Singtel Singapore Coal Monthly US Weekly China Weekly Phillip Singapore Weekly

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Singtel Singapore Coal Monthly US Weekly China Weekly Phillip Singapore Weekly
18 March 19, 8.15am/11.15am Morning Call/Webinar

                                                                                                                                Singtel
                                                                                                    Singapore Coal Monthly
                                                                                                                          US Weekly
                                                                                                                      China Weekly
                                                                                                   Phillip Singapore Weekly

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Singtel Singapore Coal Monthly US Weekly China Weekly Phillip Singapore Weekly
Disclaimer

         The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (“PSR”) has no reason to believe are
         unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such
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Singtel Singapore Coal Monthly US Weekly China Weekly Phillip Singapore Weekly
Singtel’s participation in Airtel
                                                  rights issue

                                                                                                                          Alvin Chia
                                                                                                                   Research Analyst
                                                                                                    Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
                                                                                                                       18 Mar 2019

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Singtel Singapore Coal Monthly US Weekly China Weekly Phillip Singapore Weekly
Singtel’s participation in Airtel rights issue
                                  Airtel fund raising:
                                  1. To raise US$4.5bn from rights issue & perpetual bonds
                                  2. Promoter group & GIC to jointly subscribe for 67% of rights issue
                                  3. Singtel to subscribe for ~US$525mn in rights shares (total investments ~
                                     US$900mn in 12mths)

                                  Impact on Singtel:
                                  1. Singtel diluted to 35.2% from 39.5% (Still largest shareholder in Airtel)
                                  2. Fund US$525mn via cash/debt
                                  3. Net debt/EBITDA still healthy at 1.68x

                                     Figure 1:

                                    Source: Singtel

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India is stabilising
                                 • Consolidated from 10 to 4 operators
                                 • ARPU improved supported by introduction of minimum recharge
                                       plans (Top up - Rs 23 for 28 days)
                                 • We expect competition from Reliance Jio to rationalise

                                    Figure 2: Airtel India ARPU (Rs)                                                               Figure 3: Market revenue share

                                                                                              QoQ ARPU increase
                                                                                              in Q3FY19

                                    Source: Airtel                                                                                     Source: Singtel
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Debt levels healthy
                                   Moody’s will downgrade rating either of these 2 conditions:
                                   1. Net debt/EBITDA < 2.0x (adjusted associate cash dividends back to core EBITDA)
                                                                                                                         Figure 6: Peers Net debt/EBITDA

                                                                                                                          Company        1 Mth        3 Mth         YTD       Share Px Market Cap Net debt/
                                                                                                                                          Perf.        Perf.        Perf.       Local       (US$mn)         EBITDA
                                                                                                                          India
                                                                                                                          Bharti         13.8%         7.3%         9.6%        337.0          19,473           4.21
                                                                                                                          Vodafone Idea
                                                                                                                                      6 .8%            -6.6%      -10.5%         34.0            4,287          N.A.
                                                                                                                          Indonesia
                                                                                                                          Telkom          -0.3%        0.0%        -0.5%       3740.0          25,970           0.61
                                                                                                                          Indosat        -27.7%       48.9%        60.8%       2720.0            1,036          3.11
                                                                                                                          XL Axiata      24.4%        32.8%        28.8%       2580.0            1,933          2.46
                                   2. EBIDTA margin below 30% on a                                                        Thailand

                                   sustained basis                                                                        AIS
                                                                                                                          DTAC
                                                                                                                                          -0.3%
                                                                                                                                         10.5%
                                                                                                                                                       8.2%
                                                                                                                                                      15.4%
                                                                                                                                                                    6.6%
                                                                                                                                                                   21.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                180.5
                                                                                                                                                                                 52.8
                                                                                                                                                                                               16,931
                                                                                                                                                                                                 3,941
                                                                                                                                                                                                                1.36
                                                                                                                                                                                                                1.61
                                                                                                                          Philippines
                                   Figure 5: EBITDA Margin                                                                Globe           2.4%         -3.2%        2.8%       1916.0            4,845          1.90
                                                                                                                          PLDT INC        -3.2%        -0.7%        0.6%       1161.0            4,767          1.99
                                                                     FY18                 FY19e                           Malaysia
                                                                                                                          Axiata          5.3%         7.8%         5.9%         4.2             9,320          3.19
                                                                                                                          Digi            -0.1%        5.2%         1.7%         4.6             8,786          0.76
                                   EBITDA Margin                    29.0%                 27.5%                           Australia
                                                                                                                          Telstra         6.5%        16.5%        17.3%         3.3             9,484          1.91
                                   Source: PSR
                                                                                                                          Singapore
                                                                                                                          M1              0.5%         -2.4%       -1.9%         2.1             1,409          1.24
                                                                                                                          StarHub        -17.4%       -12.8%      -10.3%         1.6             1,980          1.53
                                                                                                                                          2.8%         5.5%         5.6%                      126,158           1.95
                                                                                                                          Singtel         -1.3%        0.6%         2.0%         3.0           36,528           2.07
                                                                                                                         Source: Bloomberg, PSR
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Singtel limited
                                    Accumulate (maintained), TP S$3.27,Last S$3.02

                                     1. Expect moderate recovery in associates (~40% of earnings)
                                     2. Enterprise segment to offset weakness in the consumer business
                                         • ICT service revenue to remain healthy with S$2.9bn in order book

                                     We continue to like Singtel because of:
                                     1. Diversified earnings
                                     2. Stable dividend yield of 5.8%

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Singapore Coal Monthly
         Indonesian coal might see a new opportunity
                                                                                                                              Chen Guangzhi
                                                                                                                            Research Analyst
                                                                                                             Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
                                                                                                                              18 March 2019

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Singapore Coal Monthly
    China
    China restricted Australian coal imports
    •      In Feb-19, Dalian Customs imposed an infinite restriction on Australian coal imports; Considered to
           implement a quota of 12mn tonnes of the overall coal import for 2019
    •      Five ports under the supervision of the custom executed the ban
    •      Slow down the customs clearance of Australian coal by at least 40 days

    Approval for resumption of work in coal mines in Yulin City in Shannxi
    •      Ministry of Energy of Yulin City announced the approval for resumption of mining work in the first batch of
           49 mines with an annual capacity of 168mn tonnes in mid- Feb-19
    •      The second batch of 15 mines with an annual capacity of 35.6mn tonnes resumed as well
    Indonesia
    Demand for Indonesian thermal coal heats up
    •      Domestic producers were receiving more inquiries for high-CV coal from China in Feb-19
    •      Some Smaller scale high-CV producers are returning to the market
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Singapore Coal Monthly
 Temporary supply shock boosted the coal imports but it’s unsustainable
 • In Jan-19, Total coal import to China jumped by 19.5% YoY and 227.5% QoQ to 33.5mn tonnes
 • Indonesian coal imports surged by 16% YoY to a three-year new high of 16mn tonnes during the period
 • Total coal import plunged by 15.5% YoY and 47.3% QoQ to 17.6mn tonnes in Feb-19
 • Port coal inventory was replenished, and demand for coal is tapering

 Indonesian coal has the potential to partially fill the supply gap
 • In 2018, there were 5,800 mines shut and more than 150mn tonnes of capacity phased out.
 • In 2019 and 2020, China will continue to curtail the remaining 150mn tonnes of capacity to complete the goal
   of total 800mn tonnes capacity elimination in the Plan
 • Demand for coal import remains intact
 • The potential ramp-up of high-CV coal production could offset the price headwinds

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Phillip Coal Tracker: Our snapshot of coal markets
Figure 1: Monthly coal production in PRC grew slightly                                    Figure 2: Coal import from Indonesia to China surged in Jan-19 Figure 3: China power demand continues to expand YoY

 Source: National Bureau Statistics of PRC, PSR                                             Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, PSR                                                   Source: National Bureau Statistics of PRC, PSR
Figure 4: Indonesia coal price reference (HBA) stablised                                 Figure 5: Qinhuangdao 5,500 GAR weekly FOB spot price                                        Figure 6: Total port coal inventory was replenished

 Source: Coalspot.com, PSR                                                      Source: Bloomberg, PSR, NDRC price zones (red/blue/green)                       *Source: Bloomberg, PSR
*The total port coal inventory includes coal stockpile at Qinghuangdao Port, Tianjin Port, Caofeidian Port, Guangzhou Port, Jingzhou Port, Lianyungang Port, Dandong Port, Jingtang Port, Yinkou Port, Qingdao Port, and
Huanghuagang Port.
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US Weekly

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US Weekly
    Macro Last Week
     Umich consumer sentiment increase from 93.8 to 97.8 (Consensus: 95.3). That is still below the peak of 101.4 reached last
      March
     Industrial production edged up 0.1% in February (Consensus: 0.4%). The gains were concentrated in utility output and
      mining. Auto output fell a slight 0.1% in March after a revised 7.6% decline in January.
     Headline CPI inflation edged down to a two-and-a-half-year low of 1.5% in February, from 1.6%. Core inflation dropped to a
      four-month low of 2.1%, from 2.2%.
     The value of overall sales rose 0.2% after a 1.6% decrease prior month. Sales in the "control group" subset rose 1.1%
      (Consensus: -2.3%)

    Corporate
     Adobe (ADBE) reported quarterly adjusted EPS of $1.71 (Consensus: $1.61). Revenue came in at $ 2.6bn (Consensus:
      $2.55bn). Document Cloud achieving record revenue of $282 million. There is continued momentum for Adobe Creative
      Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud.
     Oracle (ORCL) reported quarterly adjusted EPS of $0.87 (Consensus: $0.84) and revenue of $9.618bn (Consensus:
      9.608bn). Cloud services and license support: Revenue increased to $6.66 billion (+1% YoY). Cloud license and on‐premise
      license: Revenue decreased to $1.25 billion (-4% YoY). Growth in the higher-margin autonomous database and in Gen 2
      cloud will offset declines in legacy products

    Week(s) Ahead – Key Indicators to be released
     Fed interest rate decision – 21 Mar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                13
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Upcoming Earnings Release

                                                                                                          Phillip Securities Research - Earnings Estimates
                                            Earnings                              Expected        Current Earnings     Consensus Target Price       Prior Period          Prior Period                               Prior Period     Prior Period
                Name                                          Expected EPS                                                                                                                  Surprise Amount                                         Surprise Amount
                                           Result Date                            Revenue           Result Date               ($USD)                 Actual EPS           Expected EPS                              Actual Revenue Expected Revenue

FedEx Corp                                  20-Mar-19             2.80              17673             18-Dec-18                213.50                   4.03                  3.94                 2.3%                17824            17687            0.8%
NIKE Inc                                    22-Mar-19             0.64              9609              20-Dec-18                 89.00                   0.52                  0.46                13.0%                 9374             9169            2.2%
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc                02-Apr-19             1.49              34593             20-Dec-18                 74.00                   1.46                  1.43                 2.0%                33793            33886            -0.3%
BlackRock Inc                               11-Apr-19             5.86              3187              16-Jan-19                472.00                   6.08                  6.28                -3.2%                 3434             3433            0.0%
PNC Financial Services Group I              12-Apr-19             2.62              4270              16-Jan-19                138.00                   2.68                  2.78                -3.9%                 4368             4395            -0.6%
JPMorgan Chase & Co                         12-Apr-19             2.38              28543             15-Jan-19                115.00                   1.98                  2.21                -10.2%               26804            26896            -0.3%
Wells Fargo & Co                            12-Apr-19             1.13              21020             15-Jan-19                 56.00                   1.11                  1.19                -6.5%                21031            21733            -3.2%
Netflix Inc                                 15-Apr-19             0.59              4512              17-Jan-19                419.08                   0.45                  0.39                16.3%                 4187             4206            -0.4%
Charles Schwab Corp/The                     15-Apr-19             0.66              2703              16-Jan-19                 53.00                   0.65                  0.64                 2.6%                 2669             2637            1.2%
Citigroup Inc                               15-Apr-19             1.86              18716             14-Jan-19                 76.00                   1.61                  1.55                 4.1%                17124            17509            -2.2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 14
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Week 12 – China Weekly Musings

                                                                                                                              Jieyuan Zheng
                                                                                                                            Research Analyst
                                                                                                             Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
                                                                                                                              18 March 2019

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China Week 11

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HK Stocks Recommendation
                                                                                                                                            Price On                                   Target                   Expected
             Time                 Ticker                   Company                  Analyst                  Rating
                                                                                                                                     Recommendation Date(HKD)                        Price(HKD)                  Return

         24/1/2019                  0839         China Education Group                  TL                      Buy                                   10.64                              13.41                    26%

         29/1/2019                  3320             CR Pharmaceutical                  EZ                Accumulate                                  11.12                               12.4                   11.5%

          1/2/2019                  0175                      Geely                     ZJ                      Buy                                   12.66                               17.6                    39%

          4/2/2019                  0178                       Sasa                     TK                Accumulate                                   2.98                                3.2                   5.84%

         19/2/2019                600741                      HASCO                     ZJ                Accumulate                                  19.45                                 23                    18%

         21/2/2019                  0835         China Education Group                  TL                Accumulate                                  12.50                              13.45                   7.50%

         28/2/2019                  1044                     Hengan                     TK                      Buy                                   63.15                               77.5                   22.7%

          1/3/2019                  2020                 Anta Sports                    EZ                Accumulate                                   45.4                               50.8                    12%

          8/3/2019                  0696          Travelsky Technology                  TL                Accumulate                                  23.10                              17.18                   17.7%

         12/3/2019                  1211                        BYD                     ZJ                Accumulate                                  47.35                               56.3                    19%

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Week 12 - Phillip Singapore Weekly
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Paul Chew
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Head Of Research
                                                                                                                                                                      Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                            18 Mar 2019

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Week 12 – Short-term Views
                                      Macro Last Week
                                       SG macro: only retail sales saw 5% spike but affected by festive season
                                       US macro: Retail sales still surprisingly weak at 3% YoY rise in January (2018: +5.4%); Fed meeting
                                        focus will be on dot plots
                                       EU macro: German industrial production weak but retail and services PMI modest recovery

                                       Corporate/Sector Last Week
                                      •      SGX: MSCI-HKEX to launch MSCI China A futures (no launch date announced); SGX A50 is the only
                                             offshore product for A shares and A50 is 40% total volume; volume + cross margin + currency; Mar19
                                             quarter will be weak (Jan-Feb19 volume: Derivatives +2% YoY; Securities - 34% YoY)

                                      Tactical
                                       Short-term pause in rally: concerned of a possible near-term peak after negotiations between U.S.
                                        and China concluded; rally not supported by economic data but large discounting by the market
                                       Market rally once global data recovers; China stimulus – 3% pt VAT cut 1Apr19, reduce social security
                                        contribution 1May19; widen fiscal deficit; open to more RRR and interest rate cut; 6-6.65% GDP 2019
                                      Week(s) Ahead
                                       19-20Mar: FOMC meeting; 24Mar: Thailand Elections; 17Apr: Indonesia ;18May: s.232 auto tariff
                                        response; Other: Mueller investigations

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Week 12 – March will see a good rebound

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Ask questions!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Analysts
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Paul Chew, Head of Research

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Tara Wong, Property | REITs

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Natalie Ong, REITs

                                                                                                                                                                                                     Chen Guangzhi, Oil and Gas | Energy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Tin Min Ying, Banking & Finance

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Alvin Chia, Telco | Technology

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mike Zheng Jieyuan, China/HK Markets
                                               Have an opinion or questions on our reports?
                                               Post them in the comment section of the report!                                                                                                                          Edmund Xu, US Equity

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accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
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