Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge-Guelph Integrated Regional Resource Plan Engagement webinar #1 - IESO
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Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge-Guelph Integrated Regional Resource Plan Engagement webinar #1 December 5, 2019
Objectives of Today’s Engagement Webinar
• To provide an overview of the regional planning
activities in the Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge-
Guelph (KWCG) region, including the electricity
demand forecast and preliminary needs identified
• To seek feedback on the proposed engagement
activities, electricity demand forecast and high level
needs to be addressed in the development of an
Integrated Regional Resource Plan (IRRP) for the
KWCG region
• To outline next steps
2
Agenda
• Overview of the IESO and Regional Planning Activities
• Electricity Planning in the KWCG Region:
– Overview of the region
– 2015 Integrated Regional Resource Plan -
recommendations and results
– Status of the current planning cycle
• Community Engagement and Next Steps
3
Seeking Input
As you listen today, consider any additional factors that should be
considered in the following processes:
• Determining the electricity demand forecast for the KWCG region
Are there any key developments, projects or initiatives that should be considered in
the electricity planning for the region? Is there any additional information that
might influence the forecast such as the expansion or retirement of large
customers/electricity users, industry trends or other local activities?
• Identifying needs that need to be addressed
Do you have any areas of concern or interest in relation to electricity that you
would like to see considered as part of the planning process?
• Engaging with communities and interested parties
What information do you think will be important to provide throughout the
engagement?
Does the proposed Engagement Plan provide sufficient scope and opportunities for
input? What other engagement activities or methods should be considered?
Please submit your written comments by email to
engagement@ieso.ca by December 19
4
OVERVIEW OF THE IESO AND
REGIONAL PLANNING ACTIVITIES
5
6
Ontario’s System at a Glance
Installed Capacity
36,928 MW The IESO is the Reliability Coordinator and
(Dec 2018) the Planning Coordinator for Ontario and
Record Summer Peak works closely with other jurisdictions across
27,005 MW North America to ensure reliability of the
(August 1, 2006) interconnected power system
Record Winter Peak 24,979 MW
(December 20, 2004)
Grid Energy
137.4 TWh
Consumed (2018)
Hydro Quebec
Customers ~ 5 million
ISO New
Transmission Lines 30,000 km England
Planning Regions 21
Midcontinent ISO
Import/ Export
6,500 /6,100 MW
Capability
New York
New York, Quebec, ISO
Interconnections Manitoba, Michigan,
Minnesota
7
IESO: Who we are and what we do
Reliably operate Enable province-
Ontario’s province-wide wide energy
system 24/7 efficiency
Support innovation to Drive electricity
drive down costs market efficiencies
Work closely with
Plan for Ontario’s communities to
future energy needs explore sustainable
options
Focus of our discussion
8
Planning for Ontario’s Electricity System
Distribution
Bulk system Regional
network
planning planning
planning
Addresses Integrates local Examines local
provincial electricity priorities electricity system
electricity system with provincial policy needs and
needs and policy directions & system priorities at
directions needs community level
Ministry of Energy, Northern
IESO LDCs
Development and Mines
IESO Transmitters
Asset Owner (e.g. Transmitter,
Local Distribution Companies
large generators)
First Nation, Métis, municipalities and industry stakeholders
Key participants
9
What is Regional Planning?
• A process for identifying and meeting the unique
electricity needs of a region
• Ensures a reliable supply of electricity to Ontario’s
communities
• Considers a wide range of options including
conservation, generation, transmission and
distribution and other innovative resources
• Continual process resulting in 20-year outlooks, but
assessed every five years at a minimum
1021 Electricity Regional Planning Regions
Northwest
• Based on Ontario
Northeast
electricity Ontario
infrastructure
boundaries
• Planning based
GTA and
Central
Ontario
on each region’s
unique needs and
characteristics
East
Southwest
Ontario
Ontario
KWCG
Region
11Regional Planning Process Steps
3
Local issue with no
Local Plan
April 2019 regional impact
December 2018
1 2 TODAY
Needs Scoping Broader regional Integrated
Assessment Assessment Decision impacts Regional
Potential for non-wires
options Resource
Lead: Comprehensive Plan (IRRP)
Lead: IESO planning required
Transmitter
Community
Gather data and Determine how engagement required
Lead: IESO
determine a list each of the
of electricity needs identified
needs identified will be addressed Straightforward need
Regional
in a local area and recommend Needs can only be Infrastructure
a study approach
addressed by wires Plan (RIP)
solution
Limited bulk and Lead:
upstream impacts
Transmitter
12Coordinating Local Planning Activities
IRRP
Data Gathering Distribution System Plan
LDCs
Regional Electricity
Demand Forecast INPUT Local Demand Forecast
INPUT
Needs Assessment
Official and Secondary Plans
Communities
Community
Options Development INPUT Energy Plan/
& Evaluation Community Energy
Community Climate
Infrastructure Reporting/
Growth Plan Change
Plan CDM Plan
Adaptation
Plan
Recommendations
13Current Status of KWCG Regional Planning
• IRRP study work began in Q2 2019, and is on track for
completion mid-2020
– Draft electricity demand forecast has been completed
– Studying the underlying factors driving the forecast to determine
and assess the needs to be addressed in this planning cycle and
develop a detailed description of needs to better screen and
evaluate options
Study Timeline
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 … … Q2 2020 Q2 2020
Needs Scoping IRRP Study and Engagement IRRP
Assessment Assessment Published
14ELECTRICITY PLANNING IN THE
KWCG REGION:
2015 INTEGRATED REGIONAL RESOURCE
PLAN - RECOMMENDATIONS AND RESULTS
15The KWCG Study Area
• Includes the Region of Waterloo,
City of Guelph and portions of
Perth, Wellington and Oxford
Counties
• Population: ~735,000
• Electricity demand: ~1400 MW or
about 6% of the Provincial demand
• 2015 IRRP identified:
- some pockets of moderate
growth
- some capacity and reliability
improvement needs
- conservation and distributed
generation activities driven by
Government policies at that
time
162015 IRRP Key Recommendations and Status
Lead
Recommendations Status/Result
Responsibility
- Conservation: added about 8 and 12
MW in 2016 and 2017, similar to what
Implement conservation and was forecasted
LDCs/
1 distributed generation as - Distributed Generation: added 7 and 6
IESO
forecasted MW (installed) in 2016 and 2017; a
couple of larger projects (CHPSOP)
were cancelled after award
Implement the Guelph Area
Submitted Section 92 filing on March 8,
Transmission Refurbishment
2013
Project (GATR)
- 230 kV line and stations
2 Hydro One Approved by the Ontario Energy Board
in Guelph
(OEB) on September 29, 2013
- Two 230 kV switches on
the D6/7V circuits in
In-service spring 2016
Guelph
- Install two 230 kV switches
3 on the M20/21D circuit in Hydro One In-service spring 2017
Cambridge 17Other Recommendations in the 2015 IRRP
Recommendations for the longer- Status / Comment
term (2024 and beyond)
• Continue to undertake community • Ongoing
engagement (IESO/LDCs)
• Monitor demand growth, conservation • Ongoing
and demand management (CDM)
achievements and distributed generation
(IESO)
• Explore opportunities to coordinate use • Ongoing and will be incorporated in the
and development of transformation new IRRP
station facilities in the KWCG Region
(LDCs)
18ELECTRICITY PLANNING IN THE
KWCG REGION:
STATUS OF THE CURRENT PLANNING CYCLE
19IRRP Team
Team Lead
System Operator and Planner
Local Distribution Company
Transmitter and Local Distribution
Company
20Current Cycle of KWCG Regional Planning
• Last cycle completed in 2015
with IRRP and RIP
published Needs
Assessment
Public
• OEB requires that regional
Comment
planning must be renewed Completed in Dec 2018
at least once every five Community
Engagement
years. & Scoping
– The new cycle kicked off Monitoring of Assessment
plan
in late 2018 recommendation
s
• The ongoing IRRP is Community Completed in May 2019
scheduled to be completed Engagement
in mid 2020
– Draft demand forecast
completed, to be finalized
with LDCs and IRRP
municipalities IRRP
Options Planning Forecast
– Initial stage of studies to Development Identify/Confirm
Recommendations Needs
identify/confirm needsPreliminary Needs and Planning Approaches
• Preliminary needs in the next 10 years has been identified in the Needs
Assessment process
– Capacity needs
• Energy+ and Waterloo North Hydro service territories
• Campbell TS in south Guelph area
– Equipment end-of-life needs
• Multiple transformers and line sections
– Supply reliability needs
• Portion of 115 kV circuit near Elmira
– Other needs
• Equipment short circuit capability, connection challenges for behind-the-
meter projects, etc.
• Scoping Assessment recommended IRRP and Local Planning to address
these preliminary needs
• The IRRP will identify and confirm needs by assessing the adequacy of
electricity supply over the next 20 years, and recommend solutionsData Gathering – Demand Forecast
• The IRRP assesses the electricity needs based on a 20-year forecast
of peak electricity demand
• A peak demand forecast for the region is created by
– Collecting electricity demand forecast information from each LDC in
the region
• Since electricity demand is weather sensitive, demand forecast information
from LDCs are created assuming median weather conditions
– Estimated impact of province-wide Conservation and Demand
Management (“CDM”) targets on the region’s peak demand
– Calculating the forecast peak demand contribution of contracted
distributed generation (“DG”)
– Adjusting the forecast to account for the impact of extreme weather
conditions
23Demand Forecast Assumptions and Approach
20-Year Demand Forecast & Scenarios
çDevelopment of Demand Forecast
2. Weather
1. Historical Adjusted to Corrected Impact of DG 3. Starting
Demand median temp Historical added back Point Demand*
Demand
LDCs incorporate
non-weather
To obtain baseline Historical demand growth factors ^
historical load includes the effect of
consumption, the DG. As such, in
historical load is order to obtain gross 4. Gross
adjusted to account load consumption, the Demand
for the impact of impact of distributed Forecast NPCC & ORTAC
year-to-year generation is
criteria requires to
weather variation accounted for
The impact of study extreme
CDM and DG is temperature
incorporated
6. Planning
5. Net Demand Adjusted to
Demand
Forecast extreme temp Forecast
* gross demand
^ Examples: economics, population growth, community growth and development 25KWCG – Demand Comparison
• Demand Forecast’s steps 1, 2, and 3 (unbundling) are shown
⁻ 1387 MW was the starting point communicated to LDCs
26KWCG – Demand Comparison
• LDCs have provided their demand forecast (step 4)
2019 IRRP forecast is lower than 2015 IRRP
KWCG Demand - Gross - Extreme Weather
2100
⁻ 2019 IRRP has
lower starting
Load (MW)
1800 point than 2015
1751
⁻ 2019 IRRP utilizes
1500 lower growth rate
in its forecast than
1492 2015 IRRP
1200 Year
2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
Historical Demand IESO Forecast 2015 IRRP Forecast - High Growth
27Seeking Input
As you listen today, consider any additional factors that should be
considered in the following processes:
• Determining the electricity demand forecast for the KWCG region
Are there any key developments, projects or initiatives that should be considered
in the electricity planning for the region? Is there any additional information that
might influence the forecast such as the expansion or retirement of large
customers/electricity users, industry trends or other local activities?
• Identifying needs that need to be addressed
Do you have any areas of concern or interest in relation to electricity that you
would like to see considered as part of the planning process?
• Engaging with communities and interested parties
What information do you think will be important to provide throughout the engagement?
Does the proposed Engagement Plan provide sufficient scope and opportunities for input?
What other engagement activities or methods should be considered?
Please submit your written comments by email to
engagement@ieso.ca by December 19
28COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT AND
NEXT STEPS
29Community Engagement to Shape Ontario’s
Electricity Future
https://youtu.be/Nt8q8cBG_BI
30IESO Engagement
• Broaden
community
engagement
efforts
• Increase
communication
channels
• Enhance
engagement
process for
regional planning
31Community Engagement Objectives
Goal: To provide information to communities and interested parties on the
regional electricity planning activities underway in the KWCG region.
Gather feedback to help inform the development of the forecast electricity
demand, local needs to be studied, and options for the development of an
Integrated Regional Resource Plan to be complete mid-2020
Awareness and understanding of regional planning
Outcomes activities and regional needs
Effective dialogue on needs and options developed
Engagement Plan
Feedback on key components to help inform
Outputs
electricity and solutions
IRRP
32Who Should Participate?
• Municipalities
• Chambers of Commerce/Boards of Trade
• Large energy users
• Community groups and associations (e.g.
community/resident associations, Business Improvement
Areas, home builders associations, etc.)
• Academia and research organizations
• Energy service providers
• Environment and sustainability organizations
• General public
33Key Areas for Input
Process Outcome Community Input
• April 11 – Draft Scoping Assessment Outcome
Data Report postedAre
Electricity forthere
public input
any economic development or other growth or project
Gathering demand plans that might influence the regional load forecast?
forecast
• May 9 – IESO Isresponses
there additionalto feedback
information received
that should and
be considered?
finalElectricity
Technical Scoping Assessment Outcome
Is there additional information that Report postedin the
should be considered
Study needs and study assumptions?
timing
• November 18 – initial meeting with municipalities
Options Solutions Is there community feedback to the solutions proposed that
in the planning
options area
should be considered in further development of the IRRP?
Are there any other options that should be considered?
• Late November – launch formal engagement
Action Near-term What further discussions are needed to initiate near-term projects?
initiative
projects and What should communities consider in their plans in the medium-
longer-term and long-term? (e.g. Official Plan review, Secondary Plan
activities development, etc.)
34Engagement so far…
• April 11, 2019: Draft Scoping Assessment posted for
public comment
• May 9, 2019: Final Scoping Assessment with IESO
responses to feedback received posted
• November 19, 2019: Meeting with municipalities in
the KWCG region to discuss IRRP status, draft
electricity demand forecast, high level needs and
engagement
35What we’ve heard so far…
• Areas of concentrated growth should be specifically
considered (e.g. East Side Development Lands)
• Continue to consider community energy plans and
other key planning initiatives throughout the
planning process (e.g. Region of Waterloo Municipal
Comprehensive Review)
• Impact of local initiatives should be taken into
account in developing the electricity demand
forecast and assessing local needs (e.g. Stage 2 ION
corridor, electrification of public transit, etc.)
36Engagement Plan – Draft Timeline
• Engagement initiative launched November 21; draft
Engagement Plan [link] posted for comment
Milestone Public Webinar Documents Posted
and Written
Comment Period
Demand forecast, high level December 5 /
January 16, 2020
needs and Engagement Plan December 19
Defined needs and potential Early/Mid-March Late March 2020
solutions being examined 2020 (responses to feedback)
Options evaluation and Late May/Early
recommendations June 2020
Final IRRP Q2 2020 (plan posted with
responses to feedback)
• Additional engagement activities may be undertaken as
needs and potential solutions are studied
37Seeking Input
As you listen today, consider any additional factors that should be
considered in the following processes:
• Determining the electricity demand forecast for the KWCG region
Are there any key developments, projects or initiatives that should be considered in the
electricity planning for the region? Is there any additional information that might influence
the forecast such as the expansion or retirement of large customers/electricity users,
industry trends or other local activities?
• Identifying needs that need to be addressed
Do you have any areas of concern or interest in relation to electricity that you would like to
see considered as part of the planning process?
• Engaging with communities and interested parties
What information do you think will be important to provide throughout the
engagement?
Does the proposed Engagement Plan provide sufficient scope and opportunities for
input? What other engagement activities or methods should be considered?
Please submit your written comments by email to
engagement@ieso.ca by December 19
38Timeline and Next Steps
Ongoing engagement will
endure throughout IRRP
development Q2 2020:
publish
Q2 2020:
IRRP
develop
Q1-Q2 2020: recommendations
examine and
develop
Q4 2019- potential
Q1 2020: options
Further
study of
Mid-/late needs Written feedback on electricity
Q4 2019: demand forecast and draft
launch Engagement Plan due December 19
engagement
initiative Responses to feedback posted
January 16
39Keeping in Touch
• Subscribe to receive updates on the KWCG regional initiatives on the
IESO website http://www.ieso.ca/subscribe > select Kitchener-
Waterloo-Cambridge-Guelph
• Follow the KWCG regional planning activities online
http://www.ieso.ca/Get-Involved/Regional-Planning/Southwest-
Ontario/Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge-Guelph
• Regional Electricity Planning for KWCG – engagement webpage
http://www.ieso.ca/en/Sector-Participants/Engagement-
Initiatives/Engagements/Integrated-Regional-Resource-Plan-Kitchener-
Waterloo-Cambridge-Guelph
• Regional Electricity Networks provide a platform for ongoing
engagement on electricity issues:
http://ieso.ca/en/Get-Involved/Regional-Planning/Electricity-
Networks/2019-2020-Regional-Electricity-Networks > join Southwest
Ontario Network
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