Economic Impacts of Natural Hazards on Vulnerable Populations in VANUATU

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Economic Impacts of Natural Hazards on Vulnerable Populations in VANUATU
Economic Impacts of Natural
Hazards on Vulnerable Populations
                     in VANUATU
Contents

    List of abbreviations                        ii

    Executive summary                            1

1
    Hazard and exposure                          2
     1.1. Overview of risks                      2
     1.2. Cyclones                               5
     1.3. Earthquakes and tsunamis               7
     1.4. Volcanoes                              7
     1.5. Droughts                               8

2   Vulnerability and impacts
     2.1. Economic profile
     2.2. Agriculture and fisheries
                                                 9
                                                 9
                                                10
     2.3. Tourism                               11
     2.4. Commerce and industry                 12
     2.5. Housing and settlements               12
     2.6. Low-income and informal workers       13
     2.7. Gender                                15
     2.8. Youth                                 19

3
    Coping mechanisms                           22
     3.1. Types of coping mechanisms            22
     3.2. Adaptive social protection            22
     3.3. Remittances                           24
     3.4. Financial inclusion                   26
     3.5. Insurance                             27
     3.6. Migration and relocation              28
     3.7. Community-based support               30

4
    Conclusions                                 32
     4.1. Hazard, exposure, and vulnerability   32
     4.2. Coping mechanisms                     33

    References                                  36

                                                      i
List of abbreviations
     ADB		       Asian Development Bank

     CRED		      Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

     CSIRO		     Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

     EM-DAT      Emergency Events Database

     ESCAP		     Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

     GDP		       Gross Domestic Product

     GFDRR		     Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

     GIZ		       Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit

     IASC		 Inter-Agency Standing Committee Reference Group on Risk, Early Warning and
     		Preparedness

     IDMC		      Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre

     IFRC		      International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

     ILO		       International Labour Organization

     IMF		       International Monetary Fund

     INFORM      Index for Risk Management

     MSME		      Micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises

     NDMO		      National Disaster Management Office (Vanuatu)

     OCHA		      United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

     OECD		      Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

     PCRAFI		    Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative

     SPC		       Secretariat of the Pacific Community

     TC		        Tropical Cyclone

     UNDP		      United Nations Development Programme

     UNDRR		     United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

     UNFPA		     United Nations Population Fund

     UNICEF		    United Nations Childrens’ Fund

     USD		       United States dollar

     VUV		       Vanuatu vatu (unit of currency)

     WASH		      Water, Sanitation and Hygiene

     WFP		       World Food Programme

     WTO		       World Trade Organization

ii
Executive summary
Vanuatu is highly exposed to natural hazards,        Support systems that can help poor and
with cyclones regularly damaging property and        disadvantaged populations cope with the impacts of
causing long-term cumulative economic harm.          natural hazards include:
Tropical cyclones, with associated storm surges
                                                     • Social protection systems that can rapidly adapt
and flooding, are the principal hazard affecting
                                                       in crisis situations can support the immediate
Vanuatu, but the country is also exposed to
                                                       needs of affected people as well as longer-term
earthquakes and tsunamis, volcanoes, and
                                                       reconstruction. Vanuatu has very limited social
droughts. Climate change is expected to
                                                       protection systems in place but has undertaken
exacerbate weather-related hazards.
                                                       some small-scale pilot projects in partnership with
Vanuatu’s relatively small economy, dominated          international agencies.
by tourism and subsistence agriculture, is highly    • Remittances contribute to poverty reduction,
vulnerable to natural hazards. Tourism is nature-      wealth creation, social protection, and economic
based and dependent on coastal and inland              growth in many countries. In Vanuatu, remittances
ecosystems which are vulnerable to damage              are low compared with regional peers, but are rising
from natural hazards. Agriculture is vulnerable        and becoming an increasingly important source of
to damage from cyclones and droughts, and              income and protection for households.
the majority of the population of Vanuatu relies
                                                     • Financial inclusion can be a significant contributor
heavily on subsistence agriculture for livelihoods
                                                       to development, poverty reduction, and disaster
and food security. Climate change is expected
                                                       resilience. Financial inclusion currently plays a
to adversely affect agriculture through
                                                       limited role in disaster resilience in Vanuatu, as
increased frequency of extreme weather
                                                       the economy is very much cash-based and there
events, sea level rise, and disruption of aquatic
                                                       is limited familiarity with and uptake of financial
ecosystems.
                                                       services.
Natural hazards disproportionately affect poor       • Insurance can be an important tool for managing
people, workers in the informal economy,               risks associated with natural hazards, but insurance
women, and youths. Poor people tend to                 is not widely available or commonly used in
be more exposed to hazards than wealthier              Vanuatu. The majority of people and businesses
people, are more severely affected by hazards,         have no insurance protection, and coverage
and have fewer resources available to them             against natural hazards is difficult to obtain.
to cope when disasters do occur. Poverty             • Migration, both internally and internationally, can
is a significant issue in Vanuatu, although            support development and disaster resilience.
there is a lack of recent data to confirm the          Vanuatu currently has low levels of emigration,
current situation, and the country has high            but has been an increasingly active participant in
levels of informal and vulnerable employment           seasonal worker programs in the region. Relocation
and subsistence economic activity. Gender              of settlements at risk of natural hazards has been
inequality is a significant challenge, and women       undertaken in several instances and Vanuatu is
and girls are often excluded from decision-            seen as a leader in developing appropriate policies
making roles, limited in economic opportunities,       on this issue.
and suffer high levels of gender-based violence.
                                                     • Community-based support mechanisms are a
Youths are affected by disruption to education
                                                       common way for communities to manage risk,
caused by natural hazards and from a shortage
                                                       especially in rural and poor communities. Vanuatu
of employment opportunities which is due in
                                                       has very strong traditions of community support,
part to the effects of natural hazards.
                                                       and has resources of traditional knowledge and
                                                       traditional governance structures that greatly
                                                       enhance disaster resilience.

                                                                                                              1
1. Hazard and exposure
    1.1. Overview of risks
    Pacific island countries are widely regarded                    Tropical cyclones and earthquakes are the
    as experiencing the highest risks associated                    principal hazards affecting Vanuatu, although
    with natural hazards in the world due to their                  the country is also exposed to volcanoes,
    high exposure to a variety of hazards, their                    tsunamis, and droughts. Vanuatu is located in
    geographical remoteness, and their dispersion                   an area known for the frequent occurrence
    across a large area (ADB [Asian Development                     of tropical cyclones with damaging winds,
    Bank], 2018, p. 2; World Bank, 2017a, p.                        rains, and storm surge (PCRAFI, 2011, p. 3). It
    81). Across the region, hydrological and                        is also located on the Pacific “Ring of Fire”,
    meteorological events cause the majority of                     placing it at risk of earthquakes and tsunamis
    economic losses, with cyclones being the most                   (PCRAFI, 2011, p. 3), which are rare, but can
    serious hazard, while geo-hazards are the major                 be extremely damaging when they do occur.
    cause of human loss (Utz, 2017, p. 81).                         The effects of climate change in Vanuatu by
                                                                    the end of this century are expected to include
    Vanuatu is ranked as the most hazardous
                                                                    continued El Niño and La Niña events, rising
    country in the world by WorldRiskIndex on the
                                                                    annual mean temperatures and maximum daily
    basis of its high exposure to natural hazards
                                                                    temperatures, continued ocean acidification
    and relatively low coping capacity (Day et al.,
                                                                    and increased coral bleaching, continued sea
    2019). An International Monetary Fund (IMF)
                                                                    level rise, and slightly decreased frequency of
    study estimates that Vanuatu has a 57% chance
                                                                    cyclone formation but increased maximum
    of suffering a significant1 disaster related to
                                                                    wind speeds (Australian Bureau of Meteorology
    natural hazards each year (Lee et al., 2018,
                                                                    and CSIRO [Commonwealth Scientific and
    p. 7). The Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment
                                                                    Industrial Research Organisation], 2014, pp.
    and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) estimates that
                                                                    320–339).
    cyclones, earthquakes, and tsunamis cause
    average annual damage and losses equivalent
    to 6.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and
    that within the next 50 years, Vanuatu has a 50%
    chance of experiencing a loss due to cyclones,
    earthquakes, or tsunamis valued at more
    than 45% of GDP, and a 10% chance of a loss
    exceeding 74% of GDP (PCRAFI, 2011, pp. 1, 5).

    1
        This analysis was based on the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), which counts disasters involving 10 or more deaths,
        100 or more people affected, the declaration of a state of emergency, or a call for international assistance.

2
Different agencies, using different                            Figure 1: Natural Hazard Forecasts
methodologies, provide different assessments of
                                                                              WorldRiskReport
risk for Vanuatu.
                                                                                                    Risk
                                                                                                                  Risk quintile
                                                                                                    score
• WorldRiskReport ranks Vanuatu as the most
                    2

  hazardous country in the world due to high                          Exposure                      99.88         Very high
  exposure to natural hazards and lack of
  coping capacities. The ranking process uses                         Vulnerability                 56.78         High
  27 indicators and assigns countries scores
  ranging from 0 (least risk) to 100 (greatest risk)                  Susceptibility                35.32         High

  (Day et al., 2019, pp. 44, 56).                                     Lack of coping
                                                                                                    84.36         High
                                                                      capacity
• INFORM (Index for Risk Management)          3
                                                                      Lack of adaptive
  assesses the relative risk of countries                                                           50.66         High
                                                                      capacity
  experiencing humanitarian crises, taking into
                                                                                                                  (Day et al., 2019)
  account exposure to hazards, vulnerability
  of the population, and coping capacity.                                     INFORM
  INFORM ranks Vanuatu joint 50th (tied with
  Tonga) out of 191 countries on exposure to                                                   Epidemic
                                                            Natural hazards

  natural hazards, meaning that approximately                                                    Drought
  one quarter of the countries of the world                                             Tropical cyclone
  have higher risk. It considers Vanuatu to have                                                 Tsunami
  particularly high risks of tsunamis, earthquakes,                                                 Flood
                                                                                             Earthquake
  and cyclones, and a low risk of flood and
  drought (IASC [Inter-Agency Standing
                                                            Overall risk

                                                                               Lack of coping capacity
  Committee Reference Group on Risk, Early                                                  Vulnerability
  Warning and Preparedness], 2020).                                           Natural hazard & exposure
• ThinkHazard4      provides an overview of                                                                 Low                   High

  natural hazards at national and local levels.                                                  Relative risk compared with other
                                                                                                                countries worldwide
  It considers Vanuatu to have a high risk
                                                                                                                       (IASC, 2020)
  of flooding in urban and coastal areas,
  geophysical hazards, and cyclones (GFDRR                                    ThinkHazard
  [Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and
  Recovery], 2020).                                                                             Urban flood
                                                                                                                    Tsunami
                                                                                                Coastal flood
                                                                      High risk                                     Volcano
                                                                                                Earthquake
• The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre                                                   Landslide
                                                                                                                    Cyclone
  (IDMC)5 models the risk of future population
                                                                      Medium risk               Extreme heat
  displacements, and projects the greatest risks
  for Vanuatu to be related to cyclones and                                                     River flood
                                                                      Very low risk                                 Wildfire
                                                                                                Water scarcity
  storm surge (IDMC, 2019).
                                                                                                                     (GFDRR, 2020)

                                                                              Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
2
  Developed by Ruhr University Bochum and Bündnis 		           Average expected number of displacements per year
  Entwicklung Hilft.
3
  Developed by the Inter-Agency Standing Committee                    Cyclonic wind                 2,134
  Reference Group on Risk, Early Warning and Preparedness
  and the European Commission.                                        Storm surge                   1,125
4
  Developed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction             Earthquake                    417
  and Recovery (GFDRR) managed by the World Bank.
5
  Part of the Norwegian Refugee Council, a humanitarian               Tsunami                       1
  non-governmental organization.
                                                                                                                      (IDMC, 2019)

                                                                                                                                         3
Agencies that record past disasters agree that                  Figure 2: Historical Disasters
    cyclones have caused the greatest economic
                                                                       EM-DAT: Damage, 1990-2020
    losses in Vanuatu. DesInventar6 and EM-DAT7
    (Emergency Events Database) are the two                               Volcanic activity
    main global datasets of disasters related to                                  Tsunami
    natural hazards. They use different inclusion                                Cyclone
    criteria, data sources, and reporting practices,                                 Flood
    so they are not necessarily comparable. In                                Earthquake
    particular, DesInventar includes significantly                                Drought
    more events than EM-DAT, especially high-                                                   0              250              500
    frequency, low-impact events; EM-DAT tends                                                       Damage in million USD
    to show lower estimates of impacts and to lack                                                                    (CRED, 2020)
    estimates of damages in smaller countries;
    data collection practices in both datasets                         DesInventar: Losses, 1990-2020
    appear to vary from one country to another
    and may not always be comparable between                                        Drought
                                                                                   Volcano
    countries; and both datasets appear to cover
                                                                               Storm (local)
    flooding inadequately (Edmonds & Noy, 2018,
                                                                                Storm surge
    pp. 482–484). For Vanuatu, both datasets
                                                                                  Landslide
    agree that cyclones are the hazards that have
                                                                                    Tsunami
    caused the most damage or loss, although                                    Earthquake
    they differ slightly regarding the number of                                       Flood
    events and magnitude of damage or loss that                                    Cyclone
    they record (CRED [Centre for Research on the                                 Epidemic
    Epidemiology of Disasters], 2020; UNDRR [United                                             0                               100
    Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction],                                                       Losses in million USD
    2020). PCRAFI has also compiled a database                                                                       (UNDRR, 2020)
    cataloguing more than 600 disasters across
    15 countries in the region (PCRAFI, 2013, pp.                      PCRAFI: number of recorded disasters
    53–57). Of the 82 events recorded for Vanuatu,                    Tropical cyclone                    50
    almost all were cyclones (50) or earthquakes                      Earthquake                          26
    (26); no tsunamis or storm surges were recorded                   Flood                               3
    (PCRAFI, 2013, p. 57).                                            Severe local storm                  2
                                                                      Landslide                           1
                                                                      Storm surge                         0
                                                                      Tsunami                             0
                                                                                                            (PCRAFI, 2013, p. 57)

    6
      Operated by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), drawing on data from partners around the
      world; data for the Pacific region are provided by the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC).
    7
      Operated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the Catholic University of Louvain.

4
1.2. Cyclones
Cyclones, bringing damaging winds, heavy            are experienced at dealing with cyclones
rain, flooding, and storm surges, are the most      (Dornan & Newton Cain, 2015, p. 24). Estimates
significant natural hazard for Vanuatu. The         of the decrease in the country’s GDP growth
country experiences an average of 2 to 2.4          rate attributable to the cyclone vary from 2.0
cyclones per year, mainly between November          to 2.8 percentage points (Lee et al., 2018, p. 22;
and April (Australian Bureau of Meteorology         WTO [World Trade Organization], 2019, p. 1).
and CSIRO, 2014, p. 320; Handmer & Iveson,
                                                    Climate change is expected to lead to fewer
2017, p. 60). Storm surges associated with
                                                    but more powerful cyclones by the end of this
cyclones, and flooding due to heavy rains, are
                                                    century. Different climate models produce
common occurrences (Jackson et al., 2017, p.
                                                    varying projections of cyclone formation rates,
365). Landslides are also occasionally triggered
                                                    with a majority suggesting a likely decrease
by precipitation from cyclones (Jackson et al.,
                                                    of 15% to 35% in cyclone formation affecting
2017, p. 365). The average annual losses caused
                                                    Vanuatu by the end of the century. Global
by cyclones has been estimated at 5.0% of GDP
                                                    projections suggest that maximum wind speeds
(PCRAFI, 2011, p. 5).
                                                    could increase by 2% to 11%, which would lead
In 2015, TC (Tropical Cyclone) Pam, the most        to exponentially higher damage, and that
intense cyclone in the country’s history, caused    rainfall within 100 km of cyclone centers could
widespread damage and economic loss. The            increase by around 20%; there are no local
storm caused damage and loss estimated              projections of cyclone intensity specifically for
at 64% of GDP, temporarily displaced 65% of         Vanuatu (ADB, 2018, p. 5; Australian Bureau of
households in affected areas (mostly finding        Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014, p. 333).
shelter with friends, family, or community
                                                    Global evidence shows that the economic
shelters in their local areas), destroyed crops
                                                    damage caused by cyclones is long-lasting
on a large scale leading to food security
                                                    and cumulative. A study of the long-term
issues and reliance on emergency food aid,
                                                    economic impacts of tropical cyclones that
damaged and contaminated water supplies,
                                                    examined 6,712 storm events found that the
damaged 81% of homes in affected areas, and
                                                    impact on GDP caused by a cyclone lasts at
“compromised the livelihoods of at least 80%
                                                    least twenty years, and that countries that are
of Vanuatu’s rural population” (Government
                                                    repeatedly exposed to cyclones experience
of Vanuatu, 2015b, pp. ix, 3; Handmer &
                                                    a cumulative and effectively permanent loss
Nalau, 2019, p. 374; SPC [Secretariate of the
                                                    to GDP. More powerful storms cause more
Pacific Community], 2016, pp. 6, 11; WFP, 2016,
                                                    long-term damage: each additional meter per
pp. 5–6). Heavy rain and storm surges led to
                                                    second (3.6 km/h) increase in average annual
coastal and fluvial flooding, and damage to
                                                    wind exposure lowers per capita economic
buildings and other infrastructure in some areas
                                                    output by 0.37% twenty years later, and an
(Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, pp. 34, 56, 62;
                                                    increase in a country’s cyclone exposure by
Rey et al., 2017, pp. 263–266). Only 11 people
                                                    one standard deviation lowers GDP by 3.6
were killed as a result of the cyclone, which
                                                    percentage points twenty years later (Hsiang
is low considering the extensive damage to
                                                    & Jina, 2014). One study in Vanuatu, on Efate
property that it inflicted; the low death toll is
                                                    island, indicated that recovery from TC Pam at
attributed both to government preparedness
                                                    the local village level could take anywhere from
and to the resilience of the Ni-Vanuatu8, who
                                                    five months to three years: some respondents

8
    The people of Vanuatu.

                                                                                                         5
reported that crops and fruit trees could take a             reported that food supplies were fully available
    year and a half to be re-established, and that               within one to two months, that communities had
    rebuilding most houses took two to three years               essentially recovered in four to five months, and
    with some houses still not fully repaired up to four         that most houses were rebuilt within one year
    years after the cyclone, while other respondents             (Jennings et al., 2020, p. 29).

    Table 1: Livelihood disruptions resulting from TC Pam

                                                                       Post-cyclone status         Anticipated time to
                   Activity                            Profitability
                                                                       and issues                  recovery

                                                                       Cannot be easily
                   Fishing (tuna, marlin, reef fish)   High                                        3 months
                                                                       located

                   Trapping lobster and coconut                        Cannot be located,
                                                       High                                        6 months
                   crabs                                               may be gone
     Activities
                                                                       Some seedlings
     primarily
                   Sandalwood farming                  High            destroyed, but trees        3 months
     undertaken
                                                                       mainly intact
     by men

                   Kava cultivation                    High            Largely wiped out           4 years

                   Copra cultivation                   High            Largely wiped out           12 months

                   Sales of Prepared Foods                             Not possible in current
                                                       Low                                         6 months
     Activities    (local)                                             conditions
     primarily                                                         Pandanus all
                   Weaving handicrafts                 Medium                                      12 months
     undertaken                                                        destroyed
     by women                                                          Sewing machine
                   Sewing (for local sale)             Low                                         Variable
                                                                       damaged and lost

                   Vegetable and fruit sales (to
                                                       Medium          Mainly destroyed            6 months
                   Vila and Tanna)

                                                                       Interrupted due to
     Activities
                   Tourist services                    Medium          damage and lack             Variable
     undertaken
                                                                       of transport
     by men
     and           Work in guesthouses and                             Many damaged and
                                                       Medium                                      Variable
     women         restaurants                                         closed

                                                                       Only root crops left in
                   Cultivation of other crops          Medium                                      3–6 months
                                                                       most locations

                                                                                       (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 97)

6
1.3. Earthquakes and tsunamis
Vanuatu is located on the Pacific “Ring of                         coastal uplift with associated coral death, loss
Fire”, placing it at risk of earthquakes and                       of fishing grounds and reduced sea access for
tsunamis (PCRAFI, 2011, p. 3). Such events are                     fishing but no significant damage to crops or
rare but can be extremely damaging when                            property (Eriksson et al., 2017, p. 52). Vanuatu
they do occur. Vanuatu has experienced 18                          has a 40% chance of experiencing a significant
significant earthquakes9 since 2000, or about 0.9                  earthquake that could cause heavy damage
earthquakes per year (National Geophysical                         to well-engineered buildings within the next
Data Center / World Data Service (NGDC/                            50 years (PCRAFI, 2011, p. 3). On average,
WDS), 2020). The most recent non-volcanic                          the country is expected to incur damage
earthquake, of magnitude 7.0, occurred in                          amounting to 1.5% of GDP due to earthquakes
Malampa province in April 2016 and led to                          and tsunamis (PCRAFI, 2011, p. 5).

1.4. Volcanoes
Most of Vanuatu’s islands are volcanic in                          costing about VUV 47 million (approximately
origin, and there are six active volcanoes in                      USD 493,000), mostly funded by the Vanuatu
the country which have triggered humanitarian                      government with some assistance from China
relief efforts and large-scale evacuations                         and New Zealand (Nimau et al., 2019, pp. 12–
several times in recent years. Mount Yasur on                      15), and another ash fall in 2016 affected 20,000
Tanna island (population approximately 29,000),                    people and led to a humanitarian relief effort
for example, is an almost continuously active                      costing at least VUV 150 million (approximately
volcano that emits gases, smoke, ash, and                          USD 1.4 million) (PCRAFI, 2018, p. 1). More
frequent bursts of lava (Nimau et al., 2019, pp.                   recently, eruptions of the volcano Manaro Voui
7, 11–12). Ash, in particular, routinely affects                   on Ambae island led to evacuating the entire
large areas of the island, with larger eruptions                   population, approximately 11,000 people, to
sometimes prompting significant humanitarian                       other islands in 2017 for a month, and then
interventions. An eruption in 2013 damaged                         again in mid-2018 for approximately six months
most of the vegetation across the Whitesands                       (IDMC, 2018, p. 31; IOM, 2019; PCRAFI, 2018, pp.
district and led to a humanitarian relief effort                   2–5; WTO, 2019, p. 27).

9
     Defined as meeting at least one of the following criteria: caused deaths, caused moderate damage (approximately $1
    million or more), magnitude 7.5 or greater, Modified Mercalli Intensity X or greater, or the earthquake generated a tsunami
    (National Geophysical Data Center / World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), 2020).

                                                                                                                                  7
1.5. Droughts
    Droughts have serious impacts on subsistence                   The impact of climate change on the risk of
    agriculture and on water supplies, which in                    drought is uncertain. The incidence of drought
    Vanuatu are heavily dependent on rainwater                     may remain approximately unchanged under
    harvesting. Droughts are generally associated                  most carbon emissions scenarios, and may
    with the El Niño10 phenomenon, which affects                   decrease slightly under conditions of high
    precipitation patterns across the Pacific.                     emissions, but these projections carry a low
    Region-wide, high dependence on subsistence                    degree of confidence because there is a
    agriculture makes Pacific islands vulnerable                   lack of consensus on projections of average
    to the effects of El Niño conditions including                 rainfall and on potential changes in the El Niño
    drought (Thomalla & Boyland, 2017, p. 40). In                  phenomenon, which directly influences drought
    Vanuatu, the drought that occurred during the                  (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO,
    2016 El Niño led to shortages of drinking water,               2014, pp. 331–332).
    hindered the regrowth of crops damaged
    by TC Pam the previous year, and required
    emergency food distribution targeting 90,000
    people (Eriksson et al., 2017, p. 52; OCHA
    [United Nations Office for the Coordination of
    Humanitarian Affairs], 2015, p. 4).

    10
      El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which is observed every two to seven years,
     leading to weakening of prevailing trade winds, reduced ocean upwelling and altered ocean currents, and changes to
     wind, sea surface temperature and precipitation patterns (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014, pp. 347–348).

8
2. Vulnerability and Impacts
2.1. Economic profile
Vanuatu’s relatively small economy is
                                                                           Figure 3: Vanuatu GDP annual change
dominated by a large and growing tourism
industry and subsistence agriculture. Vanuatu
                                                                            10
ranks 141st out of 189 countries on the Human

                                                   GDP growth (annual %)
                                                                             8
Development Index, falling within the ‘medium
                                                                             6
human development’ category (UNDP
                                                                             4
[United Nations Development Programme],
                                                                             2
2019, p. 302). Economic development is
                                                                             0
hampered by its geographical remoteness,
                                                                            -2
widely dispersed islands, high costs of public
                                                                            -4
service provision and of transportation and
                                                                            -6
trade, and vulnerability to external economic

                                                                                 1999
                                                                                        2001
                                                                                               2003
                                                                                                      2005
                                                                                                             2007
                                                                                                                    2009
                                                                                                                           2011
                                                                                                                                  2013
                                                                                                                                         2015
                                                                                                                                                2017
                                                                                                                                                       2019
shocks, notably those resulting from natural
hazards (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p.
                                                                                                                              (World Bank 2020c)
2; WTO, 2019, p. 25). Its relatively small size
means that domestic markets tend to be too                                 Figure 4: Vanuatu employment by sector
small for industries to benefit from economies
of scale (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p.                                  80
                                                   % of total employment

2). Economic activity is concentrated in the                                70
                                                                                                                                          Agriculture
two most populous urban centres, Port Vila                                  60
and Luganville (Rust, 2019, p. 10). The formal                              50
                                                                                                                                                Services
economy is narrowly based, driven primarily                                 40
by tourism, agriculture, international aid, and                             30
construction (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b,                                 20
                                                                                                                                                Industry
p. 2; Handmer & Iveson, 2017, p. 61; PCRAFI,                                10
2015, p. 7; WTO, 2019, p. 25). Tourism is the                                0
largest industry by share of GDP and by share
                                                                                 1999
                                                                                        2001
                                                                                               2003
                                                                                                      2005
                                                                                                             2007
                                                                                                                    2009
                                                                                                                           2011
                                                                                                                                  2013
                                                                                                                                         2015
                                                                                                                                                2017
                                                                                                                                                       2019

of export earnings (see section 2.3 below), but
agriculture, mostly carried out on a subsistence                                                                              (World Bank 2020c)
basis, is the dominant economic activity, with
approximately 80% of the population relying
to some degree on subsistence farming for
livelihood and food security (VNSO [Vanuatu
National Statistics Office], 2013, cited in
Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 16).

                                                                                                                                                              9
2.2. Agriculture and fisheries
     Subsistence agriculture is the principal              caused by TC Pam were estimated at VUV
     economic activity and source of livelihoods           6.1 billion (approximately USD 56 million; 8.0%
     in Vanuatu. Although agriculture contributes          of GDP) (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, pp.
     less to GDP than the service sector, agriculture      16, 127), but the financial value of the crops
     remains the principal economic activity and           lost does not fully represent the livelihood and
     source of livelihood for the vast majority of         food security impacts on rural households.
     ni-Vanuatu (Mackenzie-Reur & Galgal, 2018,            Crops suffered 69% of the total agricultural
     p. 9). Agriculture makes up 25% of GDP and            damage and loss, followed by forestry (16%),
     mostly consists of crop production (79% of            livestock (9%), and fisheries (6%) (Government
     the agriculture sector) with livestock (14%),         of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 16). Most of the crop
     forestry (5%), and fisheries (3%) making small        losses (58%) were in kava, a major export
     contributions (Government of Vanuatu,                 crop, which is fragile and vulnerable to strong
     2015b, p. 16). Vanuatu’s agriculture sector is        winds (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 18).
     dominated by semi-subsistence farmers using           Approximately half of all agricultural households
     mostly household labor; approximately 80%             in the affected areas lost all or part of their
     of Vanuatu’s population relies on agriculture         crops, including crops such as kava, copra, and
     (mainly crops, livestock, and fisheries) for          cocoa that will take up to a year to re-establish
     livelihoods and for food and nutrition security,      (potentially three to four years for kava)
     and at least 71% of the rural population derives      (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, pp. 19, 90, 97).
     some income from agricultural activities (VNSO,       Across the affected areas, 85% of households
     2013, cited in Government of Vanuatu, 2015b,          were engaged in subsistence farming, and
     p. 16). In 2016, 42% of all households in Vanuatu     slightly more than half of these households had
     grew coconuts as cash crops, 32% grew                 no other sources of income (REACH, 2015, pp.
     kava, 16% grew cocoa, and 4% grew coffee              34–35). Following the cyclone, food security
     (Vanuatu National Statistics Office, 2017, p.         was a significant problem: food prices rose
     217). Kava production nationally has increased        dramatically in rural areas, availability of fruit
     significantly in recent years – kava was the          and vegetables was very restricted, people in
     country’s third largest export commodity in           affected areas were rationing food, and about
     2014 but made up 53% of all exports by the end        200,000 people received emergency food aid
     of 2019 (Vanuatu Department of Agriculture            from the government, NGOs, and the World
     and Rural Development, 2016, p. 11; Vanuatu           Food Programme (Hollema et al., 2015, pp.
     National Statistics Office, 2020, p. 2) – so kava’s   10–16; Wentworth, 2020, pp. 78–81; WFP, 2016,
     contribution to household incomes is likely to        pp. 5–6). Within one month of the cyclone, 85%
     have increased. The extent to which kava may          of households had replanted their subsistence
     have replaced other crops is uncertain. Nearly        gardens, but even the fastest-growing crops
     all households in coastal villages (32% of all        needed at least three months to reach maturity
     households in Vanuatu) are involved in coastal        (REACH, 2015, p. 35). Fishing was badly affected
     fishing, mostly at a subsistence level, with about    for several weeks following the cyclone, but
     6% of all households engaged in fishing for sale      served as an alternative source of food and
     (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 17).                livelihood for many households whose crops
                                                           had been damaged or destroyed, and fishing
     Cyclones cause extensive damage, loss of              had mostly returned to normal by the time of an
     production, and harm to livelihoods in the            assessment a year and a half later, apart from
     agriculture sector. The total damage and              the loss of some fishing areas (Eriksson et al.,
     economic losses in the agricultural sector            2017, pp. 52–53).

10
Climate change is expected to adversely                 on agriculture include reduced availability
affect agriculture and fisheries through                of fresh water, changes in growing seasons,
increased frequency of extreme weather,                 increases in pests and diseases, sea level rise,
changes in sea level rise, and disruption of            saltwater inundation and intrusion into coastal
aquatic ecosystems. Across the Pacific region,          land and groundwater, ocean acidification
most cash crops are vulnerable to extreme               and coral reef deterioration, reduced fisheries
weather events. High winds from more intense            productivity, loss of coastal land, damage
tropical cyclones severely threaten crops such          to infrastructure and equipment, and
as bananas, breadfruit, and coconuts, and               compromised food security (Government of
sugar cane is expected to be affected by                Vanuatu, 2015a, pp. 6–7). It is possible that
flooding (Bell et al., 2016, p. 17). In Vanuatu,        cacao production could be enhanced by rising
projected consequences of climate change                temperatures (Bell et al., 2016, p. 17).

2.3. Tourism
Vanuatu has a large and growing tourism                 Tropical cyclone Pam caused significant
industry which is extremely important to                economic harm to the tourism sector,
the country’s economy, but vulnerable to                mostly through damage to accommodation
natural hazards. Estimates of the economic              properties, but the impacts lasted only one
importance of travel and tourism to Vanuatu             season. Damage and economic loss to the
range between 35% and 45% of GDP, between               tourism sector was estimated at VUV 9.5
14% and 38% of total employment, and up to              billion (approximately USD 87 million; 12.5%
67% of total export earnings (Connel, 2019, p.          of GDP) (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b,
327; ILO [International Labour Organization],           p. 29). Most of the damage was suffered by
2017a, p. 30; World Travel & Tourism Council,           accommodation properties (88%), with the
2020; WTO, 2019, p. 31). The World Travel and           greatest damage associated with two major
Tourism Council predicts industry growth of 4.1%        hotels, but widespread lower-value damage
per year over the next decade with tourism’s            was suffered by other accommodation
contribution to Vanuatu’s GDP expected to               properties and by 88% of all tour operators
reach 50% of GDP by 2027 (WTO, 2019, p. 31).            (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 31). Women
                                                        were expected to suffer greater job losses than
Tourism in Vanuatu is nature-based and
                                                        men, because in post-disaster situations the
highly dependent on coastal as well as
                                                        tourism industry commonly retains managerial
inland ecosystems. Major attractions include
                                                        and groundskeeping staff, who are mostly male,
adventure tourism, volcanoes, beaches,
                                                        and lays off housekeeping staff, who are mostly
cruising, cultural activities, diving and snorkeling,
                                                        female (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 34).
eco-tourism, and fishing (Perrottet & Garcia,
                                                        Tourist arrivals dropped by between 11% and
2016, pp. 12–13). Across the Pacific region,
                                                        17% following the cyclone (Perrottet & Garcia,
impacts of climate change are expected to
                                                        2016, p. 2; WTO, 2019, p. 31) but the decline was
include increased intensity of storms, increased
                                                        brief and the tourism sector had recovered to
temperatures and extreme weather events,
                                                        pre-cyclone levels by 2017 (Eriksson et al., 2017,
damage to infrastructure, beach erosion,
                                                        p. 52; WTO, 2019, p. 31). Some larger properties
damage to marine ecosystems, and policy
                                                        were slow to reopen (the Holiday Inn took more
responses such as carbon taxes which will
                                                        than 15 months) but smaller owner-operator
increase travel costs and negatively affect
                                                        guesthouses were able to reopen more quickly;
tourism development (Van Der Veeken et al.,
                                                        however, “many business owners who had
2016, p. 53).
                                                        not procured cyclone insurance folded in
                                                        the aftermath of the storm, unable to reinvest
                                                        sufficient savings in their businesses or to tap
                                                        sources of credit” (WTO, 2019, p. 31).

                                                                                                             11
2.4. Commerce and industry
     Vanuatu’s economy, apart from agriculture           industry were estimated at VUV 3.3 billion
     and tourism, is largely based on trade, with        (approximately USD 30 million; 4.4% of GDP)
     very little domestic manufacturing. As of 2013,     (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 22).
     commerce and industry contributed 36% of            Home-based businesses are presumed to have
     GDP, mostly in the form of retail trade (12% of     been badly affected as 81% of households in
     GDP), finance and insurance (7%), and real          affected areas reported some level of damage
     estate (7%) (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p.       (REACH, 2015, p. 2), but no specific data on
     23). Manufacturing makes up only 3% of GDP          home-based small businesses could be located.
     (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 23). Small-       However, despite the high frequency of natural
     scale production of handicrafts for the tourist     hazards affecting Vanuatu, in a survey of
     market is an important source of livelihoods        MSMEs carried out in November 2016, only 1% of
     for independent producers, wholesalers, and         respondents identified natural hazards as being
     market sellers, but the government is making        among their most pressing problems; most
     efforts to encourage more local production as it    businesses identified more routine concerns
     has been estimated that up to 90% of souvenirs      such as competition from other businesses
     sold in Vanuatu are manufactured overseas           (31%) and finding customers (24%) as their most
     and imported into the country to be sold to         pressing problems (Reserve Bank of Vanuatu,
     tourists (Vanuatu Department of Industry, 2017,     2016b, p. 27). MSMEs in the agriculture sector
     p. 13).                                             did, however, identify natural hazards and
                                                         climate change as creating credit risk which
     TC Pam caused widespread damage to
                                                         inhibited borrowing (Reserve Bank of Vanuatu,
     buildings and inputs to production. Damage
                                                         2016b, p. 46).
     and economic losses to commerce and

     2.5. Housing and settlements
     Housing in Vanuatu is often low-quality and         p. 36). Studies looking at housing damage after
     vulnerable to cyclone damage. Seventy-five          TC Pam arrived at different conclusions: the
     percent of the population of Vanuatu live           Shelter Cluster found that buildings constructed
     in rural areas, with 19% living in the capital,     in the traditional style survived better than
     Port Vila, and 6% in the country’s second city,     houses using modern materials or methods,
     Luganville (Vanuatu National Statistics Office,     while a report by Save the Children concluded
     2017, pp. 95–96). Most construction in rural        that roofs constructed from traditional
     areas is informal, unregulated, and not built       materials suffered greater damage than roofs
     according to any standards or codes, which          constructed from modern materials (Handmer
     makes communities vulnerable to building            & Iveson, 2017, p. 64) and the government’s
     damage and injury resulting from natural            post-disaster needs assessment concluded that
     hazards (Handmer & Iveson, 2017, p. 64).            buildings constructed to modern standards
     Vanuatu has a large stock (43%) of houses built     survived better and called for more inspections
     using traditional locally-available materials and   to improve compliance with standards
     techniques such as thatch, woven palm fronds,       (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 27). Port
     and woven cane; 30% of houses are built of          Vila also has large informal settlements which
     locally-available materials supplemented            house 35% of the city’s population (as of
     with features such as timber framing and            2013), where housing and infrastructure are
     corrugated galvanized iron roofs; and 27%           not disaster-resilient and access to services is
     are of more durable timber or concrete block        poor (NDMO [National Disaster Management
     construction (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b,         Office], 2018, p. 11). These informal settlements

12
do not have official sanction and are generally       six months after the cyclone, 86% of displaced
based on agreements with local land owners            households had returned home and half of the
(Handmer & Iveson, 2017, p. 61).                      remainder expected to return home at some
                                                      point (Shelter Cluster, 2015, p. 14). Rebuilding
TC Pam caused extensive damage to housing
                                                      after TC Pam often tended to be done quickly
stock and temporarily displaced 65% of
                                                      and cheaply, and buildings were typically
households in affected areas. In affected
                                                      restored to their previous conditions in the
areas, 81% of households reported some level
                                                      same locations and using the same materials
of damage, with the most vulnerable houses
                                                      rather than raising standards (Handmer &
being those with thatched roofs (55% to 77%
                                                      Iveson, 2017, pp. 63–64). Within one to one
of such houses reported total destruction of
                                                      and a half months after the cyclone, 72% of
the roof, depending on the materials used)
                                                      households had completed enough repairs
and walls and floors of bamboo (56% of
                                                      that they “perceived that their immediate
bamboo walls and 63% of bamboo floors
                                                      shelter needs had been met”, and by five to
were completely destroyed) (REACH, 2015,
                                                      six months after the cyclone, this had risen to
pp. 20–21). Damage to homes also results in
                                                      85% (REACH, 2015, p. 24; Shelter Cluster, 2015,
loss of income from home-based livelihood
                                                      p. 20). Five to six months after the cyclone, 68%
activities, which particularly affects women
                                                      of households reported that they had received
(Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 38). Sixty-
                                                      shelter assistance, consisting mostly of tarpaulins
five percent of households in the affected
                                                      (82%), building materials (35%), blankets (27%),
areas left their houses to stay in safer locations,
                                                      and tool kits (26%) (Shelter Cluster, 2015, p. 16).
suggesting widespread fears that houses were
                                                      However, most households (81%) reported that
not sufficiently robust to withstand the cyclone
                                                      they had relied on using recovered materials
(REACH, 2015, p. 2). Most stayed with friends
                                                      (sifting through debris) and locally-available
or family in their own community (53%) or in a
                                                      natural materials (Shelter Cluster, 2015, pp.
community-managed shelter such as a school
                                                      21–22).
or church (30%) (REACH, 2015, p. 12). By five to

2.6. Low-income and informal workers
Worldwide and across the Pacific, poor and            less quickly (Hallegatte et al., 2017, p. 4; ILO
marginalized people are disproportionally             [International Labour Organization], 2019a, p. 4;
exposed to natural hazards. Poor people               SPC, 2018, p. 108; Utz, 2017, p. 90; Wehrhahn et
often live on low value land in locations             al., 2019, p. 60).
where they are more exposed to hazards
                                                      The impacts of natural hazards are also
(including frequent, low-intensity hazards) than
                                                      disproportionately higher for poorer people
wealthier people are. They lack resources to
                                                      (Wehrhahn et al., 2019, p. 60). The same
invest in disaster-resilient housing and other
                                                      loss affects poor people more severely than
infrastructure, their employment and incomes
                                                      wealthy people because “their livelihoods
are less secure and they have less access to
                                                      depend on fewer assets, their consumption is
social protection schemes, and they have
                                                      closer to subsistence levels, they cannot rely
limited savings and limited access to insurance
                                                      on savings to smooth the impacts, their health
or affordable credit. When disaster strikes they
                                                      and education are at greater risk, and they
are often forced to adopt coping strategies
                                                      may need more time to recover and rebuild”
that have long-term negative impacts, such as
                                                      (Hallegatte et al., 2018, p. 4). The monetary
taking children out of school, selling productive
                                                      value of damage to assets and losses to
assets, or reducing food intake, and they
                                                      economic production does not fully reflect the
often receive less post-disaster support, and

                                                                                                            13
impacts on people’s well-being (Hallegatte          that 13.2% of the population fell below the
     et al., 2018, p. 4). For example, in Vanuatu,       USD 1.90 per day international poverty line, and
     most of the rural population lives in traditional   39.5% fell below the USD 3.20 per day lower-
     housing made of palm leaves, bamboo and             middle-income poverty line (World Bank, 2018,
     other local materials, which has a low value in     p. 1). Vanuatu also has a nationally-defined
     monetary terms but is essential to inhabitants      basic needs poverty line and food poverty line;
     (Handmer & Nalau, 2019, p. 374). Women,             in 2010, 12.7% of individuals were in basic needs
     youth, children, the elderly, people living with    poverty and only 3.2% were in food poverty
     disabilities, and people belonging to ethnic        (Anderson et al., 2017, p. 108). Poverty rates
     or religious minorities are also more severely      are higher in urban areas than in rural areas
     affected by natural hazards than people who         (Anderson et al., 2017, p. 23).
     have more wealth, power, and influence.
                                                         Vanuatu has high levels of subsistence
     Vulnerable people in all these groups tend to
                                                         economic activity, and employment is largely
     be overrepresented in the informal economy,
                                                         informal and vulnerable. Only 30% of the adult
     more likely to be unemployed or in insecure
                                                         population (excluding full-time students) is in
     work, and have less access to resources with
                                                         paid employment, with 35% producing goods
     which to restore their livelihoods or adapt to
                                                         for their own consumption or for sale, 32% doing
     climate change (ILO, 2019a, p. 12).
                                                         unpaid work in a family business or agricultural
     Poverty is a significant issue in Vanuatu,          plantation, or undertaking household duties,
     although there is a lack of recent data to          and 3% considered economically inactive
     confirm the current situation. The most recent      (Vanuatu National Statistics Office, 2017, pp. 75,
     data available are from the 2010 Household          232).
     income and Expenditure Survey, which showed

        Figure 5: Adult population by economic activity

     Male                                                Female

                                Unpaid
                                work 23%
              Producing                                                Unpaid
                                                                                              Producing
              goods 36%                                                work 40%
                                                                                              goods 35%

                              Employed
                              38%                                               Employed
                                                                                22%
                                                                                                          Economically
      Economically
                                                                                                          inactive 3%
      inactive 3%
                                                                  (Vanuatu National Statistics Office, 2017, pp. 75–80)

     The formal economy is relatively small, but         formal employment (Government of Vanuatu,
     the size of the informal economy is difficult to    2015b, pp. 88–89), while the ILO estimates
     measure: the government’s post-disaster needs       that 40% of total employment is informal (ILO,
     assessment following TC Pam estimated that          2017b, p. 31). The ILO also considers 74% of
     20% of the labor force (26% of working-age          employment in Vanuatu to be vulnerable
     males and 14% of working-age females) were in       (including people working on their own account

14
and contributing family workers) in the sense of       meet minimum needs, and 75% to 95% of
suffering from low job and income security and         income-generating activities were disrupted
less protection under employment regulation            (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, pp. xii, 94). On
than work in the formal economy (ILO, 2019a, p.        Tanna island, food crops took at least a year to
4). Approximately 80% of Vanuatu’s population          recover, partly due to the impacts of drought
relies on agriculture (mainly crops, livestock, and    conditions caused by El Niño; some remote
fisheries) for livelihood and for food and nutrition   communities which lacked access to monetary
security, and at least 71% of the rural population     income experienced significant food insecurity
derives some income from agricultural activities       with increased health problems (Handmer
(VNSO 2013, cited in Government of Vanuatu,            & Nalau, 2019, p. 375). People dependent
2015b, p. 16).                                         on subsistence farming, especially in remote
                                                       locations with limited market economies, have
TC Pam had severe impacts on people living
                                                       limited options available to them; they “cannot
on low incomes and subsistence livelihoods.
                                                       simply change their livelihoods” (Handmer &
In affected areas, half of all agricultural
                                                       Nalau, 2019, p. 371).
households lost part or all of their crops
and required support in the short term to

2.7. Gender
Worldwide and across the Pacific, women                strategy (Bogdan et al., 2019, pp. iv–v; ILO,
and girls are disproportionately vulnerable            2019a, p. 12). Women also usually have more
to the effects of natural hazards and climate          limited opportunities than men to diversify their
change (Bogdan et al., 2019; Utz, 2017, p.             livelihoods by taking up new occupations,
90). Women and girls have less ability than            because of social norms, home-based
men to influence, participate in, and benefit          responsibilities, or limited education (Thomas
from disaster risk reduction and recovery              et al., 2019, p. 706). “Socially constructed roles
efforts, and from climate change mitigation            and responsibilities, occupational segregation,
and adaptation efforts (Utz, 2017, p. 90). They        and cultural norms” lead to women bearing
have less access than men to the resources             burdens that include “increased time and
necessary to cope with and respond to                  labour workloads, health issues like malnutrition,
hazardous events, including information,               increased rates of sexual and gender-based
employment opportunities, education,                   violence and even early child marriage”
health, land, financial resources and other            (Bogdan et al., 2019, p. 33). Worldwide, even
economic assets, and basic rights (Utz, 2017,          fatality rates in disasters tend to be higher
p. 90; Vincent et al., 2014, p. 105). Women            for women than for men, “primarily due to
often have less access than men to early               gendered differences in support to cope
warning systems such as weather forecasts              with such events and insufficient access to
and warnings of floods and water levels, and           information and early warnings” (Bogdan et al.,
are often less prepared to understand and act          2019, p. 33; ILO, 2019a, p. 12).
on the information due to gender differences
                                                       Gender also interacts with other social
in literacy, mobility, access to public venues,
                                                       characteristics to affect how individuals are
work schedules, and preferences for different
                                                       impacted by natural hazards (Bogdan et
communication media (Bogdan et al., 2019,
                                                       al., 2019, p. 4). Across Asia, the Pacific, and
pp. 26–33; IFRC [International Federation of
                                                       Africa, women in rural areas tend to be more
Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies], 2010,
                                                       vulnerable than those in urban areas; older
p. 32). Women’s livelihoods often depend on
                                                       women and women with disabilities are
natural resources that are affected by natural
                                                       more severely affected because of a lack
hazards, and on assets that are vulnerable to
                                                       of accessible infrastructure and information;
disasters or to being sold as a negative coping

                                                                                                            15
pregnant and lactating women are at higher         al., 2019, p. iv). Social norms generally call for
     risk because of inadequate health services         men to be “brave and heroic, and engage
     following disasters; and widowed and divorced      in risky life-saving behaviors that increase their
     women tend to be more vulnerable (Bogdan et        likelihood of mortality” (Bogdan et al., 2019,
     al., 2019, p. 23).                                 p. 25; Vincent et al., 2014, p. 106). They also
                                                        have increased tendencies to suffer mental
     Gendered social norms mean that men suffer
                                                        health issues from isolation and worry, including
     different risks compared to women, particularly
                                                        depression, and to use alcohol as a coping
     physical and mental health risks and pressures
                                                        mechanism (Bogdan et al., 2019, p. 25). Men
     for migration. Most research on the gendered
                                                        often migrate (from rural to urban areas, or
     impacts of climate-related hazards considers
                                                        overseas) in search of new livelihoods, which
     effects on women, with “scarce evidence”
                                                        can strain households and break up families
     available about impacts on men (Bogdan et
                                                        (Bogdan et al., 2019, p. 25).

     Table 2: Gendered impacts of climate change in Asia, the Pacific, and Africa

                                         Women                                      Men
                                                                   •   Mortality risks among men with
                         •   Higher mortality and morbidity
                                                                       heroic behavior and rescue
                             rates in disasters
                                                                       workers
                         •   Extra workloads (time and labor)
      Physical                                                     •   Migration for livelihood
                         •   Malnutrition
                                                                       diversification
                         •   Sexual and gender-based violence
                                                                   •   Other health issues, like
                             during and after disasters
                                                                       rheumatism

                         •   Loss of small household livestock     •   Loss of livestock and assets
                         •   Loss of livelihoods connected with
                             natural resources, less time to re-
                             establish them
      Material
                         •   Loss of land because of
                             inheritance issues
                         •   Disparities in access to disaster
                             relief and aid

                         •   Psychological issues associated       •   Psychological impacts including
                             mostly with fear of gender-based          social isolation, trauma,
      Psychological          violence and feelings of shame            depression, stress that can lead
                             during disasters and stress for           to alcohol abuse and even
                             providing food for the family             suicide
                         •   Girls (early marriage) and            •   Rural and poor men
                             adolescent girls (risk of sexual      •   Widowers
                             harassment)
                         •   Rural women and women without
                             access to resources
      Most affected
                         •   Women living in low-lying areas
      groups
                         •   Disabled and older women
                         •   Widowed, divorced, and single
                             women
                         •   Pregnant and lactating women
                         •   Female-headed households
                                                                   •   Positive: change in household
                         •   Negative: weaker family structures,
      Gender relations                                                 and community roles, women
                             domestic violence
                                                                       taking leadership

                                                                                    (Bogdan et al., 2019, p. 22)

16
In Vanuatu, gender inequality is a significant                       2011, p. 55). A 2013 survey showed that 56% of
challenge, and women’s political and                                 men and 60% of women agree that a husband
economic participation is significantly limited                      is justified in beating his wife.11 (Vanuatu Ministry
by social norms. Women are largely excluded                          of Health; Vanuatu National Statistics Office;
from decision-making processes at the national                       and the Secretariat of the Pacific Community,
and local levels, including the traditional                          2013, pp. 228–232). Marriage at a young age
local governance systems present in all                              is common (21% of girls are married before the
communities, and face challenges accessing                           age of 18), which put girls at high risk of abuse
paid employment outside of agriculture (CARE,                        (Girls not Brides, 2020; Taylor & Michael, 2013,
2015, p. 3; Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p.                         pp. 12–13), and the practice of bride-price
103, 2015a, p. 26). Men and women tend to                            is cited as a factor in perpetuating violence
undertake different types of livelihood activities:                  against women (Taylor & Michael, 2013, p. 12).
men typically undertake more profitable                              National policy and law criminalizes gender-
activities including fishing, growing cash                           based violence, provides access to protection
crops, and operating shops, while women are                          orders, and seeks to counter some traditional
typically involved in activities such as weaving                     discriminatory practices and address gender
mats and baskets, selling prepared food at                           inequalities (Taylor & Michael, 2013, p. 17), but
markets, sewing clothes for sale, and growing                        nevertheless gender-based violence is high,
vegetables for subsistence or sale (Government                       widely accepted, and often considered to be
of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 95). Gender-based                              a private matter to be resolved within families
inequality is deeper in urban areas than in                          following traditional customs (Anderson et al.,
rural areas, and there is significant disparity                      2017, p. 119; Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, p.
in wages and economic opportunities (Rust,                           103).
2019, p. 10). The labor force participation rate
                                                                     There is limited evidence available about
in 2016 was 61.7% for women and 80.5% for
                                                                     gender-based violence under emergency
men (ILO, 2017b, p. 29). The government has
                                                                     conditions in Vanuatu. Worldwide, evidence
made significant efforts to acknowledge the
                                                                     shows that gender-based violence often
impacts of natural hazards on women’s social
                                                                     increases following disasters, in all countries
and economic well-being and to collect sex
                                                                     at all stages of development (Masson et al.,
and age disaggregated data in disaster risk
                                                                     2016, p. 11). Assessment reports for disasters in
reduction work, and is seeking to increase
                                                                     Vanuatu have raised concerns and highlighted
women’s participation in decision-making
                                                                     risks, but provide little robust evidence on the
forums (Government of Vanuatu, 2015a, pp. 16,
                                                                     incidence of gender-based violence following
26), and recent post-disaster needs assessments
                                                                     disasters. Following two tropical cyclones in
such as the one that followed TC Pam in 2015
                                                                     2011, a counseling center on Tanna island
demonstrate significant attention to gender
                                                                     reported more than a tripling in domestic
issues.
                                                                     violence cases (CARE, 2015, p. 8). Surveys of
Gender-based violence in Vanuatu is                                  evacuees from Ambae island in 2017 found
widespread and widely accepted based on                              that between 10% and 35% of respondents
traditional social norms. A study on violence                        had observed increases in domestic violence
against women and girls conducted in 2009                            and child abuse (Gender & Protection Cluster,
found that 60% who have ever been in a                               2017b, p. 5, 2017c, p. 5, 2017a, p. 3). Following
relationship have experienced either physical                        TC Pam in 2015, emergency shelter facilities
or sexual violence or both by a husband or                           on Emae and Tanna islands were noted to be
intimate partner (Vanuatu Women’s Centre,                            often overcrowded and lacking privacy and

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      Specifically, respondents agreed that a husband is justified in hitting or beating his wife for one or more of the following
     reasons: she burns the food, argues with him, goes out without telling him, neglects the children, or refuses to have sexual
     intercourse with him.

                                                                                                                                     17
lighting, particularly around toilet facilities,                   to women, not only affecting households’ own
     which are identified as risk factors for sexual                    food supplies but also affecting women who
     violence (CARE, 2015, p. 8; Government of                          prepared and sold food in markets, which is
     Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 106), but no data on                            another major economic activity for women
     outcomes regarding gender-based violence                           (Morioka, 2016, p. 24). The government’s post-
     following TC Pam could be located. A review                        disaster needs assessment of TC Pam noted
     of the Australian government’s response to                         that women were more likely than men to be
     Cyclone Pam stated that “Vanuatu Women’s                           affected by the cyclone because of women’s
     Crisis Centre and communities reported that                        higher poverty levels, disproportionate share
     domestic violence had increased in the weeks                       of family care work, and because women
     and months following the cyclone,” but no                          are often employed in low-skilled work
     figures are given (Office of Development                           (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b, pp. 94, 105).
     Effectiveness, 2017, p. 61).                                       Women spend four times as many hours as men
                                                                        on unpaid household work (27.2 hours per week
     Natural hazards can disproportionately affect
                                                                        compared with 6.6 hours for men) during normal
     women’s livelihoods by damaging natural
                                                                        times13, and women’s domestic and caring
     resources that women rely on and because
                                                                        workloads increased dramatically following
     women’s social roles can inhibit them from
                                                                        the cyclone (Government of Vanuatu, 2015b,
     pursuing alternative income-earning activities.
                                                                        p. 105). Following TC Pam, women tended to
     In Vanuatu, for example, making handicrafts
                                                                        have high workloads, experience post-disaster
     is a major economic activity for women which
                                                                        emotional distress, have their voices filtered
     was badly affected because of extensive
                                                                        through male managers, have their finances
     damage to pandanus trees12 (Government
                                                                        controlled by husbands, and undertake
     of Vanuatu, 2015b, p. 97; Morioka, 2016, p.
                                                                        stereotypical income-generating activities
     24). The government lifted a seasonal ban on
                                                                        (Clissold et al., 2020, p. 108). Some authors also
     sandalwood harvesting, a role taken by men,
                                                                        note that women played an important role in
     to stimulate the economy, but the damage
                                                                        post-disaster recovery by sharing resources,
     to pandanus trees that affected women’s
                                                                        helping each other across formal and informal
     livelihoods did not attract much attention
                                                                        social networks, and through diversification,
     because they were not officially regarded as
                                                                        adaptation, and entrepreneurialism (Clissold et
     an agricultural commodity (Morioka, 2016, p.
                                                                        al., 2020, p. 108).
     24). The loss of food crops was a double blow

     12
          A tree whose leaves are cut into strips and used for weaving baskets, mats, and other handicrafts.
     13
          These figures are cited by multiple sources; they come from a study carried out in 2000 by Foundation of the People of
          South Pacific International: Whyte, J., S. Siwatibau, et al. (2000). Vanuatu Rural Time Use Survey.

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