Holiday 2021 Marketer's Guide to - Ovative Group
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Marketer’s Guide to Holiday 2021
So, what’s a
marketer to do?
What happened last year?
Executive 2020 sales and results were overall better than expected driven by
strong ecommerce growth, an elongated shopping season, and
Summary blurred lines between site and store. Three key events impacting the
2020 holiday season were:
1
1. Global Pandemic Maximize your
2. Election Year enterprise return.
Marked by a global pandemic, an election, and
3. Longest Season in History Starting with Prime Day Date in October Use a fluid investment strategy and
the longest shopping season in history, 2020
have frequent budget and scenario
was an unprecedented holiday season. While
conversations. Create up and down
many are hoping and planning for a “return to What we expect to change this year? scenarios including the following
normal,” consumer shopping behaviors have This year we expect the followng themes given consumer behavior
components:
and lifecycle of the pandemic:
changed, and marketers must be prepared to • Measurement
deliver this holiday season in new ways. WHO – Consumer Trends Impacting 2021 Shopping Season • Digital Experience
• Consumers are confident but not back to normal, with Delta variant • Enterprise Support
This year will require an elevated digital • Flighting
as main concern
experience, proactive budget and scenario • Unemployment has declined but is still higher than pre-pandemic • Promotions
planning, agile responsiveness to changes in • Categories
consumer trends, and ongoing alignment with WHERE – Holiday Shopping Channel Trends • Customer
fulfillment and operations teams to deliver on • Ecommerce will continue to grow faster than stores with a
consumer expectations. Below is a summary focus on mobile
of what you’ll find in the Marketer’s Guide to
• Lines will continue to be blurred between site and store 2
throughout the entire buying process as consumers expect a
Holiday 2021. digitally connected experience Align operations and
logistics with marketing.
WHEN – Dates to Be Aware Of
Know when and what inventory is
Enjoy and • Cyber 5 will return to prominence representing ~20% of the
available, sync messaging and spend
holiday season’s sales, and while shoppers will begin shopping
happy holidays! to your delivery strategy, consider ship
early it is not anticipated to be the same elongated season as 2020
cut-off dates, and lean into stores with
• Child tax credit payments are likely to drive spikes in shopping
Steve Baxter with six key payment dates July 15th -December 15th
BOPIS in metro areas.
Steve Baxter
WHAT – Anticipated Category Trends
EVP Media
• Expect spend on apparel, travel, events, and experience will grow 3
• Back-to-school will be an indicator of upcoming holiday
Expect the unexpected.
performance and consumer shopping behaviors
Build a playbook of likely potential
HOW – Considerations for Pricing and Fulfillment outcomes, closely monitor key
• Prices are rising compared to last year as supply chain pressure indicators, plan for each scenario,
continues and given observed lower prices in 2020 and be prepared to adjust in the
moment as reality plays out.
2
At a
Glance
4 What happened last year?
• Global Pandemic
• Election Year
• Prime Day Date Shift Created Longest Shopping
Season Ever
5 What we expect to change this year?
WHO – Consumer Trends Impacting 2021 Shopping Season
WHERE – Holiday Shopping Channel Trends
WHEN – Dates To Be Aware Of
WHAT – Anticipated Category Trends
HOW – Considerations for Pricing and Fulfillment
10 So, what’s a marketer to do?
Step 1: Maximize your enterprise return through
a fluid investment strategy and frequent
budget and scenario discussions
Step 2: Align operations and logistics
with marketing
Step 3: Expect the unexpected
3
What Happened Last Year?
Marked by a global pandemic, an election, and the longest shopping season in history,
2020 was an unprecedented holiday season. While many are hoping and planning for
“return to normal,” consumer shopping behaviors has changed, and marketers must be
prepared to deliver this holiday season in new ways. 2020 sales and results were overall
better than expected driven by strong ecommerce growth, blurred lines between site
and store, and an elongated shopping season for consumer spending.
THREE KEY EVENTS IMPACTING THE 2020 HOLIDAY SEASON WERE:
1 2 3 What should
marketers do?
Global Pandemic Election Year Longest Season in History
The COVID-19 pandemic was in A divisive election added Starting with Prime Day
Keep reading to find out what we
full swing—causing store closures, noise to the start of November, Date in October
expect to change this year given
shipping delays, and diminished causing many marketers A shift in Prime Day timing from July consumer behavior and lifecycle
disposable income for many to shift their messaging to mid-October was driving retailers of the pandemic:
Americans. strategies. During the to kick off an earlier-than-usual start
With store closures and restricted election period we observed to the season. Beginning in October WHO – consumer trends
shopping experiences, consumers a significant change in costs with Prime Day and extending to late impacting 2021 shopping season
turned online. Ecommerce spending and media efficiency, due to December, the shopping season was
jumped 32.5% to $185.88 billion increased competition and the longest in holiday history. WHERE – shopping channels
and drove large gains as online limited inventory, likely caused
Despite historic Cyber Monday and trends
shopping became the norm for by the increase in political
performance, Cyber Five
many consumers.1 advertising spend.
underperformed expectations, WHEN – dates to be aware of
The lines between stores and site Additionally, most of our decreasing overall share of holiday
blurred as contactless shipping and clients chose to pull back on season ecommerce sales for the first WHAT – anticipated top
other hybrid models (BOPIS, marketing spend during key time since 2016.1 product categories
Curbside Pickup) grew in popularity dates of 11/2-11/5.
and retailers tried to mimic in-store HOW – impact to pricing
experiences online (virtual try-on) and fulfillment
to best serve customers.
4
Who Consumer confidence hit CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX, FEBRUARY 2021-AUGUST 2021
Consumer Trends a 6-month low in August, 133
signaling that economic 129 129
Impacting 2021 Holiday
recovery has more headwinds
Shopping Season as we head into fall.
122 120
114
Though consumer confidence steadily 110
Marketers should start increased from May to July, a downturn in
planning by looking at the August suggests that the covid 19 climate,
consumer first. Understanding recently fueled by the delta variant,
key consumer and economic continues to evolve and impact consumer 90
trends can help us anticipate behavior. So far, no meaningful changes
what the shopping season to online shopping have been observed, Feb ‘20 Feb ‘21 Mar ‘21 Apr ‘21 May ‘21 Jun ‘21 Jul ‘21 Aug ‘21
might look like. but it will be vital to continue to monitor
changes this holiday season.
Unemployment has declined but is still
higher than pre-pandemic What should
Hovering around 6% since February 2021, unemployment
marketers do?
rate is still significantly higher than February 2020 at 3.5%.
Monitoring Back-to-School
shopping behavior will provide
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, FEBRUARY 2021-AUGUST 2021 insight about whether consumers
are ready to spend for Holiday.
6.2% 6.1%
6.0%
5.8% 5.9%
5.4% Continue to monitor
5.2% unemployement rates and
consumer confidence levels
throughout holiday planning
and shopping season.
3.5%
Feb ‘20 Feb ‘21 Mar ‘21 Apr ‘21 May ‘21 Jun ‘21 Jul ‘21 Aug ‘21
5
Ecommerce will continue to grow faster than
What should
Where
stores with a focus on mobile.
Ecomm sales will grow 11.3% Mobile conversions Target, Wal-Mart, and Best marketers do?
Shopping Channels compared to 2020 (and
compared to 0.9% for brick-
will continue to grow
generating 8.6% of
Buy are among a growing
list of retailers that will be
Allow for easy conversion and bring the
and Trends and-mortar) and represent total sales, ecommerce closed on Thanksgiving Day—
best of in-store to their online experiences
18.9% of total 2021 Holiday will account for 52.7% pushing shoppers online and
(and vice versa) will win.
spending (up from 17.4% of the season’s growth potentially setting the stage
Marketers should assume in 2020.)1 contribution.1 for the rest of the season.2 Understand what worked in ecommerce
digital trends from 2020 will and mobile last year, and what did not.
Where did consumers have friction with
continue as consumers won’t US RETAIL ECOMMERCE HOLIDAY SEASON SALES, 2016-2021 the shopping process?
entirely go back to “shopping billions, % change, and % of total holiday season retail sales*
as normal.” Consumers now $206.88
Invest in digital experience optimizations
and testing before holiday ramp up
expect a digitally connected $185.88 including local strategies like site to store.
experience from increasing
use of social commerce and Highlight convenience and build
$140.28 curbside, drive-thru, and in-store pickup
live streams for discovery and capabilities into messaging strategies.
$120.60
inspiration, to more immersive $108.70 Utilize personalized ads with preferred
digital shopping experiences, $93.53 shopping methods to reach audiences
32.5% likely to make a purchase using a specific
to expanded hybrid shopping
delivery method.
options like BOPIS (buy online 16.2% 16.3% 18.9%
14.3% 12.6%
pickup in store). Develop a mobile strategy with
17.5%
14.0% staying power by incentivizing mobile
10.4% 11.5% 11.0% 11.3%
transactions and encouraging app
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 downloads that enable seamless
Retail ecommerce holiday season sales % change % of total holiday retail sales
purchasing as the holiday progresses.
Stay relevant in digital channels with
an ‘always on’ approach to reach new
Lines will continue to be blurred between site and customers and capitalize on growth from
customers that shifted online in 2020.
store throughout the entire buying process.
Amplify digital spending and messaging
BOPIS (buy online pickup Social commerce and live Online shopping on Thanksgiving Day to set the tone of
in store) is here to stay. Last streams will play a larger role experiences will the shopping season.
year, BOPIS made up 25% in discovery and purchase than continue to become
of all holiday orders (an ever before. Nearly 8 in 10 more immersive as Reduce friction in the buying process
increase of 40% over 2019). consumers surveyed in 2020 customers will look where possible to encourage easy
In 2021, this proportion is used at least one Facebook to mimic in-store conversion in platform.
expected to maintain (or even app or service for discovery or experiences at home
grow) for shoppers seeking gift-giving inspiration during with how-to styling
convenience during the the holiday season. This trend is videos, virtual try on, *Note: Excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as
bill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking
holiday crunch.1 The peak day expected to continue in 2021.3 and personalized place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales; includes
for BOPIS usage in 2019 and Livestream events are also recommendations. products or services ordered using the internet, regardless
of the method of payment or fulfillment; retail ecommerce
2020 was December 23 (two driving more conversion—40%
sales are for Nov and Dec of each year.
days before Christmas).2 of Gen Z and Millennials Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
interviewed have purchased
something on a social media
live stream.4 6
When Cyber 5 will return to prominence representing ~20% of the
holiday season’s sales, and while shoppers will begin shopping early is not
anticipated to be the same elongated season of 2020.
What should
Dates to Be Aware Of marketers do?
Despite Prime Day’s return to summer months in 2021, a mix of pent-up
2020 introduced the longest consumer demand and concerns over supply chain shortages is predicted
The season will be long,
holiday shopping season to drive an early start to the season once again. Cyber Monday is predicted
but Cyber Five’s return will
to be the highest sales day of Cyber 5.
on record. Prime Day sales heighten the importance of
kicked-off in October, key shopping dates.
driving 48% of people US CYBER FIVE RETAIL ECOMMERCE HOLIDAY SEASON SALES,
surveyed to start holiday BY SHOPPING DAY, 2021 Begin testing now to ensure
billions and % change vs. prior year* you can incorporate key
shopping by mid-November.
learnings in your holiday
This year the season will still $13.14
(21.9%)
$10.96 strategy and be prepared to
be long, but Cyber 5 will (22.9%)
activate as early as October.
return to prominence.
$6.21 $5.59
$5.54
(23.7%)
(19.4%) (20.2%) Develop a plan for Cyber Five’s
return and avoid using 2020 as
a guidepost for performance
during key sales events.
Thanksgiv- Black Small Business Cyber Cyber
ing Day Friday Saturday Sunday Monday
Don’t assume consumers are
done shopping after Cyber Five.
Child tax credit payments are likely to drive Use messaging to stay top of
spikes in shopping mind through late December—
and don’t forget to highlight
35 million families have received the first of Payments deposited: fulfillment methods that can
six advance child tax credit payments from the July 15 ease the last-minute shopping
American Rescue Plan. Each month through August 13 crunch (remember, the peak
the end of 2021, qualifying families (HHI up September 15 BOPIS usage day has historically
to $150,000 for a two-parent household) will October 15 been December 23rd).
receive $250 or $300 per child, depending on November 15
the child’s age. December 15 Be nimble and prepared for the
potential of another October
Prime Day. Amazon could
Key Holiday 2021 dates surprise us again.
November 29: Cyber Five December 16: UPS Shipping Cut-Off *Note: Excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as
December 13: Giving Monday December 18: Super Saturday bill pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking
place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales; includes
December 15: FedEx and USPS December 25: Christmas Day products or services ordered using the internet, regardless
Shipping Cut-Off of the method of payment or fulfillment; retail ecommerce
sales are for Nov and Dec of each year.
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2021
7
What
Anticipated
Category Trends
Expect shopping
categories that have
had pent up demand for
purchases not made (or
able to happen) during
the pandemic in 2021
to surge with a focus on Expect spend on apparel, travel, events, What should
apparel, travel, events, and and experience will grow. marketers do?
experiences. This trend will
The increased consumer spends in services (travel and hospitality)
heighten competition as seen over the course of Q2 will carry into the holiday season as Flexibility will be key as consumer
consumers look to spend shoppers continue to transition out of the pandemic economy. trends shift in response to a
across a broad range of changing world.
categories. This spending shift will heighten competition during the holiday
season as retailers engage consumers looking to spend across a
Analyze your pandemic category
broader range of categories.
performance and compare with
latest trends to help anticipate
Apparel will rebound as pandemic-related holiday preferences. Keep a close
pulse on season-to-date results to
headwinds soften.
enable fast reaction to change.
Pent-up demand for upgraded wardrobes will drive a boom in
apparel and accessories across buying channels in 2021. Understand the customer profile
for your business and discuss
Back-to-school will be an indicator of how economic changes or post-
pandemic circumstances may
upcoming holiday performance and shift buying behavior.
consumer shopping behaviors.
Retailers looking to predict holiday performance in 2021 will use Develop scenarios that can
back-to-school results as a gauge for post-pandemic consumer mitigate risk for high, medium,
behavior against the backdrop of continued pandemic uncertainty. and low demand. Be prepared
to shift focus and react quickly
to inventory constraints and
unexpected results.
8
How Prices are rising compared
to last year as supply chain
Considerations for YOY % CHANGE IN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
SEPTEMBER 2020-AUGUST 2021
pressure continues and given
Pricing and Fulfillment observed lower prices in 2020.
6.0 All items
Apparel
4.0
Holiday prices this year will be In June, prices overall were 5.4% higher 2.0
much higher than they were than the previous year – the largest YOY 0.0
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
last year. This can be partially gain since 2008. -2.0 2020 2021
attributed to the fact that -4.0
Whether consumers will act differently
prices last year, especially for
because of these higher prices is unknown. -6.0
Apparel, were so low because Many might not notice because of their
of the pandemic. excitement to shop again, and others
may feel able to afford it after a year of
Many manufacturers have
unprecedented savings, stimulus checks,
had to increase prices due to and child tax credit payments. What should
supply chain shortages, which
will likely lead to a shortage in
marketers do?
toys, clothing, and footwear
this holiday. Brands will have to work
COVID outbreaks and extreme weather are reducing especially hard to exceed
expectations on higher-priced
the supply of many goods
goods and relentless planning
to ensure in stock inventory.
Heavy typhoon season in China As the more contagious Delta
has caused some of the world’s variant becomes more prevalent Proactive and ongoing
busiest container ports to reduce in the US, American manufacturing communication with inventory
operations, stranding shipping facilities could be impacted too. and operations teams to
containers. ensure advertising is featuring
Many manufacturers have had
in stock products.
Tropical cyclone season is to increase prices because these
expected to be more severe than supply chain pressures have Where possible, find
normal; the latest estimate is that impacted their costs so much. opportunities to win on price
four to six typhoons will make without abandoning margin.
landfall in China before the end Popular toys, clothing, and footwear
of 2021. could see significant shortages Ensure the shopping
during this holiday season. experience exceeds consumer
COVID outbreaks continue to expectations and is frictionless
require factory slowdowns (and to encourage seamless sales.
shutdowns in some cases) in
India and China.
9
So, what’s
1 2
a marketer
Maximize your enterprise return Align operations
to do? through a fluid investment strategy. and logistics
Have frequent budget and scenario conversations. Create up
with marketing.
and down scenarios including the following components: Know when and what inventory
Measurement: Develop a proactive measurement strategy is available, sync messaging
We’ve given you a lot in anticipation of trends that enables fast, nimble, and fluid and spend to your delivery
to consider, but don’t investment decisions across your marketing portfolio. strategy, consider ship cut-off
dates, and lean into stores with
panic. We have solutions. Digital Experience: Double down on digital experience to
BOPIS in metro areas.
ensure your digital, mobile and hybrid experiences exceed
Here are three key consumer expectations. Reach consumers where they are,
recommendations for measuring and accounting for cross-device behavior, improving
the shoppability of social ads, and adjusting search bidding
marketers to incorporate
in their holiday 2021 plans
based on evolving consumer intent. Optimize your mobile- 3
first digital experience, including considerations for site speed,
in consideration of the stability, and delivery. Expect the
broader macro, industry, Enterprise Support: Where you doubled down on digital-only unexpected.
last year with stores closed, ensure you have a strong plan for
and consumer trends. driving and measuring enterprise sales (online + store sales). Build a playbook of likely potential
outcomes, closely monitor key
Flighting: Plan to pull budgets forward and accelerate based
indicators, plan for each scenario,
on early performance. A dollar in October is as good as a dollar
and be prepared to adjust in the
in December.
moment as reality plays out.
Promotions: Leverage promotions thoughtfully to accelerate
business as you hit or miss forecasts. Don’t starve a hard- working
promotion due to time constrained budgets. Stay competitive on
Free Shipping. See our Marketer’s Guide to Media
Response Planning for more insight
Categories: Consider profitability and LTV in your product into preparing and executing
category investment approach. Emphasize products across the
during unexpected scenarios.6
site and through marketing that deliver a high marginal return for
the business and are in-stock.
VIEW THE GUIDE
Customer: Maximize impact from current customers and the
influx of new customers. Have a plan to grow and retain the influx
of new customers you may have seen in the last few months while
maximizing impact from current customers.
10We have outlined 3 potential situations that The holiday season
could play out during the 2020 holiday season. represents a significant
opportunity for marketers.
Situation Leading How to Actions to Take To win, marketers must
Indicators Prepare in the Moment maximize enterprise
return through a fluid
Economy • National If marketers see these • Pull back on spend
Goes South unemployment rates indicators, the best way • Revise annual goals investment strategy, align
• Credit card default to prepare is to spend as for your brand based operations and logistics
rates much as possible now on the new state of the
• Stock market above return and variable economy with marketing, and
contribution goals to get • Identify who is still expect the unexpected.
out ahead of a potential buying and cater the
depression. program to them
Inventory • Inventory levels vs. If marketers see unsold • Teams should shift
Breaks remaining revenue inventory stack up, they spend to products and
potential should know which creative identified in the
products to lean on and above analysis/tests
test what audiences and
creative treatments will
most effectively sell
that product.
Ineffective • Low click through To prepare for the potential • Pull dollars back
Promotions rates (CTR) of low CTR and CVR • Shift spend to time
• Low conversion rates compared with previous periods outside of the
(CVR) promotions, teams should promotion to elevate
continue to maintain variable contribution
alignment on variable of promotion dollars
contribution margins to • Based on this action,
drive as much volume as marketers should be
possible at full price. This comfortable with not
way, marketers will create hitting volume goals for
flexibility for moments of the given timeframe
low CTR and CVR.
11Ovative Group is a digital-first media and
measurement firm. We bring together
the best of media, measurement, and
consulting to enable an enterprise
approach to marketing that increases our
clients’ profitable revenue, strengthens
their customer base, and creates
sustainable competitive advantage.
OVATIVE.COM
Contact us to get
holiday ready!
Lindsay Westover
SOURCES
Senior Director Business
1 | Big name retailers update 2021 holiday strategies amid evolving shopping habits, eMarketer
2 | US Holiday 2020 Review and Holiday 2021 Preview, eMarketer
Development and Marketing
3 | 5 ecommerce trends for 2021, eMarketer
4 | How Can Brands and Retailers Prepare for the 2021 Holiday Season, AdWeek 612-816-8351
5 | Facebook Holiday Insights Narrative lindsay.westover@ovative.com
6 | Your Child Tax Credit Payment Just Arrived, WSJ linkedin.com/in/lindsaywestover
7 | Marketers Guide to Media Response Planning, Ovative GroupYou can also read
