FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE - 2019 RESEARCH - Knight Frank
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RESEARCH FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019
FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019
FOCUS ON:
TOTTENHAM HALE
FIGURE 1
A central theme of London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s strategy to FIGURE 3
Forecasts, Greater London 2019-2023 ease the capital’s housing shortage is to “intensify” the use of Average house prices Resales market
+19%
land close to existing or planned tube and rail connections by
building thousands of new homes.
Change in average
The strategy, also encouraged by the previous underway, and a £1 billion redevelopment of house prices,
15.9%
administration, has underpinned a wave Tottenham Hotspur’s football stadium opened Tottenham Hale,
of large-scale regeneration projects both
+ established and nearing fruition in locations
in Spring 2019.
The new housing and amenity will cater
2016-2018
including King’s Cross, Victoria and Battersea.
RENTS to the growing population of the borough
Tottenham Hale, already a key transport hub, of Haringey, which is set to expand 7%
is one of the first locations in the next phase FIGURE 4
in the coming ten years, according to Average time spent on the market,
of this strategy. Plans for redevelopment
official forecasts. rental properties
9.2%
have been accelerated by Tottenham
+ Hale’s selection as a key interchange on the
proposed north to south Crossrail 2 route.
This report is intended to assist decision
making by prospective house purchasers
HOUSE PRICES and developers looking to invest in land. It
As of the first quarter of 2019, almost 40
large residential developments of at least examines local market dynamics, including
50 private units have approval within 3 affordability compared with nearby and
kilometres of Tottenham Hale station similarly well-connected locations, the depth
Source: Knight Frank Research compromising more than 10,000 new of the rental market, Tottenham Hale’s position
homes, to be delivered over the next decade. amid London’s changing infrastructure
Note: Price forecasts are for existing homes. Property values in
the new-build market may perform differently. Significant commercial regeneration is also landscape and its expanding housing supply.
PRICES & AFFORDABILITY:
Source: Land Registry
House prices in Tottenham Hale have climbed
19% since 2016, outperforming the wider
vicinity (fig 3) and compared with other
stations along the Victoria Line.
to Brixton in the south (fig 2). The area also
scores favourably when compared with
of stations have higher average sale prices than
Tottenham Hale.
two bedroom apartment spends just 3.6 weeks
on the market before being let, compared to
5.7
Average weeks on
3.6
Average weeks on
5.7
Average we
London market, according to analysis of The average price of a home in Tottenham other locations a comparable distance from Prime monthly asking rents for a two bedroom 5.8 weeks in Greater London. The time on the market, 2 bed flat market, 2 bed flat for market, 2 b
Land Registry data. Despite this growth, the central London. A breakdown of property market drops to three weeks within 750 meters for rent in London rent in Tottenham Hale for rent in L
Hale is £405,162, the least expensive of flat in Tottenham Hale average £1,650, according
area performs well in terms of affordability all stations along the line that runs from transactions within 750 meters of the 147 to a study of the top 25% of listings by value. of Tottenham Hale station, highlighting the
compared to locations both in the immediate Walthamstow Central, through Oxford Circus, zone 3 stations during Q3 2018 indicates 80% Analysis of the rental market shows the average importance of access to transport links to tenants. Source: Rightmove
FIGURE 2
House prices and rents on the Victoria Line Year to December 2018
Walthamstow Blackhorse TOTTENHAM HALE Seven Finsbury Highbury & King’s Cross Euston Warren Oxford Green Victoria Pimlico Vauxhall Stockwell Brixton
Central Road Sisters Park Islington St Pancras Street Circus Park
Average
sale price £440,771 £418,832 £405,162 £462,999 £546,539 £718,902 £905,927 £636,448 £870,378 £1,397,724 £1,419,071 £1,628,579 £961,448 £1,047,973 £551,179 £512,588
Prime monthly
asking rent,
2 bed flat £1,500 £1,469 £1,650 £1,495 £1,907 £2,492 £2,817 £2,817 £3,900 £7,800 £10,833 £4,767 £3,467 £3,358 £1,887 £1,907
Zone 3 Zone 2 Zone 1 Zone 2
2 RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANK KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH 3
FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019
CONNECTIVITY FIGURE 7
London transport upgrades planned and in progress
N ew Stansted
M ill H ill
B roadway !
! Southgate !
!
Airport
!
! Angel Road
Much of Tottenham Hale already carries
FIGURE 5 HS2 Proposed (2026 – subject to approval)
Barnet Haringey !
!
Transport for London’s highest rating for Public transport accessibility map* Crossrail 1 (late 2019) Harrow
Alexandra
Palace
!
! Turnpike
transport accessibility (fig 5). The station is Crossrail 2 (2033)
! Lane !
! TOTTENHAM
! Tottenham H ale HALE
Redbridge
Crossrail 2 Proposals !! Chadwell
!
!
connected to central London via the Victoria !
! Seven H eath
TOTTENHAM HALE
H endon
! !
Northern Line Extension (2020) Sisters Waltham Forest
!
Line and Stansted Express trains run to the Finsbur y ! !
!
Bakerloo Line Existing
Park !
!
Hackney !
!
airport every 15 minutes. Stansted airport Bakerloo Line Proposed (2030 – subject to approval)
!
!
Isli
Cricklewood
! !
!
JOURNEY TIMES ! !
Thameslink (£7bn upgrades complete 2019)
ng
is just 37 minutes away via train, and both Brent
!
Camden
!
!
!
Dalston
!
to n
! ! Junction
Liverpool Street and Oxford Circus can be Euston
Angel !
! Stratford Barking & Dagenham
Hillingdon Old Oak
! !
St. Pancras
!
!!
Tower
Common
reached in about fifteen minutes. ! Farringdon Hamlets Newham
Ealing
!! Tottenham
Cour t Road
!
! ! !
! London City
BOND
The area’s connectivity is to be augmented CANARY STANSTED LIVERPOOL W est
Drayton !
!
! W est !
! !
!
Acton Paddington
!
! ! !
! ! !
!
!
!
!
London !
! o Airport
! !
!
STREET
further if the proposed north to south
WHARF STREET !
! !
! !
!
!
! !! Ealing
M ainline
Victor ia !
!
!! B ridge
Crossrail 2 route is approved. The Mayor of Langley
K ing's R oad !! !
!!! Elephant & Castle !
!
!!! ! !
!
BRUCE GROVE Chelsea !
Kennington ! ! ! !
! !
! Abbey
London has submitted a strategic business ! !
! !! ! Charlton W ood
case to government for the project, which
!
!!
Battersea
! !
! !
!! !
N ine
! ! ! !
!! ! !
Hounslow N ew Cross Gate
H eathrow Elms ! !
is anticipated to be operational by 2033. H eathrow
Term inal 5 !
! !
! Term inals 2 & 3 Clapham ! ! !! Lewisham
Greenwich
Bexley
H eathrow
Developers in April began paying the new !
! Term inal 4
Junction
Wandsworth
Lambeth
!! Southwark !
!
! Lewisham
!
Community Infrastructure Levy 2 in order to Tulse !! Catford
assist in funding the project.
Richmond
Upon Thames Tooting
H ill !
! !
!
!! B roadway !
!
! ! !! !
Teddington !
Crossrail 1, the east to west connection now
TOTTENHAM HALE
!! W imbledon ! !! !
Sunbur y !
! !
! !
!!
! !! ! !!
known as the Elizabeth Line, is scheduled to ! ! ! ! !
! !! ! ! !
BLACKHORSE !
! ! ! !
! ! Merton
!
! ! !
!
20 37 14 26
open in 2020. Property values within a ten K ingston
ROAD H am pton !
! !! !! !! !
!
!
minute walk of stations along the line have Cour t Surbiton !
! otspur !
! !
! !
! B rom ley ! !
!
!
! !
! !
!MPark !! Gatwick Elmers !
! !!
outperformed their local markets by 4% since Shepper ton !! !
! Airport End
MINS MINS MINS MINS !
! ! W orcester
! Park !! !! H ayes
4%
s
!
! ! Bromley !! Orpington
am e
the project was given Royal Assent in 2008. !! !
! !
!
n Th
! !
!! !
! !!!
! ! !
!
U po
!!
!
!!
SEVEN SISTERS !
sto n
King
SOUTH TOTTENHAM
20 MINS 37 MINS 14 MINS 26 MINS
HOUSING SUPPLY
Total average outperformance of Delivery of housing in Haringey has picked up from a low Tottenham Hale sits in the Lee Valley
property prices within a ten minute walk Opportunity Area which itself occupies a
of Elizabeth Line (Crossrail 1) stations
of just 133 additional dwellings in 2014-15. strategic position in the London-Stansted-
Source: TFL. * Each area is graded between 0 and 6b, where a score of 0 is very poor access to public transport, and 6b is excellent access
since the project was approved in 2008. to public transport. Cambridge-Peterborough growth corridor,
according to the draft London Plan. Tens
FIGURE 8
Housing
1,600 Supply, Haringey
of thousands of homes will be built in the
Lee Valley over the coming decade and
FIGURE 6 beyond as upgrades to infrastructure
1,400
Travel times underpin regeneration.
Minimum housing requirement
2016-2026 1,148
1,200
Annual housing supply in Haringey has risen
steadily from a low of 133 in 2014-15 to 1,200
Net additional dwellings 1,000
in 2017-18. The borough needs a minimum
TOTTENHAM HALE 10 15 14 37 37 50 of 1,148 additional homes every year to meet
JOURNEY TIMES MINS MINS MINS MINS MINS MINS
800
basic housing requirements, according to
official estimates of housing need.
600
The area around Tottenham Hale station is
400 to become a focal point for new residential
KINGS CROSS OXFORD CIRCUS LIVERPOOL STREET CANARY WHARF STANSTED HEATHROW development. Almost 40 large projects
200 have been approved within 3 kilometres of
Tottenham Hale station, compromising more
0
than 10,000 private units, to be delivered over
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 the next decade.
Source: TFL Source: MHCLG
4 RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANK KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH 5
FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019
FIGURE 9
Development pipeline Schemes of 50+ private units within 3km of Tottenham Hale Station
DEMAND DRIVERS
Demand for housing in Tottenham Hale is likely to be underpinned by more than just its relative
7%
affordability and high levels of connectivity. Easy access to high-quality education will also be a
factor. Haringey has 12 primary schools and six secondary schools rated outstanding by Ofsted,
the schools watchdog.
London’s world-class universities, including University College London, London School of
Economics and King’s College are all between 20 and 35 minutes away by tube. TEN YEAR POPULATION
GROWTH FORECAST,
In addition, the population of Haringey is set to grow by 7% over the coming decade, in line with HARINGEY
WHITE TOTTENHAM population projections for Greater London. As a result of the factors outlined in this report, many
HART LANE HOTSPUR young people are migrating to the borough, according to official figures. Some 8,771 people
STADIUM aged 20-29 moved to the borough during 2017, making them the largest cohort. More than
FIGURE 11
6,000 people aged 30-39 moved to the borough during the same year.
NORTHUMBERLAND Who moved to Haringey? 2017
PARK
FIGURE 10 100+
Office for Standards in Education ratings in Haringey
90-99
80-89
70-79
PRIMARY
60-69
50-59
HIGHAM HILL 12 41
Age
40-49
30-39
SECONDARY
TOTTENHAM HALE
20-29
TOTTENHAM
10-19
WEST TOTTENHAM HALE BLACKHORSE
GREEN OUTSTANDING
ROAD
6 5 GOOD 0-9
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 1,0000
WALTHAMSTOW
SEVEN SISTERS CENTRAL
Source: Ofsted Source: ONS
SEVEN SISTERS
WALTHAMSTOW ST JAMES
RESERVOIRS STREET WALTHAMSTOW
HARINGEY SOUTH QUEENS ROAD FIGURE 12
SOUTH TOTTENHAM
Travel times from Tottenham Hale to universities with 2019 UK ranking
TOTTENHAM
HARINGEY
GREEN LANES CRAVEN
WALK
UNIVERSITY COLLEGE SOAS CASS BUSINESS
STAMFORD HILL LONDON UNIVERSITY SCHOOL
20MINS 3RD 22MINS 48TH 21MINS =43RD
MANOR HOUSE
STAMFORD HILL
LONDON SCHOOL
NUMBER OF PRIVATE UNITS INCLUDES BUILD TO RENT OF ECONOMICS AND CITY KING’S
POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE
50 – 100 101 – 200 201 – 400 Over 400 29MINS 5TH 29MINS =43RD 35MINS 7TH
Source: Molior Source: TFL, Times Higher Education
6 RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANK KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH 7
“PLANS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT HAVE
BEEN ACCELERATED
BY TOTTENHAM HALE’S
SELECTION AS A KEY
INTERCHANGE ON THE
PROPOSED NORTH TO
SOUTH CROSSRAIL
2 ROUTE.”
Patrick Gower, Residential Research
patrick.gower@knightfrank.com
If you would like further insight into residential
markets please get in touch.
RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH RESEARCH
LAND INDEX
RISING COSTS AND UNCERTAINTY
CURB LAND VALUE GROWTH LONDON LONDON
RESIDENTIAL
Increasing build costs, patchy house price growth and increased economic
uncertainty are, to different degrees, weighing on land values in urban
brownfield, greenfield and Prime central London locations.
RESIDENTIAL
Key Facts Q4 2018
REVIEW DEVELOPMENT
Average greenfield development land outlined above. That’s the first annual
prices declined 0.6% in Q4 2018, down decline since Knight Frank began tracking
Average greenfield development land from 2.6% growth in Q3, paring annual Urban Brownfield land values in Q4 2015.
prices declined 0.6% in Q4, taking the
annual growth to 0.6%
growth to 0.6%. Labour costs continue to
edge up and the relatively weak pound has
Values edged up 1.0% during the quarter,
however, following a 2.3% decline in Q3, led
SPRING 2019 H1 2019
made imported building materials more
by gains in Birmingham City Centre sites.
costly for housebuilders.
Urban brownfield development land
Birmingham remains undersupplied when
prices returned to growth, climbing Anecdotally, site visitor numbers remain
it comes to housing, according to official
1.0% during the quarter. The annual robust, though customers are taking longer
to commit to purchases, particularly in the data, though heightened activity in the land
change was -0.5%
south of England. In the resale market market during the past three years has
during the first nine months of this year, meant a high quality pipeline is emerging.
Prime central London development when compared with 2016, the average Developers are likely to be increasingly
land values declined 2.8%, taking the time taken from listing a home to sale selective when purchasing land during the
annual decline to 5.6% agreed in the East of England, the South coming quarters.
East and London climbed more than 30%, In Prime central London, land values
according to Rightmove data. By contrast, declined 2.8% in Q4, taking the annual
the time taken from listing to sale agreed decline to 5.6%. Values have dropped
over the same period declined by 5.6% almost 20% since the peak of the market in
in the East Midlands, 11.4% in the West Q3 2015, and with the weak sterling, some
Midlands and 9.9% in the North West. notable buyers have decided Prime central
These risks, alongside economic uncertainty London land now represents good value.
over Britain’s impending departure from the
Sites of all types are transacting, though
European Union, have prompted developers
volumes remain low. The central London
to increase their margins, which is
land market is also susceptible to negative
suppressing growth in greenfield land values.
sentiment relating to Brexit and land
Urban brownfield land values declined by owners are in many cases choosing to wait
0.5% during 2018, also for the reasons for more clarity before choosing to sell.
FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2
Residential development land prices Annual change in average land values
MULTIHOUSING
Rebased 100 = Sep 2011 (Urban Brownfield = Dec 2014)
Prime Central London Urban Brownfield Prime Central London Urban Brownfield
2019
English Greenfield English Greenfield
150 10.0%
7.5%
140
5.0%
PATRICK GOWER 130 2.5%
PRS RESEARCH
Associate, UK Residential Research
0.0%
Index
120
“Labour costs continue to -2.5%
edge up and the relatively 110 -5.0%
Sector update | Tenant Survey 2019: Results | Investor Survey
weak pound has made -7.5%
100
imported building materials -10.0%
more costly for housebuilders.” 90 -12.5%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
@patrickgower OUTPERFORMANCE VERSUS
patrick.gower@knightfrank.com Source: Knight Frank Research Source: Knight Frank Research PENT-UP DEMAND BUILDS ASKING PRICES ADJUST
OTHER ASSET CLASSES
UK Res Dev Land Index The UK Tenant Survey The London Review London Residential
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Important Notice
© Knight Frank LLP 2019 – This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Edward Robinson
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