Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN

 
Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN
July 2019
               Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair
               Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary

 HOUSING AND
    CARE FOR
OLDER PEOPLE

Rental Housing
For An Ageing
Population
Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN
Contents

                                  03                                  27
                                  Foreword                            Chapter 3. Housing supply
                                                                      and demand: solutions

                                  05
                                                                      3.1 Building new homes to suit all ages

                                                                      31
                                  Conclusions and Recommendations

                                  11
                                                                      3.2	Substantial increase in
                                                                           social provision
                                  Chapter 1. Background

                                                                      33
                                  1.1 Membership and purpose

                                  12
                                                                      3.3	Specialist provision by the private
                                                                           rented sector
                                  1.2 The ageing population

                                                                      35

                                  13                                  3.4	Helping older owners into appropriate
                                  1.3 Housing for older people             rented housing

                                  18                                  36
                                  Chapter 2. The emerging crisis      3.5 Intergenerational rental housing
                                  2.1 O
                                       lder people and the private
                                      rented sector

                                  23
                                  2.2	Older people and the social
                                       rented sector

                                  26
                                  2.3 Older homeowners

                                  This Inquiry was supported           This is not an official publication of
                                  by Peabody                           the House of Commons or the House
                                                                       of Lords. It has not been approved
                                                                       by either House or its committees.
                                                                       All-Party Parliamentary Groups are
                                                                       informal groups of Members of both
                                                                       Houses with a common interest in
                                                                       particular issues. The views expressed
                                                                       in this report are those of the
                                                                       inquiry members.

02 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population
Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN
Chair’s Foreword                                                    •	The absence of lifetime security of
                                                                       tenure is unsettling; the possibility of
                                                                       being required to leave at short notice
                                                                       – a “Sword of Damocles” – is not good
                                                                       for one’s peace of mind;
                                                                    •	The poor condition of some properties
                                                                       is particularly bad for the health and
                                                                       wellbeing of older people. A quarter
                                                                       of all privately rented properties are
                    Over recent years our All-Party
                                                                       “non-decent” – often because they
                    Parliamentary Group (APPG) has looked
                                                                       are cold and damp – and these are
                    at the housing needs and opportunities
                                                                       disproportionately occupied by
                    for older people, producing a series of
                                                                       older people;
                    Inquiry reports on Housing for an Ageing
                                                                    •	The chances of securing necessary
                    Population, known as HAPPI. Because
                                                                       adaptations – from handrails to
                    the great majority of those over pension
                                                                       stairlifts – is much lower in the PRS
                    age are owner-occupiers (including
                                                                       than in other tenures. Councils may be
                    leaseholders), we have concentrated on
                                                                       reluctant to provide Disabled Facilities
                    the people in this tenure. Homeowners
                                                                       Grants because the tenant may not
                    have the advantage of some equity in their
                                                                       occupy the property for 5 years or
                    property – a lot in some areas, not much
                                                                       more and landlords may be reluctant
                    in other places – and this can be used to
                                                                       to spend money when adaptations
                    pay for a “rightsizing” move or for making
                                                                       may have to be stripped out for the
Lord Best           their current home more comfortable.
                                                                       next tenant;
Chair of the APPG   But what about those older people who
                                                                    •	Very significantly, rents which may
                    are tenants, renting in either the social
                                                                       be affordable when a tenant is in work
                    or private rented sector (PRS)?
                                                                       can become too expensive when they
                                                                       are reliant on pension income. And for
                    In our latest Inquiry, we have turned
                                                                       those who qualify for Housing Benefit,
                    our attention to rental housing for older
                                                                       there may be an unbridgeable gap
                    people, both now and in the decades
                                                                       between the actual rent and the
                    to come. We wanted to find out how
                                                                       help received.
                    many homes for rent are likely to be
                    needed over the next 20 years or so,
                                                                    These factors led the Inquiry members
                    what they should be like and who
                                                                    to conclude that although some of the
                    might provide them.
                                                                    problems for private sector renters could
                                                                    be alleviated in ways our report describes,
                    Today only 22% of those over 65 are
                                                                    broadly the PRS is not best placed to
                    tenants (private or social). But this will
                                                                    meet the needs of renters who move into
                    change. Owner-occupation has been
                                                                    older age.
                    falling and there has been huge growth
                    in the private rented sector – a doubling
                                                                    The corresponding benefits of living in
                    of numbers since 2000. As this new
                                                                    the social rented sector – in the homes of
                    “Generation Rent” gets older and the
                                                                    housing associations and councils – are
                    chances of buying a home diminish,
                                                                    another story. Tenancies are likely to be
                    the number of retired people in the
                                                                    for life, numbers of “non-decent” homes
                    PRS seems set to change dramatically.
                                                                    are very much lower, adaptations are
                                                                    very significantly more likely, and there
                    Renting has the advantage of shifting the
                                                                    is the expectation that rents will be at
                    hassles of repairs and maintenance to
                                                                    levels that do not cause hardship and
                    someone else. There is much to be said
                                                                    distress. But at present there is little sign
                    for not having to worry about the upkeep
                                                                    of the provision of a much enlarged social
                    of the home particularly if family or friends
                                                                    housing sector geared to the needs of
                    are not close at hand to help. But renting
                                                                    older people. Although we saw excellent
                    brings its own problems. In particular our
                                                                    developments of more specialist Extra
                    Inquiry heard how the PRS operates in
                                                                    Care housing – often taking the place of
                    ways that can be problematic for the
                                                                    residential care homes – we did not detect
                    older tenant:
                                                                    any signs of a modern-day equivalent to
                                                                    the extensive building of sheltered housing
                                                                    in times past.

                                                                          Rental Housing For An Ageing Population 03
Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN
Chair’s Foreword                  The Inquiry considered the internal             Our Inquiry sheds light on the numbers
continued                         demands upon local authorities and              involved and spells out the scale of
                                  housing associations to provide                 the challenge ahead. It sets out our
                                  accessible downsizer accommodation for          recommendations for using the window
                                  their own tenants who are growing old in        of opportunity that now presents itself
                                  family properties: “general needs” housing      to head off an otherwise inevitable
                                  will become less suitable as those tenants      catastrophe for the pensioners
                                  grow older. Because there is little incentive   of tomorrow.
                                  for social housing tenants to downsize
                                  (pensioners in this sector are excluded         I conclude with sincere thanks to Peabody
                                  from the penalties of the “bedroom tax”),       for sponsoring the APPG Inquiry; to Anya
                                  internal demand may well be muted. But          Martin, from Peabody, for acting as the
                                  under-occupation will inevitably become         Inquiry’s Secretary and report author;
                                  more prevalent and not all the existing         to Greg Ineson the APPG Secretary;
                                  stock of social housing is suitable for         to the Inquiry Members (listed in Appendix
                                  adaptations. Nor is the existing sheltered      A) who have guided this initiative with
                                  housing in this sector – mostly built in the    wisdom and clarity; to the Social Market
                                  1960s and 1970s – attractive enough to          Foundation for providing analysis and
                                  encourage tenants to move out of                forecasts; to staff at Anchor Hanover,
                                  family homes.                                   Central Bedfordshire Council and
                                                                                  Jewish Care who all went to great efforts
                                  It seems the social housing sector will         to organise site visits for us; and the
                                  have plenty to do in catering for its own       residents of Limetree Court (Hackney)
                                  ageing population and we would certainly        and Selig Court (Barnet) who kindly
                                  press housing associations and councils         welcomed us into their homes.
                                  to plan ahead for growing demand. But it
                                  does not seem likely that social housing        We hope the efforts of all concerned
                                  landlords will be in a position to support      will be translated into a new impetus for
                                  everyone who will find themselves needing       meeting the needs of older people for
                                  to leave the PRS when they retire.              rented homes in the years to come.

                                  So what the Inquiry sees ahead is
                                  substantial demand for secure, decent,
                                  affordable rented homes for older people;
                                  but little prospect of housing associations
                                  and councils addressing this issue.

                                                                                  Lord Best
                                                                                  Chair of the APPG

04 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population
Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN
Conclusions and                                                  1.2. A ffordability in the private rented
                                                                       sector is the greatest challenge
Recommendations                                                  We note the forecasts that numbers of
                                                                 households in the private rented sector
1. A National Strategy                                           (PRS) headed by someone aged over
                                                                 64 will more than treble over the next
                                                                 25-30 years (from around 450,000 today
                                                                 to over 1,500,000 in 2046). We have also
                                                                 learnt that, assuming rents grow in line
               1.1. A strategic plan to head
                                                                 with earnings, around half of these older
                    off a crisis
                                                                 households in the PRS will no longer
               Our Inquiry has concluded that there will
                                                                 be able to afford the rent they could
               be very significant demand for affordable
                                                                 manage before they retired (although
               rented homes for older people over the
                                                                 we acknowledge the substantial regional
               next 30 years: we estimate a need of an
                                                                 differences in affordability).
               average of 38,000 homes a year for rent,
               of which at least 12,000 should be Extra
                                                                 We conclude, therefore, that something
               Care or sheltered. This totals over 1.1
                                                                 in the region of 630,000 PRS households
               million homes by the late 2040s.
                                                                 aged 65 and over will need lower-cost
                                                                 rented accommodation in less than 30
               We note that, since three quarters of
                                                                 years. This means building an average
               people over pension age currently live in
                                                                 about 21,000 suitable homes per annum.
               their own homes, immediate pressures
                                                                 These homes need not be specialist
               to build age-friendly accommodation to
                                                                 accommodation (such as Extra Care or
               rent are relatively modest. However, in
                                                                 supported housing) but they should be
               the years ahead we can see a massive
                                                                 designed appropriately for older people,
               increase in demand for rental housing
                                                                 incorporating the HAPPI design principles
               from the much larger population of older
                                                                 set out in our previous Inquiry reports.
               people who will then be in the rented
               sector but will need to move.
                                                                 The consequence of there being nowhere
                                                                 affordable for these households to go is
               We conclude that there is now a window
                                                                 bound to be homelessness for some and
               of opportunity which can be used to avoid
                                                                 a move into temporary accommodation,
               severe problems that otherwise lie ahead.
                                                                 at the state’s expense, for others.
               We strongly recommend that government
               brings together a strategic plan, a
                                                                 To head off the severe problem
               National Strategy, to increase provision of
                                                                 caused by a mismatch in the PRS
               purpose-built rented homes for our ageing
                                                                 between retirement incomes and rent
               population. Mostly this means new homes
                                                                 levels, we recommend the government’s
               that are let at genuinely affordable rents as
                                                                 National Strategy for meeting the need
               well as being accessible and manageable
                                                                 for affordable retirement accommodation
               for those in later life, or are flexible enough
                                                                 recognises the need for a shift from
               to be adapted as the need arises.
                                                                 renting in the PRS to renting in the
                                                                 subsidised/social housing sector.

               Demand stream                    Need by 2050                    Yearly target

               Need for rented specialist       360,000                         12,000
               older people’s housing
               for older renters with
               disabilities

               Social rented housing to         630,000                         21,000
               take low-income older
               renters out of the private
               sector

               Downsizer units for social       150,000                         5,000
               renters in family housing

               Total                            Over 1.1 million                38,000

                                                                      Rental Housing For An Ageing Population 05
Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN
Conclusions and                   1.3. D
                                        emands from within the                   Without sufficient accommodation within
Recommendations                        owner-occupied sector                      this sector that is tailor-made for the older
1. A National Strategy            A rented solution may also be appropriate       generation, problems of under occupation
                                  – and sometimes essential – for many            in “general needs” housing will grow. The
                                  of the 600,000 older owner-occupiers            estimate is for over 300,000 social sector
                                  who are living in unfit properties              homes with two or more extra bedrooms,
                                  (concentrated particularly in the Northern      25 years from now. Excluding those in
                                  regions) that are harmful to health – with      need of specialist accommodation, this
                                  greater risk of falls, poor insulation, and     suggests a programme of around 11,000
                                  other deficiencies.                             homes a year – although we would
                                                                                  not expect all these under-occupying
                                  In many cases, their properties do not          households to choose to move home.
                                  lend themselves to upgrading to meet
                                  the occupier’s needs; and even where            The Inquiry was clear that building
                                  the necessary home improvements                 specifically for older social housing
                                  are feasible, the owner-occupier may            tenants releases desperately needed
                                  be deterred by the cost or hassle of            family housing at social rents for
                                  organising them.                                younger households.

                                  To ease the health and social care needs        We recommend the National Strategy
                                  of this group, without the necessity of a       plans for at least 5,000 new purpose-
                                  move into residential care, some moves          built rented downsizer homes every year
                                  to the rented sector could be the answer.       specifically for older people currently living
                                  Providing a rented solution for these           in the social housing sector.
                                  owners over the next 20 years or so would
                                  add several thousand rented homes to            1.5. A  ll new homes to “lifetime
                                  the annual total required.                             homes” standards
                                                                                  As our HAPPI 3 Inquiry found, most
                                  We recommend that, to eliminate the             older people will prefer to stay in their
                                  horrors of so many older home owners            existing home rather than rightsize in
                                  suffering the hazards and hardships             older age. And since options are likely
                                  of living in homes not fit for human            to remain limited even for those who are
                                  habitation, their needs should be included      keen to move, we urge government to be
                                  in a National Strategy for rental housing       bolder in requiring space standards and
                                  for later life.                                 “lifetime homes” features that prevent new
                                                                                  properties from becoming inaccessible
                                  1.4. D emands from within the                  as the occupiers grow older. This means
                                        social housing sector                     determining that in due course all new
                                  We note the rising numbers of social            homes meet the Category 2 levels in
                                  housing tenants in “general needs”              Part M of the Building Regulations. This
                                  housing who will pass retirement age            approach prevents or postpones the need
                                  in the next quarter century. The figure         for a move into residential care and assists
                                  for households aged 65 and over in this         support in the home for those with long-
                                  sector is set to grow by around 1 million:      term conditions; it saves the NHS huge
                                  from about 1.4 million today to about           costs for hospital admissions, delayed
                                  2.4 million in around 30 years.                 discharges and readmissions.

                                  For some, there will be opportunities to        As a stepping stone to requiring these
                                  move into the social housing sector’s           higher levels of accessibility and
                                  own sheltered/purpose built housing.            adaptability, we recommend Local
                                  However, we see the likelihood of a             Planning Authorities introduce minimum
                                  significant shortfall in the available places   targets for Category 2 standards and
                                  within the current stock, since at present      for full wheelchair-user homes, as the
                                  few new retirement schemes are being            Greater London Authority has done.
                                  created. Moreover, we note that a lot of
                                  the sheltered housing from the 1960s and        We are also encouraged by the
                                  1970s is now in need of updating. And           widespread adoption of the HAPPI design
                                  we heard how some of this stock is being        principles by architects and developers
                                  replaced with homes for younger people.         and urge continued take-up of the
                                                                                  HAPPI standards.

06 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population
Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN
Conclusions and                                                We also recommend that housing
                                                               associations that create shared ownership
Recommendations                                                accommodation for older people, allow, at
                                                               the association’s discretion, “staircasing
2. Central and local                                          down”: equity release whereby the

   government action
                                                               occupier sells back some of their equity
                                                               to the association to finance care and
                                                               support costs.
               2.1.	Increased grant aid for social
                                                               2.3. Adequate benefit support
                    housing for older people
                                                               We have noted that for those on lower
               We join with the many voices calling for
                                                               incomes there will be problems of
               the next Spending Review to allocate
                                                               affordability with the switch from earnings
               more resources to social housing. And
                                                               to pensions. While additional social
               we see no alternative to the government
                                                               housing at lower rents would reduce the
               investing significant resources in social
                                                               need for state support with rents, moving
               renting to meet the needs of older people.
                                                               into social housing will not be an option
               The support for this age group needs to
                                                               for many, so savings in benefits cannot
               build up over the next 25/30 years to meet
                                                               be expected in the short term.
               the substantial and predictable demand
               our Inquiry has identified.
                                                               We strongly recommend that the
                                                               Department for Work and Pensions
               The cost of grant to councils and housing
                                                               (DWP) makes sure restrictions on benefits
               associations to achieve this goal will in
                                                               to support rental payments – caps,
               due course be recovered by reductions
                                                               ceilings, freezes – do not push more
               in the benefit bill which otherwise is
                                                               older people into poverty. Payment of
               predicted to rise to unsustainable levels,
                                                               Housing Benefit (or the housing element
               as well as other savings recouped by the
                                                               of Universal Credit) must not leave a
               public purse from older people living in
                                                               shortfall between the rent an older tenant
               age-appropriate housing.
                                                               must pay and the support they receive
                                                               to pay it. As an immediate step, we
               To take this programme forward, we
                                                               recommend government re-evaluates the
               recommend that the Ministry for Housing,
                                                               Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rent cap
               Communities and Local Government
                                                               to ensure it covers, once again, around
               (MHCLG) agrees annual targets with
                                                               a third of properties in the PRS, ending
               Homes England, the Greater London
                                                               the current LHA freeze and returning to
               Authority and local authorities themselves
                                                               uprating the benefits in line with increases
               for a significant number of new social
                                                               in market rents.
               housing units to be created specifically
               for older people.
                                                               2.4.	Extra help for housing with care
                                                                     and support
               2.2. S hared ownership for less
                                                               Our Inquiry has been concerned
                     affluent owners
                                                               principally with the provision of rented
               To assist older homeowners for whom a
                                                               homes for older people who do not need
               move to more suitable accommodation
                                                               to live in accommodation with 24-hour
               has become necessary, but for whom
                                                               care facilities. However, we strongly
               outright purchase of a retirement home
                                                               support the development of more Extra
               is not affordable, we recommend greater
                                                               Care and sheltered housing schemes.
               use of the shared ownership model.
                                                               As those in straightforward rented
               However, it is essential that service
                                                               accommodation become frailer, demand
               charges and rents are kept at truly
                                                               for housing with a higher level of support
               affordable levels: if so, shared ownership
                                                               is set to grow.
               can take the place of rental provision
               at a lower level of subsidy.
                                                               The estimated figure for rented housing for
                                                               those for whom specialist accommodation
               We note, for example, the model of 75%
                                                               will be essential is some 12,000 homes a
               ownership with nil rent on the remaining
                                                               year over the next 25-30 years.
               25% share. But affordability will vary from
               place to place and a flexible level of equity
               share will be needed to support many
               of those whose current property cannot
               generate sufficient funds to finance a
               down-sizing move.

                                                                     Rental Housing For An Ageing Population 07
Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN
Conclusions and                   Here we note the need not just for the         emphasise the need to assess future
Recommendations                   capital grants that keep production costs      requirements and places obligations on
2. Central and local             down but for a funding regime that gives       house builders and developer-landlords
   government action              security to providers that revenue costs       to include sufficient provision in all larger
                                  will be met. We were pleased to note that      developments. If new homes are future-
                                  government set aside plans for funding         proofed by achieving proper accessibility
                                  supported housing through a new system         (“Category 2”) standards (see 1.5), there
                                  that had caused many organisations to          will be less need for planners to require
                                  put their supported housing developments       housing designed exclusively for older
                                  on ice, or even to abandon them. These         people. But specialist accommodation
                                  schemes may only be a necessity for a          should always be part of the consideration
                                  minority of older people but they represent    and age-exclusive schemes with some
                                  a significant strand in overall provision of   communal space can meet social needs.
                                  affordable/rented homes.
                                                                                 New Garden Towns, urban extensions
                                  However, we express concern over               and other major projects all afford the
                                  the delayed Adult Social Care Green            opportunity to create a mix of ages in
                                  Paper and the uncertainty over future          housing for rent – often through Section
                                  funding of personal care, including within     106 planning agreements – as well as
                                  more specialist accommodation for              in housing for sale. As Sir Oliver Letwin
                                  older people.                                  has pointed out, achieving a variety of
                                                                                 provision in larger developments helpfully
                                  We recommend, as a matter of urgency,          speeds up the build-out rate. And
                                  that government brings forward its long-       including housing for the older generation
                                  awaited proposals for funding care costs       can mean adding people able to provide
                                  for older people, to enable all concerned      stability and local leadership – “community
                                  to plan for the future.                        anchors” that help a place to thrive.
                                                                                 Ambitious development targets must be
                                  2.5. M
                                        ore creative use of the                 coupled with proactive planning to make
                                       planning system                           communities that work for everyone.
                                  We conclude that Local Planning
                                  Authorities can play a leading role in         We also note the continuing arguments
                                  seeing sufficient homes are built for the      over classification for planning purposes
                                  growing numbers of older people in their       of projects that contain an element of
                                  area. We recommend all Local Plans             care. Those designated “C2” are excluded
                                  set out clearly the projected needs and        from the usual requirements to include
                                  demands, and require delivery of age-          affordable homes (and planning consent
                                  friendly housing accordingly.                  may be easier if they are on a Green
                                                                                 Belt site). The Inquiry’s concern is to see
                                  We recommend the Secretary of State for        enhanced provision of rented homes for
                                  MHCLG uses the powers created by the           older people, making us wary of policies
                                  Planning and Neighbourhoods Act 2017           that could diminish planning requirements
                                  to provide guidance to Local Planning          for these. But we find the current position
                                  Authorities on housing for older people.       confusing and recommend the position
                                  We recommend the Secretary of State            is clarified by MHCLG.

08 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population
Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN
Conclusions and                                            3.2. Transitional arrangements
                                                           In some areas, the pressures from older
Recommendations                                            people in need of rented housing are not
                                                           yet at the critical level we are estimating
3. Action by others                                        for the future. We have heard how some
                                                           retirement housing has taken time to
                                                           find tenants.

                                                           Bearing in mind the very substantial
             3.1 C
                  ouncils and housing
                                                           growth in future demand which our Inquiry
                 associations should give greater
                                                           has uncovered, we recommend that
                 priority to older people
                                                           social housing providers consider creating
             Irrespective of pressures from central
                                                           developments suitable for older people
             government, we strongly recommend
                                                           but which can meet the needs of younger
             social housing providers – councils and
                                                           households today. This may require more
             housing associations – turn their attention
                                                           flexible, intergenerational approaches to
             to building more homes tailor-made for
                                                           allocations. As demand from the older
             older people. By doing so, they will
                                                           population becomes increasingly acute,
             achieve “two for one”, helping younger
                                                           re-lets in such developments can go
             households through the release of larger
                                                           to them.
             homes. Both in investing in new
             developments and in regenerating/
                                                           3.3. Greater security in the PRS
             re-provisioning existing sheltered housing
                                                           We have identified extra problems for
             schemes, we see these landlords as
                                                           those “ageing in place” in the PRS:
             the main source of much needed
                                                           as well as difficulties with affordability
             accommodation for an ageing society.
                                                           and fitness, we have noted problems
                                                           with a lack of tenure security, that older
             But we are not convinced that the social
                                                           people must have for their peace of
             housing providers have recognised the
                                                           mind. We welcome the government’s
             scale of demand which will fall to them
                                                           commitment to introducing more secure
             to meet. Their current annual output of
                                                           tenancies by abolishing Section 21
             2-3,000 rented homes for older people
                                                           (of the Housing Act 1988) “no fault”
             is going to be woefully inadequate
                                                           evictions. Alongside the extra security
             in the face of demand for more than
                                                           the government’s new measure will bring,
             10 times these numbers in the years
                                                           we also recommend government takes
             ahead. Indeed, evidence provided to
                                                           forward proposals for introducing Housing
             the Inquiry suggests that the production
                                                           Courts (perhaps by giving additional
             of accommodation designed for older
                                                           powers to First Tier Tribunals) to resolve
             people has flatlined, when the demolition
                                                           PRS landlord-tenant disputes swiftly
             or switch of developments to younger
                                                           and cheaply.
             tenants is taken into account.
                                                           3.4. Securing adaptations in the PRS
             The Inquiry recommends that housing
                                                           We are pleased to see an increase in the
             associations and local authorities, when
                                                           availability of Disabled Facilities Grants
             reviewing and repurposing their existing
                                                           (DFG) but we note the very low take-up in
             stock, ensure the full replacement of
                                                           the PRS compared with the social rented
             homes for older people.
                                                           sector: although twice the proportion of
                                                           tenants are eligible, less than a quarter as
             As councils consider how best to use
                                                           many receive any help.
             their new freedoms to borrow for housing
             provision, we recommend all relevant
                                                           To make sure more DFGs reach tenants
             authorities give greater priority to older
                                                           in the PRS, we recommend all local
             people’s housing. Many existing social
                                                           authorities end the requirement that
             housing estates present the opportunity
                                                           tenants must be likely to remain in place
             for a small number of bungalows or
                                                           for at least 5 years, since this stipulation is
             purpose-built apartments on infill land
                                                           hard to evidence. And to prevent the need
             (such as redundant garage sites): those
                                                           for landlords to remove adaptations (like
             otherwise reluctant to rightsize can be
                                                           handrails and stair lifts) we recommend
             attracted to move when the opportunity
                                                           local authorities maintain a database of
             is on their doorstep. Local authorities
                                                           adapted properties in their area so those
             also have the opportunity to use Homes
                                                           with a disability/mobility problem can
             England grant for new developments on
                                                           locate a suitable home.
             publicly owned land, and to set up Local
             Housing Companies to intervene in their
             local housing markets.

                                                                 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population 09
Rental Housing For An Ageing Population - July 2019 Richard Best, APPG Inquiry Chair Anya Martin, APPG Inquiry Secretary - Housing LIN
Conclusions and                   3.5. N
                                        ew-style private renting                age groups. To bridge this gap, we see
Recommendations                        for the older generation                  the potential for incentives to encourage
3. Action by others               With the rise of the “Build to Rent”           investment for the new Build to Rent
                                  phenomenon, whereby institutional              developers of quality housing for
                                  investors finance long-term private renting,   older people.
                                  we recommend more developers explore
                                  the opportunities for good quality, open-      We recommend government explore
                                  market lettings for the older age group.       the opportunities – as with Venture Capital
                                                                                 Trusts – for using fiscal instruments to
                                  We note anxieties by some owners who           encourage investment in retirement
                                  fear moving to new retirement housing          housing for rent.
                                  for rent will mean disqualification from
                                  benefit entitlements; and extra service        3.6. Innovative new schemes
                                  charges and rents will absorb their assets     The Inquiry welcomes the fledgling “senior
                                  over time. But for others, a move into the     co-housing” movement whereby a group
                                  PRS can avoid the transaction costs – like     of older people work together – perhaps
                                  Stamp Duty – of purchasing a new home          in partnership with a housing association
                                  and free up capital for the next generation.   – to provide for their own housing (and
                                                                                 social) needs. We hope – as with the
                                  Although this may not represent a large        pioneering scheme by the Older Women’s
                                  market compared with the demand for            Co-Housing Group, as featured in HAPPI
                                  low-cost/subsidised rental homes, for          3 – these developments will incorporate
                                  some homeowners, selling their property        some homes to rent alongside those for
                                  and becoming the tenant of a reliable,         home ownership.
                                  long-term landlord will be a sensible and
                                  convenient alternative to continued owner-     The Inquiry also heard about emerging
                                  occupation. This tenure removes many           models of intergenerational housing
                                  of the hassles of maintaining a home.          and we look forward to seeing how
                                  Prerequisites for this niche market will be    these progress.
                                  good design and the assurance of both
                                  security and high-quality management.          Finally, we see opportunities in the rented
                                                                                 sector, as in the private house building
                                  For investors in Built to Rent, there is a     sector, to enhance later life by use of
                                  problem that appropriate accommodation         new technology. We look to our APPG to
                                  for the older generation is likely to          progress work on this front alongside the
                                  involve higher space standards and             Housing LIN’s TAPPI initiative (Technology
                                  the creation of some communal areas.           for our Ageing Population: Panel for
                                  These developments are, therefore, more        Innovation) and others.
                                  expensive than building for younger

10 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population
Chapter 1. Background                                        The panel met four times between
                                                             December 2018 and May 2019 to hear
1.1 Membership and purpose                                   evidence presented by witnesses from
                                                             a broad range of organisations in the
                                                             housing sector, including both public
                                                             and private bodies. They visited five
                                                             rental housing schemes for older people,
                                                             private and social, to learn about how
                                                             the developers tackled the barriers to
             In December 2018, the All-Party
                                                             delivering new homes. They also met
             Parliamentary Group on Housing and
                                                             residents of these schemes to learn about
             Care for Older People established an
                                                             their perspectives, and invited individuals
             Inquiry to consider our nation’s growing
                                                             and organisations from all backgrounds
             need for rental housing for an ageing
                                                             to submit evidence. A full list of members,
             population. Chaired by Lord Richard Best,
                                                             witnesses and evidence can be found in
             it brought together a group of cross-party
                                                             Appendix A.
             Parliamentarians and independent sector
             experts to serve as the panel.
                                                             This report is the fifth in the HAPPI series.
                                                             The first report in 2009 focused on
             The Inquiry aimed to investigate:
                                                             the design principles required for older
             •	How many homes for rent the nation
                                                             peoples’ housing. The second, in 2012,
                should build to meet the needs of its
                                                             set out a plan for implementing these
                ageing population.
                                                             principles. The third, in 2015, examined
             • Who should build those homes.
                                                             how retirement living could be made
             •	The barriers to the supply of affordable
                                                             into a positive choice for older people.
                and secure rental housing.
                                                             The fourth, in 2018, looked at how rural
             •	The design, care and provision
                                                             communities can increase the supply
                characteristics that these homes
                                                             and quality of age-friendly housing.
                should include.
                                                             As most older people are homeowners,
             The Inquiry sought to propose policies to
                                                             the focus thus far had been on properties
             achieve the needed quantity and quality
                                                             for purchase. This report supplements the
             of homes to rent. We perform forecasts
                                                             series by looking at rental housing, the
             for the whole of the UK, but as housing
                                                             barriers to its supply, and the significant
             policy is devolved we focus largely on
                                                             social and economic benefits it can bring.
             policy recommendations for the English
             government. Our other recommendations
             will also be valid in the devolved countries.

                                                                   Rental Housing For An Ageing Population 11
Chapter 1. Background                                                                                   65 has increased from 13 for men and
                                                                                                        16.9 for women in 1980, to 18.6 years
1.2 The ageing population                                                                               for men and 20.9 years for women today.
                                                                                                        The second factor is a decline in fertility,
                                                                                                        as people have fewer children and wait
                                                                                                        until later in life to have them. This means
                                                                                                        that the number of working-age individuals
                                                                                                        for every retiree (or the “dependency ratio”)
                                                                                                        is expected to fall from 3.3 for most of
1 C umbo, J. (2015) “UK              In the United Kingdom, there are currently
   pensions: tough choices as                                                                           the latter part of the last century to 2.9
                                      just over 12 million people aged over
   ‘old age support ratio’ shrinks”                                                                     by 20501. This will necessitate greater
                                      65 (18.2% of the population), and the
   in Financial Times, June 23                                                                          spending on pensions and healthcare,
                                      population is ageing rapidly. The latest
   2015.                                                                                                but from a proportionally smaller base
2 Kingston, A. Comas-Herrera,        projections by the Office for National
                                                                                                        of working taxpayers.
   A. and Jagger, C. (2018)           Statistics (ONS) suggest that in 50 years’
   “Forecasting the care needs        time, there are likely to be an additional
   of the older population in                                                                           Healthy life expectancy has also risen.
                                      8.6 million people aged 65 and over. This
   England over the next 20 years:                                                                      This gives us the opportunity to enjoy
                                      is a population roughly the size of London.
   estimates from the Population                                                                        a healthy, active retirement. However,
   Ageing and Care Simulation                                                                           many also suffer from long-term health
   (PACSim) modelling study” in       Chart 1 shows a population pyramid
                                                                                                        conditions, and our ability to prevent the
   The Lancet. Vol. 3, Issue 9.       based on the ONS’ 2016 data and their
                                                                                                        big killers does also mean that many older
   PE447-E455.                        forecast for 2066. It shows a substantial
                                                                                                        people live for an extended period in poor
3 Wenzel, L. et al. (2018)           “bulge” in those aged over 65, with
   Approaches to social care                                                                            health or disability. As a result, there has
                                      many hundreds of thousands more older
   funding: social care funding                                                                         been a substantial increase in complex
                                      people, but with far more consistent
   options. Working paper                                                                               needs such as dementia. At the same time
                                      numbers of younger people.
   number 2. The King’s Fund.                                                                           as people are able to live independently
                                                                                                        for longer, the need for care and support
                                      There are two main factors behind this
                                                                                                        for older people is also expected to grow
                                      growth in the number and proportion
                                                                                                        substantially2. This places great pressures
                                      of older people. Firstly, we have greatly
                                                                                                        on the NHS and the social care funding
                                      improved our ability to prevent and delay
                                                                                                        system, which health think tank The King’s
                                      the “big killers”: such as cancer and heart
                                                                                                        Fund argues already faces a spending
                                      disease. As a result, life expectancy at age
                                                                                                        shortfall and is in urgent need for reform3.

    Male                              Chart 1. 2016 Population pyramid                                  Chart 2. 2066 Population pyramid (forecast)
    Female

                                      +105                                                              +105
                                       100                                                               100
                                        95                                                                95
                                        90                                                                90
                                        85                                                                85
                                        80                                                                80
                                        75                                                                75
                                        70                                                                70
                                        65                                                                65
                                        60                                                                60
                                        55                                                                55
                                        50                                                                50
                                        45                                                                45
                                        40                                                                40
                                        35                                                                35
                                        30                                                                30
                                        25                                                                25
                                        20                                                                20
                                        15                                                                15
                                        10                                                                10
                                         5                                                                 5
Source: ONS                              0                                                                 0
                                           -600000

                                                     -400000

                                                               -200000

                                                                         0

                                                                             200000

                                                                                      400000

                                                                                               600000

                                                                                                               -600000

                                                                                                                         -400000

                                                                                                                                   -200000

                                                                                                                                             0

                                                                                                                                                 200000

                                                                                                                                                          400000

                                                                                                                                                                   600000

12 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population
Chapter 1. Background                                                                There are a range of estimates of
                                                                                     the number of specialist homes for
1.3 Housing for older people                                                         elderly people in the UK. The Elderly
                                                                                     Accommodation Counsel (EAC) suggest
                                                                                     that there are 726,0005, while the
                                                                                     Associated Retirement Community
                                                                                     Operators suggest just over 500,0006.
                                                                                     This compares to a population of over 65s
                                                                                     of approximately 8 million households.
4 H ousing that is not specifically   The housing that older people live in can
  designed for older or disabled                                                     Whether mainstream or specialist housing
                                       be broadly divided into two categories:
  people. Note that some                                                             is a more appropriate choice depends on
                                       mainstream housing4 and specialist
  “mainstream” housing may be                                                        the level of need of the resident, but Savills
                                       housing for older people. The vast
  accessible and appropriate to                                                      suggests an appropriate international
  older people if it meets certain     majority of older people currently live in
                                                                                     benchmark for the proportion of older
  design standards, such as the        mainstream housing and most in housing
                                                                                     people who should be in specialist
  HAPPI principles.                    that they own (see Chart 2). Around 16%
5 Savills (2018) Spotlight on                                                       housing is about 15%7. This means that
                                       rent social housing, most of whom are
  Retirement Living.                                                                 comparatively few households (6-9%,
                                       in “general needs” homes: mainstream,
6 ARCO (2017) Written Evidence                                                      depending on which stock figure you use)
                                       low-cost rented units originally developed
  [submitted to CLG Committee]                                                       headed by an older person in the UK live
7 Savills (2018) Spotlight on         for families. The remainder – a very small
                                                                                     in specialist homes. 0.7% of over-65s
  Retirement Living.                   proportion compared to younger age
                                                                                     live in some form of “housing with care”,
8 Beach, B. (2018) Stronger           groups – rent privately.
  Foundations: International
                                                                                     compared to 5-6% in Australia, New
  Lessons for the Housing-with-                                                      Zealand, and the USA. These countries
  Care Sector in the UK. Report                                                      have much more advanced markets for
  for ARCO and Legal & General.                                                      retirement properties8.

Chart 2. Tenure by age group, 2016-17                    Owner-occupation               Social housing               Private renting

          100.0

           90.0

           80.0

            70.0

           60.0

           50.0

           40.0

           30.0

           20.0

            10.0

             0.0
                   16-24               25-34         35-44          45-54           55-64           65-74         75 or over

Source: MHCLG

                                                                                            Rental Housing For An Ageing Population 13
Chapter 1. Background Age UK defines three broad categories                      Associated Retirement Community
1.3 H
     ousing for older of older peoples’ housing (or “retirement                 Operators (ARCO) have also prepared
    people             housing”): “age-exclusive” housing, where                 a guide to explain the different types of
                                   residents have to be over a certain age       housing for older people (see graphic 1).
                                   but receive little or no support, “housing-
                                   with-support” where residents receive         Three quarters of older peoples’ homes
                                   support services (such as a warden on         in the UK are operated by social landlords
                                   call) but no care, and “housing-with-care”    (most of which are councils or housing
9 A
   ge UK (2018) Factsheet 64:     where staff provide care services such        associations). Most of these were built
  Specialist housing for older     as help with daily activities9. In the UK,    during the 1970s and 1980s. Just under
  people.                          housing-with-support for older people         a quarter of the retirement homes in the
10 S avills (2018) Spotlight on   is often referred to as sheltered housing,    UK are privately owned by the resident,
    Retirement Living.             and housing-with-care is often referred       and the remaining small proportion are
                                   to as Extra Care. However, developers         split between shared ownership and other
                                   and landlords will often use their            tenures (including a very small number
                                   own nomenclature.                             of private rented homes)10.

                                   Quayside, The Guinness Partnership

                                   Quayside is an Extra Care housing             Guinness provides both the onsite care
                                   development near the River Dart               and dedicated 24 hours a day “Peace of
                                   in Totnes, Devon, which opened in             Mind” service to customers so assurance
                                   November 2017. It offers a unique             and support is always available.
                                   collection of retirement apartments for
                                   people aged over 55, with half for sale       Quayside was developed in partnership
                                   through shared ownership, and half            with Homes England, Devon County
                                   for affordable rent.                          Council and South Hams District Council.
                                                                                 Grant funding from these partners
                                   Built and decorated using dementia-           contributed to the build costs as part
                                   friendly design, with each floor level        of the Care & Support Fund Phase 2,
                                   colour coded to aid wayfinding, corridors     which was launched by the Government
                                   are intended to be open ended providing       in 2015. The fund welcomed bids
                                   a visual link to the outside. Additional      aimed at providing innovative housing
                                   facilities include a bistro which is open     opportunities for older people, including
                                   to the public, a hairdressing salon, spa      those living with dementia, in line with
                                   bathroom, meeting and activity rooms          the then-Prime Minister’s “Challenge
                                   and landscaped shared gardens to              on Dementia”.
                                   create vibrant outside spaces.

14 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population
Chapter 1. Background Supply                                                        Housing associations have focussed their
1.3 H
     ousing for older Much like mainstream housing supply,                         supply on family housing rather than older
    people             the last three decades have seen much                        peoples’ housing, in contrast to the early
                                   lower levels of supply of new homes              1980s when around 15,000 social rented
                                   for older people. At the peak in the late        units a year were developed (in addition
                                   1980s almost 30,000 retirement units             to several thousand private sale units).
                                   were developed in one year. While new            There has been a revival of shared
                                   retirement homes for private sale have           ownership models in the last five years,
11 Ibid.                           substantially increased in recent years          although the number of units developed
12 K
    night Frank (2018)            (more than doubling since 2010), currently       remains in the hundreds13.
   Retirement living comes         less than 10,000 new units per year are
   of age.                         being built, of which over half are for          National building targets do not include a
13 Ibid. (Savills visualisation   private sale11. Supply has become more           minimum proportion or number of units
   of EAC data)                    dependent on the private sector, whereas         specifically for older people. Local Plans
                                   historically the state developed much of it.     are however required to be compliant with
                                   The largest private developer, McCarthy          the National Planning Policy Framework,
                                   & Stone, has also announced it intends to        which specifies that needs for different
                                   reduce its output. That said, the number         groups in the community must be
                                   of retirement living units (of all tenures) is   assessed and reflected in planning
                                   expected to increase by almost 30% from          policies. We are currently waiting for
                                   2017-2022: massively faster than other           MHCLG guidance on how local planning
                                   housing types12.                                 authorities should plan to meet the needs
                                                                                    of older and disabled people. Research
                                                                                    conducted for the Royal Town and
                                                                                    Planning Institute in 2017 suggested that
                                                                                    42% of local authorities provide housing
                                                                                    specifically for older people, and older
                                                                                    people were the top priority in terms
                                                                                    of meeting special needs.

Graphic 1. ARCO guide to living options for older people

Source: https://www.arcouk.org/what-retirement-community

                                                                                         Rental Housing For An Ageing Population 15
Chapter 1. Background Accessibility                                              “wheelchair user” (Category 3) dwellings
1.3 H
     ousing for older Across the general population, around                     are optional; local planning authorities may
    people             9% of all households had one or more                      require them as part of planning consent.
                                   person with a long-term limiting disability   In London, the Greater London Authority’s
                                   that required adaptions to their home,        London Plan specifies that 90% of homes
                                   according to the 2014/15 English Housing      must be accessible and adaptable while
                                   Survey, which included a special report       the remaining 10% must be wheelchair
                                   on accessibility.14                           user dwellings.
14 T
    his may be an underestimate
   as it was only asked of those   National government has not set a target      Savills analysis of the most recent census
   who reported they had a         of what proportion or number of homes         suggests that less than 50% of those
   disability.                     should be suitable for disabled people.       aged over 64 have good health without
15 Savills (2015) Spotlight:      Part M of the Building Regulations specify    limitations in their daily activities; this
   Housing an Ageing               that all homes should be “visitable”          drops to just over 10% of those over 85.15
   Population.
16 E nglish Housing Survey
                                   (Category 1), but “accessible and             Despite this, the English Housing
    2014-15 (latest available      adaptable” (Category 2) and                   Survey shows that just 7% of homes in
    survey featuring a report on                                                 England had all four accessibility features
    accessibility).                                                              that make it visitable for those with
                                                                                 mobility impairments: level access,
                                                                                 a flush threshold, sufficiently wide doors
                                                                                 and circulation space, and a toilet
                                                                                 at entrance level.16

                                   McCarthy & Stone

                                   Despite traditionally providing only owner-   McCarthy & Stone believe there is a gap
                                   occupied retirement housing, last year, in    in the market for modern, purpose-built,
                                   line with their new strategy, McCarthy &      rental accommodation for older people.
                                   Stone began to incorporate rented and         They predict the levels of investment in
                                   shared ownership properties within their      this model across the private sector will
                                   development pipeline to adapt to the          be similar to that of the rise in purpose-
                                   changing needs of those in later life.        built student accommodation over the
                                                                                 past few years. Investors are already
                                   Initially, rental properties were available   seeing promising returns due to the
                                   at 11 different schemes that promote          reliability of older renters and the high
                                   independent living, as well as including      demand for these properties.
                                   flexible care packages. The organisation
                                   found that older renters were                 Due to their foray into the rental market
                                   particularly keen to live in its Extra Care   being positively received by customers,
                                   developments (called Retirement Living        McCarthy & Stone envisage that 20%
                                   Plus) which cater for those with greater      of their portfolio will be for rental and
                                   support needs and have care facilities on     shared ownership in the future.
                                   site, with 24-hour access to the service.

16 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population
Chapter 1. Background There has been a trend towards newer                           The benefits of housing for
1.3 H
     ousing for older homes meeting visitability standards:                         older people
    people             34% of homes built post-1990 meet all                         A huge array of evidence exists suggesting
                                      four. Level access is five times more likely   that appropriate housing can lead to
                                      in homes built from 2001 onwards (68%)         better health outcomes and thereby
                                      compared with those built before 2001          reduce costs to the health and social
                                      (13%). However, most homes that older          care systems, which has been covered at
                                      people will live in in the coming decades      length in other reports.19 Savills estimate
17 E
    vidence submission to            are built already, leading to a substantial    for instance that the cost saving to the
   the APPG Inquiry, Design           risk of older people living in unsuitable      state of a specialist retirement property,
   Museum.                            housing. Many existing homes are not           capitalised in perpetuity, is £24,700 to
18 H
    abinteg (2019) A forecast        easily adaptable: for instance, according      £41,100.20 This is largely through reducing
   for accessible homes. Insight      to the Design Museum, 28% of homes             falls and permitting hospital patients to
   report.                            cannot be installed with handrails or          be discharged into appropriate housing
19 S
    ee Housing LIN’s report for
   Keepmoat Regeneration/
                                      wet rooms.17                                   sooner. It follows that even if a home is not
   ENGIE: Housing Lin (2017)                                                         specifically for older people, appropriate
   Demonstrating the Health           The English Housing Survey also found          age-friendly mainstream housing can
   and Social Cost-Benefits of        that one in ten households requiring           also improve health outcomes. However,
   Lifestyle Housing for Older        adaptations do not have their required         Savills also highlight that retirement
   People.                            adaptions because their landlord would         housing providers typically compensate
20 N ote that “savings” to
                                      not pay for them, whilst 5% said the           for high land values by developing
    the NHS may be better
    interpreted as an improved
                                      landlord would not allow them. Of those        premium homes, and more disadvantaged
    re-allocation of resources        that have adaptations, the most common         households have their needs met by
    rather than actual savings,       were within the home and relatively            sheltered housing, there is little choice
    as the money is still “spent”     simple: grab rails (40%), bath or shower       for middle income households.21
    for the hospital bed, but it is   seat and other bath aids (30%), specialist
    allocated to someone else.        toilet seat (25%) and a shower to replace    An additional benefit of older peoples’
21 Savills (2018) Spotlight on
                                      the bath (19%).                              housing is loneliness prevention. Older
   Retirement Living.
22 Campaign to End Loneliness                                                     people are especially vulnerable to
    (n.d.) “The facts on              A recent report by Habinteg, a provider      loneliness, and the Campaign to End
    loneliness”. Web page.            of accessible housing, showed that           Loneliness has highlighted its particularly
                                      less than half of all Local Plans (draft or  pernicious effects on health and wellbeing;
                                      adopted) set a specific requirement for a    it is even associated with early death.22
                                      proportion of new homes to meet any form Older peoples’ schemes often involve
                                      of accessibility standards, and less than    community activities or facilities, and living
                                      a third set requirements for homes to be     in close proximity to other retirees means
                                      constructed to Category 2 or 3 standards. older people may have more opportunities
                                      Of those that do set requirements, almost    to meet and socialise with others.
                                      a third specify older, outdated standards.18

                                      “Increased life expectancy should be
                                       celebrated. Whilst physical decline is
                                       inevitable as we age, this does not mean
                                       that wellbeing should decline amongst
                                       older people.”
                                        esign Museum, evidence submitted to the
                                       D
                                       APPG Inquiry.

                                                                                           Rental Housing For An Ageing Population 17
Chapter 2. The Emerging Crisis                                                    The Inquiry commissioned the Social
                                                                                  Market Foundation (SMF) to forecast
2.1 O
     lder people and the private                                                 future growth in the private rented sector.
                                                                                  The forecasts are based on the current
    rented sector                                                                 tenure distribution of age groups in the
                                                                                  UK, trends in housing affordability
                                                                                  (forecasted by the Office for Budget
                                                                                  Responsibility; OBR), and ONS projections
                                                                                  of household and population growth.24
23 English Housing Survey,       At present, just 5.6% of people aged
    2017-18.                                                                      Considering these factors, the SMF
                                  over 64 live in the private rented sector
24 S
    ee Appendix B for further                                                    estimated that the proportion of
                                  (PRS).23 This represents about 380,000
   information.                                                                   households aged over 64 who are
                                  people, up from 250,000 in the 2011
25 J RF (2018) Housing costs                                                     privately renting will increase from around
    and poverty: private rents    census. However, as Chart 2 shows,
                                                                                  5% to 12% by 2046, more than doubling.
    compared to local earnings.   9.3% of 55-64-year-olds (363,000
                                                                                  This is largely due to an expected fall in
26 E nglish Housing Survey,      people) and 15.8% of 45-54-year-olds
    Headline Report 2017-18.                                                      the proportion of older households who
                                  (719,000 people) rent privately. For these
                                                                                  own their property, from 78% to 69%.
                                  households, many will be expecting to
                                                                                  Most of the decline in this group is
                                  retire in their mid-to-late 60s and are
                                                                                  expected to translate into increases
                                  therefore unlikely to have time to take out
                                                                                  in the private rented sector.
                                  and pay off a mortgage independently,
                                  if they have not done so already. While
                                                                                  Affordability in the PRS
                                  many such individuals will either inherit
                                                                                  It is no small matter that more retired
                                  property or eventually get allocated
                                                                                  people may end up renting privately.
                                  to social housing, it is quite likely that
                                                                                  Private renting is the most expensive
                                  many will end up renting privately into
                                                                                  tenure25, and private renters spend more
                                  their retirement.
                                                                                  as a proportion of their income on rent
                                                                                  than those in any other tenure (despite
                                                                                  the lower incomes of those in social
                                                                                  housing).26 Across all age groups, around
                                                                                  33% of private renters’ income is spent
                                                                                  on rent after Housing Benefit is taken
                                                                                  into account.

Chart 3                           90%
Forecasted housing tenure
for households with a              80%
household reference
person aged over 64                70%

                                   60%
   Owner-occupation
   Social housing                  50%
   Private renting
                                   40%

                                   30%

                                   20%

                                   10%

                                    0%
Source: SMF analysis                         2016     2021       2026      2031       2036      2041       2046      2051

18 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population
Chapter 2.                          Nationally, the median monthly rent               •	Rents growing in line with headline
The Emerging Crisis                 for a property is £675, but this masks               inflation (2% per annum)
2.1 Older people and the           substantial regional differences. In the          •	Rents growing in line with household
    private rented sector           North East, where rents are lowest,                  incomes/earnings (3% per annum)
                                    the median monthly rent is £495. In               •	Rents growing faster than earnings and
                                    Inner London, however, the median                    overall inflation (4% per annum)
                                    is £1,600.27 In some regions with very
                                    low housing demand, private rents are             The Affordable Housing Commission
27 V
    aluation Office Agency         similar to or lower than social rents and         (AHC) has been working on definitions of
   (2018) Private Rental Market     can be covered by Housing Benefit for             housing affordability. The AHC considers
   Summary Statistics – April       households with low incomes.                      that problems may well emerge where
   2017 to March 2018.                                                                more than a third of household income
28 D
    WP (2019) Data tables:         Private renting can pose serious                  is spent on the rent, and housing costs
   Pensioners’ income series        affordability challenges for working-             simply become unaffordable if they
   1994/95-2017/18. Table 2.1.
29 Affordable Housing
                                    age households, but the risks are even            exceed 40%.29 Table 1 below considers
   Commission (2019) Defining       greater for older people. On average,             the proportion of older people renting
   and measuring housing            pensioner households have a net income            privately who will be devoting more than
   affordability – an alternative   before housing costs of £344 per week             33% of income to their rent, while Table 2
   approach.                        (median).28 This means that the median            considers the more extreme case of those
                                    private rented property would cost                devoting over 40% to their rent.
                                    almost 46% of the median pensioner’s
                                    income nationally: considerably above the         As Tables 1 shows, even in the optimistic
                                    commonly-used affordability benchmarks            scenario, almost half of over 64s are
                                    of 30-40%. For low-income pensioners,             expected to be paying over a third of their
                                    private renting would be simply                   net incomes on private rents by 2048. In
                                    unaffordable in areas with higher rents.          the pessimistic scenario this could be as
                                                                                      high as 82.5%.
                                    The SMF also estimated the future
                                    affordability of private rents for the Inquiry.
                                    Drawing on data from the 2017/18 Living
                                    Costs and Food Survey, they estimated
                                    rents as a proportion of household income
                                    across private renters in different age
                                    groups. They then considered what would
                                    happen to these groups under different
                                    scenarios for rent price growth:

Table 1                                             Optimistic scenario         Central scenario          Pessimistic scenario
Proportion of older private        2017/18         54.1%                       54.1%                                    54.1%
 renting households with
                                    2027/28         50.8%                       55.1%                                    57.7%
 rents in excess of 33% of
 net incomes (equivalised)          2037/38         54.9%                       64.7%                                    77.3%
                                    2047/48         48.5%                       66.9%                                    82.5%

Table 2                                             Optimistic scenario         Central scenario          Pessimistic scenario
Proportion of older private         2017/18         44.2%                       44.2%                                   44.2%
renting households with             2027/28         39.5%                       44.1%                                    48.1%
rents in excess of 40% of
net incomes (equivalised)           2037/38         43.9%                       52.3%                                   62.2%
                                    2047/48         36.7%                       50.1%                                    70.2%
Source: SMF analysis

                                                                                           Rental Housing For An Ageing Population 19
Chapter 2.                             Under the central scenario, for recently       Looking into the more distant future, the
The Emerging Crisis                    retired households (aged 65-74), the           effects of auto-enrolment into occupation
2.1 Older people and the              proportion with unaffordable rents is set      pension schemes may well reduce the
    private rented sector              to increase over the next two decades,         numbers for whom private rents will be
                                       reflecting the higher proportion of low        unaffordable, but the surge in demand as
                                       income households in the private rented        Generation Rent reaches retirement age
                                       sector compared with prior generations         will still be highly significant.
                                       (where such households were more
30 IFS (2019) “Doubling of the        likely to be social renters). However,         Housing Benefit and the PRS
    housing benefit bill is sign of    this proportion is expected to then fall       The high cost of private renting has
    something deeply wrong”.           back slightly in 30 years’ time, reflecting    implications not only for individuals but for
    Paul Johnson. Article 04 Mar       a cohort of relatively high-income             government. Pensioners whose income
    2019.                              households in the private rented sector:       does not cover the cost of their rent
31 H
    ealey, J. (2015) High             households at income levels that would         will require more support in the form of
   aspirations, sound
   foundations: a discussion
                                       have permitted homeownership in                Housing Benefit (HB). The growth of the
   report on the centre-ground         the past.                                      PRS for younger households has already
   case for building 100,000 new                                                      directly resulted in a booming of HB costs:
   public homes. Smith Institute.      The 33% and 40% affordability thresholds       spending on this benefit has doubled
32 DWP (2018) Housing Benefit         used in Tables 1 and 2 are not perfect         since the early 2000s to £22 billion a year,
   caseload statistics: data to        measures for affordability problems:           largely driven by the growth of private
   May 2018.
                                       the amount of disposable income left           rented housing as well as more expensive
33 R
    ugg, J. and Rhodes,
   D. (2018) The Evolving
                                       after rent will naturally vary substantially   forms of social housing.30 It is expected to
   Private Rented Sector: Its          according to income level and other            reach £45bn in real terms by 2050-5131,
   Contribution and Potential.         spending needs. However, Table 3               although it is difficult to identify how much
   University of York: Centre for      shows that older private renters will          of this is specifically due to the PRS.
   Housing Policy.                     disproportionately be on lower incomes
34 Resolution Foundation (2019)       (defined as those with less than 70% of        Over a quarter of Housing Benefit
    “To build, or not to build: that
                                       the median income for their age group),        claimants are aged over 65.32 45% of
    is the question”. Stephen
    Clarke. 12 April 2019.             especially those aged over 74. High            older private renters claim HB, a very
                                       income is defined as those with incomes        high proportion compared to other age
                                       1.3 times the median, and middle income        groups.33 As the retired population is
                                       is those in between. This means we can         expected to grow substantially this poses
                                       safely expect affordability problems for       significant risks for the welfare system.
                                       a substantial proportion of older
                                       private renters.                               Resolution Foundation (RF) has estimated
                                                                                      that without a substantial increase in
                                       Clearly those for whom housing costs           social rented supply, the Housing Benefit
                                       mean sliding into poverty in older age will    bill could increase by 150% by 2060.34
                                       need support. It is hard to see how they       Even with a significant increase to an
                                       can sustain their tenancy, quite apart         additional 34,000 social rent homes
                                       from their accommodation proving costly        per year, the HB bill is still anticipated to
                                       to heat and care for. What is required         increase by 70%. They emphasise that in
                                       for so many of those who fall into this        the long-run the decision to increase grant
                                       affordability trap, is the opportunity to      for social housing pays for itself in terms
                                       downsize to a place where rents are            of reduced welfare spending.
                                       genuinely affordable.

Table 3
Income distribution of older private renting households (by age of household reference person)

                                                     Low income                  Middle income                      High income
                                             65-74           75+             65-74          75+             65-74            75+
2017/18 (actual)                             42.9%         40.7%             35.7%        40.7%             21.4%          18.5%
2027/28                                      48.1%         42.9%             24.7%        35.7%             27.3%          21.4%
2037/38                                      58.5%         48.1%             27.2%        24.7%             14.3%          27.3%
2047/48                                      39.8%         58.5%             39.4%        27.2%             20.8%          14.3%

Source: SMF analysis

20 Rental Housing For An Ageing Population
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