ELECTRICITY GENERATION - FACTS AND FIGURES - VGB PowerTech

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ELECTRICITY GENERATION - FACTS AND FIGURES - VGB PowerTech
FACTS AND FIGURES

ELECTRICITY GENERATION   2018|2019
ELECTRICITY GENERATION - FACTS AND FIGURES - VGB PowerTech
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                      EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

DEVELOPMENT OF THE GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY DEMAND

T    he global population of 7.6 billion people is increasing by 90 million
     people per year.
Electricity consumption will grow faster than any other form of energy con-
                                                                                   Contents

                                                                                   n Electricity demand worldwide and in the EU                         2  – 3
sumption due to an increasing demand and population growth − one quarter
                                                                                   n Renewables (RES) in the EU                                             4
of the global population does not yet has access to electricity. Additionally,
electromobility and sector-coupling will increase electricity demand. The          n Hydro power, wind energy, biomass                                  5–7
IEA estimates in its “Current Policies” scenario that in all fields and regions    n Wind energy and secure provision of capacity                       8–9
the annual demand will increase by 2.0 % until 2040. The worldwide gross
                                                                                   n Distributed power, storage technologies                        10 – 11
electricity consumption will increase from 24,765 billion kWh to 42,321 bil-
lion kWh. The “New Policy Scenario” of the IEA – this scenario covers a            n Flexible conventional power plants                             12 – 13
reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions with respect to known policies an-           n Framework for conventional power plants                        14 – 15
nouncements – also notes an increase up to 39,290 billion kWh. About               n Nuclear power worldwide                                        16 – 17
13 %, i.e. 3,244 billion kWh, of electricity globally generated was provided
in the European Union (EU). A 0.2 % (“Current Policies”) or 0.3 % (“New            n Small modular reactors                                         18 – 19
Policies Scenario” with a slightly higher electricity demand) p.a. rise in de-     n New power generation capacities needed                         20 – 21
mand is expected in the EU by 2040.                                                n Best Available Techniques                                      22 – 23
Further scenarios e.g. by BP, ExxonMobile and the U.S. Energy Administra-
                                                                                   n Global climate policy needed                                   24 – 25
tion (EIA) and are available. According to all forecasts the worldwide electric-
ity demand will increase by 2040 in a range of 34,000 to 42,000 billion kWh        n VGB: Activities and members                                    26 – 27
per year.                                                                          n Imprint                                                              28
Expected growth in electricity generation in billion (109) kWh worldwide                                                                                       Expected growth in electricity generation in billion (109) kWh in the EU

45,000
                                                                                                                                                               4,500
                                                                                                                                               IEA:                                                                                                       Current Policies
                                                                                                                                         Current Policies                                                                                                      +5 %
40,000                                                                                                                                        +71 %            4,000                                                                                      +0,2 % per year
                                                                                                                                         +2.0 % per year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        New Policies Scenario
                                                                                                                                       New Policies Scenario   3,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               +8 %
                                                                                                                                             +61 %                                                                                                        +0,3 % per year

                                           New Policies Scenario (IEA)

                                                                                               EIA - Reference Scenario
30,000                                                                                                                                  +1.9 % per year
                  Current Policies (IEA)
                                                                                                                                                               3,000

                                                                         BP - Energy Outlook

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          New Policies Scenario (IEA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Current Policies (IEA)
                                                                                                                                        Wind,                  2,500

                                                                                                                          ExxonMobil
                                                                                                                                        biomass, solar                                                                                                  Wind,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        biomasse, solar
20,000
                                                                                                                                        Hydro                  2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Hydro
                                                                                                                                        Nuclear
                                                                                                                                                               1,500                                                                                    Nuclear
                                                                                                                                        Fossil
10,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Fossil
                                                                                                                                                               1,000

                                                                                                                                                                 500

     0
         2016                                                               2040                                                                                   0
                                                                Year                                                                                                              2016                              2040
                                                                                                                                                                                         Year

                                                                                                                                                                                                Sources: IEA, EU Commission, VGB (own calculations)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 PAG E 2 – 3
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                                                EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

RENEWABLES – EU’S AMBITIOUS TARGETS FOR 2020
The EU and their member states have set binding, ambitious targets to                   Sweden                                                                                                  49 Target
                                                                                                        53.8
promote the expansion of renewable energy sources. For the elec­tricity sec-            Finland         38.7                                                         38 Target reached
                                                                                                                                                                                                   reached

tor, the EU expects renewables to account for 34 % by 2020.                               Latvia
                                                                                         Austria
                                                                                                        37.2
                                                                                                        33.5                                                   34
                                                                                                                                                                        40

Since the implementation of the EU Directive for climate protection and                Denmark          32.2                                             30 Target reached
energy ‒ often referred to as the “20-20-20 package” ‒ adopted in Decem-                 Estonia
                                                                                        Portugal
                                                                                                        28.8
                                                                                                        28.5                                          31
                                                                                                                                                         25 Target reached

ber 2008, the share of renewables in gross final energy consumption has                  Croatia        28.3                                         20 Target reached

increased steadily. In 2016 the share reached 17 %, almost twice as high as            Lithuania
                                                                                       Romania
                                                                                                        25.6
                                                                                                        25.0
                                                                                                                                              23 Target reached
                                                                                                                                              24 Target reached
in 2004 (8.5 %).                                                                       Slovenia         21.3                                  25             EU-targets for RES till 2020:
At 53.8 %, Sweden‘s share of renewables was by far the highest in 2016. In              Bulgaria
                                                                                            Italy
                                                                                                        18.8
                                                                                                        17.4
                                                                                                                                    16 Target reached
                                                                                                                                   17 Target reached          20 % share of renewable
                                                                                                                                                                  energy in gross final energy
total, eleven of the 28 EU member states have met their 2020 targets: Bul-                Spain         17.3                            20
                                                                                                                                                                  consumption
                                                                                                        16.0                                 23
garia (18.8 %, Czech Republic (14.9 %), Denmark (32.3 %), Estonia                        France
                                                                                         Greece         15.2                       18                            10 % share of energy
                                                                                                                                                                  from renewable sources
(28.8 %), Croatia (28.3 %), Italy (17.4 %), Lithuania (25.6 %), Hungary          Czech. Republic        14.9                 13 Target reached                    in transport
                                                                                       Germany
(14.2 %), Romania (25.0 %), Finland (38.7 %) and Sweden (53.8 %).                       Hungary
                                                                                                        14.8
                                                                                                        14.2
                                                                                                                                  18
                                                                                                                         13 Target reached
Austria misses less than 1-%-point to reach its target for 2020.                        Slovakia        12.0             14                                                  EU

Energy from renewables will play a key role for the years after 2020. For this            Poland
                                                                                          Cyprus
                                                                                                        11.3
                                                                                                        9.3             13
                                                                                                                             15                             2016: 17.0 %            2020: 20 %

reason, the member states have agreed on a new EU target of at least 27 %                 Ireland       9.5                   16
                                                                                    United King.        9.3                  15
by 2030.                                                                                 Belgium        8.7             13                        2016
                                                                                    Netherlands         6.0              14                       Target 2020
                                                                                         Malta          6.0      10
                                                                                    Luxembourg          5.4        11
                                                                                         EU-28          17.0                         20

                                                                                                    0          10              20                 30             40                      50                  60
                                                                                                               Share of renewables of gross final energy consumption in %
                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Eurostat (2018, data base: 2016)
                                                                                                                                                           Source: Eurostat 2018 (data base: 2016)
HYDRO POWER – AN INDISPENSABLE SOURCE OF ENERGY
Hydro power is not only a reliable renewable energy source, but also the
frontrunner in Europe in the generation of electricity from renewable en-
ergy sources. With a production of more than 351 TWh – around 37.0 %            Target for RES-electricity                      Status 2016 – Total: 951 TWh
of the electricity generated from renewable energy sources – hydro power                in EU-28                                 Target in 2020: 1,196 TWh
makes a significant contribution to achieving the EU target of 34 % of         2016               2020
                                                                                                                                             83 target; current targets achieved
                                                                                                                     In brackets (...): Individual
electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2020.                  29.2 %             34.0 %                                                  304
In addition to the predictable and constant generation of run of river pow-
er plants for base load coverage, the provision of reserve power and peak
load to ensure security of supply and, in particular, control power to main-          Wind energy
                                                                                                                                                        Hydro power
tain grid stability in an increasingly flexible energy market is becoming
                                                                                                       303
more and more important. In Europe, these requirements are primarily met                            (495; 61 %)                        351
by high-efficiency pumped storage and storage hydro power plants with a                                                             (355; 99 %)
total installed bottleneck capacity of more than 47,443 MW.
Hydro power is therefore not only an extremely efficient, reliable and stor-                         180
                                                                                                  (232; 77 %)                111
able form of energy, but also an indispensable renewable source of energy                                                (103; 108 %)
                                                                                                                   7
which has to be conserved and further developed within the framework of                                       (11; 60 %)
the energy transition.
                                                                                     Biomass
For more than 20 years, the VGB PowerTech supports an intensive techni-
cal exchange of experience between leading hydro power operators for the
                                                                                                             Geothermal    Solar energy
ongoing improvement of efficiency.

                                                                                                                                    Source: Eurostat 2018 (data base: 2016)

                                                                                                                                                            PAG E 4 – 5
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                                    EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

WIND ENERGY – A MAINSTAY OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION
In order to meet the European Union’s targets for the energy and climate
package by 2020, it is also imperative to further expand the use of wind          Wind power:
energy. In Germany at the end of 2017, around 29,844 wind turbines with           Capacities in Europe
                                                                                  end of 2017 in MW
a total capacity of 56,132 MW were in operation. At that time, the installed
capacity of wind turbines in Europe was 177,506 MW and worldwide                          Total Europe*:
                                                                                                                                         FI
539,123 MW.                                                                               177,506 MW
                                                                                                                       NO              2,071
A retrospective analysis of the wind turbine market reveals continuous fur-                                           1,162 SE
                                                                                                                           6,619
ther development of system technology, accompanied by increasing rated                                                              ES 310
power, rotor diameter and hub height. From the first small plants with an                     IR                      DK              LV 66        RU
                                                                                                                                                   15
                                                                                                                     5,476
average output of around 30 kW and rotor diameters of less than 15 m in                     3,127
                                                                                                      UK      NL                   LT 493
                                                                                                    18,872   4,341                         BY
the mid-1980s, machines with a rated power of 8 MW and more as well as                                              DE            PL
                                                                                                                                             3
                                                                                                           BE
rotor diameters of 160 m have been developed. Wind turbines have already                                  2,843   56,132         5,782

paid for themselves in terms of energy after three to seven months of op-                                    LU
                                                                                                        FR 120
                                                                                                                           CZ
                                                                                                                           308
                                                                                                                                                 UA
                                                                                                                                                 592
                                                                                                                                 SK 3
eration. This means that after this time the turbine has produced as much                             13,759 CH 70       AT
                                                                                                                        2,632 HU        RO
energy as is required for its production, operation and disposal. In addition      PT
                                                                                                                          SI HR
                                                                                                                               329     3,029
to the consistent further development of system technology, the optimiza-         5,316     ES
                                                                                          23,170
                                                                                                                     IT
                                                                                                                   9,479
                                                                                                                           3 613
                                                                                                                                         BG
tion of maintenance strategies in particular will play a decisive role in the                                                            691
future in order to increase technical availability and thus economic effi-                                                          GR              TR
                                                                                                                                                   6,857
                                                                                                                                   2,651
ciency. Especially reliability, weight, costs and efficiency play a key role in
this respect.
                                                                                                                                                   CY 158

                                                                                                                               * Including not listed countries. Source: WindEurope
BIOMASS – THE ALL-ROUNDER
Energy production from biomass is a decisive component of the energy
transition. Currently, 180 TWh of electricity is produced from biomass in
Europe, which means that biomass accounts for 19 % of renewable electric-                             Biomass: Development of electricity generation in the EU
ity generation. Biomass is used as a fuel in thermal power plants or is fer-                                                          Sweden       Finland     Germany      United Kingdom      EU-28
mented to produce methane in biogas plants. Biomass power plants per-                                                          250
form the same tasks for the stability of the electricity grid as fossil-fired
power plants. They are suitable for base load as well as for the supply of

                                                                                 Electricity generation in billion (109) kWh
balancing and control power. In addition, it is also possible to convert coal-                                                 200
fired power plants to biomass in order to continue using existing sites. Bio­
gas is usually used in gas engines to generate electricity or can be feeded
into the natural gas grid. This contributes a considerable storage potential.                                                  150
Biomass power plants and biogas plants can be used both in centralized and
distributed systems. Biomass, as an all-round renewable energy source, is
therefore an indispensable component of future energy supply systems.                                                          100
Since 2002, VGB PowerTech supports an intensive exchange of experience
on energy generation from biomass. The topic biogas was added in 2007.
The exchange of experience takes place in cooperation with the correspond-                                                      50
ing committees of conventional power generation. This ensures that exist-
ing know-how in power plant technology is maintained and deepened.
                                                                                                                                 0
                                                                                                                                     2010   2011   2012      2013   2014   2015   2016        2020
                                                                                                                                                                      Year

                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Eurostat

                                                                                                                                                                                     PAG E 6 – 7
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                      EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

CONTRIBUTION OF WIND ENERGY TO THE SECURE PROVISION OF CAPACITY IN EUROPE

F   rom 2011 to 2017 the cumulative rated capacity of wind turbines in
    Germany almost doubled (+107 %) to about 56,000 MW. The annual
wind electricity production of 107 TWh accounted for around 18 % of
                                                                             From the beginning of 2015 to the end of 2017, the cumulative rated ca-
                                                                             pacity of wind turbines in 21 European countries increased by almost one
                                                                             third to 170,000 MW (Germany’s share: almost one third) and annual
total generation in Germany. With regard to the contribution of wind en-     wind power electricity production by almost one fifth to 342 TWh.
ergy to the security of supply, the development of the annual minimum        The utilisation of the „European wind park“ amounts to about 24 % of the
values as a measure of the permanently available capacity over the year is   nominal capacity. The permanently available (secured) capacity in Europe
revealing: These values have remained at an unchanged low level of less      with the assumption of no grid losses occur is 4 to 5 % of the rated capacity
than 160 MW since 2011, although the cumulative nominal capacity of          in the period under review; in Germany it is 0.3 %. Thus, in terms of secu-
the “German wind portfolio” has almost doubled within the same time:         rity of supply, also for Europe a backup capacity must be available practi-
wind energy in Germany has replaced conventional ‒ schedulable ‒ power       cally up to the annual peak load plus reserves.
plant capacity of maximal 158 MW.
                                                                             Feed-in capacities in Europe range from 5 to 63 % of rated power and vary
Therefore state-of-the-art back-up-capacity is necessary up to the annual    (fluctuate) widely. The three trend lines show that changes in wind power
peak demand plus reserves. For comparison: in 2016, the Germany-wide         production are essentially determined by the annual wind supply. The sea-
annual peak demand of 80,400 MW occurred on 7 December at 17:45.             sonal sequence of wind power production known from Germany − signifi-
Photovoltaics are 100 % unavailable at night and in late winter afternoons   cantly higher in winter than in summer − does not change with an Europe-
(guaranteed output: 0 MW).                                                   wide distribution of wind turbines and production. There are no effects of
                                                                             an expansion-induced increase in the Europe-wide distribution of wind
                                                                             turbines on the minimum output.
Key Key
                          figures for wind
                              figures      energy
                                      for wind    in Germany
                                               energy        sincesince
                                                      in Germany    20112011                                                             Key Key
                                                                                                                                             figures for wind
                                                                                                                                                 figures      energy
                                                                                                                                                         for wind    in 21
                                                                                                                                                                  energy in European countries
                                                                                                                                                                            21 European        sincesince
                                                                                                                                                                                        countries     20152015
                                                                               Quarter-hourly resolution
                                                                                   Quarter-hourly  resolution                                                                                                                       Hourly resolution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Hourly resolution
                    60,000
                        60,000                                                                                                             100 100                                                                                                           AT   AT
                                                                                               56,164
                                                                                                    56,164
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             BE   BE
                    55,000
                        55,000                                Nominal capacity PN PN                                                                  90 90
                                                                 Nominal capacity                                                                                                                        Real Real
                                                                                                                                                                                                              datadata
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20172017                                 BG   BG
                    50,000
                        50,000                                                                                                                                                                           Real Real
                                                                                                                                                                                                              datadata
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20162016                                 CZ   CZ

                                                                                                                Standardised capacity P/PN in %
                                                                                                                                                      80 80

                                                                                                                                                  Standardised capacity P/PN in %
                                                                           44,580
                                                                                44,580                                                                                                                                                                       DE
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Real Real
                                                                                                                                                                                                              datadata
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20152015                                      DE
                    45,000
                        45,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                               DK   DK
                                                                                               39,408                                                 70 70                                              TrendTrend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                20152015
                                                                                                    39,408                                                                                                                                                   EE   EE
                    40,000
                        40,000                                              Maximum PMax PMax
                                                                               Maximum                                                                                                                   TrendTrend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                20162016                                     ES   ES
                                                         33,477
                                                              33,477                                                                                  60 60                                              TrendTrend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                20172017                                     FI   FI
                    35,000
                        35,000                                             32,926
Capacity in MW

                                                                                32,926
                 Capacity in MW

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             FR   FR
                                      28,712
                                           28,712
                    30,000
                        30,000                           26,268
                                                              26,268                                                                                  50 50                                                                                                  GR   GR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             IE   IE
                    25,000   22,870
                                  22,870
                        25,000                                                                                                                        40 40                                                                                                  IT   IT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LT   LT
                    20,000
                        20,000
                                                                                                                                                      30 30                                                                                                  NL   NL
                                                             Arithmetic mean
                                                                  Arithmetic  valuevalue
                                                                             mean    Pµ Pµ                                                                                                            Utilisation:   ≈ 24≈%24 %
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Utilisation:                                     NO
                    15,000
                        15,000                                                                 11,720
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  NO
                                                                                                    11,720                                                                                                                                                   PL
                                                                            8,8518,851
                                                                                                                                                      20 20                                                                                                       PL
                    10,000
                        10,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                               PT   PT
                                      5,0665,066         5,3885,388                                                                                                                                                                                          RO   RO
                         5,000                                                   Minimum  PMin PMin                                                   10 10Guaranteed capacity:
                                                                                                                                                              Guaranteed        ≈5%
                                                                                                                                                                          capacity:  PN% PN
                                                                                                                                                                                    ≈5
                             5,000                                                   Minimum                                                                                                                                                                 SE   SE
                                       88   88            121 121            105 105            158 158
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             UK   UK
                                  0   0                                                                                                                          0                  0
                                      2011
                                         20112012
                                                20122013
                                                       20132014
                                                              20142015
                                                                     20152016
                                                                            20162017
                                                                                   2017                                                                                             Jan Jan
                                                                                                                                                                                         Feb Feb
                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar Mar
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr Apr
                                                                                                                                                                                                       MayMay
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun Jun
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul Jul
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Aug Aug
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep Sep
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oct Oct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov Nov
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec Dec
                                                                  YearYear                                                                                                                                   Month
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Month
                                                    Sources: BMWi, BWE, Germany TSOs, VGB (own calculations)                                                                                                   Sources: German TSOs, entso-e, VGB (own calculations)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  PAG E 8 – 9
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                                      EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

DISTRIBUTED POWER GENERATION – NEW SUPPLY SYSTEM STRUCTURES

D     istributed generation is an essential part of the energy transition and
      will increase significantly in the coming years. However, the complex
system of distributed energy supply, consisting of generation – transmission
                                                                                 Growth of distributed power production in different regions
                                                                                            120,000

– distribution – consumption, must be considered in its entirety.                                            North America   Western Europe    Eastern Europe
Combined heat and power plants are mainly based on the classic piston                       100,000
engine process. In addition, fuel cells, micro gas turbines and Stirling en-
gines can open up new fields of application for combined heat and power

                                                                                Capacity in MW
(CHP). They represent important technical innovations, as they enable the                        80,000

use of CHP technology even in the very small power range. This applies in
particular to applications in the local heating sector, but also in the com-                     60,000
mercial and industrial sectors.
In connection with the increase in distributed energy generation, these sys-
tems will increasingly have to offer the necessary network services in the                       40,000

future, including the provision of control power.
To support the necessary measures, smart metering will now also be intro-                        20,000
duced in Germany since 2017 onwards, depending on consumption
(>10,000 kWh/a in 2017; >6,000 Wh/a in 2020 for private house-holds).
It has to be considered that a high standard of IT security must be main-                            0
                                                                                                          2014   2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020           2021 2022 2023
tained for the measurement and control systems.
                                                                                                                                        Year

                                                                                                                                                       Source: Navigant Research
STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES – AN IMPORTANT COMPONENT OF SYSTEM STABILITY

I  n parallel with the increase in decentralized energy supply and the steady
   increase in electricity generation from fluctuating renewable energy
sources, there is an urgent need to expand storage capacity in the future.
                                                                                  Specification         High capacity                                                High amount of energy

                                                                                  Storage time                   Seconds                          Minutes                    Hours (days)
The systems can be divided into central storage power plants, distributed
small storage facilities, and short or long-term storage facilities. It is also   Application
                                                                                  (examples)
                                                                                                          Redispatch                      ˝Black start“                Stand-alone networks,
                                                                                                                                                                       electricity trading
                                                                                                          Voltage stabilisation           Uninterruptible
possible to store electrical or thermal energy. A decisive criterion for the                                                              power supply                 Peak-load smoothing
                                                                                                          Frequency stabilisation                                      Load balacing
selection of the appropriate storage technology is the time range which is to                                                             Soft-hybrides
                                                                                                                                                                       Batterie-power vehicles
be covered. Choosing the right location also plays an important role.             Classification   Thermal                                   Local              Decentral            Central storage
                                                                                                                        Short-time storage
Market-driven conditions are required for the use of the various storage          technologies     storage                                   small storage      large batteries      power plants

technologies. The current possible alternatives include, for example, the         Storage
                                                                                  concepts         Sensitive storages   Double-layer         Lead-acid          Lead-acid            Pumped-storage
expansion of the electricity grid, making the existing power plant port-folio                      Latent storages      capacitors           batteries (Pb)     batteries (Pb)       power plants
                                                                                                                                             Lithium-Ion        Lithium-Ion          Compressed-air
more flexible, and also the use of demand side management.                                         Chemical
                                                                                                   storages
                                                                                                                        Superconducting
                                                                                                                        magnetic             batteries (LIB)    batteries (LIB)      power plants
At present, only the use of hydroelectric power in the form of pumped stor-                                             energy storage       Nickel-cadmium     Natrium-
                                                                                                                                             batteries (NiCd)   sulphur
                                                                                                                                                                                     Hydrogen-storage
age power plants is available as a fully developed technology. Large-scale                                              Fly-wheel            Nickel-metal-      batteries (NaS)      power plants
                                                                                                                                             hydrid batteries
battery systems have already proven their technical suitability for use in the                                                               (NiMH)
                                                                                                                                                                Redox-flow-
                                                                                                                                                                batteries (RFB)
                                                                                                   Type of storage
control power market and can also be used commercially in niche applica-
                                                                                                     Virtual storage
tions.                                                                                               Electrical (electromagnetic or -static field)
                                                                                                     Electro-chemical (chemical energy)
                                                                                                     Mechanical (kinetic or potential energy)

                                                                                                                                                                      Source: Fraunhofer ISI (2012)

                                                                                                                                                                                  PAG E 10 – 11
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                             EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

FLEXIBLE CONVENTIONAL POWER PLANTS – GUARANTEEING SECURITY OF SUPPLY

T    he CO2 emissions of coal-fired power plants have been gradually re-
     duced as a result of technological development. In consequence, the
average global efficiency has risen from roughly 30 % to about 33 %, and
                                                                                 The new power plants currently under construction have therefore been
                                                                                 designed for particularly flexible operation, especially in Germany.
                                                                                 Essential technical criteria for flexibility are stable minimum load, start-up
the consistent application of state-of-the-art technology with an efficiency     and shutdown times as well as minimum operation and downtimes, load
level of 44 % to 47 %, the CO2 volume could continue to be significantly         gradients and the control ranges in different load scenarios. Another com-
reduced worldwide. In countries with a growing share of fluctuating renew-       pletely different aspect is flexibility with regard to quality fluctuations in the
able energy sources in electricity generation, the primacy of efficiency is      main fuel and the use of substitute, refuse derived, fuels.
increasingly being replaced by the need for flexibility.
                                                                                 New and appropriately upgraded thermal power plants can contribute to
Generation by conventional plants must adapt quickly and flexibly to the         the integration of renewable energies into a modern power supply system
residual load at all times, i.e. be available to compensate for the difference   through their flexible operation. The focus of technical developments is on
between consumption and fluctuating feed-in from photovoltaic and wind           the exploitation of existing potential for flexible plant operation. Against
energy plants. Short-term feed-in fluctuations are triggered by the rapidly      the backdrop of the expansion targets for renewable energy throughout
increasing output of photovoltaic systems. The resulting effects become the      Europe, a broad and flexible thermal power plant portfolio will continue to
decisive driver for the day to day feed-in fluctuation with the increasing       be indispensable in the future in order to ensure economic efficiency and
intensity of solar radiation from spring onwards. In the medium to long          security of supply at all times.
term, the average cycle lies between strong and weak wind phases; in north-
western Europe, it corresponds to about three to five days. Due to limited
interconnection capacities, the necessary flexibility for permanent load bal-
ancing has to be met to a large extent by the power plants in Germany.
Flexibility parameters of thermal power plants:
                                                                                            High load gradients, low minimum load,
Flexibility of thermal power plants – State-of-the-art                                      short ramp-up times

                 1,300                                                                       Plant type                  Hard coal          Lignite              CCGT          Gas turbine
                                                                                             Lignite (e.g. BoA)                             Nuclear
                 1,200                                                                       Load gradient
                                                                                                                         2/4/8            2 /Max
                                                                                                                                              4 /capacity
                                                                                                                                                  8           4~1,300
                                                                                                                                                               / 8 / 12        8 / 12 / 15
Capacity in MW

                                                                                             Max
                                                                                             in %capacity
                                                                                                   per minute~1,000 MW                                                MW
                                     Nuclear power plants                                    Min capacity    ~420 MW                        Min capacity       ~520 MW
                 1,000                                                                       ... ramp rate
                                                                                             Max             +/-30 MW/min                   Max ramp rate      +/-63 MW/min
                                                                                             in the load range           40 ... 90        50 ... 90           40* ... 90       40* ... 90
                                                                                             of %
                                                                                             Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCGT)              Hard coal
                  800                                                                        Minimum load
                                                                                             Max capacity     ~2 x 440 MW                   Max capacity       ~800 MW
                                                                                             in % of                    40 / 25 / 15    60 / 40 / 20        50 / 40 / 30 *    50 / 40 / 20*
                                                     Lignite fired power plants              Min capacity     ~520*/260** MW                Min capacity       ~210 MW
                                                                                             nominal    capacity
                                                                                             Max ramp rate    +/-36 MW/min                  Max ramp rate      +/-20 MW/min
                  600
                             Combined Cycle                                                  Ramp-up time
                             Power Plants (CCGT)                                            *in two
                                                                                                 hours  (h),operation
                                                                                                    boiler               3/2/1            6/4/2             1,5 / 1 / 0,5
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                                         EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

NEW FRAMEWORK FOR THE OPERATION OF CONVENTIONAL POWER PLANTS

A     t the end of the last century, the development of the electricity sector was
      strongly influenced by the liberalisation of the energy market in Europe.
This led to a rethinking of the information policy of operational data of pow-
                                                                                     The trends shown in the diagram underline a steady increase of unplanned,
                                                                                     unavailable UA for coal-fired power plants from 1998 (approx. 3 %) to 2017
                                                                                     (approx. 8 %), while the planned share is declining since 2010. The unplanned
er plants. For example, in 1998 about 270 fossil-fired plants from Europe            share of gas turbines has remained constant on an average at approx. 3 % since
participated in the data collection of VGB´s KISSY-system (Power Plant In-           2007, while the planned share is 8 % on average.
formation System). By 2007 this number had risen to over 350 plants − with           When interpreting trends, the change in the KISSY database must be taken
the result that the average values of the early 1990s reflected a significantly      into account. The number of plants is constantly changing due to the decom-
different plant park than today. The legal requirements, such as the introduc-       missioning of old plants and the commissioning of new plants. However,
tion of the European ETS (Emissions Trading System) in 2005 or the pre-              KISSY‘s database has increased significantly over the last 15 years and has be-
ferred feed-in of renewables, led to more flexibility and partial load as well as    come much more international.
lower utilisation for fossil-fired plants. Other examples are the decommission-
ing of nuclear power plants in Germany (decided and started in 2011, which
                                                                                     Sources
will be completed in 2022) or the transition of a significant number of fossil-      Technical and Commercial Key Indicators for Power Plants,
fired power plants from the electricity market to the grid reserve. Due to these     VGB-S-002-03-2016-08-EN, VGB PowerTech, ISBN 978-3-86875-934-1 (eBook, free of charge)
framework conditions, the number of plants was then reduced to around 230            Availability of Power Plants 2008 – 2017, Edition 2018, VGB-TW 103Ve,
                                                                                     Issue 2018, VGB PowerTech, ISBN: 978-3-96284-087-7
in 2017. With these changes of the market and political requirement, a more
                                                                                     Analysis of Unavailability of Thermal Power Plants 2008 – 2017, VGB-TW 103Ae,
flexible start-up behaviour of the power plants is demanded or forced, which         Issue 2018, VGB PowerTech, ISBN: 978-3-96284-091-4
is reflected in the availability and in particular in the unavailability (UA) of
the plants.
Energy availabilty of European power plants                                                                  Unavailability (UA) of European power plants
                           Energy availabilty, coal                  Energy availabilty, natural gas                                    UA planned, coal         UA disposable, coal              UA not disposable, coal
                           Energy availabilty, coal                  Energy availabilty, natural gas                                    UA planned, nat. gas     UA disposable, nat. gas          UA not disposable, nat. gas.

              100                                                                                                             12

                                                                                                                              10
                   80
Energy availabiltyin %

                                                                                                              Unavailability in %
                                                                                                                                    8
                   60

                                                                                                                                    6

                   40
                                                                                                                                    4

                   20
                                                                                                                                    2

                         0                                                                                                          0
                         1998    2000     2002        2004   2006   2008      2010   2012      2014    2016                         1998      2000    2002     2004   2006     2008        2010    2012     2014      2016
                                                                       Year                                                                                                        Year

                                                                                                                                                                                                       PAG E 14 – 15
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                              EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

NUCLEAR POWER – CONTINUED EXPANSION WORLDWIDE

I  n 2017, electricity generation from nuclear power was around 2,490 bil-
   lion kWh worldwide and slightly above the 2016 figure of about 2,477 bil-
lion kWh. The nuclear-based generation is mainly determined by the shut-
                                                                               Electricity generation from nuclear power worldwide
                                                                               100                                                                                  3,000
downs of Japanese nuclear power plants following the Fukushima event and                    Electricity generation from nuclear power plants in billion (109) kWh
                                                                                            Availability in %
the political decision in Germany to shut down – first temporarily and then                                                                                         2,500
permanently – 8 nuclear power plant units. The share of nuclear power in
worldwide electricity generation has been roughly at some 11 %. The EU is
                                                                                                                                                         Others     2,000
the leading economic area worldwide in nuclear energy production with 14
countries operating nuclear power plants and a production of about 796 bil-                                                                              Japan
                                                                                50                                                                                  1,500
lion kWh.
Since the first commercial nuclear power plant was commissioned in Calder                                                                                 USA

Hall in the United Kingdom in 1956, around 78,810 billion kWh of elec-                                                                                              1,000

tricity have been produced on a cumulated basis. This corresponds to about
three times the current annual global electricity demand. The growth of                                                                                             500
                                                                                                                                                           EU
nuclear electricity generation in the 1980s is remarkable. During that time,
large power plant projects with unit outputs in excess of 1,000 MW, which        0                                                                                  0
had been launched in the 1970s due to the pressure of the first oil price       1956 1960         1970          1980         1990           2000       2010
                                                                                                                                     Year
crisis, went into operation and provided considerable generation capacity.
Today, the operation of nuclear power plants is characterised by high avail-
ability with a worldwide average of nearly 80 %.                                                                         Source: atw – Int. Journal for Nuclear Power 5/2018
NUCLEAR POWER: PLANTS, PLANNED SHUTDOWNS, NEW PLANTS AND PROJECTS

             USA
           France                                            58 - 2 + 1
                                                                                        99 + 2 + 18          4 +1 +2
                                                                                                                  4+2
                                                                                                                            Finland
                                                                                                                            Hungary
                                                                                                                                                 C     urrently 449 nuclear power plants with a
                                                                                                                                                       total capacity of 420,383 MW are being op-
                                                                                                                                                 erated worldwide in 31 countries: another 57
            Japan                                    42 + 2 - 4                     39 + 18 + 32                            China                plants are under construction, while roughly 200
  United Kingdom                 15 + 10                                                                          3 +1      Argentina
                                                                                                                                                 plants are being planned or pre-planned to be
           Russia                          36 + 6   + 16                                                      2 +1 + 4      Brazil
                                                                                                                                                 commissioned by 2030 (state December 2017).
         Canada                      19 + 7                                                                       2+2       Mexico
        Germany          7 -7                                                                                5 +2+2
                                                                                                                                                 Following the Japanese events of March 11,
                                                                                                                            Pakistan
      South Korea                     24 + 4 + 12                                                                      2    South Africa
                                                                                                                                                 2011, new built plans were abandoned in Italy
            India                   22 + 6 + 8         Nuclear power plants worldwide                          1-1+1        Armenia
                                                                                                                                                 and Switzerland only. This does not apply to the
          Ukraine                15 + 2                    in operation 2018: 449                                      1    The Netherlands      plants in e.g. East and South East Europe, Asia,
          Sweden             8                                                                                    2+2       Romania              states of the Middle East as well as North and
            Spain        7                                                                                        1+1       Slowenia             South America. The impact of the current North-
          Belgium        7                                                                                        1+1       Iran                 American shale gas boom on local power plant
    Taiwan, China       6 +2                                                                                     +4 + 2     UAE                  structure as well as plant operation and construc-
                                                                                                                    +4      Poland
         Bulgaria     2 +2
                                                                                                                    +1      Lithuania
                                                                                                                                                 tion of new nuclear power plants cannot be esti-
         Slowakia      4 +2+2                                                                                                                    mated yet.
                                                                                                                    +4      Vietnam
      Switzerland      5-1
                                                                                                                +3 +1       Turkey               Long-term planable perspectives in terms of elec-
   Czech Republic      6+2                                                                                         +2       Belarus
                                                                                                                   +2       Bangladesh
                                                                                                                                                 tricity generation costs and nuclear fuel supply
                                                                                                                                                 motivate investors to launch new construction
 New build: 57                      Planned shut-downs: 14                          Projects: 200 (including projects in further 14 countries)
                                                                                                                                                 programmes.
Sources: IAEA, atw – Int. Journal for Nuclear Power, status: 6/2018

                                                                                                                                                                                PAG E 16 – 17
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                         EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

SMALL MODULAR REACTORS (SMR)

T    he development of advanced reactor types − mainly based on the relia-
     ble light water reactor technology − has been pushed worldwide over
the past decades. Today, nuclear power plants can be built and operated in a
                                                                                 These concepts are characterised above by the following properties:
                                                                                 ll Highest safety standards through passive systems or physically inherent
                                                                                    safety features.
reliable regulatory environment at competitive prices and with the highest       ll Modular design. Depending on requirements, single modules can be
safety standards. These Generation III+ reactors now are the basis for new          build at a site step by step and optimised to individual local require-
construction programmes and will continue to do so in the coming decades.           ments and investment. The modular design also enables modular
But the geographical focus of nuclear new build is shifting. The future new         construction with all the advantages of series production.
construction programmes will focus on the Asian countries that already use       ll Long maintenance intervals and operating times for nuclear fuel loading
nuclear energy today and on “newcomer” countries in Africa and Asia.                for several years. This results in low operating costs.
However, nuclear technology also offers many opportunities for further           ll Installation of the modules in underground caverns and thus also close
development and innovation beyond the reliable nuclear power plant types            to the demand. In addition to power generation, this also makes it
with outputs of up to 1,600 MW that have been commercially introduced               possible to supply district or process heat.
into the markets. A particular interest of concepts and projects lies in small   ll Island operation. Remote regions can be self-sufficiently supplied with
and medium capacity reactors up to approx. 300 MW, the so-called “Small             energy − electricity and heat − from SMR.
Modular Reactors” (SMR).
(1)      (3)

      Some examples for “Small Modular Reactors”:
      (MR, capacity < 300 MW)
      ll Integral Pressurized Water Reactor (IPWR) by NuScale:
         12 modules with a total capacity of 600 MWe. (1)
      ll TerraPower: Traveling Wave Reactor. Steps of the project. (2)
      ll High-temperature reactors in a complex supply system:
         Concept for the supply with electricity, heat and hydrogen
         for private consumers and industry. (3)
(2)

                                                                PAG E 18 – 19
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                                                   EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

NEW POWER GENERATION CAPACITIES REQUIRED

F    or more than two decades, European electricity generation has been in-
     vesting predominantly in renewable energy sources and gas-fired power
plants, whereas in the 1970s and 1980s, investments focused on conven-
                                                                                    The future of today´s electricity generating capacities in operation
                                                                                                                     1,000
tional coal-fired and nuclear power plants. This structural change is above all                                                                                     Other
the result of various financial support systems for renewables in the indi-                                                                                         Geothermal

                                                                                      Capacity in operation in GW*
vidual European countries.                                                                                            800
                                                                                                                                                                    Hydro
Conventional power plants in Europe, mainly coal-fired and nuclear power                                                                                            Photovoltaic
plants, have therefore now reached a technical age at which future decom-                                                                                           Waste
                                                                                                                      600
missioning is foreseeable. The typical technical lifetimes of coal-fired power                                                                                      Peat
plants are about 40 years, those of nuclear power plants about 60 to 80                                                                                             Biomass
years, and those of hydroelectric power plants about 100 years. In addition,                                          400                                           Wind, offshore
it is also foreseeable that in the coming years, renewables capacities will
                                                                                                                                                                    Wind, onshore
increasingly reach the end of their technical operating life; the service life of
                                                                                                                                                                    Nuclear
wind power and photovoltaic systems is considered to be 20 to 30 years.                                               200
Based on typical service life data and individual political decisions (e.g.                                                                                         Oil
phasing out nuclear power in Germany by 2022), it can be estimated that                                                                                             Lignite
by the year 2030 around 30 % of the electricity generation capacities cur-                                              0                                           Hard coal
rently in operation in Europe will be decommissioned. By 2050, this figure                                                   2015   2025   2035     2045 2050
                                                                                                                                  Year
will be around 80 %.                                                                 * ˝Mortality“, Base: Capacities in operation end of 2014
This estimate makes it clear that with today‘s time horizons for planning,
construction and commissioning of power generation plants of 10 years and
more, suitable replacement capacities for a secure electricity supply will
have to be prepared in good time – now.                                                                           Source: Investment Requirements in the EU electricity sector up to 2050
                                                                                          Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Energy and Environment, Energy Technology
PLANNED AND ANNOUNCED NEW CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN EUROPE

T     he need to replace existing power generation capacities in Europe has
      led many companies to plan new construction projects. Despite the
massive expansion of energy from renewables, coal, natural gas and nuclear
                                                                                    Projected and announced power plant capacities in Europe

energy continue to be the most important primary energy sources for reliable            Share of energy source 2018    Gas (33,348 MW, 28.0 %)
available power generation. Highly efficient new plants are replacing less                                             Oil (0 MW, 0 %)
efficient power plants. In addition to a significant reduction in CO2 emis-
sions, new power plants will also reduce further emissions and their increased                                         Hard coal (13,915 MW, 11.7 %)
flexibility will contribute to a secure electricity supply and the integration of                                      Lignite and peat (2,260 MW, 1.9 %)
renewable energy into the supply system. However, due to a lack of long-
term political framework conditions across Europe, investment in new ca-                                               Nuclear (24,270 MW, 20.3 %)

pacities is stalled.                                                                                                   Hydro (10,595 MW, 8.8 %)
According to the updated VGB PowerTech new construction statistics, the
                                                                                                                       Wind (33,603 MW, 28.2 %)

                                                                                                                       {
technology of gas-fired power plants accounts for the largest share of the
available capacity of conventional plants at around 28 % (approximately                                                    Biomass
                                                                                                                           (291 MW, 0.3 %)
33,348 MW). With a share of approx. 20 % (24,270 MW) these are fol-
                                                                                                                           Residues and waste
lowed by nuclear power plant projects, particularly in Eastern European                                                    (120 MW, 0.1 %)
countries. The new construction projects for power plants fired by hard coal                                               Other renewables
and lignite are in third place with a combined share of around 14 %                        Total*: 118,952 MW              (550 MW, 0.7 %)
(16,175 MW) of the total capacity.
Projects based on non-schedulable generation technologies continue to fo-
cus on wind power plants with a capacity share of approx. 28 %                                                           * without photovoltaic, oil: no projects.
(33,603 MW).                                                                                                             Source: Data base VGB, state: 9/2018

                                                                                                                                         SEI T E 20 – 21
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                        EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

LARGE COMBUSTION PLANTS – BEST AVAILABLE TECHNIQUES REFERENCE DOCUMENT

T    he European (EU) targets for emissions from power plants were adopt-
     ed by the Member States on 28 April 2017 at the proposal of the Euro-
pean Commission as part of the LCP BREF revision procedure (Large Com-
                                                                                Working Group (TWG) following its publication. The comments and
                                                                                amendments thus collected from the members were forwarded to the Seville
                                                                                office. It took the EIPPCB almost two years (end of March 2015) to analyse
bustion Plants ‒ Best Available Techniques Reference Document). The             and evaluate the 8,500 comments received.
document describes the state of the art for large combustion plants and sets    At the final meeting of the TWG in June 2015, the EIPPCB presented and
BAT-AEL (Best Available Techniques ‒ Associated Emission Levels) for dif-       discussed a revised final draft of the BAT conclusions and a comprehensive
ferent emissions that can be achieved with Best Available Techniques.           background paper. After incorporating the new findings, the paper was
On 17 August 2017, the BAT conclusions for large combustion plants were         submitted to the Information Exchange Forum (Article 13 Forum) consist-
published in the Official Journal of the EU. This updates the previous BAT      ing of the EU Commission, Member States and representatives of industry
reference document from 2006 and redefines the state of the art. All large      and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) for comments. Following
combustion plants with a rated thermal capacity of at least 50 MW are af-       this processing step, the documents, together with the Forum’s written
fected. On the date of publication of the conclusions, the four-year imple-     comments, were forwarded to the so-called Article 75 Committee of the
mentation period started for the EU member states. During this period, the      EU Commission and Member States. There, the adoption of the new LCP
emission limit values must be incorporated into national law in order to        BREF was decided on 28 April 2017.
ensure compliance with the specified ranges in the future.
The revision process for the LCP BREF began in October 2011 with a kick-
off meeting in Seville, Spain. As part of this so-called Seville process, the
EIPPCB (The European Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Bu-
reau) published the first draft of the new document in June 2013. It was
reviewed in particular and commented on by the members of the Technical
EU reduction targets for SO2, NOx and volatile organic compounds (NMVOC)
for the period 2020/2029 and from 2030 (reference year = 2005).                          Reduction of important emissions from thermal power plants
              Reduction   SO2 2020/2029      NOx 2020/2029       NMVOC 2020/2029         in public electricity and heat supply in the EU-28
Region                     and from 2030      and from 2030        and from 2030
Austria                     26 %    41 %        37 %   69 %          21 %   36 %
                                                                                                                    120
Belgium                     43 %    66 %        41 %   59 %          21 %   35 %                                                    NOx           PM2.5             SOx
Bulgaria                    78 %    88 %        41 %   58 %          21 %   42 %
Croatia                     55 %    83 %        31 %   57 %          34 %   48 %
Cyprus                      83 %    93 %        44 %   55 %          45 %   50 %                                    100
Czech Republic              45 %    66 %        35 %   64 %          18 %   50 %

                                                                                         Emissions (2004 = 100 %)
Denmark                     35 %    59 %        56 %   68 %          35 %   37 %
Estonia                     32 %    68 %        18 %   30 %          10 %   28 %
Finland                     30 %    34 %        35 %   47 %          35 %   48 %
                                                                                                                     80
France                      55 %    77 %        50 %   69 %          43 %   52 %
Germany                     21 %    58 %        39 %   65 %          13 %   28 %
Greece                      74 %    88 %        31 %   55 %          54 %   62 %
Hungary                     46 %    73 %        34 %   66 %          30 %   58 %
Ireland                     65 %    85 %        49 %   69 %          25 %   32 %                                     60
Italy                       35 %    71 %        40 %   65 %          35 %   46 %
Latvia                       8%     46 %        32 %   34 %          27 %   38 %
Lithuania                   55 %    60 %        48 %   51 %          32 %   47 %
Luxembourg                  34 %    50 %        43 %   83 %          29 %   42 %                                     40
Malta                       77 %    95 %        42 %   79 %          23 %   27 %
The Netherlands             28 %    53 %        45 %   61 %           8%    15 %
Poland                      59 %    72 %        30 %   39 %          25 %   26 %
Portugal                    63 %    83 %        36 %   63 %          18 %   38 %
                            77 %    88 %        45 %   60 %          25 %   45 %                                     20
Romania
Slovakia                    57 %    82 %        36 %   50 %          18 %   32 %
Slovenia                    63 %    92 %        39 %   65 %          23 %   53 %
Spain                       67 %    88 %        41 %   62 %          22 %   39 %
Sweden                      22 %    22 %        36 %   66 %          25 %   36 %                                      0
United Kingdom              59 %    88 %        55 %   73 %          32 %   39 %                                          2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EU-28 total                 59  %   78 %        42 %   62 %          28 %   40 %                                                                                   Year

                                                                 Source: EU Commission                                                             Source: EEA (European Environment Agency) 2018

                                                                                                                                                                           PAG E 22 – 23
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                                 EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

CLIMATE POLICY: GLOBAL APPROACH NEEDED
Between 1990 and 2014, the total greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) in the                                    Current Policies         New Policies         Sustainable Dev.
European Union (EU-28) decreased by 20 % (World Bank, state: 2016). At                                                         in billion tce
the beginning of 2014, the EU announced new targets for the climate and

                                                                                                 2015

                                                                                                            2025

                                                                                                                        2040

                                                                                                                                   2025

                                                                                                                                                 2040

                                                                                                                                                           2025

                                                                                                                                                                       2040
energy policy which are to be met by 2030. Compared to the 1990 reference
values, GHGE are to be reduced by 40 % in order to support the global
target of limiting global warming to less than 2 °C. By 2050, GHGE are to       Coal            5,482      5,950       7,207      5,489         5,613     4,391       2,539
be reduced by 80 to 95 %. It is also planned to raise the annual upper limit    Oil             6,181      6,879       7,824      6,619         6,900     6,067       4,723
(cap) of GHGE from currently 1.74 to 2.2 % for the post-2020 period.
                                                                                Natural gas     4,197      5,020       6,689      4,909         6,223     4,853       4,940
For the stabilisation and actual reduction of GHGE emissions, action, based
                                                                                Nuclear           959      1,199       1,424      1,199         1,431     1,314       1,990
on the principle of effectiveness and cost efficiency, has to be taken world-
wide. Cost-efficient measures such as insulation of buildings, fossil-fired     Hydro             477        584         733        590           761       613         851

power plants with higher efficiencies, the application of CCU (Carbon Cap-      Biomass         1,841      2,153       2,469      2,186         2,573     1,817       2,226
ture and Utilisation), expanded use of renewables or further use of technolo-   Other             286        630       1,223        700         1,619       904       2,851
gies with low GHGE like nuclear energy must be applied with priority and        renewables
without prejudice in order to mitigate the globally increasing amount of        Total*         19,476     22,414      27,570     21,689         25,120   19,887      20,120
GHGE.                                                                           Share of         60 %       63 %        70 %       63 %          70 %      63 %        68 %
The International Energy Agency (IEA) developed a stabilisation concept         non-OECD
                                                                                countries
which is to stabilise GHGE at a value of 450 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere
(“Sustainable Development Scenario”) through a bundle of measures in com-       IEA stabilisation concept. Share of the energy sources.
parison to the reference scenario (“Current Policies”).                         * incl. roundings
                                                                                                                                      Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017
CO2 emissions total and per capita from fossil fuel combustion                                                    CO2 emissions from different power plants
    for selected regions for 2014 and changes from 1990 to 2014                                                       in g CO2 equivalent per kWh,
                                                                                                                      calculated for the life cycle of the power plant
                                      t CO2 per capita             billion (109) t CO2 per year
                                                                                                                                                                                         BoA technology
                                          0      1            2      3         4           5         6           20
                                                                                                                            Lignite                                                                950 to 1,230

                                  EU-28                                                             6.4
Region | Change 1990 to 2014

                                 - 21 %                              3,241
                                                                                                                         Hard coal                                                       790 to 1,080
                                  India              1,7
                               + 262 %                     2,238                                                                Oil                                                  890

                                  USA                                                                     16.5
                                 +4 %                                                 5,254                            Natural gas                                     640
                                                                    143                                                      Gas
                                  China                                                             7.5                  combined                410 to 430                         Electricity generation with CCU
                               + 321 %                                                            10,291                    cycle
                                                                   127
                                                                                                                       Photovoltaik              35 to 160
                                World                                               4.97
                               + 63 %                                                                      36,138
                                                                                                                           Nuclear     16 to 23

                                          0      1            2      3         4           5         6           30
                                                                                                                             Wind      8 to 16                           Result range due to different
                                                                                                                                                                         methods of calculation
                                                                                                                      Hydro power      4 to 13                           and different site implications.

Sources: U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Environmental System Science Data Infrastructure for a                                 Sources: PSI Paul Scherrer Institut/Switzerland, ESU-services, VGB (own calculations)
                                                              Virtual Ecosystem (ESS-DIVE) 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                               PAG E 24 – 25
FAC TS A N D FI G U R ES                                                                                      EL E C T R I C I T Y G EN ER AT I O N 2018 l 2019

VGB POWERTECH E.V.

VGB PowerTech e.V. is the international technical association for generation   Structure of the VGB membership:
and storage of power and heat with head office located in Essen (Germany).
Currently VGB has 437 members, comprising operators, manufacturers, and        Fossil-fired power plants			            227,500                  MW
institutions connected with energy engineering.                                Nuclear power plants			                  34,500                  MW
Our members come from 33 countries and represent an installed power plant      Hydro power plants and other renewables  40,000                  MW
capacity of 302,000 MW located in Europe.                                      Total					302,000                                                MW
The activities of VGB PowerTech comprise:                                      EU: 414 members in 20 countries
ll Provision of an international platform for the accumulation, exchange,      Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
   and transfer of technical know-how.                                         France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg,
ll Acting as “gate-keeper” and provider of technical know-how for the          The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden
   member companies and other associations of our industry.
ll Harmonisation of technical and operational standards.
ll Identification and organisation of joint R&D activities.                    Other Europe: 11 members in 3 countries
ll Exclusive member access to qualified expert knowledge.                      Russia, Switzerland, Turkey
ll Representation of members´ interests.
                                                                               Outside Europe: 12 members in 10 countries
VGB is performing these tasks in close cooperation with Eurelectric on
                                                                               Argentina, Canada, China, Japan, Malaysia,
European-level and further national and international associations.
                                                                               Mongolia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, USA

                                                                               Total:   437 members in 33 countries
TASKS OF THE INTERNATIONAL
TECHNICAL ASSOCIATION VGB POWERTECH
                                                                                              General Assembly
VGB PowerTech e. V. supports its members with all technical
issues of generation and storage of electricity and heat in                                         Board               Technical Advisory
order to further optimise                                       Scientific Advisory Board                                     Board
                                                                                                 of Directors
ll Safety
ll Efficiency                                                                                   Management
ll Environmental friendliness
ll Economic efficiency and                                      Competence Areas for the Generation and Storage of Power and Heat
ll Occupational safety and health protection
                                                                   Nuclear                     Renewables      Environmental
                                                                               Power Plant                      Technology,      Technical
The competence areas “Nuclear Power Plants”, “Power Plant           Power                     and Distributed Chemistry, Safe-
                                                                               Technologies     Generation                        Services
                                                                    Plants                                     ty and Health
Technologies”, “Renewables and Distributed Generation”,
and “Environmental Technology, Chemistry, Safety and
Health” are dealing with all aspects of nuclear, conventional
and renewable generation. They are cooperating closely to
fully exploit the synergies.
The engineering services of the “Technical Services”, the
VGB Research Foundation, data bases, and publications. e.g.
the technical journal VGB POWERTECH perfectly round
off the portfolio of expertise of VGB PowerTech.                                              VGB Committees

                                                                                                                                    PAG E 26 – 27
VGB PowerTech e.V.        Editorial: Oliver Then (responsible),
Deilbachtal 173           Mario Bachhiesl, Sven Göhring, Thomas Linnemann,
45257 Essen | Germany     Ludger Mohrbach, Stefan Prost and Christopher Weßelmann
                          August 2018
Phone: +49 201 8128 – 0   www.vgb.org | info@vgb.org
Fax: +49 201 8128 – 302
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