OUTLOOK - 2018 INDIA MARKET - Mirae Asset

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OUTLOOK - 2018 INDIA MARKET - Mirae Asset
INDIA MARKET
OUTLOOK - 2018
Indian Economy
2017 was a year where 2 major reforms, disrupted the                 GDP Growth
Indian economy - Demonetization (which was enacted at
                                                                     After declining to a three-year low of 5.7% in Q1 – the fth
end of CY’16) and implementation of GST. However the
                                                                     straight quarterly decline – GDP nosed up to 6.3% in Q2
Indian economy remained resilient and showed positive
                                                                     on improvement in industrial growth. The pick-up signals
growth in many parameters. The macro economic
                                                                     fading impact of demonetization and destocking that
conditions of India have been the best in recent times and
                                                                     preluded the implementation of the Goods and Services
we see the same continuing in 2018, however there may
                                                                     Tax (GST).
be some challenges along the way. Global growth is
showing signs of inching up, and should aid the growth in            Nuances of GDP growth (at basic prices)
the Indian economy.
The table below highlights what we believe was the                   At basic prices
                                                                                               Q2         Q3        Q4           Q1           Q2
economic picture for the Indian economy in CY 2017.                                           FY17       FY17      FY17         FY18         FY18

       The Good        The Not So Good           The Bad
                                                                     Agriculture & allied        4.1      6.9       5.2          2.3          1.7
Domestic Flows         Surge in Ination
                       in H2 of CY17
                                                                     Industry                    5.9      6.2       3.1          1.6          5.8
Economic Reforms       GDP Growth
Current Account        Fiscal Decit
                                                                     Manufacturing               7.7      8.2       5.3          1.2          4.0
Decit
Currency               FII Flows
                                                                     Mining                    -1.3       1.9       6.4         -0.7          5.5
The table below highlights what we believe will be the
economic picture for the Indian economy in CY 2018.                  Services                    7.8      6.9       7.2          8.7           7.1

       The Good        The Not So Good           The Bad
                                                                     GVA                         6.8      6.7       5.6          5.6          6.1
Domestic Flows         Ination              Volatility due to
                                             state elections         Source: CSO, CRISIL research.
Economic Reforms       Fiscal Decit         Crude Oil
Current Account                                                      The MPC forecasts for Gross Value Added (GVA)
Decit                                                               growth in scal 2018 at 6.7%. We expect the
Currency                                                             growth to pick up and average 7% this scal,
                                                                     helped by low-base effect of the second half of
GDP Growth                                                           scal 2017.

Global Growth
 8       GDP growth rate (in %)                            2017E              2018E                                       7.4
                                                                                                                    6.7                6.8
                                                                                                                                             6.5
 6
                    4.9 5.0

 4      3.6 3.7

                                   2.1 1.9   2.2 2.3
                                                           1.7 1.5      1.5                  1.5       1.8 1.6
 2
                                                                              0.7      0.7

 0
         Global    Emerging         Euro       US            UK            Japan        Brazil         Russia           India          China
-2                  Market          Zone
                                                    Developed Markets                                           BRICs
-4
Source: IMF.

2017 is the rst year of decent global growth after 5 years, which is a clear evidence of improving economic activity
globally. Major Global economies (especially US) are poised for sustained recovery, as reected in the various central
banks' intentions to hike rates. Geopolitical risk remains a concern.

INDIA MARKET OUTLOOK - 2018                                                                                                                    2
CPI Ination                                                       Current Account Decit
Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based ination surged to a              India's Current Account Decit (CAD) was $7.2 billion
fteen-month high of 4.9% in November 2017. CPI                    (1.2% of GDP) in the second quarter this scal (Q2 FY18),
ination is now nearly 340 basis points (bps) higher than          or half of the $15 billion (2.5% of GDP) in Q1, but twice
the lowest point of 1.5% in June - reason why the Reserve          the $3.5 billion (0.6% of GDP) in Q2 FY17.
Bank of India remains cautious. Inationary pressures are          Foreign direct investment (FDI) contributed more to
again in the spotlight with the crude oil price seeing a           foreign capital inows than foreign portfolio investments
sustained rise, impact of payment of higher house rent             (FPI) & helps in lowering CAD. We estimate CAD will
allowances to government employees, rising rural wages,            remain at manageable levels, which can be
some indication of return of pent up demand in the                 nanced by FDI/FPI inows.
economy and a weak base.
                                                                      (CAD in %)
14     CPI - Monthly                            RBI Repo     8.0      0
       (%YoY)                                 Rate (in %)

12                                                           7.5
                                                                                                                                                             -0.7
                                                                   -1
                                                             7.0
10                                                                                                                                                   -1.1
                                                                                 -1.3                                                        -1.3
                                                             6.5                                                                                                     -1.5
 8                                                                                                                                  -1.7                                      -1.7
                                                                   -2
                                                             6.0
                                                       6.0                                -2.3
 6
                                                             5.5
                                                     4.88          -3                             -2.8 -2.7
 4
                                                             5.0

 2                       CPI - Monthly (%YoY)                4.5   -4
                         RBI Repo Rate (in %)                                                                       -4.2
 0                                                           4.0
 Oct-12                                                Dec-17      -5                                                       -4.8
Source: Bloomberg as on 31st December 2017.

The MPC forecasts CPI ination to average ~3.6%
                                                                                                            FY11
                                                                                           FY09

                                                                                                                                                                      FY18E
                                                                                                                             FY13

                                                                                                                                                                               FY19E
                                                                                                                                              FY15

                                                                                                                                                              FY17
                                                                                                   FY10

                                                                                                                                                      FY16
                                                                                  FY08

                                                                                                                     FY12

                                                                                                                                      FY14
                                                                   -6
(actual ination at 2.6% in the rst half and
forecast at 4.3-4.7% in Q3 and Q4).
                                                                   Source: Bloomberg consensus as on 31st December 2017.

RBI Monetary Stance
                                                                   FDI - FPI contribution in capital inows
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI), Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) made no change in the policy rates in                                                              Net FDI                    Net FPI
December – leaving the repo rate at 6%, the reverse repo                                                           Figures In US$ billion
at 5.75%, and the marginal standing facility rate at                                     6.1
6.25%. So far in the easing cycle, which began in January
2015, the repo rate has been reduced by 200 basis points
(bps), with the last rate cut in August 2017.
                                                                   US$ billion

                                                                                                                                                     12.5              2.1
The MPC maintained its neutral monetary policy stance,
but raised concern on the trajectory of ination, which has                                                                   10.8
risen of late. It reiterated focus on maintaining medium-                            17.0
term ination at 4%, within a band of +/- 2%, while                                                                                                                   12.4
supporting growth.                                                                                         9.7
                                                                                                                                                     7.2
With ination having picked up sharply in recent                                                                                5.0
months, oil prices trading at near 3 year high and
possibility of scal slippage, there seems no
headroom for RBI to cut rates in the foreseeable
period. However, with growth momentum yet to                                                              -11.3
pick up strongly, RBI may refrain from hiking rates
preemptively in a rush. Thus RBI is likely to remain
on hold for better part of 2018. Any rate action, in
either direction, may materialize only in later part                              Sep-16                  Dec-16             Mar17               Jun-17              Sep-17
of 2018.                                                           Source: RBI, CEIC, CRISIL Research.

INDIA MARKET OUTLOOK - 2018                                                                                                                                                    3
Currency                                                                 Fiscal Decit
2017 has been a year of two halves for INR. In H1 CY17,                  0
INR appreciated ~6% against USD but in H2 it has
remained at. H1 appreciation driven by overall lower
                                                                         -1
current decit, strong capital inows and relatively lower
ability with RBI to intervene given a surge in INR liquidity
in the banking system post demonetization. While H2                      -2
remained at, led by widening of the current account
decit and relatively lower capital inows compared to H1.                     -2.5
                                                                         -3
With no demonetization like event, RBI’s
                                                                                                                                                                 -3.2
constraint is likely to be relaxed in FY19 as the                                                                                                        -3.5
system liquidity inches towards neutral. On the                          -4
                                                                                                                                                -3.9
other hand if for some reason INR depreciates, the                                                                                      -4.1
more than US$400bn reserves can cushion the fall                                                                                -4.5
                                                                         -5
too. Flexibility on two-way intervention can pave                                                      -4.9             -4.9
the way for INR currency to remain range-bound.
                                                                         -6
75                            INR/USD Rate                                             -6                      -5.9

                                                                         -7                   -6.7
70

                                                                 63.87

                                                                                                        FY11
                                                                                       FY09

                                                                                                                                                                  FY18E
                                                                                                                         FY13

                                                                                                                                         FY15

                                                                                                                                                          FY17
                                                                                               FY10

                                                                                                                                                  FY16
                                                                                FY08

                                                                                                                FY12

                                                                                                                                 FY14
                                                                         -8
65

                                                                         Source: Bloomberg as on 31st December 2017.

60
                                                                         • Inspite of the extra government borrowing announced
                                                                           in last week of December, central government has
55
                                                                           shown signicant scal prudence by limiting its scal
                                                                           decit within guidance / FRBM targets.
50                                                                       • Increase in oil & commodity prices will lead to increase
                                                                           in CAD & impact scal decit and will remain a key risk.
45

                                                                          40%                                          1 Year Change

40
 Dec-11              Dec-13                   Dec-15            Dec-17
                         st
                                                                                                        32%
Source: Bloomberg as on 31 December 2017.
                                                                                                                          30%                               30%
                                                                          30%
Emerging Market Currency Return in CY17*
12%
           10%
10%
 8%
                        6%                                                20%
 6%
 4%
                                                                2%                     14%                                                14%
 2%
 0%
-2%                                                                       10%
-4%
-6%
                                    -6%            -6%
-8%
           Africa

                                      China

                                                       Russia

                                                                Brazil
           South

                          India

                                                                              0%
                                                                                       Gold           Aluminium Copper                      Oil             Zinc
                         st                                                                             st
Source: Bloomberg as on 31 December 2017. *Rounded off                   Source: Bloomberg as on 31 December 2017. Metal prices are LME prices.

INDIA MARKET OUTLOOK - 2018                                                                                                                                        4
Debt Market
Review 2017                                                                  7.33%, mostly in last quarter. Headline CPI ination rose
                                                                             nearly 150bps from 3.4% in December'16 to 4.9% in
Calendar year 2017 commenced on a promising note with
                                                                             November'17. Fed raised rates 3 times from 0.50-0.75%
huge liquidity ows into banking system due to
                                                                             to 1.25-1.50% during the year in view of a strong
demonetization, low oil prices and strong scal position.
                                                                             economy and rising employment. INR appreciated nearly
However, in later part of the year, a strong rise in global
                                                                             6% for the year from 67.93/$ to below 64/$ driven by
crude oil prices, a spike in ination domestically due to
                                                                             strong FPI ows. Liquidity remained in surplus for most
rising food, fuel and housing prices, disruption in revenues
                                                                             part of the year but inched towards neutral by year end
due to GST implementation and a hawkish Fed turned the
                                                                             due to strong sterilization by RBI including by way of OMO
market sentiments into negative zone. India 10Y govt
                                                                             sales.
bond yields rose nearly 80bps from 6.52% to

Monthly FPI/FII Net Investments                                              Fixed Income Rates (in %)
(Calendar Year - 2017)
                                            INR crores                       Fixed Income - Rates             29th Dec’ 2017   31st Dec’ 2016

Calendar Year             Equity              Debt                 Total
                                                                             Call Money                             6.10            6.20
January                    -1,177              -2,319               -3,496
February                       9,902           5,960               15,862
                                                                             CBLO                                   5.82            6.23
March                     30,906              25,355                56,261
April                          2,394          20,364                22,758
                                                                             3 month CD                             6.38            6.20
May                            7,711          19,155               26,866
June                           3,617          25,685               29,302
                                                                             3 month CP                             7.06            6.71
July                           5,161          18,867               24,028
August                   -12,770              15,447                 2,677   1 year CD                              6.75            6.63
September                -11,392               1,349               -10,043
October                        3,055          16,064               19,119    1 year CP                              7.53            7.34
November                  19,728                 531               20,258
December                   -5,883              2,350                -3,544
                                                                             G-Sec (10 yrs)                         7.33            6.52
Total - 2017             51,252             1,48,808             2,00,048
Source: NSDL, 31st December 2017.                                            Source: Bloomberg as on 31st December 2017.

Global Interest Rates
10       (Rates in %)                                                        • Post global crisis, Interest rates have been trending
 9             US              UK      Japan             India                 down and now, rates seem to have bottomed out.
 8                                                                           • Fed and European Central Banks' indications of rate
                                                                               hike and QE withdrawal points towards their increasing
 7                                                                   7.3       condence in global economic growth.
 6

 5

 4

 3
                                                                     2.4
 2
                                                                     1.2
 1

 0                                                                   0.05
 Dec-16                                                          Dec-17
                          st
Source: Bloomberg as on 31 December 2017.

INDIA MARKET OUTLOOK - 2018                                                                                                                5
Debt Outlook 2018
Its time again for crystal ball gazing, to make assessment      On the global front, Fed rmly remains on gradual rate
for what holds in store for xed income investors in 2018.      hike path. The balance sheet shrinking exercise by Fed will
Macro economic environment appears pretty challenging           step up to $20bn/pm from Q1CY18 and will peak at
for debt markets as we prepare to welcome the new               $50bn/pm by end of year sucking out over $300bn of
calendar year. Headline CPI ination at 4.88% for               liquidity from global markets in current year. US economy
November'17, already above the higher end of RBI                is on a rm footing having grown at 3.3% in last quarter,
assessment of 4.70%, is expected to print near 6% in            its' fastest pace in over 3 years. Unemployment rate at
Q1CY18. Pushing higher the ination trajectory are three        4.1% is lowest in over a decade. The likely passing of a tax
crucial variables. First the Brent crude oil prices which are   cut bill will further provide a strong stimulus. Similarly,
now trading at near $67/bl, almost a 3 year high. To            Euro zone economy is also growing strongly and its not
complicate matters further, even as oil remains on boil,        long before that ECB will need to tone down the ongoing
Govt needed to cut excise duty on petroleum products in         QE exercise. Thus, global markets are also hinting at
response to public outrage putting pressure on scal            higher rates in coming year.
balance (Analyst estimates at ` 13000 crs on this count).       The silver lining though amongst this gloomy scenario is
Secondly, increased allowances under 10th pay                   that interest rates in India have already risen sharply in
commission recommendations have resulted in housing             recent months and are benchmark 10Y govt bonds have
component of ination to shoot up. Finally, the vegetable       been trading at near 7.35%, the yearly high of 2017. A
prices witnessed a sharp surge in Q4CY17 pushing                large section of market believes that all these negatives
headline ination higher. To the extent that the current        are already factored in and any further spike in market
surge is partly attributed to normalization of vegetable        rates in unlikely. On the other hand, any improvement in
prices, which had collapsed in November last year               macro environment may allow rates to ease.
immediately after demonetization, a quick easing of the         Given RBI's cautious stance, in the current environment, it
same is unlikely. Core ination that has remained rather        may remain on prolonged pause, holding key policy rates
sticky throughout the year has also risen in recent months      at current levels. A slowing growth may also hold RBI back
and crossed 5% mark in November. Along side, revenue            from hiking rates even if the next few months turn into a
collections have not shown the expected improvement             more challenging macro environment.
post implementation of GST and scal decit for April-Oct
                                                                In conclusion, H12018 may witness a mild increase in
period has already reached nearly 97% for the budget.
                                                                benchmark rates given deteriorating macros. However, if
Even assuming, govt is able to retain the current year's
                                                                revenue collections show improvement, as they are
scal decit target of 3.2%, it would be an uphill task to
                                                                expected to, as initial glitches of GST stabilizes and if India
retain 3% scal decit target for FY19 as dictated by
                                                                has another normal monsoon allowing food prices to
FRBM. In recent months, export growth has been erratic
                                                                soften, market rates may start easing in H2CY18.
and imports have shown sharp uptick necessitating a
recast of CAD projection by most analysts. Thus, on macro
front, headwinds to lower rates remain pretty strong in the
form of accelerating ination, possible scal slippage and
widening CAD.

INDIA MARKET OUTLOOK - 2018                                                                                                 6
Investment Strategy
Mirae Asset Cash Management Fund*
• Endeavor will be to give stable returns with minimal mark to market and credit risk.
• Liquid portfolio with minimal interest rate risk.
• Invests in high quality Money Market/Debt Instruments.
• Endeavor will be to maintain average maturity upto 91 days (usually between 20-50 days).

Mirae Asset Savings Fund*
• Mirae Asset Savings Fund is positioned between liquid funds and short-term funds with respect to the risk-return
  matrix.
• The fund will endeavor to have a portfolio of high quality and medium / low interest rate sensitive debt securities.
• Endeavor will be to maintain average maturity of 9-12 months.

Mirae Asset Dynamic Bond Fund*
• The fund has the exibility to invest across spectrum of debt and money market instruments, based on assessment of
  interest rate outlook.
• The fund responds to continuously changing market scenario by actively managing its portfolio.
• Aims to optimize risk adjusted returns.
* The Fund positioning may be changed by Fund Manager, in accordance with the market scenario

Product Labelling
                                                               These products are suitable
     Name of the Scheme                                                                                                        Riskometer
                                                             for investors who are seeking*

                                                                                                                                      Moderate   Mo
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Mirae Asset Cash

                                                                                                                                                             Hig
                                              • Investment in a portfolio of short duration
                                                                                                                Low

Management Fund

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                                                money market and debt instruments
                                                                                                                Investors understand that their principal
                                                                                                                           will be at Low Risk

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                                              • Optimal returns over medium term
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Mirae Asset Savings Fund
                                                                                                                                                             Hig
                                                                                                                Low

                                              • Investment in a portfolio debt and money market
                                                                                                                                                              h

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                                                                                                                Investors understand that their principal
                                                                                                                     will be at Moderately Low Risk

                                                                                                                                      Moderate   Mo
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                                              • Optimal returns over short to medium term                                 od Lo
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Mirae Asset Dynamic                           • To generate optimal returns through active
                                                                                                                                                             Hig
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Bond Fund                                       management of a portfolio of debt and money market
                                                                                                                                                              h

                                                instruments
                                                                                                                Investors understand that their principal
                                                                                                                        will be at Moderate Risk

*Investors should consult their nancial advisers if they are not clear about the suitability of the product.

INDIA MARKET OUTLOOK - 2018                                                                                                                                   7
Equity Market
2017 - Recap                                               Sensex performance for CY17
                                                           34,000               (Index Level)
2017 will be remembered for its strong comeback (Sensex
up 27% v/s almost at in 2016) after one of its kind of    33,000
reforms in terms of demonetization and GST which           32,000
disrupted the economy. However, India was also joined by
similar performance in other key indices (US +25%, MSCI    31,000
EM +29%, Japan +19%). On the sectoral performance          30,000
front, all other domestic sectoral indices were positive
with consumer durables being the best performer &          29,000
Health care being the worst performer.                     28,000
Equity remained the best performing asset class in
                                                           27,000
2017.
                                                           26,000
                                                                Jan-17                                                                                                                                Dec-17
Reforms on Track (2015-2017)
                                                           Source: Bloomberg as on 31st December 2017.

Fiscal Prudence
                                                           Performance of global indices in CY17
                                                           (Return in %)
                   • J-A-M* architecture                   40   36%
                   *J-A-M: Jandhan-Aadhar-Mobile
                                                           35
                   • Inflation control                      30                     28%              27%               26%
                                                           25                                                                          22%
                                                                                                                                                               19%
                                                           20
                                                           15
                                                           10                                                                                                                         7%                6%
Tax Reforms
                                                            5
                                                            0
                                                                                     Brazil

                                                                                                      India
                                                                                                   (Sensex)

                                                                                                                             US
                                                                                                                     (Dow Jones)

                                                                                                                                             Korea

                                                                                                                                                               Japan

                                                                                                                                                                                      UK

                                                                                                                                                                                                         China
                                                                    Hong Kong

                   • GST
                   • Committed to reduce corporate
                     tax rate
                                                           Source: Bloomberg as on 31st December 2017.

                                                           Performance of key sectoral indices in CY17
Ease of Doing Business                                     (Return in %)
                                                           120
                                                                  102%
                                                           100
                   • RERA, IBC, UDAY, FDI, etc.
                                                            80
                   • Transparency in auctioning                                   60%
                                                            60                                     48%           48%
                                                                                                                                 39%             35%
                                                            40                                                                                                    32%                 32%

                                                            20
                                                                                                                                                                                                        0%
Aspirational Targets                                         0
                                                                  Consumer
                                                                   Durables

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Health Care
                                                                                   BSE Small-Cap

                                                                                                                                    Bankex

                                                                                                                                                     BSE 200
                                                                   S&P BSE

                                                                                                   BSE Mid-Cap

                                                                                                                 S&P BSE Metal

                                                                                                                                   S&P BSE

                                                                                                                                                                       S&P BSE Auto

                                                                                                                                                                                       S&P BSE FMCG

                                                                                                                                                                                                          S&P BSE

                   • Housing for All
                   • Doubling of farm income

                                                           Source: Bloomberg as on 31st December 2017.

INDIA MARKET OUTLOOK - 2018                                                                                                                                                                                  8
2018 Outlook                                                    • Corporate earnings recovery
Corporate earnings recovery visibility has improved for            Corporate earnings is expected to make a comeback in
2018 with the building blocks for domestic economic                2018 after subdued trend in the last few years. India
recovery seem to be falling in place - led by both structural      corporate earnings have started normalizing after the
and cyclical factors. Global economic recovery is expected         demonetization / GST led disruptions and would see a
to continue and could revive India exports. In terms of            good growth with improving operating conditions and
chronology, key events to watchout for 2018 would be               helped by base effect. Two consecutive good
India Annual budget, rate hikes by global central banks',          monsoons, improved farm insurance penetration and
monsoon trends, followed by newsow on run up to state             farm loan waivers in some states should have a positive
and general elections. Key risks for 2018 include
                                                                   impact on the rural economy.
(a) Higher-than-expected crude oil prices and weaker-
                                                                • Visibility of benets from recent Reforms
    than-expected GST revenues,
                                                                  Indian government has pushed various reforms/
(b) Twin balance sheet stress,                                    schemes over the last few years which include GST
(c) Pace of rate hikes by global central banks,                   (Goods and service tax), Housing for All and IBC
(d) Upcoming election outcomes and                                (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code) among others.
                                                                  While it would take some time to realize the full
(e) Geopolitical situation.                                       benets of these reforms, we expect some early
The valuation of key Indices (Nifty/Sensex) might appear          visibility on benets in 2018. We expect near term
stretched as against the historical averages. However, we         benets from “Housing for All” scheme (has a
believe the valuations are optically high as India corporate      multiplies effect across value chain) and PSU bank
earnings are at cyclical lows. Corporate prot to GDP is at       recapitalization (will support credit growth) along with
a decade low at 2.9%, while RoE’s are almost 10% lower            NPA resolutions.
than the peak of 2008. At a broader level, recovery in the
earnings and signs of return in investment cycle will be        • Trend towards nancial savings and digitization
keenly watched in 2018. India remains one of the few               We expect continued trend towards nancial savings
regions with structural long term growth drivers, and              led by (a) Formalization of the economy (GST,
expects market returns to track earnings growth which is           Demonetization, Aadhar, RERA), (b) widening social
expected to revive. These coupled with concerted efforts           security net (PM Mudra Yojana, Pension Yojana, NPS)
by government to revive the investment cycle, benets of
                                                                   and (c) strengthening nancial network (Jan Dhan,
decent monsoons and pay hike, will help revive the growth
in corporate earnings, which has been muted for few                UPI, DBT). Linking of Aadhar can throw up positive
years.                                                             surprises and help in accelerating the pace of
                                                                   formalization of the economy. Government has already
At a portfolio level we continue to use bottoms-up
                                                                   saved billions by targeting subsidy schemes under DBT.
approach and invest in companies that have shown good
protability across the cycles and run by competent
management. We would advise to follow a well-crafted            DII ows providing strength to markets
balanced allocation towards equites, with a large portion
allocated to multi-cap funds. We would advice investors to                           FII Equity                  DII Equity
                                                                 24.5
invest through SIP route (with a well-dened goal in mind)
                                                                                                 USD Billion
or in a staggered manner (through STP) to participate in
                                                                             20.0
the Indian equity markets.
                                                                                          16.2
                                                                                                                                        14.5
Key themes likely to shape up in 2018
could be…                                                                                                      10.2
                                                                                                                                  8.6
• Balancing forces on the economic front
  Macro scenario (ination, scal, interest rates) was                                                                      5.3
  favourable in 2017, while 2018 could be a more                                                        3.3           2.9
  balanced year. We expect economic growth to pick up
  as demonetization and GST disruption wanes,
  government spends continues and investment cycle
  picks up in 2H. However, balancing factors could be (1)
  rising ination, (2) hardening global interest rate cycle                                      -4.9
  and (3) lower domestic scal space. Recent state
  election results and upcoming 2018/19 elections could
                                                                     -10.9
  have some bearing on the upcoming budget.
                                                                                    -13
  Government till now has maintained scal discipline
  (also led to rating upgrade by Moody's), however we             CY12         CY13         CY14         CY15         CY16        CY17
  will not be surprised if it allows itself some slack in the
  decit targets to increase spending..                         Source: RBI, CEIC, CRISIL Research
                                                                                                                                  st
                                                                                                        Source: Bloomberg as on 31 December 2017.

INDIA MARKET OUTLOOK - 2018                                                                                                               9
1. Sensex ROE                                                                                                           4. India well placed in FII Flows
                                       Sensex ROE (%)
                                                                                                                        FII ows ($bn)               2013        2014      2015         2016        2017
                           24.4
                                            23.8                                                                        India                         19.6        16.2          3.3        2.9       8.0
                           23.0
                                                   21.7                                                                 Taiwan                            9.2     13.2          3.4      11.0        6.0
                       20.3
                                                                                                                        South Korea                       4.9      5.7          -3.6     10.5        8.1
                                                          18.5
               17.6                                           16.9                                                      Indonesia                         -1.8     3.8          -1.6       1.3       -2.9
                                                                           16.1
                                                                                                              15.2
         16.0                                                       16.6                14.9
                                                                                                                        South Africa                      0.1      1.5          0.7        -8.6      -3.9
                                                                                 15.4           14.1
15.2                                                      15.3
                                                                                                                        Brazil                            4.9      9.0          5.7        3.9       3.0
                                                                                                              13.6
                                                                                                  12.9
                                                                                                                        Total                        36.8        49.3           7.9      20.9       18.4
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
                                            FY08
                                                     FY09
                                                     FY10
                                                     FY11
                                                     FY12
                                                     FY13
                                                     FY14
                                                     FY15
                                                     FY16
                                                     FY17
                                                    FY18E
                                                                                                                FY19E
                                                                                                                        India's share (%)            53.2        32.8       41.4         13.9       44.5

Source: Ace, Bloomberg.                                                                                                 Source: Business Standard.

2. Corporate prots to GDP                                                                                              5. Nifty P/E
                         Corporate prots to GDP (%)                                                                         Nifty P/E (x)                10 Yr avg P/E (x)            5 Yr avg P/E (x)
                       7.8                                                                                              30
               7.3
                                       6.5
        6.2                                    6.2
                                                                                                                        25
5.4                            5.5
                                                                  4.6
                                                           4.9           4.3                                            20                                                    18.5
                                                                                 3.8                                                                              17.2
                                                                                        3.1
                                                                                               2.9 3.1 3.3
                                                                                                                        15

                                                                                                                        10

                                                                                                                         5
 FY05
        FY06
                FY07
                        FY08
                                FY09
                                       FY10
                                                   FY11
                                                           FY12
                                                                  FY13
                                                                          FY14
                                                                                 FY15
                                                                                        FY16
                                                                                               FY17
                                                                                                      FY18E
                                                                                                              FY19E

                                                                                                                         0
                                                                                                                        Nov-05                                                                    Dec-17
Source: Ace, Bloomberg; Data for top 500 companies.                                                                     Source: Bloomberg as on 31st December 2017.

3. Nifty EPS Growth                                                                                                     6. Sectoral break-up of Nifty EPS (INR)
                                Nifty EPS                                YoY (%)                                                                                                              586
31%            26%                            26%                                                             23%                                                         477
                        22%
                                                                         15%               11%                                                       425
                                       8%                 7%
                                                                  3%                    -1%                                      384
        12%                                                                                   12%
                                                                                                              586
                                                                                 -5%
                               -13%                                                                   477
                                                                         408 387 384 425
                                                       356
                                               323 346
                       275
               226             238 257
        179
160

                                                                                                                                 FY16            FY17                    FY18E              FY19E

                                                                                                                             Media             Telecom/Utilities              Automobiles
 FY05
        FY06
                FY07
                        FY08
                                FY09
                                       FY10
                                                   FY11
                                                           FY12
                                                                  FY13
                                                                          FY14
                                                                                 FY15
                                                                                        FY16
                                                                                               FY17
                                                                                                      FY18E
                                                                                                              FY19E

                                                                                                                             Health Care       IT                             Commodities (Oil/Metal)

                                                                                                                             Consumer          Cap Goods & Infra              Financials
                                       st                                                                                                            st
Source: Bloomberg as on 31 December 2017.                                                                               Source: Bloomberg as on 31 December 2017.

INDIA MARKET OUTLOOK - 2018                                                                                                                                                                          10
Investment Strategy
Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund*
Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund is a Multicap Equity fund which
• Has exibility to invest across sector, themes & market caps. Portfolio is well diversied across sectors and themes.
• Combines consistency of large caps with conviction idea from midcaps. Typically invest about 75% (± 10%) in large companies in
  sync with benchmark.
• Actively Managed portfolio with ‘core’ and ‘tactical’ approach.
• Bottom up approach: driven by value investing, in growth oriented businesses.
Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund*
• The Fund invests primarily (65%+) in mid-size companies (companies not amongst the Top 100 companies).
• Bottom up approach: driven by value investing, in growth oriented businesses.
• Portfolio is well diversied across sectors and stocks.
• Focus is to compound capital over the long term. Investment approach is centered around participating in high quality businesses
  upto a reasonable price and holding the same over an extended period of time.
Mirae Asset Prudence Fund*
Allocation between Equity and Debt - Function of Valuation, Earnings Growth and Interest Rate Outlook
For the Equity portion
• Portfolio of larger companies (atleast 65% investments in top 100 companies by market capitalization) may provide stability to the
  fund.
• Diversied portfolio of strong growth companies at reasonable price.
• Has exibility to invest across sector & themes.
For the Debt portion
• Flexibility to invest across all the securities in the debt and money markets.
• Portfolio composition in line with extant outlook on yield curve shape and market spreads.
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund*
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund is an ELSS equity fund which
• Has exibility to invest across sector, themes & market caps. Portfolio is well diversied across sectors and themes.
• Focus is to compound capital over the long term. Diversied portfolio of strong growth companies at reasonable price.
* The Fund positioning may be changed by Fund Manager, in accordance with the market scenario

Product Labelling
                                                               These products are suitable
     Name of the Scheme                                                                                                        Riskometer
                                                             for investors who are seeking*

Mirae Asset India                              • Long-term capital appreciation
Opportunities Fund                             • Investment in equities, equity related securities

                                               • Long-term capital appreciation
Mirae Asset Emerging                           • Predominantly investments in Indian equities and
Bluechip Fund                                    equity related securities of companies which are                                     Moderate   Mo
                                                                                                                                ely                 de
                                                                                                                              at                  Hi rat
                                                 not part of the top 100 stocks by market capitalization                    er w                     gh e
                                                                                                                          od Lo
                                                                                                                      M

                                                                                                                                                        ly

                                               • Capital appreciation along with current income over
                                                                                                                                                             Hig
                                                                                                                Low

                                                                                                                                                              h

                                                 long term
Mirae Asset Prudence
Fund                                           • Investment predominantly in equity and equity related          Investors understand that their principal
                                                                                                                    will be at Moderately High Risk
                                                 instruments with balance exposure to debt and
                                                 money market instruments

                                               • Growth of capital over long term
Mirae Asset Tax
Saver Fund                                     • Investment predominantly in equity and equity
                                                 related instruments

*Investors should consult their nancial advisers if they are not clear about the suitability of the product.

INDIA MARKET OUTLOOK - 2018                                                                                                                                  11
Disclaimers: Certain information contained in this document is compiled from third party sources. Whilst Mirae Asset Global Investments (India) Private Limited has to the
best of its endeavor ensured that such information is accurate, complete and up-to-date, and has taken care in accurately reproducing the information, it shall have no
responsibility or liability whatsoever for the accuracy of such information or any use or reliance thereof. This document shall not be deemed to constitute any offer to sell the
schemes of Mirae Asset Mutual Fund. Mirae Asset Global Investments (India) Pvt. Ltd/ Mirae Asset Trustee Co. Pvt. Ltd./ Mirae Asset Mutual Fund/ its Directors or
employees accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any kind resulting out of the unauthorized use of this document. References to particular sectors, securities or
companies are for general information only and are not recommendations to buy or sell a security, or an indication of the author's holdings/ portfolios of the schemes of
Mirae Asset Mutual Fund at any one time.

            Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully
                   Email Us                                    Call Us                                Internet                                Contact your financial
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