GOLD Survey 2013 uPDATe 1 - Prepared by Thomson Reuters GFMS

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GOLD Survey 2013 uPDATe 1 - Prepared by Thomson Reuters GFMS
GOLD Survey 2013
                                                                                        UPDATE 1
                                                                                        Prepared by Thomson Reuters GFMS

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GOLD Survey 2013 uPDATe 1 - Prepared by Thomson Reuters GFMS

Rhona O’Connell, Head of Metals Research & Forecasts
Cameron Alexander, Manager, Regional Demand
Andrew Leyland, Manager, Regional Demand
William Tankard, Manager, Supply
Junlu Liang, Senior Analyst
Matthew Piggott, Senior Analyst
Marcin Szczypka, Senior Analyst
Johann Wiebe, Senior Analyst
George Coles, Analyst
Saida Litosh, Analyst
Sudheesh Nambiath, Analyst
Janette Tourney, Analyst
Ryan Cochrane, Analyst
Sara Zhao, Analyst


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GOLD Survey 2013 uPDATe 1 - Prepared by Thomson Reuters GFMS
    THE FOLLOWING COMPANIES FOR THIS YE AR                                    Italpreziosi SPA

GOLD Survey 2013 uPDATe 1 - Prepared by Thomson Reuters GFMS


         Barrick Gold Corporation          


GOLD Survey 2013 uPDATe 1 - Prepared by Thomson Reuters GFMS
1. Summary and Price Outlook                                                                                                           5
      • Supply 6 • Demand 6 • Market Outlook 7

2. Gold Prices in 2013                                                                                                                 8
      • Price Outlook 10

3. Investment                                                                                                                         11
      •   Implied Net Investment 12 • Investment in Exchange Listed Structured Products 13
      •   Exchange Traded Funds 13 • Commodities Exchange Activity 13
      •   Over-the-Counter Market 15 • Physical Bar Investment 15
      •   Official Coin Sales and Fabrication 17 • Medals and Imitation Coins 17

4. Mine Supply                                                                                                                        18
      • Mine Production 18 • Production Costs 22 • Producer Hedging 24

5. Supply From Above-Ground Stocks                                                                                                   25
      • Official Sector 25 • Scrap Supply 27

6. Fabrication Demand                                                                                                                29
      • Europe 29 • North America 31 • Middle East 32 • Indian Sub-Continent 34 • East Asia 35

6. Price Appendix                                                                                                                    38

Focus Boxes
      • Investment in Commodities 14 • Corporate Activity 21
      • A Market Rarity; Gold in Backwardation 26 • Industrial Demand 37

The estimates shown in this Update for the main components of mine production, scrap, fabrication and investment demand are calculated
on the basis of a detailed supply/demand analysis for each of the markets listed in the main tables. In the vast majority of cases, the
information used in these analyses has been derived from visits to the countries concerned and discussions with local traders, producers,
refiners, fabricators and central bankers. Although we also make use of public domain data where this is relevant, it is the information
provided by our contacts which ultimately makes this Update unique. We are grateful to all of them.

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The first eight months of 2013 saw a major rebalancing in             Global mine production in the first half of 2013 increased
the gold market with an exodus of professional investors              by 3% to 1,416 tonnes. The number and scale of mines

                                                                                                                                               SUMMARY AND PRICE OUTLOOK
countered by an explosion in grass roots demand. From                 that have been placed on care and maintenance due
their peak at the start of the year through to early August,          to lower gold prices has as yet been modest, and is
Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) holdings fell by 26% and                   likely to remain so in the near term. Cost containment
this, coupled with the withdrawal of momentum-driven                  is emerging, though, notably through reduced capital
money, contributed to a 30% intraday price decline from               expenditure budgets and slowing project development.
the high of $1,696/oz in January to a low of $1,181/oz at
end-June. The price fall triggered a huge leap in physical            Gold movements have also been heavily affected by
bar-hoarding and coin demand, while also marking a                    monetary policy particularly in the United States. Now,
possible end to the decade-long substitution away from                however, professional investors have priced in the
gold in the jewellery market.                                         tapering of monetary stimulus and the private buyer is
                                                                      centre stage. The counterbalance between physical and
The first half of 2013 saw an increase of more than 550               professional demand will help to give gold some renewed
tonnes of gold offtake in jewellery, investment bars,                 relative price stability to refresh its appeal as an asset
coins and medals. This helped to reverse the price fall,              class to longer-term investors as a portfolio balancer.
prompting a recovery towards $1,440 by end-August.
The rebound in demand was widespread, through the                     We expect gold to edge higher through the rest of 2013
Middle East and South and East Asia, and highlighted                  and towards $1,500 in early 2014, before a gentle decline
the Indian government’s continued concern about the                   thereafter. The falls in the second quarter of 2013 have
contribution of gold imports to the country’s trade deficit.          flushed out many weak-handed holders, but it remains
This year looks set to be the first year in modern times              questionable as to whether there will be sufficient
when China will overtake India as the metal’s number one              investor appetite to absorb large quantities of gold at
consumer, by as much as 100 tonnes.                                   prices much above $1,400.


			                 Change				                Change		       Change
(tonnes) 2012 2013F   y-o-y 12.H1 12.H2 13.H1   y-o-y 13.H2F   y-o-y
  Mine production                         2,864       2,917       1.8%      1,374      1,490       1,416      3.0%        1,501     0.8%
  Old gold scrap                           1,591      1,397     -12.2%        772        819        662     -14.3%         736    -10.2%
  Net producer hedging                         -           -       n/a          -          -           -       n/a            -       n/a
  Implied net disinvestment                    -        213        n/a          -          -        456        n/a            -       n/a
Total Supply                             4,455       4,527        1.6%      2,146     2,309       2,533     18.0%        2,237     -3.1%

   Jewellery                              1,896       2,137      12.7%       926        970        1,137    22.8%        1,000       3.1%
   Other                                    718         823      14.6%       363        356         454     25.2%          369      3.8%
  Total Fabrication                       2,615      2,960       13.2%      1,289      1,326       1,591    23.5%        1,369      3.2%
  Net official sector purchases             544         361     -33.6%        281       263          191   -32.0%          170    -35.3%
  Physical bar investment                   945        1,166     23.4%        477       468         725     52.0%          441     -5.7%
  Net producer de-hedging                    40          40      -0.2%          9         30         26     177.2%           14   -54.1%
  Implied net investment                    312            -       n/a        90        222            -       n/a         243      9.4%
Total Demand                             4,455       4,527        1.6%      2,146     2,309       2,533     18.0%        2,237     -3.1%
London PM fix, US$/oz                 1,668.98     1,446.00     -13.4% 1,651.34 1,686.34       1,523.29      -7.8%    1,369.00    -18.8%
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
Totals may not add due to independent rounding. Net producer hedging is the change in the physical market impact of mining companies’
gold loans, forwards and options positions. Implied net investment is the residual from combining all other Thomson Reuters GFMS data
on gold supply/demand as shown in the Summary Table. As such, it captures the net physical impact of all transactions not covered by the
other supply/demand variables.


                            SUPPLY                                                                                                                                        DEMAND

                                                       ——Mine production was 3% higher in the first half                                                                      ——Jewellery fabrication jumped by 22.8% in the first
                                                         compared with the first half of 2012                                                                                   half, in response to a marked decline in gold prices.
                                                       —— Global scrap supply fell 14% to an estimated 662                                                                    ——First half industrial demand slipped by 1.3%.

                                                         tonnes chiefly as a result of weaker gold prices.                                                                    ——Net official sector purchases dropped by 32.0% to
                                                                                                                                                                                191 tonnes in the first half of 2013.
                            Global mine production in the first half of 2013 increased                                                                                        ——Producers’ dehedging increased, with some miners
                            by 41 tonnes or 3%, to total 1,416 tonnes. Geographically,                                                                                          taking advantage of lower prices to close positions.
                            gains were diverse, with notable increases in China, the                                                                                          ——World Investment plunged by 28.3% to 517 tonnes.
                            Dominican Republic, Canada and Russia. In several
                            instances, especially the Dominican Republic and                                                                                              Jewellery fabrication in the first half of 2013 rose by a
                            Canada, these gains were driven by capacity additions                                                                                         substantial 22.8% year-on-year and, in terms excluding
                            from new projects ramping up output. Production that                                                                                          scrap, by an even more buoyant 42.8%. It should be of
                            has been put onto care-and-maintenance as a result of                                                                                         little surprise to see such a strong performance, given the
                            lower gold prices has been modest and we expect little                                                                                        8% decline in the average gold price, with gains largely
                            change to this in the near term. Mining companies are,                                                                                        driven by a surge in demand for jewellery across much
                            though, implementing cost containment measures, via                                                                                           of the key consuming markets in the developing world
                            the reduction of capital expenditure and the slowing                                                                                          in response to the gold price correction. Much of the
                            of project development, this has been accompanied by                                                                                          first half growth of 211 tonnes, however, was the result of
                            large-scale asset impairment charges recorded by many                                                                                         gains in China and India, which saw combined demand
                            of the major producers.                                                                                                                       rise by over 170 tonnes, representing approximately 80%
                                                                                                                                                                          of the period’s total gains. Excluding these two countries
                            Global scrap supply fell by 14% in the first half of 2013                                                                                     from the global total shows that jewellery offtake in the
                            to an estimated 662 tonnes. A declining price trend in                                                                                        rest of the world grew by 10.2%.
                            the first quarter followed by the acute price correction in
                            mid-April and again in June led to a notable reduction                                                                                        Indian jewellery fabrication jumped by 25% in the first
                            in recycling across most key regions. Sizeable falls                                                                                          half of the year to almost 350 tonnes, as demand for
                            were recorded in both the industrialised and developing                                                                                       jewellery soared in the second quarter in response to the
                            world with double digit declines commonplace across                                                                                           price retreat. Similarly, lower gold prices were the main
                            most markets. The largest drop was recorded in India                                                                                          driver behind a notable growth in China, which enjoyed
                            where scrap supply slumped by 45% for the period due                                                                                          a 41% or near 100 tonne rise, to a record of 345 tonnes.
                            to a weaker rupee gold price, assisted in the main by a                                                                                       Elsewhere, given its historical price sensitivity, it is not
                            near 70% year-on-year decline in the second quarter.                                                                                          surprising that jewellery fabrication in the Middle East
                            Elsewhere, scrap recycling followed a similar trajectory                                                                                      rose by 19% year-on-year, with double-digit percentage
                            with first half supply dragged down by a 22% year-on-                                                                                         gains across much of the region.
                            year drop in global return in the second quarter. Scrap
                            from Europe and East Asia fell by 13% year-on-year, while                                                                                     Turning to the industrialised world, jewellery fabrication
                            supply from the Middle East retreated 15% from last year.                                                                                     in the United States was up by 8% in the first half, due
                                                                                                                                                                          to a combination of weaker gold prices and improving
                            GOLD PRICE AND TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR                                                                                                          consumer sentiment. By contrast, European jewellery
                                     Ch1 Gold price and TW$
                                                                                                                                                                          fabrication continued to decline, registering a 5% drop
                                                       2000                                                    60                                                         in the first half, as a result of ongoing structural changes
                                                                                                                      Trade Weighted Dollar Index (H1.03=100, inverted)

                                                                                              Gold Price
                                                                                                                                                                          (such as a shift from plain jewellery pieces towards
                                                       1600                                                    70
                                                                                                                                                                          gemset) and a still challenging economic environment,
                             US$/oz (period average)

                                                                                                                                                                          although weaker gold prices helped to mitigate the
                                                       1200                                                    80
                                                              Trade Weighted Dollar
                                                                                                                                                                          losses somewhat.

                                                        800                                                    90
                                                                                                                                                                          Industrial fabrication dropped by 1.3% in the first half;
                                                                                                                                                                          much of that was driven by the 9.2% drop in dental
                                                        400                                                    100
                                                                                                                                                                          offtake due to ongoing substitution. Demand for
                                                                                                                                                                          electronics and other industrial & decorative uses
                                         H1-03    H1-05     H1-07                     H1-09   H1-11        H1-13                                                          remained flat year-on-year.
                                 Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS


Producer de-hedging contributed a net 26 tonnes of              MARKET OUTLOOK
demand in the first half-year. While it could be assumed
that as the price fell steeply gold miners would have           Notable improvements in gold’s underlying supply/
moved to hedging, so far they have largely kept clear.          demand fundamentals, and a rush to physical gold in
Indeed, many Australian focused producers took the              particular, have been among the key factors to provide

                                                                                                                                                            SUMMARY AND PRICE OUTLOOK
opportunity actively to close out hedges as prices fell,        some cushion to gold following two price crashes in the
continuing the global trend of overall reductions.              second quarter. Nevertheless, while we remain generally
                                                                positive about physical demand, such heightened
Net official sector purchases slowed notably in the             volumes will prove hard to sustain for the rest of the
first six months of 2013, falling by 32.0% to 191 tonnes.       year. Furthermore, while we have witnessed widespread
Nevertheless, it is important to stress that, despite the       gains in physical offtake in the year-to-date, the gold
hefty drop, the absolute total stayed relatively high           market has still relied heavily on India and China, with
by historical standards, as the argument for reserve            their combined share of global gold demand standing
diversification for developing countries remained in            at 54% in the first half. With a weakening Indian rupee
place. Consistent with the trend in the previous year, the      and a series of measures by the government to curb gold
bulk of gross official sector purchases was accounted for       imports, demand in India is forecast to be some way short
by emerging market countries, although the sharp rise           of the elevated level in the second quarter. Turning to
in gold price volatility seems to have deterred certain         China, the prospect for local demand is more promising,
central banks from making fresh purchases.                      but growth is expected to cool down once the general
                                                                public starts to become accustomed to new price levels
World Investment slumped by 28.3% year-on-year to               and bargain hunting recedes.
517 tonnes in the first half of 2013, the lowest figure
since 2009. If measured in dollar terms, the fall was           While demand from the key consuming markets may
even steeper, with the equivalent value of this demand          well slacken somewhat, we expect restrained supply
dropping by almost 34% to roughly $25 bn.                       to remain in place in the second half. Our forecast is
                                                                primarily based on an assumption that scrap supply
Such a considerable fall was almost entirely a result of        will fall by 12.2% on a year-on-year basis, as a return to
heavy liquidation by institutional investors. Illustrative of   mid-$1,400s will not be sufficient to stimulate a wave of
the trend was implied net disinvestment, which reached          recycling. At the same time, mine production is expected
456 tonnes in the first half. There were several reasons        to rise marginally. More importantly, despite a hefty
behind this growing disenchantment with gold. First             price decline, producers have so far remained resistant to
and foremost, increasing perceptions that the decade-           engaging in hedging as a strategy for preserving revenue.
long gold bull market would soon come to an end seems
to have encouraged a wave of profit taking, especially          The underlying surplus in the gold market (which has
in light of improving yields in traditional assets such as      ballooned in recent years) is therefore likely to shrink
equities. While the initial selling was relatively modest,      by a fair amount this year. This, along with a probable
investor sentiment was soon hit by the news in mid-April        recovery in buy-side interest from professional investors
that the European Commission had suggested that                 and ongoing central bank purchases, should pave the
Cyprus sell gold reserves to raise funds. The situation         way for a decent price recovery later this year.
was then exacerbated by rising expectations that the
                                                                WORLD GOLD FABRICATION LESS SCRAP SUPPLY
Federal Reserve would soon begin tapering its QE
programme, further reducing gold’s safe haven appeal.                    1600                                                           2100

                                                                                                                   Gold Price           1800
While the first half witnessed substantial selling from
institutional investors, this was more than offset by a                                                                                 1500

surge in bargain hunting from small retail investors in                                                                             *

almost every key market, led by China and India. For                     800
instance, bar investment jumped by 52% to a new
record of 725 tonnes, while demand for official coins                                                                                   600
and medals & imitation coins also reported heavy gains.                                                                             *
Nevertheless, as demand in many regional markets tends
to be price sensitive, volumes started to ease following                0                                                               0
                                                                         H1-03      H1-05      H1-07       H1-09   H1-11        H1-13
the buying frenzy in late April and early May.                   Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
                                                                 *Forecast; Fabrication excludes all coins


                                                                                                               GOLD PRICES, 2012 - 2013

              2. GOLD PRICES IN 2013                                                                                                                                                     % change
                                                                                                                                                                                    y-o-y      13.H1
                                                                                                                                 12.H1          12.H2            13.H1        average intra-year
              •    Gold showed a two-legged violent correction in the first                                    US$/oz         1,651.34      1,686.34         1,523.29            -7.8%      -29.6%
              half-year, driven by emerging profit taking after a 13-year                                      Euro/kg         40,913         42,584           37,339            -8.7%      -25.9%
              bull run, in combination with a strengthening US economy.                                        Yen/g             4,231          4,324            4,671           10.4%        -17.8%
                                                                                                               Yuan/g          335.62          341.31          302.61            -9.8%      -30.7%
              •    The price fell 30% year-on-year in the first half to an                                     Rand/kg        420,921        459,761         450,637              7.1%       -14.7%
              intra-day low of $1,181/oz in June, stimulating further large                                    A$/oz           1,597.17     1,623.50         1,513.63            -6.1%         -17.7%
              UK-led ETF outflows. Demand for physical metal surged,                                           Rouble/g       1,621.45       1,711.56       1,500.34             -6.7%      -22.2%
              particularly from Asia, providing a floor for the falling price.                                 TL/g              95.35          97.35           88.66            -7.0%      -23.6%
                                                                                                               Rps/10g         28,579         30,873           28,734            0.5%       -18.0%
              Gold opened the year at $1,694/oz, a level almost                                                Rph/g         486,474         517,906         476,289             -2.1%       -25.1%
              $96/oz above that recorded in 2012. However, the                                                 Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
              relatively positive year-on-year comparison was not
              matched by an equally strong performance, as the
              opening of the year turned out to be just $3/oz shy of the                                       Gold prices in virtually every other currency saw large
              first half peak. Indeed, gold was trending in a downward                                         declines on an intra-year basis, with the Euro/kg, Yuan/g
              channel that started in October the prior year and tested                                        and Rph/g falls all considerable at 26%, 31% and 25%

              the upper parallel during January 2013. However, in                                              respectively. Year-on-year, gold prices in most currencies
              February, gold showed considerable weakness by falling                                           fell between 2-10%, except in Japan and South Africa.
              $90/oz towards the channel’s floor at $1,555/oz, which
              turned out to be a presage of what was about to come.                                            Gold started 2013 with a modest rally driven in part by
                                                                                                               the ongoing difficulties surrounding the fiscal cliff in
              Indeed, after various failed attempts to regain some of                                          the US. However, the upturn turned out to be of short
              its lost ground in March, gold fell off a cliff and recorded                                     duration as various gold-negative factors bit by bit
              its largest two day decline in its recent bull-run, shaving                                      started to unwind. Indeed, the year began with increased
              off nearly $228/oz or 28% from the annual high to a low                                          wariness among investors who were concerned about
              of 1,321/oz in mid-April. In the following two months                                            gold’s ability to stage another year of price increases
              a bounce emerged forming, from a technical point of                                              following a 13-year bull run. As a consequence, some
              view, a cup-and-handle formation, which implied that                                             profit taking emerged, driven also by largely diminished
              another correction was on the horizon. Consequently,                                             concerns over the European sovereign debt crisis, in
              gold proceeded with a second leg to the downside, albeit                                         combination with a rising risk-on attitude from investors,
              less pronounced than the previous one, falling another                                           allocating increased funds into rising equity markets.
              $156/oz from the previous low to $1,181/oz by end-June,
              representing a total first-half high-to-low price decline of                                     This development was particularly reflected in gold ETFs,
              $374 or 30%.                                                                                     which slowly but surely started to witness outflows across


                              2000                                                                                                                                                    90
                                     Fed says interest FOMC minutes        Mario Draghi pledges    Indian goverment raises     President Obama
                                      rates to stay low released, no sign       to do “whatever import tax on gold and platinum signs into effect
                                     until at least 2014 of QE3                                                                                                     FED announced
                                                                                it takes” to save        from 4% to 6%           spending cuts
                                                                    Spain seeks                                                                                 it could start slowing
                              1800                                                       the euro                             known as sequester
                                                                 banking rescue                                                                                     asset purchases    95
                                                                                                                                                     EC annouces by end-2013
                                                                                                                                                                                            (Inverted, 3rd Jan=100)
                                                                                                                                                                                            Trade Weighted Dollar

                                                                                                Gold Price                                          Cyprus to sell depending on
                              1600                                                                                                                  €400mn worth       economic
                                                                                                                                                        of gold        conditions

                                                                              Trade Weighted                                                                                          100
                                                                                                   Fed launches QE3 and anticipates
                                        S&P downgrades                                                  low interest rates to mid-2015
                                        9 Eurozone                                          German court ratifies
                                                           Francois Hollande
                                        nations, 14 put on    elected as
                                                                                            Eurozone  permanent                 FED will keep int rate                                105
                              1200      negative outlook French President                   rescue fund                       near zero until unplment ECB cuts int
                                                                                         ECB announces Barack Obama               falls below 6.5%     rate to new low  India raises
                                     ECB launches               Fed extends “Operation “unlimited” bond re-elected President Obama signs 0.5% amid region’s import duty
                                     second round of LTRO           Twist”until year-end buying scheme US President bill to avoid “fiscal cliff”       ongoing worries on gold to 10%
                         1000                                                                                                                                                        110
                           Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr                May     Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep     Oct    Nov     Dec Jan-13 Feb       Mar    Apr      May     Jun    Jul   Aug    Sep
                      Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS


                                                                                    VOLATILITY (US$ SPOT)
the board. Indeed, in the first quarter, various funds such
as SPDR, iShares Gold Trust and ETFS Physical Gold all                                2007                                              2008        2009                  2010           2011                2012
recorded net outflows of 10%, 3% and 7% respectively.                               		 15.8%                                            31.7%      21.4%                15.9%          21.4%             16.5%
On Comex also, sentiment turned sour with a record-                                   12.Q1                                             12.Q2       12.Q3                12.Q4          13.Q1               13.Q2

breaking build in speculative short positions, which                                		20.0%                                             19.8%      14.3%                 11.7%          11.9%            10.7%

totalled some 447 tonnes in mid-July.
                                                                                    GOLD PRICE CORRELATIONS*
By now, sentiment clearly had turned bearish which                                  		12.Q3                                                                                   12.Q4      13.Q1          13.Q2
stimulated a nervous sentiment in the market. Therefore,                            US$/Euro Rate		                                                         0.53               0.21       0.09               0.37
when the European Commission suggested that the                                     Silver		                                                               0.69               0.50         0.51              0.78
Cypriot central bank should sell €400M (equivalent to                               Oil (WTI)		                                                             0.24               0.26       0.25           0.40
ten tonnes at that point) of its gold holdings to finance                           CRB Index		                                                             0.12               0.18        0.12              0.47
part of its European rescue package, the gold price                                 S&P 500		                                                               0.27               0.11        0.11              0.31
started to drop and this quickly developed into a violent                           Comex ‘Investor’                                                        0.83               0.75       0.88           -0.15
move down, as hoards of investors and speculators                                   *basis daily log-returns, save for non-commercial & non-reportable
                                                                                    net Comex positions where weekly.
headed for the exit. In the grand scheme of things,
                                                                                    Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
Cyprus’ potential gold sale of 10 tonnes was almost
negligible; what spooked investors was the possibility
that the independence of various European-based central

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             GOLD PRICES
banks would become jeopardised, particularly if ‘The                                ETF outflows continued throughout the second quarter,
Troika’ were to obtain authority to force cash strapped                             with holdings falling 22% over the half. Meanwhile what
nations to sell gold holdings in order to receive funding.                          had become obvious was the strong divergence between
Were Italy or Spain forced to take similar measures, for                            the paper and the physical market. Indeed, as bearish
example, the impact on the market would be far more                                 sentiment prevailed in digitally traded gold, physical
pronounced.                                                                         demand such as bars, coins and jewellery surged,
                                                                                    particularly from the Far East. Strong trade flows were
However, the central bank of Cyprus kept its                                        recorded between the UK and Switzerland, where Good
independence and the country received its bail-out                                  Delivery metal was refined to smaller bars and shipped
without having to sell any of its gold reserves. This                               to India and China.
was well received by the market and gold bounced
accordingly, from an intermediate low of $1,321/oz to as                            This development, however, was not well received by
high as $1,488/oz during early May. Investors, however,                             the Indian government, which was suffering from a
continued allocating their funds into higher yielding                               burgeoning current account deficit. Duty on gold imports
assets, mainly driven by a series of optimistic US data                             was raised several times, eventually reaching 10%,
releases, which in turn fuelled the debate at the Fed                               which did slightly curb the balance, but also stimulated
to start tapering later in the year. Consequently, gold                             unofficial inflows. However, all negative spill-over effects
plateaued in a range of $1,400-1,440/oz, then shortly                               aside, the strength in physical demand did eventually
after started its second leg to the downside in mid-June.                           provide a price floor above $1,180/oz at the end of June.


                                200                                                                                                40                                                                 0.5
                                                                                      Rolling 1-month volatility (%, annualised)

                                            Real Gold Price
                                                                                                                                            Leasing Rate
                                                                                                                                   30                                                                 0.0
    Index, January 2009 = 100

                                                                                                                                                                                                              1-month Leasing Rate (%)

                                                                                                                                   20                                                                 -0.5
                                                              Consumption Price

                                                                                                                                   10                                                                 -1.0
                                      Production Price

               75                                                                            0                                                                                                        -1.5
                 Jan-09      Jan-10                Jan-11      Jan-12      Jan-13           Jan-10 Jul     Jan-11                                          Jul       Jan-12    Jul    Jan-13    Jul
         Source: Thomson Reuters                                                      Source: Thomson Reuters


              GOLD, OIL AND THE CRB INDEX                                                           GOLD
                                                                                                      Ch2PRICE   AND
                                                                                                          Gold price andUS$/EURO

                                                  125                                                           2000                                               1.6

                                                                                                                1800                                               1.5
                   Index, 4th January 2012= 100

                                                                                                                                                Gold Price
                                                                                                                1600                                               1.4


                                                                                                                1400                                               1.3

                                                                                                                1200                                               1.2

                               50                                                                         1000                                                     1.1
                                Jan-12   Apr                  Jul      Oct   Jan-13   Apr     Jul             Jan-12    Apr      Jul   Oct   Jan-13   Apr    Jul
                         Source: Thomson Reuters                                                        Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

              PRICE OUTLOOK                                                                         as the country’s underlying economy is still fragile with
                                                                                                    only moderate inflation pressures. We expect very loose
              Following the strong price correction in the first half-year,                         monetary policies to remain in place for an extended
              gold showed considerable resilience by staging a 21%                                  period with the low interest environment extending
              recovery from June lows to as high as $1,433/oz by the                                throughout 2015.

              end of August. Much of the increase was supported by a
              professional investor-led short-covering rally, on top of                             Elsewhere, central banks in other key economic countries
              strong physical demand from Asia and the Middle East.                                 have also stated a preference towards maintaining
              This in conjunction with restrained supply pushed gold                                loose policy in order not to choke off their improving
              into backwardation, a phenomenon last witnessed in                                    economies. In addition, as we head into festival periods
              1999 when, as part of the Central Bank Gold Agreement,                                for jewellery purchases (particularly in China and India)
              the signatories stated that they would not be expanding                               further interest for physical demand in Asia is likely.
              their existing lent gold positions.                                                   However, recent geopolitical tensions regarding Syria
                                                                                                    could lead to a wider Middle East conflict, which could
              Gold’s ability to stage further price gains for the                                   in turn stimulate another short covering rally as net
              remainder of the year will largely depend on                                          positions on Comex have left room for that to emerge.
              developments in the US and its labour market which,
              while still fragile, has shown improvements in recent                                 In summary, the argument for investing in gold should
              months. Indeed, particularly since the Fed has tied its QE                            remain in place for long-term investors, although short
              mandate towards developments in the unemployment                                      term challenges remain on the horizon. Taking all into
              rate, the FOMC meetings and the non-farm payroll                                      consideration, gold should continue its upward trend in
              releases have almost become price trend determining                                   the fourth quarter and test $1,480/oz, the level where
              events. Consequently, despite stock markets around the                                the second major correction started to decelerate back
              world having shown signs of considerable weakness at                                  in May of this year. With a little bit of momentum,
              times, the general trend is still up and new highs are still                          gold could test the psychologically important $1,500/
              being recorded. It looks unlikely that this will change                               oz level and possibly have a look at the major $1,526/
              much this year, particularly if the US continues to present                           oz resistance area in as early as the first quarter of the
              solid underlying macroeconomic figures with the dollar                                next year, being it mainly due to seasonal reasons. This
              consequently remaining resilient. In general, we remain                               scenario would be most likely in the event that the Fed
              of the view that the gold market remains cautious.                                    held off tapering until at least late 2014, as we imply
                                                                                                    above. If tapering were announced sooner rather than
              Be that as it may, there are several factors still present                            later, gold would likely stage another leg to the downside
              in the market that support a case for a stronger gold                                 potentially testing the June lows, which would not be a
              price. Indeed, despite the labour market improving,                                   particularly bright start to the New Year.
              investors might argue that the current unemployment
              rate of 7.4% is still well away from the 6.5% threshold
              level that the Fed has indicated as a starting point for
              a more dovish macroeconomic course. And even when
              stimulus is scaled back, the exit will be long and gradual


•    World Investment weakened by 28% to 517 tonnes in                     back into the equity market. Supporting the view was a
the first half of 2013, with the fall in the equivalent value of           generally disappointed gold investor community, which,
this demand even steeper.                                                  after the summer rally in 2012, generally had been
                                                                           expecting gold to breach the $1,800 mark, and which
•    The hefty decline was due entirely to 456 tonnes of                   instead was faced with a poorly performing yellow metal.
implied net disinvestment, reflecting aggressive selling from              As expectations grew that the decade-long bull market
institutional investors over the period.                                   might soon come to an end, a rising number of funds
                                                                           took profits in gold with a view to moving back to high-
Investment demand remained the main driver of price                        yielding assets.
fluctuations throughout the first half of 2013. At present,
World Investment is estimated to have tumbled by 28%                       Another key factor that encouraged funds to cut their
to 517 tonnes in the first half of 2013, the lowest half-                  exposure to gold was the yellow metal’s fading appeal
yearly figure since the onset of the global financial crisis.              as a safe haven. In part, this reflected an absence of
The picture is even more disappointing if measured in                      imminent inflationary pressure in the key economies and
dollar terms, with the approximate value of this demand                    growing expectations that the Fed would start to taper
plunging by 34% to $25 bn.                                                 its asset purchase programmes sooner than had been
                                                                           expected. Even though real interest rates remained
The fall was largely attributable to heavy investment                      negative in many countries, improving returns on
outflows from institutional players, especially mutual                     traditional assets raise the opportunity cost of carrying
and hedge funds. This is highlighted in our implied                        bullion. Also of importance have been less acute fears
net investment figure, a proxy for institutional investor                  about the sovereign debt situation in Europe.
activity, which shifted to negative territory and hit minus
456 tonnes in the first half. By contrast, interest in                     A generally more cautious attitude towards the overall
gold from retail investors (who historically dominate                      commodities complex among institutional investors
purchases of physical bullion products) soared in the first                also restrained gold investment in the first half of the
half, with our estimates for both bars and coins reaching                  year. Apart from a relatively strong dollar, a slowdown in
record highs in our data series (on a half-yearly basis).                  emerging market countries and increasing concerns that
                                                                           the commodity supercycle could soon come to an end

With regard to the drivers of gold investment demand,                      seems to have weighed on investor sentiment.
economic developments in the United States were
probably the single most important factor at play,                         That said, it is of note that the bulk of these
particularly in relation to their impact on the Fed’s                      aforementioned outflows in the first half stemmed
monetary policy and professional investors’ assessment                     from loose-handed investors, particularly those that
of risk. Indeed, as the “fiscal cliff” was avoided at the                  were technically driven. By contrast, substantial core
start of 2013 and the country’s economy continued to                       long positions were maintained by long-term investors,
gain momentum, asset managers started to pile money                        despite increasing headwinds on the gold price.

WORLD INVESTMENT                                                           KEY MARKET INDICATORS

(tonnes)                         12.H1     12.H2     13.H1    13.H2F       (end-period)		    August Change                        Intra-
Implied Net Investment*            90        222      -456       243                    2012   2013   y-o-y                         year
Physical Bar Investment            477      468        725       441       S&P 500                1,426       1,633      16%       12%
Official Coins                     104        93       179        127      CRB Index               484         473       -4%       -2%
Medals and Imitation Coins          49        64        69        40       XAU Index                166         103     -39%      -39%
Total                              721      847        517       851       US 30-year Bond       2.94%       3.68%        n/a       n/a
Indicative Value US$ (bn)**         38        46        25            37   Gold Price $/oz     1,657.50    1,394.75      -15%      -18%
 *Implied net investment is the residual from combining all of the         Contango (3-mth)      0.35%       0.03%        n/a       n/a
other Thomson Reuters GFMS data on gold supply/demand as                   US$ Libor (3-mth)     0.31%       0.26%        n/a       n/a
shown in the Summary Table.				                                            Source: Thomson Reuters
As such it captures the net physical impact of all transactions not
covered by the other supply/demand variables.
**Indicative values calculated using average gold prices.


             It is also interesting to note that while the first half of                                     IMPLIED NET INVESTMENT
             2013 witnessed considerable selling from institutional
             investors, appetite for physical gold investment products                                          ——Substantial ETF outflows, combined with heavy
             at the “gross roots” level showed an extraordinary rise                                                liquidation of investor positions on Comex, saw
             over the same period. Such a divergent outcome is                                                      implied net disinvestment of 456 tonnes in the first
             largely related to the fact that small retail investors,                                               half of 2013.
             particularly those in the developing world, tend to be
             price sensitive. As the gold price recorded its largest one-                                    The implied net (dis)investment figure is not
             day drop in more than three decades in mid-April, it is not                                     independently calculated, but derived as the item which
             surprising that bargain hunting exploded in almost every                                        brings gold supply and demand into balance. The
             major consuming market across Asia and the Middle                                               figure should therefore not be seen as an exact tonnage
             East. Nevertheless, as gold prices continued to weaken                                          equivalent but instead an indication of investment activity
             and bearish sentiment started to develop, demand for                                            separate from retail bar and coin demand. Additionally,
             bullion coins and bars in response to the second price                                          although a substantial majority of this tonnage will
             dip in late June was more restrained, although volumes                                          reflect such activity, implied net (dis)investment could
             were still healthy. Turning to western markets, retail                                          also include other flows that, technically, are outside the
             investment also posted healthy gains in the first half.                                         definition of investment. One example is the impact of
             Notably weaker prices were obviously important to the                                           any central bank activity that is not being picked up in
             rise, but a more fitting interpretation of these gains is                                       our official sector figures and that would, as a result, be
             that ongoing uncertainty regarding the economic and                                             absorbed within our implied net (dis)investment category.
             fiscal situations encouraged certain “buy-and-hold”                                             Despite this caveat, implied net (dis)investment typically
             investors to take advantage of lower prices to add gold                                         does provide a clear indication of the overall impact of
             holdings as a means of wealth preservation.                                                     investor activity on the market for the period discussed.
                                                                                                             Furthermore, using information collected through field
             Looking ahead, although an improving outlook for the                                            research and publicly available data, Thomson Reuters
             US economy has raised the probability that the Fed                                              GFMS performs a ‘reality check’ on these values.
             will start to scale back its stimuli after its September
             FOMC meeting, the majority of the negative factors have                                         Our implied figure turned negative in the first half of
             already been “priced in” by the market. Furthermore, we                                         this year, with net disinvestment totalling 456 tonnes,
             would expect major central banks, including the Fed, to                                         a sharp contrast to the same period of last year when
             maintain accommodative monetary policy, while liquidity                                         the market saw implied net investment of 90 tonnes. A

             will remain ample for an extended period. The argument                                          close analysis of quarterly developments suggests that
             for gold investment therefore should remain intact for                                          this was, in some part, due to a higher disinvestment
             long-term investors. In addition, as the new round of                                           figure in the first three months of 2013 compared
             debt negotiations starts in the United States, the scope                                        with the corresponding period in 2012. The majority,
             for a further rise in the equity market could be somewhat                                       however, took place in the second quarter, which saw net
             limited. As the bulk of the speculative froth has already                                       disinvestment of close to 330 tonnes, a dramatic change
             been removed from the market, this leaves plenty of                                             from a year earlier, with 112 tonnes of positive demand.
             room for a decent rebound in investment inflows to gold.

             WORLD INVESTMENT                                                                                GOLD AND THE BENCHMARK YIELD CURVE

                       1500            Coins**                                               2000                   3.0                                                          2000
                                                                                                                                                  Gold Price
                                       Physical Bar Investment
                                       Implied Net (Dis)investment                           1800
                       1000                                                                                         2.5
                                                                                             1600                                                                                1500
                                                                                                                                                         Benchmark curve



                                                                                                                                                         (2yr-10yr spread)
                       500                                                                   1400                   2.0

                                                                                             1200                                                                                1000
                         0                                                                                           1.5
                                                                                             1000                              The Benchmark yield curve reflects
                       -250                                                                                                             inflationary expectations
                                  Gold price
                       -500                                                                  800                     1.0                                                         500
                            H1-09         H1-10     H1-11       H1-12        H1-13                                    Jan-10            Jan-11           Jan-12         Jan-13
                  Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
                                                                                                                Source: Thomson Reuters
                  *Forecast; **Official coins and medals & imitation coins


                                                                GOLD ETFS AND OTHER SECURITISED PRODUCTS
The key driver behind the selling in the first half of the
                                                                          2800                                                         2000
year was growing optimism that the US economy was                                     Other
gaining traction, which generated concerns that the Fed                   2400        iShares Gold
could end its bond purchase programme sooner than                         2000
                                                                                      SPDR Gold Shares

previously expected and which thus significantly reduced                              NewGold
investor appetite for safe haven assets. This translated                              GBS (LSE listed)

into dramatic selling on Comex, with net positions                        1200
                                                                                        Gold Price                                     800
dropping to a multi-year low by end-June, coupled with
heavy outflows from gold ETFs.                                                                                                         400

It is interesting to examine how the implied figure                          0                                                         0
compares with information on activity within the                             Jan-04    Jan-06        Jan-08    Jan-10    Jan-12
different arenas of gold investment (although given                  Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, collated from respective ETF issuers’ data

aforementioned limitations in this information, it is not
possible to disaggregate accurately the implied figure          net daily dollar outflow was $27.4 billion. While the
into these components). Due to the nature of gold ETFs          first three months of the year registered heavy outflows,
and other similar products, we are certain that the near        the bulk of the first half’s drop was concentrated in
580-tonne decline in ETF holdings had a one-to-one              the second quarter, which saw the largest quarterly
impact on the volume of investment. The picture is              redemption of over 400 tonnes since the launch of the
somewhat more opaque when it comes to the futures               first gold ETF in early 2003.
and OTC markets. As for the former, at end-June, non-
commercial and non-reportable net positions in Comex            The key reason behind the selling at the start of the
futures were 477 tonnes lower than the end-2012 figure.         year was growing speculation that the Fed may end
Turning to the OTC market, however, the first half-year         its monetary stimulus earlier than expected as the US
saw robust volumes of investment.                               economy continued to show signs of improvement, which
                                                                reduced gold’s safe haven appeal. As we moved further
INVESTMENT IN EXCHANGE LISTED                                   into the second quarter, the fall was exacerbated by
STRUCTURED PRODUCTS                                             politicians’ suggestions in mid-April that Cyprus should
                                                                sell from its national gold reserves to help its fiscal
    ——Demand for exchange listed structured products            situation, which translated into heavy ETF outflows of
      remained lacklustre in first half of 2013.                some 175 tonnes during the month. While the pace of

                                                                selling then somewhat abated, investors remained firmly
Investor interest in certificates and warrants was once         on the sell-side, driving total ETF holdings to a multi-
again limited in the first half, particularly when it came to   year low of 2,112 tonnes at end-June. The largest decline
its net impact on the physical market and the gold price.       during the first half was registered by SPDR Gold Shares,
As we have discussed in previous Surveys, this is strongly      which saw an outflow of some 380 tonnes, representing
related to a structural issue with the market in recent         almost two-thirds of the period’s total losses.
years, as small retail investors interested in the yellow
metal have tended to shy away from leveraged paper              COMMODITIES EXCHANGES ACTIVITY
products and opted for the more conservative option such
as physical bullion bars and coins.                                       ——Trading volumes on major commodity exchanges
                                                                            posted strong performance in the first half of 2013.
    ——Total ETF holdings dropped by 22% in the first half of
      2013, to its lowest level since June 2010.                Total volumes in gold futures traded on Comex in the
                                                                first half of 2013 rose by 10% to just above 26 million
Combined ETF holdings dropped by nearly 580 tonnes              contracts, equivalent to a nominal daily average of
during the first half, to 2,112 tonnes at end-June, down        653 tonnes. Open interest (409,081 contracts) by end-
by 22% from a record high of almost 2,700 tonnes at the         June was down 2% against a year previously. Analysis
start of the year. In value terms, the decline was even         of the data published by CFTC in its weekly reports
more material at 44%, with total holdings at end-June           on non-commercial and non-reportable net positions
amounting to approximately $80 billion, while the total         in Comex futures can be used as a proxy for investor


             INVESTMENT IN COMMODITIES                                                              Since this time, and as shown in the chart below, the net-length
                                                                                                    seen in the gold market has recovered in value terms, and gold
             The chart below illustrates quarterly data that Thomson Reuters                        still remains second only to crude oil on this basis. Indeed it is
             GFMS has compiled on net investor positions in 22 futures                              the more liquid asset classes that have picked up most net-
             contracts using CFTC data (non-commercial and non-reportable                           length since a significant pullback in the second quarter saw
             categories). Although this captures only a partial view of                             33% of the value of Comex positions lost, equivalent to $24 bn.
             the commodities universe, it nonetheless provides a useful
             indication of prevailing market trends.                                                The major change in the commodities investor space has been
                                                                                                    the large crude oil positions built up in the energy sector, as
             So far 2013 has seen a lack of investor confidence across asset                        a tentative economic recovery has gained traction along with
             classes and this has seen a number of swings in investment                             a substantial risk premium associated with the Middle East.
             flows both into and out of commodity markets. In gold the                              Concern over Iranian, Iraqi and Libyan supply and the possibility
             net speculative long position was in July at its lowest since                          of a regional conflagration stemming from the Syrian conflict
             2001 as record short positions were built. During this time                            have all weighed heavily on markets.
             Comex speculative shorts reached all-time highs, equating to
             447 tonnes, before a subsequent short-covering rally helped                            Those that have fallen from favour appear to be the less liquid
             prices to recover. The short positions were built alongside the                        asset classes that had attracted investor interest throughout the
             689 tonne exodus from ETF holdings seen between January and                            credit crisis and recession as capable of providing a short-term
             August that saw gold’s thirteen year bull run come to an end.                          return. Net-length in our Other (primarily soft commodity) and
                                                                                                    Livestock categories have seen net-speculative length fall from a
                                                                                                    peak of $56 bn late 2010 to $17.8 bn in late August 2013. Those
                                                                                                    commodities still carrying significant speculative long-positions
                                                                                                    include soybeans ($12.4 bn), cotton ($3.3 bn) and cocoa ($1.6
                                140   Other*
                                100   Silver                                                        Many funds have re-weighted towards equity markets in 2013
                                      Gold                                                          and this trend is thought likely to continue. Investor interest in
                  US$ Billion

                                                                                                    commodities has grown substantially since the commodities
                                                                                                    boom began however and lack of investment on the supply side
                                                                                                    of many markets being seen today is already sowing the seeds
                                20                                                                  of the next market shortages. Likewise the potential for higher

                                 0                                                                  cyclical demand growth in both the developed economics and
                        -20                                                                         developing markets is likely to see continued investor interest in
                            Q1-08    Q1-09     Q1-10            Q1-11      Q1-12       Q1-13        commodities markets moving forward.
                    Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
                    *Other includes soft, agricultural and dairy commodities, platinum, palladium
                    and copper

             activity on the exchange. The first half of the year was                               OTHER EXCHANGES
             characterised by aggressive long liquidation coupled
             with a rapid expansion in gross short positions. From an                               While global futures trading has been for long dominated
             opening of 555 tonnes, net “investor” positions tumbled                                by Comex, the last few years have witnessed strong
             by 80% to below 110 tonnes by late June (the lowest level                              investor activity on a number of other commodity
             since September 2002), and this was a key factor behind                                exchanges around the world, particularly in China and
             the dramatic fall in the gold price over the period. The                               India, helped by market liberalisation and an increase in
             main driver of heavy sell-offs seen in the first half was an                           investor interest in commodities.
             improving US economy along with growing speculation
             that the Fed could start to taper its stimulus programme                               The first half of 2013 saw a significant rise in trading
             sooner than expected, which weighed heavily on investor                                volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE).
             attitude towards gold. Meanwhile, an absence of near-                                  Turnover for the spot contract (AU9999 and AU9995)
             term inflation pressure and less acute concerns about the                              more than doubled to reach 1,981 tonnes in the first half
             sovereign debt situation in Europe and the United States                               year. Along with this was a massive increase in delivery
             also further undermined gold’s safe haven appeal.                                      of physical gold out of the exchange’s vault and a sharp
                                                                                                    rise in daily premia, which hit an all-time-high of $56/oz



(total volume in nominal tonne equivalents)			                    (total volume in nominal tonne equivalents)
                               11.H2     12.H1 12.H2      13.H1                                  11.H2     12.H1 12.H2                                                     13.H1
Comex                       80,914    73,845   62,679    80,981   SGE Spot                                                          942          970             931        1,981
Tocom                        8,517    5,940     5,955     7,510   SGE AU(T+D)                                                     3,474         2,176      2,049           3,055
NYSE Liffe*                   1,341      631      496       711   SHFE                                                            12,501       6,414       5,420           7,301
*Includes both the 100-ounce and 33.2-ounce contracts.            MCX                                                             11,032       6,562       6,042           7,033
Source: Thomson Reuters		                                         DGCX                                                              133          257             295            258
                                                                  Source: Respective exchanges

on 13th May. As will be discussed in detail in the relevant       published by the LBMA all indicate that a substantial
parts of this report, such heightened turnover was driven         amount of large gold bars (from redemptions of ETFs
by robust physical demand in response to a weakening              and sales from unallocated accounts) were shipped to
gold price. Meanwhile, speculative interest was also              Switzerland from mid-April to be converted to small bars
elevated, as turnover of SGE’s AU(T+D) contracts posted           for markets in Asia and the Middle East. Meanwhile,
a double-digit increase in the first half. China’s Shanghai       direct shipments, albeit more restrained, from the United
Futures Exchange registered a 14% year-on-year growth             Kingdom to the Far East also jumped, as refineries
in turnover. Furthermore, following a rapid expansion             reached full capacity.
of trading volumes in recent years, both exchanges in
Shanghai launched additional evening trading sessions             Metal accounts held by western high-net-worth investors
to boost market liquidity more recently.                          also posted a net rise, largely reflecting gold’s traditional
                                                                  role as a means of wealth preservation. This was also
India’s Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained an                partly related to the ongoing shift out of gold ETFs, as
important commodity exchange for gold futures trading             metal accounts offered lower fees, while transactions
on a global basis. Total volumes in the first half of 2013        in the OTC market were less transparent than in ETFs.
saw a 7% year-on-year increase, which was largely a               Interest in gold deposit accounts (a product that targets
reflection of frequent policy changes resulting in a build-       retail investors and is not included in our bar and coin
up of speculative and hedge positions by investors.               estimates) was also apparent in Turkey and China where
                                                                  the price fall sparked a robust response. The process was
OTC MARKET                                                        also facilitated with ongoing promotion of gold accounts
                                                                  by local banks, which helped to raise gold’s appeal.

    ——The OTC market witnessed robust volumes of
        purchases on a net basis over the January-June            PHYSICAL BAR INVESTMENT
                                                                                              —— Price declines push up bar investment by 52%.
As mentioned above, an analysis of components of our
implied net figure indicates that sizeable net investment         World demand for physical bars increased a staggering
occurred in the OTC market in the first half of 2013. This        52% during the first half, mainly driven by strong bargain
might seem surprising given that trading in the OTC               hunting across all regions on the major price correction.
market is dominated by institutional investors, who
were the key elements behind the steep price retreat.             NET “INVESTOR” POSITIONS IN COMEX FUTURES

Nevertheless, this should be viewed within divergent
                                                                                                           400                                                           2000
trends in OTC products over the period. Our information                                                          Non-reportable
suggests that heavy liquidation in conjunction with a                                                            Non-commercial
                                                                    Net positions (contracts, thousands)

                                                                                                                                            Settlement price
sharp rise in short-side interest were observed from                                                       300

shorter term investors, particularly after the price fell
below the physiologically important $1,500 mark.


Over the same period, as a shortage of bullion rapidly
developed in many regional markets and local premia                                                        100
jumped, transactions that were related to physical gold
transfer jumped in the London market. Feedback from                        0                                                                                             1000
our contacts, gold trade data and clearing statistics                     Jan-10 Jul    Jan-11    Jul                                Jan-12     Jul     Jan-13     Jul
                                                                    Source: CFTC, Thomson Reuters

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