GLOBAL SOLUTIONS JOURNAL - RECOUPLING THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SUMMIT EDITION - Alexander von Humboldt Institut ...
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ISSUE 4 GLOBAL SOLUTIONS JOURNAL RECOUPLING THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SUMMIT EDITION ABIDHADJAEV ∙ ALTMAIER ∙ ANBUMOZHI ∙ ANDOR ∙ ANHEIER ∙ BARLEY BEIER ∙ BHATTACHARYA ∙ BONDE ∙ BRADFORD ∙ CHANDRASHEKHAR CIURIAK ∙ DARNALL ∙ DE JAGER ∙ DJEFFAL ∙ FRANK ∙ GANTEN ∙ HANNI HENDRIYETTY ∙ HENFREY ∙ HORNO ∙ INABA ∙ ISCHINGER ∙ JAITMAN KASTROP ∙ KELLY ∙ KHAN ∙ KICKBUSCH ∙ KOMIYAMA ∙ MAIRA ∙ MARTNER MATSUSHITA ∙ MONJEAU ∙ MORGAN ∙ NAKATA ∙ NEMOTO ∙ NIKOLAEVA OKUBO ∙ OHNO ∙ OKONEDO ∙ PENHA-LOPES ∙ PIÑEIRO ∙ PONATTU SCHMIDT ∙ SNOWER ∙ STEINHILBER ∙ TIBERGHIEN ∙ VIGLIZZO YANAGISAWA ∙ YOSHINO ∙ ZADEK
ISSUE 4 ∙ MARCH 2019
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS JOURNAL ∙ ISSUE 4 PREFACE
Paradigm change
for a sustainable
world order
Global Solutions Summit 2018 closing plenary (from left) with Laura Jaitman, Argentine Ministry of
Dennis J. Snower
President, Global
Dear Reader, Treasury; Colin Bradford, Vision 20; Naoyuki Yoshino, Chair T20 Japan; Jose Martínez, CARI; Dennis
J. Snower, GSI; Sebastian Turner, Tagesspiegel.
Solutions Initiative
Welcome to the third Global Solutions
Summit in Berlin. Our annual Sum- the world in preparing this Summit, span- bring their practical experiences into the
mit aims to support the Japanese T/G20 ning researchers, policy makers, business global problem-solving discussion. There
Presidency. We are honored that State leaders, and civil society representatives. will also be a special forum for highlight-
Minister Masahisa Sato will address our ing the implementers’ innovations.
Markus Engels
Summit as a representative of the G20 as As in 2017 and 2018, we proudly welcome
Secretary General, well as the T20 Sherpa Dean Yoshino. the Young Global Changers (YGC). More We are honored to welcome Heads of State
Global Solutions
than 3,500 applicants from 155 countries and Government, representatives from
Initiative
The theme of this year’s Summit is global applied to participate and it was exceed- various international organizations, G20
paradigm change to recouple social, po- ingly difficult to choose only 100 individu- and T20 sherpas, ministers, think tank re-
litical and economic progress. als for this year’s program. During the searchers, representatives from NGOs and
Summit, you will see our Young Global global enterprises, mayors and experts
There are many excellent contributions in Changers actively participating in the who are working toward global solutions
this journal and we are deeply grateful to proceedings. Last weekend, during the from a local and regional perspective.
all the authors. At the beginning of this is- Global Solutions Summer School, they
sue, you will find two keynote articles: the prepared research and projects alongside This Summit connects researchers and
MSC Co-Chair Colm Kelly and the Global the Summit and thereafter. We kindly ask decision makers from around the world
Solutions President Dennis Snower pro- the other Summit participants to support to tackle global problems multilaterally in
vide their complementary perspectives on their work as needed. the interests of civil societies around the
guidelines for global paradigm change. world. As such, it is an exercise in recou-
Subsequent contributions are to be un- This year we seek to build a bridge be- pling economic, political, and social pros-
derstood in this light. tween the worlds of ideas and action by perity. Thank you for joining us in Berlin.
Copyrights: Tobias Koch
bringing the T20 researchers into closer
We are delighted to welcome over 1,200 relation with visionary implementers from Yours, in hope and confidence,
participants and more than 150 speakers. politics, business and civil society. The
We are humbled by the enthusiasm and en- implementers will challenge the propos-
gagement of so many people from around als made by the T20 working groups and
4 5CONTENTS CONTENTS
Global Solutions Journal Issue 4
VISION BRIEFS ECONOMICS AND TRADE
12 Toward global paradigm change: 130 The US-China trade war: Technological roots and WTO responses
Beyond the crisis of the liberal world order Dan Ciuriak
Dennis J. Snower 136 SMEs – Champions of sustainable business development.
33 Repurposing our economies – and our businesses Lessons for a regulatory framework
Colm Kelly Jost de Jager
140 SME finance using bank account information: Credit-risk reduction effect
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABILITY on small and medium-sized enterprise finance
64 Multilateralism – We need to strengthen free, rules-based trade Naoko Nemoto, Naoyuki Yoshino, Yutaka Okubo, Daimei Inaba, Kentaro Yanagisawa
to the benefit of everyone 147 Trade, food security and the comparative environmental advantage
Peter Altmaier of food-producing countries
66 Realizing the sustainable future: How to put the G20 on the right track? Ernesto F. Viglizzo, Martín E. Piñeiro
Venkatachalam Anbumozhi 156 High-quality infrastructure and land acquisition for infrastructure
75 Solutions for a paradigm shift toward sustainability development through land trusts
Alexander Bonde Naoyuki Yoshino, Umid Abidhadjaev, Nella Sri Hendriyetty
82 Innovation toward a platinum society: Proposal for a community energy
system based on renewable energy DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Hiroshi Komiyama 166 How are algorithms transforming our lives?
89 Toward a climate-resilient and sustainable future: Welcome speech at the Global Solutions Summit
T20 Japan TF3 on Climate and Environment Katarina Barley
Kazuo Matsushita 173 The digitalization of industries: Industrial policies for an inclusive
97 FABLE and Argentina’s food and land-use systems and sustainable digital transformation
Adrian Monjeau, Federico C. Frank Christoph Beier
104 Think 20 Japan 2019: The “Japan SDGs Model” and the Task Force on 179 Tech-driven disruption in social sectors:
the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development The irresistible force meets the immovable object
Izumi Ohno Rentala Chandrashekhar
114 There are no jobs on a dead planet: 186 Sustainable development of artificial intelligence (SAID)
Trade unions as agents of social and environmental transformation Christian Djeffal
Jochen Steinhilber
120 The critical frontier: Reducing Belt and Road emissions
Simon Zadek
6 7CONTENTS CONTENTS
FUTURE OF WORK AND EDUCATION GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND THE FUTURE OF POLITICS
196 Financial literacy for the digital age: 278 Effectiveness of development cooperation:
The need for digital financial education Need for a new conversation on how to assess it
Peter J. Morgan Debapriya Bhattacharya, Sarah Sabin Khan
205 New challenges for education systems: 287 Changing the dynamics: From conflict to transformation
What makes the next generation and the future workforce strong? Colin Bradford
Barbara Ischinger 293 Changing the paradigm: Systems thinking, systems organizing,
213 The future of work: A case for international cooperation systems transformation
Laura Jaitman, María Florencia Asef Horno Arun Maira
220 Shaping business education to support recoupling 298 Cooperation with Africa in T20 Japan
Enase Okonedo Ryosuke Nakata
304 Causing and correcting G20 compliance
SOCIAL COHESION Alisa Nikolaeva
230 Decoupling and social arrest: Which ways forward? 312 A key message from the Paris Peace Forum: Defusing cross-national
Helmut K. Anheier misperceptions and advancing inclusive global governance
237 Next stage: European Social Union. Yves Tiberghien
To overcome internal imbalances, the EU must address outside needs
László Andor
243 Reducing the global burden of chronic pain 320 The Global Solutions Initiative for the G20
Beth D. Darnall 322 Imprint
249 Domestic resource mobilization and the redistributive impact
of fiscal policies in Latin America
Michael Hanni, Ricardo Martner
254 Recoupling through regeneration: Community-led initiatives and
the re-imagining of economic and social policy
Thomas Henfrey, Gil Penha-Lopes
260 Inequality and the productivity slowdown: The growing gap
between the most productive and the rest dampens social cohesion
Christian Kastrop, Dominic Ponattu, Julia Schmidt
267 Invest in universal health coverage now
Ilona Kickbusch, Detlev Ganten
8 9GLOBAL SOLUTIONS JOURNAL ∙ ISSUE 4 DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Sustainable develop applications in need of further assistance.
Face recognition and other controversial
derstanding of the problems in the country,
including floods, violence against women,
ment of artificial
AI technologies are used to ensure public malaria, and cholera. On the other side of
security and safety. the spectrum are so-called lethal autono-
These examples highlight some of the mous weapons systems (LAWS), which
intelligence (SAID)
important features of the concept of AI. are also fuelled by artificial intelligence.
According to Klaus Mainzer’s definition, AI After several years of expert meetings of
denotes systems that can deal with certain experts, states established a Group of Gov-
problems independently and efficiently. ernmental Experts under the umbrella of
The term has famously been framed as a the Convention on Certain Conventional
research question by four computer sci- Weapons. The controversial negotiations
entists in a grant proposal. Today, AI is in this group show that new possibilities
The author: Artificial intelligence (AI) is changing our considered a sub-discipline of computer through AI can be hard to resolve.
lives. However, it seems to be a solution science that is actively pursued by special-
Christian Djeffal
and a problem at the same time. In order ized academics and research institutions.
Associated Researcher,
Alexander-von-Humboldt-
to understand opportunities and risks,
to evaluate promises and warnings, we
AI is not a single technology but a set of
technologies.i Those technologies are not
»Being a general-
Institute for Internet and
Society (HIIG) should ask the right questions and choose limited to specific circumstances in their purpose
technology,
the right frame of analysis. It is time to use. They can be used in many contexts
think and talk about AI in terms of sustain- and for various purposes. AI denotes a set
one can create
able development. of general-purpose technologies in the
truest sense of the word. This might be one
swords and
I. WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT ARTIFICIAL reason why AI has been compared to other
INTELLIGENCE general-purpose technologies like steam-
ploughshares
AI applications play an increasing role in machines, and the production of steel.
all parts of society. In hospitals, image rec- Being a general-purpose technology,
The institution:
ognition systems aid doctors in diagnosing
diseases like skin cancer. They are in many
one can create swords and ploughshares
from AI. from AI.«
cases more accurate than the doctors. In The metaphors of swords and plough-
our private life, different AI applications al- shares certainly applies to AI, and this can
low us to “speak” with our mobile phones, even be seen in the practice of the United Governments, companies and research
to take better pictures and to sort them au- Nations. UN Global Pulse, an innovation institutions are having heated debates
tomatically. Fully automated public trans- initiative of the Secretary General, uses AI about the future of artificial intelligence.
The Alexander von Humboldt Institute portation is available in many countries proactively for development and humani- They talk about ethics, about AI’s impacts
for Internet and Society researches the and driving is increasingly automated. In tarian action. The Pulse Lab Kampala de- on human rights and about the ways in
development of the internet from a societal factories, AI-empowered industry robots veloped a system that monitors local public which AI could strengthen the economy.
perspective. The aim is to better understand can handle an ever-increasing number of radio stations all over the country. Small Depending on the respective focus, spe-
the digitalization of all spheres of life. As
tasks. In offices, AI tools help to plough hardware is deployed all over the country, cific topics concerning AI are in the lime-
the first institute in Germany with a focus on
internet and society, HIIG has established
through data in order to make predictions a text-to-speech application transforms light. While stakeholders have identified
an understanding that emphasises the or to identify certain important aspects of the data and another AI application analy- many important issues, very little reflec-
embeddedness of digital innovations in societal that data. Risk management tools are also ses and clusters the data. This is done in tion has addressed the question of the
processes. used by tax administrations to identify tax order to give the government a better un- right frame. In particular, policy makers
186 187GLOBAL SOLUTIONS JOURNAL ∙ ISSUE 4 DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
and other stakeholders have not explored regions of the world. It addresses issues rent state of governance mechanisms is 1. Understand change and share
the potential of framing AI in the terms of of economic development, but attributes far from perfect, they are steps in the right knowledge
sustainable development. the same importance to social and en- direction. AI technologies might be further It is important to understand change
vironmental issues. It highlights human tools to strengthen the governance of sus- caused by AI in a comprehensive manner
II. WHY SUSTAINABLE AI DEVELOP rights, but is also sensitive for concerns tainable development. and to map its impacts. This applies to
MENT? at the level of groups and countries. It beneficial and harmful impacts. It is one
While there are sporadic attempts to addresses public and private actors and Fit of the major features of the discourse sur-
highlight the potential of AI to contribute includes civil society. What is even more Generally, the framework of sustainable rounding sustainable development that
to the fulfilment of sustainable develop- important that sustainable development development has been used to deal with changes are tracked, goals are defined and
ment goals, there is at the moment no works on the micro, the meso and the similar issues and, therefore, is a good fit monitored. Best practices are shared and
comprehensive analysis of how different macro level. Sustainability can be an is- for AI’s current challenges. First, it sets communicated across communities. Such
technologies are to be considered from the sue for specific products and applications. limits and goals for technological devel- a model would have great benefits for the
perspective of sustainable development. Yet, it can be also a standard measuring opment. Hence, it is neither exclusively governance of artificial intelligence. This
This is somewhat surprising, considering overall impacts on the environment or so- directed to the potential nor to the risks is particularly important in the field of AI
that the discourse on sustainable develop- cial justice. In contrast, the focus of the of AI. Sustainable development highlights for discussions are sometimes guided by
ment is very far advanced but captures a discourse on AI tends to be on the con- both sides of the coin. What’s more, the specific very visible applications like auto-
basic conflict that represents current dis- sequences of specific applications, par- concept of sustainable development is not mated cars or narratives from Hollywood
cussions concerning AI. That is the conflict ticularly in their performance concerning shy to address conflicts. From the initial movies. In order to assess the change, it
between development and its potential fairness, accountability and transparency. discussions, there was an inherent conflict would be necessary to have a complete
costs. Sustainable development acknowl- Save for the future of work, the impacts between sustainability and development. picture of where AI is already in use and
edges the opportunities of progress, but of AI on society as a whole are only rarely While sustainable AI development does not what the repercussions of that use are.
also highlights its limitation due to im- discussed. Sustainable AI development as necessarily deal with the need for progress Instead of focussing on very specific is-
pacts on societal concerns such as the en- a frame could change that. and environmental impacts, there are often sues like the trolley dilemma,1 it would be
vironment. Reducing the main advantages trade-offs that need to be addressed in a interesting to see how AI becomes a part
of sustainable AI development to three Governance clear manner. These trade-offs can con- of the everyday infrastructure. Such a sys-
words, it would be inclusiveness, govern- One of the remarkable features of sustain- cern the functionality of the systems and tematic approach might uncover that there
ance and connectivity. able development is its focus on govern- the many things that can be achieved on are many more applications that are not
ance and implementation. The discourse the one side and notions of privacy, trans- automated decision-making systems but
on sustainable development has continu- parency and individual autonomy on the nevertheless play an ever-increasing role.
»Sustainable AI ously been improved. The 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development has established
other.
2. Develop a strategy of strategies
development a multi-stakeholder process in order to III. LEARNINGS FROM SAID There is currently a proliferation of nation-
is an inclusive
support achievement and development Sustainable AI development is an inclu- al AI strategies. Canada, China, Finland,
of specific goals and related indicators. sive framework. Yet, it is different than France, Germany, and Japan are among
framework.«
A sustainable perspective on AI does not other frameworks and has the potential to the countries that have published such
only highlight goals and limits, but neces- highlight specific aspects of artificial in- an AI-strategy. While it is certainly a good
sarily implies the question how they are telligence and digitization. This change of thing that more and more countries posi-
to be realized. From this perspective, it is perspectives offers specific learnings that tion themselves regarding such a set of
Inclusiveness not enough to talk about ethics and human can be implemented when discussing the transformational technologies, the ques-
The discourse on sustainable develop- rights but to take specific actions in order future of artificial intelligence. tion remains how countries coordinate.
ment has attained a very high level of in- to achieve certain goals or prohibit certain While every country wants to become a
clusiveness. It relates to all countries and impacts of technologies. While the cur- leader in AI, this is not a realistic option,
188 189GLOBAL SOLUTIONS JOURNAL ∙ ISSUE 4 DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
save for a few countries. And even the AI applications. This has been discussed What has been stated for infrastruc- right from the beginning. In certain ju-
countries that can be leaders in AI technol- in the context of music and health. It is ture is also true for the ecosystem. While risdictions, data protection officers have
ogy contemplate whether they are strong even more significant when this problem it is certainly necessary to have hubs that become the agents of data protection in
enough to outweigh the rest of the world. is combined with the gig-economy. There spark innovation and help to make innova- companies, organizations and public ad-
Despite certain quotes from different poli- are concerns that certain platforms might tions applicable to real world problems, ministration. In the case of using AI in
ticians in 2016, it becomes more and more take advantage of missing labor regulation those ecosystems should also include re- public, the ecosystem should also include
clear that AI research cannot be compared in developing countries and exploit the flections on the ethical, legal and social citizens. There are different participation
to the race for the nuclear weapon. It is workforce there for simple labelling tasks. impacts of AI. Many AI strategies consider tools that could be used to include citizens
about different technologies, different ar- To train an algorithm in such a setting so-called “AI-observatories”. In certain do- in the design process. These methods in-
eas of application and different purposes. means effectively to make one’s own abil- mains, there are also agencies that have to clude sortition or random sample voting.
While machine learning based on neural ity redundant. However, gig-workers with- test and certify AI applications. When there are important decisions to
networks works well today, it is far from out legal protection have little leverage to make for instance in the smart city con-
clear what the next breakthrough will be influence such a setting. If these and com- text, it would be possible to consult such a
based on. In such a situation, we are in
need of a strategy of strategies allowing for
parable situations are not addressed from
the perspective of sustainability and jus-
»If it is true that group that would be selected to be trained
and work as a citizens’ data ethics com-
competition and cooperation at the same tice, we might be soon faced with another ›responsible mission. The ecosystem for sustainable AI
design eats
time. Such a strategy of strategies should aspect of what has been coined “digital development should comprise various ac-
provide incentives for inventions but help slavery”.ii tors and organizations, from the UN High
oversight for
to avoid that the same inventions and mis- Level Panel on Digital Cooperation to local
takes are made in different countries again 4. Build an infrastructure and an ecosys- citizens’ data ethics commissions.
breakfast‹,
and again. It should also coordinate efforts tem for sustainability
where countries actually have the same From the perspective of sustainable AI de- IV. THE FUTURES OF AI
it will be
goals and can work together. The sustain- velopment, an infrastructure for sustaina- In conclusion, the preliminary learnings
able development agenda is such a strat- ble AI development is key. This infrastruc- from sustainable AI development show
egy of strategies. ture has to transgress the goals of building
fast and functional AI applications. It will important to that there is a lot of potential to think about
AI in terms of sustainable development. As
3. Justice
One of the most important features of
also have to deal with questions of making
applications sustainable by taking into ac- think about a set of general-purpose technologies, AI
has not one single future. It has many fu-
sustainable development is the constant
quest for justice equity and fairness. Sus-
count individual, group and societal needs.
Take for example the need to assess and agents of good tures, and these futures depend on more
than just technological inventions. They
tainable development is concerned with
current affairs but also takes into account
test AI applications. This is an interest
shared by developers, companies, regula-
design. « depend on the decisions taken to fund re-
search and innovation, they depend on de-
future generations. As a framework, SAID tory authorities and policy makers alike. cisions to implement technologies in soci-
makes such questions of justice visible on Testing and evaluation are much easier ety, and they depend on choices about how
the micro and the macro level. There are when there is an infrastructure allowing If it is true that “responsible design eats to design and how to implement technolo-
currently issues that are not really re- to do this. A focus group of the ITU cur- oversight for breakfast”, it will be important gies. AI applications can play an important
solved. One issue that is projected to be a rently undertakes such an effort by build- to think about agents of good design. role in society but it is us who decide which
great concern in the future is the distribu- ing evaluation and test sets for specific AI Those agents have to be close to the role they play. To employ sustainable AI
tion of wealth gained from trained neural driven eHealth applications.iii They are in processes of building AI and able to in- development as a framework makes us
networks. This is particularly problematic the process of creating a test environment clude ethical, legal and social aspects aware of the choices.
when the training data is based on the ef- that would allow the evaluation and bench-
forts of people that do not profit from the marking of eHealth applications.
190 191GLOBAL SOLUTIONS JOURNAL ∙ ISSUE 4
1
In the context of AI, this is often related to situations in which a car can do nothing than choose between
harming and potentially killing different groups of people. The problem is that this choice can be programmed.
i
U. Gasser and V. A.F. Almeida, ‘A Layered Model for AI Governance’, IEEE Internet Computing 21 (2017), 58–62.
ii
D. Snower, ‘Emancipation in the age of digital slavery’, Global Solutions Journal 1 (2018), 18–20.
M. Salathé, T. Wiegand, M. Wenzel and R. Kishnamurthy, Focus Group on Artificial Intelligence for Health.
iii
https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/focusgroups/ai4h/Documents
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