Decommissioning conundrum - Many investors regard decommissioning as a 'wild card' - OPEC
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Also in this issue:
Transitioning to a low Oil and gas prospects for Supply chain moves to
carbon future 2017 and beyond improve bottom line
The magazine for oil and gas professionals February 2017
Decommissioning
conundrum
Many investors regard decommissioning
as a 'wild card'
Magazine of the
Hosted by:
International Petroleum Week
21 - 23 February 2017
Speakers include:
H.E. Dr Mohammed Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Igor Sechin
Bin Saleh Al-Sada Secretary General, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the
Minister of Energy & Industry, OPEC Management Board, Deputy Chairman
State of Qatar of the Board of Directors, Rosneft
Saif Humaid Al Falasi FEI Gretchen Watkins Tim Dodson
Group Chief Executive Officer, CEO, Executive Vice President,
Emirates National Maersk Oil Exploration,
Oil Company (ENOC) Statoil
Dr. Hoesung Lee Robert S. Franklin Hendrik Gordenker
Chair, President, Chairman,
Intergovernmental Panel ExxonMobil Gas & Power JERA
on Climate Change (IPCC) Marketing Company
Patricia Espinosa Julia Ross Andy Brown
Executive Secretary, Head of Corporate Finance Upstream Director,
UNFCCC & Marketing, Shell
Tullow Oil
View the latest programme and speaker line-up at: www.ipweek.co.uk
IP Week Dinner Guest of Honour and Speaker:
23 February 2017 PATRICK POUYANNÉ
Chairman and CEO, Total
In partnership with: IP Week Gold Sponsors:
VOLUME 71 | NUMBER 840
Contents
Editor
Kim Jackson MEI
t: +44 (0)20 7467 7118 IN THIS ISSUE…
Also in this issue:
Front cover:
Transitioning to a low Oil and gas prospects for Supply chain moves to
carbon future 2017 and beyond improve bottom line
e: kjackson@energyinst.org
The magazine for oil and gas professionals Fairfield Energy
Deputy Editor
February 2017
Brian Davis is focusing This month’s issue of Petroleum Review
t: +44 (0)20 7467 7142 attention on begins with a look at how the international
e: bdavis@energyinst.org the decommiss- oil and gas sector is looking to transition to
Editorial Assistant ioning of a low carbon future. We assess how central
Anna Cole-Bailey its North Sea banks are positioning themselves to regulate
t: +44 (0)20 7467 7117 Dunlin field
e:acole-bailey@energyinst.org the process, and highlight a call for fossil fuel
companies to disclose potential greenhouse
Editorial enquiries gas emissions from their reserves as
t: +44 (0)20 7467 7118 Decommissioning investors look to more accurately determine
e: petrev@energyinst.org conundrum Source: Fairfield possible downside risks. We also review
General enquiries Many investors regard decommissioning
as a 'wild card'
Energy some of the strategies, innovations and
t: +44 (0)20 7467 7100 Magazine of the
e: info@energyinst.org technologies being adopted by key players in
the drive to decarbonise.
Advertising
For advertising opportunities Ahead of his keynote presentation at
IP Week on 21–23 February 2017, OPEC
Update & regulars
please contact: Luigi Fontana
EI Business Development Manager Secretary General Mohammed Sanusi
t: +44 (0)20 7467 7182 Barkindo provides his view of the role of
e: lfontana@energyinst.org
OPEC and fossil fuels in the future energy
Magazine subscriptions 2 Perspective mix.
Chris Baker MEI
We also look at the impact of shifting
t: +44 (0)20 7467 7114 3 Upstream
e: cbaker@energyinst.org oil prices on the markets, and outline some
of the reasons producers can begin to be
Membership 5 Downstream hopeful of better times ahead. That said,
For all membership enquiries please
contact e: membership@energyinst.org 7 Industry decommissioning is seen to remain a ‘vexing’
or visit www.energyinst.org issue despite a partial recovery in the oil
10 Energy Institute price.
Meanwhile, make sure to visit our website
to view two online features looking at the
role of gas in decarbonising Europe’s energy
Abbreviations
markets, and how sources of financing will
The following are used throughout
Petroleum Review: help electricity network companies evolve to
embrace new and disruptive technologies.
mn = million (106) t/d = tonnes/day
bn = billion (109)
tn = trillion (1012)
kW = kilowatts (103)
MW = megawatts (106)
Features Kim Jackson, Editor
cf = cubic feet GW = gigawatts (109)
cm = cubic metres kWh = kilowatt hour
b/d = barrels/day km = kilometre Low carbon future Finance and investment
boe = b arrels of oil sq km = square
equivalent kilometres
12 Systemic risk or greenwashing? 28 Reasons to be cheerful
t/y = tonnes/year Maria Kielmas Maarten van Wesemael
No single letter abbreviations are used.
Abbreviations go together 14 What’s at risk? 30 The decommissioning conundrum
eg 100mn cf/y = 100 million cubic feet
per year. Stephen Russell Nick Cottam
16 Big Oil plans for a low carbon future Supply chain management
Printed by Geerings Print Ltd Brian Davis 32 Oil price slump boosts logistics
Magazine of the innovation
18 On the radar Nnamdi Anyadike
Nova Garabetian
EI Technical
61 New Cavendish Chief Executive: IP Week interview
Street, London Louise Kingham OBE FEI 34 Diesel filterability issues
W1G 7AR, UK 20 OPEC and the future Ian Mylrea
Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo
Terms of control: Petroleum Review is circulated
free of charge to all paid-up members of the
Energy Institute. To libraries, organisations and
persons not in membership, it is available on a
Market prospects See also online...
single subscription of £310 for 11 issues in the UK
and £480 for overseas subscribers. Single issue £30
22 Anticipating sea change Future of gas in decarbonising
(UK), £45 (overseas). Agency Commission – 10%. Adrian Del Maestro and Craig Stevens European energy markets
ISSN 0020-3076.
Energy Institute Registered Charity No.1097899,
Professor Jonathan Stern
61 New Cavendish Street, London W1G 7AR, UK. 25 Lower pressure on the Gulf
Visit bit.ly/2k4Vte4
© Energy Institute 2017. The Energy Institute as a Karim Nassif
body is not responsible either for the statements
made or opinions expressed in these pages. Unless
specifically stated, the magazine is not a partner
The role of capital in facing
with, agent of, or in any other way affiliated with
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disruption
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Perspective
PERSPECTIVE
As much about oil as solar
N
othing symbolised the planet will be among those who in which objective facts are less
shifting tectonic plates will drive the development of the influential in shaping public
in energy technology alternatives we now need for our opinion than appeals to emotion
more in 2016 than CEO Elon Musk future low carbon existence. and personal belief’.
unveiling Tesla’s solar roof tiles This reference to global politics
on the former set of TV show Reach, influence and relevance might seem a million miles away
Desperate Housewives. This context puts a premium on an from our day jobs, but we have
The cost of manufacturing one organisation that has international seen empirical evidence distorted
watt of solar PV cell capacity fell reach and influence in the policy and proven expertise called into
from a staggering $77 in 1977 to making arena and expertise and question closer to our own field.
an equally staggering 36 cents in knowledge that spans the entirety Witness the alarmism that has
2014 (according to Bloomberg New of the energy system – what the surrounded technologies such as
Louise Kingham OBE Energy Finance). Indeed, costs are IEA describes as the ‘trade-offs, co- onshore wind, shale gas, deepsea
FEI, Chief Executive, forecast to fall even further, benefits and competing priorities oil production, as well as attempts
Energy Institute between 40% to 70% by 2040 (IEA that need to be untangled across to discredit climate science.
World Energy Outlook, 2016). the energy sector’. This is why I believe we are
Factor in a similarly rapid drop The Energy Institute intends to vital, as individuals and, through
in the cost of storage and it is easy position itself as that organisation, the Energy Institute, as a
to see why smart innovators are with a new strategic programme professional and learned group
piling into the territory, putting over the next three years aimed at right across the energy sector. In
integrated, zero carbon lifestyle growing internationally, engaging this age of 140 character
solutions into a price bracket actively in the policy debate and communication via Twitter, we
accessible to mainstream supporting the low carbon must have pride and confidence in
consumers. transition. ourselves, of what we know, what
But tectonic plates move slowly; More specifically, by 2020 we we do and how we do it.
this is no overnight transition. The will aim to have expanded our The public deserves an energy
IEA’s World Energy Outlook is clear international reach into four debate that is evidence based, not
– even in a post-Paris world aiming regions we are currently headline grabbing. We must do
to limit global average temperature developing and a further four new what we can to enlighten the
rises to 2oC, and despite the current ones globally to support hundreds, debate, to replace opacity with
challenging oil price – fossil fuels if not thousands, of energy clarity and to call out opinion
will continue to be ‘a bedrock of professionals we don’t currently where it is masquerading as fact.
the global energy system for many reach. This underscores the
decades to come’. We will be a recognised body of importance of the values newly
Some 60% of the investment expertise valued for its objectivity adopted by all of us at the Energy
needed globally in energy by 2040 and ability to be a safe, honest Institute, which will come to the
will still be in fossil fuels. Gas place to ask – and look to answer fore in delivering our strategy. We
consumption in particular is – the difficult questions. We will will act with integrity, objectivity
projected to increase, with also support members and and professionalism; our work will
investment in LNG leading to the partners to identify the skills, be forward-thinking and creative;
creation of a global market. knowledge and good practice we will seek to demonstrate our
Consumption of oil in freight, needed to make the low carbon knowledge and competence; and
aviation and petrochemicals, transition and address these issues we will do so collaboratively.
where there are as yet few in those sectors where we don’t At the EI Awards last November
alternatives, will also continue currently work within the next President, Jim Skea CBE FEI said:
to grow. three years. ‘Energy fuels human progress and
All of this will be founded on is delivered by highly skilled
The journey ahead the knowledge, skills and good people whose dedication helps to
So, contrary to the often polarised practice on which professionals develop and sustain society, often
public debate around energy, across the industry already rely. We with little visibility to those that
the co-existence of high and will continue to deliver on familiar, benefit.’ I believe it is our job to
low carbon is inevitable for the valued work such as the Energy improve that visibility and
foreseeable future. While Paris Barometer, the Energy Systems celebrate the work energy
sealed the discussion about the conference and our annual awards professionals do, now so more than
destination, the journey there is as and other key events – but it will ever. ●
much about using hydrocarbons also mean doing things differently,
wisely and efficiently as it is about including a significant shift to
renewables, nuclear and disruptive online learning.
technologies.
Furthermore, many of the Strong values in a ‘post-truth’ world
people whose skills and ingenuity The Oxford Dictionaries’ word of
have successfully harnessed oil and the year in 2016 was ‘post-truth’,
gas from some of the most an adjective defined as ‘relating
inhospitable environments on the to or denoting circumstances
2 Petroleum Review | February 2017
UpstreamUpdate
Sudanese oil agreement renewed
Landlocked South Sudan has renewed a contract allowing it to continue using a Sudanese pipeline to export oil
S
udan and South Sudan
recently agreed to extend
an oil deal originally
negotiated in 2012, which will
enable landlocked and troubled
South Sudan to continue utilising
a Sudanese pipeline to export
its crude, reports Andrew Green.
‘We have agreed to extend it for
another three years,’ Sudan’s
Petroleum and Gas Minister
Mohamed Zayed Awad told local
news agencies after signing
the deal.
Under the renewed deal, Juba
(the capital of South Sudan) has to
pay to use the pipeline, in addition
to paying transit and
transportation fees – the original
agreement included a $3bn
Source: Isaac Billy / UN Photo
transitional financial arrangement
(TFA). In total, Juba originally paid Sudan President Omar al-Bashir (left) arrives in South Sudan ahead of that country’s official independence in
Khartoum (the capital of Sudan) 2011 and greets his southern counterpart, Salva Kiir (right)
about $25/b. As global crude oil
prices fell, Khartoum agreed in forced cuts from 220,000 b/d to an have a significant impact on
early 2016 to float that fee. estimated 130,000 b/d. global markets.
Details on the renewed ‘In the last two years, we’ve Oil has been a flashpoint since
arrangement are still scarce, seen repeated statements from the South Sudan seceded from Sudan
including how much money South South Sudanese government that in 2011. It took with it 75% of the
Sudan still owes toward the TFA. production will increase again,’ former united Sudan’s oil reserves,
South Sudan’s only official says Luke Patey, a senior researcher although it had no means of export
statement came after the signing, at the Danish Institute for aside from the pipeline through
when its Petroleum Minister International Studies, who the successor state of (northern)
Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth pledged authored a book on the oil industry Sudan. The two states were
cooperation with Khartoum. in the two countries. ‘I’m not initially unable to reach an
The deal comes as South Sudan, confident that it will actually occur agreement and in January 2012
mired in a three-year internal civil this year.’ If production figures South Sudan abruptly stopped oil
conflict, has struggled to maintain remain low, Patey does not expect production. The September 2012
production levels. The fighting has South Sudan’s oil to agreement ended that stalemate.
Exploration and production
OGA publishes EOR delivery programme
The UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) line with their field development economics – ensuring the
recently published its Enhanced plans (FDPs). economics of marginal EOR
Oil Recovery (EOR) Delivery projects do not stifle investment.
• Maximising economic recovery
Programme, which expands on its
(MER) for future EOR projects • Advance next EOR and support
earlier announced EOR Strategy.
– ensuring EOR opportunities CO2 storage – ensuring that,
According to the OGA, there is still
are identified early enough in while prioritising polymer and
a ‘significant prize’ to be gained by
the field life cycle to maximise low salinity EOR, other EOR
increasing recovery from existing
economic recovery. technologies are not neglected.
UKCS oil fields. However, the average
recovery factor is projected to be • Workgroups and industry • Knowledge management
around 46% at the end of field life. partnerships – ensuring that EOR – ensuring EOR knowledge is
Through advocating and facilitating technology and implementation widely available, improving
the use of tertiary EOR techniques, lessons are shared. awareness and knowledge
OGA seeks to support the extraction transfer.
• Technology development and
of up to 250mn boe.
deployment – gaining additional • Communication and stakeholder
The Delivery Programme
buy-in from EOR technology plans – ensuring investment in
describes eight areas of focus:
providers and operators to EOR projects is not limited by
• Existing EOR projects – ensuring develop and then deploy lack of senior industry leadership
current polymer and low salinity economical EOR technology. buy-in to the deployment of EOR
EOR projects are progressed in technology.
• Creating value – improving
Petroleum Review | February 2017 3
UpstreamUpdate
Exploration and production
Cypriot well could be transformative for Eastern Med
Driven by the success of Eni’s economics.’ potentially commercially viable.
major Zohr feld gas discovery The Zohr Field is one of the The competitive landscape in the
offshore Egypt in 2015, companies largest conventional gas discoveries region has already begun to change
are rethinking the Eastern of recent years. It has in-place in anticipation of the potential. In
Mediterranean region’s gas resources of 32tn cf of dry gas, November 2016, BP purchased a
potential, according to new analysis with possible recoverable resources 10% equity stake in the Shorouk
from IHS Markit. Furthermore, of about 20tn cf, according to offshore block (including Zohr) from
Total’s announcement that it will Eni statements. Phase 1 of the Eni, with the option to acquire a
drill a 2017 exploration well in its field development is due to come further 5% stake.
deepwater block 11 located offshore onstream in 2017. Meanwhile, the December 2016
Cyprus indicates the growing ‘The existence of a carbonate announcement of results from
interest in the wider region. reef play, which Zohr has proven Cyprus’s Third Offshore Licensing
Indeed, the market analyst to be, is very different from the Round confirmed the interest of
company believes that Total’s turbidite sand-play discoveries in established and new companies in
Cypriot well will be one of the ‘most the Israeli Levantine Basin and the the Eastern Mediterranean region’s
critical wells drilled globally in 2017 Egyptian Nile Delta Basin,’ Bliss growing gas potential. Eni extended
for the E&P industry, especially given said. ‘If the Zohr carbonate play its key role in the region with its
the slowdown in exploration drilling extends northward into Total’s award of offshore Cyprus
worldwide’. block 11, then the potential for block 6 (north-west of block 11) with
Total’s offshore Cyprus block a significant discovery in block partner Total, as well as offshore
11 is located to the north of Zohr’s 11 exists, resulting in profound block 8 (north-east of block 11).
Egyptian Shorouk offshore block, implications for the region. A major ExxonMobil won the bid for offshore
which, according to Graham Bliss, find would provide competition block 10 (which Total had previously
Senior Director of Plays and Basins with offshore Israel gas fields to relinquished). The ranks of larger
Research, IHS Markit, is the first fulfill Egypt’s rising gas demand, and companies in the region have now
time in the region that a carbonate, within the complex jigsaw puzzle swelled to include Total, ExxonMobil
rather than a sand, reservoir has of gas supply and demand in the and Rosneft, in addition to the
been targeted. ‘The carbonate Eastern Mediterranean, could even established players Eni, Shell and BP.
reservoir that comprises Zohr is potentially lead to gas exports to While gas is the primary target
of particularly high quality,’ he Turkey,’ for the Total Cyprus block 11, the
said. ‘As such, it will likely enable IHS Markit research has also IHS Markit analysis suggests there
development using a minimum concluded that direct pipeline is some potential for a deeper, but
number of wells and, therefore, exports from the Eastern unproven, Cretaceous target, which
reduce costs and enhance project Mediterranean to Greece are could have oil potential.
IN BRIEF
ADNOC has awarded BP a 10% 18 Nigerian companies secured in Uganda, with Tullow retaining
interest in Abu Dhabi’s onshore oil contracts, 11 traders, five foreign a 11.76% interest in the upstream
concession operated by ADCO, the refiners, three government-backed project and pipeline, which
Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore companies and two trading units would reduce to 10% when the
Petroleum Operations. As part of of NNPC. All of the contracts are government of Uganda formally
BP’s interest in the concession, for 32,000 b/d, apart from NNPC’s exercises its right to back-in. The
it will become asset leader for Panama-registered Duke Oil unit, Lake Albert project is expected to
the Bab integrated asset group which won a deal for 90,000 b/d. achieve around 230,000 b/d when it
within ADCO. It is hoped the new Meanwhile, NNPC has reiterated its reaches plateau.
partnership model will bring intent to proceed with two new LNG
technology, expertise and financing projects in Nigeria – Brass LNG and The Veolia and Peterson partnership
aimed at maximising the value of OK LNG – describing both as ‘priority has been awarded two platform
the resources and supporting the ventures’. decommissioning contracts for
transfer of knowledge. BP joins recycling at its facility in Great
Total of France, Inpex Corporation Ashurst is advising Tullow Oil on a Yarmouth (see pic below). With an
of Japan, and GS Energy of South substantial farm-down of its assets aim of reaching 96% recycling rates
Korea as shareholders of ADCO and in Uganda to Total E&P Uganda. the work to recycle materials and
the onshore concession, who each Under the terms of the agreement, assets is expected to begin in spring
own a 10%, 5% and 3% interest Total will acquire 21.57% in the 2017 when the platforms arrive
respectively. ADNOC will continue to Lake Albert development project onshore.
explore opportunities with potential
partners for the remaining 12%
stake of the 40% earmarked for
foreign partners.
Nigerian National Petroleum
Corporation (NNPC) has awarded
contracts to 39 companies for
crude oil offtake in 2017–2018.
According to Global Energy Research, Source: Veolia
4 Petroleum Review | February 2017
DownstreamUpdate
Ghanaian power generation shift
Investment support from the World Bank Group is to help Ghana transition to a low carbon future
I
FC and MIGA, members of
the World Bank Group, have
committed $517mn in debt
and guarantees to support Ghana’s
Sankofa gas project, an integrated
offshore oil and natural gas project
that will provide a source of
reliable, affordable energy in the
West African country. The project
will fuel up to 1,000 MW of power
generation, helping Ghana meet its
growing energy needs and displace
oil-fired power generation with a
clean-burning alternative.
The $7.7 bn Sankofa project will
be developed by Vitol Ghana and
Eni Ghana, in partnership with
Ghana’s National Petroleum
Corporation. IFC has committed a
loan of $235mn to Vitol Ghana and
is arranging another $65mn in
Source: Vitol
debt from the Managed Co-Lending
Portfolio Program, a loan- The Sankofa project involves the development of multiple
syndications initiative that enables subsea wells tied back to a FPSO which will be connected to
third-party investors to participate shore via a gas export line
passively in IFC’s senior loan
portfolio. The IFC financing is part the road each year or planting emissions and provide a clean
of a $1.35bn loan facility provided 152mn trees. source of power for generations.’
by commercial banks, including Sankofa is expected to generate MIGA Executive Vice President and
HSBC, Société Générale, ING, $2.3bn in revenues for Ghana’s CEO Keiko Honda, added: ‘The
Standard Chartered Bank, UKEF, government and provide a stable, natural gas from the Sankofa
among others. MIGA has long-term source of domestic gas project underpins the nation’s
committed these commercial that will help solve the country’s transition to a low carbon future.’
lenders with up to $217mn in chronic gas supply constraints. With this announcement, IFC
political risk guarantees. Phlippe Le Houérou, IFC and MIGA support brings World
Ghana’s government has Executive Vice President and CEO, Bank Group financing for the
identified the Sankofa project as a said: ‘Ghana will require significant Sankofa gas project to
transformational project that will power generation and approximately $1.217bn, building
help the country achieve its COP21 infrastructure to meet the growing on a $700mn guarantee package
commitments for climate needs of its young and expanding from the World Bank announced
mitigation. Once it starts to population. This project last year that will help Ghana’s
produce gas in early 2018, the demonstrates that private capital National Petroleum Corporation
project is expected to reduce can be mobilised on a large scale to ensure timely payments for gas
carbon emissions in Ghana by an contribute to the country’s energy purchases and that has enabled the
estimated 1.6mn t/y as gas security. Developing Ghana’s project to secure financing from its
displaces heavy fuel oil – domestic natural gas resources will private sponsors.
equivalent to taking 1.2mn cars off help the country reduce carbon
Fuel retailing
BP and Woolworths agree fuel retail partnership
BP is to establish a strategic of its kind for Australia’s growing programme will expand the Metro
partnership with Woolworths, one convenience sector, bringing at BP format across more than
of Australia’s largest supermarket together BP’s quality fuels, 200 sites.
retailers. The deal includes BP Woolworths’ Everyday Rewards, fuel The acquisition of Woolworths’
acquiring, rebranding and operating discount dockets and a new range of fuel and convenience sites will add
Woolworths’ existing 527 fuel and high-quality, ready-to-eat and take to BP’s existing network of 350
convenience sites, as well as an home fresh food products, reports company-owned retail sites across
additional 16 sites currently under the oil major. Australia. BP also supplies fuel and
construction, across Australia for a Initially, the partners will launch branding to a further 1,000 sites
total consideration of $1.3bn. a Metro at BP pilot programmes owned by independent business
A new fuel and convenience across 16 BP fuel and convenience partners.
offer, Metro at BP, will be the first sites and phase two of the
Petroleum Review | February 2017 5
DownstreamUpdate
Gas distribution
Ukraine lifts regulatory restrictions on gas exports
Ukraine has amended legislation restricted by regulatory obstacles to pay the tariffs for using Ukraine’s
that previously restricted exports such as licensing (issued by the gas system exit capacity at those
of natural gas and anthracite. Ministry of Economy) and quotas interconnectors. Such tariffs are
‘This represents an unexpected (such quotas being determined on calculated and approved by the
move for a country which is a net the basis of the Annual Gas Balance, Ukrainian energy regulator (the
importer of natural gas,’ comments usually equal to zero), explains CMS. National Commission on the State
international law firm CMS. ‘If As a result, Ukrainian gas producing Regulation of the Energy and Public
it achieves its desired aims the companies (both state-owned and Utilities Sector) for each particular
Resolution will mark a significant private ones) have not exported exit point in $/1,000 cm. ‘At present,
step towards the liberalisation of natural gas from Ukraine since 2011. the relevant exit tariffs are only
the natural gas market in Ukraine, It should be noted, however, established for a number of exit
enabling the flow of natural gas that due to Ukraine’s recent switch points and vary from $16.74 to
from European Union countries with to a system of tariffs for entry/ $32.8/1,000 cm depending on the
which Ukraine has interconnectors, exit capacity at Ukraine’s gas exit point in question,’ notes CMS.
and also from Ukraine to them.’ interconnectors with neighbouring
Since 2006, the export of gas of EU countries, exporters of natural
Ukrainian origin has been heavily gas from Ukraine are now required
IN BRIEF
BP and PTT have entered into a sales price changes also reflect seasonal time, a long-term brand licence
and purchase agreement under movements in international oil agreement has been renewed with
which BP will provide PTT with product prices, as diesel prices have Shell soVivo Energy will continue to
approximately 1mn t/y of LNG. responded to higher demand during operate under the Shell brand. Vivo
The term of the agreement is 20 the Northern Hemisphere winter. Energy, the company behind the
years. LNG supply will commence in As Brazilian law guarantees pricing Shell brand in Africa, was created
2017 and will be sourced from BP’s freedom in the market for fuels by Helios, Vitol and Shell in 2011
diverse portfolio of LNG, including and oil products, the refinery price when Shell divested its majority
the Freeport LNG project in the US. changes made by Petrobras may or share in its downstream operations
Commercial terms of the agreement may not be reflected in consumers’ in 14 African markets. Since then, its
have not been disclosed. end prices. This will depend on price shareholders have made significant
changes made by other players in investments in people and assets,
In line with the pricing policy the fuel chain, especially distributors expanding the retail network
announced by Petrobras in October and gas stations. If the adjustments from 1,300 to 1,700+ stations and
2016, the company raised the price made are fully passed on and no its presence to 16 countries. Vivo
of diesel sold at its refineries by 6.1% changes take place in the other Energy plans an additional $300mn
on average, in January 2017. The elements that make up the end price of investment over the next three
price of gasoline sold at its refineries for consumers, diesel prices could years.
remains unchanged. The decision increase by 3.8% or around R$0.12
is mainly due to the effect of the per litre on average, notes Petrobras. Energy UK recently reported that
continued, although modest, rise in overall in 2016, some 4,822,885
oil prices in international markets, Helios Investment Partners and UK consumers switched electricity
the strengthening of the Brazilian Vitol have agreed the acquisition supplier, an increase of 26%
real since the last price review, of Shell’s 20% shareholding in Vivo compared to 2015.
and adjustments to Petrobras’ Energy for $250mn. On completion
competitiveness in the domestic in 1H2017, Vivo will be owned 100%
gasoline and diesel markets. The by Vitol and Helios. At the same
EW banner.qxd:P33_MEMBANNER 19/1/17 14:12 Page 1
In next month’s Energy World:
• Storage and solar – a route to power system sustainabilty?
• Japan’s power liberalisation meets its big energy players
• Lessons learned on business energy efficiency
• The role of capital in facing disruption
Energy World is the monthly sister publication to Petroleum Review, covering
renewables, power generation and energy efficiency. As an EI member,
you can subscribe to Energy World for £45, saving up to £140.
For more information visit www.energyinst.org
6 Petroleum Review | February 2017
IndustryUpdate
Fossil fuels aren’t going away soon
Fossil fuels will provide nearly 80% of global energy demand in 2040, according to ExxonMobil’s latest Energy Outlook
G
lobal population growth of
nearly 2bn, a doubling of
worldwide economic output
and rapid expansion of the middle
class in emerging economies
are all expected to contribute to
energy demand growth of about
25% from 2015 to 2040, according
to ExxonMobil’s 2017 Outlook for
energy: A view to 2040.
Efficiency gains across
economies worldwide are expected
to play a significant role in limiting
the growth in energy needs. Energy
demand in member nations of the
Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development
(OECD) is likely to be flat to 2040,
while demand in non-OECD
nations is expected to increase 40%
as prosperity expands and access
to modern energy increases.
Growth in global energy
demand will be led by greater
electrification of the global
economy. Some 55% of the energy economy will improve from about • Oil will provide about one-third It will take all energy types
demand growth over the next 30 miles per gallon (m/g) to nearly of the world’s energy in 2040, to meet demand in 2040
50 m/g, reflecting significant – oil, natural gas and coal
quarter century will be tied to remaining the No. 1 source of are expected to account for
power generation needed to strides in efficiency of fuel, with growth driven by 77% of the energy mix at
support the increasingly digital conventional vehicles and a shift commercial transportation and this time
and plugged-in lives of society, in the fleet mix favouring hybrid chemicals demand. Average Source: ExxonMobil Energy
according to the company’s annual vehicles, the report shows. global fuel economy for new Outlook 2017
long-range supply-and-demand Global energy-related carbon light-duty vehicles is expected
energy forecast. dioxide (CO2) emissions are to improve by about two-
Average electricity use per expected to peak during the 2030s thirds.
household will rise about 30% and then gradually decline. This is
supported by an increasing shift to • Carbon intensity of the global
between 2015 and 2040. The share
less carbon-intensive energy for economy is likely to be reduced
of the world’s electricity generated
power generation and higher by 45% through 2040, reflecting
by coal is expected to fall to about
energy efficiency across all sectors. significant gains in the energy
30%, from approximately 40% in
Key findings of the ExxonMobil efficiency of economies
2015 as the use of lower-emission
report include: worldwide and a gradual
energy sources including natural
transition to lower carbon-
gas, nuclear and renewables
• From 2015 to 2040, global intensive energy types.
increases.
demand for energy is expected
‘As economies expand around • Global energy-related CO2
to increase by about 25% –
the world, energy demand will emissions are likely to peak
roughly equivalent to the total
increase as more people seek during the 2030s and begin to
energy used today in North
higher standards of living,’ said decline, even as global
America and Latin America.
William Colton, ExxonMobil’s Vice economic output doubles from
President of Corporate Strategic • In 2040, oil and natural gas are 2015 to 2040.
Planning. ‘Humanity’s dual expected to make up nearly
• North America, which for
challenge is to meet growing 60% of global supplies, while
decades had been an oil
energy demand while managing nuclear and renewables will be
importer, is likely to become a
the risk of climate change. Our approaching 25%.
significant net exporter by
Outlook for energy can help people
• Natural gas demand will 2025.
understand factors influencing
expand significantly,
future energy supply and demand • India is likely to surpass China
accounting for about 40% of
and inform industries and as the world’s most populous
the projected growth in global
governments as they consider nation by 2025. The two
energy demand.
future energy policy.’ countries are expected to
With the global middle class • Nuclear and renewable energy account for about 45% of the
more than doubling to about 5bn, sources – including bio-energy, growth in global energy
the number of cars, sport-utility hydro, geothermal, wind, and demand.
vehicles and pickups are expected solar – are also likely to
to increase about 80% to 1.8bn account for 40% of the growth
vehicles by 2040. During the same in global energy demand to
period, average new car fuel 2040.
Petroleum Review | February 2017 7
IndustryUpdate
Finance and investment
France launches more than €20bn in green bonds
France has announced it is launching in this area – even as noted climate
more than €20bn of green bonds, in change sceptic Donald Trump
a move that follows hot on the heels becomes US President.
of Poland, which became the first However, there are legal
country to do so as 2016 drew to a challenges and obstacles to
close, writes Robert Follie of law firm overcome if sovereign green bonds
Holman Fenwick Willan. are to take off and thrive. These
According to France’s debt challenges are mainly caused by
agency, the country will issue the a lack of common definition and
green bonds over two to three years, legal framework; for instance,
including 2017 – with an initial no monitoring mechanism is in
offer at the start of January raising place to ensure that the funds Source: Pixabay
at least €2.5bn. At the close of raised are actually used to finance
2016, the Polish government issued environmentally friendly projects.
€750mn of sovereign bonds. The French government has difficult to achieve. This may
Green bonds are distinctive in tried to address these issues and discourage investors from investing
that their proceeds are earmarked avoid ‘greenwashing’ criticisms as they perceive the bonds as being
for use in financing projects or by implementing two innovative less liquid than other assets.
initiatives that have environmental mechanisms: To tackle this issue, France
and climate benefits. Indeed, has developed the Transition
according to Bloomberg, French • an ex-ante control based on the Energétique et Ecologique pour
Finance Minister Michel Sapin intervention of an independent le Climat (TEEC) label. It comes
emphasised in early January 2017 rating agency (Vigeo Eiris) and in addition to the Green Bonds
that the government expected the the issuance of an annual report Principles (GBP) or the Climate
green bond market to promote by the French government on Bond Initiative (CBI), the two main
‘climate awareness by all actors, the allocations of the funds international voluntary frameworks
bankers, companies and states’. invested; and used to label green bonds.
France and Poland are making • an ex-post control based on the Finally, it must be noted that
their first forays into the green bond opinion of a committee of most of the green bonds are held
markets against the backdrop of the experts in environmental issues. by institutional investors. A way
Paris Agreement on climate change, forward could be to ease individual
which came into force in November However, some uncertainties investors’ access to the market.
2016. The agreement obliges 195 remain and the committee For these reasons, with hope that
countries to hold global warming members selection process is yet developments in France and Poland
to no more than 2oC above pre- to be determined. Moreover, these represent a new era, there is more
industrial levels. monitoring measures are limited to progress to be made in terms of
The global market is currently France and will have little impact bringing legal certainty on a global
dominated by development banks, globally. perspective.
businesses and local authorities, and Another consequence of the
it is hoped the entrance of powerful lack of common definition is
state bodies could build momentum standardisation might be more
IN BRIEF
Wood Group has secured a and 10 – Total. Some mid-tier but also for aerial photography,
five-year, multi-million dollar NOCs appear to be struggling, with surveying and security. The
framework agreement to continue Mexico’s Pemex down three places technology is particularly attractive
to provide engineering and to 18th and Libya’s National Oil for its use in improving safety. For
project management services to Corporation sliding two to 33rd. example, sending unmanned aircraft
Saudi Aramco’s onshore capital Spain’s Repsol jumped seven places instead of people into confined
programmes in the Kingdom of following its acquisition of Canada’s spaces to conduct inspections
Saudi Arabia. Effective immediately, Talisman. Meanwhile, headwinds reduces risk, and is also effective and
the contract also includes three, in shale hit US independents, with efficient. We expect their usage to
one-year extension options and will Anadarko dropping five places and grow.’ The new guidelines aim to
be delivered locally in Saudi Arabia. Chesapeake three. achieve consistency with the high
safety and operating standards
Energy Intelligence has released its A new publication to help guide the already adopted on the UKCS for
annual ranking of the world’s 100 growing use offshore of unmanned offshore oil and gas production and
largest oil and gas companies, which aerial systems (UAS) – also known helicopter flight operations. ‘The
compares private sector firms with as drones – has been published intention is to encourage offshore
national oil companies (NOCs). The by Oil & Gas UK. According to operators planning on using this
Top 10 companies in this year’s Mick Borwell, Health, Safety and emerging technology to think about
rankings are 1 – Saudi Aramco; Environment Director with Oil & Gas the whole operating and safety
2 – NIOC; =3 – CNPC and UK: ‘A small but increasing number system offshore and not just the air
ExxonMobil; 5 – PDVSA; =6 – BP of oil and gas operators are using vehicle,’ concluded Borwell.
and Rosneft; 8 – Shell; 9 – Gazprom UAS for inspections predominantly,
8 Petroleum Review | February 2017Hosted by
Showcase your
excellence in 2017
The annual EI Awards competition is now open for entries. The Awards
celebrate teams and individuals across the global energy sector who have
demonstrated excellence in areas such as:
• Communication • Environment
• Community Initiative • Innovation
• Energy Champion • Safety
• Energy Excellence • Technology
• Efficiency • Young Energy Professional of the Year
If you or someone you know has done something outstanding to shape
our energy future, please enter the EI Awards in 2017 to gain the
recognition you deserve.
Deadline for entries is 26 May 2017
For information on how to enter please visit: energyinst.org/ei-awards
Knowledge Watch your inbox
Energy Barometer 2017
Your chance to inform energy policy
and make your voice heard
“The Energy Barometer zones in on the
biggest challenges facing our sector, “Very thought provoking.
Thank you.”
and society, over the next few years.
2016 Survey respondent
The issues highlighted by people
working at the heart of the energy “A very well constructed survey
and a privilege to have been
industry will resonate as a timely asked to participate.”
contribution to the policy debate.” 2016 Survey respondent
Brent Cheshire
UK Country Chairman, DONG Energy
Watch your inbox in January for an invitation to share your views. The survey will follow in February.
knowledge.energyinst.org/barometerEI News
IP Week 2017 to assess impact of eventful
past year on industry future
I
n the wake of the UK vote to ‘Over the years, IP Week has
leave the European Union, become an unmissable event for
the ratification of the Paris oil and gas industry executives as a
Agreement on climate change, global platform for thought-
Donald Trump’s election to the leadership on the issues affecting
US presidency; and with further the sector,’ says Louise Kingham
political and economic milestones OBE FEI, Chief Executive, Energy
ahead, International Petroleum Institute. ‘This year will be of
(IP) Week – hosted by the EI in Barkindo, OPEC’s Secretary General, particular interest considering the
London from 21 to 23 February – Dr Hoesung Lee, Chair of the significant events of the past few
will offer a timely forum to assess Intergovernmental Panel on months. We are entering a new era
the future impact of these events Climate Change (IPCC), H.E. in international relations and
on the global oil and gas sector. Dr Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada, trade, and IP Week 2017 will
It will also debate the effect of Minister for Energy and Industry, represent a particularly valuable
industry-specific issues such as the State of Qatar, alongside leaders opportunity to gauge the mood
challenging oil price environment from many major oil and gas and expectations of the oil and gas
and OPEC’s production cuts. operators, including Igor Sechin, industry in these challenging
Over the three days of CEO of Rosneft. Those attending times.’
conferences, roundtables and the prestigious IP Week dinner on
social events, delegates will receive 23 February will also hear from To find out more about this year’s event and
register, visit ipweek.co.uk
insights from distinguished figures Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and
including Mohammad Sanusi CEO of Total.
IN YOUR AREA Queen’s Honour for EI Vice-
North East YPN visit Drax Power Station
In October, the EI North East Young
President Dr Bernie Bulkin FEI
Professionals Network (NEYPN) organised
a visit for 25 members to the Drax Power Many congratulations to the EI’s Vice-
Station in Selby, North Yorkshire, which President Dr Bernie Bulkin FEI who has
supplies around 7% of the UK’s power at any been made an OBE in the Queen’s New
one time. Having been welcomed by Phillip Year Honours List for services to the
Batty of Haven Power, the delegates were energy industry.
given a summary of operations at the power Dr Bulkin has been an eminent and
station, from the supply chain behind the influential voice in the energy world
fuels used on site (coal and biomass), to Drax for many years, having served across
work towards cleaner power generation. industry, policy and academic circles. He
has had an extensive portfolio of roles
ranging from Chief Technology Officer
of BP Oil and then as Chief Scientist of
BP to Member of the DTI Energy Board
(2006 – 2009) and Chair of the Office
of Renewable Energy in Department
of Energy and Climate Change (2010 –
2013).
As an academic, Dr Bulkin has been
Honorary Professor at the University
of York and Professorial Fellow at
Cambridge, where he co-founded the
They then toured the facilities, including
‘Environment on the Edge’ lecture series. companies AEA Technology and Pursuit
the national grid HV infrastructure, cooling
Some of the lectures were published Dynamics.
towers, biomass storage systems and control
by the UN Environment Programme Following the publication of his
room. The turbine sheds were particularly
and programmes on the theme were book Crash Course in 2015, he currently
awe-inspiring for the visitors. The branch
broadcast on Voice America. coaches companies in leadership
would like to thank Drax Power Station and
Dr Bulkin has also worked as a techniques as a senior partner of UK
Haven Power for helping organise the event,
venture capitalist, first as a partner in US consultancy Refresch.
Newcastle University for their financial
firm Vantage Point, and more recently Dr Bulkin joined the EI Council in
help, and Marcelo Calispa Aguilar for the
for Ludgate Investments Limited. He 2012 and was appointed Vice-President
photography.
has been a Non-executive Director of at the latest AGM in June 2016. We
For more detailed reports from the EI branches Severn Trent and currently serves as a are honoured and grateful to enjoy
network, including speaker presentations, and further Non-executive Director of US firm ATN the support of such a respected figure
information about forthcoming activities and events in International. He chaired UK public toward our work.
your area, visit energyinst.org/branches
10 Petroleum Review | February 2017EI News
IN BRIEF
Certificate of Appreciation for EI Aviation 2015), supervising the production of seven New EI eLibrary titles
Committee Chairman publications, hosting technical seminars for The following titles have been recently
international stakeholders and resolving added to the EI’s extensive eLibrary
feedback from stakeholder review. collection – one of the most valuable
resources from the EI Knowledge Service,
2017 Energy Barometer alongside the Energy Matrix, Information
The 2017 Energy Barometer survey will be sheets and access to periodicals.
emailed to EI College members this month. Dodson, Jago, et al. Planning after
If you accepted your invitation this year, petroleum: preparing cities for the age
or completed the survey for the first time beyond oil. 2017.
last year, you will receive a link to complete
FitzRoy, Felix; Papyrakis, Elissaios. An
the 2017 questionnaire online. The survey
introduction to climate change economics.
enables a number of EI members to share
2016.
their insights and concerns about the future
of the UK energy system with policymakers. Navanietha Krishnaraj, R.; Yu, Jong-Sung.
In a recent blog (blog.energyinst.org), Bioenergy: opportunities and challenges.
Dr Joanne Wade FEI, Chair of the EI Energy 2016.
Dr Anthony Kitson-Smith (right) receives certificate of Advisory Panel, reflects on the impact of Newton, David E. Fracking: a reference
appreciation from Martin Hunnybun MEI, Technical last year’s report and how the EI was able handbook. 2015
Team Manager, Energy Institute
to build on its findings to further inform Henderson, Harry. Nuclear power: a reference
The EI has presented Dr Anthony Kitson- energy policy. The 2017 report will be handbook. 2nd ed. 2014
Smith with a Certificate of Appreciation in published in June.
Adaramola, Muyiwa. Wind resources and
recognition of his much valued services as knowledge.energyinst.org/barometer
future energy resources: environment, social
Chairman of the Aviation Committee,
and economic issues. 2015
2015 – 2016, and significant contribution Energy Efficiency conference and workshop
to the field of aviation fuel quality and 29 – 30 March 2017 Visit knowledge.energyinst.org to explore energy
handling. The EI’s popular Energy Efficiency conference information and data, and access the e-Library.
During his tenure, Anthony has returns next month with an additional
demonstrated considerable leadership, workshop taking place the following day.
Sadly, we have been notified, over the past
been responsible for significantly Under the theme ‘Embedding behaviour
few months, of the deaths of the following
progressing key projects, represented the change to unlock efficiency potential’, the
members:
EI at a number of stakeholder events and conference will discuss how to reduce
Born
devoted a lot of his time to committee carbon emissions and lower operational
Mr G Cardinal FEI 1947
activities. Highlights include establishing costs, and explore the issue at the heart
Mr T M Jensen FEI 1938
the committee’s highest priority items of effective energy management: people.
Mr K Gladstone-Millar FEI 1921
and focusing available resources on their Topics will include behaviour change,
Mr C H D Lamb MEI 1945
completion; updating the committee on management strategy and performance
Mr N A Osbourn CEng FEI 1924
IATA Fuel Forums, UK MoD Aviation Fuels monitoring. The workshop will build on
Mr G G Pyett MEI 1932
Committee meetings, a National Institute the conference outcomes and focus on the
Mr S P Redgrave MEI 1948
of Storage Tank Management conference latest behaviour change techniques and
Dr W Stockdale FEI 1945
(Orlando) and Joint Inspection Group solutions. Find out more at energyinst.org/
Mr G Williams CBE FEI 1917
workshops, representing the EI as part of events
an IATA technical mission to Beijing (April
Help inspire the next generation 2017 Hawley Award
of scientists and engineers: open for entries
join the Big Bang Crew A prestigious annual engineering award supported
by the Engineering Council has launched its 2017
campaign to recognise the most outstanding
The organisers of the 2017 Big Bang collect extensive careers information. engineering innovation that delivers demonstrable
UK Young Scientists & Engineers Entry is free and the Crew’s role is to benefit to the environment.
Fair are calling for volunteers to join ensure that the exhibition is accessible The Hawley Award is open to individuals who
the ‘Big Bang Crew’ and help inspire to visitors of all ages – but especially have undertaken after graduate or post-graduate
school children into studying STEM the very many young ones. degree work and have at least reached a stage
disciplines. The Fair, which takes place Roles available include helping with where a prototype or a proof of concept has been
in Birmingham on 15 – 18 March, events, activities, career information developed, with the expectation of commercial
is the largest celebration of science, and the judging of projects (the latter implementation. Candidates must be members
technology, engineering and maths requires STEM career experience). of a professional engineering institution and
for young people in the UK, with within ten years of starting a professional career
over 70,000 young people, teachers Further details on how to get involved can as an engineer or scientist in either academia or
be found at thebigbangfair.co.uk/play-your-
and parents expected to attend part/volunteering. The official deadline for industry. Individuals can put themselves forward
and enjoy theatre shows, engage applications is 29 January 2017 but the EI has for the award but must have the support of a
in interactive workshops, discover secured a few days’ extension to enable its supervisor. The winner’s cash prize is £5,000.
members to apply.
science and engineering projects and The entry deadline is 18 April 2017. Interviews
for shortlisted candidates will be held on 3 or 4
May 2017. Full details can be found at engc.org.uk
Petroleum Review | February 2017 11Low carbon future
FINANCE
Systemic risk or
greenwashing?
Central banks are poised to regulate both the Market awareness
Richard Tol, Professor of the
transition to a low carbon economy and the Economics of Climate Change at
Sussex University, disagrees. ‘Do we
environment, writes Maria Kielmas. really believe that governments are
secretly preparing a climate policy
and the suckers on Wall Street
are not aware of this? There is no
‘C
limate change is the a new financial powder keg. bubble.’ Government energy and
tragedy on the horizon,’ Carney in particular has come climate policies affect companies,
warned Bank of England under fire since Britain’s June 2016 he adds. This was seen when
Governor Mark Carney in vote to leave the European Union the ExxonMobil share price rose
September 2015 when addressing for ‘overreach’, straying into the when the market anticipated that
members of the Lloyds of London political arena and claiming a say with former ExxonMobil CEO Rex
insurance market. His aim was to in environmental regulation. Tillerson at the State Department,
highlight how climate change is Underpinning the central the US may lift sanctions against
a risk to global financial markets. bankers’ concern about climate Russia, thus enabling growth in
His speech followed one by Paul risks is the ‘carbon bubble’ thesis. ExxonMobil’s Russian investments.
Fisher, Bank of England Executive First proposed in 2011 by London- But Tol does not believe that there
Director of Insurance Supervision, based environmental advocacy is a risk of climate policy causing
that the insurance sector faces group Carbon Tracker, this states mayhem. ‘Sensible governments
major losses if it continues to that the world must keep within a won’t do this,’ he said. Although
invest in fossil fuel-based assets ‘carbon budget’– the CO2 volume noting that ‘Germany is the
should governments take action that may be emitted to avoid exception,’ referring to Germany’s
to cut greenhouse gas emissions global mean temperature from energiewende, the transition to
in line with recommendations rising 2°C above pre-industrial renewables that has had profound
from the United Nation’s levels by 2050 – to avoid a effects on utilities such as RWE
Intergovernmental Panel on catastrophic climate change. This and E.ON. These companies were
Climate Change (IPCC). Speaking benchmark was recommended by left with stranded hard coal,
in Berlin one year later, Carney the IPCC and endorsed by the 2016 though not lignite, and gas-fired
said that ‘climate transition and Paris Agreement. If this logic is power generation plants and laid
green finance can help resolve’ this followed, then up to 80% of world off thousands of workers. But the
looming tragedy. proven oil, gas and coal reserves combination of state subsidies
Underpinning central Reactions to the Bank of would be unproduceable without and unlimited access to the power
bankers’ concern about England statements ranged from expensive carbon capture grid for renewable producers
climate risks is the ‘carbon
bubble’ thesis, which states
positive from the insurance and technology, left ‘stranded’, and lead irrespective of demand has led
that the world must keep reinsurance industries to vitriolic to a collapse in the market value of at times to negative wholesale
within a ‘carbon budget’– from capital markets players who all fossil fuel-based companies. electricity prices. The surplus
the CO2 volume that may
be emitted to avoid global
blamed central bank policies of Proponents of this thesis claim passed free to neighbouring
mean temperature from quantitative easing since the 2008 that this is comparable, but worse, Austria and Switzerland, but
rising 2°C above pre- financial crisis for suppressing than the housing and sub-prime Germany had to pay for its
industrial levels by 2050 – to
avoid a catastrophic climate
market interest rates, artificially mortgage bubble whose collapse disposal and consumers face ever
change inflating asset prices, contributing was one of the causes of the 2008 increasing domestic retail power
Source: Shutterstock to wealth inequality and creating financial crisis. prices.
12 Petroleum Review | February 2017You can also read
