DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting

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DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting
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        DWD’s Climate Services
        Observing – Modelling – Consulting
DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting
Foreword

Dear readers,

Climate change presents us with great challenges. Extreme weather events and changes in the
climate can cause humanitarian disasters and huge damage to the environment. Decision-makers
in politics, administration and business require meaningful information about the changing
climate and the climate of the future to be able to develop preventive measures against the
consequences of climate change. There is therefore demand for high spatial resolution information
as well as information for specific fields of action, such as water management and health.
The Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) regards the provision of climate information as a comprehen-
sive and user-oriented service. The DWD has the biggest climate data collection in the whole of
Germany and offers many years of experience in climate monitoring, climate modelling on
different space and timescales and model result evaluation. The DWD is also well networked with
other scientific institutions at the national and international level and ensures that customers are
given state-of-the-art scientific information.
Besides supplying data and information on various portals, a key aspect of our mission is
communicating directly with and providing consultancy services to our customers. This also helps
enhance users’ capability to use climate data in various areas of application. The DWD also assists
in the development of climate services in other countries, including, in particular, developing
countries.
All these activities take account of the elements for successful climate services recommended by
the Global Framework for Climate Services. Our aim in publishing this brochure is to provide a
readable overview of all the climate services provided by the DWD.

Dr. Paul Becker
Vice-President of the Deutscher Wetterdienst

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DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting
The challenge:
Learning to deal with climate change
Human activities contribute significantly to climate change. Long series of temperature measure-
ments depict a warming which, in global terms, affects Germany in particular. The DWD's climate
services help to adapt to climate change as well as possible.

Scientific evidence shows that we are living in an era     become an increasingly important cause of migratory
of climate change. The Earth has warmed by around          flows, which also affect us in Germany. As a complex
0.9°C and Germany even by 1.4°C since the end of the       global phenomenon climate change presents us with
19th century. Averaged over the whole of Germany,          numerous interrelated challenges.
the annual number of hot days on which temperatures
peak at 30°C or higher have increased since 1951           One of the answers: climate services
from three to nine days. Compared to the long-term         Stakeholders at all levels require precise information
average for the 1961 1990 period, both the number of       in order to plan and implement adaptation measures in
warm years and decadal average temperatures have           response to climate change. In this context, informa-
increased significantly, particularly in the last three    tion about past and future climate developments plays
decades.                                                   an important, supportive and in many cases decisive
                                                           role.
This is caused by human greenhouse-gas emissions.
Since the beginning of industrialisation, the concen-      In consequence of this, the Global Framework for Cli-
tration of carbon dioxide, which is the most important     mate Services (GFCS) was created in 2009 on the initi-
greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, has increased by         ative of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
over 40 percent.                                           at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC 3).

One of the greatest challenges of our time is limiting     The DWD participates through its climate services in
global warming. At the same time, we must also adjust      the national implementation of the GFCS. It has pro-
to ongoing and future climate change. This concerns        vided climate information for decades. Since WCC 3,
all areas of life, from agriculture and transport infra-   efforts have been intensified to improve forecasts
structure through to hotter urban climates in the sum-     and projections, research and modelling initiatives.
mer.                                                       The availability and quality of climate data have been
                                                           enhanced.
In addition, we must also help poorer countries to
develop climate expertise. Climate change will

                                                                                                               3
DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting
Climate services -
five elements for success
The DWD supplies information and expertise for the planning of climate preparedness measures
and runs the office of the Deutscher         Klimadienst (DKD)  –  both important contributions to
implementing the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (DAS).

The DWD's climate services are guided by the Global
Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). They com-
prise the following five components:

1. Climate monitoring
2. Climate modelling, forecasts, projections,
   climate impact assessment
3. Climate information and data platform
4. Communication with users
5. Building climate capacities through
   international activities.

Climate services involve the retrieval and provision
of high-quality observations for the most important
climate variables stored in national and internation-
al databases. In addition to parameters for the atmo-     Furthermore, information is provided about climate
sphere, oceanic and terrestrial parameters are also       developments in the future for all relevant time and
important.                                                spatial scales, but also about the user-oriented appli-
                                                          cation of such information. The information results
                                                          from models, forecasts and projections which take
                                                          account of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. It also
 Facts: Deutscher Wetterdienst                            includes risk and vulnerability analyses, evaluations
 •   Around 2300 employees                                and estimates of climate impacts in various areas.
 •   Headquarters in Offenbach, 6 branch offices          The information is presented using modern graphical
 •   5 regional climate offices providing                 tools, e.g. digital maps.
     consultancy services in the field of
     climate and environment                              Of particular importance is the provision of data as
 •   Available annual budget: around 190 million          well as communication and advisory services to users
     euros                                                and, linked to this, the building of know-how at their
     Annual productivity:                                 end to make more effective use of climate data for
 •   Around 14000 advisory statements and 		              various fields of action.
     expert reports
 •   Around 15000 climate monitoring products

                                 As of January 2018

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DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting
◂ Official launch of the Deutscher Klimadienst in
                                                                    October 2015 by (from right to left) Parliamentary
                                                                    State Secretary Peter Bleser (Federal Ministry of Food
                                                                    and Agriculture, BMEL), State Secretary Rainer
                                                                    Bomba (Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infra-
                                                                    structure, BMVI), Parliamentary State Secretary Rita
                                                                    Schwarzelühr-Sutter (Federal Ministry for the Environ-
                                                                    ment, Nature Conservation, Building, BMUB), Dr Paul
                                                                    Becker (DWD Vice-President) and Prof. Dr Gerhard
                                                                    Adrian (DWD President).

Networking with other public authorities
The DWD has joined forces with other public bodies,      The DWD's climate services play an important role in
institutions and organisations to provide climate        Germany’s national implementation of the GFCS. They
services as part of the Deutscher Klimadienst (DKD).     also make a substantial contribution to the implemen-
The DKD office is run by the DWD.                        tation of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Cli-
                                                         mate Change (Deutsche AnpassungsStrategie, DAS).
The aim of the DKD network is to provide sound
information for political, administrative and business   The DAS identifies 15 fields of action in which options
decision-makers with the aim of ensuring optimum         for adaptation to the impacts of climate change are
use of existing climate knowledge. This combination of   studied systematically. Examples of such fields of
know-how from different sources may be beneficial in     action are human health and water management.
various fields, such as crop protection in agriculture
and forestry.

                                                                                                                        5
DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting
Climate monitoring
Climate monitoring helps to understand the state of the climate system in the past, present and
future. Successful climate monitoring depends on an observing system providing good spatial
coverage and long series of meteorological measurement data. Technology has changed over
time. Where a ground-based observation network was adequate in the past, satellite and radar
remote sensing data are now as important as surface measurements. Data are measured, verified,
combined, evaluated and archived.

        The DWD operates Germany's densest
     meteorological and climatological observing
     network. Data acquired through it have been
           processed over many decades.

What data are measured and how?
DWD measurements focus on recording atmo-
spheric parameters, such as air temperature, pre-
cipitation, wind, air pressure, radiation and sunshine
duration. These are complemented by observations of
snow cover and albedo, forest fires, soil moisture and
phenology, such as the vegetation periods in the bio-
sphere. DWD surface stations are increasingly run
automatically. The measuring network also includes
aircraft measurements and shipboard measuring sites.
Radar and satellite remote sensing data are becoming
increasingly important as demand grows for informa-
tion with very high spatial resolution. Additional data
are derived from computer modelling to fill the tempo-
ral and spatial gaps existing in the data coverage.
                                                          ▴ Radar sites for the measurement of precipitation in Germany. Radar
Are the measurement data verified?                        measurements are made in radii of 150 km. The RADOLAN technique
                                                          combines radar data with data from automatic online precipitation
Data quality and compliance with recognised inter-
                                                          stations to obtain a better, more complete description of precipita-
national climate monitoring principles (e.g. GCOS
                                                          tion conditions.
Climate Monitoring Principles) are very important.
All the meteorological data recorded by the DWD are
checked for plausibility and completeness in several
steps. The DWD runs climate reference stations which                     DWD weather & climate observations
enable it to analyse and document impacts arising
                                                                         2 observatories
from the introduction of new sensors or observing
                                                                         182 staffed and automatic weather & climate stations
systems on the data records.
                                                                         18 weather radar sites
                                                                         Use of meteorological satellites
                                                                         9 upper-air stations
                                                                         4 radar wind profilers/RASS
                                                                         1761 precipitation measuring sites
                                                                         434 shipborne measuring stations
                                                                         4 marine upper-air stations
                                                                         1149 phenological observation sites
 6                                                                       				 As of January 2018
DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting
More precise and area covering analyses
                                                                        The measured values from surface stations and
                                                                        remote sensing systems are used together to
                                                                        provide a better picture of climatic phenomena.
                                                                        By combining data from various sources, the DWD
                                                                        strives to provide descriptions of climate develop-
                                                                        ments which are more accurate and geographically
                                                                        inclusive – in particular trends, deviations from
                                                                        long-term mean and extreme values. Re-analyses are
                                                                        an increasingly important source for this. This new
                                                                        approach deploys numerical weather models of the
                                                                        kind used for weather forecasts. The weather model
                                                                        enables millions of largely grid-point data to be
                                                                        converted into a comprehensive three-dimensional
                                                                        description of the state of the atmosphere at a
▴ Combination of different climate monitoring methods.                  particular point in time. Data sets such as these
                                                                        constitute an important information base for many
                                                                        fields of action, such as in the energy sector.

                                                                        The way in which the DWD evaluates such data also
                                                                        depends on the interests of users. The DWD passes
▸ Further information:
German Climate Observing Systems
                                                                        its data sets on to national and international climate
GCOS inventory report.                                                  observation networks while, at the same time, using
                                                                        information from cross-border data centres for
                                                                        analysis purposes.

                                                                        Examples of this are the European and global maps
                                                                        with solar radiation data from satellite-based climate
                                                                        monitoring for the planning of photovoltaic installa-
                                                                        tions. Another example is information about the future
                                                                        probability of extreme precipitation in Germany for
                                                                        flood protection planning and the construction
                                                                        industry.

▴ The DWD operates a high-performance computing system for
computation-intensive data processing, modelling and forecasting.

▸ The DWD's climate reference station at Hohenpeissenberg.
Measurements made at climate reference stations are used in the
DWD to compare the measuring equipment used (operationally) to
date and innovative, automatic sensors. This is important in order to
assure the quality of the DWD's climatological observation series and
to verify the impact of new measurement techniques on climato-
logical issues against the background of climate change. Climate
reference stations are representative for their geographic and clima-
tological environment.

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DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting
From the model to
climate impact evaluation
Early planning of measures to adapt to climate change requires information regarding future
climate changes. Statements about the climate of the future are made on the basis of climate
models which take account of the components of the climate system and the links and interactions
between them. Impact models simulate the influence of climate change on the environment.

                                                              The DWD publishes monthly and seasonal forecasts as
                                                             well as multi-decade climate projections. Seasonal and
                                                               decadal climate predictions cover periods which are
                                                              relevant for planners and decision-makers in politics,
                                                             business and society while remaining subject to intense
                                                                       research and ongoing development.

Climate predictions
Climate predictions compute the development of the
future climate within a timescale of weeks, months or
decades. Climate prediction models are based on his-
torical climate developments. Nonetheless, it is not
possible to capture the state of the climate system
perfectly, particularly as it is subject to chaotic behav-
iour. The uncertainty and reliability of climate pre-
dictions are quantified by generating an ensemble of
solutions with slightly varying initial conditions. This
results in different predictions for the relevant peri-
od in the future. The evaluation of such an ensemble
enables conclusions to be drawn about the spread and         ▴ Temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 Region)
probability of occurrence of climatic events.                relative to 1981–2010. While the median model results predict an El
                                                             Niño event, the "plume" illustrates the spread of the results from the
Climate projections                                          GCFS ensemble members.
                                                             Source: www.dwd.de/seasonalforecasts
Climate projections compute impacts on the future
climate from periods of several decades to over 100
years using ‘scenarios’. These scenarios, which reach        The model calculations take account of the impact of
from a climate mitigation scenario (RCP2.6) through          various greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate.
to a scenario of unchecked and unchanged economic            The range of results for each scenario can be shown
growth (the business-as-usual scenario, RCP8.5), are         by using multiple results from different models, known
based on different assumptions regarding future              as a "multi-model ensemble".
global economic developments.

                                                             ▸ Further information: DWD brochure ‘
                                                             Climate predictions and climate projections’
                                                             www.dwd.de/climateforecastsandprojections

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DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting
Regional climate models
Climate models simulate the physical processes in the       The DWD also develops and runs regional climate
climate system on a three-dimensional grid. The spa-         models for projections as well as impact models
tial resolution is given by the distance between the        for investigating specific practice-related issues.
grid points. With more than 100 km, global models              This takes place in close co-operation with
are coarse. For this reason, regional climate models             partners in research and science and in
with a higher spatial resolution (1–20 km) are used to       accordance with the needs of numerous users.
describe the different regional characteristics of cli-
mate change. This enables different landscapes to be
captured more accurately.

Impact models and climate impact evaluations
The findings obtained from regionalisation can be
used in so-called impact models to analyse the possi-
ble effects of climate change at the local level and for
specific sectors.

Impact models allow, for example, the computation
of biometeorological, urban climate and agricultural
parameters.

Numerous parameters for agriculture, forestry and
soil protection can be derived from the standard
parameters such as air temperature and precipitation
totals. This helps to identify the potentials and risks
for agriculture. These include, for example, changes in
the water budget, growth conditions and pest poten-
tials.

In the field of medicine and health, impact models can
be used to evaluate present and future human stress-
es. The objective is to protect risk groups by providing
forecasts and warnings relating to heat, cold, UV radi-
ation, pollen flight or fine particles.

Urban climate models also play a role in this context.
They show, for example, thermal stresses in cities and     ▴ Wiesbaden-Mainz region: Annual mean number of hot days in the
provide information about the increase in summer           period 1971–2000 (left) and the median of an ensemble of 17 climate
                                                           projections for the anticipated number of hot days per year in the
days, hot days and tropical nights to be expected in
                                                           period 2031–2060 (right). These results were obtained by applying
the distant future.
                                                           the high-resolution urban climate model MUKLIMO_3. Hot days have
                                                           a maximum temperature of at least 30 °C.

                                                                                                                           9
DWD's Climate Services - Observing - Modelling - Consulting
The portals
The DWD's high-quality climate information and data platforms lay the foundations for
efficient climate services. The DWD offers easy access to climate data and understandably
prepared information through various online portals. The Deutscher Wetterdienst Act and
international arrangements allow most of the climate data and information to be made
available for free.

Important climate information from public bodies
The KliVO portal provides background information
and services for the implementation of the German
Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change. Appro-
priate climate preparedness services (climate infor-
mation from the DWD and other authorities as well
as services designed to support adaptation to cli-
mate change) can be filtered and selected on this por-
tal according to individual needs. Selection options
                                                                 www.klivoportal.de
include groups of users, steps in the climate change

planning cycle, climate variables and climate impacts.

How can I access the data directly?
The DWD's Climate Data Center (CDC) provides open
access to a wide variety of measured and derived cli-
mate data. It provides observations from the DWD's
observing network as well as, for example, radar
and satellite-based products or observations of plant
growth phases and international data. The DWD is
continuously expanding the range of data it offers on
the CDC. One key focus is on opening up the DWD’s
entire wealth of historical data back to the early days
of observations by digitising the records.

The data collections can be accessed via an interac-
tive portal or via direct technical interfaces. In addi-
tion, the DWD is continuing to develop further access
options through modern technical interfaces such as,
for example, Geo Web Services.
                                                                  www.dwd.de/cdc
.

 10
Climate data well illustrated
                                   The DWD's German Climate Atlas is an information
                                   platform which offers climate data in user-friend-
                                   ly formats. The data can easily be navigated and are
                                   regularly updated. The Climate Atlas portal contains
                                   a huge amount of information on climate change.

                                   Among other things, the DWD shows possible scenar-
                                   ios for future climate development together with the
                                   earlier and current climate. Comparisons between
                                   past, current and future climate conditions clear-
                                   ly show to what extent mean climate parameters
                                   have changed already and in what direction they are
                                   expected to change in the future. Regional differences
                                   are shown in maps. Results from an ensemble of cli-
                                   mate models are used to show the range of potential
                                   climate changes.
www.dwd.de/germanclimateatlas.de

                                   Joint portal of German climate service providers
                                   The DWD operates the German Climate Portal as a
                                   network of over 40 other institutions. This portal sup-
                                   ports the nationwide networking of climate service
                                   providers with users of climate information from the
                                   federal states, various sectors and branches of indus-
                                   try. The German Climate Portal provides access to the
                                   combined climate expertise of its partners.

 www.deutsches-klimaportal.de

                                   What else is there?
                                   The DWD also provides a multitude of different
       www.dwd.de/inkas            information and services relating to climate and
                                   environment on its website at www.dwd.de/climate,
www.dwd.de/nationalclimatereport
                                   both for the general public and for professional users
    www.dwd.de/agriculture         in the fields of politics, administration, business,
                                   education and science.
    www.dwd.de/solarenergy

 www.dwd.de/seasonalforecasts

     (Selection of short links)

                                                 www.dwd.de/climate

                                                                                      11
Communication and
advice

Besides providing climate data and information on the online platforms presented in this brochure,
the DWD also communicates with various users and professional customers on individual
climatological issues. The DWD’s Climate Offices offer personal advice at various locations.

   As Germany's national meteorological service,      Who are our customers?
the DWD holds a unique archive of climate data and    The DWD provides climate services for various groups
  has decades of experience in the field of applied   of customers. Important users include public authori-
 meteorology and climatology. It is also integrated   ties and other agencies and bodies of the German
     in all important national and international      Federation and the federal states. These include
    scientific networks. It brings its established    in particular authorities and institutions actively
  expertise to bear on its climate consultancy and    engaged in the German Strategy for Adaptation to
         advisory services for policy-makers.         Climate Change. They conduct planning projects in
                                                      various sectors, such as developing the transport
                                                      infrastructure or flood and coastal protection. Pur-
                                                      suant to its statutory mandate the DWD supports the
                                                      Federation, federal states and local authorities in
                                                      theirs civil, disaster and environmental protection
                                                      tasks.

                                                      Business and industry – particularly those branch-
                                                      es which are especially affected by climate change,
                                                      such as agriculture and forestry, the health sector, air
                                                      pollution control, transport and construction, water
                                                      management and energy – all have a great need for
                                                      climate information. In addition, players involved in
                                                      urban and regional planning, education, science and
                                                      justice as well as the media and the general public are
                                                      also interested in the DWD's climate services.

                                                      Meeting the need for different types of information
                                                      The DWD's expert and consulting activities vary
                                                      depending on the topics under focus in the political
                                                      and business context. The DWD is able to draw on a
                                                      variety of climate data and information sources,
                                                      mobilise interdisciplinary expertise and provide
                                                      valuable and useful information as well as recommen-
                                                      dations for action.

 12
Parameters relevant to specific fields of action on var-
ious time and spatial scales are obtained from the
available basic data about the atmosphere, ocean and
land surface and communicated to planners and deci-
sion-makers in politics and business.

The DWD initiates special studies in partnership with
cities in order, for example, to illustrate the chang-
es in heat stress which climate change is expected to
cause or to detect small-scale wind systems.

Use of flexible communication channels
The DWD provides general and ready-for-use informa-
tion and statistics for the public at large and profes-
sional users on the websites and platforms already
referred to. Users can also access specific technical
publications on the DWD website at www.dwd.de. The
DWD's online services are rounded off by contribu-
tions in social media (e.g. Twitter @DWD_klima) and
                                                           ▸ DWD customers include
heat warning and pollen flight apps.                       cities and local authorities as
                                                           well as players and planners
The DWD's services also include climatological prod-       from various sectors and
ucts and advisory services tailored to customers'          branches.
specific requirements. Besides face-to-face commu-
nication and on-site consulting, the DWD also holds
conferences, colloquiums and workshops which play
an important role in publicising the services it pro-
vides. The communication of know-how is especially
important in this context as it enables users to inter-
pret climate data correctly and use them in their spe-
cial area of work.

On-site climate and environment consultancy
The individual consulting services provided by the
DWD's Climate Offices is a central climate service.
In addition to the Central Climate Office in Offen-
bach, customer-oriented climate and environmental
consultancy is also offered by the Regional Climate
Offices in Hamburg, Essen, Freiburg, Munich and
Potsdam.

Specific consultancy services are available in the
fields of air hygiene and human biometeorology
(provided by DWD’s Branch Office in Freiburg)
and agrometeorology (provided by DWD’s Branch
Offices in Braunschweig and Weihenstephan). The
headquarters in Offenbach and the Branch Office
Berlin-Buch are responsible for hydrometeorologi-          ▴ Climate and environment consultancy location map.
cal consulting.                                             Contact data are provided on pages 18–19.
                                                           .

                                                                                                                 13
Expansion of global
climate competence
Climate change is global. International collaboration is mutually beneficial. Developing countries
in particular are massively affected by climate change. The DWD is helping these countries to set
up their own climate services.

Specific capabilities and know-how are required for      There is a demand for modern climate services in
  the development and professional use of climate        many countries – not only in developing countries,
 services. The DWD has built up important capaci-        notably in Africa, but also in emerging economies in
ties in the fields of climate observation and climate    Asia, South America and Eastern Europe. The DWD
monitoring, climate predictions and climate projec-      helps these countries to acquire climate expertise and
 tions, impact models, assessment of model results       to build up and expand their climate service capaci-
 and consulting for various user sectors. The DWD        ties.
also supports the establishment and development of
 climate services at the international level through     This support initially concentrates on establishing a
 technical infrastructure, its participation in inter-   functioning meteorological observing system and the
   national bodies and networks and collaboration        associated data management and on providing opera-
              with developing countries.                 tional support. The second step is to build up climate
                                                         services, including producing forecasts and climate
                                                         diagnoses for special areas of application.

 14
Examples of development co-operation projects

                                                                        SASSCAL - Southern African Science Service Cen-
                                                                        tre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Manage-
                                                                        ment
                                                                        In the SASSCAL project funded by the Federal
                                                                        Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the
                                                                        DWD has helped set up a regional climate compe-
                                                                        tence centre in southern Africa. The co-operation
                                                                        focused primarily on the installation of database
▴ Village in Lesotho, southern Africa
                                                                        systems for climate data for the meteorological
                                                                        services in Angola, Botswana and Zambia. One
                                                                        important aspect of the project was securing his-
Development co-operation activities                                     torical records of climate data and their applica-
                                                                        tion-oriented processing.
The DWD has helped to set up and expand meteo-
rological services in developing countries over many                    IKI-CSI – Improved Climate Services for Infrastruc-
years. Training events at the national and interna-                     ture Investments
tional levels as well as the training of guest scientists
                                                                        The CSI project is part of the International Climate
and special funding projects in which DWD is a part-
                                                                        Initiative (IKI) of the Federal Ministry for the Envi-
ner all play an important role.
                                                                        ronment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
                                                                        (BMU). It is run by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für
A key focus of current development co-operation is on
                                                                        Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ) and
the two projects IKI-CSI and PrAda. In the past, the
                                                                        involves 13 developing countries. The DWD is a
DWD has participated in the SASSCAL project (fur-
                                                                        co-operation partner. The project supports the
ther information right). For example, the DWD has
                                                                        ‘Climate Services’ provided by meteorological ser-
also trained scientists from South America in agrome-
                                                                        vices and public authorities to help handle climate
teorology or African scientists in seasonal forecasting.
                                                                        risks and infrastructure planning.
Similar fellowships are also possible for the training
in satellite-based climate monitoring.                                  PrAda – Adaptation of Agricultural Value Chains to
                                                                        Climate Change
                                                                        A co-operation project with the DWD is under
                                                                        preparation for the PrAda project which is being
                                                                        carried out by the GIZ on behalf of the Feder-
                                                                        al Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Devel-
                                                                        opment (BMZ). Capacities for the collection and
                                                                        processing of agrometeorological data are to be
                                                                        developed in co-operation with the national mete-
                                                                        orological service of Madagascar, DGM. The aim is
                                                                        to help the DGM by providing it with adapted agro-
                                                                        meteorological models and support for the produc-
                                                                        tion of seasonal forecasts and evaluation of climate
                                                                        projections for specific agricultural purposes. The
                                                                        purpose of these activities is to improve access
                                                                        to agrometeorological and agronomic consultan-
                                                                        cy services. It is anticipated that this support will
▴ Agriculture in Madagascar. Agriculture is an important livelihood     increase the performance of players in Madagas-
activity for a large part of the population of the island state of      car in selected agricultural value chains which are
Madagascar, which is why it is particularly vulnerable to the effects
                                                                        especially vulnerable to climate change.
of climate change.

                                                                                                                           15
Results from climate projections
for Germany
Anticipated changes in the future climate can be described using climate models and on the basis
of scenarios. For this reason, the DWD produces new climate projections at regular intervals with
updated scenarios and improved models.

Future temperature changes
A further increase in temperatures in Germany can                   the century. On the basis of the climate mitigation
almost certainly be expected. The modelled increase                 scenario which focuses on emissions reduction, an
in near-surface temperature for the 2021–2050 time                  increase in temperature of 1.2 °C may be expected.
period ranges from approx. 1.1 °C to 1.5 °C compared                Warming under the conditions of the business-as-usu-
with the 1971–2000 reference period. The difference                 al scenario is projected around 4.0 °C, with the range
between the changes projected for the various cli-                  of results varying between 2.8 °C and 5.2 °C. This
mate scenarios (from a moderate emissions scenario,                 would mean considerable risks for the environment.
i.e. the climate mitigation scenario RCP2.6, through to
the business-as-usual scenario RCP8.5) is still small.              It is expected that this projected mean warming will
                                                                    be accompanied by a change in the extreme values
Modelled temperature changes through to the end of                  pattern.
the century show clear differences from the middle of

Seasonal mean temperature in Germany and expected changes

Period                          1971-2000              2021-2050             2021-2050            2071-2100           2071-2100

Scenario                                      Climate mitigation     Business-as-usual    Climate mitigation   Business-as-usual

Spring                               8.1 °C               +0.9 °C               +1.3 °C              +1.0 °C             +3.3 °C

Summer                              16.6 °C               +1.1 °C               +1.6 °C              +1.3 °C             +4.2 °C

Autumn                               8.7 °C               +1.2 °C               +1.7 °C              +1.1 °C             +4.2 °C

Winter                               0.8 °C               +1.2 °C               +1.5 °C              +1.4 °C             +4.1 °C

Year                                 8.6 °C               +1.1 °C               +1.5 °C              +1.2 °C             +4.0 °C

Data sources: DWD (past), EURO-CORDEX + ReKliEs-De Ensemble (future, as of 31.12.2017)

 16
Changes in precipitation in the future                              Seasonal variations
A significant change in mean annual total precipita-                While the projected mean warming is similar for all
tion in the periods 2021–2050 and 2071-2100 is not                  seasons, more recent model calculations show strong
expected for Germany. An increase in mean annual                    differences in seasonal precipitation. Increases in win-
precipitation of 2 % is projected for the period 2021-              ter precipitation of +6 % to +7 % are projected for the
2050. There are no recognisable differences between                 short-range 2021–2050 planning horizon. Precipitation
the scenarios. When looking at the business-as-usu-                 is expected to decrease by -4 % to -5 % in summer.
al scenario, the projections also show only a small                 The longer-term 2071–2100 planning horizon and the
change in annual precipitation in Germany over the                  business-as-usual scenario entail a pronounced reduc-
long-term period 2071–2100, although the results of                 tion in precipitation -14 % in summer and an increase
each of the individual model calculations vary very                 of 16 % during the winter months.
strongly between –22 % and +26 %.

Seasonal mean precipitation in Germany and expected changes

Period                          1971-2000              2021-2050             2021-2050            2071-2100           2071-2100

Scenario                                      Climate mitigation     Business-as-usual    Climate mitigation   Business-as-usual

Spring                             179 mm                    +5%                   +5%                 +3%                 +6%

Summer                             234 mm                     -4%                   -5%                 -4%                -14%

Autumn                             191 mm                    +1%                   +2%                 +1%                  +1%

Winter                             183 mm                    +6%                    +7%                +3%                +16%

Year                               788 mm                    +2%                   +2%                   0%                 +1%

Data sources: DWD (past), EURO-CORDEX + ReKliEs-De Ensemble (future, as of 31.12.2017)

  The DWD advises and supports the users of
  climate data on issues relating to adaptation to climate change.

  Our services comprise:
  •    Consultancy services on all issues relating to climate change
  •    Statistical evaluation of climate data
  •    Provision of climate data and products
       (for example through the DWD Climate Data Center)
  Related inquiries can be sent by e-mail to the DWD's Central Climate Office
  at: klima.offenbach@dwd.de

                                                                                                                             17
Presence throughout the country
                        Our contacts and regional offices

Deutscher Wetterdienst                              Bremen, Hamburg, Lower Saxony, Schleswig-
Climate and Environment Consultancy                 Holstein, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania,
                                                    abroad and oceans:

                                                    Regionales Klimabüro Hamburg
                                                    Postfach 30 11 90
                                                    20304 Hamburg
                                                       0 69 / 80 62 - 60 22
                                                      klima.hamburg@dwd.de

                                                                      Berlin, Brandenburg, Saxony,
                                                                      Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia:

                                          Hamburg                     Regionales Klimabüro Potsdam
                                                                      Güterfelder Damm 87-91
                                                                      14532 Stahnsdorf
                                                           Berlin
                                                                         0 69 / 80 62 - 54 44
North-Rhine-Westphalia,      Essen
                                                                        klima.potsdam@dwd.de
Hesse, Rhineland-Palati-
nate, Saarland

Regionales Klimabüro Essen
Wallneyer Straße 10                                                   Bavaria
                                            Offenbach
45133 Essen                                                           Regionales Klimabüro München
   0 69 / 80 62 - 68 88                                               Postfach 20 06 20
  klima.essen@dwd.de                                                  80006 München
                                                        München          0 69 / 80 62 - 92 25
                                     Freibung
                                                                        klima.muenchen@dwd.de

Germany, nationwide:                                Baden-Württemberg

Zentrales Klimabüro                                 Regionales Klimabüro Freiburg
Frankfurter Straße 135                              Stefan-Meier-Straße 4
63067 Offenbach                                     79104 Freiburg
   0 69 / 80 62 - 29 12                                0 69 / 80 62 - 96 03
  klima.offenbach@dwd.de                              klima.freiburg@dwd.de

18
Agrometeorology             Hydrometeorology            Human biometeo-           Deutscher Klima-
                                                        rology                    dienst (DKD)

Agrarmeteorology            Hydrometeorology            Research Centre Human     DKD Geschäftsstelle
Frankfurter Straße 135      Frankfurter Straße 135      Biometeorology            Frankfurter Straße 135
63067 Offenbach             63067 Offenbach             Stefan-Meier-Straße 4     63067 Offenbach
   0 69 / 80 62 - 23 01        0 69 / 80 62 - 29 80     79104 Freiburg              gs.dkd@dwd.de
  lw.offenbach@dwd.de         hydromet@dwd.de              0 69 / 80 62 - 96 30
                                                          mm.freiburg@dwd.de
Agrometeorological
                            Branch Office Berlin-Buch
Research Centre
                            Lindenberger Weg 24
Bundesallee 50
                            13125 Berlin
38116 Braunschweig
                               0 69 / 80 62 - 55 70
   0 531 / 2 52 05 - 39
                              hydromet.be@dwd.de
  lw.braunschweig@dwd.de

Branch Office
Weihenstephan
Alte Akademie Nr. 16
Weihenstephaner Berg
85354 Freising
   0 8161 / 5 37 69 - 0
  lw.weihenstephan@dwd.de

                                                                                                    19
Air temperature | Annual average temperature anomalies in
                                                                              Germany for 1881–2017 relative to the 1961–1990 base period

                                                                              Graphical representation per decade: number of warm years
                                                                              and decadal averages have risen significantly in the last 3
                                                                              decades in particular.

                                                                              Each little map shows the mean temperature anomaly for the corres-
                                                                              ponding year, shades of blue for annual means below, shades of red for
                                                                              values above the long-term averages.

                                                                              The bars show the decadal averages of temperature anomalies, narrow
                                                                              bars for small and wide bars for large anomalies. The colour indicates
                                                                              the direction of the temperature anomaly.

Publishing details
Text, editing and layout: Central Climate Office

Picture credits:

DWD: 2, 5 top, 14; 5 bottom, 13 bottom (Michael Kügler), 7 (Ulf Köhler)
Fotolia.de: 18 top (Christian Malsch), 19 top 2nd from right (Makuba)
MEV: 18/19 (Jonas Krüger); Panthermedia.net: 12 top (weerapat), middle
(Thomas Kakalik), bottom (Klaus Raab), 13 top (Ikonoklast), middle
(Monika Wendorf), 18 bottom left (Dominik Zwingmann)
Piqs: 19 top left (M. Oelhaf); Pixabay: 2, 15 top, 15 bottom, 16,
17 left, 17 right, 19 top 2nd from left, 19 bottom right

Graphic credits: DWD (unless otherwise specified)

Deutscher Wetterdienst
                                                                                                                                                       DWD 1. Auflage 200/ 09.18

Geschäftsbereich Klima und Umwelt
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                                                                    Go to www.dwd.de to access our
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