MONTHLY NEWSLET TER JULY 2021 - iqi global
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
JULY 2021 MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
SHAN SAEED
Chief Economist at Juwai IQI
+60 10-893 1107 shan.saeed@iqiglobal.com
Global Economic Outlook H2
Recovery or Fragility?
Recovery continues to stay on hold, as many economies have yet to
come out of the covid situation and remain without a strategy to cope
with the pandemic. The economies are looking fragile as the recovery
outlook is questionable now. The USA and UK are speeding up the
vaccination process, but others are lagging, like India / Japan and
Europe. China is moving into the fast lane and leading the global
economy from the front. The USA is number 2 now.
Risk Factors
The Four key risk variables, hitting the market in the next 12-17 months.
1 Systematic risk inflation/interest rates hike
2 Sovereign debt risk the collapse of bond
3 Liquidity risk once QE is over or stopped
4 Fair valuation risk correction in equity markets and
revaluation of other asset classes
Oil Price Forecast for
H2, 2021 - North
We have revised our forecast after many years for oil this year
since we have got our target price for the year, i.e. $70/barrel.
We at JUWAI IQI expect oil prices to move around $73 to $87/
barrel based on the same premises.
1 Geopolitical risk
2 Depreciating dollar
3 Higher demand as economies are opening with the faster
pace of vaccination
Source: The Economist, WSJ, The Star Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!
SHAN SAEED
Chief Economist at Juwai IQI
+60 10-893 1107 shan.saeed@iqiglobal.com
China
Strong Growth is Inevitable
China continues to draw FDI into her country due to
strategic economic policy, i.e., dual circulation strategy to
maintain macroeconomic stability and confidence at the
macro level. The latest chart speaks for itself.
Malaysian Economic
Outlook
– Faster Recovery Possible
Four key variables are going strong for
Malaysia i.e.
Quarterly net FDI inflow by sectors 1 Export numbers are up 63% for April
Net FDI Flow
10
2 FDI remains strong
9.1
8 Manufactoring
3 Domestic demand can pick up sharply
6.8
6
5.7 Services Activities once MCO gets over
(SA)
4 Net FDI Flow
2.5 4 Ringgit maintains structural stability
2 against USD.
0
-0.3
-2 Fiscal and monetary policy levers are
-4 proving to work effectively, and ultimately
1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q 2020 4Q 2020 1Q 2021
these policies can provide forward guidance
to local and global investors.
Source: The Economist, WSJ, The Star Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!
DAVE PLATTER
Global PR and Communications Directors at Juwai IQI
+61 432 814 888 dave@juwai.com
Juwai IQI Insight
27% of Investors to Buy International Real Estate
Cross-border real estate investors are already looking past the COVID pandemic. In China, 27% of Chinese
investors told Juwai IQI in a new survey that they intend to buy international real estate over the next two
years.
One-third of these investors have at least 40% of their savings dedicated to real estate assets.
This chart highlight more insights from the survey.
Juwai IQI Appoints Three Top Talents
The team that will help lead Juwai IQI’s push into the future is taking shape, with the company recently
making three high-level appointments.
Syed Ahmed has become Vice
Emily Gebbett has come on as Group President of Investment
General Counsel. She is the former Management and is located in
General Counsel and Head of Corporate Toronto. He is a corporate
Affairs at now Tencent-owned iFlix. multinational marketing and
She will be based in Kuala Lumpur. strategy expert with excellent
relationships among
high-net-worth individuals who
Dubai-based Anis Anwar has taken a has more than 20 years of senior
role as Vice President of Strategic leadership experience at such
Alliances for the Middle East and North global brands as Nissan Motor
Africa from his base in Dubai. He has Corporation and Mitsubishi.
more than 20 years in the banking
sector and a web of relationships with
high-net-worth individuals and
corporate customers.
Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!
IRHAMY AHMAD
Founder and Managing Director of Irhamy International Valuers
+60 12-331 1878 irhamyahmad@iivglobal.com
The State of the Residential
Property Market Q1 2021
The figures released by the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) met the general expectation of
the property watchers. The last two quarters of 2020 saw a tremendous rise of over 100% from Q2 2020,
registering 89,232 units and 91,260 units, respectively. However, after two consecutive rises, the market
fell back to 80,694 units in Q1 2021, a drop of 11.6%. A similar trend of 2020 may occur in Q2 2021 that is a
further drop in the number of transactions. A wild guess would be another 10%.
In tandem with the overall market conditions and the government’s call, the new launches have shifted to
an affordable range, where most new units are below RM300,000. This represents a solid 40% equaling
2,369 units. The next most launched unit type is in the mid-range of RM300,000 – RM500,000 at 1,770
units representing 29.9%.
It is interesting also to see that the upper range of RM500,001 – RM1,000,000 is almost neck and neck at
1,752 units or 29.6% of the total launch. The highest-end unit type is priced at more than RM1,000,000,
remains subdued at only 28 units representing 0.5% of the total number.
Although there is a drop in the transaction rate in the first quarter of 2021, a recent report by an online
portal painted a slightly different picture on the sub-segment of the residential market. 80% of residential
property transaction were made by investors seeking secondary market homes. When the sub-sales
homes are being snapped up by investors, it shows that the drop in prices is matches the spending power,
forming the bedrock of the residential property market in Malaysia.
Source: NAPIC Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!
AUSTRALIA
LILY CHONG
Director at IQI WA
+61 415 547 878 lily@iqiwa.com.au
Residential
In the month of May 2021, in Australia, the combined value
of residential real estate surged to $8.4 Trillion. This is since
November 1988, the highest quarterly growth rate on
national home values (7%). Every capital city in Australia
recorded a rapid appreciation in home values, ranging from
3.8% to 9.3% in the past quarter.
Real Estate Institute of Australia has released a media statement that the housing affordability improved in
Sydney, remained steady in Perth but declined in Melbourne.
According to the President of Real Estate Institute of Western Australia, despite strong market conditions,
Perth is still the most affordable state for housing and rental. The report found that the proportion of family
income needed to meet loan repayments in WA during the March 2021 quarter was 24.8 per cent, while the
proportion of family income needed to meet rent payments was 18.7 per cent.
The Economist Intelligence Unit
just announced their survey
result for 2021, in which 4 major
cities in Australia are listed as the
Top 10 most livable cities in the
world.
Adelaide is sitting in 3rd place,
Perth the 6th, Melbourne 9th
and Brisbane 10th.
Source: corelogic.com.au, perthnow.com.au, reiwa.com.au Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!
CANADA
YOUSAF IQBAL
Director at IQI Canada
+(1)647 669 9222 yousaf@iqiglobal.com
Toronto
Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 11,951
sales in May 2021 – more than double the result
from May 2020, below the May 2016 record of
12,789, but well above the average May sales of
10,336 for 2010 through 2019.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark
was up by close to 19% year-over-year in May 2021.
The average selling price across all home types was
up by 28.4% year-over-year, reaching a record
$1,108,453. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the
average price increased by 1.1% between April and
May 2021.
Vancouver
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver
is currently $1,172,800, representing a 14 % increase over May 2020 and a 1.5 % increase compared to April
2021.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported residential home sales totalled 4,268 in May 2021, a
187.4 % increase from May 2020, and a 13 % decrease from April 2021. There were 7,125 detached, attached
and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the MLS® in May 2021. This represents a 93.4 % increase
compared to May 2020 and a 10.2 % decrease compared to April 2021.
The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® is 10,970, a 10.5 % increase compared to
May 2020 and a 7.1 % increase compared to April 2021.
Montreal Metropolitan Area
Source: apciq.ca, communications.torontomls.net Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!
DUBAI
OMER ALI KHAN
Director at IQI Dubai
+971 555 198 733 omer@iqiproperties.com
Dubai posts property deals
worth Dh.36b in 2021
Dubai’s real estate sector recorded 4,832 sales transactions worth
Dh10.98 billion in April 2021, the highest value in four years,
specifically since March 2017.
April transactions were up 4.2 per cent compared to March and 0.6
per cent more in terms of value. This brings the year to April total to
16,577 sales transactions worth Dh36.12 billion, according to the 14th
edition of Mo’asher, Dubai’s official sales price index, launched by
Dubai Land Department (DLD), in cooperation with Property Finder.
In April, 70 per cent of the total transactions were up to Dh2 million,
23 per cent were between Dh2 million and Dh5 million, 4.0 per cent
were between Dh5 million and Dh10 million and 3.0 per cent above
Dh 10 million.
While off-plan sales rose 12.9 per cent, the highest in 14 months, the
month saw 60 per cent of transactions in the secondary/ready
market segment and 40 per cent in the off-plan category.
Apartment sales also accounted for 69 per cent of the total, and 31 per cent for villa/townhouse sales. When
we look at the volume of transactions, the off-plan market transacted 1,934 properties worth Dh3.09 billion,
and the secondary market transacted 2,898 properties worth Dh7.89 billion. Comparing this to March 2021, the
number of off-plan sales transactions in April increased by 12.9 per cent, and the secondary/ready property
transactions decreased for the first time in 11 months by 0.92 per cent, said the report.
However, this strong performance is not uniform across all communities, with some areas still displaying price
weakness. Given this uneven performance, the strong double-digit increases recorded in certain communities
are likely to slow in momentum as the recovery switches to a more sustainable pace across Dubai as a whole.
The lifestyle, safety and business-friendly environments are key pull factors, and the post-Covid tax bill in
many countries will act as a key push factor. These are buyers looking at Dubai as a long-term base and have
been fuelling the over Dh10 million market with waterfront villas with high demand. At 4,879 transaction
volume, April recorded a month-on-month increase of just over 6.0 per cent and a year-on-year increase of
167.4 per cent. It is crucial to consider the low base figure of April 2020 when movement restrictions were in
place, impacting transaction volumes. Yet, April 2021 transactions represent the highest number of
transactions this year and the highest since November 2019 when 5,009 sales were recorded, said the report.
With new launches now gradually resuming and developers keen to introduce more projects, it remains to be
seen when consumer demand for off-plan properties will return strongly and overtake demand for ready
properties.
Source: Khaleej Times Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!
MALAYSIA
NICHOLAS TAN
Property Investment Strategist at IQI
+6 012-393 3405 info@iqiglobal.com
Residential
The Ministry of Finance has agreed to extend the
residential home stamp duty exemption scheme under
the Home Ownership Campaign (HOC) for six months
until Dec 31, 2021.
The HOC is the stamp duty exemption on the Instrument
of Transfer and loan agreement to Dec 31, 2021, from
May 31, 2021, for all residential properties registered
under HOC 2020/2021.
The stamp duty exemption on Instrument of Transfer is
applicable for all residential home purchases from the
value of RM300,000 to RM2.5 million, with the first RM1
million to enjoy a 100% waiver, while the balance is
charged 3%.
Another waiver is a 100% stamp duty exemption on the
loan agreement, given to residential home purchases
valued from RM300,000 to RM2.5 million.
The residential segment recorded 52,273 transactions worth RM19.66 billion, forming 54.4% of the total
transactions volume of 80,694, valued at RM36.12 billion.
The government implemented Full Movement Control (FMCO) will increase the unemployment rate and
affect the economy. This will affect the property market and slightly decrease transactions. The industry
players believe that the extended HOC scheme could help save up to 4% of purchase cost, thus potentially
spurring consumer sentiment.
Sources: NAPIC Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!
PHILIPPINES
EMMANUEL ANDREW VENTURINA
Vice President at IQI Philippines
+632 878 0755 drew@iqicaliver.com
GDP Flash | Jabs Key to Jumpstarting
Property Recovery
The Philippines economy contracted for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q1 2021. This was primarily due to a
surge in COVID-19 cases and the reimposition of lockdown restrictions. Credit rating firms and multilateral
lenders have downgraded their economic forecasts for 2021. Colliers believes that the economy’s recovery is
likely to depend on the success of the vaccine rollout. Economic recovery should have a positive impact on the
country’s property sector in 2022.
Tenants should take advantage of the tenant-favourable office market by implementing blend-and-extend
strategies or securing lower rental rates in exchange for longer lease terms. Residential developers should also
seize opportunities in the market by tapping demand from the overseas Filipino market. Meanwhile, mall
operators should continue accelerating omnichannel strategies and converting and repurposing vacant physical
retail spaces.
Ortigas Land begins work on The Empress
Ortigas Land has started the construction of the 56-floor The Empress condominium in Pasig City. The project
will likely have 51 residential floors, retail spaces and amenities such as lounge areas and pools. The Empress will
also be offering 771 studio to two-bedroom units, ranging from 30 to 106 sqm (323 to 1,140 sqft). New features of
the project include smart home technology, where residents can control air conditioning temperature and light
fixtures through a mobile app. According to Ortigas Land, the project is scheduled to be completed by Q4 2026.
In Q1 2021, Colliers saw pre-selling launches and take-up reaching 4,400 units and 5,300 units respectively,
down 43% and 53% compared to Q1 2020. Colliers believes that the pandemic-induced disruptions, as well as
subdued office leasing, are likely to have an impact on residential demand. In Q1 2021, we saw a vacancy in the
secondary market reaching 16.3%, up from 15.6% in Q4 2020. We project vacancies rise further to 17.2% by the end
of 2021, a new all-time high. Colliers recommends that developers further explore the viability of the luxury
market and become more innovative with their promotions and payment schemes. In our view, the
government’s vaccination program should also boost investor and end-user residential demand. Developers
should be proactive in lining up new projects to tap pent up demand once market conditions improve.
Retail
Colliers saw retail vacancy across malls in Metro Manila reaching 14% in Q1 2021 from 12.5% in Q3 2020 due to
subdued retail spending and brick-and-mortar stores shutting operations in several regional and super-regional
malls. By the end of 2021, we see vacancy likely to peak at 16%, the highest since 2002 due to the substantial new
retail space and anaemic retail demand. Despite this, Colliers believes that retailers providing essential goods
and services such as food and beverage and healthcare are likely to absorb new retail space over the next 12 to
24 months. In our view, landlords should be more flexible in offering a concession to retailers. Both operators and
retailers should review their online and offline strategies to ensure the continuous absorption of mall space
despite the popularity of online shopping.
Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!THAILAND
SOMSAK CHUTISILP
Director at IQI Thailand
+66 81 909 0599 somsak@iqiglobal.com
Residential
The affordable segment could dominate the new condo supply in Bangkok this year as most developers
are shifting to this market.
More than half of the 4,500 condo units slated to launch in the second quarter this year will have a price tag
of 50,000-100,000 baht per sqm or lower than 2 million baht per unit.
In the first quarter of this year, 3,608 new condo units from 10 projects worth a combined 22.3 billion baht
launched in Bangkok, down 38.6% from the same period last year.
This decrease was attributed to developers shifting to low-rise houses and condo development in other
provinces, such as Chon Buri and Rayong, he said.
Some 46% of new supply in the first quarter was in city fringe locations or near new mass transit lines under
construction.
The best seller in the first quarter were units priced between 100,000-150,000 baht/sqm.
Office
Given the renewed spread of the COVID-19 in Thailand in April 2021, it has become inevitable for corporates
to switch back to work-from-home for the third time in a year. Many office occupiers across Bangkok
metropolitan areas have right sized their spaces and withheld their expansion or relocation plans due to the
uncertainty.
Demand for office spaces gradually shifts from fixed desks to having a desk for activities, collaborations, and
communal areas. As a result, we witnessed most office spaces shrinking to optimise space.
Over 2 million sqm of occupied space, or 38% of occupiers in the Bangkok metropolitan area, have been in
the same place for more than fifteen years. Their capital expenditures on existing spaces have been paid off,
with one-third located in the CBD.
The ageing office spaces are no longer considered efficient, as young talents seek to work at places with
wellness offerings and flexibility to work remotely.
Retail
As of Q1 2021, 0.7 million sqm of the net leasable retail area was under construction in Bangkok. The new retail
developments expected to be complete after Q1 2021 were Terminal 21 Harbour, and The Nine Tiwanon.
Major retail developers reported decreases in their revenue during Q1 2021. Domestic consumption has
continued to weaken since 2020, together with the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak at the end of Q4 2020.
The total retail supply in Bangkok increased to 7.8 million sqm, an increase of 1.2% Y-o-Y.
The overall occupancy rate decreased by 0.6 percentage point to 95.3% in Q1 2021.
Thailand’s consumer confidence index decreased to 48.5 in March 2021, a decline of 3.6% Y-o-Y.
The retail sales index, according to the Bank of Thailand, was at 249.9 in February 2021, increasing by 3.5
points or a 1.4% Y-o-Y increase.
There was over 1.37 million sqm of retail space either being planned or under construction.
Source: bangkokpost.com, jll.co.th, cbre.co.th Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!INDIA
PANKAZ JAIIN
CEO at IQI India
+9717497378 info@iqiindia.com
FDI Continuous to Grow in India
India’s FDI jumps 10% in FY21, reaching the highest level at $81.72 bn.
It is a 10 per cent rise on a year-on-year basis, as per the latest data provided by the commerce and
industry ministry.
Gujarat has emerged as the top FDI destination, accounting for 37 per cent of the total inflows. Maharashtra
(27 per cent) and Karnataka (13 per cent) were second and third in terms of inflows received.
The top investors who contributed to India’s high FDI inflow in FY21 include Singapore (29 per cent),
followed by the US (23 per cent) and Mauritius (9 per cent).
Residential
Model tenancy act, 2021
A new Model Tenancy Act (MTA) was approved by the Union cabinet on 2nd June 2021.
The main trigger for this is the 1.1 crore vacant houses found locked and empty in the 2011 census. This
number must have risen in the past ten years. This model law now has to be accepted and adopted by all
the states and Union territories which will notify the law according to their state’s requirements.
The MTA will unlock vacant houses for renting purposes and promote private participation in addressing
the housing shortage.
Real Estate trends to watch out for during Covid-19 second wave
While there were signs of a significant revival in the property market in the first quarter of 2021, we have seen
a momentary halt in an upward trajectory. The residential real estate market saw a steady rise in sales and
launches from January to March 2021. This is 44% more than the same quarter last year, the report said.
Furthermore, the report said that Mumbai and Pune led the table in both launches and sales due to discounts
in stamp duty charges.
Office
Post COVID-19, as with most other components of the work environment, the traditional parameters of a
client’s budget and requirements are also witnessing a change. Most corporates are now looking to weave
in more flexibility and remote work options. This has resulted in heavier investment in technology for
collaboration, video conferencing and a palpable shift towards the concept of smart buildings.
In the coming years, many companies are likely to implement some level of remote working and outfit their
offices with ample technology.
Corporates are also likely to realign their worksites, keeping in mind the growing need for deploying
technology and conforming with social distancing norms. Therefore, we anticipate substantial growth in
the use of touchless technologies, efficient sanitisation equipment, air and water management systems,
etc.
Source: www.cbre.co.in, www.indiatoday.in Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!MONGOLIA
AMARTUVSHIN ARIUNBOLD
Head Of Country Juwai IQI Mongolia
+976 99998333 amartuvshin@juwaiiqi.com
Ruling Party Leader Wins the
Presidential Election, Promising
Political Stability
Former Mongolian Prime Minister Khurelsukh Ukhnaa became the country's sixth democratically elected
president, further consolidating the power of the ruling Mongolian People's Party (MPP) with a landslide
victory. Currently, the Mongolian government is implementing an expanded lending program to accelerate
economic recovery after the Covid-19 related downturn. It is expected that with a more consolidated power,
the ruling party is to keep mortgage lending criteria looser, which will keep real estate demand high.
The coverage of government support has increased, with many businesses expecting to receive it soon.
Two-thirds of businesses have received or expect some form of government support, up from 47 per cent in
August 2020. This is mostly due to an increase in expectations; 26 per cent of businesses are expecting
support in the next three months, up from 12 per cent in August 2020. The government appears to use many
levers of support, with some targeting construction firms, which are in need of extra cash flow.
Office market upward trend continues
Business activity is projected to
recover sharply, with Mongolia
having vaccinated 100 per cent
of its population by June of 2021.
DCG Mongolia’s market analysts
predict by the end of the year
office prices will reach 4 million
tugriks /1,403 USD/ per square
meter.
Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!VIETNAM
NGUYEN NGOC THIEN AN
Sales Director at IQI Vietnam
+84 792 966 008 an.nguyen@iqiglobal.com
Residential
The newest report by HSBC notes that property prices, especially in the luxury segment in Vietnam’s big cities,
have increased over the past two years.
Last year, prices of luxury apartments climbed up 9 per cent year-on-year, while those in the affordable and
mid-end segments rose 4-5 per cent.
The market share of high-end and luxury segments surged to over 70 per cent in 2020 from below 30 per cent
in 2019.
The average price of residential property is forecasted to continue increasing on an average of 4% towards the
end of 2021. The price will go up by 7% due to the extreme increase in raw materials, including steel, which
makes up 60% of a property’s construction material loads. The price of steel has increased by 40-50% as
compared to last year.
Affordable housing and middle-class apartments seem to be disappearing from the market. Citizens have a
hard time finding apartments for their own family at ranges of $120.000 - $150.000. Grade B and C apartments
are so scarce that switching to rent might be a better option for many middle-class families.
Commercial
For the office market, the newest wave of Covid has hit
Vietnam again, and thus we can expect the office rental rate
to drop by at least 4-5%. Many companies have switched to
WFH for another month to come.
Delinquencies on commercial mortgage-backed securities
spiked in 2020, with the late-payment rate for hotels
soaring to 24% in June. Investors brought out their
playbooks from the 2008 financial crisis when property
loans traded for pennies on the dollar. But instead of
forcing borrowers to pay up or refinance at onerous terms,
lenders offered modifications and maturity extensions --
lifelines to await the recovery. Delinquencies declined, and
property prices held up.
Now, troubled properties are in recovery mode as vaccines
liberate people to travel, swarm shopping centres and
return to offices. Consumer spending is forecasted to grow
6.1% in 2021.
Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!SINGAPORE
RAYMOND KHOO
Vice President at OrangeTee and Tie
+65 9067 6151 raymond.khoo@orangetee.com
Residential
Fewer homes were transacted last month as restrictions were further tightened during Singapore’s
heightened alert period. In response to a resurgence of virus infections, stricter measures were imposed
on property sales galleries and house viewings such as having no more than two persons per group
(including salesperson) for property viewings.
According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) sales survey, new home sales dipped by 29.7 per
cent from 1,268 units in April to 891 units in May. Compared to a year ago, new sales jumped by 83.0 per
cent.
However, the drop in sales volume was not as drastic as a year earlier during the "circuit breaker period".
During the first month of the movement restrictions, only 277 new transactions were recorded in April 2020,
tumbling by 58.0 per cent from 660 units in March 2020. Comparatively, last month’s new home sales were
221.7 per cent higher than the 277 units sold in April 2020.
The Outside of Central Region (OCR) formed the bulk of new home purchases last month (45.0 per cent),
followed by the Rest of Central Region (RCR, 33.6 per cent) and the Core Central Region (CCR, 21.4 per
cent).
The best-selling projects were One
Bernam, Treasure at Tampines, Normanton
Park, Midwood, Affinity at Serangoon and
The Florence Residences.
As more mass market and city fringe new
homes were sold last month, the
proportion of lower quantum units below
S$1.5 million rose from 41.1 per cent in April
to 46.4 per cent in May 2021, according to
URA Realis data. The proportion of new
homes sold for at least $3 million continued
to rise from 5.5 per cent in March, to 6.6 per
cent in April and further to 7.7 per cent in
May. 10 units were sold for at least S$10
million, the highest monthly sales since
March 2019 (10 units). Nine of these units
were at Park Nova and one unit from
Meyerhouse.
Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!CAMBODIA
CHANDY MANN
Head of Country at IQI Cambodia
+(855) 88 841 8741 mannchandy@iqiglobal.com
IMF expects Cambodia's economy
to grow 6% in 2022
Phnom Penh
Yasuhisa Ojima, the representative of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the IMF
expects the Cambodian economy to grow by 6% in
2022, while this year it is expected to grow by 4.2%.
The IMF representative made the remarks during a
panel discussion on the first CEO Forum for 2021,
entitled "Expectations of the Economic Recovery
from Covid-19 in Cambodia and in the ASEAN region
organized by the Association of Banks in Cambodia
and in collaboration with the IMF online (Zoom). "The
IMF expects the Cambodian economy to grow 4.2
per cent this year and 6 per cent in 2022 after a 3.5
per cent contraction in 2020," said Yasuhisa Ojima.
"Growth forecasts will be revised to reflect the
recent increase of Covid-19, especially after the
February 20th community event." Mr Ojima added
that the financial sector looked stable due to policy measures with easing of financial conditions, including
(LPCO, low-reserve requirements) and allowing credit restructuring until the end of 2021. Uncertainty persists
in the economy, especially in the real estate and construction sectors, some of which are not in the banking
system, and in the tourism sector.
He stressed that as long as policy uncertainty persists, the level of capital allocation restrictions will be
guaranteed with the utmost caution.
Dr In Channy also said that the time of this discussion is at a time of economic crisis, as the National Bank of
Cambodia has just postponed the mechanism of reorganization of the banking and financial sector until the
end of the year 2021. Therefore, all financial institutions still need to understand "how the Cambodian economy
will develop in the coming years."
"Because many clients of banking and financial institutions have difficulty repaying their loans, about 12 per
cent of all loans have been reorganized," he added. "Economic recovery is very important for customers who
take out loans from banks and financial institutions."
"The understanding and forecast of the IMF will definitely help our institution to organize and ensure the
long-term stability and prosperity of our sector," he added.
Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!TURKEY
BERRAK OZOLTU
Head of Country at IQI Turkey
+90 531 704 57 99 berrak@iqiglobal.com
Residential
Housing sales across Turkey increased by 16.2% in May compared to the same month of the previous year
and became 59,166. Istanbul had the highest share in house sales with 11,356 houses. According to the
number of sales, Istanbul was followed by Ankara with 5,653 house sales and 9.6% share, and İzmir with
3,298 house sales and 5.6% share.
Despite the curfew in the first half of May, house sales to foreigners increased by 106.5% compared to the
same month of the previous year and became 1,776. In the housing sales to foreigners, Istanbul took the
first place in May, Istanbul was followed by Antalya and Ankara.
Commercial
On the commercial market, two areas of focus are eye-catching in the Turkish market which are logistics
investment and shopping mall investments.
According to the high demand and increase in e-commerce logistics, since Turkey has a strategic location
advantage by reaching over %55 of the world within less than 3 hours, it continues to be an important
logistics hub for many companies. Since the growth of the e-commerce sector in Turkey and the increase
of almost %40-50 each year, as we have seen in the previous years, investments like Alibaba and Amazon
will continue to grow in the Turkish market.
2020 year-end, the total logistics supply in the Marmara region, including the Istanbul and Kocaeli
sub-markets was recorded as 10.40 million sqm.
There is also a 6.64 million sqm non-owner-occupied logistics supply, which was constructed for the
purpose of lease and/or sale.
In 2020, 318k sqm logistics leasing transaction was realized.
On the other hand, the second important investment area which is the shopping mall market showed
significant numbers in Turkey.
As of Q4 2020, the existing shopping centre supply reached the level of 13.6 million sqm in 447 centres, and
Istanbul hosts the majority of the supply with a share of 37%.
Currently, there are c. 960k sqm GLA in 29 centres under construction, adding up to c. 14.6 million sqm
supply by the end of 2022.
Other than these two areas the hotel investments are expected to be increased by the end of 2021.
Source: tuik.gov.tr, jll.com.tr, colliers.com, gyoder.org.tr Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!PORTUGAL
GONÇALO PEREIRA
CEO of IQI Portugal
+351 910 943 233 goncalo@iqiglobal.com
The success of the European vaccination process, the low infection rates per 100,000 inhabitants, and the
lesser mobility restrictions in Europe are currently the main drivers for investors to resume their interest in the
country, predictably bringing their will to invest in tourism-related projects, boosting one of the engines of the
national economy. Although news at the beginning of the month of June about Portugal being on the UK’s
Amber list may have shaken business owners in the Algarve, tourism activities may still grow in the following
months with the arrival of other tourists that are recognizing Portugal as a safe destination and the best beach
place in the world (according to the latest recognition from the World Travel Awards).
Hotels & Resorts
The hotel and resorts market is increasingly showing its resilience as the tourism sector begins to recover.
Porto: Grupo Mercan, together with 160 Vistos Gold invested €56-million in a new hotel in Porto, The
Renaissance Park Hotel, that is expected to have 163 rooms, an area of about 14,000 square meters, a
panoramic outdoor swimming pool on the top floor with a bar, a 250-seat restaurant and a congress center
for up to 600 people.
Algarve: The Group Pontos (owner and developer of the Ombria Resort) started the construction of the
€30-million Villas Alcedo, located on a plot adjacent to the Viceroy at Ombria Resort hotel.
Lisbon: The group Sana Hotels has invested 238 million euros in the Portuguese capital, with projects such
as the SANA Marquês hotel; a major project in Rua do Ouro in downtown Lisbon, that involves the
rehabilitation of two blocks; The restoration of Convento da Graça (in its licensing phase) that involves
rehabilitating the old convent into a five-star hotel with 147 rooms.
Alentejo: Grupo Mercan announced a 21 million euros investment in the new Hilton Garden Inn, in Évora,
less than 10 minutes away from the historic city center, occupying an area of more than eight thousand
square meters which will include 130 rooms, a rooftop pool with bar, a restaurant, gym, and a meeting
room for up to 130 people.
Residential
In the capital city, The Residences at Hyatt Regency Lisbon continue to take shape. This 200-apartment
aparthotel hybrid is located in Belém - a unique location on the banks of the Tejo River near the most
important museums and historical monuments of the city - and offers a guaranteed return on investment
of 5% per year for the first 5 years.
In Porto, Fervença Palace is an upcoming development of lofts and townhouses located on the banks of
the Douro River, close to the main Porto attractions. This development consists of the rehabilitation of an
18th-century building that preserves many of its unique architectural features and offers units starting at
308.800€, with the option of coming with a fixed return.
Source: auraree.com, dinheirovivo.pt,idealista.pt Visit www.iqiglobal.com now for more information!Juwai IQI Moments The ADAPT International Convention will once again be virtually back this December 2021! With the ADAPT International convention 2020 being an astounding success with over 240,000 viewers, 280 speakers in 35 languages, more than 32 partnerships worldwide and an overwhelming support from viewers worldwide, this year will be even better with more passion, teamwork and even bigger collaborations.
You can also read
