Potentials for Energy Savings & Technical Efficiency - XVI Malente Symposium Changing Global Dynamics" "Energy, Climate, and Future Welfare
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XVI Malente Symposium
"Energy, Climate, and Future Welfare –
Changing Global Dynamics"
Potentials for
Energy Savings & Technical
Efficiency
Wolfgang Eichhammer
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
Lübeck, October 8-10, 2006
Energy Efficiency
Armory Lovin‘s Bathroom Plug (today)
Current
efficiency level
Armory Lovin‘s bathroom plug 2020
Current
efficiency level
No-regret
potentials 2020
Results from Audits in Germany (Campaign
"Druckluft Effizient" of the Fraunhofer ISI)
100
90 30%
30%economic
economic
80
potentials
potentialson
onaverage
average
specific saving potential [%]
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Electricity consumption for
Electricity comsumption forcompress
compressed air (MWh/a)
air [MWh/a]
Source: Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, November 2003
Change in Efficiency Standards of New Dwellings:
Specific Consumption Index
France Germany UK
France Germany UK
100 100
100 100 100
80
100
80 80 80
80 80
60
60 60 60
40 60 60
40
40 40
20 40 40
20
0 20 20
0 20 20
Mt CO2
Comparison of 250
various reference EK (2002) Referenz-IER
EU Energy Outlook (1998)
projections (right) and 225
Prognos/EWI (1999)
various climate Ist-Entwicklung
protection scenarios 200
(below) in Germany
for CO2-Emissionen 175
(residential and
150
service sectors)
Mt CO2
250 125
225
100
200 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
175
150
125
EK (2002) UWE-IER
100 EK (2002) UWE-WI Source: Policy Scenarios 2003
Source: Policy Scenarios 2003
EK (2002) RRO-IER
75 EK (2002) RRO-WI
EK (2002) RRO 100%-IER
50 EK (2002) FNE-IER
EK (2002) FNE-WI
25 Ist-Entwicklung
UBA (2002) NH-WI
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Price development of energy efficiency
technologies during the energy efficiency
programmes of the UK (in real terms)
33
CFLs
CFLs
2.5
(2001=1
2.5
prices(2001=1
Cavity
CavityWall
Wall
22 Insulation
Insulation
Condensing
CondensingBoiler
realprices
Boiler
1.5
1.5
HW
HWTank
TankInsulation
Insulation
Indexreal
11
Fridge
FridgeFreezer
Freezer(A-
Index
(A-
Rated)
Rated)
0.5
0.5 CWI
CWI(1994
(1994street
street
price)
price)
00
Source: Lees (2006)
1993
1993 1995
1995 1997
1997 1999
1999 2001
2001 2003
2003 2005
2005 Source: Lees (2006)Armory Lovin‘s bathroom plug 2040
Current
efficiency level
Including Innovations due to
Nanotechnologies,
Biotechnologies, No-regret
Information/Communication
Technologies potentials 2020
Energy
Efficiency R&D
204014
Long-term energy Copper
of current specific energy consumption to minimal energy
Smelt reduction + oxygen steel
saving potentials 12 Steel Blast furnace + oxygen steel
consumption from chemical equation
industrial sector: 10
Lead
Metals
12,60
Ratio current 8 10,90 Steel Pig Iron
(smelt reduction)
Ratio
9,50
energy consump- 6
tion / minimum 7,10
Zinc Pig Iron
(blast furnace)
6,50
energy consump- 4
4,30
Primary
4,00 Aluminium
tion 2
18
Alumina 2,40
of current specific energy consumption to minimal energy
16
0
Cu (Fe)SR+OS
(Fe)SR+OS Pb (Fe)BF+OS
(Fe)BF+OS (Fe3C)SR
(Fe3C)SR Zn (Fe3C)BF
(Fe3C)BF Alprim
consumption from chemical equation
14
Basic
12 16,1 from CaO
Chemicals from CH4
10
Ratio
8 Ammonia
6 Methanole Acethylene I Acethylene II
Phosphor Sodium Calcium
4
6,7 Carbonate Carbide
Chlorine
2 3,8
3,0 2,5 2,4 2,3
1,9 1,5
0
Al2O3 NH3 CH3OH
CH3OH P C2H2 (I)
C2H2 (I) Na2CO3 C2H2
Na2CO3 C2H2(II) CaC2
CaC2 Cl2
Cl2Shortening of the process
chain for rolled steel and
impact on energy
consumption
Source:
Aichinger/Steffen (2006)Supercapacitors to
avoid oversizing of
car engines
(current cars are
oversized by 2-8 for
the sake of
acceleration)
Source: White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D
CEPE (2004)Bistable
Bistablepixels
pixels
need
needonly
only
electricity
electricityto
to
change the state,
change the state,
not
notpermanently
permanently
like
liketoday
today
More efficient flat screens
Source: Science et Vie (2004)Armory Lovin‘s bathroom plug 2080
Current efficiency
Product/Material level
Strategies 2080
No-regret
potentials 2020
Energy
Efficiency R&D
2040The long-term improvement of energy efficiency
has many legs...
Direct efficiency improvement in the chain from energy
supply to use
Process substitution
Energy
Lowering the demand for useful energy
Recycling of energy-intensive materials
Reduce the specific material consumption Material
(”Dematerialisation”)
Product recycling and lifetime extension/ intensification of
product use
Use of biogenic raw materialsMaterial Savings through Nanocoatings
Beim Korrosionsschutz bestehen sehr hohe Ökoeffizienzpotenziale durch den Einsatz von Nano-Beschichtungen. Bei
geringerer Schichtdicke erfüllt dieser Lack die gleichen Funktionen wie herkömmliche Anstriche. Darüber hinaus muss
nicht mehr mit Chrom vorbehandelt werden. Der Materialverbrauch sinkt um 85 % im Vergleich zu konventionellen
Korrosionsschutzbeschichtungen.
Source: NTC Nano Tech Coatings (2004)
www.materialeffizienz.deMaterialkosten senken
Können wir durch die Verwendung von hoch- und
höherfesten Blechen für unser Produkt die
Materialstärken so reduzieren, dass wir damit 25 % an
Gewicht oder mehr einsparen? Oder gehen dann unsere
Werkzeuge bei der Bearbeitung der neuen Stahlbleche
kaputt? Und wird das Produkt dann nicht zu teuer?
Diese Fragen stellte sich der Innovationskreis beim
Mittelständler Zelenka im bayerischen Gilching. Die Antwort
darauf ist eine Transportpalette zum sicheren Transport
hochwertiger Maschinenteile, die 22 % leichter ist und zu 12
% geringeren Herstellkosten produziert werden konnte.
Mittlerweile wird dieses Produkt serienmäßig hergestellt und
verkauft.
Source: Zelenka GmbH (2004)
www.materialeffizienz.deConclusions Recent changes in energy - and material efficiency - policy (EU Directive for Energy Efficiency and Energy Services; German Programme and Agency for Material Efficiency); but new policies still have to show that they can have a strong impact. Key to the uptake of energy efficiency technology: trigger demand for the products while improve further their performance through R&D Particularly valid for the developing world: without suitable large-scale policy initiatives and frames to enhance the demand for energy efficient products – possibly in cooperative schemes - efficient technologies will be taken up at too slow a path to cope with the challenges of climate change and security of supply. Particularly important is to get energy efficient technologies to become part of the economic growth processes in developed and developing countries and not be seen as expensive add-ons.
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