Quant Yearly Outlook 2021 - Easy global liquidity to drive broad based performance in equities in 2021 - ICICI Direct
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December 18, 2020
Quant Yearly Outlook - 2021
Easy global liquidity to drive broad based performance in equities in 2021
• PRODUCT 1
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
• PRODUCT 2
Research Analyst:
Raj Deepak Singh Nandish Patel Dipesh Dedhia Mohit Agarwal
rajdeepak.singh@icicisecurities.com nandish.patel@icicisecurities.com dipesh.dedhia@icicisecurities.com mohit.agarwal@icicisecurities.comInvestments in riskier assets to continue in 2021
Unprecedented stimulus to continue
2021: Year of no rate hike
Dollar weakness to attract riskier assets
Currency stability to benefit India
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
FII’s Sectoral Investment Analysis
2021: Focus to be on midcaps equities
Quant Picks for 2021
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 2Unprecedented stimulus to remain in force
Total stimulus as percentage of GDP Quantum of stimulus by major economies
Russia 3.4% 9 US Japan Euro zone
European 8
4.3%
Union
7
Indonesia 4.4%
6
Trillion USD
Italy 4.9% 5
Argentina 6.0% 4
3
France 6.0%
2
India 6.9%
1
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
China 7.0% 0
Dec-04
Jun-10
Dec-15
Jan-04
Jan-15
Mar-02
Nov-05
Mar-13
Nov-16
Jul-20
Jul-09
Sep-18
Sep-07
Aug-08
Aug-19
Oct-06
Oct-17
Apr-12
May-11
Feb-03
Feb-14
Germany 8.9%
Brazil 12.0%
Turkey 12.8%
United
States
13.2% Magnitude of fiscal stimulus for Covid-19
Australia 14.0% crisis is huge even compared to subprime
Canada 16.4%
crisis in 2008. All major economies have
pledged further liquidity support in future
Japan 21.1%
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 32021: Year of no rate hike..
Global interest rates to remain low Inflation no major concern
4.0% US FED BOE ECB BOJ RBI Repo (RHS) 9.0% 9.0% US Euro Zone UK Japan India
3.5% 8.0% 8.0%
7.0%
3.0% 7.0%
6.0%
2.5% 6.0%
5.0%
2.0% 5.0% 4.0%
1.5% 4.0% 3.0%
2.0%
1.0% 3.0%
1.0%
0.5% 2.0%
0.0%
0.0% 1.0% -1.0%
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
-0.5% 0.0% -2.0%
Oct-16
Feb-12
Jun-14
Feb-19
May-17
Sep-12
Sep-19
Aug-15
Mar-16
Jul-11
Jul-18
Jan-15
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-20
Nov-13
Nov-20
Feb-19
May-17
May-18
May-19
Apr-13
Apr-20
May-20
Dec-10
Dec-17
Aug-17
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Nov-17
Nov-19
Nov-16
Nov-18
Nov-20
• As the Covid-19 pandemic continues to remain a bigger concern for the global economy, major central banks around
the globe have reduced interest rates to near zero to address the situation while emerging economies, including India,
have also reduced interest rates to historic lows
• While developed economies are facing deflationary pressure, the monetary easing around the world is expected to
continue in the coming year also as the global economy will need more fiscal support to recover. However, higher
inflation remains a major concern for India. Still, RBI is not looking at inflation and has clearly mentioned its pro-growth
stance. Thus, policy rates in India are also likely to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 4Dollar weakening to benefit riskier assets..
Dollar Index trend remains negative amid large stimulus
105
103
Dollar continues to decline against a basket of
101
major currencies as a bigger stimulus package
99 in the US after Joe Biden’s victory prompts
97 more investments into riskier assets and
95 reduces demand for the safe haven greenback
93
91
89
87
85 Investments rise into riskier commodities
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
May-18
May-19
May-20
Mar-18
Mar-19
Sep-18
Mar-20
Sep-20
Sep-19
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-19
Nov-20
Nov-18
Nov-19
Gold Silver Copper Zinc Nickel
160
Normalized Performance
140
As dollar continues to weaken against a 120
basket of major currencies, we have seen
investments into riskier assets, including 100
commodities in 2020. This is expected to
continue next year as well 80
60
May-20
Oct-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Sep-20
Jan-20
Jul-20
Apr-20
Dec-20
Nov-20
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 5Currency stability to benefit India..
Rupee remains resilient India’s forex reserves (billion US$)
Chinese Yuan 6.5% 600
Taiwanese $ 6.1%
550
South Korea 6.0%
500
Phillipines 5.4%
Japanese Yen 4.9% 450
EM Index 2.9%
400
Thai Baht 0.5%
350
British Pound -1.5%
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Mar-18
Nov-18
Nov-19
Mar-20
Nov-20
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-18
Mar-19
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
May-18
May-19
May-20
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Indonesiah rupiah -1.8%
Indian Rupee -3.2%
South African Rand -5.8%
• The rupee remains stable despite dollar weakening, which
has affected other EM currencies
Dollar Index -6.2%
Australian $ -7.2%
• Resilience of the rupee came with RBI’s intervention to
boost exports and bring more foreign funds as Indian
Euro -7.8% forex reserves continue to climb to record highs
Russian ruble -14.7%
• The rupee’s resilience became more prominent
Brazilian Real -18.9% considering record FII inflows were seen in Indian equities
P erformance of major currencies agaiunst US$ in 2020 in the last few months.
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 6Indian equities remain favourite for FIIs
FII equity investments in Emerging markets ( in billion US$)
India
• India has remained one of the
Russia*
favourite FII destinations for
investment in equities among
Philippines 10 Year 5 Year 1 Year emerging markets
Indonesiaa • India has been the biggest
beneficiary of foreign flows
among emerging markets ex
Malaysia
China
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Thailand • In the last one year India saw
inflows exceeding $18 billion
South Africa while most Asian peers apart
from China are still YTD negative
Brazil
• The flows seen in November and
December are one of the highest
Taiwan
ever seen in Indian equities
South Korea
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Billions
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, NSE, NSDL, Capitalline
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 7FII’s major sectoral activities
FII inflow (QoQ)
140000 • FIIs played a pivotal role in shaping Nifty returns.
120000 Since 2012 they have largely remained net buyers
100000 of equities and pumped in nearly | 6 lakh crore in
80000 Indian equities
60000
40000 • FII flows have remained positive in 24 quarters in
20000 the last eight years (32 quarters). Out of this, only
0 four quarters have seen negative returns for the
-20000 Nifty. In the remaining eight quarters, despite FII
-40000 outflows, the Nifty managed to end positive in
-60000 three quarters
Q1 12
Q3 13
Q1 15
Q3 15
Q3 16
Q1 17
Q1 18
Q3 18
Q3 19
Q1 20
Q3 12
Q1 13
Q1 14
Q3 14
Q1 16
Q3 17
Q1 19
Q3 20
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
• Highest ever outflow was observed in the first
Nifty returns (QoQ) quarter of 2020 when FIIs sold almost | 49800
crore worth of equities, which resulted in a 29%
30.0%
cut in the Nifty due to implementation of lockdown
20.0% across the globe post Covid
10.0%
• In quarter four of 2020 they pumped in highest
0.0%
ever inflows in equities where the Nifty delivered
-10.0% close to 20% returns
-20.0%
• In just the last two months, FIIs have poured
-30.0%
almost | 1 lakh crore in Indian equities. This has
-40.0% resulted in a broad based performance across
Q1 12
Q3 12
Q1 13
Q3 13
Q1 14
Q3 14
Q1 15
Q3 15
Q1 16
Q3 16
Q1 17
Q3 17
Q1 18
Q3 18
Q1 19
Q3 19
Q1 20
Q3 20
sectors
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, NSE, NSDL, Capitalline
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 8FII’s sectoral investments
Sectoral allocation of FII flows since 2012
25% FII's Sectoral contribution
21%
20%
• In the last two years, sectors like
14% banking & financials, saw the highest
15% 12%
inflows. Overall also, the BFSI space
10% 8%
attracted the highest inflows while
5% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
continued capital raising by the sector
0% can explain the high flows
-5% -3%
-10% -7%
• On the other hand, technology and
FMCG sectors saw net outflows to the
Media
Insurance
Technology
Oil & Gas
Pharma
FMCG
Banks
Metals
Auto
NBFC
Telecom
Capital Goods
tune of -3% and -7%, respectively, of
the total inflows seen in India. It
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
happened despite bluechip stocks from
20% 19%
18%
17%
Sectoral Returns (CAGR) 17% both sectors delivering tremendous
18%
16% 15% returns in the last eight years. Profit
14% taking at higher levels can explain the
12%
12% 10%
outflows seen in these sectors
10% 8%
8% 7%
6% • In the last eight years, FII’s favourite
6% sector was banking, financials, oil & gas
4% 2% and capital goods. In last three years,
2% 1%
insurance as a sector got the attention
0%
of FIIs and attracted significant flows
Media
Technology
Insurance
Oil & Gas
Pharma
FMCG
Metals
Banks
Auto
NBFC
Telecom
Capital Goods
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, NSE, NSDL, Capitalline
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 9FII’s major sectoral activities
FII’s inflow vs. sectoral return - 2020 FII’s inflow vs. sectoral return - 2019 FII’s inflow vs. sectoral return - 2018
FII (in cr) Sector return FII (in cr) Sector return
25000 60% FII (in cr) Sector return 15000 30%
46% 40000 25% 4%
16% 19% 20%
10000 26% 11%
20000 56% 50% 17% 4% 2%
7%
30000 20% 5000 -2% 10%
15000 40% -6%
0%
20000 6% 11% 10% 15% 0
10000 11% 30% -10%
10000 4% 10% -5000
5000 13% 20% -15% -20%
4% 7% 0 5% -10000 -22%
-40% -30%
0 10%
-4% -2% -3% -3% -15000 -40%
-5000 0% -10000 -4% -3% 0%
-20000 -50%
-10000 -10% -20000 -5%
NBFC
Banks
Insurance
Oil & Gas
Telecom
Cap Goods
Auto
Media
Pharma
Tech
FMCG
NBFC
Banks
Insurance
Telecom
Oil & Gas
Media
Pharma
Tech
FMCG
NBFC
Banks
Insurance
Oil & Gas
Telecom
Cap Goods
Metals
Pharma
Tech
FMCG
FII’s inflow vs. sectoral return - 2017 FII’s inflow vs. sectoral return - 2016 FII’s inflow vs. sectoral return - 2015
FII (in cr) Sector return 20000 27% FII (in cr) Sector return 30% FII (in cr) Sector return
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
40000 60% 20000 20%
49% 15000 16%
30000 38% 20% 15000 10%
42% 41% 50% 10000 8% 7% 6%
20000 33% 5000
3% 10% 10000 0%
31% 40% 4%
10000 0% 2%
0 0% 5000 -3% -10%
30% -4%
0 -5000 -10%
20% -8% -13% 0 -6% -8% -20%
-10000 -10000 -22%
-31%
10% -20% -5000 -30%
-20000 1% 10% -15000
-20000 -30% -10000 -40%
-30000 0%
NBFC
Banks
Telecom
Oil & Gas
Cap Goods
Auto
Pharma
Tech
FMCG
NBFC
Oil & Gas
Cap Goods
Auto
Metals
Pharma
Tech
FMCG
NBFC
Banks
Oil & Gas
Telecom
Cap Goods
Pharma
Tech
FMCG
• FIIs’ favourite sectors remained financials, oil & gas and FMCG where most flows were observed. In the last two years, FIIs have
pumped in more than | 1 lakh crore each year from which major money flows were seen in the insurance space
• The pharma space gave strong returns with the flows. Recently, we have seen strong inflows in the space. We expect it to
attract continued money flow in 2021 as well, which should lead to outperformance of pharma stocks
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, NSE, NSDL, Capitalline
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 10Score based approach for stocks filtration
We have analysed all F&O stocks based on their FII holding from 2012 to September
Quant Thematic
2020 in line with the FII flows. Stocks where we have seen continued rise in FII stakes
have been chosen
F&O Universe (130 stocks)
Step 1: Stocks filtering based on the total FII
stake since 2012
We have considered a period of 2012
to 2016, 2016 to 2018 and 2019 to till
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Step 2: Dividing the eight year Q3 along with the net change from
2012 to till date as our four time
period into three different market
frames
Year on Year FII stake was cycles in line with market
analysed for all the F&O stocks movement
Step 3: Ranking
stocks based on FII
stake change
Final stocks Based on four different time frame, we have given
selection scores from 0 to 4 on the basis of stocks gaining
FII ownership in different time frames
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, NSE, NSDL, Capitalline
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 11Sectoral scoreboard as per change in FII ownership
Auto Energy/Metal
FIIs increased their stakes in Bharat forge and Escorts Despite subdued price performance FIIs raised their stakes in energy stocks
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0
0
Escorts
Bosch
Hero Moto
MRF
Bharat Forge
Apollo Tyres
Tata Motors
Amara Raja
Eicher Motors
Motherson
Balkrishna
TVS Motor
IGL
IOC
NMDC
Jindal Steel
ONGC
SAIL
BPCL
Coal India
HPCL
Petronet
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
IT/Telecom/Media Pharma
Steady inflow is being witnessed in technology, media and telecom stocks Incremental FIIs inflow is being witnessed in Biocon since 2012
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
Biocon
Auro Pharma
Lupin
Torrent Pharma
Apollo Hosp
Mindtree
Cadila Health
Infosys
Info Edge
HCL Tech
Coforge
Tech Mah
Divi's Lab
TCS
Bharti Airtel
PVR
Wipro
Zee Ent
Dr Reddy's
Glenmark
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, NSE, NSDL, Capitalline
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 122
0
1
3
4
Jubilant Food.
Page Ind
December 18, 2020
Britannia Ind
Asian Paints
0
1
2
3
4
Berger Paints
Adani Ent
Reliance
Torrent Power
Consumption
BEL
Nestle
Havells
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, NSE, NSDL, Capitalline
NTPC Titan
PFC
REC Ltd Godrej Cons
Godrej Pro
Cummins Marico
Jubilant and Britannia are catching the attention of FIIs
L&T
Siemens
Others
Ramco Cement
SRF
Tata Chem
3
0
1
2
4
UPL
Kotak Mah
FIIs are raising stake in power and Infra stocks
Adani Ports
Container Cor Chola Fin
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Sectoral scoreboard as per change in FII ownership
Power Grid Axis Bank
DLF IndusInd Bank
Tata Power
SBI
Bajaj Finance
Max Financial
L&T Fin
BFSI
M & M Fin
Piramal Ent
FIIs participation continues in BFSI
Shriram Trans.
Muthoot Fin
HDFC
LIC Housing
Manappuram Fin.
13
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity ResearchNifty may target Sigma level of 14700
Nifty target near 14700
The Nifty bounced sharply from its long term mean near 8500, which was also
seen in 2008 when the Nifty made its bottom near its long term mean. We
expect it to gradually move towards its mean+3*Sigma levels of 14700 in
coming months, which has been the Nifty target in all major positive trends.
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 14Nifty performance likely to be broad based…
Market cap ratio (Top 10 Nifty stocks vs. Nifty)
0.6
As the given ratio
is declining, it
0.55 indicates that the
Declining ratio means Nifty components
lower spectrum of
other than top 10 to also participate in ~30%
the Nifty has
2021
0.5 started performing
0.45
~30%
0.4
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
0.35
Dec-10
Jul-11
Feb-12
Sep-12
Apr-13
Nov-13
Jun-14
Jan-15
Aug-15
Mar-16
Oct-16
May-17
Dec-17
Jul-18
Feb-19
Sep-19
Apr-20
Nov-20
As per the previous observation in 2012 the ratio gave a breakout and appreciated by 30%. Post that,
participation was noticed from the low weighted stocks of the Nifty. Similar observation was made in
2018. Post a breakout, it moved up by 30% and has now started declining
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 15Midcap/Nifty ratio: Suggests midcap outperformance in 2021
Price Ratio ( Nifty Midcap/Nifty)
2.20
~70% • Ratio of midcap index and the Nifty was
continuously declining suggesting the
2.00
underperformance of midcap index vis-à-vis
the Nifty since 2017. However, in the past
1.80 couple of months, the ratio has started
reverting from support level of 1.40 amid a
~50% broader market recovery
1.60
• As per the previous observation, there was
~30% correction in 2008, 2013 and 2018,
1.40
respectively, followed by an outperformance
~-30% of midcap index by 50-70% in 2007 and
1.20
2017. Hence, we can conclude that a similar
outperformance trend should be seen in the
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
~-30% coming years
1.00 ~-30%
3
• The Z score of price ratio (between Nifty
Midcap/Nifty) had revered after testing -2*
2
sigma levels. Acceleration in the midcap
1 index was observed when the Z score
0 turned positive. This is visible in the current
-1 phase. We expect the Z score to continue
towards 2 sigma levels
-2
-3 • Hence, the top stocks of Nifty midcap 100
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
index should remain in focus along with its
other components
Z-Score(100) Sigma Band Sigma Band
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 16Quant Picks for 2021
Quant Picks for 2021
Initiation Upside
Stocks Sectors Target Stoploss
Range Potential
Bharti Airtel Telecom 490-510 620 440 22%
Biocon Pharma 445-465 580 385 25%
Tech Mahindra Technology 900-930 1160 775 25%
Bharat Forge Auto 525-550 690 455 26%
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Petronet LNG Oil&Gas 248-258 325 218 26%
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 17Quant Pick: Buy Biocon in the range of | 445-465;
Target: | 580; Stop loss: | 385; Time Frame: 12 months
Data Snapshot Delivery Z-Score
2.0
Spot 465.00 Lower volatility and pick-up in
1.5
Beta 0.68 delivery Z score suggests ongoing
1.0
12M Avg Price (|) 371 accumulation in the stock
Z-Score
0.5
12M Avg Volume (Shares) 5844090 0.0
3M Avg Roll (%) 64% -0.5
HV 30 Day (% Annualised) 23.11 -1.0
17-Oct-20
25-Oct-20
4-Dec-20
1-Oct-20
9-Oct-20
23-Sep-20
2-Nov-20
10-Nov-20
18-Nov-20
26-Nov-20
Biocon has continuously found support near its mean+1*sigma levels.
FIIs have also shown faith in the stock and increased their stake
continuously in it. Going forward, the positive bias in the stock should
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
remain intact above its mean+1*sigma levels
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 18Quant Pick: Buy Tech Mahindra in the range of | 900-930;
Target: | 1160; Stop loss: | 775; Time Frame: 12 months
Data Snapshot Delivery Z-Score
1.5
Spot 930.00
1.0
Beta 0.76
0.5
12M Avg Price (|) 690 Delivery Z-score started moving
Z-Score
0.0
12M Avg Volume (Shares) 4658420 towards 1 indicating buying
3M Avg Roll (%) 64.44% interest at lower levels -0.5
-1.0
HV 30 Day (% Annualised) 30.70
17-Oct-20
25-Oct-20
4-Dec-20
1-Oct-20
9-Oct-20
23-Sep-20
2-Nov-20
10-Nov-20
18-Nov-20
26-Nov-20
Tech Mahindra has continuously found a directional trend from its mean+1*sigma
levels. Among technology stocks, this is one of the few stocks where FIIs have
increased their stake. The mean+1*sigma support for the stock is placed near | 800
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
levels, above which positive bias seems likely to continue
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 19Quant Pick: Buy Petronet LNG in the range of | 248-258;
Target: | 325; Stop loss: | 218; Time Frame: 12 months
Data Snapshot Delivery Z-Score
1.5
Spot 258.00 Lower volatility in the stock along
Beta 0.82 with sharp increase in delivery Z
1.0
12M Avg Price (|) 233.75 score suggests better risk reward at 0.5
Z-Score
12M Avg Volume (Shares) 3842846 current levels. 0.0
3M Avg Roll (%) 53.23% -0.5
HV 30 Day (% Annualised) 27.49 -1.0
17-Oct-20
25-Oct-20
4-Dec-20
1-Oct-20
9-Oct-20
23-Sep-20
2-Nov-20
10-Nov-20
18-Nov-20
26-Nov-20
Petronet LNG has been a market performer in the last three years and
consolidated below near mean+2*sigma levels. In the recent market move,
the stock was able to move above these levels and should find fresh positive
momentum
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 20e
Quant Pick: Buy Bharat Forge in the range ofs| 525-550; s
Target: | 690; Stop loss: | 455; Time Frame: a12 months a
f f
t t
Data Snapshot Delivery Z-Score e
e 2.0
Spot 550.00
r 1.5
r
Beta 1.33 Significant high delivery volume was
12M Avg Price (|) 419 r while the stock 1.0 b
seen in the last quarter
Z-Score
12M Avg Volume (Shares) 2954657 continues to outperform e indicating
0.5
0.0
r
3M Avg Roll (%) 61.64% aggressive buying. e
HV 30 Day (% Annualised) 35.24 a -0.5
c
-1.0
a
17-Oct-20
25-Oct-20
4-Dec-20
1-Oct-20
9-Oct-20
23-Sep-20
2-Nov-20
10-Nov-20
18-Nov-20
26-Nov-20
h c
Mean levels for Bharat Forge have acted as trend decider for the stock. It has h
witnessed significant directional moves after breaching these levels on either i
directions in the past. The recent up move above | 450 levels is likely to trigger n i
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
the fresh positive bias in the stock n
g
t g
h t
e h
s e
e s
l e
e l
v e
e v
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 l Equity Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail e 21
lQuant Pick: Buy Bharti Airtel in the range of | 490-510;
Target: | 620; Stop loss: | 440; Time Frame: 12 months
Data Snapshot Delivery Z-Score
Spot 510.00 2.0
Beta 0.79 Pick-up in delivery volumes at lower 1.5
12M Avg Price (|) 504 levels suggests healthy upsides 1.0
Z-Score
12M Avg Volume (Shares) 20433121 expected. The volatility in the stock has 0.5
3M Avg Roll (%) 65.14% also reduced significantly favouring 0.0
HV 30 Day (% Annualised) 29.60 upsides -0.5
-1.0
17-Oct-20
25-Oct-20
4-Dec-20
1-Oct-20
9-Oct-20
23-Sep-20
2-Nov-20
10-Nov-20
18-Nov-20
26-Nov-20
Bharti Airtel has seen sharp moves last year as it move out of the range prevailing for
the last many years. With liquidity flow likely to remain higher, stocks like Bharti Airtel
are likely to outperform. Moreover, the stock is likely to remain positive till it holds above
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
its long term mean levels in the coming months.
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 22Quant Yearly Picks performance of 2020
Quant Yearly Picks performance - 2020
Stocks Sectors Initiation Range Target Stoploss Rem arks
Divis Lab Pharmaceuticals 1790-1830 2280 1560 Target Achieved
Tata Consumer Consumption 312-324 410 271 Target Achieved
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
IGL Oil&Gas 395-410 510 343 Target Achieved
HDFC Finance 2285-2335 2880 2015 Exit at cost
Wipro Technology 232-242 298 179 Stoploss Triggered
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 23Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road no.7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Source : Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research , NSE, NSDL, Capitalline
December 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 24Disclaimer
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