Downstream Landscape in SADC Opportunities for Namibia / Walvis Bay - Namibia Oil and Gas Conference 2019

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Downstream Landscape in SADC Opportunities for Namibia / Walvis Bay - Namibia Oil and Gas Conference 2019
Downstream Landscape in SADC
                               Opportunities for Namibia / Walvis Bay
                               Swakopmund, Namibia Oil & Gas Conference, April 2019

                              Stanislas Drochon, Director, Africa Oil & Gas
                              Mobile: +33 6 45 45 53 00 –   stanislas.drochon@ihsmarkit.com

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IHS Markit activities in the Oil Markets, Midstream, Downstream group

              Oil Markets,                                                                      BESPOKE CONSULTING
                                                                                                •
               Midstream,                                                               4       •
                                                                                                    Strategy development and investment options assessment
                                                                                                    Market studies to support portfolio optimization and business development
                                                                                                •   Competitive benchmarking
              Downstream                                                                        •   Refinery economics and crude valuations
              & Chemical                                                                        •   Transaction support, due diligence and asset valuations

                                                                                   SUBSCRIPTIONS
                                                                           3       •   Crude Oil Markets
                                                                                   •   Midstream Oil & Natural Gas Liquids                                              INSIGHT
                                                                                   •   Refining & Marketing
                                                                                   •   Global Lubricants Service
                                                                                   •   Company Strategies & Performance

                                                              2      ANALYTICAL MODELS
                                                                     •   Energy Demand Model                                                                      ANALYTICS
                                                                     •   Product Supply/Demand Model
                                                                     •   Crude Flow Model
                                                                     •   Custom model and functionality development

                                             1            MIDSTREAM CONTENT & ASSETS
                                                          • Midstream Essentials                                                                                     CONTENT
                                                                                                                                                                                2
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Consulting in Africa – Samples
• Logistics                                               • Strategy
    > Alternative supply routes for Botswana               > NOC in Southern Africa
    > Market Study for Storage Development:                > Major in Africa
      Mozambique, Tanzania, Djibouti, Ghana etc           • Market Study for Refinery Project
    > Mozambique-Zimbabwe pipeline                         > South Africa, South Sudan, Liberia, Nigeria
                                                             etc
• Due Diligence – Buyer’s side
                                                          • Portfolio Review
    > Major’s integrated assets in South Africa
                                                           > Regional oil company
    > Major’s assets in North Africa
    > Major’s retail assets in Kenya                      • Review of Affiliate Performance
                                                           > Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Uganda etc
• Presentation and support to the Board
    > NOC, regional oil companies                         • Market Entry Strategy

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                                                           > Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, Liberia etc
Regional Trends – SADC

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SADC: South Africa the largest market by far
Strongest growths mostly beyond SACU/Islands
  White
  Whiteoiloilproducts demand
               products      in SADC
                         demand   in SADC                                                                   SADC - White oil product demand by country 2018 and 2001-2018 CAGR

                                                    CAGR: +3%/y                 CAGR: +2.6%/y
                  1,000                                                                                     1,000

                   900                                                                                       900
                                                                                                                                                                                     2%    1%   1%      1%
                                                                                                                                                                           3%   3%
                   800                                                                                       800                                                     3%
                                                                                                                                                         3%     3%                  2.4%/y      2%/y
                                                                                                             700                                    3%                    2.4%/y
                                                                                                                                               4%
                   700                                                                                                                 8%                      2.3%/y          0.6%/y     2.8%/y    2.8%/y
   thousand b/d

                                                                                                                                 9%                7.8%/y             3.5%/y
                                                                                                             600
                   600                                                                                                                         7.2%/y 8.8%/y
                                                                                                                       59%            9.2%/y
                                                                                                             500
                   500
                                                                                                                     1.9%/y 6.2%/y
                                                                                                             400
                   400
                                                                                                             300                                                                 Namibia:
                   300
                                                                                                             200                                                        small size, limited growth
                   200
                                                                                                             100
                   100
                                                                                                                 0
                     0
                          2001        2005        2010        2015      2018     2020        2025
                          Other White Products (Jet Fuel, Kerosene, LPG) Gasoline Gasoil© 2019 IHS Markit
  Source: IHS Markit                                                                                        Source: IHS Markit                                                                    © 2019 IHS Markit

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Refining production on slight decline, heavily concentrated in South Africa

  White
  Whiteoiloilproducts demand
               products      in SADC
                         supply  in SADC                                                                  SADC - White oil product supply by country - 2018

          1,000                                                                                           1,000

                  900                                                                                      900

                  800                                                                                      800

                  700                                                                                      700
   thousand b/d

                  600                                                                                      600

                  500                                                                                      500                                                 2%
                                                                                                                                  94%          4%
                                                                                                           400
                  400
                                                                                                           300
                  300
                                                                                                           200
                  200
                                                                                                           100
                  100
                                                                                                               0
                   0                                                                                                           SouthAfrica    Angola          Zambia
                        2001       2005        2010         2015      2018     2020        2025
                        Other White Products (Jet Fuel, Kerosene, LPG) Gasoline Gasoil© 2019 IHS Markit
  Source: IHS Markit                                                                                      Source: IHS Markit                                        © 2019 IHS Markit

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Fast growing imports explain the growing appetite from traders for the region
South Africa turned into a large net importer since 2005 – and will remain so
  White
  Whiteoiloilproducts SD balance
               products          in SADC
                         SD balance    in                        SADC                                             South Africa - White oil product SD Balance

                    0                                                                                             100

                                                                                                                                        Moving from exporter toward large importer
                  -100
                                                                                                                   50
                                                                                                                                         Opens opportunities to develop
                                                                                                                                          alternative supply routes to hinterland
                  -200
   thousand b/d

                                                                                                                     0
                  -300

                                                                                                                   -50
                  -400

                  -500                                                                                            -100

                  -600
                         2001               2005          2010      2015   2018     2020          2025            -150
  Source: IHS Markit     Other White Products (Jet Fuel, Kerosene, LPG)       Gasoline   Gasoil                          2001          2005    2009     2013     2017     2021            2025
                                                                                              © 2019 IHS Markit   Source: IHS Markit                                             © 2019 IHS Markit

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98% of fuel imported in Walvis Bay is for the local market – ie we are not a hub or
   even a corridor (yet?)
                                                                                                  2018 White products imports by port and destination

                                                                                                               100                                                                                    80%
                                                                                                                                                            Transit flows to SADC
Matadi/                                                                                                         90
                                                                                                                                                            Local flows                               70%
Muanda                                                                    Dar es Salaam                         80
                                                                                                                                                            Share of SADC transit in
                                                                                                                                                                                                      60%
                                                                                                                                                            total imports (right axis)
                                                                                                                70
 Luanda
                                                                                                                                                                                                      50%

                                                                                                Thousand b/d
                                                                                                                60
                                                     Lusaka                 Nacala
 Lobito                                                                                                         50                                                                                    40%

                                                                                                                40
                                                                                                                                                                                                      30%
        Grootfontein/
        Tsumeb                                                                                                  30
                                                                  Beira                                                                                                                               20%
                                                                                                                20
Walvis Bay                                                                                                                                                                                            10%
                                                                 Maputo                                         10

                                                                                                                 0                                                                                    0%
                                                              Durban      Transit country                            Dar es Durban Luanda   Beira   Walvis Maputo Matadi      Cape       Nacala
                                                                                                                     Salaam                          Bay                      Town
                                                                                                  Source: IHS Markit                                                                       © 2019 IHS Markit

                                                                          Landlocked country
         Cape Town                                                                   /region                         Existing flows

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                                                                          Key port for import                        Potential flows
Namibia – What next?
How to import cheaply and reliably?
Is there a future for Walvis Bay as a hub / corridor?

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If the objective is to import at the cheapest price…

• … then implementing a transparent BPS (Bulk                 Tanzania - BPS results - Average premium of the BPS winner
  Procurement System) for 100% of volumes, managed
                                                                       60
  by an independent body, seems like a fair potential
  solution
                                                                       50
• Key stakeholders could include (non exhaustive list):
    > MME, MoF, MoTI, BoN                                              40

    > Namport, TransNamib

                                                             US$/ton
                                                                       30
    > NAMCOR and private OMCs
• Examples: Kenya, Tanzania or Mozambique                              20

• Additional questions:
                                                                       10
    > Why “50%” for NAMCOR’s mandate?
                                                                        0
         – Economies of scale would be better with 100%...                         2012                           2017
                                                              Source: IHS Markit                                           © 2019 IHS Markit

    > What’s different from last decade's context?

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What makes a key fuel hub? Is Walvis Bay a hub?
 What makes a key liquid storage hub? How does that apply to Walvis Bay?

        1                                                          2           Political stability/               3                                         4
                            Strategic location                                                                          Significant storage capacity                     Refining center
                                                                               open environment

            • Small local market size, limited                         • Namibia a relatively stable,                 • Limited storage capacities and          • No refinery currently (or in
              upside                                                     open country                                   competition vs other ports in the         future)
            • Far from hinterland markets –                            • Strong support for port                        region
              only accessible by road                                    development from port/local
                                                                         authorities
            • No petrochemical, refining or
              sizeable bunker activity                                 • A number of questions remain
                                                                         unanswered – uncertainties

                                        5                 Significant                    6         Port infrastructure and                7
                                                                                                                                                      Pricing center
                                                           oil flows                                 competitive costs

                                            • At the end of fuel flows from                  • Port costs competitive with rivals          • No crude and product price
                                              NWE or Middle East                                                                             assessments based on WB
                                                                                             • Investment in new jetty
                                            • Not along fuel trading routes                  • But transport cost not
                                                                                               competitive at all beyond port
  Source: IHS Markit                                                                                                                                                                       © 2019 IHS Markit

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Walvis Bay as a corridor – What it would take to increase transit volumes?
Operational aspects seem positive – but transport to markets is prohibitive and/or unreliable

                                  1          Vessel Arrives at Port     2   Product Landed            3   Product Storage at Port    5     Product Exits Port

     Import                                                                                                                                                                       End
    Location                                                                                                                                                                     Market

                                                                                ?

                                  • New petroleum jetty coming                                                                       • Next markets beyond Namibia (Angola,
                                    onstream soon                     • Free imports for now
                                                                                                      • Reasonable storage fees        Botswana, Copperbelt) are very far from
                                                                        (handled by two OMCs)
                                                                                                                                       WB – and would be supplied on non-
                                  • Deep sea port (2x60DWT                                            • Excess storage capacities      competitive road/rail transport from WB
                                    only though, vs same in Beira     • Impact of NAMCOR’s
                                                                                                        coming with MME/NAMCOR’s
    Walvis                          and 150,000 DWT in Dar es           potential mandate?
                                                                                                        depot coming onstream (ie    • Only cheap rail could make it competitive
                                    Salaam)                                                             will have less than 5          for WB, but 1) cost? 2) reliability?
     Bay                                                              • Economies of scale are
                                                                                                        turnaround per year, or 80           • Lower cost?
                                  • Operations smooth at the port       critical:
                                                                                                        days of reserves)                    • Enhance Transnamib capacities
                                  • Limited demurrage                          • 100% “mandate”?
                                                                                                                                               with potential secondary storage in
                                                                               • BPS?
                                  • Port cost competitive (esp vs                                      Might reduce storage costs             Grootfontein/Tsumeb?
                                                                               • Include neighbors?
                                    Mozambique)                                                                                              • Expand rail network to Caprivi?

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Walvis Bay is far from its key export markets – and transportation costs per unit are
among the highest… The case of Lusaka
  Distance to Lusaka - km                                                                                               Average cost per km per cu.m - To Lusaka

2,500
                                                                                                                                            NB: Rail cost per unit is 30% more
                                                                                                                                          expensive in Namibia (WB-GF) than in
2,000                                                                                                                                             Angola (Lobito-Luau)

                              Gap
1,500                          x2
                                                          Road       Road      Road        Rail         Road

1,000
                                       Road
                  Road                                                                                   Rail
   500
                                                                     Rail
                                       Pipe

       0                                                                                                                               Dar es   Lobito-Luau- Beira-Lusaka Walvis Bay- Walvis Bay- Beira-Harare-
                   Beira                Beira             Dar es   Walvis Bay Walvis Bay   Durban       Lobito                       Salaam-    Lusaka (rail-      (road)       Grootfontein- Lusaka (road)  Lusaka
                                                          Salaam                                                                  Lusaka (road)    road)                           Lusaka                   (pipeline-
  Source: IHS Markit                                                                                © 2019 IHS Markit   Source: IHS Markit                    © 2019 IHS Markit  (rail+road)                  road)

   NB: Zambia is the main destination for Namport’s transit (all goods)

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As a consequence, Walvis Bay is not competitive to supply the hinterland at current
transportation fees
 Transport costs to Lusaka

                                                          Road            Pipeline + secondary storage         Rail + secondary storage
                                                                                                                                                                      Rail doesn’t create competitive
                                                                                                                                                                       advantage on price from WB

                                      Gap
                                       x2

                                                                            Road                          Road                            Road                        Road                       Road

                                     Road                                Pipeline +                                                    Rail +
                                                                                                                                                                     Rail +
                                                                         secondary                                                   secondary
                                                                                                                                                                   secondary
                                                                          storage                                                     storage
                                                                                                                                                                    storage
                          Beira-Lusaka (road)                    Beira-Harare-Lusaka (pipeline- Dar es Salaam-Lusaka (road) Lobito-Luau-Lusaka (rail-road)   Walvis Bay-Grootfontein-   Walvis Bay-Lusaka (road)
 Source: IHS Markit
                                                                             road)                                                                             Lusaka (rail+road)                       © 2019 IHS Markit

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15

And even within Namibia, rail appears less competitive than road….

 Cost to Supply Grootfontein from Walvis Bay

                                                          Secondary storage

                                                               Rail           Road

                                                                 Rail          Road
 Source: IHS Markit                                                                   © 2019 IHS Markit

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Turning Walvis Bay as a regional corridor :
Proposed approach for a strategy definition

            Objective:                                      Approach:

                                                          1. Map the regional fuel supply chains from various ports to the
                                                             hinterland markets
               Establish Walvis                           2. Understand the competitiveness of Walvis Bay against these
               Bay as the most                               competing ports from both a tangible (direct and indirect cost) and
               competitive port                              intangible (reliability, trustworthiness, safety) perspective
               in the region with
                                                          3. Identify and assess changes that could improve the competitiveness
               regards to fuel
                                                             of Walvis Bay – clear, transparent cost benefit analysis
               supply for the
               hinterland                                 4. Select strategic and operational actions
                                                          5. Make strategic and operational recommendations and identify how
                                                             implementation could be financed

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Conclusion
A few questions ahead…

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A few questions ahead…
                                                                                            How to establish the Port of
  How to ensure MME’ storage
                                                            What import scheme for          Walvis Bay as the preferred
   use optimization, ie avoid
                                                           which ultimate objectives?           entry point for the
   white elephant syndrome?
                                                                                                    hinterland?
• Commercial vs strategic                                 • Ensure lowest prices and        • Develop an Integrated
  stocks balance? How to                                    most reliable supply for          Strategy that would
  optimize throughput?                                      consumers – critical              establish the Port of Walvis
  • Decapitalize, bring in other                            objectives (?)                    Bay as the preferred entry
    partners?                                               • Transparency critical           point for traders and oil
• Who will operate the                                      • Fuel represents 1st item of     companies supplying the
  storage with NAMCOR?                                        Namibia’s overall imports       hinterland
                                                          • How will the 50% mandate          • Seems like a number of
                                                                                                actions have to be taken
• Subsidiary question – when                                be organized, if confirmed?
  is the last time we had a                                 • How to avoid the “G.
  shortage?                                                   experience” to happen
                                                              again?
                                                          • How to create trust among
                                                            stakeholders?

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Thank you
                                                              –

                                                           Q&A
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20

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