Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021

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Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021
Emerging Trends in Real Estate®
An uncertain impact
Europe 2021
Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021
Emerging Trends in Real Estate®
An uncertain impact
Europe 2021
A publication from PwC and the Urban Land Institute

Front cover image: Berlin, Germany (Getty Images)     Image: Working from home during lockdown (Getty Images)
Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021
Contents
                              4             Business environment

                               20          Real estate capital markets

                                      32                               Markets to watch

                          46                                 Investing in society

                                      56                            City prospects

“COVID-19 will not be the last novel coronavirus,
so we’ve got to factor this into our thinking about
what the future looks like.”
Director, global investment manager

                                                        Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021   1
Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021
Executive summary
“COVID hasn’t necessarily brought anything new.        COVID-19 has transformed the way we
                                                       live and work. As Europe’s property
It’s just accelerating all of the trends. Everything   leaders acknowledge, all aspects
that was being disrupted is being disrupted at a       of real estate have been disrupted
                                                       by the pandemic and the resulting
much faster pace.”                                     business upheaval.

CIO, pan-European investment manager                   This is a hugely challenging time for
                                                       European real estate, dealing first with a
                                                       sharp recession in 2020 and now facing
                                                       the prospect of a protracted and fragile
                                                       economic recovery with the added threat
                                                       of further waves of COVID-19.

                                                       The industry leaders canvassed
                                                       for Emerging Trends in Real Estate
                                                       Europe also acknowledge that we are
                                                       experiencing two shifts which are, as
                                                       one interviewee puts it, “not on the
                                                       same wavelength”: a cyclical downturn
                                                       juxtaposed with long-term structural
                                                       changes to real estate.

                                                       Throughout it all, real estate generally is
                                                       still seen as one of the few asset classes
                                                       to generate acceptable returns at a time
                                                       of low or negative interest rates. And the
                                                       conventional focus of institutional capital
                                                       towards core real estate during economic
                                                       uncertainty is once again evident, just as it
                                                       was following the global financial crisis.

                                                       However, Emerging Trends Europe’s
                                                       constituents also recognise that the
                                                       pandemic is posing immediate challenges
                                                       to the security of income from offices
                                                       and retail while accelerating long-term
                                                       trends in these two mainstay sectors of
                                                       real estate, by shaping a world where we
                                                       can expect more remote working and
                                                       online shopping.

                                                       Image: Cuatro Torres business district,
                                                       Madrid, Spain (Getty Images)

2     Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021
Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021
Security of real estate income is one       Some economies – notably                      Emerging Trends Europe also
of the big open questions facing            Germany’s – have avoided outright             reveals that the industry is starting
the industry. Emerging Trends               catastrophe so far. If anything,              to evaluate its wider role in society
Europe reveals that COVID-19                COVID-19 has served to reaffirm the           more seriously – from addressing
and the widespread problems                 safe-haven status of German cities,           diversity and inclusion in the
around non-payment of rent have             which led by Berlin are once again at         workplace to a far greater emphasis
encouraged – by default if nothing          the top of the city rankings.                 on the environmental, social and
else – increasing numbers of                                                              governance agenda. As we explain
investors and investment managers           The industry is also keeping faith in         in Chapter 4, the social upheaval
to look beyond real estate’s bond-          other cities it has backed in better          brought about by COVID-19 has the
like credentials and to assess the          times, including London and Paris.            potential to accelerate the growth and
underlying operational risk of the          From a long-term perspective, both            prominence of impact investing in the
occupiers. And though it is too             of these gateway cities are lauded            built environment.
early to draw conclusions on the            for the relative liquidity they offer
consequences for values, it is clear        investors. London is also generating          Though very early days, Europe’s
that the movement towards property          interest among some investors for             real estate industry is moving slowly
as a service, or operational asset class,   Brexit-related pricing discounts to           towards social impact becoming
is an accelerating trend.                   Continental markets.                          integrated in its overall investment
                                                                                          strategies rather than through
As one interviewee says, such               But a broader debate has begun                specialist funds or products.
uncertain and at times conflicting          around future city opportunities, given
market conditions can lead to               the lasting impact of COVID-19 on
“imperfect decision-making”, which          office working and on where European
is why the overall industry outlook for     businesses choose to locate. The
2021 is one of caution.                     industry sees the merits of small and         “Tenants and
                                            medium-sized cities, provided they are        occupiers want us to
To a great extent, the global health        well connected – transport connectivity
crisis has overshadowed otherwise           is overwhelmingly judged the most
                                                                                          act. In the past, we
serious geopolitical issues influencing     important factor in assessing cities.         didn’t need to listen
real estate, but they remain significant                                                  but the sector will be
concerns for survey respondents and         For 2021, the “flight to safety” for many
interviewees. The outcome of Brexit,        investors involves technology, which          challenged by society
the US election and trade wars all          extends beyond national borders.              to do more now.”
add to the uncertainty pervading the        The two leading property types in
markets right now, and little respite is    the sector rankings are logistics and
                                                                                          Pension fund investor
predicted for 2021.                         data centres. Both will benefit from
                                            the increased pace of digitalisation
On a purely cyclical basis, the industry    across Europe – widely regarded as a
draws some reassurance from the             positive trend reinforced by COVID-19.
absence of a late-cycle development         Rented residential is another favoured
boom, and consequently European             sector but for what seems now like an
real estate supply and demand is            old-fashioned virtue – the perceived
broadly in balance. But as many             security of its income.
interviewees point out, there is wide
variation in individual governments’
responses to the pandemic. Markets
are adjusting to the conditions at
different speeds.

                                                                                        Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021   3
Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021
Chapter 1

Business environment
“COVID is a game changer to the property industry, like
the global financial crisis was, but even more disruptive. As
well as introducing uncertainty, it will continue to impact
our prospects by accelerating a lot of things that were
going on in our business anyway.”

Director, global asset manager

4      Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021      Image: Empty train station in Berlin, Germany (Getty Images)
Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic has                    “The pandemic makes us more inclined
been described as a classic                  to tilt that way,” says one institutional
black swan event that no one                 investor in social infrastructure. “That
could have predicted. Though
                                             approach of only specialising in            That approach of only
                                             shopping centres, offices, or industrial
the global economy is expected               just feels and sounds really outdated       specialising in shopping
to recover from this exogenous               to me now.”                                 centres, offices, or
shock and eventually resume
                                                                                         industrial just feels and
its prior course, for the real               The pandemic is also shining a light
estate industry, COVID-19 is a               on the health and wellbeing of people       sounds really outdated to
game changer.                                in the workplace – wherever that            me now.
                                             workplace may be – which plays to the
As Emerging Trends in Real Estate            movement behind property as a service
Europe reveals, property professionals       but to an altogether higher level than in
are coming to terms with the idea of         pre-COVID-19 times.
a world where we can expect more
working from home, more online               But at the same time, the health
shopping, and less international travel—     crisis and the economic aftershock
all of which strike at the heart of how      are serving to question some of the
the industry serves its customers and        received wisdom around the built
conducts its business.                       environment, not least conventional
                                             work patterns and the hitherto favoured
COVID-19 as an accelerator of                move towards densification of Europe’s
such existing trends has been the            bigger cities.
main narrative for European real
estate in 2020. It is likely to remain       For many in the industry, real estate’s
so during the prevailing uncertain           saving grace is as a provider of secure
economic conditions.                         income compared with other investment
                                             classes. But even this previously
This is also a period of deeper reflection   unshakeable virtue is at risk when
on the role the built environment            businesses have no money to pay
must play in society. In the minds of        their rent.
many industry leaders, the pandemic
has reinforced the importance of the         This situation is perhaps at its
environmental, social, and governance        most extreme in the UK, where a
(ESG) agenda.                                government-approved moratorium on
                                             rent payments undermines the very idea
Some believe the social inequalities         of property as a service and instead
exacerbated by COVID-19 demand a             resurrects age-old landlord/tenant
greater response from real estate. Far       tensions. As one institutional player
from simply shoring up their defences        laments, it “threatens the sanctity of
against a cyclical downturn, they            income”. In other words, “the [UK]
believe that COVID-19 presents an            government is materially eroding the
opportunity to take part in a far bigger     appeal of the asset class” in what has
investment universe.                         been the most liquid of all European
                                             investment markets. By contrast, a far
                                             more collaborative approach has been
                                             seen to benefit both sides in Germany
                                             and the Netherlands, for instance.

                                                                                Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021   5
Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021
Chapter 1: Business environment

Cautious outlook                              Figure 1-1 Business prospects in 2021
for the industry

While confronting long-term,                                 Business confidence
fundamental questions about its place          2021                    23                                49                             28                    %
in society, the industry is facing the
immediate and difficult adjustment to          2020                     25                                      62                                13          %
life after the initial outbreak of COVID-19
and a European economy plunged into
recession during 2020. The interviews
and survey were conducted between
                                                              Business profitability
July and September, a period when
investment activity held up remarkably         2021                   20                       36                                44                       %
well. But with continuing business             2020                          37                                      48                        15         %
and travel restrictions, an undeniably
cautious outlook exists for the
coming year.

The survey shows a marked decline                             Business headcount
in business confidence for 2021,
                                               2021                   22                                 53                             25                    %
with almost half the respondents
expecting a fall in profits and a quarter      2020                               45                                      46                        9         %
anticipating job losses. “If most [real
                                                           Increase
                                                              0                20 same30
                                                                      10 Stay the             Decrease
                                                                                                40     50            60    70      80        90          100
estate] businesses aren’t planning
for staff reductions, I’d be pretty            Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021
surprised,” says one pan-European
investment manager.

                                              Figure 1-2 Real estate business sentiment 2011–2021

If most [real estate]                           6060
businesses aren’t
planning for staff                                 48
                                              % Increase

reductions, I’d be                                 36

pretty surprised.                                  24

                                                   12

                                                    00
                                                             2011     2012     2013    2014     2015     2016    2017     2018   2019   2020           2021

                                                              Business Confidence            Business Profitability         Business Headcount

                                                            Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021

6       Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021
Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021
When it comes to social issues affecting       Figure 1-3 Social-political issues in 2021
business in 2021, the ongoing pandemic
is unsurprisingly the biggest factor
behind the prevailing uncertainty. “It’s
hesitancy right now because there’s            Epidemics/pandemics                                                                25
not a lot of conviction in terms of the                              41                                            47                              8        4        %
longer-term solution here – a vaccine.         International political instability
I always go back to that,” says one
                                                                29                                      50                              11             9            1 %
global financier. “We’re all optimistic
people. We all want this to be behind          Environmental issues
us. I sense once we have clarity on that,                  22                                   43                           18               15                2    %
the transaction flow will return and that      Social equity/inequality
hesitancy will go away. Whereas now, it
                                                       17                                  45                            20                   16                2    %
seems like it’s pretty murky out there.”
                                               European political instability
The pandemic has underscored the                      14                                  48                            17                   18             3        %
risk of international political instability,   Housing affordability
which is the second highest concern for
                                                        17                                43                             24                       14            2    %
survey respondents already troubled
by Brexit and trade wars. According to         National political instability
some of the interviewees, other long-                   19                           31                      16                   23                   11            %
standing industry concerns – notably           Termination of government support packages
the environment and social inequality
                                                   12                           38                                26                     20                 4        %
– have been reinforced by COVID-19 as
well. One global investment manager            Mass migration
believes “the separation between the              9                       30                           27                          27                       7        %
haves and have-nots is becoming
untenable . . . that is really what            0 Very concerned
                                                      10      20                      40 concerned
                                                                               30Somewhat    50               60Neither/nor
                                                                                                                      70           80         90            100
the geopolitical issue is across the             Not very concerned             Not at all concerned
globe.” A private equity player adds:          Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021
“If COVID-19 hasn’t demonstrated
profound inequality, then what has?
It’s incredibly important because
carbon neutrality, housing . . . all of the
underlying issues that are driving an
ESG focus have just been heightened
by this inequality.”                           One global investment manager says:
                                               “I am worried about whether in Europe
It is noteworthy that housing                  we’ll see unemployment come up quite
affordability, social inequality, and          meaningfully at some point in Q4 [2020],                     It’s hesitancy right now
ESG are higher up the list of industry         Q1, or whenever it might be. And that                        because there’s not a lot
concerns than the imminent termination         spills over into consumer confidence
                                                                                                            of conviction in terms of
of government support measures,                and rent collections.” A pan-European
which will present an immediate                investment manager is more emphatic:                         the longer-term solution
demand-side challenge to real estate.          “Unemployment is going to be a                               here – a vaccine. I always
Even so, as many as half the survey            massive issue. And that goes to real
respondents are uneasy about the               estate fundamentals because it’s bums
                                                                                                            go back to that.
ending of the various measures, which          on seats, it’s consumers in shops, it’s
are estimated to have saved more than          occupants of hotels, it’s everything.
40 million European jobs during the            Very bad.”
worst of the crisis.

                                                                                                 Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021                          7
Emerging Trends in Real Estate An uncertain impact - Europe 2021
Chapter 1: Business environment

Rising unemployment undoubtedly
                                            Figure 1-4 European business environment in 2021
feeds into the uncertainty over
economic recovery – fragile at best.
Last year, when the industry was in
late-cycle mode, two-thirds of survey       Business issues
respondents were steeling themselves        European economic growth                                                                 25
for a downturn. Having already endured                                 41                                           49                                   5        4 1 %
a sharp recession in 2020, 90 percent
                                            Business interruption
of respondents are understandably
concerned about economic growth in                                 40                                        41                                7         10           2     %
2021. “I fear that we haven’t seen the      Global economic growth
worst yet despite coming out of the                               35                                         52                                     6         6           1 %
lockdown,” says one pan-European
                                            Health and wellbeing of staff
consultant. “We’re going to see the
economic impact more clearly in 2021.”                       24                                    46                            15                     13            2     %
                                            Business liquidity issues
Continuing business interruptions,
                                                        16                               46                              16                    17                 5         %
consequential liquidity issues, and
insolvencies among occupiers are big        Sudden shifts in consumer demand
industry worries, and they are clearly                  17                                46                               17                      17                 3     %
affecting sentiment. “I’m very positive     Cybersecurity
about the capital that will come into
                                                    13                              41                              23                         19                 4         %
the [real estate] market. Very negative
on the economy and how that will play       Digital transformation
out because I think we’re only at the               13                       28                         30                                22                  7             %
beginning of some of the bankruptcies       Deglobalisation
that we will see happen,” says one
                                                    9                       31                          30                                24                      6         %
pan-European investment manager.
                                            Currency volatility
Adds a private equity player: “There is         8                      27                          26                           30                            9             %
no sign of rents going up. There’s no
                                            Interest rate movements
sign of demand increasing. If anything,
                                                7                 21                     20                           37                                15                  %
both of those are going the opposite
direction. There’s a lot of asset classes   Inflation
that are in trouble because of the              6                 23                          25                           33                            13                 %
crisis. As long as government keeps
intervening and allowing tenants not            Very concerned                     Somewhat concerned             Neither/nor
                                            0        10      20                   30      40        50       60         70           80             90                100
to pay rent and not allowing banks to           Not very concerned                 Not at all concerned
enforce, you’re sort of in a standstill.
                                             Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021
And it could be a prolonged standstill
because of that.”

8       Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021
Image: La Défense, Paris, France (Getty Images)

At the same time, the industry             In that respect, “the perception
is paying close attention to how           that Germany is a safe haven will
individual governments are managing        be just further increased,” says one
the pandemic and subsequent                interviewee, summing up a common           Germany has got a strong
business interruptions, which in turn      view. “Germany has got a strong            economy, has managed
is influencing market confidence           economy, has managed the pandemic
and investment strategies for 2021.        pretty well, and is open for business.
                                                                                      the pandemic pretty well,
“The way governments handle the            It’s back in action,” says an investment   and is open for business.
crisis will have an impact on the          banker. A pan-European investment          It’s back in action.
attractiveness of the market for foreign   manager puts it another way: “Our
investors, because there’s that sense      business in Germany is growing more
of security that in times of crisis the    than any other part of our European
government has stepped in, has taken       network.” And as we explore further in
the right measures, and has protected      chapter 3, German cities, led by Berlin,
the value of the economy,” says one        are firmly established at the top of
private equity investor.                   Emerging Trends Europe’s city rankings,
                                           as they have been for several years.

                                                                             Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021       9
Chapter 1: Business environment

From deferrals                               Figure 1-5 European business environment over the next 3-5 years
to deglobalisation

Industry leaders are broadly
appreciative of the short-term boost                  Cybersecurity
provided by the various business-                                                52                              27                    21              %
support and stimulus measures
                                                      Global economic growth
across Europe, not least the European
Union’s overarching €750 billion                                           43                         21                     36                        %
pandemic recovery fund. However,                      European economic growth
some are questioning the economic                                          43                     23                        34                         %
consequences beyond 2021.
                                                      Business liquidity issues

“The tax deferrals, insolvency deferrals,                                       47                               38                         15         %
will have a huge impact on the demand                 Business interruption
side in the medium term because that                                  36                              36                          28                   %
will impact which companies will survive
                                                      Currency volatility
and what governments will do,” says
                                                                      33                                    54                               13        %
a German investment manager. “Will
they keep dying companies alive, which                Deglobalisation
possibly might have short-term benefits                            30                             45                                   25              %
for unemployment but a long-term
                                                      Health and wellbeing
negative impact on the recovery and the
                                                                 26                         40                               34                        %
dynamic of the recovery?”
                                                      Sudden shifts in consumer demand
Just over a third of survey respondents                       21                           49                                     30                   %
believe that both global and European
                                                      Interest rate movements
economic growth will improve over
                                                             21                                        70                                        9     %
the next five years, but more than 40
percent expect it to get worse. “Even if              Inflation
there is a vaccine, recovery will be slow                     23                                      63                                    14         %
because we have just put on so much
                                                      Digital transformation
more debt in the system and so many
                                                        7                  25                                     68                                   %
more stimulus packages. It seems as
if it’s not real money, but somebody           Get worse          Stay the same       Improve
needs to pay for it ultimately,” says a             0        10         20     30       40       50         60         70   80          90           100
Dutch institutional investor.                Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021

                                            The tax deferrals, insolvency deferrals, will have a
                                            huge impact on the demand side in the medium term
                                            because that will impact which companies will survive
                                            and what governments will do.

10      Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021
There is also a sense that COVID-19 is        Another lasting impact is evident with
changing some general assumptions             Zoom, Google Meet, and Microsoft
around real estate investment and             Teams meetings, which after the
management. Globalisation has been            initial lockdown are still a regular part    You would expect
such an accepted backdrop to capital          of real estate working life, as they         unemployment to
flows, for instance, yet now 40 percent       are in all industries. Both the survey
of survey respondents are concerned           and interviews testify to technology         increase and to have a big
about deglobalisation. “COVID-19 has          as a huge enabling force for good.           impact on social issues.
caused a greater focus on domestic            But with more remote working and
rather than global issues,” says an           greater reliance on technology comes
                                                                                           The general population’s
institutional investor. “You would expect     a greater awareness of cybersecurity         desire for politicians
unemployment to increase, certainly           – a concern for 2021 for just over half      to focus on domestic
in the short term, and to have a big          the respondents. Cybersecurity is only
impact on social issues. The general          slightly more of a problem than last
                                                                                           issues will come to the
population’s desire for politicians to        year, but the majority expect it to get      forefront again.
focus on domestic issues will come            worse over the next five years.
to the forefront again and could
be magnified.”                                Over that same period, the financial
                                              difficulties facing many occupiers
This focus on the domestic agenda             are unlikely to disappear altogether,
may even provide further investment           according to nearly half the survey
rationale for logistics, which is already     respondents. As one investment
a highly favoured sector, as part of a        manager says, “We have rent deferrals
bigger move to strengthen supply chain        for hotels, we have similar things
management. “There is still demand            being asked for in retail and to a
for more logistics, given the fact that       smaller extent from office tenants,
retail is turned off and that the logistics   and I think that will be a regular part of
work streams have changed,” one               asset management.”
pan-European investment manager
says. “People and countries will be
more dependent on their own logistics
facilities within borders . . . COVID-19
will have a lasting impact on that.”

Image: Socially distanced dining, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
(Anne Lakeman and Willem Velthoven for Mediamatic)                                 Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021   11
Chapter 1: Business environment

Monetary policy boost                       One German banker goes as far as to           Figure 1-6 Inflation and interest rates
                                            suggest that the Eurozone “will not have                  in 2021
                                            any significant interest rate increase
The industry draws comfort – even           within the next 10 years.”                                      2% 4%
if only for 2021 – from central banks’                                                              13%
prevailing lower-for-even-longer interest   Given this tailwind, many interviewees
rate policy. One global asset manager                                                                                       30%
                                            attest to reassuring levels of investment
articulates the widespread short-term       activity during the dark days of 2020,                          Inflation
view: “Interest rates are low. Investors    albeit lower than in 2019. Momentum
need yield, and they need return.           is expected to pick up through 2021                51%
That means alternative forms of yield,      although clearly a risk-off bias exists
where investors might have to give          for most investors allied to an important
up some liquidity, are likely to benefit    caveat: the continuing travel restrictions
from enhanced demand. There’s a             could hinder the ability to source deals.                        2% 2%
strong outlook for core real estate in                                                           18%                       22%
that environment. As a bond replacer,       “All the markets across Europe more
as a diversifier, demand [for core] will    or less have a cushion of supply and                           Short-term
be pretty much robust to anything that      demand, so the release of the pressure                        interest rates
happens on the economic side.”              might be even a good thing. I think
                                                                                              55%
                                            we’re going to see more suffering in
Other interviewees express some             secondary and tertiary stock and much
disquiet over the long-term implications    less on prime. But obviously we cannot
of such a monetary policy combined          expect rental growth when the economy                            1% 3%
with abundant capital in the system.        will be suffering,” says one consultant.                16%
As another global player points out: “At
some stage, someone needs to wake           “What is saving parts of the real estate                                        32%
up and say, ‘How on earth can we keep       market is the fact that you’ve got long                         Long-term
writing more debt as government? How        leases to good credit tenants,” adds
                                                                                                          interest rates
on earth can we keep printing money?’”      an asset manager. “Where the market               48%
                                            believes that credit will survive the scale
But with the prospect of an uncertain       of the correction to come, then they’re
recovery from recession, more than          buying that every day of the week;              Increase substantially     Increase somewhat
half the survey respondents believe         they’re treating it as a bond.”                 Stay the same              Decrease somewhat
interest rates will stay the same over                                                      Decrease substantially
the coming year.
                                                                                          Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021

12      Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021                              Image: Lockdown in Brussels, Belgium (Getty Images)
Such is the strength of demand that
                                                Figure 1-7 Appetite for European real estate in 2021
more than half of survey respondents
expect to be net buyers of real estate
in 2021. The investment managers
canvassed for this report invariably                                        A net buyer of real estate assets                             55%
refer to “pent-up capital” raised
                                                Buying and selling similar amounts of real estate assets                      29%
pre-pandemic that still needs to be
deployed. Residential and logistics                                         A net seller of real estate assets          15%
find favour with many of them but
                                                                                                                   0
also core offices – as long as they are         Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021
convinced that the income is assured.
Yet only the boldest are considering
retail and hospitality. “The hunt for
income is absolutely huge,” one
investment manager observes. “You
                                                Figure 1-8 Issues impacting business in 2021
could argue long-dated assets are not
going to rerate, and you’ll even see
yield compression. Whereas I think for
most other asset classes, particularly          Real estate business issues
retail and hotel, you’re going to see           Availability of suitable assets/land for acquisition and development                25
significant yield widening.”                             16                      34                           20                         25                 5         %

                                                Availabilty of (re)finance
In this hunt for yield, it is little surprise
                                                         15                           41                           16                     22                6         %
that half the respondents are concerned
about availability of suitable assets to        Sustainability/net zero
buy, but even more – 56 percent – are                    15                      34                               27                          19            5         %
worried about sourcing finance, sharply
                                                Construction costs
up on last year.
                                                    10                      38                               20                      27                     5         %
General business difficulties have              Covenant and loan servicing issues for existing loans
prompted a wider call on banks’ capital             10                    34                             24                         23                  9             %
than just real estate, and as a result
                                                Asset obsolescence
they have been even more selective
than their equity investor counterparts.            10                 31                               27                           25                 7             %
That situation is expected to continue          0        10      20            30    40      50               60      70             80            90           100
                                                    Very concerned              Somewhat concerned              Neither/nor
in 2021. “Banks will be tightening
                                                    Not very concerned           Not at all concerned
their lending, going to very low LTVs
[loan-to-value ratios], not refinancing,        Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021
and debt will be difficult to obtain, but I
think that new debt funds will emerge,”
says a European pension fund manager.

                                                We’re going to see more suffering in secondary and
                                                tertiary stock and much less on prime. But obviously
                                                we cannot expect rental growth when the economy
                                                will be suffering.

                                                                                            Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021                               13
Chapter 1: Business environment

Lasting change                                 Figure 1-9 European business environment in next 3-5 years
for real estate

Many of Europe’s real estate leaders
acknowledge that COVID-19 will bring
                                                       Asset obsolescence
lasting change to the way the built
environment is used and managed,                                               47                                          40                        13     %
which needs to be addressed now.                       Availability of suitable assets/land for acquisition and development
                                                                        36                                   41                                 23          %
According to one adviser, the shift
                                                       Availabilty of (re)finance
to online shopping, for instance, is
accelerating to the extent that a decade                                37                                       46                             17          %
of change may well be condensed to                     Covenant and loan servicing issues for existing loans
a couple of years. “That requires a                                     36                                            52                             12     %
significant refocus for many owners
                                                       Construction costs
in terms of their business plans and
what assets they want to hold long                                      35                                  36                             26               %
term, where they want to spend their                   Sustainability/net zero
capital, where they want to invest in                      11                         35                                         54                         %
certain things versus just monitoring                 0         10         20     30          40       50        60         70        80        90        100
their assets, as they may have                   Get worse           Stay the same          Improve
done otherwise.”                               Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021

Indeed, 41 percent of survey
respondents – up from a third last
year – are concerned about asset
obsolescence for 2021, and nearly half
                                               Figure 1-10 Most common building types to be repurposed
believe this problem will worsen over the
next five years.

“Our conviction now is not around what
                                               2021
to buy, but what to sell. We plan to sell
any offices in our portfolio which we                    51%                 37%             4%             4%                   3%             2%
do not think are future-proof, whether
because of their location, or design,
or ESG quality,” says an investment
manager. “But we strongly believe in
the well-connected office, designed in a
                                                         Office               Retail        Logistics    Residential         Mixed use       Leisure
way that is sufficiently flexible so that it
allows for a world in which the office is
used more for collaboration rather than        2020
production . . . those are the offices of                 72%                64%            24%             34%                 33%             25%
the future.”

The debate around how offices could, or
should, be used has been rumbling for
years, but it has ratcheted up because of
                                                          Office              Retail        Logistics    Residential         Mixed use       Leisure
COVID-19, which we analyse in chapter
3. As the survey shows, the office has
been the most common building type to          Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021
be repurposed during 2020.                     Note: This question format changed between 2020 and 2021. In 2020, respondents could
                                               select more than one option.

14      Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021
Image: Bringing colour to local shops in London, UK
                                                                 (Buster Manston – Bad Batch Productions/The London Mural Company)

The survey indicates a slowdown in the                                                       Property owners are, in effect,
                                           Figure 1-11 Change in the number of
volume of assets actually repurposed                                                         taking on more operational risk. No
                                                       assets repurposed
during 2020, which can be attributed to                                                      one is claiming this transition to a
the financial and practical constraints                                                      more operational business model
during lockdown. Over the coming five                                                        will be easy, but a growing number
                                                          6% 1% 6%
years, however, the repurposing of                                                           of industry leaders believe it is
assets from one sector to another is on                                                      nonetheless inevitable.
the agenda for nearly three-quarters of                                        28%
respondents. Says one pan-European                            2020                           “The additional dimension that
player: “I think the game going forward                                                      COVID-19 has brought into very clear
will be to make sure that whatever              60%                                          light is that where an investor once
you invest in can be repositioned and                                                        thought it just owned a lease with a
repurposed. That will be a key factor.”                                                      certain income – very comparable to
                                                                                             bond income – it now actually owns
                                                           4% 1%
Other industry leaders suggest the                                       19%                 a relationship with the underlying
challenges facing real estate go much                                                        market,” the manager adds. “It’s a
further than repurposing obsolete               25%                                          different relationship that will be created
assets or conventional supply/demand                         In next                         between the tenant and the landlord,
dynamics. COVID-19 has underlined the                        5 years                         and I think ultimately a positive one.”
growing importance of property as a
service, which has long been flagged in                                                      More than 70 percent of survey
Emerging Trends Europe; but again, it’s                                  52%                 respondents believe that landlords and
gathering pace.                              Increase substantially    Increase somewhat     tenants will consider new models for
                                             Stay the same             Decrease somewhat     leases. However, some respondents
More than 80 percent of survey               Decrease substantially                          are uneasy about such change: though
respondents believe the COVID-19                                                             37 percent think that the COVID-19
crisis will accelerate the use of          Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021        crisis will lead to a better alignment of
technology by real estate owners for                                                         interest between landlords and tenants,
the management of buildings and to                                                           a significant 28 percent disagree.
secure the health and safety of users.
Three-quarters of respondents reckon                                                         “That whole perception of the usage
COVID-19 will hasten the need for new                                                        of real estate is going to change,” says
operational skills.                                                                          one pan-European adviser. “And that
                                           It’s a different relationship                     has an effect on planning. That has an
“The nature of real estate is completely   that will be created                              effect on values, that has an effect on
different, and it’s transpired by          between the tenant and                            rent, that has an effect on the layout,
COVID-19 that the risk the landlords                                                         design, and also the branding function
have taken is completely different
                                           the landlord, and I think                         of a particular office.”
than what they thought it was,” an         ultimately a positive one.
investment manager says.

                                                                                     Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021     15
Chapter 1: Business environment

Top trends
Environmental priorities                   And when it comes to impact investing,       For others, the ESG agenda is evidently
                                           cutting the carbon footprint of real         important enough without COVID-19.
Just like last year, industry leaders      estate is regarded as by far the most        “Prioritising energy efficiency in our
believe climate change and the             effective measure with which the             buildings and being sensitive to climate
environment will have the biggest          industry can make a difference.              change is part of our job and nothing
impact on real estate over the next                                                     we would consider novel,” says one
three decades. The difference this time    Far from obscuring the industry’s            pension fund manager. “It makes
is that there seems to be a greater        sustainability objectives, many              commercial sense, and it is the right
urgency in mitigating such risk as part    interviewees believe the coronavirus         thing to do. I suspect that for most
of the overall ESG agenda.                 pandemic has provided renewed                sophisticated institutional investors,
                                           impetus. “Carbon neutrality, the benefits    this has been part of their approach for
Nearly eight out of 10 survey              to the environment from reduced              quite some time. The issue is how much
respondents think energy efficiency,       travel, to me this is just a massive ESG     and how fast it trickles down to the rest
carbon emissions, and climate adaption     accelerator,” says one private equity        of the industry.”
will increase in importance in their       player. “COVID-19 accelerates ESG, the
portfolios in 2021, and the number is      ESG focus accelerates repurposing. It’s
higher still over a five-year horizon.     going to trigger a whole tenant debate
                                           about what needs to change with
                                           respect to existing space.”

                                                                                                Image: Public realm in the city centre
16     Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021                         Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin, Ireland (IPUT Real Estate Dublin)
Image: Working from home during lockdown (Getty Images)

Fast-track technology                        The industry is also energised by
                                             the possibilities for proptech – now
                                             fast-tracked because of COVID-19.
In the era of the Zoom meeting, it is        A remarkable 91 percent of survey          Technology will make
no surprise that increasing use of
technology, or digitalisation, runs a very
                                             respondents believe the crisis will
                                                                                        certain jobs and
                                             accelerate the use of technology in
close second to environmental risk as        their organisations’ broader operations.   industries redundant,
the trend the industry believes will have
the most significant, long-term impact
                                                                                        but it will create lots
                                             On a cautionary note, one global
on real estate.                              player observes: “Technology means
                                                                                        of new roles which
                                             a lot of different things, but it is a     we don’t know yet.
“Technology will make certain jobs and       trend that is not going away, and in
industries redundant, but it will create     the real estate industry we need to
lots of new roles which we don’t know        be a lot smarter about how we use
yet,” enthuses one investment manager.       technology for information gathering
                                             and information analysis.”
As universally acknowledged, the
continuing dependence on technology          “COVID-19 has already accelerated
for remote working will have lasting         a lot of proptech initiatives,” adds a
influence on the future of the office but    pan-European investment manager.
also implications for how and where          “I think over the course of the next 30
people choose to live. The shift from        years how proptech will influence us as
physical to online retail has escalated      a business, from investing all the way
beyond all expectation in 2020. Data         through to occupancy, management,
centres top the sector prospect              and the consumer interface of
rankings for 2021, followed closely          technology. It will have a huge impact
by logistics. One way or another, the        and we’re only really at the tip of
transformative effects of technology are     the iceberg.”
there for all to see across real estate.

                                                                                Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021    17
Chapter 1: Business environment

Diversity matters                            Many interviewees acknowledge that
                                             greater diversity in the workplace –
Three-quarters of survey respondents         different points of view – leads to better
say their organisations are proactively      results in business, especially at a time         I believe that the more
addressing gender in relation to             of economic uncertainty. As the (female)
                                                                                               diverse the team, the
diversity and inclusion in the real          CEO of a Central Eastern European
estate workplace.                            developer says, “I believe that the               better the protection
                                             more diverse the team, the better the             against risks, the greater
                                             protection against risks, the greater the
For those companies focusing on
                                             effectiveness of dealing with change or
                                                                                               the effectiveness of
gender, equal pay policies and clear
processes for reporting discrimination       the need to adapt.”                               dealing with change or
are among the more common initiatives.                                                         the need to adapt.
                                             According to the survey, most real
As a result, some interviewees report        estate firms have put in place policies to
a good gender balance at all levels of       improve diversity and inclusion, but the
their organisations. But the majority        outcome so far is some way short of a
converge along the lines of “senior          workplace revolution. According to one
management looks a bit grey, white,          investment manager: “Evolution would
and male” despite the encouraging shift      be a better way to put it.”
in corporate policy.

“If you just approach the market and
say, ‘Find me the best candidate,’
I’m sure that role will end up being a
man in most cases, but that doesn’t
mean there is not a woman out there          Which of the following diversity and inclusion categories is your company
who could do a better job,” says one         proactively addressing?
pension fund manager. “You have
to wilfully want to do it. Diversity
doesn’t just happen.”

Nor is it simply about gender. Some                   73%                  45%               39%             39%      10%

interviewees believe the Black Lives
Matter movement will be a positive                                                                           LGBTQ+
                                                      Gender           Socioeconomic      BAME (Black,                Neuro
influence on real estate, and over a third                                                  Asian and
of survey respondents are proactively                                                     minority ethnic)
addressing BAME (Black, Asian,               Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021
and minority ethnic) diversity in their
organisations. The same proportion is
addressing LGBTQ+, and nearly half is
dealing with socio-economic diversity.

18      Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021
Facing up to COVID-19
Like all industries, real estate has
                                            Figure 1-12
been subject to huge upheaval as a
result of the global pandemic and its                                                                    %
economic repercussions.
                                            The COVID-19 crisis will accelerate the use of
                                                                                                     2   7            48                       43
                                            technology in a company’s broader operations
The uncertainty over the future of office
working has been one of the more            COVID-19 will hasten the need for
obvious issues, but as this chart shows,                                                         1 11                   54                         33
                                            increased focus on supply chain resilience
the impact of COVID-19 on European
real estate is wide-ranging.                Health and wellbeing will become a more
                                                                                                                        53                     33
                                            important factor across all sectors of real estate 3         10
If there is a common theme, it is
of the crisis as an accelerator of
                                            The COVID-19 crisis will accelerate the
existing trends in the way the industry     use of technology by real estate owners              3       10            45                     38
conducts its business and approaches        for the management of buildings and
the investment and management of            secure health and safety of users
real estate.
                                            Quality of cashflow/income will predominantly
                                            drive valuations in the next 12 months       1 7 10                         55                     27

                                            There will be more forced sales of
                                                                                                 7       16                 51                26
                                            retail assets in the next 12 months

                                            COVID-19 will hasten the need
                                            for new operational skills                       4           19                  52                24

                                            There will be more consolida-
                                            tion in the real estate sector                 1 8           21                      58            13

                                            Landlords and tenants will
                                            consider new models for leases                 2 8           20                  55               16

                                            A city leadership’s response to
                                            COVID-19 will be incorporated
                                                                                  2   17                 32                       40          10
                                            into future investment
                                            decision-making

                                            The COVID-19 crisis will lead to
                                            better alignment of interest     4        24                 35                 29            8
                                            between tenants and landlords

                                            There will be a trend away
                                            from high urban density           5       33                 25            30             7

                                              Disagree strongly          Disagree                             Neither/nor
                                              Agree                      Agree strongly

                                            Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021

                                                                                         Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021                    19
Chapter 2

Real estate capital markets
“The quest for income, globally, is good for real estate, so
investors continue to like it as an asset class. They’re just
clearly focused on those areas of the market where they
can get that income return – and where it’s protected.”

European real estate head, global investment manager

20     Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021              Image: Scooting through a city in Austria (Getty Images)
COVID-19 has shaken up                       Those canvassed by Emerging Trends
                                                                                           Figure 2-1 Availability of equity
Europe’s real estate capital                 Europe believe that equity for real estate
                                                                                                      and debt for refinancing/new
markets, and though the full                 is unlikely to recede dramatically – a
                                                                                                      investment in 2021
                                             stark contrast to the GFC.
impact of this dislocation is
not yet clear-cut, it is shaping             The proportion of those surveyed who
                                                                                                             5% 3%
up to be quite different from                expect equity for new investments
the aftermath of the global                  and refinancing to fall is much greater             26%
                                                                                                             Equity for
financial crisis (GFC).                      than last year – 31 percent against 17                         refinancing         33%
                                             percent. But at the same time, two-                              or new
Industry leaders expect equity and debt      thirds believe that equity will increase or                    investment
to become less plentiful – but from a        stay the same.
very high base. Though still early days,                                                              33%
capital is available for real estate, and    “The fundamental difference between
enough of it targeting logistics and         the crisis we’re going through now and                          6% 3%
residential that these highly favoured       the GFC is the speed with which the
sectors might even see yields compress.      central banks and governments reacted                                            25%
                                                                                                              Debt for
                                             to this crisis has meant that there’s not                      refinancing
While capital remains plentiful and          been any real crisis in terms of liquidity                       or new
ultralow interest rates support asset        or within the banking markets,” one                 38%        investment
values and fuel investors’ demand for        investment manager says.
                                                                                                                            28%
core assets, the stability of real estate
income and current owners’ ability           The gap between bond and real estate
to manage what is an increasingly            yields that has seen allocations to real        Increase substantially   Increase somewhat
operational asset class remain               estate consistently increase for the            Stay the same            Decrease somewhat
open questions.                              past decade remains. While certain              Decrease substantially
                                             sectors face serious challenges
As one global financier puts it: “What       to income security because of the             Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021

we had in the GFC was predominantly a        pandemic, real estate generally is seen
situation of overleverage. What we have      as one of the few asset classes to
today is predominantly going to be a lack    generate acceptable returns at a time
of income or change in income levels         of negative interest rates.
and a rerating of rental levels.”

The current market is akin to “a                                                           I think we’re talking about
phoney war,” according to a value-add                                                      the beginning of the new
investment manager. “We know that
something’s changed in a significant
                                                                                           cycle, but we’re not at the
way. But there’s a ton of capital floating                                                 bottom of the market yet.
around out there,” he says.                                                                And that is a 2021 topic,
Another veteran investment manager
                                                                                           not a 2020 topic.
adds: “I think we’re talking about the
beginning of the new cycle, but we’re not
at the bottom of the market yet. And that
is a 2021 topic, not a 2020 topic.”

                                                                                  Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021           21
Chapter 2: Real estate capital markets

Domestic investors                                        A big issue is the inability of overseas        For North America’s more opportunistic
                                                          investors to visit a property in Europe         capital, the issue may be more about
to the fore                                               before buying it. Without “boots on the         the value to be found in its domestic
                                                          ground,” it is a big call to deploy millions    market, which suddenly looks more
With regard to where that equity is                       of euros on an uninspected building.            attractive than Europe.
coming from, the physical limitations
that COVID-19 imposes on business                         “Our figures and how much we expect
are influencing investor expectations.                    to invest are very much based on
                                                          our mobility because it’s not just
There is a strong likelihood that                         us inspecting those assets,” one
domestic and European investors will                      institutional investment manager
play a much greater role in Europe                        says. “It’s also, from a distribution           Our figures and how
in 2021. European capital is the only                     perspective, us being able to get in            much we expect to invest
source where more survey participants                     front of investors – whether Australian,
say there will be an increase compared                    US, or European – to make the case.”            are very much based on
with last year.                                                                                           our mobility.
                                                          For Asian investors, many of whom are
Capital flows from Asia are expected                      newer to investment in Europe and do
to increase by more than half of                          not have local teams, this is a particular
those surveyed, but fewer believe                         problem. But interviewees argue that
this than last year. And for North                        this is a short-term impact rather than a
American and Middle Eastern capital,                      long-term trend.
the opposite is true: more foresee a
drop than an increase.

Figure 2-2 Country transaction volumes Q4 2019–Q3 2020 (€bn)

                                                                                Finland   5
                                             Norway   5       Sweden   17
                                                                                                               4 Russia

                                                 Denmark      6
                           UK    53          Netherlands               Czech
                                                                       Republic       7 Poland
         Ireland 7
                                                     20
                                                                  82
                                                                          3

                                    Belgium 4                                                    1   Romania
                                                      Germany      Austria 44
                  France
                             43                       2 Luxembourg
                                         Switzerland      6
            Spain
                                                                                 10   Italy
                     13
     Portugal 4

Source: Real Capital Analytics
Note: Countries with transactions over €1 billion.

22        Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021
Disrupting the way we work                                            A pan-European fund manager adds: “We oblige ourselves
                                                                         to inspect buildings. It’s virtually impossible if you’ve got
                                                                         to quarantine for 14 days. My fear is that there will be
   “We will go back to travelling,” says one global asset                restrictions on travel whether going to countries or coming
   manager. “Our business is about physical property, and that           back from countries, and it’s going to be off and on.”
   doesn’t come to you. You have to understand the dynamics
   of walking the market. How this building that’s located               The travel challenge is partly reflected in the survey, which
   on this block is different from the one that’s two blocks             indicates diminished capital flows into European real estate
   away? Why is that different? You just have to do it.” But             from Asia and North America during 2021 compared with
   right now, the challenge lies in the travelling. As important         previous years. By contrast, domestic and European
   as technology has been as a support to investment activity            investors – already dominant players here – are expected to
   during lockdown in 2020, there is nonetheless concern                 play an even greater role.
   across the industry over its ability to source deals in the
   coming months. With continuing work restrictions and the              As interviewees point out, investment managers and
   threat of a second wave of COVID-19, travel cannot be                 consultants with a strong on-the-ground presence may
   taken for granted. And technology – though changing some              be at an advantage, especially now when the pace of
   business practices forever – is not the entire answer.                recovery is different across Europe: market knowledge is
                                                                         more important than ever. “The difficulties with travelling
   To an extent, the industry has been working through a                 will become more of a challenge once we begin doing new
   pipeline of deals originated pre-pandemic and therefore               investments and how we manage that if we can’t go out and
   subject to conventional due diligence. But as one private             see the properties,” says a global pension fund manager.
   equity player observes: “Now that people are thinking                 “We have been doing new investments actually, but we’ve
   they are going to be locked down or unable to travel                  relied on our partners or we’ve relied on advisers to visit
   for a lot longer there is a nervousness around sourcing               the properties, and to be honest, in all the cases we were
   going forward.”                                                       already familiar with that asset or that location.”

Figure 2-3 Cross-border capital into European real estate in 2021

      13%         4%                            3% 6%                                    5%                          7%          12%
                                                                               11%
                                         15%
                            25%                                                                    29%      22%
                                                                31%
           Americas                             Europe                            Middle East                        Asia Pacific
                                                                         28%       & Africa
38%
                                                                                                                                       41%
                                       46%
                          20%                                                                                 19%

  Increase significantly         Increase somewhat        Stay the same         Decrease somewhat         Decrease significantly

Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021

“What happens with these sorts of
                                               Figure 2-4 Capital raised by Europe-
crises, the US guys have decided they
                                                          focused private equity funds
just want to be as opportunistic as                       Q4 2019–Q3 2020
they can, so it’s a blood-in-the-water,                                                              If you want US capital,
high-returning strategy. If you want US
                                                    Fund of funds 0.3                                you have to be able to
capital, you have to be able to offer
them that extra incremental return,”                     Debt 3.4           Core 2                   offer them that extra
                                                                               Core-plus 1.8
one investment manager says. “Europe                                                                 incremental return.
will be fighting with [the] US where
COVID-19, I think, has had a bigger
economic impact and a bigger real
                                                                    €bn
estate impact because their cycle was                                              Value-
                                               Opportunistic                       added 8.2
further along. I think it might be actually            11.8
quite tough to raise money in the US
right now for Europe because everybody         Source: Preqin
will be more focused on the US.”

                                                                                      Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021        23
Chapter 2: Real estate capital markets

Lending constraints                           Figure 2-5 Sources of debt in 2021

Real estate lenders are seen as being
in a far better position to weather any
                                              Alternative lending platforms
economic storm that arrives than they
                                                       13                        43                         22               17            5     %
were in the GFC.
                                              Other non-bank lenders
“Banks are generally much better                   11                           45                           25                  16        3     %
capitalised in this crisis than they
                                              Non-bank institutions
were in the GFC, a lot of which is due
                                                   7                     40                            25                   25             3     %
to the post-GFC regulations around
capital buffers and so on,” one debt          Issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities
specialist says. For the time being,           3              27                              40                        25                 5     %
distressed investment opportunities are
                                              Banks
seen as few and far between although
many interviewees acknowledge that            1        12           22                                 50                             15         %
it is probably too soon to draw firm
                                                   Increase significantly       Increase somewhat       Stay the same
conclusions here.
                                                Decrease somewhat              Decrease significantly
                                              0     10      20                30     40       50       60        70    80         90       100
“There’s a lot of pressure being put on       Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021
people [lenders] all across Europe to
exercise forbearance,” one opportunity
fund manager says. “So, what we don’t
                                              Because of the difficulties of                       But these numbers hide a lot of
really see is a huge amount of distress
                                              underwriting income and forming                      nuance about the appetite of various
out there at this point.”
                                              new business relationships digitally,                types of lenders. For many of the
                                              interviewees believe that lenders                    debt funds without big exposure to
However, just because lenders are in a
                                              will favour existing borrowers and                   legacy portfolios or loans to struggling
better place does not mean that all is
                                              that it might be easier to refinance                 restaurants or retailers, the retreat of
rosy. Debt is expected to be available,
                                              existing deals than to find debt for                 banks is a big opportunity. “I have to go
but it will be more selective.
                                              new purchases.                                       way back to a long time ago in my time
                                                                                                   in banking to find a year where we’re as
Nearly half the survey respondents think
                                              “I tell people to go hug your lender                 busy as we’ve been since lockdown,”
that debt available for new investments
                                              today because they’re your best friend,”             one debt fund manager says.
and refinancing will fall this year,
                                              one property company executive says.
compared with a fifth who foresaw a
                                              “Lenders don’t want to take any real                 Yet even some of the alternative lenders
decrease last year. And that is much
                                              risk. They don’t want to go out on the               may be unable to capitalise on new
more than the 28 percent who expect it
                                              spectrum. They also want to do things                opportunities. Typically, debt funds
to increase.
                                              for good, loyal clients that they made               have been financing higher-leverage
                                              some good loans with.”                               deals, development, or unfavoured
As one debt broker points out, lenders
                                                                                                   sectors such as retail, which could
are already constrained because “there
                                              While nearly two-thirds of survey                    leave them solely focused on problems
is a lot of stuff that needs to get worked
                                              respondents expect banks to reduce                   in their own portfolios.
out” – a difficult situation that is likely
                                              their lending to real estate, just over
to persist for the next 12 to 18 months.
                                              half expect alternative lenders like debt
“I’m not talking just real estate, but
                                              funds to increase their exposure.
across the board: aviation, shipping,
consumer and corporate credit. And
these are all massive areas in terms of
balance and exposures.”

                                              Banks are generally much better capitalised in this
                                              crisis than they were in the GFC, a lot of which is due
                                              to the post-GFC regulations around capital buffers.

24      Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021
Time to pick and choose                        Figure 2-6 Access to senior debt in 2021

At this time of great uncertainty, survey
respondents and interviewees clearly
                                               Niche sectors*                                                                  25
believe that core real estate, above all
                                                       10                  24                       34                            23          7             %
else, will find favour with both equity
and debt providers.                            Core real estate
                                                      8                    27                            43                            20             2     %
“Most people have decided to allocate
                                               Value-added real estate
to core,” says one investment manager
                                                   6                  24                       33                              30                 7         %
who runs both core-plus and value-add
funds. “If they’ve backed away from            New investment
risky assets but need the allocation,             5              20                       38                                   32                 5         %
then what do you do? You buy some              Development finance
form of core income.”
                                               2            14                   31                                 39                       14             %

When it comes to mainstream real               Refinancing
estate, the “investible universe has           2            15                           49                                      30                   4     %
shrunk down to three sectors”, one            0         10        20            30      40     50             60       70        80     90            100
global investment manager says. What               Increase significantly         Increase somewhat            Stay the same
is more, the favoured three – logistics,           Decrease somewhat             Decrease significantly
rented residential, and “uberprime”
                                               Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021
offices – could see prices increase due        * For example, student housing, co-working, data centres, retirement/assisted living.
to the weight of money targeting them.

Image: Demand keeps rising for logistics (Getty Images)                                       Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021                   25
Chapter 2: Real estate capital markets

               “We’re seeing office in Milan trade at
                                                           Figure 2-7 Returns targeted in 2021              Figure 2-8 Returns targeted in 2021
               cap rates below 3 percent, and Milan
                                                                      compared to previous years
               is not a huge city,” the global manager
               continues. “Paris, Munich, and Berlin                         10%       4%                                   5%
               are almost at sub–2 percent yields.”                                                                  12%                 21%
                                                                                             21%

               Return expectations have been scaled
               down over successive Emerging Trends
                                                                 36%                                            21%
               Europe surveys, and this time 46
               percent of respondents are targeting
               lower returns compared with a year ago.                                      29%                                         41%
               Nearly two-thirds anticipate up to 10
               percent risk-adjusted returns in 2021.
                                                              Significantly higher                             0–5%
                                                              Somewhat higher                                 5–10%
               Though best-in-class offices with
                                                              Same                                            10–15%
               long leases remain in demand, a lot of         Somewhat lower                                  15–20%
               office stock has a less certain future.        Significantly lower                              20%+
               The problems with retail, particularly
               shopping centres, are long-established      Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021       Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021
               but, again, have taken a turn for the
               worse as a result of the pandemic.

            “It would be hard for anybody to predict
vailability of equity                                      Figure 2-9 Availability of equity and
            what office or retail rents will look like
 d debt for refinancing/new                                            debt for development in 2021
            a year from now,” says one institutional
vestment in 2021
            investor. “The challenge when it comes                                                          It would be hard for
    5% 3%
            to returns is: if we were in a low interest
                                                                            9%         3%                   anybody to predict what
            rate environment before, we are even
            more so now. You have to believe                                                                office or retail rents will
            that basically returns will become
    Equity for
                                                                                                29%         look like a year from now.
            more compressed
   refinancing         33%        going forward, just                           Equity for
     or newreflecting the cost of capital coming                              development
   investment
            down, even though arguably the risk                      33%
            has gone up. I think that’s a challenge
                                                                                            27%
%           for all investment committees when the
            world feels a lot riskier.”
     6% 3%                                                                             3%
                                                                           16%              20%
             This fear of the unknown has also put
             the brakes
                      25%on development for most
      Debt for
             of
    refinancing
                the industry, and little change is                             Debt for
      or new expected   in 2021. Survey respondents                          development
             believe that both equity and debt for
    investment
             new construction will be significantly                  38%                       23%
                   28%
             reduced   – by 42 percent and 54
             percent, respectively.
bstantially     Increase somewhat                             Increase substantially    Increase somewhat
me              Decrease somewhat                             Stay the same             Decrease somewhat
 bstantially                                                  Decrease substantially

 ng Trends Europe survey 2021                               Source: Emerging Trends Europe survey 2021

               26      Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2021
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