OBSERVER Dubai Market Report Q1 / 2019 - Shamal ...
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OBSERVER Dubai Market Report Q1 / 2019
Services Report Highlights
Valuations
Sales prices Values. Transactions involving completed properties
Mortgage and Secured Lending
showed an increase in values of 5% from AED 5.39 billion in
Portfolio Valuations The downward price corrections witnessed throughout Q4 2018 to AED 5.64 billion in Q1 2019. Additionally, there
2018 continued in Q1 2019, albeit at a slightly slower was a significant uplift in values for off-plan properties of
Advisory and Research pace than witnessed in Q4 2018. Average apartment sales 35%, from AED 5.82 billion in Q4 2018 to AED 7.85 billion
Financial Feasibilities prices were down 3% from the last quarter, while average in Q1 2019.
villa prices were down 1% from Q4 2018.
Highest and Best Use Studies Market outlook
Market Research Rental rates
Conceptual Advisory and Project Positioning Studies Over 20,000 new residential units were delivered in 2018
Project Redevelopment/Repositioning Advisory As in previous quarters, we witnessed a continued and the projections for 2019 are for a similar or even
downward pressure on rents in Q1 2019. This is a higher number (est. 25,000 to 30,000 units), as many of
Investment Strategies – Acquisition and Disposal
consequence of additional supply being added to the the 2014-16 off-plan projects will be delivered. This will
market, thus offering more choice to the potential tenant. ensure Dubai’s residential market remains highly occupier
Sales and Leasing Average rents saw a further 2% decrease in the apartment and buyer friendly, due to the wide variety of options
Commercial and villa markets from Q4 2018. available at competitive prices/rates.
Industrial
Transactions
Residential
Retail Volumes. The completed unit market witnessed a small
decline in transactional volumes in Q1 2019 with a 1%
Property/Facilities Management decrease compared with Q4 2018, from 3,278 to 3,230
units. In contrast, the volume of off-plan transactions
Commercial was up 10% on Q4 2018. Perhaps this figure is even more
Mixed-Use significant given the 33% increase in volumes in Q4 2018
Residential when compared with Q3 2018.
International Properties
London Off-Plan Residential
International Homes and Investments
International Relocations
Residential Market Q1 2019 Snapshot
Price Movements Completed Unit Transactions
Apartments Villas Volumes Values
QoQ −3% QoQ −1% QoQ -1% QoQ +5%
Rental Movements Off-Plan Unit Transactions
Apartments Villas Volumes Values
QoQ −2% QoQ −2% QoQ +10% QoQ +35%
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 1
Further price declines witnessed in Q1, however
off-plan sales remain strong
The downward price corrections witnessed throughout 2018 service charges and guaranteed rental returns. It is also worth
continued in Q1 2019, albeit at a slightly slower pace than noting that off-plan inventories are largely focused on the
witnessed in Q4 2018. Average apartment sales prices were affordable, mid-market options, which is likely to be having a
down 3% from the last quarter, while average villa prices were positive effect on absorption rates.
down 1% from Q4 2018.
However perhaps more interestingly, in locations where the
Off-plan sales continued to dominate the market in Q1, which largest amount of transactions have taken place in Q1, such
indicates the incentives offered by developers are having the as MBR City, it is clear there is a growing demand for more
desired effect. These incentives include 5-year post-handover innovative living solutions. More information is included later
payment plans, the rebate of registration fees, freezing property in this report.
HOT TOPIC
Co-living spaces are set to change the face of Dubai’s off-plan residential market as their popularity gains pace. Simply put, the
concept of co-living spaces is focused around the buyer or tenant being able to live and work in the same location; a detail which is
important for many who do not want to be caught up in a long daily commute. As such, developers are now creating spaces that
address the business and leisure requirements of residents, all in one development. In terms of the more established communities,
Dubai Silicon Oasis has had success with co-living and co-working spaces as has Tecom with its Internet and Media Cities and
Knowledge Village. More recently, Nshama launched UNA located at the Town Square community and Emaar, The Collective and
Socio at MBR City.
Apartments: Quarter-on-Quarter movement: (–3%) Villas: Quarter-on-Quarter movement: (–1%)
Prices of apartments in Downtown, Dubailand, Dubai Motor Market sentiment in the villa community of The Lakes remained
City and Dubai Silicon Oasis continued to remain resilient in the most positive, as there was no movement in prices from Q4
Q1, with these locations witnessing no price movement since 2018. In contrast to the previous quarter, The Meadows and
the previous quarter. Small declines were seen in the Views Springs communities witnessed the highest price declines of
and Discovery Gardens with a 1% decrease from Q4 2018. The 4%. Small price declines were seen in Jumeirah Park with a 1%
highest declines were witnessed in International City, Dubai decrease, whilst Palm Jumeirah and Arabian Ranches both
Sports City and Business Bay, all with a 7% decrease in prices witnessed a 2% decline from Q4 2018.
since Q4 2018.
Over 80% of the new stock delivered in 2018 was apartments,
with a similar ratio set to be handed over in 2019. This
might explain the consistently higher rate of price decline for
apartments, as opposed to villas, given the greater level of
supply on the market.
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 2
Apartments and Villas − Residential Sales Prices and Quarterly Change
The World The Palm Deira
Arabian Gulf
Dubai
The Palm
Jebel Ali
-6%
Waterfront Q-o-Q
921
Movement
1,153
DUBAI
MARINA
-3% 977 JUMEIRAH
LAKE TOWERS
897 -4%
Q-o-Q
Q-o-Q
Movement
JUMEIRAH
LAKE TOWERS
-2%
1,185
THE MEADOWS Movement Q-o-Q
Movement
2,035 1,984
DUBAI
627 936
THE MEADOWS
MARINA
Palm Jumeirah
PALM
JUMEIRAH PALM
JUMEIRAH Dubai
DISCOVERY Maritime
GARDENS City
Bluewater
-1%
636
Islands
Q-o-Q
Jumeirah Beach
Residence
925 0%
965
Movement Q-o-Q
DISCOVERY Movement
GARDENS Dubai Marina Dubai Pearl THE GREENS
Umm Suqeim Jumeirah Satwa Bur Dubai
Media Internet
1,511
THE GREENS Burjuman Hamriya
-4% 1,515 DOWNTOWN
City City Badaa Centre
897
Ibn Battuta JLT Sufouh Al Wasl Deira Wuheida
Jumeirah Greens Safa
Mall The Q-o-Q Manara Umm Mamzar
Gardens Heights Emirates TECOM Movement DOWNTOWN
Trade Hurair
Jebel Ali Freezone DIFC
Hills Centre Karama Hor Al Anz
936
Jebel Ali Meadows Deira City
THE SPRINGS
1,197
Discovery Mall of the Emirates
Al Quoz Dubai Mall Oud Centre
Downtown Village Gardens Jumeirah The Views Zabeel Metha
Jebel Ali
-4% Islands The Lakes Barsha Al Nahda
1,209
THE SPRINGS Jumeirah THE VIEWS
Q-o-Q The Springs Barsha
Movement Park
Al Furjan Garhoud Sharjah
Abu Dhabi
-1%
1,103
THE VIEWS Airport
Al Khail
Q-o-Q Gate Free Zone
Culture Twar
Qusais
0%
868 1,114
Movement Village
Technology Park -1% -4%
THE LAKES
Q-o-Q
Q-o-Q Green
Movement Jumeirah
Q-o-Q Movement BUSINESS BAY Umm
Community
JUMEIRAH Ramool
Movement International
Golf Bu Kadra
PARK Estates Media
1,107 0% 1,038
859 759
713
Dubai
728 -7%
Production Meydan Dubai
Investment Zone(IMPZ) Q-o-Q City Festival City
Park
JUMEIRAH THE LAKES
Movement Q-o-Q BUSINESS BAY
JUMEIRAH JUMEIRAH Dubiotech Movement
VILLAGE Sports Nadd
MOTOR CITY
713
Dubai PARK VILLAGE CIRCLE City Ras Al Khor Shamma Muhaisnah
CIRCLE
-7% 0%
World Motor
703
Central City
Nadd
Q-o-Q MOTOR CITY Q-o-Q
Al Hammar
Movement Movement
-7% Mirdif City
737 793
Centre
Arabian DUBAI SILICON
704
Al Barari Q-o-Q
Ranches OASIS Mirdif
0% Living Legends Movement
840 860
Ghoroob Mizar
SPORTS CITY SPORTS CITY Q-o-Q
Movement
Al Waha
Community
DUBAI SILICON
OASIS Nad Al Sheba 516
Warqaa
481
Shorooq
722 725
ARABIAN Dragon Mart
INTERNATIONAL
INTERNATIONAL
Layan RANCHES ARABIAN CITY
International CITY
RANCHES City
DUBAILAND DUBAILAND Dubailand
+2% Dubai
Silicon Oasis
Khwaneej
Q-o-Q Awir
Movement Academic
City
Figures in AED/Sq Ft Villa Sales Q4 2018 Villa Sales Q1 2019 Apartment Sales Q4 2018 Apartment Sales Q1 2019 QoQ Movement
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 4 The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 5
450,000 0%
400,000
Supply continues to be a major factor causing Villas − Residential Market Rent and Quarterly Change
350,000 -1%
PERCENTAGE CHANGE PERCENTAGE CHANGE
downward corrections in the rental market
AED RENTAL RATES
300,000
-2%
250,000
As in previous quarters, there was continued downward Apartments: Quarter-on-Quarter movement: (– 2%) 200,000
450,000 0%
pressure on rents in Q1 2019. This was a consequence of -3%
150,000
400,000
additional supply being added to the market, thus offering In the apartment market, the biggest declines were seen in
100,000
350,000 -1%
more choice to potential tenants. Average rents saw a further Dubai Motor City, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai Sports City and -4%
AED RENTAL RATES
2% decrease in the apartment and villa markets from Q4 2018. JLT – all of which witnessed a 4% decline from Q4 2018. Popular 50,000
300,000
established communities, such as Dubai Marina and Business -2%
250,000- -5%
Due to additional stock being available and limited new Bay, have remained resilient with no movement in rates since Arabian The The The Lakes Victory Al Furjan JVT Jumeirah Jumeirah Palm
demand, the most important consideration for landlords in the last quarter. 200,000 Ranches Springs Meadows Heights Islands Golf Estates Jumeirah
-3%
maintaining a decent return on investment is avoiding long 150,000
Figures in AED/Sq Ft 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR QoQ Movement
void periods. This means they have to consider offering not In contrast to findings in the latter part of 2018, where smaller Source: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
100,000 -4%
only lower rental rates but also incentives to attract and retain format apartments and studio apartments were the most
50,000
tenants. Current incentives being offered to tenants include; affected by market adjustments, in Q1 2019 it was 2 and 3 BR
multiple rent cheques (some of which extend to monthly apartments which were most affected with an average 3% - -5%
Arabian The The The Lakes Victory Al Furjan JVT Jumeirah Jumeirah Palm
payments), rent-free periods, waiver of security deposits, decline in rental rates. There was no movement in average Ranches Springs Meadows Heights Islands Golf Estates Jumeirah
multiple cheques to cover utility bills, shorter term leases and in rental rates for studio apartments.
some cases we have witnessed landlords covering the cost of Figures in AED/Sq Ft 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR QoQ Movement
agency fees. Villas: Quarter-on-Quarter movement: (– 2%) Source: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
450,000 0%
Short-term,
400,000 Airbnb style rentals are becoming more popular In the villa market, the biggest rental decline was witnessed in
with landlords as the downward corrections continue in the JVT at 5% from Q4 2018 with the most resilient locations being
350,000 -1% HOT TOPIC
long term rental market. Last year, figures show occupancy Jumeirah Golf Estates, Jumeirah Islands and The Lakes with no
PERCENTAGE CHANGE
Rent-to-Own (RTO) schemes are set to gain momentum in 2019 in Dubai’s residential market. Whilst still in their relative infancy
AED RENTAL RATES
rates were at 65%, across the board, during Dubai’s peak
300,000 movement in rental rates from Q4 2018.
-2% with a number of legal and regulatory issues still to be addressed, it is likely they will boost investor interest and stimulate absorption
season. Such rentals are preferable for those undertaking
250,000 rates as developers can tap into a new buyer segment. A pool of buyers with good salaries but without the cash reserves to afford the
project work or who are on probation, as these individuals are The smallest format 2 BR villa appeared to witness the biggest
200,000 25% down payment. Or those buyers who are unsure about future market trends. We predict this could place further pressure on the
unable to commit to traditional annual rental contracts as the declines with an average 5% decrease in rents from the previous
-3%
150,000
traditional rental market as prospective buyers will opt in favour of this model to avoid getting caught in the ‘rent trap’. RTO deals can
tenancy cannot be registered if the residency visa is still to be quarter.
currently be found in areas such as Jumeirah Village Circle, Palm Jumeirah and Dubai Sports City.
granted.
100,000 -4%
50,000 Figures in AED/Sq Ft Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR QoQ Change
Source: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
Apartments
-
Arabian− Residential
The The
Market Rent andAlQuarterly
The Lakes Victory Furjan JVT
Change
Jumeirah Jumeirah Palm
-5%
Ranches Springs Meadows Heights Islands Golf Estates Jumeirah
250,000 1%
Figures in AED/Sq Ft 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR QoQ Movement
Source: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
Figures in AED/Sq Ft Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR QoQ Change 0%
200,000
Source: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
PERCENTAGE CHANGE PERCENTAGE CHANGE
AED RENTAL RATES AED RENTAL RATES
-1%
150,000
250,000 1%
-2%
100,000 0%
200,000
-3%
-1%
50,000
150,000 -4%
-2%
- -5%
100,000
Business Bay DIFC Discovery Downtown Dubai Marina Dubai Dubai Dubailand International JLT JVC The Greens The Views Dubai
Gardens Dubai Silicon Oasis Sports City City Motor City -3%
50,000
Figures in AED/Sq Ft 1BR 2BR 3BR QoQ Change -4%
Studio
Source: Propertyfinder & Chestertons
-
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 6 The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 -5% 7
Business Bay DIFC Discovery Downtown Dubai Marina Dubai Dubai Dubailand International JLT JVC The Greens The Views Dubai
Gardens Dubai Silicon Oasis1% Sports City City Motor City
Off-plan sales dominated the market in Q1, Volume of Residential Transactions Q1 2019 (Number of Units)
where demand is being seen for innovative
living solutions
6,000
Overall, transactional activity was on the rise in the first quarter In contrast, the volume of off-plan transactions was up 10% on Q4
of 2019. However, going forward, interest rate hikes could pose 2018. Perhaps this figure is even more significant given the 33% 5,000
a potential threat to investors in the UAE. In October 2018, the increase in volumes in Q4 2018 compared with Q3 2018. This 4,965
FED increased interest rates by 25 basis points, with another could be due to the attractive incentives offered by developers to 4,000 4,514
hike taking place in December 2018. As the Dirham is pegged entice buyers - coupled with the fact that inventories are mostly
to the US dollar, interest rates rose in the Emirates as well. Two focused on mid-market, affordable properties, as well as options 3,000 3,278 Completed Properties
3,230
additional rate hikes are expected in the US during 2019, which for more innovative living solutions. Off-plan
2,000
will immediately correlate to interest rate increases in the UAE.
Dubailand continued to be the most popular community in terms 1,000 6,000
Q1 data suggests high demand for certain off-plan projects. The of ready unit transaction volumes as it was in Q4 2018 and MBR Figures in AED/Sq Ft
highest performing of which, in terms of volumes, was at MBR. City was the most popular off-plan location. 0 5,000 Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
Q4 2018 Q1 2019
From the total number of all transactions which took place in Q1 4,965
at MBR, just over 70% were for Emaar projects; with Collective Transaction Values 4,000 4,514
Tower and Socio at Dubai Hills representing most of those sales.
3,000 3,278 Completed Propertie
Both of these projects are centered on co-living spaces. These Quarter-on-Quarter Movement (Completed Units): +5% 3,230
spaces are aimed at a younger buyer and tenant profile offering Quarter-on-Quarter Movement (Off-Plan Units): +35% Figures in AED/Sq Ft Completed Properties Off-plan
2,000
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons Off-plan
an all-inclusive, holistic living space where they can live and work
within the same neighbourhood. Transactions involving completed properties showed an increase HOT TOPIC
1,000
in values of 5% from AED 5.39 billion in Q4 2018 to AED 5.64 Dubai Land Department (DLD) has announced new plans to secure Foreign Direct Investment into the UAE which could
Figures have a Ft
in AED/Sq
Of Dubai’s existing residential projects, Dubailand, Dubai billion in Q1 2019. Additionally, there was a significant uplift in 0 Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
significant impact on both transaction volumes and values. This includes promoting UAE real estate to prospective Chinese investors,
Marina and Palm Jumeirah continued to show consistent sales values for off-plan properties of 35% from AED 5.82 billion in Q4 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
with the goal of attracting at least AED 1 billion of inward property investment from this source market in 2019. This goal is being
performance, in terms of volume of units transacted throughout 2018 to AED 7.85 billion in Q1 2019. supported by the DLD offices in Beijing and Shanghai with a third office opening in Shenzhen in the near future. Freehold ownership,
Q1. high rental yields, affordability and tax-free investments will play a key role in driving Chinese investment into the UAE. Russia and
Palm Jumeirah was the most popular location in terms of India are the other key markets being targeted by the DLD.
Transaction Volumes completed unit transaction values at AED 817 million and Figures in AED/Sq Ft Completed Properties Off-plan
Downtown Dubai for off-plan units at AED 1.9 billion. Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
Quarter-on-Quarter Movement (Completed Units): -1%
Quarter-on-Quarter Movement (Off-Plan Units): +10% 5.64
7.85
The market for completed units witnessed a small decline in Value of Residential Transactions Q1 2019 (AED Billions)
transactional volumes in Q1 2019 with a 1% decrease compared
with Q4 2018, from 3,278 to 3,230 units. 6,000
5,000
4,965
4,000 4,514
3,000 3,278 Completed Properties
3,230 5.64
7.85
2,000 Off-plan
1,000
Figures in AED/Sq Ft
0 Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Figures in AED/Sq Ft Completed Properties Off-plan
Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 8 The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 9
Q1 2019 Sales Transactions Q1 2019 Sales Transactions
Completed Units Off-plan Units
Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Volumes (Number of Units) Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Volumes (Number of Units)
Dubailand
Dubailand MBR
MBR City
City
Dubailand
Dubailand
Dubai MBR City
MBR City
Dubai Marina
Marina Dubailand
Dubailand
Dubai Marina
Dubai
Palm Marina Dubailand
Dubailand
Palm Jumeirah
Jumeirah Downtown
Downtown Dubai
Dubai
Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah
International Downtown
Downtown Dubai
Dubai
Business Bay
International City
City Business Bay
InternationalCircle
International
Jumeirah City
City Business
Business
The Bay
Bay
The Lagoons
Jumeirah Village
Village Circle Lagoons
Jumeirah Village
Jumeirah Village Circle
BusinessCircle The
The Lagoons
Lagoons
Dubai South
Business Bay
Bay Dubai South
Business Bay
Business
Dubai Bay Dubai
Dubai
Dubai South
South
Harbour
Dubai Sports
Sports City
City Dubai Harbour
Dubai Sports
Dubai Sports City
Downtown City Dubai
Dubai
Jumeirah LakeHarbour
LakeHarbour
Towers
Downtown Dubai
Dubai Jumeirah Towers
Downtown
Downtown
Emirates Dubai
Dubai JumeirahVillage
Jumeirah
Jumeirah Lake Towers
Lake Towers
Circle
Emirates Living
Living Jumeirah Village Circle
Emirates
Emirates
Al Living
Living JumeirahDubai
Jumeirah Village
Village Circle
Circle
Marina
Al Furjan
Furjan Dubai Marina
Al Furjan
Al Furjan Dubai Marina
Dubai Marina 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
50
50 100
100 150
150 200
200 250
250 300
300 350
350 400
400 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Source:
50
50 100
100 150
150 200
200 250
250 300
300 350
350 400
400 200
200 400
400 600
600 800
800 1000
1000 1200
1200 1400
1400
Source: REIDIN
REIDIN &
& Chestertons
Chestertons Source:
Source: REIDIN
REIDIN &
& Chestertons
Chestertons
Source: REIDIN
Source: REIDIN &
& Chestertons
Chestertons Source: REIDIN
Source: REIDIN &
& Chestertons
Chestertons
Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Values (in million AED) Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Values (in million AED)
Palm
Palm Jumeirah
Jumeirah Downtown
Downtown Dubai
Dubai
Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah
MBR Downtown
Downtown
MBRDubai
Dubai
City
MBR City
City MBR City
MBR City
MBR City
MBR City
Dubailand
Dubailand TheMBR
The City
Lagoons
Lagoons
Dubailand
Dubailand
Dubai Marina The
The Lagoons
Lagoons
Dubailand
Dubai Marina Dubailand
Dubai Marina
Dubai Marina
Emirates Living Dubailand
Dubailand
Dubai Harbour
Emirates Living Dubai Harbour
Emirates Dubai
Emirates
Downtown Living
Living Dubai
Dubai Harbour
Harbour
Business Bay
Downtown Dubai Business Bay
Downtown
Downtown Dubai
Dubai
Business Bay Business
Business
Dubai Bay
Bay
Marina
Business Bay Dubai Marina
Business Bay Dubai
Dubai Marina
Business
Arabian
Arabian Bay
Ranches
Ranches DubaiMarina
Dubai South
South
Arabian Al
Arabian Ranches
Ranches
Al Furjan
Furjan Dubai
Dubai
Palm South
South
Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah
Jumeirah Al Furjan
Al
Jumeirah Village
Village Furjan
Circle
Circle Palm
Palm
Jumeirah Jumeirah
Jumeirah
Village Circle
Jumeirah Village Circle
Jumeirah Village
Jumeirah Village Circle
Circle 200 400 600 800 1,000 Jumeirah Village
Jumeirah Village Circle
Circle 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
200 400 600 800 1,000 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Source:
Source: REIDIN
REIDIN &
& Chestertons
Chestertons 200
200 400
400 600
600 800
800 1,000
1,000 Source:
Source: REIDIN
REIDIN &
& Chestertons
Chestertons 500
500 1000
1000 1500
1500 2000
2000 2500
2500
Source: REIDIN
Source: REIDIN &
& Chestertons
Chestertons Source: REIDIN
Source: REIDIN &
& Chestertons
Chestertons
The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 10 The Observer - Dubai Residential Q1 2019 11Contact Us
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Managing Director 1802, Blvd. Plaza Tower 1
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All articles and data presented herein is intended for information purposes
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ations and Research Department of Chestertons, sales and leasing staff,
published data, and secondary sources. Though information is believed to
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