Prediction of urine culture results by automated urinalysis with digital flow morphology analysis

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Prediction of urine culture results by automated urinalysis with digital flow morphology analysis
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                OPEN             Prediction of urine culture
                                 results by automated urinalysis
                                 with digital flow morphology
                                 analysis
                                 Dokyun Kim1,2, Seoung Chul Oh1, Changseung Liu1,2,3, Yoonjung Kim1, Yongjung Park1* &
                                 Seok Hoon Jeong1,2
                                 To investigate the association between the results of urinalysis and those of concurrent urine cultures,
                                 and to construct a prediction model for the results of urine culture. A total of 42,713 patients were
                                 included in this study. Patients were divided into two independent groups including training and
                                 test datasets. A novel prediction algorithm, designated the UTOPIA value, was constructed with the
                                 training dataset, based on an association between the results of urinalysis and those of concurrent
                                 urine culture. The diagnostic performance of the UTOPIA value was validated with the test dataset.
                                 Six variables were selected for the equation of the UTOPIA value: age of higher UTI risk [odds ratio
                                 (OR), 2.069125], female (OR, 1.400648), nitrite (per 1 grade; OR, 3.765457), leukocyte esterase (per 1
                                 grade; OR, 1.701586), the number of WBCs (per 1 × ­106/L; OR, 1.000121), and the number of bacteria
                                 (per 1 × ­106/L; OR, 1.004195). The UTOPIA value exhibited an area under the curve value of 0.837
                                 when validated with the independent test dataset. The UTOPIA value displayed good diagnostic
                                 performance for predicting urine culture results, which would help to reduce unnecessary culture.
                                 Different cutoffs can be used according to the clinical indication.

                                   Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most common bacterial infection acquired in the community and in health-
                                   care facilities. The prevalence of UTI is estimated to be 11% of the overall population, and almost half of adult
                                   women suffer from UTI at least once in their ­lifetime1,2. Clinical manifestations of UTI are mostly mild; however,
                                   the disease could develop serious complications, especially in certain high-risk populations including infants,
                                   pregnant women, and aged ­population3. Therefore, early diagnosis and empirical antimicrobial treatment is
                                   essential to improve clinical outcomes of patients with ­UTI4.
                                       The gold standard for definitive diagnosis of UTI is detection of the pathogen by bacterial culture of a urine
                                 ­specimen5, and an antimicrobial susceptibility profile can be obtained by testing clinical isolates. However,
                                   urine culture is a time-consuming procedure, and the microbial spectrum of causative organisms in UTIs is
                                   narrow. Therefore, routine cultures are often not necessary to manage patients with uncomplicated UTIs, and
                                   only urinalysis either by test strip analysis and/or sediment analysis are recommended for the decision of patient
                                  ­management6. Among the components of test strip analysis, leukocyte esterase (LE) and nitrite are commonly
                                   used to diagnose UTI in routine clinical practices. Urine LE positive indicates pyuria, and urine nitrite positive
                                   indicates the presence of nitrate-reducing bacteria. However, diagnostic performance of these tests is not suf-
                                   ficiently high to be used alone due to limitations of the test ­principle7.
                                       Test strip analysis is traditionally done by the dipstick based on physicochemical reactions, and the results
                                   are interpreted using a reflectometer. Automated urinalysis systems including sample preparation, aliquot, and
                                   reading have been introduced to improve test throughput and efficiency and to reduce labor and time. In addition,
                                   microscopic examination of urine sediment is also widely used to diagnose urinary tract diseases by identify-
                                   ing various types of cells, casts, and crystals in a urine sample. However, manual microscopic examination is a
                                   time-consuming procedure and requires expertise to maintain consistency of the result interpretation. Recently,
                                   different types of automated urine sediment analysis systems have been introduced. Among them, the iQ200
                                   (Beckman Coulter Inc., Brea, CA, US) is an automated digital imaging-based system that uses flow morphology

                                 1
                                  Department of Laboratory Medicine, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 211
                                 Eonju‑ro Gangnam‑gu, Seoul 06273, South Korea. 2Research Institute of Bacterial Resistance, Yonsei University
                                 College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea. 3Department of Laboratory Medicine, School of Medicine, Kangwon
                                 National University, Chuncheon, South Korea. *email: YPARK119@yuhs.ac

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                                                          Urine culture-no growth or
                                                          contamination                                Urine culture-positive                                 Total
           Variablea                                      35,421 (82.9%)                               7292 (17.1%)                                P-value    42,713 (100.0%)
           Age (year)                                     55 (24–69)                                   58 (19–74)                                   < 0.0001 56 (24–70)
           Age group with high risk for UTI               12,636 (35.7%)                               3883 (53.3%)                                 < 0.0001 16,519 (38.7%)
           Male                                           19,171 (54.1%)                               2464 (33.8%)                                 < 0.0001 21,635 (50.7%)
           Hospitalization                                24,901 (70.3%)                               5135 (70.4%)                                  0.8388 30,036 (70.3%)
           Difference in reception time between uri-
                                                          0.3 (0.1–18.2)                               0.3 (0.1–22.9)                                0.5109 0.3 (0.1–19.1)
           nalysis and urine culture (minute)
           Time to report results of urinalysis (minute) 23.0 (16.0–33.7)                              23.5 (16.3–34.7)                             < 0.0017 23.1 (16.1–33.8)
           Difference in report time between urinalysis
                                                        36.8 (22.8–56.5)                               60.6 (45.5–82.4)                             < 0.0001 39.8 (23.7–62.7)
           and urine culture (hour)
           Time to report results of urine culture
                                                          36.7 (23.0–56.2)                             60.6 (45.6–82.5)                             < 0.0001 39.8 (23.9–62.6)
           (hour)
           Test strip analysis
           Specific gravity                               1.015 (1.010–1.021)                          1.013 (1.008–1.018)                          < 0.0001 1.015 (1.009–1.021)
           pH                                             6.0 (5.0–6.5)                                6.0 (5.5–7.0)                                < 0.0001 6.0 (5.0–6.5)
           Protein                                        Trace (Negative–Trace)                       Trace (Negative–1 +)                         < 0.0001 Trace (Negative–1 +)
           Glucose                                        Negative (Negative–Negative)                 Negative (Negative–Negative)                  0.1894 Negative (Negative–Negative)
           Blood/red blood cell                           Negative (Negative–Trace)                    Trace (Negative–1 +)                         < 0.0001 Negative (Negative–Trace)
           Nitrite                                        Negative (Negative–Negative)                 Negative (Negative–1 +)                      < 0.0001 Negative (Negative–Negative)
           Leukocyte esterase                             Negative (Negative–Negative)                 2 + (Negative–3 +)                           < 0.0001 Negative (Negative–1 +)
           Digital flow morphology analysis (× 106/L)
           Red blood cell                                 5 (2–14)                                     12 (3–53)                                    < 0.0001 5 (2–18)
           White blood cell                               6 (2–16)                                     76 (9–573)                                   < 0.0001 7 (3–26)
           Epithelial cell                                1 (0–3)                                      2 (0–7)                                      < 0.0001 1 (0–4)
           Cast                                           0 (0–0)                                      0 (0–0)                                      < 0.0001 0 (0–0)
           Bacteria                                       0 (0–1)                                      2 (0–13)                                     < 0.0001 0 (0–1)
           Urine culture results                          No growth, 23,454 (66.2%)                    Single pathogen, 6506 (89.2%)
                                                                                                       Single pathogen with possible pathogen
                                                          Possible contamination, 8260 (23.3%)
                                                                                                       below the threshold, 325 (4.5%)
                                                          Single possible pathogen below the thresh-   Single pathogen with single normal flora,
                                                          old, 1894 (5.3%)                             241 (3.3%)
                                                          Single normal flora, 1,259 (3.6%)            Two pathogens, 220 (3.0%)
                                                          Miscellaneous, 554 (1.6%)

                                                     Table 1.  Patient characteristics and results of urinalysis according to the urine culture results. UTI urinary
                                                     tract infection. a Categorical variables and continuous variables are presented by number (%) and median
                                                     (1st–3rd quartiles), respectively.

                                                     analysis to classify particles in a urine sample based on multiple parameters including size, shape, contrast, and
                                                     texture. This instrument has exhibited satisfactory analytical performance for the quantitation of red blood cells
                                                     (RBCs), white blood cells (WBCs), and epithelial cells compared with other automated sediment analysis systems
                                                     and manual microscopic m    ­ ethods8.
                                                         Here, we evaluated an association between the results of urinalysis obtained by the iRICELL system including
                                                     the iQ200 automated urine sediment analysis instrument with results of concurrent urine cultures. We also aimed
                                                     to construct a simple but practical prediction model for the positive urine culture with the results of urinalysis
                                                     including automated urine sediment analysis.

                                                     Results
                                                     Patient characteristics and urine culture results. The median (1st–3rd quartiles) age of the 42,713
                                                     patients was 56 (24–69), and 38.7% (n = 16,519) of the patients were included in the high-risk age group (Table 1).
                                                     Almost half (50.7%, n = 21,635) of the subjects were male, and two thirds (70.3%, n = 30,036) of the subjects were
                                                     hospitalized patients. The median (1st–3rd quartiles) difference in reception time between urinalysis and urine
                                                     culture was 0.3 (0.1–19.1) minutes, and the median difference in report time was 39.8 (23.7–62.7) hours. The
                                                     results of urine culture were positive for 17.1% (n = 7292) of the patients, and 89.2% (n = 6506) of these were
                                                     positive with a single pathogen, 4.5% (n = 325) with a single pathogen and a possible pathogen below the thresh-
                                                     old, 3.3% (n = 220) with a single pathogen and a single normal flora, and 3.0% (n = 220) with two pathogens. The
                                                     most common pathogen isolated in this study was Escherichia coli (54.9%, n = 4121 among 7512) followed by
                                                     Enterococcus faecalis (11.7%, n = 878), Klebsiella pneumoniae (6.5%, n = 491), and Enterococcus faecium (5.3%,
                                                     n = 400) (Supplementary Table 1). Patients in the urine culture-positive group exhibited a significantly higher

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                                   Factor                                       Odds ratio   (95% confidence interval)   P value
                                   Age of higher risk                           1.967        (1.848–2.095)               < 0.0001
                                   Female                                       1.483        (1.389–1.584)               < 0.0001
                                   Hospitalized patient                         1.174        (1.096–1.259)               < 0.0001
                                   Test strip analysis
                                   SG (per 0.001 increase)                      0.979        (1.025–1.098)               < 0.0001
                                   pH (per 1.0 increase)                        1.061        (1.025–1.098)                0.0007
                                   Protein (per 1 grade increase)               0.979        (0.918–1.043)                0.5127
                                   Glucose (per 1 grade increase)               1.021        (0.984–1.06)                 0.2675
                                   Blood (per 1 grade increase)                 0.935        (0.894–0.978)                0.0035
                                   Nitrite (per 1 grade increase)               3.952        (3.679–4.246)               < 0.0001
                                   Leukocyte esterase (per 1 grade increase)    1.736        (1.691–1.782)               < 0.0001
                                   Digital flow morphology analysis
                                   RBC (per 1 × ­106/L increase)                1.000        (1.000–1.000)a              < 0.0001
                                                     6
                                   WBC (per 1 × ­10 /L increase)                1.000        (1.000–1.000)b              < 0.0001
                                   Epithelial cell (per 1 × ­106/L increase)    0.996        (0.995–0.998)               < 0.0001
                                   Cast (per 1 × ­106/L increase)               1.001        (0.994–1.008)                0.7592
                                   Bacteria (per 1 × ­106/L increase)           1.006        (1.005–1.007)               < 0.0001

                                  Table 2.  The results of multivariate analysis by logistic regression for the prediction of positive urine culture
                                  with 42,713 patients. a 1.000028 (1.000015–1.000041). b 1.000115 (1.000086–1.000145).

                                  proportion of high-risk age group (53.3% vs 35.7%, P < 0.0001) and lower proportion of males (33.8% vs 54.1%,
                                  P < 0.0001) than the urine culture-no growth or contamination group (Table 1 and Supplementary Table 2).

                                  The results of urinalysis according to the culture results. The results of test strip and sediment anal-
                                  yses according to the urine culture results are summarized in Table 1. Except for urine glucose, all parameters
                                  were significantly different between the two groups. By the multivariate binary logistic regression, three patient
                                  factors including high-risk age [odds ratio (OR), 1.967], female (OR, 1.483), and hospitalization (OR, 1.174)
                                  were significantly associated with positive results of the urine culture (P < 0.0001 for each) (Table 2). Among the
                                  test strip results, pH (OR, 1.061 per 1.0 increase; P = 0.0007), nitrite (OR, 3.952 per 1 grade increase; P < 0.0001),
                                  and LE (OR, 1.736 per 1 grade increase; P < 0.0001) were independent risk factors for positive urine culture.
                                  Among the parameters of automated sediment analysis, the numbers of RBCs (OR, 1.000 per 1 × ­106/L increase),
                                  WBCs (OR, 1.000 per 1 × ­106/L increase), epithelial cells (OR, 1.001 per 1 × ­106/L increase), and bacteria (OR,
                                  1.006 per 1 × ­106/L increase) showed significant associations with positive results of the urine culture (P < 0.0001
                                  for each).
                                      Among the variables exhibiting significant associations with positive urine culture, six variables including
                                  age of higher risk (OR, 2.069125), female (OR, 1.400648), nitrite (OR, 3.765457 per 1 grade increase), LE (OR,
                                  1.701586 per 1 grade increase), the number of WBCs (OR, 1.000121 per 1 × ­106/L increase), and the number
                                  of bacteria (OR, 1.004195 per 1 × ­106/L increase) were selected considering the effect size of each variable by
                                  multivariable binary logistic regression in the training dataset with 21,522 patients (P < 0.0001 for all variables;
                                  Supplementary Table 3). An equation to predict urine culture results was constructed with the constant and
                                  coefficients of independently significant variables as follows:
                                                                                                            1
                                          UTOPIA value =                                                                                              ×100
                                                                    1 + e(2.803456−0.727126x1−0.336935x2−1.325869x3−0.531561x4−0.000121x5−0.004186x6)
                                  where,

                                  •   x1 = 1, if a **patient is at high-risk age (≤ 1 or ≥ 70 years old), otherwise x1 = 0
                                  •   x2 = 1 for female; x2 = 0 for male
                                  •   x3 = grade of nitrite by test strip analysis (0.5 when the result is trace or weak positive)
                                  •   x4 = grade of LE by test strip analysis (0.5 when the result is trace or weak positive)
                                  •   x5 = number of WBCs by digital flow morphology analysis (1 × ­106/L)
                                  •   x6 = number of bacteria by digital flow morphology analysis (1 × ­106/L).

                                  Diagnostic performance of the UTOPIA value. To validate the diagnostic performance of the UTO-
                                  PIA value for predicting results of urine culture, ROC curves were constructed with the independent test data-
                                  set composed of 21,191 patients from different periods, and the AUC of the UTOPIA value was 0.837 (95%
                                  CI = 0.829–0.845), which is significantly higher than that of nitrite (AUC = 0.645; 95% CI = 0.637–0.653), LE
                                  (AUC = 0.758; 95% CI = 0.749–0.767), the number of bacteria (AUC = 0.753; 95% CI = 0.743–0.762), and the

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                                                Diagnostic performance (95% CI) for the prediction of urine culture positive   % Estimated culture ­reductiona/% false ­negativeb at a
                                                results in the test dataset                                                    given culture positive prevalence of
           Cutoff for
           UTOPIA value      Youden’s index     Sensitivity        Specificity         PPVc                NPVc                5.0%       10.0%      15.8%c       20.0%        25.0%
                                                0.972 (0.966–      0.232 (0.226–       0.192 (0.191–       0.978 (0.973–
            > 5.72           0.204                                                                                             22.2/0.6   21.1/1.3   20.0/2.2     19.1/2.9     18.1/3.8
                                                0.977)             0.238)              0.194)              0.982)
                                                0.950 (0.942–      0.330 (0.323–       0.210 (0.208–       0.972 (0.968–
            > 6.54           0.279                                                                                             31.6/0.8   30.2/1.7   28.6/2.8     27.4/3.7     26.0/4.9
                                                0.956)             0.337)              0.212)              0.976)
                                                0.904 (0.893–      0.490 (0.482–       0.250 (0.246–       0.964 (0.961–
            > 7.86           0.394                                                                                             47.0/1.0   45.0/2.1   42.7/3.6     41.1/4.7     39.1/6.1
                                                0.913)             0.497)              0.253)              0.968)
                                                0.661 (0.644–      0.862 (0.857–       0.473 (0.462–       0.931 (0.928–
           > 15.11           0.522                                                                                             83.6/2.0   81.0/4.2   77.9/6.9     75.7/9.0     73.1/11.6
                                                0.676)             0.867)              0.484)              0.934)
                                                0.596 (0.579–      0.901 (0.897–       0.531 (0.518–       0.922 (0.919–
           > 23.03           0.497                                                                                             87.6/2.3   85.1/4.7   82.3/7.8     80.2/10.1    77.7/13.0
                                                0.612)             0.905)              0.544)              0.925)
                                                0.498 (0.481–      0.950 (0.947–       0.651 (0.635–       0.910 (0.907–
           > 34.21           0.448                                                                                             92.8/2.7   90.5/5.6   87.9/9.0     86.0/11.7    83.8/15.0
                                                0.515)             0.953)              0.668)              0.912)
                                                0.118 (0.107–      0.998 (0.997–       0.900 (0.868–       0.857 (0.856–
           > 92.61           0.115                                                                                             99.2/4.5   98.6/8.9   97.9/14.3    97.5/18.1    96.9/22.8
                                                0.129)             0.998)              0.924)              0.859)

                                                Table 3.  Possible cutoffs and the utility of the UTOPIA value. CI confidence interval, PPV positive predictive
                                                value, NPV negative predictive value. a Assuming that the UTOPIA values are determined to be negative based
                                                on a given cutoff value and thus subsequent urine cultures are not carried out. b Proportion of cases with urine
                                                culture positive results among subjects showing negative by the UTOPIA value, i.e., 1—NPV at a given cutoff
                                                and culture positive prevalence. c The prevalence of positive urine culture in the test dataset was 15.8%.

                                                Figure 1.  Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis of the urinalysis in the prediction of urine
                                                culture positive results in the test dataset. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model 2 (combination of
                                                nitrite, leukocyte esterase, and WBC and bacteria counts) was higher than that of the model 1 (combination of
                                                WBC and bacteria counts) (P = 0.0002), and the UTOPIA value showed the highest AUC value among those of
                                                other tests (P < 0.0001).

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                                  number of WBCs (AUC = 0.779; 95% CI = 0.769–0.789) (P < 0.0001 for all comparison, Fig. 1). In addition, the
                                  UTOPIA value also exhibited higher AUC value than the other models including the Model 1 (AUC = 0.811;
                                  95% CI = 0.802–0.820) which consisted of WBCs and bacteria counts by automated sediment analysis, and the
                                  Model 2 (AUC = 0.817; 95% CI = 0.808–0.826) which was composed with LE, nitrite, and the variables of Model
                                  1 (Fig. 1).
                                       When using > 15.11 as a cutoff for the UTOPIA value, which showed the highest Youden’s index, the sensitiv-
                                  ity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 0.661, 0.862, 0.473, and
                                  0.931, respectively (Table 3). A cutoff value of > 6.54 exhibited sensitivity of 0.950 and specificity of 0.330, while
                                  a cutoff value of > 34.21 showed specificity of 0.950 and sensitivity of 0.498.

                                  Discussion
                                  Microscopic examination of urine particle is a useful tool for diagnosing UTI, although the gold standard for
                                  diagnosis is urine culture. To date, three different types of automated urine sediment analyzers have been intro-
                                  duced. Sysmex UF-1000i (Sysmex Corporation, Kobe, Japan) utilizes the flow cytometric method. This analyzer
                                  measures numbers of cells, bacteria, and casts by electrical impedance per flow sample volume, sizes the com-
                                  ponents by forward light-scatter, and nuclear and cytoplasmic characteristics using fluorescent ­dye9. Another
                                  instrument the cobas u701 (Roche Diagnostics International, Rotkreuz, Switzerland), which was first introduced
                                  as UriSed (77 Elektronika, Budapest, Hungary)10, takes 15 microscopic images per urine sample prepared in
                                  cuvettes that mimic glass slides used in manual microscopic examination, and the result images are analyzed
                                  by particle recognition s­ oftware11. The iQ200 investigated in this study is an automated digital imaging-based
                                  system that uses flow morphology analysis. In previous studies, the iQ200 system showed reliable performance
                                  in counting RBCs, WBCs, and epithelial cells in terms of imprecision and linearity and showed good correlation
                                  with manual microscopic sediment analysis and other automated a­ nalyzers8,12,13.
                                      There have been several studies to evaluate possible associations between the results of microscopic urine
                                  sediment examinations and those of urine culture. A meta-analysis for predicting positive urine culture by the
                                  results from the Sysmex UF-1000i or UF-100 systems showed good sensitivity, using the number of WBCs
                                  (pooled sensitivity, 0.87) and bacteria (pooled sensitivity, 0.92) counted by flow cytometry as i­ndicators14. The
                                  number of bacteria in urine specimens obtained by Accuri C6 (BD Biosciences, San Jose, CA, US) showed good
                                  correlation with the results of urine culture when a cutoff value for urine culture positive was ≥ ­105 CFU/mL15. A
                                  recent interlaboratory study exhibited that the absence of microorganisms in the iQ200 screen was the strongest
                                  solitary predictor for a negative culture result with a sensitivity of 90.5%, and higher sensitivity (95.2%) could
                                  be obtained by the algorithm based on the presence of microorganisms and the number of W          ­ BCs16. Another
                                  study with the iQ200 system exhibited an acceptable NPV of 97.7% and approximately 50% reduction of urine
                                  culture when using WBC ≥ 4/HPF as a cutoff in predicting urine culture results, but the PPV was only 24.5% in
                                  the same s­ tudy17. The scoring system suggested by Foudraine et al., which was composed of clinical symptoms
                                  including dysuria and urgency and the number of WBCs obtained by the iQ200 analyzer, gave good diagnostic
                                  performance with a high AUC value of 0.950 for predicting positive blood ­cultures18. However, the diagnostic
                                  performance of a test could vary according to the characteristics and composition of cases and controls included
                                  in each study, thus it would be difficult to directly compare diagnostic performance among the studies. In addi-
                                  tion, the definition of significant growth in urine culture in each study was different, thus it is also difficult to
                                  generalize the diagnostic performance of a test in the literature.
                                      The UTOPIA value was designed to predict the positive urine culture with the variables including demo-
                                  graphic conditions including age of higher risk for UTI and sex, results of urinalysis including nitrite, LE, and the
                                  numbers of WBCs and bacteria, and was validated with an independent dataset consisting of 21,191 patients in
                                  a different time period from the subjects in the training dataset. The distribution of the prevalence of UTI along
                                  with age was a J-shape with a higher frequency among the very young and a gradual increase with age, and the
                                  prevalence was significantly higher for women than men, as previously ­described19. By simply adding these two
                                  risk factors as variables of the prediction algorithm, the UTOPIA value exhibited better diagnostic performance
                                  than the other models those are consisted of only the variables from urinalysis (Fig. 1). This work provides a
                                  novel approach to predict the result of urine culture with the patients’ risk factors and the results of urinalysis.
                                  In addition, the UTOPIA value was designed with easy-to use data in order to incorporate into a laboratory
                                  information system easily, and thus can be automatically calculated immediately after urinalysis.
                                      When validated with the independent test dataset, the UTOPIA value provided a good AUC value of 0.837
                                  in the prediction of positive urine culture with high NPVs regardless of applied cutoffs. With the prevalence of
                                  our dataset (15.8%), the NPV was 0.978 (95% CI = 0.973–0.982) when applying a cutoff for the UTOPIA value
                                  of > 5.72, and 20.0% of total culture cases was estimated to be reduced at the expense of 2.2% of false negative
                                  results, i.e. 1—NPV based on the UTOPIA value (Table 3). Since the prevalence of the urine culture positive
                                  results can vary depending on factors such as the country, region, and patient age, appropriate cutoffs for the
                                  UTOPIA value would need to be applied for each clinical laboratory. The cost of urine culture according to the
                                  countries would be also considered. Using different cutoffs according to the allowable false negatives in each
                                  laboratory, the UTOPIA value would be utilized to reduce unnecessary urine cultures. Meanwhile, the utility of
                                  the UTOPIA value would be low if it is used for determining whether to start early empirical antibiotic treatment
                                  before the culture results are reported. In this instance, PPV of the UTOPIA value was 0.900 even when applying
                                  a high cutoff of > 92.61. Consequently, it can be applied to only 2.1% of the total patients because there would
                                  be only small number of patients showing positive results by the UTOPIA value with that high cutoff, and there
                                  would be false positive cases of 10.0%, i.e. 1—PPV, among the 2.1% of total patients as well.
                                      In our data, the proportion of urine culture contamination cases was 28.0%, and they included in the con-
                                  trol group to make a practical and accurate model for predicting the results of urine culture in actual clinical

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                                            Figure 2.  Study design and classification of cases. Solid lines indicate cases included in the analysis, while
                                            dotted lines represent excluded subjects.

                                            microbiology laboratories. In addition, the contamination group exhibited intermediate characteristics when
                                            comparing with urine culture negative and positive groups (Supplementary Table 2). If contamination cases were
                                            excluded from the regression model, the 1diagnostic performance of UTOPIA value would be over-estimated.
                                                One limitation of our study is that it was performed with the retrospective design, and 19.1% of total cases
                                            were excluded due to inaccurate quantitative results obtained by iQ200. Therefore, possible selection bias would
                                            be considered when interpreting our results. However, a large number of patients was included to minimize
                                            unpredictable bias and to enhance the statistical power with narrow CIs for the results in this study, and the
                                            study population was divided into two independent datasets including training and test datasets to improve the
                                            reliability and external validity of our results. Despite this effort, the validation of diagnostic performance of the
                                            UTOPIA value in a single hospital would be another limitation of this study, even though the independent dataset
                                            from a different time period was used in the validation. Multicenter evaluation for the diagnostic performance
                                            of the UTOPIA value calculated by the equation in this study would be helpful in the generalized application
                                            of the UTOPIA value. Additionally, we investigated the results from a single type of test strip analyzer and flow
                                            morphology analyzer among several automated urinalysis systems each utilizing different test principles and
                                            showing different semi-quantitative results for chemical parameters including LE. Separate prediction algorithms
                                            according to the type of urinalysis systems could also be developed by applying a similar approach to our study.
                                                In conclusion, we designed a novel prediction algorithm for urine culture results based on the results of
                                            urine test strip analysis and digital flow morphology analysis, namely the UTOPIA value. The UTOPIA value
                                            showed good diagnostic performance with possibility of reducing unnecessary urine culture and flexibility to
                                            apply different cutoff values. This prediction algorithm can be used to predict urine culture results 1 to 3 days
                                            before the culture results are reported, and also has the advantage of being easily incorporated electronically into
                                            a laboratory information system. Further evaluation on the usefulness of the UTOPIA value in various clinical
                                            settings should be considered.

                                            Materials and methods
                                            Study design and patients. From July 2015 to April 2020, a total of 62,656 patients were subjected to
                                            urine cultures for suspected UTIs in a tertiary hospital in South Korea. Among them, 52,772 patients were sub-
                                            jected to urinalyses within 6 h before or after urine culture, and 10,059 patients were excluded due to incomplete
                                            or inaccurate automated urine sediment analysis results. Finally, 42,713 patients were enrolled in this study
                                            (Fig. 2). Patients included in this study were divided into two datasets by the time of receipt: (1) a training dataset
                                            with 21,522 patients: cases requested between July 2015 and December 2017, and (2) a test dataset with 21,191

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                                  patients: cases requested between January 2018 and April 2020. This retrospective cross-sectional case–control
                                  study, designated the UTOPIA study (Urinalysis-based Timely and On-the-spot Prediction of Infection Algo-
                                  rithm), was designed to develop a simple and useful algorithm to predict urine culture results using results of
                                  urinalysis. Patient characteristics including demographic information and type of admission were investigated
                                  by reviewing electronic medical records. The protocol of this study was approved by the Institutional Review
                                  Board of Gangnam Severance Hospital (Approval No. 3-2020-0169), and the requirement of an informed con-
                                  sent of the participants was waived by the IRB. All methods used in this study were also performed in accordance
                                  with the relevant guidelines and regulations.

                                  Urine culture. The results of urine culture were retrieved from the electronic medical records. Urine culture
                                  was performed according to the standard protocol of the local microbiology laboratory. Briefly, one microliter of
                                  urine sample was inoculated on MacConkey agar and Blood agar, and the number of colonies was counted after
                                  an 18-h incubation to calculate bacterial load. Bacterial identification was performed using a Matrix-Assisted
                                  Laser Desorption Ionization Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (MALDI-TOF MS). To make an accurate pre-
                                  diction model for positive urine culture, the results of urine cultures were categorized into “Positive” and “No
                                  growth or contamination”.

                                  Automated urinalysis with digital flow morphology analysis. The results of test strip analysis and
                                  sediment analysis by digital flow morphology analysis were retrieved from the electronic medical records. Auto-
                                  mated urinalysis were performed using the iRICELL system (Beckman Coulter Inc., Brea, CA), which consisted
                                  of the iChem VELOCITY urine chemistry analyzer and the iQ200 SPRINT urine microscopy analyzer, follow-
                                  ing the manufacturer’s instructions. For the iQ200 instrument, approximately 1.3 mL of urine passes through
                                  a flow cell, and a digital camera captures 500 images of magnified sample. Then, the Auto-particle Recognition
                                  (APR) software (current version 7.1.4) interprets the captured images. The flow morphology interpretation with
                                  flags for suspicious errors or abnormal results by the APR software were reviewed with on-screen images by
                                  operators. Based on comprehensive consideration with on-screen images, previous urinalysis results of the same
                                  patient, and the test strip results concurrently obtained by iChem, cases with discrepant interpretations between
                                  operators and the analyzing software were subjected to manual microscopic sediment examination. If needed,
                                  the results for these cases were corrected as the number of cells per high-power field by manual microscopic
                                  examination, and were excluded from our study due to inaccurate quantitative values for RBCs, WBCs, and epi-
                                  thelial cells by the iQ200 analyzer in those cases. During the study period, three quality control materials for the
                                  iChem VELOCITY including IRISpec CA, CB, and CC (Beckman Coulter Inc.) and two materials for the iQ200
                                  including iQ positive and negative controls (Beckman Coulter Inc.) were run every eight hours.

                                  Definition. The high-risk age group for UTI was defined as patients younger than 2 years or older than
                                  69 years considering high positive rates of urine culture according to national surveillance s­ tudy20 and positive
                                  rates of urine culture according to age in our data. A positive urine culture was determined when a single uropath-
                                  ogen (bacterial load ≥ 10,000 CFU/mL) or two uropathogens (bacterial load of each species ≥ 100,000 CFU/mL)
                                  were recovered. Uropathogens include Gram-negative bacilli, Staphylococcus aureus, Candida species, Entero-
                                  coccus species, and Aerococcus urinae, as previously ­described21. Cases with more than three species recovered
                                  from urine culture were considered as contamination regardless of the quantity of bacterial g­ rowth21.

                                  Statistical analysis. All statistical analyses were performed by Analyse-it for Microsoft Excel Method
                                  Evaluation Edition version 5.65.3 (Analyse-it Software, Ltd., Leeds, UK) and IBM SPSS Statistics 25 (IBM Corp.,
                                  Armonk, NY, US). Patient characteristics and the results of urinalysis according to the groups classified by the
                                  urine culture results were compared with chi-square tests for categorical variables and Mann–Whitney U tests
                                  for continuous variables. Binary logistic regression with the results of urine culture as the dependent variable
                                  and those of urinalysis and patients’ characteristics as the multivariate independent variables was performed
                                  to determine the coefficient for each independent variable in the regression model. With the regression model
                                  equation, the UTOPIA value for each case in the test dataset was calculated to predict the probability for positive
                                  urine culture, and diagnostic performance of the UTOPIA value for the prediction of urine culture results was
                                  evaluated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) value. All statistical analyses in this study were consid-
                                  ered significant when the P value was < 0.05.

                                  Received: 3 November 2020; Accepted: 26 February 2021

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                                            Author contributions
                                            D.K.: writing-original draft and data analysis; S.C.O.: data collect and analysis; C.L.: data analysis; Y.K.: writing-
                                            review and editing; Y.P.: conceptualization, supervision, data analysis, and writing-review and editing; S.H.J.:
                                            conceptualization and supervision.

                                            Competing interests
                                            The authors declare no competing interests.

                                            Additional information
                                            Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at https​://doi.
                                            org/10.1038/s4159​8-021-85404​-1.
                                            Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to Y.P.
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