FEMA Region 6 Weather Threat Briefing - Texas DPS
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Prepared by
Nikki Hathaway
FEMA Region 6
Weather Threat Briefing
Wednesday, September 26, 2018
Disclaimer: The purpose of this briefing is to provide a Regional weather threat assessment and is meant as a general overview.
County/Parish decision makers should consult their local NWS forecast offices for the latest detailed, local weather information.
To find your local NWS forecast office, go to www.weather.gov/srh.
www.weather.gov/srh
Summary of the Upcoming Week SR ROC
REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
Today
• Heavy rain/flash flooding possible in S TX and Central LA, isolated heavy rainfall possible in S
OK, N TX, S and N LA, and SE AR.
• River flooding will continue in TX and SE OK.
Thursday
• Isolated heavy rain/flash flooding possible in S TX.
• River flooding will continue in TX and SE OK.
Friday - Sunday
• No significant weather impacts.
• Should begin to see some improvements to river flooding in TX and SE OK.
Tropical Outlook
• A broad area of low pressure is located about 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. Additional
development appears unlikely today. This system is likely to bring scattered showers and storms to the
eastern Carolinas and dangerous seas and rip currents, but not cause any widespread, major impacts.
• Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20%
• Formation chance through 5 days…low…20%
• Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
through Friday night. Rapid weakening is expected on Friday after Kirk moves over the eastern
Caribbean Sea. No impacts to FEMA Region 6 are expected.
• Post-tropical storm Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for the next day or so. No
impacts to FEMA Region 6 are expected.
9/26/2018 8:00 AM www.weather.gov/srh
FEMA Region 6 Threat Matrix SR ROC
REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
Sept 26, 2018 – Sept 30, 2018
DAY / THREAT WED THU FRI SAT SUN
Severe Storms
S TX/ Central LA
Heavy Rain /
S OK/ N TX/ S and N LA/ S TX
Flash Flooding
SE AR
Fire Weather
Tropical Weather
River Flooding SE OK, N & S TX SE OK, N & S TX SE OK, N & S TX
No Weather Threats Expected
Very Common – Happens Often
Common – Happens Frequently
*Threat levels are based on FEMA Region 6 criteria.
Uncommon – A Few Times a Year
State or local threat level criteria may differ.*
Rare – Once Every 1-5 Years
For more details on the colors in the threat matrix refer to the last slide in this briefing.
Very Rare – Once Every 5-10 Years
9/26/2018 8:00 AM www.weather.gov/srh
Tropical Weather Outlook – Atlantic/Gulf SR ROC
REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
Post-tropical storm Leslie is forecast to meander over the
central Atlantic for the next day or so. No impacts to FEMA
Region IV are expected.
See next slide for more information on Tropical Storm Kirk.
A broad area of low pressure is located about 100 miles southeast of
Cape Hatteras, NC. Additional development appears unlikely today.
This system is likely to bring scattered showers and storms to the
eastern Carolinas and dangerous seas and rip currents, but not cause
any widespread, major impacts.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20%
Formation chance through 5 days…low…20%
9/26/2018 8:00 AM See http://www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on the tropics or any active storms www.weather.gov/srh
Kirk SR ROC
REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph. A
westward to west-northwestward motion is
expected through Friday night.
Rapid weakening is expected on Friday after
Kirk moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
No impacts to FEMA Region 6.
9/26/2018 8:00 AM See http://www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on the tropics or any active storms www.weather.gov/srh
5-Day Precipitation Forecast & River Flood Status SR ROC
REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
Note: Even though the image displays 5 days of forecasted rainfall, river forecasts only include 1-2 days of rainfall
The Clear Boggy Creek above Caney
Creek near Caney in SE OK has crested
and lowered to Minor Flood Stage.
Agricultural impacts are likely, along with
rural roads impassable.
Water will slowly move downstream
along the Trinity; should crest at Trinidad
late this week. Water will also slowly be
draining from the San Antonio and
Nueces Rivers. Ongoing flooding on the
San Antonio and Nueces and high inflows
into Lake Corpus. Forecast rainfall could
slow the recession, but no further
flooding is expected.
With the currently forecast rainfall over
S-Central and SE TX, the flooding on the
Nueces River may be prolonged but no
additional flooding is expected. Rainfall
over the Rio Grande will likely not have
widespread impacts as reservoirs have
plenty of capacity. Some isolated points
in areas that see higher rainfall rates may
see some river rises.
9/26/2018 8:00 AM See http://water.weather.gov/ahps for the latest on river flooding www.weather.gov/srh
Today’s Weather SR ROC
REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
Forecast Chart Forecast Rainfall
Heavy rain/flash flooding
possible in S TX and Central
LA, isolated heavy rainfall
possible in S OK, N TX, S and
N LA, and SE AR.
River Flooding is ongoing
across portions of SE OK, N
& S TX.
Severe Weather Outlook Excessive Rainfall Outlook
9/26/2018 8:00 AM www.weather.gov/srh
Tomorrow’s Weather SR ROC
REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
Forecast Chart Forecast Rainfall
Isolated heavy rainfall could
lead to the potential for flash
flooding across S TX.
River Flooding is ongoing
across portions of SE OK, N
& S TX.
Severe Weather Outlook Excessive Rainfall Outlook
9/26/2018 8:00 AM www.weather.gov/srh
Friday’s Weather SR ROC
REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
Forecast Chart Forecast Rainfall
River Flooding is ongoing
across portions of SE OK, N
& S TX.
No significant weather
impacts.
Severe Weather Outlook Excessive Rainfall Outlook
9/26/2018 8:00 AM www.weather.gov/srh
Days 4-5 Weather Hazards SR ROC
REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
Saturday - Sunday
No significant weather
expected.
No Weather Threats Expected
Very Common – Happens Often
Common – Happens Frequently
*Threat levels are based on FEMA Region 6 criteria.
Uncommon – A Few Times a Year
State or local threat level criteria may differ.*
Rare – Once Every 1-5 Years For more details on the colors in the threat matrix refer to
Very Rare – Once Every 5-10 Years the last slide in this briefing.
9/26/2018 8:00 AM www.weather.gov/srhSpace Weather 3-Day Forecast SR ROC
REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
Wednesday Thursday Friday
Quiet Quiet Quiet
Geomagnetic Storms
(Max Kp = 2) (Max Kp = 2) (Max Kp = 2)
Solar Radiation Storm (S1-S5) 1% 1% 1%
Radio Blackout (R1-R2) 1% 1% 1%
Radio Blackout (R3-R5) 1% 1% 1%
Click here for a
Description of the Space
Weather Storm Scales
Click here for the Latest
3-Day Space Weather
Forecast Text
9/26/2018 8:00 AM www.weather.gov/srhFor more information, please contact:
National Weather Service
Southern Region Headquarters
Regional Operations Center
Fort Worth, TX
Phone: (682) 703-3747
E-mail: sr-srh.roc@noaa.gov
Web: http://www.weather.gov/srh
@NWS_Southern_US https://twitter.com/NWS_Southern_US https://www.facebook.com/NWSSouthernCriteria for the
color codes in
this briefing is
to the left,
please provide
any feedback
to
sr-srh.roc@noaa.gov.You can also read
