Investment Outlook 2018 Personal Financial Services
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Investment Outlook 2018 Personal Financial Services
UOB Investment Outlook 2018 Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished. —Lao Tze
Contents
45
Editorial 06
Our Macro Outlook 08
Our Roadmap
Macro Outlook
Risk and 2018 Key Events 16
Key Risks and Calendar
Key Events Around the World
Investment Flow Trends 22
and Asset Classes
Themes and Ideas
Asset Class Focus
Fixed Income
Equities
Foreign Exchange
Country Focus 36
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
China
Editorial Team Regional
Chung Shaw Bee Calvin Nico Herlambang
Contributors
Singapore and CFA
Regional Head, Singapore and Leong Wei Ji
Deposits and Regional Head, Malaysia
Wealth Management Investment Strategy
and Communications Kitiwat Nanthawatsiri
Joyce Lim Thailand
CFA, CAIA, CFP Grace Qu
Regional Head, CFA Erricky Soh
Funds and Advisory Investment Strategist Indonesia
Abel Lim Nicole Tsai Lily Huang
Singapore Head, Investment China
Wealth Management Research Associate
AdvisoryEditorial
Editorial 06
We entered 2017 hoping for strength Earth, an important medium of growth,
in the investment world after exiting is associated with the macro backdrop
a very bumpy and challenging 2016 for investments. Despite diverging
fraught with fears that China’s economy monetary policies across central banks,
could be headed for a hard landing, we see growth in developed markets
and uncertainties surrounding Brexit to continue albeit moderating, while
and the US presidential election. growth in emerging markets likely
to accelerate in 2018 led by continued
Hence the theme 山重水复疑无路， structural reforms and a recovery
柳暗花明又一村。(After endless in exports.
mountains and rivers that leave doubt
whether there is a path out, suddenly Metal, like earth’s minerals, is akin
one encounters the shade of a willow, to the fundamentals that support the
bright flowers and a lovely village.) macro backdrop. We expect inflation
to remain benign, and consumer and
Our strategy in 2017 was to focus business sentiments to improve, thus
on equities, and here we identified providing the catalysts for higher capital
opportunities in Asia ex-Japan, Europe, expenditures that would fuel economic
the healthcare sector and global quality growth further.
stocks. For fixed income, the focus
was on short-duration high-yield bonds. Fire, which can be associated with
danger, is like investment risk. However,
Not only 2017 did not disappoint, proper handling allows us to mitigate
the year surprised investors on multiple this risk. An understanding of key events
fronts: S&P500 +20.4%*, Euro Stoxx that may impact one’s investments
600 +10.4%*, MSCI Asia ex-Japan allows investors to position their
+38.3%*, Barclays global-aggregate portfolio well without taking excessive
bonds +7.0%* and Global High Yield risks. There could be continued
bonds +9.9%*. Investors who have headwinds from central banks’ policies,
invested and remained invested would as well as geopolitical events in 2018.
have reaped the benefits of the buoyant
global markets. Different types of wood grow differently
under the same conditions. Some may
Entering 2018 flourish while some may not. Hence, we
As we deliberated the investment associate wood with opportunities from
themes for 2018 after an exuberant different asset classes. It is important
2017, we took inspiration from to know the potential returns of each
nature and the parallels between asset class in the given environment.
the interactions of the five natural Equities remain our preferred asset
elements—Earth, Metal, Fire, Wood, class even though returns are expected
Water—and our investment strategies. to moderate compared to 2017.
*As of end November 2017Investment Outlook 2018 07
Finally, water. Water takes the shape At UOB we remain right by you, taking
of the vessel that holds it and naturally a risk-first approach when tailoring
flows from higher level to lower level. investment advice and solutions for you.
Similarly, investor sentiments and fund Thank you for your business and trust
flows that are more fluid in nature will in us all these years. We hope you enjoy
flow out from investments with higher our tongue-in-cheek analogy of our 2018
valuations to those at more attractive outlook as much as we enjoyed putting
levels. Investors can consider rotating it together for you.
out of US equities, where valuations
are higher, into Europe, Japan or Chung Shaw Bee
emerging markets. Personal Financial Services
Singapore and Regional Head,
We believe 2018 is the year to be more Deposits and Wealth Management
selective in our investment strategy.08 Earth and Metal A tower of nine storeys begins with a heap of earth. —Lao Tze
09 Our Macro Outlook Identifying the fundamental drivers and understanding the macro environment are essential. This knowledge helps us ground our investment views and forms the basis of our strategies.
Our Macro Outlook 10
Our
Resilient so far
The economy took recent
hikes in its stride. At the
Roadmap
same time, diminishing
output gaps and heightened
asset valuations are causing
The macro environment concern among central banks.
will shift in 2018. Conditions
could be more challenging Monetary Policy
Central banks are moving
than before and the winners away from QE, with the
are unlikely to be the same. Fed leading the way.
Further reduction
in output gap
Economy Rising sentiments
Synchronised growth Robust growth is prompting
expected to continue a rise in both consumer
and broaden. Political and business sentiments,
headwinds dissipated particularly in DM.
in DM while EM reforms
are coming to fruition.
Markets
A strong rally in
markets have created
richer valuations
across bond and
equity markets.
Risk assets surge
Investors, confident in the
durability of the cycle, reach
for higher returns. Valuation
concerns become prevalent.Investment Outlook 2018 11
Continued tightening
Central banks are likely to
continue tightening, especially
when inflation comes through.
Inflationary pressure
Demand support for
commodities prices
Continued growth
Improving sentiments
are precursors for higher
Rotation
spending and investments, A reflationary
which are important environment is likely
for sustaining growth. to benefit equities
over bonds while rich
valuations are likely
to drive a rotation
between countries
and sectors.
Refocus on laggards
Cheaper laggards, some
of which actually have
good fundamentals, finally
appear on investors’ radars.Macro Outlook
Our Macro Outlook 12
for 2018
Growth: another
good year
Key takeaways Synchronicity and low dispersion consumption, higher corporate
Global growth is likely to remain of growth were the hallmarks of CapEx and stimulating fiscal policies.
resilient in 2018. In DM, growth 2017. Not only did overall economic
is expected to remain positive expansion accelerate, both developed Job markets remain relatively tight,
though momentum may moderate. markets (DM) and emerging markets as unemployment rates in the US,
In EM, growth could accelerate (EM) registered higher growth for Europe and Japan fell to post-crisis
as structural reforms in key the first time since 2010. Improved lows. With consumer confidence and
economies bear fruit. consumer and corporate confidence household incomes increasing at a
in DM helped spur domestic healthy pace, domestic consumption
Monetary policy is likely to consumption and private investments. is expected to stay robust and form
tighten especially if inflation Meanwhile, a resurgence in global the support for continued DM growth.
picks up. However, central trade and stability in China provided Corporate CapEx has been subdued
banks are expected to act a constructive backdrop for EM until recently. Higher profit margins
gradually and therefore sudden equities and bonds to outperform and improved business prospects
spikes in yields are unlikely. the broader market. resulted in bigger CapEx investment
to increase production capacity and
Market valuations have become Heading into 2018, our outlook for drive productivity. Fiscal policies
rich. While economic fundamentals global growth remains optimistic such as the US tax reform can further
have been improving, fledging and the global economy is expected support growth in the US economy.
signs of exuberance in certain to remain resilient. (Figure 01) In Europe, improving current accounts
regions and sectors are starting are providing governments with room
to appear. DM growth remain positive for higher fiscal spending. Finally, in
but could moderate Japan, Prime Minister Abe’s victory
Our strategy for 2018 centres In DM, growth is expected to hold in snap elections is breathing life
around the idea of rotation. up, underpinned by robust domestic back into Abenomics and anchors
We favour investments that benefit
from a reflationary environment
Figure 01—Outlook for global growth Emerging Economies
and those that have lagged against
remains positive for 2018. EM are likely World Economy
the broader market but possess
to lead growth. Developed Economies
strong fundamentals.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2017, Bloomberg, 22 October 2017Investment Outlook 2018 13
expectations that easy monetary to steer away from an accommodative
and fiscal conditions are likely to stay. stance. Leading the pack is the Federal
While the growth outlook of DMs Reserve (Fed), which began its Balance
remains positive in 2018, the momentum Sheet Reduction (BSR) operations in
may not be as strong compared to 2017. October 2017 and is projected to hike
Cyclical economic indicators, such as interest rates in December 2017 for the
the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) third time since the crisis. The European
are registering elevated levels and are Central Bank (ECB), although lagging
setting a ceiling for upside surprises. the Fed in terms of policy normalisation,
has announced its schedule for tapering
Structural reforms its quantitative easing (QE) program in
bearing fruit in EM 2018. Though the Bank of Japan (BOJ)
On the other hand, EM growth remains committed to accommodation,
rates are forecast to outpace growth its ownership of more than 40% of the
in DM and further accelerate in 2018. local bond market could limit the scope
The improvements are likely to be for continued purchases. (Figure 02)
driven primarily by structural reforms
in key economies such as China, Subdued inflation,
India and Brazil. but trending higher
Inflation, or the lack thereof,
China is expected to continue the has restrained central banks from
gradual and controlled process of pursuing an aggressive tightening
rebalancing its economy. With President policy. Although unemployment
Xi increasing his influence during the has been trending lower, inflation
recent 19th Party Congress, the policy continues to remain subdued. This
direction for China is likely to remain is particularly so for the US, where
unchanged while the pace of reform unemployment is low, at 4.1%, while
is likely to strengthen. India’s economic inflation remains benign at 2%.
growth is projected to improve
significantly from 6.7% in 2017 to Though mild, inflation has been
7.4% in 2018, according to projections picking up and broadening across
by the International Monetary Fund regions. In DMs, inflation is expected
(IMF). In 2017, the Indian economy to rise from 1.5% in 2017 to 1.9%
was affected by demonetisation and in 2018. Meanwhile, inflation in EMs
uncertainty related to the introduction is projected to remain roughly stable
of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). at 4.2% in 2017 and 4.4% in 2018.
However, GST is helping to unify Stronger economic activities and
India’s vast domestic market and commodity prices can eventually
set the grounds for stronger growth drive higher inflationary pressure.
in 2018. Brazil is also expected to
see higher growth in 2018 due to the Markets underpricing
implementation of key reforms to drive rate outlook
fiscal sustainability and a gradual Markets are currently pricing in low
restoration of confidence among expectations for rate hikes, in particular
consumers and business spending. the path of rate hikes from the Fed.
Although the Fed undershot its own
Central banks: projections in the past, the economy
readier than ever has been on firmer footing and recent
A synchronised pickup in the global communications seem to suggest a
economy prompted key central banks lower dependency towards rate hikeOur Macro Outlook 14
Figure 02—A slow move towards the exit from QE
ECB
Fed Milestones BOJ
2008 2015 Start of 2011
QE
2010 2016 Expansion 2013
of QE
2013 2017 Taper ?
talks
2014 2018 Tapering ?
2015 ? 1st rate ?
hike
2016 2nd rate ?
?
hike
2017 ? 3rd rate ?
hike & BSR
Source: UOB Investment Strategy, 22 October 2017Investment Outlook 2018 15
decisions on inflation data. Should providing the perfect environment for
inflation show sustained growth, the both equities and fixed income markets
Fed would have a stronger mandate to perform. Strong investor sentiments
to continue its tightening. Subsequent further drove markets higher, causing
re-pricing of expectations by markets valuations to soar.
is likely to cause yields to drift.
Expensive equities,
Higher interest rates over time expensive bonds
While we have explained the reason As of end November 2017, the
for higher interest rates in 2018, the total return for US equity markets
pace of this increase, and by extension was 20.5%, outperforming other
a growth in yields, is likely to remain DMs such as Europe and the UK.
gradual. Barring an inflation overshoot, As a result, valuations in US equities
the Fed is expected to remain cautious, appeared to be stretched. In the
hiking rates slowly and conducting fixed income markets, spreads
Balance Sheet Reduction (BSR) continued to tighten on expectations
according to the announced schedule. of positive growth and dovish central
The same should hold for European bank policies.
Central Bank (ECB) when it tapers its
QE program over the course of 2018. While economic fundamentals have
Based on projections from Bloomberg, improved over the course of 2017
net purchases from key central banks and earnings have been strong, there
should remain positive in 2018, thereby are some fledging signs of exuberance.
reducing odds of market shocks and According to surveys, a record-high
sharp spikes in yields. percentage of investors see equities
as overvalued yet cash levels are
simultaneously falling. Meanwhile,
Markets: high high yield spreads globally are hovering
valuations to at post-crisis lows, around the same
continue climbing levels as late-2005.
Although 2017 started on a tepid note,
initial headwinds, mainly political, soon
faded. Growth accelerated while key
central banks remained relatively dovish,
2018 strategy: Rotation
Entering 2018, our key strategy is built around the idea
of rotation. With reflation in the global economy picking up,
equities are likely to be favored over fixed income. Heightened
valuations in the US markets could drive a switch into ex-US
markets which are earlier in the economic cycle and have
improving fundamentals. A lot of the focus this year has been
on the technology sector. Going forward, we expect other
cyclical sectors, such as financials, which could benefit from
a reflationary environment to receive more attention.16 Fire The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long. —Lao Tze
17 Key Events and Risks for 2018 Anticipating key events as well as identifying potential sources of risk are paramount to strategic investment positioning.
Key Events and Risks for 2018 18
January
Key Events
1st Quarter
22—23 Jan
BOJ Meeting
Calendar 30—31 Jan
FOMC Meeting
Knowing the timeline of events for 2018
25 Jan
helps guide our positioning through the ECB Meeting
year. Attention in the first half of the year
is likely to be focused on central bank ECB scheduled to reduce monthly
decisions. Political events, however, are asset purchases
spread throughout the year and dates Starting from January, the ECB is
scheduled to reduce its monthly asset
remain fluid. purchases from EUR 60 billion to EUR
30 billion. The asset purchase program
will end in September 2018. Decisions
regarding future monetary actions are
likely to be data dependent.
April May June
2nd Quarter
26 Apr 1—2 May 12—13 Jun
ECB Meeting FOMC Meeting FOMC Meeting
26—27 Apr 20 May 14 Jun
BOJ Meeting Deadline for Italy General Election ECB Meeting
End of term for BOJ Governor The populist party, Five Star Movement
Kuroda (M5S), has been running neck-and-neck 14—15 Jun
with the ruling party. However, the populist BOJ Meeting
TBC stance of M5S has recently moderated.
IMF World Economy Outlook
October
4th Quarter
Central Banks 15 Oct
ECB Meeting
Political Events
18 Oct
Economic Events Brazil General ElectionInvestment Outlook 2018 19
February March
3 Feb 8 Mar 18 Mar
New Fed chair ECB Meeting Russia Presidential Elections
Powell is expected to be the
new Fed Chair after Yellen’s term 8—9 Mar 20—21 Mar
expires in February 2018. Powell’s BOJ Meeting FOMC Meeting
appointment likely means continuity
to the Fed’s policies. The Fed is 3—15 Mar
projected to hike rates three times China National People’s Congress
in 2018. and Chinese People’s Political
Consultative Conference
Confirmation of positions for new
members of the Politburo Standing
Committee. Successor to PBOC
Governor Zhou Xiaochuan could
be appointed during the meeting.
July August September
3rd Quarter
1 Jul 24 Aug 13 Sep
Mexico General Election Deadline for Malaysia ECB Meeting
General Election
26 Jul 18—19 Sep
ECB Meeting BOJ Meeting
30—31 Jun 25—26 Sep
BOJ Meeting FOMC Meeting
31 Jul—1 Aug
FOMC Meeting
November December
6 Nov TBC 13 Dec
US Mid-Term election UK parliamentary vote on ECB Meeting
Given the low approval rates for Brexit deal (around year-end)
Trump, the mid-term election is likely UK is due to leave the European 18—19 Dec
to be rocky. Union in March 2019. If no deal FOMC Meeting
is reached, the UK economy may
7—8 Nov face heightened uncertainty. 19—20 Dec
FOMC meeting BOJ Meeting
TBC
Thailand general electionRisk Hotspots
Key Events and Risks for 2018 20
Identifying associated risks is necessary
to make informed investment decisions.
Risks can represent both upside and downside
catalysts. However, as we enter the late period
of the economic cycle, investors should exercise
more caution as tail risks loom larger.
North America Europe Japan
Wage inflation has been The Italian general election, JPY is viewed as a safe-haven
rising gradually but steadily. due to be held by May 2018, asset and hence it is sensitive
could lead to political to risk events. A strong yen could
The Fed may tighten too uncertainties. negatively affect the Japanese
aggressively and cause stress equity market.
to the market and the economy. German Chancellor Merkel
continues to work out a
US President Trump’s low coalition with other parties.
approval rate may lead to a more
uncertain mid-term election. Brexit talks are progressing
slowly. If no deal is reached,
the economic and political
ramifications could be significant.
ECB could normalise policies
too quickly and kill the fragile
economic recovery.Investment Outlook 2018 21
Inflation overshoot Geopolitical
The low unemployment rates and political risks
may indicate that the economy Geopolitical risks remain
is approaching full capacity. heightened, particularly in
This could soon translate to wage North Korea and the Middle
growth. Coupled with stablising East. Although the probability
commodity prices, inflation may of conflict is low, it has been
surprise on the upside. As markets creeping up.
have been underpricing inflation,
inflation surprise could cause Meanwhile, a number of elections
yields to rise sharply and result are scheduled to be held in the US,
in a sell-off of risk assets. Europe and some key emerging
economies. The results could
Data points: Wage growth,
change the political landscape.
global Consumer Price Index (CPI),
personal consumption Data points: News flow,
election polls
Central bank missteps
Key central banks are beginning China’s hard landing
to wind down their unprecedented China concluded its 19th Party
monetary experiments. Without Congress and President Xi’s
precedence to rely on, they run influence was strengthened.
a higher risk of misjudging the real The country’s focus on stability
impact on economy when they and deleveraging is likely to
unwind their policies. continue, but overly aggressive
policies could raise default rates
Data points: Central bank
and hard landing concerns.
meetings
Data points: China Purchasing
Managers Indices (PMIs),
retail sales, monetary supply,
property sales
Asia Pacific excluding EM excluding Asia
Japan Tensions have been rising
between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
China’s structural reforms
could cause short-term pains
Russia is expected to hold
and spark hard-landing concerns.
its presidential election in
March 2018.
North Korea is likely to continue
with its missile and nuclear tests.
Mexico is expected to hold
its general election in July 2018.
Malaysia is expected to
hold its general election before
Brazil is expected to hold its
24 August 2018.
general election in October 2018.
Thailand is expected to
hold its general election in
November 2018.22 Water and Wood All streams flow to the sea because it is lower than they are. Humility gives it its power. —Lao Tze
23 Asset Class Outlook and Strategy In formulating our asset class outlook, we consider the macro environment as well as specific attributes of the particular asset class. This helps us to construct our investment strategies and select suitable opportunities.
Our Strategy
Asset Class Outlook 24
and Strategy
We expect 2018 to be dominated by a
reflationary environment and heightened
valuations. Hence, we prefer opportunities
with attractive relative valuations and
strong secular drivers that can benefit
from reflationary environments.
01 Equities: Reflation
Theme
and rotation in DM
Heightened valuations and
reflationary impulses in DM
means it is timely to rotate out
of expensive, late-cycle markets
and interest rate-sensitive sectors.
Sectorial play in the US Ex-US opportunities
Strategy
Rich valuations and a hawkish Focus on opportunities in
Fed could limit the upside Europe and Japan. Their
for equities. Focus on sectors economies are at earlier
that could benefit from a stages of economic recovery,
reflationary environment. while monetary policy is
likely to remain easy.
US bank equities European equities
Solutions
Higher rates help improve Attractive valuations compared
interest margins for banks. to the US, while recovery
Potential deregulation in the is firm. Cyclicals sectors like
financial sector could provide Banks and Autos could benefit
additional tailwinds. from the current environment.
Japanese equities
Attractive valuations compared
to DM peers. The market has
been under-loved by investors
but fundamentals and an
accommodative policy are
in its favor.Investment Outlook 2018 25
02 Equities: Tap 03 Equities: Secular 04 Fixed Income &
into EM growth developments Foreign Exchange:
Synchronised global Secular developments Converging policies,
growth provides a stable could drive long-term but still divergent
backdrop for accessing growth in specific industries,
Key DM central banks
higher growth opportunities even in times of slower
agree on the need to
in EM economies. global expansion.
reduce excessive monetary
policy accommodation,
but disagree on the pace.
Limelight on reforms Everyone needs Rates are important,
and commodity plays healthcare but so are other factors
Focus on regions where The industry benefits from Aside from rates, supply-
past and ongoing reforms rapidly aging populations demand dynamics and foreign
are coming to fruition. in DM and rising income exchange are also important
Stable commodity prices in EM, which could drive contributors to absolute returns
could also provide tailwinds. sustained demand for in fixed income products.
its products and services.
EM equities Global healthcare Local currency EM debt
Structural reforms are setting equities The asset class offers yield
the stage for higher quality The sector trades at an pickup over DM debt. Better
growth in Asia. Ex-Asia, attractive discount to the current account balances are
commodity exporters could broader market. Subsectors supportive of currency strength.
benefit from commodity price with strong innovation
recovery. For China, sectors capabilities could continue AUD bonds
that benefit from economic to see earnings growth. A less hawkish Reserve Bank
reforms could offer attractive of Australia (RBA) and positive
opportunities. commodity outlook bodes well
for AUD and AUD bonds. The
asset class also offers yield
pickup over similar USD bonds.
Asia IG
Spreads are compressed,
but yield pickup is still positive
over DM debt. Reduced
issuances coupled with robust
demand should support prices.Equities
Asset Class Outlook 26
and Strategy
Equities remain our most preferred asset
class. Returns could moderate but should
remain positive in 2018. Being selective is
the key.
Key takeaways
Within the DM space, we prefer
opportunities outside the US, such
as Europe and Japan. European
equities could play catch-up
with their US counterparts while
Japanese equities are supported
by valuation and strong earnings.
Although we are neutral on US
equities, we see opportunities
in the financial sector.
EM equities are likely to continue
their winning streak in 2018.
The cycle in EM equities is still
early and valuations are attractive
against DM equities.
Secular trends for healthcare
will continue and the sector is
trading at attractive discounts
to the broader market. Overview
2017 was a stellar year for equities As such, equities remain as our
and marks the ninth year of the equity preferred asset class. Returns
bull run. As of end-November, global could moderate but should remain
equities registered total returns of positive in 2018. Given the relatively
21%. While sentiments remain generally full valuations, investors need to
upbeat, investors are increasingly be selective and be prepared for
questioning how much more the aged higher volatility in the markets.
bull can advance. Indeed, the current In the DM space, we prefer markets
bull market is the second-longest bull and sectors with relatively lower
market on record, but a bull market valuations that are earlier in the
cycle is not determined by its duration. economic cycle. Meanwhile, we
Past bull markets were usually brought continue to be constructive towards
to an end by economic recessions the growth story in EM.
or external shocks.
Looking ahead, although the 2017
growth surge may be hard to replicate,
recession risks remain low for 2018.
The macro environment remains
constructive. Synchronised global
growth, rising corporate earnings and
relatively accommodative monetary
policies are all supportive drivers of
equity outperformance. While external
risks, such as geopolitical tensions,
continue to be present, they are
unlikely to derail markets.Investment Outlook 2018 27
Regional views
Neutral on US equities as interest margins widen with a pickup
with preference to financials in yield and credit demand. Domestic
We maintain our neutral view on economic recovery could translate to
US equities. Despite the positive better sales for Autos. Valuations for
earnings momentum and possible both sectors are undemanding while
tax cuts, the upside could be limited prices on index levels are well below
by rich valuations. In addition, the their cyclical highs.
Fed is poised to tighten further
with BSR and three rate hikes. Some risks remain for the region.
The combination of rich valuations Excessive euro strength could hurt
and the tightening policy could earnings, but we take comfort that
cause valuation multiples to contract. the currency’s strength is backed
by improving economic conditions.
However, financials appear to be Meanwhile, we remain cautious about
attractive and the sector trades at political risks that could threaten the
an attractive discount to the overall EU’s integrity. Finally, the European
US market. Furthermore, as the debt issue could rear its ugly head
Fed tightens and rates move higher, again next year when Greece’s bailout
banks could see their interest program ends.
margins improve. The sector also
stands to benefit from potential Upgraded Japanese equities
deregulation. Finally, if tax reforms after snap election
are implemented, corporate tax rates The recent victory of Prime Minister
may be reduced from 35% to between Abe in the snap election removed
20% to 25%. This could translate a crucial risk for Japanese equities.
to significant tax savings for financials, With Abe’s party retaining its dominant
which currently have one of the highest position, Abenomics is likely to continue
tax rates, at 33%. and BOJ is likely to remain highly
accommodative. Meanwhile, the
Constructive on macro backdrop looks favourable,
European markets with GDP expanding for the seventh
In Europe, economic activities have straight quarter in 2017 Q3.
firmed over the course of 2017 while
political headwinds have receded Valuations for Japanese equities are
significantly. On the policy front, very attractive relative to its DM peers,
ECB has stated that it would keep even after the recent rally. In addition,
rates accommodative until well after earnings could benefit from the weaker
its QE program ends. JPY, as policy divergence with other
key central banks is likely to temper
Entering 2018, European equities JPY strength even amid sporadic safe
could play catch-up with US equities, haven trades. Fund inflows have picked
especially as markets seem to be up strongly in recent months and look
underpricing economic growth in the well supported. Finally, improvements
European region. Fund flows moderated in corporate governance, spearheaded
in recent months but remain positive by Abe, could encourage companies
and supported. On a sectorial basis, to return cash to investors through
cyclical industries, for example Banks dividends or share buybacks. This could
and Autos, are likely to outperform. trigger a rerating of Japanese equities.
The former could see earnings improveAsset Class Outlook 28
and Strategy
Japanese equities could be vulnerable, Potential headwinds for EM equities
if BOJ changes its policy stance and include unexpected USD strength,
begins tapering in 2018. Geopolitical especially if the Fed hikes interest
risk surrounding North Korea lingers rates more aggressively than expected.
and could weigh on sentiments. Commodity weakness could affect
EM commodity exporters, while stability
Positive on EM equities of the Chinese economy continues
After years of soft performance, to be a concern.
EM equities finally outpaced their DM
peers in 2017. A confluence of factors
contributed to the outperformance, Structural
such as synchronised global growth, opportunities
improving global trades, stabalisation Global healthcare
of China economy and revival of The secular story of healthcare
commodity prices. continues in the background. Rapidly
aging populations in DM and rising
EM equities are likely to continue their incomes in EM could drive the demand
winning streak in 2018. The cycle in for healthcare products and services.
EM equities is still early and the growth The sector has been trading at a
differential between EM and DM discount to the broader market in the
is expected to widen further in 2018. last two years, due to uncertainties
Meanwhile, valuations for EM equities surround US healthcare policy.
are still attractive against DM equities.
Fund inflows have been strong and While policy risks remain, investors
positive, in contrast to negative to can focus on subsectors such as
flat flows in the last four years. Key biopharma, which have strong
economies, namely China and India, innovation capabilities that could
are undergoing structural reforms, continue to propel earnings growth.
which could help set the stage for The subsector has seen drastic
higher quality growth in the future. increase in innovative drug approvals
A number of countries, for example in 2017 and a strong pipeline could
Brazil, Thailand and Malaysia, are drive earnings in 2018.
holding elections in 2018 and these
events could be catalysts for economic
reforms. For Chinese equities, the
sectors benefitting from economic
reforms, particularly large banks,
offer attractive opportunities.Investment Outlook 2018 29
Figure 03—In the DM space, European and Japanese equities have Highest PER in five-year history
more attractive valuations against US equities and their economies Lowest PER in five-year history
are earlier in the cycle +1/–1 standard deviation range
of five-year PER history
Current PER
Average PER
Valuation based on price-to-earnings ratio (PER)
Japan Europe US Economic cycle
Source: UOB PFS Investment StrategyFixed Income
Asset Class Outlook 30
and Strategy
Valuations are tight for the broad fixed income
market. Monetary policy normalisation is the
key development to monitor. Investors should
focus on the basics of bond investment.
Key takeaways yield, identifying issues with
Asian investment-grade bonds reasonable valuation, assessing
are supported by favourable the supply and demand mechanics,
supply-demand dynamics. and holding bonds in currencies
with appreciation potential.
AUD-denominated bonds could
benefit from a neutral central bank
policy and improving commodity USD-denominated
prices support the currency. bonds
Supply-demand dynamics
High real yield and underpriced
support Asian investment-
currencies help EM local currency
grade bonds
bonds stand out.
Despite the relatively tight valuation
of USD-denominated investment-grade
bonds, opportunities are still present.
Asian investment-grade bonds shine
among higher quality bonds, supported
by supply-demand dynamics. The
issue of Asian investment bonds has
been subdued, while local demand
remains strong as investors continue
Overview searching for yields. At the same
Credit spreads for fixed income markets time, default risks are kept low by the
have tightened in 2017. Across the US, positive economic outlook. Although
Europe and Asia, credits spreads for Asian investment-grade bonds are
both investment-grade and high-yield exposed to a Fed rate hike risk, their
bonds have reached post-financial crisis credit spreads have reflected low
lows. Although the spread compression correlations to rate hikes in previous
was partially driven by improving tightening cycles.
fundamentals such as declining default
rates and improving credit metrics, the
extremely tight spreads offer a limited
Non-USD
cushion in a rising-rate environment. denominated bonds
AUD bonds supported by central
2017 also marks the start of monetary bank and global trades
policy normalisation across major In contrast to the Fed’s hawkish bias,
central banks. The Fed has already the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
embarked on rate hikes and balance is well-positioned to be in a neutral
sheet reduction plans. The ECB state as inflation is relatively low.
has announced plans to taper its AUD-denominated bonds could have
QE program, though any exit will the potential for capital gain should
remain gradual. Only BOJ is likely yield decline. In addition, the yield
to continue easing. for AUD-denominated bonds is still
relatively competitive compared to
Against this backdrop, to achieve USD-denominated bonds. AUD is
positive total return, investors should likely to appreciate against the USD,
revert back to the basics of bond supported by recovery in commodity
investment. The factors investors exports supported by recovery in
should consider include finding the commodity exports, stabilisation in
right balance between quality and China’s economy, and global growth.Investment Outlook 2018 31
EM local currency bonds supportive to the inherent strength
with high real yield and of the currencies. While EM countries
underpriced currency have relatively higher inflation compared
Total returns of EM bonds are driven to DMs, it is mitigated by the high level
by income yield and potential currency of nominal yield. In India, Russia and
appreciation. EM currencies are well Brazil, central banks may even have
positioned due to the improvements in room to cut rates. A spike in USD
the countries’ current account balances is the main risk. However, we believe
and a recovery in commodity prices. that USD is likely to remain sideways
Higher global trade and rising foreign as the currency is expensive.
direct investments have also been
Figure 04—Supply-demand dynamics, high real yields and potential
currency appreciation will be the main drivers of total returns for
fixed income
High real yields
Comparable
Comparable
yields to
yields to USD-
IG bonds
denominated
issued by US
IG bonds
corporates
EM Local AUD IG
Asian IG bonds currency bonds bonds
Favourable Potential Potential
supply-demand currency currency
dynamics appreciation appreciation
Low inflation
gives RBA more
flexibility to
remain neutral
Source: UOB PFS Investment StrategyForeign Exchange
Asset Class Outlook 32
and Strategy
Diverging returns among G10 and
Asian currencies against USD in 2018.
Key takeaways
Commodity currencies are
likely to strengthen against USD.
AUD is supported by a recovery
in commodity prices. NZD
could see some upside, as the
currency is oversold and the
central bank’s guidance suggests
hawkish preference.
EUR is expected to be stable
against USD with supportive
economic fundamentals and
a gradual normalisation of
the ECB’s monetary policies.
Outlook for GBP and JPY
remains bearish. Dovish BOE
policy and Brexit talks could
weigh on GBP. JPY could
stay weak as BOJ continues its
accommodative monetary policy. Overview
At the start of 2017, many investors normalising their monetary policies.
Asian currencies could see expected a stronger USD. However, Going into 2018, we hold a neutral
more mixed performances it turned out to be a lacklustre year. view on the dollar index. Instead
against USD in 2018 due Though the Fed kept to its plan and of a broad-based USD strength,
to idiosyncratic factors. hiked rates three times, USD weakened G10 and Asian currencies are expected
against most G10 currencies. The to deliver diverging returns against
divergence has narrowed between the USD, influenced by the stage of the
Fed and other major central banks, as monetary cycle and the currency’s
synchronised global growth has steered idiosyncratic risks.
central banks such as the ECB to startInvestment Outlook 2018 33
G10 currencies
against USD
AUD and NZD likely EUR to be stable
to strengthen with upside bias
AUD will likely be supported by By the end of November 2017,
recovering oil and industrial metals EUR strengthened 12% against USD
prices. With the Reserve Bank of year-to-date with upside bias, and
Australia (RBA) widely expected is expected to be stable in 2018.
to keep rates on hold, commodity Fundamentally, economic recovery
prices are likely to be the key driver has been broad-based in Europe,
for AUD movements. with PMIs and sentiments at a multi-
year high. Current account balances
A recovery in commodities prices have improved significantly since
is expected to continue into 2018. 2011, and have already turned positive
Demand for oil has improved as in most countries. However, a
global growth picked up pace, and consolidation is expected in 2018
supply is expected to be tight next after the strong rally. Despite the
year with OPEC likely to extend its ECB’s reduction of its monthly
supply cut beyond March 2018. Oil purchases, the recent communication
inventory is forecasted to decrease suggested a more gradual pace.
slowly, albeit steadily. For industrial Yield differential between 10-year
metals, improving manufacturing US Treasuries and 10-year German
activities, higher infrastructure bunds has also decreased, putting
spending and supply-side reforms downward pressure on EUR. In addition,
in China may drive prices higher. the speculative net long positioning
in EUR/USD looks stretched and
NZD has been volatile as a result could be prone to reversion.
of a change in government in 2017.
After the general election in September, GBP and JPY to weaken
the currency lost 5% against USD Although the Bank of England (BOE)
within two months. However in 2018, hiked rates by 25 bps in the November
NZD is expected to strengthen against meeting, this does not necessarily
USD. Growth has been robust, signal a new hiking cycle. The dovish
supported by strong global trade and statement after the monetary decision
a tight job market. The Reserve Bank hinted at only two hikes in the future:
of New Zealand (RBNZ) is to modify one in late 2018 and another in 2020.
its mandates. As RBNZ has indicated Uncertainties surrounding Brexit
in recent meetings that the market’s negotiations and a weaker government
interpretation about its future policy further adds downward pressure
path may be overly dovish. Although on GBP.
political uncertainty could continue
weigh on NZD, at the current level,
NZD/USD is likely to see more upside.Asset Class Outlook 34
and Strategy
JPY is likely to stay weak against RMB is likely to remain firm against
USD. PM Abe’s landslide victory USD. Economic growth momentum
in the snap election ensures the in China is expected to soften,
continuity of Abenomics and but at a controlled pace. Improved
accommodative monetary policies. foreign reserves could help keep
The core inflation in Japan is still RMB anchored. SGD is expected
below 1% and BOJ has no pressure to be stable against USD. Further
to normalise its policies any time soon. tightening from the Fed could
put downward pressure on SGD.
However, the Monetary and Authority
Asian currencies of Singapore (MAS) is increasingly
against USD likely to hike rates during its April
A mixed bag 2018 meeting as Singapore’s growth
Supported by improving global and activity have gathered pace.
trades and a stable RMB, Asian
currencies have made decent gains However, some Asian currencies
of 5% to 10% in 2017. Going into could face downward pressure,
2018, Asian currencies could see for instance IDR and INR. Due to
more mixed performances. lower inflation, central bank policies
could remain relatively easy.
MYR could see further gains in 2018
as economic indicators are turning
increasingly positive for MYR. Bank
Negara Malaysia (BNM) turned more
hawkish and could hike rates by 25 bps
in early 2018. Improving economic
data, including better growth, higher
inflation, stable current surplus and
growing FX reserves, could provide
a constructive backdrop for MYR to
strengthen. Furthermore, the rising oil
price could benefit MYR, as Malaysia
remains a net oil exporter.Investment Outlook 2018 35
Figure 05—Focus on total returns when investing in bonds—
consider both yield and capital appreciation perspectives
Strengthen against USD
AUD
Higher oil and metal prices,
RBA on hold
NZD
Oversold, hawkish guidance USD
from RBNZ
Diverging returns
EUR for currency pairs
Improving economic fundamentals,
but dovish ECB guidance could Neutral against USD
limit the upside
SGD
MYR MAS to tighten but gradually
Better economic data, higher
oil prices, hawkish BNM CNY Weaken against USD
Growth momentum to slow down,
but at a controlled pace. IDR, INR
Improved foreign reserves Central banks likely to stay dovish
stabalises currency
GBP
BOE dovish, Brexit risk
JPY
BOJ continues with easy policy
Source: UOB PFS Investment Strategy36
37 Country Focus Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia China
Singapore
Country Focus 38
Moderating but broadening growth
points to a stable economic outlook
Key takeaways
Overall, growth is likely to be
more broad-based in Singapore,
although headline numbers are
likely to moderate. Domestic
sectors in Singapore are likely
to bottom out while a slowdown
in China could cause a drag on
global trade. A sustained pipeline
of public sector projects should
support economic growth.
Inflation has been picking up.
MAS could tighten its monetary
policy as early as April 2018.
However, the flexibility of its
policy tools allow for incremental
adjustments and its impact should
be limited.
Private home sales grew 29% For the services sector, better
year-on-year in September 2017 sentiments and economic activities
despite coinciding with the “hungry are likely to continue to support
ghost festival”. The optimism in the its expansion. Finally, for the lagging
housing sector underscores the same construction sector, a sustained pipeline
confidence in the broader economy. of public sector projects should help to
The manufacturing sector enjoyed arrest any decline. Overall, Singapore’s
double-digit growth, led by a surge real GDP growth is expected to slow
in global semiconductor demand. from 3.3% in 2017 to 2.5% in 2018, and
The services sector, accounting for headline inflation is expected to pick up
two-thirds of the economy, also from 0.5% to 1.5% in 2018.
witnessed notable improvements.
It expanded 3% year-on-year in the Monetary policy could be adjusted
third quarter of 2017, the strongest as early as April 2018, during the next
showing since 2015. MAS meeting. SGD NEER has been
trading above its midpoint for most
Moving into 2018, we are likely to of the time this year. However, given
see growth converge between sectors. the flexible nature of its policy tools,
Growth in the manufacturing sector we expect limited impact to the
is likely to slow as semiconductor economy as adjustments are likely
sales moderate, due to the high to be incremental.
base effect and potential slowdown
in China.Investment Outlook 2018 39
Stocks Bonds Foreign Exchange
As with the global stock market, Local rates are likely to drift higher, SGD is likely to decline gradually
Singapore equities also enjoyed a stellar led by the tightening cycle in the US. against USD due to monetary policy
run in 2017. The environment, however, Hence, investors are advised to avoid divergence. MAS may adjust its stance
will be more challenging going into taking up excessive duration in their in April 2018, but changes are likely
2018. Interest rates are poised to rise portfolios. Issuance has tapered since to be incremental. Meanwhile, the
while growth could moderate in the the series of commodity-led defaults Fed is expected to continue tightening.
local economy. Banks could benefit in 2016 while demand remains robust, Singapore Interbank Offered Rate
from such an environemnt, as a steeper leading to favorable demand-supply (SIBOR) is likely to drift higher
yield curve could help improve net dynamics for the local bond market. alongside US London Interbank Offered
interest margins and support earnings. The setup is likely to continue into Rate (LIBOR), albeit to a lesser degree.
A benign environment will also support 2018, creating a supportive environment
business activities and loan growth. for local bonds despite potentially
higher rates.
Figure 06—The recent rebound in Singapore’s external sectors Externally oriented industries
could spill over positively Domestically driven industries
Growth
YoY %
Dot-com bubble Global financial crisis
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
–5
–4.4%
–10
–15 –6%
–20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: CEIC, UOB GLobal Economics and Markets ResearchMalaysia
Country Focus 40
Sound macro fundamentals
provide a buffer against market volatility
Key takeaways
Malaysia’s compelling growth
in the first half of 2017 outpaced
regional performance, lifted by
private spending and exports.
Current growth momentum is
expected to sustain into 2018.
Outlook on Malaysian equities
remains positive, underpinned
by a strong economic backdrop,
better corporate earnings, rising
commodity prices, potential
China investments and election-
related spending.
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)
continues to signal a neutral tone
on the direction of interest rates.
MYR is fundamentally undervalued
over the long-term.
Malaysia’s economy is on firmer The benchmark overnight policy
footing after delivering remarkable rate (OPR) is expected to remain
GDP growth of 5.7% in the first half status quo at 3% in 2018, but do
of 2017 compared to 4% in the same not rule out the possibility of a rate
period last year. Following the data, hike if strong GDP growth sustains
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said and wage pressures filter into higher
growth in 2017 will be stronger than inflation pressures.
expected. The country’s growth in
2018 is expected to be further fuelled An undervalued ringgit, supported
by domestic demand and robust by positive fundamentals and higher
exports. Domestic economic policies Brent crude oil towards USD60/bbl,
continue to be supportive, and its 2018 underpins our view that the ringgit
budget is likely to be expansionary and is in a better place to strengthen
spur consumption growth. assuming modest USD gains.
Headline inflation is expected to
peak in 2017 at 3.9% year-on-year
and moderate in 2018 to 2.5% year-
on-year as global cost factors abate.
Demand-led inflation will be sustained
by more robust domestic demand
but is expected to remain contained.Investment Outlook 2018 41
Stocks Bonds Foreign Exchange
Malaysian equities have been a We expect Malaysian yields to trend MYR is likely to strengthen
laggard in 2017, compared with Asia higher along with US Treasury yields, moderately against USD, although
ex-Japan. We maintain a constructive albeit at a moderate pace. Demand some volatility is expected. The
view supported by domestic macros, for bonds has remained resilient, positive view is underpinned by
stronger foreign fund inflows and supported by attractive real yields. positive fundamentals, improving
the resumption of corporate earnings With an improving macro backdrop fiscal position and higher commodity
growth. Key investment themes include and reserve adequacy ratio, the sharp prices. It is currently trading at the
infrastructure spending, rising China foreign selling of government bonds bottom of its historic real effective
foreign direct investments, reforms since November 2016 has abated and exchange rate range.
among government-linked companies, the foreign holdings of Malaysia bonds
a rebound in tourism and growth in should largely remain stable.
commodity prices. Bottom-up stock
picking strategy and profit taking from
outperformers would be a prudent
approach in 2018. A key risk to look out
for is the country’s domestic elections.
Figure 07—Malaysia’s growth is underpinned by private consumption GDP Growth (left)
and exports Private Consumption (left)
Exports (right)
Growth YoY
YoY % %
10 35
30
8 25
20
6 15
10
4 5
0
2 -5
-10
0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: BloombergThailand
Country Focus 42
Moderately rising economic growth
driven by investment and tourism
Key takeaways
The Thai economy enjoys a
healthy level of growth driven
by a combination of infrastructure
spending, private investments
and tourism.
However, rich valuations in
the local equity market could
put a ceiling on further upside,
especially since global rates could
rise. The bond market could also
be at risk due to reduced policy
accommodation, although low
foreign ownership in local bonds
could help limit hot money flows.
On the currency front, the THB
is likely to weaken against USD
as policy divergence widens.
Key drivers for Thailand’s growth in The overall economic outlook remains
2018 include infrastructure spending, positive for Thailand and is underscored
private investments and tourism. by the Bank of Thailand (BOT) revising
Infrastructure spending could pick its GDP growth target for 2018 from
up as many of the previously delayed 3.7% to 3.8% in September. The target
projects are expected to kick-start in may look ambitious, but it is achievable
2018. Higher level of utilisation in the if the key growth drivers hold up.
manufacturing sector and Eastern
Economic Corridor (EEC) should Finally, in terms of monetary policy,
incentivise private investments. BOT is expected to keep its rate
Meanwhile, Thailand remains one of unchanged at least to the second half
the top destinations for tourists and of 2018 as slack remains in the economy
the number of visitors is expected to and inflation looks manageable.
grow by 7% to 8% to reach 38 million
in 2018, from the current year-end
forecast of 36 million for 2017.
Conversely, a growth in household
consumption could slow in the lower-
to-mid income space. This is due to
a combination of a slowdown in farm
incomes and continued deleveraging in
households due to tighter credit card
and personal loan regulations. Exports
are likely to continue growing modestly,
but are unlikely to be a growth driver.Investment Outlook 2018 43
Stocks Bonds Foreign Exchange
Valuations in the Thai equity market A steady supply of shot-term bills Monetary divergence between the
are elevated. The setup reduces upside and BOT’s stable monetary policy Fed and BOT, reduction in Thailand’s
potential and leaves little room for outlook should keep short-term yields current account surplus and potential
error. Selective sectors could offer relatively anchored in the local market. tax reform in the US are likely to cause
opportunities. For example, the banking Low levels of foreign holdings help limit THB to weaken in 2018. We expect
sector has seen NPLs stabilised and it volatility. As such, bonds with shorter the currency to remain in the range
is also likely to benefit from increased terms are preferred, though investors of 33.50 to 34.50 in 2018.
public and private investments. The could consider taking tactical positions
commerce sector, meanwhile, could in longer term bonds if long-term
enjoy support from tourism growth, and yields spike.
investors can consider buying on dips.
Figure 08—Tourism in Thailand continues to provide support for growth 12-month rolling average
of monthly visitor arrivals
Monthly visitor arrivals
Monthly
visitor arrivals
3.0M
2.5M
2.0M
1.5M
1.0M
0.5M
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: BloombergIndonesia
Country Focus 44
Resilient economy towards both
internal and external pressures
Key takeaways
The economic outlook for
Indonesia remains positive,
however, it is clouded by
potential risks such as rising
trade protectionism, weakening
commodity prices and an
escalation in geopolitical tensions.
The 2018 regional election and
2019 presidential election may
raise the domestic political risk.
The recent reduction of corporate
tax for small-medium enterprises
(SMEs) from 1% to 0.25% is likely
to increase domestic investment
from more than 56 million SMEs
in the country, which accounts for
60% of GDP.
Indonesia’s 2018 GDP growth is to 2.92% of GDP, the government
expected to improve to 5.4% from forecasts the budget deficit in 2018 to
5.2% in 2017 as set in the 2018 State improve to 2.19% of GDP, this is with
Budget approved by the Indonesian the assumption that the tax ratio is
Parliament. Social spending is expected increased from the existing 10.3% to
to pick up as Indonesia is entering into 10.9% in coming year. The country’s
a year of elections. This tends to have recent upgrade by Standard & Poor’s
positive impact on private consumption, to an investment-grade rating and
which accounts for more than half continued reform efforts by the
of the country’s GDP. Indonesia’s government has helped accelerate
expansionary fiscal policy remains the capital inflows, including private
key focus and is expected to support investment. With inflation slowing down,
growth through budget reallocations the Central Bank is keeping an easing-
in providing larger spending ceiling bias with a 50 bps rate cut this year.
for public infrastructure, health and The lower rate aims to further boost
education. Although the budget credit growth to double-digits in 2018.
deficit in 2017 widened from 2.41%Investment Outlook 2018 45
Stocks Bonds Foreign Exchange
Infrastructure and structural Indonesia’s government bonds IDR is expected to experience
reforms remain key priorities for the offer one of the most attractive inflation- downward pressure because the
government. Ease of doing business adjusted returns. Monetary policy central bank’s view diverges from
and the low cost of funding after rate continues to be accommodative, with that of the Fed. The pause in policy
cuts of 200 bps since beginning of the government aiming to keep inflation easing signals and record-high foreign
2016 are expected to attract more below 4%. Short-medium local currency reserves allow the Central Bank to
investments from both domestic and government bonds are preferred over maintain the currency within the
foreign investors. Higher domestic long-term ones due to a divergence in target set by the government.
holdings in local equities may reduce central bank views toward monetary
external shock should regional or global policy, which places downward pressure
uncertainties escalate. Investment in on IDR. Considering the hawkish stance
the stock market, particularly in the from the Fed, short duration USD
consumer staples, construction and Indonesian government bonds are the
banking sectors, remain attractive as preferred asset class as Indonesia’s
consumer sentiment rises, infrastructure sovereign rating has just been raised
spending continues and merger and and has a positive outlook.
acquisition activities pick up in the
banking sector.
Figure 09—Bank of Indonesia is expected to remain accommodating Yield curve as of 31 Dec 2016
Yield curve as of 11 Oct 2017
Indonesia Interest
Rate %
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
1 Day 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year
Tenor
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