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Monthly Overview | December 2020
December 2020
April 2020
IDBI Capital Market & Securities Ltd. | Retail Research www.idbidirect.in | 1
Monthly Overview | December 2020
November was a very strong month as Nifty continued to perform strongly from where it closed in previous month, as it
closed November in green with a gain of 11.39%. Though trend as turned positive but it would be better to avoid going
aggressive long and use dips to create a long position in Quality stocks. APLL-SUMICHEM-DHANUKA- VBL-DRREDDY-
NESTLE--BAYERCORP-TATACHEM-PETRONET-VOLTAS-JCHAC- BHARTIARTL- PGHH- HAVELLS -CDSL-SUPREMEIND –
LTTS- KOTAKBANK-ICICIBANK-HDFCBANK are few good quality stocks.
Nifty 50 - Overview
Source: IRIS+
Nifty Outlook
After a strong October month, November month was even better as it outperformed previous month and closed in green
with a handsome gain of 11.39%. FII were very aggressive in their buying throughout the month as they continued their
buying. FIIs net inflow was of Rs.65317.13 crores in the domestic equities market compared to the previous month where
they were net buyers of Rs. 14537.40 crores. While on the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued to
remain net seller even after their selling in the previous month. DII were net seller of Rs. 48319.17 crores compared to the
previous month where they were a net seller of Rs. 17318.44crores in October.
Last month Nifty saw a strong up move as it closed above its previous all-time high closing. On the Monthly chart, the trend
is positive or bullish and it is into uncharted territory as it even touched 13000 landmark figure and went even higher
though later on, it corrected from those levels and closed little below 13000 levels. Looking at the overall formation we
might see some sideways consolidation or correction but the overall trend is positive and correction should be used to
create long positions. And unless and until 200 days SMA is not breached trend will continue to remains positive. For the
coming month on the higher side, we expect the Nifty to face a hurdle at 13500 and 13800 range which would be a crucial
resistance level while support would be at 11700 and 11400. We believe try not to be aggressive at this juncture and use
dips to create long positions. Also, Be with sectors which are showing Strength and try to exit from weak sectors .
Nifty Outlook: Monthly Closing 12969
Monthly High 13146
Short-term Positive Monthly Low 11557
Monthly Bias: Positive
Medium-term Positive Support Level: 11700 11400
Resistance Level: 13500 13800
Long-term Positive Moving Average
Period SMA
50 Days 12004
200 Days 10753
200 Weeks 10722
Source: IRISI+
IDBI Capital Market & Securities Ltd. | Retail Research www.idbidirect.in | 2
Monthly Overview | December 2020
Nifty Bank - Overview
Source: IRISI+
Monthly Closing 29609 Sector Outperformers
INDUSINBK
Monthly High : 30198 Monthly Low : 24121 SBIN
Sector Bias: NEUTRAL Sector Underperformers
IDFCFIRSTB
Support Level: 26850 25800
ICICIBANK
Resistance Level: 31650 32620
Nifty Bank had one of the best month in recent times as it closed November in green with a gain of 23.88% compared to the
previous month where it closed in green with a gain of 11.42%. If we dissect Bankings stocks Nifty PSU Bank closed with again
of 23.62% on the other hand, Private Player outperformed Psu counterparts as they were up by 24.25% as they among the top
sectorial outperformance. PSU counterparts tried to recover from lower levels and followed Private counterparts but they
were still short of them as both of them closed in green with massive gains. Bank Nifty which was pain point area a few
months back as not taken up the leadership and is not outperforming Nifty with handsome gains.
On the Monthly chart, BankNifty had formed big bullish candlestick formation as it didn't scum to selling pressure, In fact, it
reversed all the negativity and became one of the top-performing sectors. It also changed the trend as it is now trading above
50,100 and 200day SMA compared to a few months back where it was trading below this average. For the coming month,
26850 and 25800 would be strong support zone as it was resistance zone which now has turned to support while on the
upside, resistance would be at 31650 and 32620. Kindly Note: BankNifty had seen severe underperformance compared to
broader indices for some time though it has changed, it would still be prudent to avoid small size banking stock at least at the
current juncture as it faces many headwinds. Investors can accumulate quality value picks systematically but be selective and
try to stick with market leaders HDFCBANK –KOTAK BANK- ICICIBANK.
.
IDBI Capital Market & Securities Ltd. | Retail Research www.idbidirect.in | 3Monthly Overview | December 2020
Event Calendar
Date Event Period Survey Prior
1-Dec-20 Markit India PMI Mfg Nov -- 58.9
3-Dec-20 Markit India PMI Composite Nov -- 58
3-Dec-20 Markit India PMI Services Nov -- 54.1
14-Dec -20 CPI YoY Nov -- 7.61%
14-Dec -20 Wholesale Prices YoY Nov --
1.48%
15-Dec-20 Export YoY Nov -- -5.10%
15-Dec -20 Import YoY Nov -- -11.50%
31-Dec-20 Fiscal Deficit INR Crore Nov -- 39161
31-Dec-20 Eight Infrastructure Industries Nov -- -2.50%
IDBI Capital Market & Securities Ltd. | Retail Research www.idbidirect.in | 4Monthly Overview | December 2020 Research Desk Equity Research Head A. K. Prabhakar ak.prabhakar@idbicapital.com Research Analyst Siddhesh Jain siddhesh.jain@idbicapital.com IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd. (A wholly owned subsidiary of IDBI Bank Ltd.) Retail Research Desk Regd. Office: 6th Floor, IDBI Tower, WTC Complex, Cuffe Parade, Colaba, Mumbai – 400 005. Phones: (91-22) 2217 1700/ 01; Email: info@idbidirect.in SEBI Registration: BSE & NSE (Cash & FO) – INZ000007237, NSDL – IN-DP-NSDL-12-96, Research – INH000002459, CIN – U65990MH1993GOI075578 Compliance Officer: Christina D’souza; Email: compliance@idbicapital.com; Telephone: (91-22) 2217 1700 Disclaimer This report has been published by IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “IDBI Capital”) for private circulation. This report should not be reproduced or copied or made available to others. 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Monthly Overview | December 2020 Analyst Disclosures I, Siddhesh Jain, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject companies and / or securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Principally, I will be responsible for the preparation of this research report and have taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations herein. Other Disclosure IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “IDBI Capital”) was incorporated in the year 1993 under Companies Act, 1956 and is a wholly owned subsidiary of IDBI Bank Limited. 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