crunch will include easing and adopting
that the lockdown created. The role alternative lockdown measures to spur
of the private sector and SMMEs in economic activity. Continuously cautious
recovery cannot be underestimated approaches to social distancing and alert
and should include supporting the measures can help the recovery, the
transition to digital technologies opening of the economy, and minimise
and improving digital skills. Policy the recurring spread of COVID-19.
measures such as boosting liquidity
measures, tax deferrals, and job
support, among others, may also be
considered for SMMEs in the informal
sector.
• A big part of the current social
protection programme announced by
the government provides additional
funding to existing social grants in
South Africa. These grants may need
to be extended to cover vulnerable
households that are not currently
considered poor but at the edge of
poverty. Deepening social grants
3
beyond the current amount and a
•
time extension will be useful.
It is essential for the restructuring
ALERT
package to be directed towards the
economic sectors where growth will LEVEL
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 23Part BACKGROUND ON
Two: COVID-19 & REVIEW
OF LITERATURE ON
COVID-19 IMPACT
24 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 25
Introduction
This report is part of the study on the
socioeconomic impact of COVID-19
on households in South Africa by
the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP). It focuses on
how the COVID-19 pandemic affects
households and the economy through
multiple channels. These channels can
include the loss of employment, death
of family members, and psychological
effects on health workers. Furthermore,
due to the regulation implemented by
the government to curb the spread of
the virus, the channels into the economy
include domestic demand and supply
shocks, as well as international trade
shocks. This report is divided into three
sections:
Background on COVID-19
& Review of Literature on
COVID-19 Impact
OVERVIEW
As of 24 April 2020, South Africa
conducted 152 390 tests with 3 953
positive cases (Table 1) and 1 473
recoveries, with 79 deaths. As of
April 6, the total number of confirmed
COVID-19 cases was 1 686, showing an
increase of 2 267 within 18 days.
26 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19Table 1: Confirmed cases in South Africa by Province
1413
16
480
111
25
1280
841
24
29
WESTERN CAPE
CAPE
NORTHERN
EASTERN CAPE
FREE STATE
NORTH WEST
GAUTENG
KWAZULU – NATAL
MPUMALANGA
LIMPOPO
Source: Update on COVID-19 (24th April 2020) Press Releases and Notices.
https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/04/24/update-on-covid-19-24th-april-2020/
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 27PHASE ONE RECOVERY:
ECONOMIC RESPONSE:
On 15 March 2020, in a statement made Monday 16 March: South Africa has
by the South African President, His 72 ports of entry across land, sea,
Excellency President Cyril Ramaphosa, and airports.
the government outlined measures to • 35 of the 53 land ports were
combat the COVID-19 epidemic in South closed.
Africa. The first phase included a broad • Two of the eight seaports were
range of measures to mitigate the worst closed for passengers and crew
effects of the pandemic on businesses, changes.
on communities, and on individuals. The 4. Minimising the risk of the spread by
measures included tax relief, the release limiting contact amongst groups of
of disaster relief funds, emergency people.
procurement, wage support through the • Gatherings of more than 100
Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF), and people were prohibited.
funding to small businesses.3 • Mass celebrations of national days
such as Human Rights Day and
The specific rules announced included: other large government events
1. A declaration of a national state of were subsequently cancelled.
disaster in regards to the Disaster • Where small gatherings are
Management Act to enable an unavoidable, organisers are
integrated and coordinated disaster required to put in place stringent
management mechanism that measures of prevention and
focuses on preventing and reducing control.
the outbreak of the virus. • Schools were closed from
2. Limited contact between persons Wednesday, 18 March, and
who may be infected and those not instructed to remain closed until
yet infected, including imposing a after the Easter Weekend. This
travel ban on foreign nationals from condition was subsequently
high-risk countries such as Italy, Iran, updated to closure until further
South Korea, Spain, Germany, the notice.
United States, the United Kingdom,
and China with effect from 18 March At the time of the first statement, there
2020. was no requirement to close businesses
• Travellers from medium-risk and public places. The president only
countries – such as Portugal, called on companies including mining,
Hong Kong, and Singapore – retail, banking, farms, management of
were required to undergo high- malls, entertainment centres, and other
intensity screening. places frequented by large numbers of
3. Closure of borders and ports from people to bolster their hygiene control.
3 https://www.cnbcafrica.com/coronavirus/2020/04/21/COVID-19-sa-announces-r500bn-stimulus-package-about-10-of-gdp/
28 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19The message also included suggested The statement also showed the potential
changes in behavioural patterns amongst impact of COVID-19 on the economy. The
all South Africans, including: president noted the dramatic decline in
• washing hands frequently with soap economic activity in South Africa’s major
and water, or using hand sanitizers, trading partners, with a sudden drop in
for at least 20 seconds; international tourism and severe instability
• covering nose and mouth with a across all global markets. It was expected
tissue or flexed elbow when coughing that an increase in infections – and the
and sneezing; measures required to contain the spread of
• avoiding close contact with anyone the disease – would worsen the predicted
with cold or flu-like symptoms and effects of the decline in exports and tourist
minimising physical contact with arrivals. This will have a potentially severe
other people. impact on production, the viability of
businesses, job retention, and job creation.
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 29RECOVERY:
(STIMULUS PACKAGE)
As part of the second phase of recovery in the remaining R330 billion (roughly 6.5
South Africa, the government announced percent of GDP), will be raised both from
a massive social relief and economic local sources, such as the UIF, and from
support package of R500 billion, which global partners and international financial
amounts to around 10 percent of GDP. institutions. The exact source of the
This fiscal support package is at the balance is still in progress.
centre of the government’s second phase
economic response. The objective of the report is to gain a
deeper understanding of the impact of
According to the statement released by COVID-19 on growth and employment
the government, this response involves:
1. An extraordinary health budget to
respond to coronavirus,
2. The relief of hunger and social
distress,
3. Support for companies and workers,
4. The phased re-opening of the
economy.
The relief of hunger and social distress
includes increasing funds for child
support grant beneficiaries by an extra
R300 in May and from June to October
they will receive an additional R500 each
month. All other grant beneficiaries will
also receive an extra R250 per month for
six months (May to October). Further, a
special COVID-10 Social Relief of Distress
grant of R350 a month for the next
six months will be paid to cover those
who are currently unemployed and not
beneficiaries of any other social grant or
UIF payment (requirement and process
still pending as at the time of this report).
The R500 billion will be paid for by
repurposing R130 billion within the current
budget, R44 billion worth of temporary
tax referrals (which National Treasury
has described as liquidity support), while
30 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-191. OBJECTIVE
& OUTLINE OF
THE REPORT
African economy.
Two other reports are in the pipeline
to support the Government of South
Africa in its response to COVID-19.
These are respectively, (1) the results of
the psychological impact of COVID-19
on healthcare workers to estimate the
capacity of the health centres in a time of
crisis and (2) analysis of a socioeconomic
survey carried out in April 2020 that is
representative of South Africa, including
rural-urban and township.
at the macro level and poverty and
inequalities at the household level and
the implications on the attainment of the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). 2. PUBLIC
The report analysed the impact on the
economy and examined how people HEALTH
of different demographics and from
various areas are affected by COVID-19. PANDEMIC:
To understand and measure the socio-
economic impact and awareness of LITERATURE
COVID-19 on South African households
under the stewardship of the Resident REVIEW AND
Coordinator, the United Nations (UN) in
South Africa, through the leadership of
the UNDP in South Africa, in collaboration
PATHWAYS
with other UN agencies, commissioned
this report.
Over the past century, five other
outbreaks have raised the same level
This report presents the findings of two
of concern and global mobilisation as
studies: (1) microeconomic analysis of
COVID-19 in terms of speed, spread,
the impact of COVID-19 on households in
and severity of the disease. The five
South Africa based on poverty dynamics;
outbreaks are respectively, the Spanish
and (2) a macro-micro simulation using a
flu, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
(SARS), Swine flu, the Ebola outbreak,
model based on the Social Accounting
and the Human Immunodeficiency
Matrix and nationally representative
Virus infection and Acquired Immune
household survey data of the South
Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS)
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 31pandemic. The Spanish flu, also known of people had to be quarantined. Large
as the 1918 influenza pandemic, infected numbers of displaced persons were
500 million people (one-quarter of the reported after the disease spread rapidly
world’s population), between January during the second half of 2014 (ACAPS,
1918 and December 1920. The disease 2014). Apart from Guinea, Liberia, and
caused by the H1N1 influenza virus is so Sierra Leone, seven other countries in
far the deadliest amongst influenzas in West Africa, Europe, and North America
human history, causing about 1.1 million reported at least one case of Ebola. In
deaths globally in 1957, alone.4 Young 2018, about 37.9 million were living with
adults aged between 15 and 44 years HIV/AIDS, with a death toll of 770,000
were disproportionally overrepresented (UNAIDS, 2019). According to \ UNAIDS,
among the fatalities, in contrast to most the HIV pandemic killed 32 million people
influenza outbreaks that kill the very worldwide between 1980 and 2018.
young and elderly. Between 2002 and
2004, the SARS outbreak infected 8 The empirical evidence on the long-term
096 persons and killed 774 around the economic impacts of disease outbreaks
world. The epidemic started in November is inconclusive, but sizeable economic
2002 in China and spread across 29 impacts are more likely to happen in the
countries and territories worldwide. The short term.
SARS outbreak was caused by the SARS-
CoV strain, close to the SARS-CoV2 virus The long-term impact of epidemics can
strain that caused the 2019 Coronavirus be negative or positive, depending on
Disease (COVID-19). With a 9.5 percent the flexibility and resilience of economies
global mortality rate, the SARS outbreak to the health shocks. Brainerd and Siegler
caused severe socioeconomic (2002) find a robust positive impact of
disruptions, including the cancellation the 1918–1919 influenza epidemic on per
and postponement of several sporting capita income growth over the 1920s
and cultural events in affected countries. across the United States. However, Bloom
A second pandemic involving the H1N1 and Mahal (1997a) find no significant
influenza virus (albeit a new strain) hit the impact of the epidemic on output and
world between January 2009 and August income in England, France, and India.
2010, infecting 700 million to 1.4 billion Bloom and Mahal (1997b) use cross-
people around the world. The death toll country data and see little impact of AIDS
was estimated between 18 000 and 284 on economic growth. In contrast, Haacker
000, a similar level of fatalities annually (2002) finds significant adverse effects of
observed from the seasonal flu, according AIDS on growth and per capita income.
to the World Health Organisation (WHO). Bloom and Canning (2006) argue that the
sizeable economic impacts of epidemics
Between December 2013 and June 2016, are more likely to happen in the short term.
the Ebola virus infected 28 646 people Several studies estimated a short-term
and killed 11 323, mainly in Guinea, Liberia, output decline for Taiwan under the 2002
and Sierra Leone. The virus’s fatality rate of SARS outbreak (Wu et al., 2003; Wu et al.,
39.5 percent created severe disruptions 2003; Chou et al., 2003; Hsu et al., 2004).
in West Africa as hundreds of thousands Fofana et al. (2015) and the World Bank
4 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pandemic-timeline-1930-and-beyond.htm.
32 UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19(2014) projected the negative short-term capital, as measured by the supply of
economic impact of the Ebola outbreak in experienced workers. The human capital
Guinea. The latter also estimated a cut in impact can affect girls and young women
GDP growth for Liberia and Sierra Leone disproportionately, especially in cases
in 2014 due to the Ebola outbreak.5 where competition for jobs increases and
high-risk employment is the only available
Non-private medical cost increases and work. Influenza differs from AIDS in
labour productivity declines are the main the period of illness, which has severe
direct costs related to the COVID-19 implications for the way the disease affects
outbreak. the economy. In other words, flu claims
victims within days of infection, while
Traditionally, the economic cost of AIDS is associated with a long period of
health outbreaks is studied based on illness, reducing productivity, which in turn
an accounting approach. This approach affects the economy differently (Brainerd
consists of aggregating the medical and Siegler, 2002). While epidemics
costs borne by both private and non- like influenza and AIDS primarily affect
private entities during, and in some cases, prime-age adults (Brainerd and Siegler,
after the disease. Non-private budget 2002); the COVID-19 pandemic seems
reallocation to medical expenses would so far to have a higher fatality rate for
negatively affect discretionary expenses elderly people and those with underlying
in the short run, such as investments, with health conditions (WHO, 2020). Logically,
long-run economy-wide consequences. given that most older adults are out of
Other studies (e.g. Sachs and Malaney, the labour market, the labour supply
2002) have included the incomes shock of COVID-19 would have been
forgone due to the disease-related expected to be less critical compared to
morbidity and mortality in the estimation influenza and AIDS. However, given the
of the costs of disease. Forgone income rate of transmission of COVID-19 and the
is estimated by the value of lost workdays evolving threat to all ages, labour supply
and the capitalised value of future lifetime shocks can be low to medium.
earnings in the case of mortality related
to the disease. These costs are the direct Health outbreaks also affect labour
costs of the health outbreak. productivity by restricting workers’
ability to move to the places where they
Other direct costs of epidemics on the would be the most productive. Indeed,
broader economy are impacts on labour epidemics affect the mobility of labour
supply and labour productivity. Brainerd within a country and across countries,
and Siegler (2002) investigate the impact and mobility limitations can be a vital
of changes in the population and labour transmission channel to the economy
force stock due to the influenza epidemic through labour productivity impact.
in 1918 and 1919. Haacker (2002) Disease shocks may increase real wages
argues that AIDS affects the economy because of a reduction in the size of the
and per capita income in Southern working population. This is confirmed by
African countries mainly through human the short-term increase in wages due to
5 Fofana et al. (2015) estimated a 0.9 percent decline in output in annual average due to the Ebola outbreak in Guinea. The World
Bank (2014) report projected a decline in GDP growth perspective by 2.1 percentage points for Guinea (from 4.5 to 2.4 percent),
by 3.4 percentage points for Liberia (from 5.9 to 2.5 percent) and 3.3 percentage points for Sierra Leone (from 11.3 to 8.0 percent).
Guinea’s GDP growth stagnated at 3.9percent, 3.7 percent and 3.8 percent in 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively. Liberia’s GDP
dropped from 8.8 percent, to 0.7percent and 0.0percent in 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively. Sierra Leone’s GDP drop from 20.7
percent to 4.6 percent to -20.5 percent in 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively. Estimates from Fofana et al. (2015) and the World Bank
(2014) did not include the national and international responses to contain the epidemic and mitigating its adverse economic effects.
UN Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Covid-19 33You can also read
