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International Wind Power Developer Company Presentation May 2020
Important information
This presentation (the “Presentation”) has been prepared by NBT AS (“NBT AS” or the “Company” and together with its subsidiaries the "NBT Group“ or “NBT”). The Presentation has been
prepared and is delivered for information purposes only. It has not been reviewed or registered with, or approved by, any public authority, stock exchange or regulated market place.
The contents of the Presentation are not to be construed as financial, legal, business, investment, tax or other professional advice. Each recipient should consult with its own
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any of its subsidiaries, directors, employees or advisors assume any liability connected to the Presentation and/or the statements set out herein. This Presentation is not and does not
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The information included in this Presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of the NBT Group and/or the
industry in which it operates. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts, sometimes identified by the words
“believes”, “expects”, “predicts”, “intends”, “projects”, “plans”, “estimates”, “aims”, “foresees”, “anticipates”, “targets”, and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in
this Presentation, including assumptions, opinions and views of the Company or cited from third party sources are solely views and forecasts which are subject to risks, uncertainties and
other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development. None of the Company or any other company in the NBT Group, or any of its advisors or any
of their parent or subsidiary undertakings or any such person’s affiliates, officers or employees provides any assurance that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are
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This Presentation does not constitute any solicitation for any offer to purchase or subscribe any securities and is not an offer or invitation to sell or issue securities for sale in any jurisdiction,
including the United States. Distribution of the Presentation in or into any jurisdiction where such distribution may be unlawful, is prohibited. The Company and its advisors require persons
in possession of this Presentation to inform themselves about, and to observe, any such restrictions.
This Presentation speaks as of the date set out on the front page, and there may have been changes in matters which affect the NBT Group subsequent to the date of this Presentation.
Neither the issue nor delivery of this Presentation shall under any circumstance create any implication that the information contained herein is correct as of any time subsequent to the date
hereof or that the affairs of the NBT Group have not since changed, and the Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update or correct any information included in
this Presentation.
This Presentation is subject to Norwegian law, and any dispute arising in respect of this Presentation is subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Norwegian courts with Oslo City Court as
exclusive venue.
By receiving this Presentation, you accept to be bound by the terms above.
2
Investment highlights
Number of value triggers positioning company for future monetization
ATTRACTIVE • 150MW producing ~357 GWh/year in China
PORTFOLIO OF
• Syvash 245.7MW under construction expected on line in Q3/Q4 2020
>1,000MW OF
WIND FARMS • Zophia I-III 792.5MW under development, COD expected in phases in Q1/Q3/Q4 2022
UKRAINE IS A • Following turmoil in 2014-2016, Ukraine has de-risked significantly, evidenced by sovereign yields approaching 5%
BOOMING
RENEWABLES • An energy sector heavily dependent on nuclear and coal: strategic goal for government is to shift electricity production into
renewables and reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels
MARKET
PROVEN • NBT developed Syvash in less than 9 months from project acquisition to initial financial close
• Total Eren is 53.5% equity partner; €262m senior debt by EBRD, FMO, Proparco, IFU, Green for Growth Fund,
DEVELOPMENT
Finnfund, NEFCO and Black Sea Trade and Development Bank
CAPABILITIES &
BLUECHIP • 150MW developed in China, with AEI Energy and Datang Renewables as partners
PARTNERS • Achieved first project financing for a wind farm in China, provided by HSBC and Bank of Communications
• Syvash: 245.7MW, ~€80m+ EBITDA/yr, tariffs locked in at €92/€102 per MW until year-end 2029, fixed WMSA for 15+5 years
ATTRACTIVE &
• Zophia I-III: ~792.5MW, tariffs expected at €84 per MW until year-end 2029
PREDICTABLE • Senior financing covering 50% of capex expected from ICBC, China Exim Bank, China Construction Bank
ECONOMICS • Currently awaiting key clarifications from regulatory authorities in Ukraine and working with financial advisors to secure
remaining financing. Discussions with both strategic and financial investors proceeding constructively albeit somewhat
delayed due to Covid-19 situation
3
This is NBT
Introduction UKRAINE - CORE
Independent wind power developer with attractive and advanced portfolio under
development with strong cash flow potential
Established in 2004, incorporated in Norway
150MW built to date, 245.7MW under construction and 792.5MW in advanced
development
246MW under construction
793MW under development
Attractive tariffs and high margins
Bluechip partners and financing providers (Total Eren, EBRD, PowerChina & State Grid
Corporation of China)
OTHER ASSETS
Attractive Ukrainian green tariffs of €84/€90/€102 per MW, capacity factors from 41-44%
and long-term, fixed costs WMSAs bring EBITDA margins above 90%
150MW producing ~357
GWh/year
Foundation for NBT’s development
capabilities
4
Well defined milestones to a future IPO
IPO targeted in 2021/2022 when current development pipeline is de-risked
€m
300 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e
Key events:
• Zophia I COD Q1
Project
250 EBITDA1)
• Zophia II/IIICOD Q3/Q4
Key events:
• New development projects being
firmed up
• First full year of production from
200 Key events: Syvash
• Initial Syvash WTGs on line • Good visibility on construction
• Closing of equity financing of progress from Zophia
Zophia projects
150 • Expected refinancing of secured • New development projects being
bond firmed up
• Syvash COD
• Closing of senior financing of
Zophia projects
100 • Commencement of construction of Dividend capacity
Zophia
• Expected refinancing of convertible
bond and Zophia development
bond
50
0
2020 2021 2022 2023
Note 1) Project EBITDA contribution, 100% for Zophia and 46.5% from Syvash
5
Strong core team
JOAR VIKEN
CEO
ERLING THIIS THORSTEIN JENSSEN EUGENE GELLER MARTIN ROSELL KYRRE LUND VLAD KAZAK
CFO SVP DEVELOPMENT & PROJECT INVESTMENT DIRECTOR GENERAL COUNSEL SVP BUSINESS DEV CEO Zophia
FINANCE
WALTER CHANG LARS JOHNSEN BØRGE TVORG EYAL BARAZANI MAGNUS JOHANSEN LUO BIN
CEO ASIA OPERATIONS PROJECT FINANCE DIRECTOR VP PROJECT FINANCE SENIOR BUSINESS VP BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT PRESIDENT CHINA
DEVELOPMENT OPERATIONS
KEY CAPABILITIES PROJECT SOURCING FINANCE ENGINEERING
UKRAINE PROJECT
KNOWLEDGE DEVELOPMENT CONSTRUCTION OPERATIONS
6
Proven development capabilities
Due Diligence SPA Signed ESIA Syndication Finance Documents
Start: May 2017 February 2018 Start: April 2018 Start: August 2018 Start: October 2018
3 Months 3 Months + 3 months
4 Months
5 Months
3 Months
SPA negotiations SPA Closing EBRD on board Financial Close
Start: September 2017 April 2018 July 2018 January 2019 and April 2019
7
Overview of key assets
Key milestones Project details
Q4 2019 … Q2 2020 Q3 2020 … Q1 2021 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 … 2029 PARTNERS ECONOMIC PARAMETERS
• Co-investor: • Tariff: €102/92/MWh
245.7 MW
Feed-in tariff ends • Lead lender: • P50 load factor: ~41%
expected on line
SYVASH Construction Production of electricity • Total investment: € 382m
246MW • EPC:
46.5% INTEREST 133MW • Annual revenues: € 83m
expected on line • Turbines:
• Target EBITDA%: ~90%1)
• Lead lenders: • Tariff: 84€/MWh
Feed-in tariff ends • P50 load factor: 40.3%
ZOPHIA I-III • EPC: • Total investment: ~€ 1.2bn
792.5 MW Permits Financing Construction Prod.
793 MW online by • Annual revenues: € 231m
100% INTEREST Permits in place Financial close Q1/Q3/Q4 2022 • Turbines:
completed for all • Target EBITDA%: ~90%2)
phases
• Co-investors: • Tariff: RMB 0.54-0.61/kWh
OTHER: • Annual prod: ~300 GWh
Gantt LLC
LINXI & • Lenders:
In operation since 2010 • Total investment: RMB 1.48bn
BAICHENG
150 MW • Turbines: • Annual revenue: RMB 161m
33-49% INTEREST
• Annual EBITDA generation: ~81%
Note: 1) Estimated EBITDA margin in P50 wind case 2) Target of similar economics as the Syvash project
8Syvash 245.7MW expected on line Q2/Q3 2020
Key project details Location
CAPACITY • 245.7MW
LOCATION • Northern shore of Lake Syvash, Kherson Region
• 13+ months wind data from 80m tower onsite has been collected so far,
WIND DATA two new 120m towers and Lidar continually collecting additional wind data
with another 9 months so far
WIND SPEED • 7.9m/s at 120m (estimated)
TARIFF • € 0.102 / € 0.0918/kWh for wind turbines erected in 2019 / 2020 Syvash
CAPACITY FACTOR • Approximately 41.7%
PERMITS • All secured
• Secured, 35kV to 330kV substation under construction with 2 x 330kV
GRID CONNECTION 20 km
transmission lines nearby
CO2 ELIMINATION • 635,000 tons
• Flat terrain, degraded farm land
Key partners
SITE CONDITION
• Spans 1,320 hectares, 49-years land lease
Senior lenders Equity partner
• Turn key EPC contract of €288.3m with PowerChina
EPC
• Wind turbines (3.9MW) and 15+5 years WMSA from Nordex
• 15+5 year WMSA
OPEX • Coverage for €200m, 3 years, non-callable war and terrorism insurance
• In total around €6m per year, inflated
• €262m senior debt lead by EBRD + other DFIs
• €79m co-investment (preferred equity) from Total Eren convertible into EPC contractor Turbine manufacturer
FINANCING
53.5% of equity
• €34m contributed from NBT AS
CONSTRUCTION
• Under construction with first wind turbine erected in November 2019
STATUS
COD • Phased COD in Q3 / Q4 2020
9Syvash project finance structure
NBT AS
Ownership organized through Swedish holding
100% companies
– Tax effective ownership, tax-free dividends can be
brought to NBT
EAST RENEWABLE AB
Total Eren has co-invested EUR 79m in a
Swedish holding company
€35m 46.5%
53.5%1)
EAST RENEWABLE The senior lenders, led by EBRD, sit in the
EUR 79m
UKRAINE AB Ukraine entity
100%
EAST RENEWABLE
ENERGY AB
100%
SYVASHENERGOPROM EUR 263m senior debt
LLC EBRD & 7 other banks
Note: 1) Structured as preference share, convertible into 53.5% ordinary shares in 2022. Post second completion each ordinary and preferred share will carry one vote in the company
10Zophia 792.5MW developed in multi-stage approach
Key project details Location
CAPACITY • 792.5MW (Zophia I, II & III)
LOCATION • Yakymovskij District of Zaporizhia Region
• 25+ months of wind data from a 120m met tower onsite has been collected
WIND DATA so far, with additional 4 new 120m met towers collecting data since early
2020
Zophia I - III
WIND SPEED • 8.01m/s at 120m
TARIFF • Expected to EUR 0.0836/kWh
CAPACITY FACTOR • Approximately 42%
BUILDING PERMIT • Secured for 792.5 MW
GRID CONNECTION • Secured 20 km
CO2 ELIMINATION • 2,050,000 tons
• Located about 15km southwest of the major city of Melitopol
SITE CONDITION
• Stretches for 42km from north to south and 23km from east to west Key partners
• Relatively flat; the elevations of the expected wind turbine area range from
approximately 5m to 30m above sea level Senior lenders
• EPC contracts for 750MW signed with CET, the EPC subsidiary of State
Grid Corporation of China
EPC • Covers all turbine supply, civil works, electrical works, substations, required
grid connections to the interconnection points, new overhead line and grid
capacity upgrades
EPC contractor Turbine manufacturer
• Zophia I: €40m being secured from Ukrgasbank
• Zophia II-III: €500m expected from ICBC, China Exim Bank, China
FINANCING Construction Bank
• Additional €330m to be secured through additional syndicate banks
• Financial close expected Q3 2020 for Zophia II and III
• Zophia I – Q1 2022 / Phased COD Zophia II – Q3/Q4 2022 / Phased COD
COD
Zophia III – Q3/Q4 2022
11Zophia investment structure
NBT AS
100% Each Swedish holdco will be
owned by another layer of
EAST RENEWABLE Swedish companies
TOPCO AB
This will be the joint venture
100% companies where co-investors
enter
EAST RENEWABLE
ZOPHIA SUPER HOLDCO This layer will be owned by a
AB common holding company which
100% 100% 100% will be owned indirectly by NBT
EAST RENEWABLE EAST RENEWABLE EAST RENEWABLE
ZOPHIA INVESTMENTS I ZOPHIA INVESTMENTS II ZOPHIA INVESTMENTS III
AB AB AB
100% 100% 100%
EAST RENEWABLE EAST RENEWABLE EAST RENEWABLE
ZOPHIA I AB ZOPHIA II AB ZOPHIA III AB
100% 100% 100%
AZOVINVESTPROM LLC AZOVPROMENERGO LLC ZOPHIA III LLC
42.5MW 300MW 450MW
UKRGASBANK
Senior
(Project loan with share CHINESE AND INTERNATIONAL BANKS
funding
security post COD)
12Other assets
China Other opportunities
Assets located in Inner Mongolia and Jilin, China
Developed when NBT was first started
Instrumental for the organizational development and
becoming an experienced emerging market developer
Linxi
Size: 100 MW
Interest: 49%
Partner: Datang Renewables
Annual Revenues*: ~RMB 101m (€13m)
Annual EBITDA*: ~RMB 79m (€10m)
Baicheng
Global Cooperation Agreement with CET / State Grid
Size: 50 MW Corporation of China to develop new renewable projects
Interest: 33%
Currently evaluating selected projects in Serbia, Greece,
Partner: initially AEI Energy, now Gantt
LLC
Georgia, Uzbekistan and Montenegro
Annual Revenues*: ~RMB 51m (€7m)
Annual EBITDA*: ~RMB 20m (€3m)
* Annual Revenues and EBITDA are based on 100% ownership basis.
13A highly advanced pipeline – not including additional potential
opportunities with COD beyond 2025
Unrisked portfolio of c. 3 GW wind capacity Net quarterly annualized electricity generation
Gross Net Risked
Country Project Status1) MW Share MW Risk MW LF% Unrisked
China Baicheng In operation 49 33% 16 100% 16 25% Net GWh 11 642 11 642
Linxi I In operation 50 49% 25 100% 25 30% 10 968 11 975
12 000 10 130 Country 5
Linxi II In operation 50 49% 25 100% 25 30% 9 663
Firm
10 000 8 799 Country 4
Ukraine Syvash Construction 246 47% 114 100% 114 41% 7 791
Country 3
Zophia I Fully permitted 43 100% 43 100% 43 41% 7 791
8 000
Country 2
Zophia II Fully permitted 300 100% 300 100% 300 41% 5 943
6 000 5 604
Zophia III Fully permitted 450 100% 450 100% 450 41%
4 255
Country 1 Project 1 In DD 168 100% 168 75% 126 37% Country 1
4 000 3 421
Project 2 In DD 93 100% 93 75% 70 37%
1 805 Ukraine
2 000 575 575
Project 3 In DD 140 100% 140 75% 105 37% 164
575 575 575 575 727 China
164 164
Project 4 In DD 120 100% 120 75% 90 37% 0
In DD 75 100% 75 75% 56 36% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Country 2 Project 5
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Project 6 In DD 100 100% 100 75% 75 36%
Project 7 In DD 23 100% 23 75% 17 36% Risked
Net GWh
Project 8 In DD 85 100% 85 75% 64 36%
8 045 8 233
9 000
Pipeline
Project 9 In DD 18 100% 18 75% 14 36% 7 195 8 045 Country 5
8 000 6 932 7 667
Project 10 In DD 7 100% 7 75% 5 36% 6 446 Country 4
7 000 Assumption that 5 879
Project 11 Opportunity 591 60% 355 75% 266 36% Country 3
75% of new 5 879
Project 12 Opportunity 240 60% 144 75% 108 36% 6 000 4 840
pipeline projects Country 2
5 000 4 649
Project 13 Opportunity 185 60% 111 75% 83 36% are realisable 3 890
Project 14 Opportunity 267 60% 160 75% 120 36% 4 000 3 421 Country 1
Project 15 Opportunity 132 60% 79 75% 59 36% 3 000
1 805
Country 3 Project 16 In DD 50 100% 50 75% 38 40% 2 000 Ukraine
575 575
1 000 164 575 575 575 575 727
Project 17 In DD 50 100% 50 75% 38 40% 164 164 China
Country 4 Opportunity 200 100% 200 75% 150 37% 0
Project 18 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Country 5 Project 19 Opportunity 50 50% 25 75% 19 37% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total 3,781 2,975 2,474
Source: NBT AS
Note: 1) NBT has secured exclusivity and is performing a due diligence with a view to acquire the project. Opportunity: NBT is negotiating with owner to with a view to enter into a due diligence process 14Ukraine has a pro-west government undertaking structural
reforms to facilitate future growth of its economy
Ukraine economy overview International reserves
Political climate Months of
– Denis Shmygal elected as the new PM in early March 2020 3.0x 3.0x 3.2x 3.3x 4.7x 4.5x 4.6x 4.0x 4.3x
imports
– The conflict in eastern Ukraine, more strained relations with Russia and the Coronavirus
pandemic continue to hurt the economy USDbn
– Reforms have been adopted to promote household consumption, the consolidation of public
finances and prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and a flexible exchange rate regime have 30.0 27.3 27.2
25.3 24.9 24.6
helped to reduce budget and current account deficits 25.0
Economic environment 20.8
20.0 18.8
– According to the IMF, GDP grew at 3.2% in 2019, slightly down from 2018 (3.3%), however
15.5
due to the COVID-19 outbreak, GDP growth is forecast to fall to -7.7% in 2020 and pick up to 15.0 13.3
3.6% in 2021, subject to the post-pandemic global economic recovery
– Interest rates on the interbank market and yields on hryvnia domestic government securities 10.0
have been gradually declining
5.0
– International reserves increased to USD 27bn, and now cover four months of future imports
– Consumer inflation down from 3.2% yoy in Jan to 2.4% in Feb, expected to decline further 0.0
– The NBU has moved to ease monetary policy due to inflationary pressure and has cut the key 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 2020E
policy rate by 100 bps – to 10.0% in March
CPI change and key policy rate FX dynamics State and state-guaranteed debt
CPI Key policy rate 79.1 80.9 71.8 60.9 50.3
USD/UAH UAH/USD as of
Average Inflation Target inflation 01 May’20: 26.92 -9.8 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.2 -7.71)
25.0 1.0 USDbn
22.5 30 100
20.0 18.0% 0.8 84 80
28 76 78
17.5 80 71 10 10
14.0% 14.5% 66 11 11
15.0 13.5% 0.6 10
26 60 10
12.5 13.9% 14.4% 10.9%
8.0%
10.0 7.9% 0.4 24 40 74
65 67 71
7.5 10.3% 56 61
4.5% 22 20
5.0 0.2
2.5 5.0% 20 0
0.0 0.0 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 1/1/2019 1/1/2020 1/1/2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar’20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E State-guaranteed debt GDP growth % (real)
Ukrainian hryvnia was the best performing
foreign currency versus the US dollar in 2019 State debt Total debt (% of GDP)
Source: Ukrainian Ministry of Finance – Ukraine Investor Presentation June 2019, IMG World Economic Outlook (April 2019), Bloomberg, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
1) 2020E
15Improving national credit profile translates to narrowing
spreads
Ukraine credit overview Ukraine credit profile
Commitment to further reforms, macro support programs from IMF, EU, US and IFIs Long term credit ratings (April 2020)
and sound macro performance in 2019, has boosted international investors’ interest in
Ukrainian sovereign debt
Caa1 B B
– In Dec 2019, signed a 3-year agreement with IMF for a new USD 5.5bn extended credit
facility to boost the country's growth and economic reforms (Positive) (Stable) (Stable)
In January 2020, the Ukrainian Government went back on the market with a EUR
1.25bn 10 year Eurobond which was supported by 5.6x oversubscription leading to
reduction of factual yield at issuance of 62.5 bps from the IPT
– The total indications of interest peaked in excess of EUR 7bn from 350+ investors globally
Ukraine Sovereign Yield Evolution Secondary Sovereign Curve Evolution
The yield of the sovereign Eurobond is up by almost 350bps since issuance and is as Yield % 1 May ’19 1 Jan ’20
Yield % UK 2024 UK 2030
of April 30 trading at a yield of 7.85% p.a. 030 Oct ’19 30 Apr ’20
14.0 UK 2026 16
The backward-looking approach of rating agencies, which accounts for the 2014 and
15
2015 crisis years, does not capture the noticeable credit profile improvements of 13.0
Ukraine in 2019 14
12.0
Both initial demand of the Eurobond and current secondary trading yield assert our 13
expectations on the soonest credit rating upgrade shifting Ukraine to BB universe 11.0 12
11
10.0
The Ukraine government bond January 2020 10
9.0
9
Issue amount: EUR 1.25bn
8.0 8
Order book at final yield: > EUR 4.75bn
7.848% 7.0 7
6
5.000% 4.750% 4.5%(+/-0.125) 4.375% 6.0
5
5.0
4
4.0 3
IPT Guidance FPG Final pricing Current trading 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y
4/1/2019 7/1/2019 10/1/2019 1/1/2020 4/1/2020
(30 April 2020)
Source: Bloomberg as of 01 May 2020
16Contact Information
For more information, please contact:
Mr. Joar Viken
CEO
Mobile: +47 916 19785
Email: joar.viken@nbtas.no
17NBT AS Company presentation May 2020
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