Retail Market Study Downtown Jackson, Michigan - Jackson Anchor Initiative
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Retail Market Study Downtown Jackson, Michigan
TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 3 Background .......................................................................................................................... 4 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 5 Trade Area ........................................................................................................................... 7 Demographic Characteristics ............................................................................................... 9 Tapestry Lifestyles ............................................................................................................... 10 Employment Base ................................................................................................................ 13 TRADE AREA CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................................... 16 Location ................................................................................................................................ 16 Access .................................................................................................................................. 17 Other Shopping Areas .......................................................................................................... 17 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .................................................................................................... 19 2018 & 2023 Supportable Retail Table ................................................................................. 20 Retail Category Definitions ................................................................................................... 21 Shopping Center Definitions ................................................................................................. 24 Rationale ............................................................................................................................... 25 Limits of Study ....................................................................................................................... 25 APPENDIX ............................................................................................................................ 27 Exhibit A: Primary Trade Area Business Summary .............................................................. 27 Exhibit B: Primary Trade Area Community Profile ................................................................ 29 Exhibit C: Primary Trade Area Housing Profile .................................................................... 35 Exhibit D: Primary Trade Area Dominant Tapestry Map and Descriptions ........................... 37
INTRODUCTION
W. Glick Hwy.
Michigan Avenue
S. Cooper Street
1st Street
W. Franklin Street.
Figure 1: Aerial photo of downtown Jackson. Downtown Jackson’s primary trade area can presently support an additional
108,400 sf of retail and restaurant development.
Executive Summary
This study finds that the downtown Jackson primary trade area can presently support up to 108,400
additional square feet (sf) of retail and restaurant development, generating almost $31.9 million in
new sales. By 2023, income growth and continued economic development in the primary trade area
could increase the estimated retail sales to just shy of $33.5 million. The demand could partially be
absorbed by nearby businesses and/or with the opening of 35 to 50 new restaurants and stores.
Additional development in downtown Jackson can provide needed goods and services for the
existing surrounding consumer base of nearby residents, students, workers and visitors.
Furthermore, bolstering the critical mass of retailers and restaurants downtown can increase the
share of sales captured in the study area and improve the quality of life for the surrounding
community. The leading categories of supportable retail growth are restaurants, grocery stores,
apparel and shoe stores, department store merchandise, pharmacy and sporting goods.
This study further finds that the downtown Jackson primary trade area has a population of
140,400 persons, increasing under current trends to 141,400 persons by 2023. Median household
income in the primary trade area is $48,400, which is lower than state and national averages, and
is expected to grow to $52,900 by 2023. Housing favors owner-occupied units, which comprise
61.8 percent of all housing, compared to 26.2 percent renter-occupied households; the vacancy
rate is 12.0 percent. The primary trade area has a labor base of 70,800 employees.
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Table 1: 2018 Additional Supportable Retail
Est. 2018 Est. 2018 Number
Retail Category
Supportable SF Retail Sales of Stores
Retail
Apparel Stores 9,300 sf $2,557,500 4-5
Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 2,100 sf $640,500 1
Book & Music Stores 1,400 sf $315,000 1
Department Store Merchandise 11,600 sf $3,422,000 4-5
Florists 1,100 sf $236,500 1
Furniture Stores 2,100 sf $535,500 1
Grocery Stores 19,500 sf $6,337,500 1-2
Hardware Stores 1,700 sf $408,000 1
Home Furnishings Stores 3,400 sf $884,000 1-2
Jewelry Stores 1,900 sf $627,000 1
Lawn & Garden Supply Stores 800 sf $176,000 1
Miscellaneous Store Retailers 10,100 sf $2,575,500 4–6
Office Supplies & Gift Stores 1,400 sf $371,000 1
Pharmacy 6,000 sf $1,830,000 1-2
Shoe Stores 2,000 sf $560,000 1-2
Specialty Food Stores 3,100 sf $914,500 1-2
Sporting Goods & Hobby Stores 3,700 sf $925,000 1-2
Retailer Totals 81,200 sf $23,315,500 26-36
Restaurants
Bars, Breweries & Pubs 5,200 sf $1,508,000 1-2
Full-Service Restaurants 7,900 sf $2,528,000 2-3
Limited-Service Restaurants 9,000 sf $2,970,000 3-4
Specialty Food Stores 5,100 sf $1,555,500 3-5
Restaurant Totals 27,200 sf $8,561,500 9-14
Retail & Restaurant Totals 108,400 sf $31,877,000 35-50
Table 1: The leading supportable retail categories are grocery stores, department store merchandise, and miscellaneous
store retailers.
Background
Gibbs Planning Group, Inc. (GPG) has been retained by the Jackson Anchor Initiative to conduct
a retail feasibility analysis as the first step in a comprehensive investigation of how to stimulate
retail growth in downtown Jackson.
GPG addressed the following issues in this study:
• What is the existing and planned retail market in the study and trade area?
• What is the primary trade area for downtown Jackson, Michigan?
• What are the population, demographic and lifestyle characteristics in the primary trade
area, currently and projected for 2023?
• What is the current and projected growth for retail expenditures in the primary trade area,
now and for the next five years?
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• How much additional retail square footage is supportable in the downtown Jackson’s
primary trade area, Michigan study area, and what retail uses should be encouraged?
What sales volumes can development achieve in or near the study area?
Figure 2: Downtown Jackson is located approximately 35 miles south of Lansing and 35 miles west of Ann Arbor.
Methodology
To address the above issues, GPG defined a trade area that would serve the retail in the study
area based on geographic and topographic considerations, traffic access/flow in the area, relative
retail strengths and weaknesses of the competition, concentrations of daytime employment and
the retail gravitation in the market, as well as our experience defining trade areas for similar
markets. Population, consumer expenditure and demographic characteristics of trade area
residents were collected by census tracts from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics and Esri (Environmental Systems Research Institute).
Finally, based on the projected consumer expenditure capture (demand) in the primary trade area
of the gross consumer expenditure by retail category, less the current existing retail sales (supply)
by retail category, GPG projects the potential net consumer expenditure (gap) available to support
existing and new development. The projected net consumer expenditure capture is based on
household expenditure and demographic characteristics of the primary trade area, existing and
planned retail competition, traffic and retail gravitational patterns and GPG’s qualitative
assessment of downtown Jackson. Net potential captured consumer expenditure (gap) is equated
to potential retail development square footage, with the help of retail sales per square foot data
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provided by Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers (Urban Land Institute and International
Council of Shopping Centers), qualitatively adjusted to fit the urbanism and demographics of the
study area.
Figure 3: Numerous retail stores and restaurants have recently opened in downtown Jackson, which has helped spur the
area’s revitalization.
For the purposes of this study, GPG has assumed the following:
• Other major community retail centers may be planned or proposed, but only the existing
retail is considered for this study. The quality of the existing retail trade in the study area
is projected to remain constant. Gains in future average retail sales per sf reflect higher
sales per sf in newly developed retail and selected increases in sales per sf by individual
retail categories.
• No major regional retail centers will be developed within the trade area of this analysis
through 2023 for the purposes of this study.
• The region’s economy will continue at normal or above normal ranges of employment,
inflation, retail demand and growth.
• The study area is properly zoned to support infill and redevelopment projects with current
and innovative standards, and the existing infrastructure (water, sewer, arterial roadways,
etc.) can support additional commercial development.
• Annual population growth for the primary trade area is estimated to be 0.14 percent
throughout the five-year period of this study.
• Employment distribution is projected to remain constant, without a spike or decline in
employment by NAICS categories.
• The projected lease and vacancy rate model is based on our proprietary econometric
model of the relationship between changes in employment and changes in vacancy and
lease rates. Data was gathered from the U.S. Census Bureau, Esri, CBRE and local
brokerage services.
• Any new construction in the study area will be planned, designed, built and managed to
the best practices of the American Institute of Architects, American Planning Association,
American Society of Landscape Architects, Congress for New Urbanism, International
Council of Shopping Centers and The Urban Land Institute.
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• Parking for new development projects or businesses will meet or exceed the industry
standards.
• Visibility of any new retail is also assumed very good, with signage as required to assure
easy visibility of the retailers.
• Infill or redevelopment projects in the study area will open with sustainable amounts of
retail and anchor tenants, at planned intervals and per industry standards.
Trade Area
Figure 4 Downtown Jackson’s primary trade area encompasses 482 square miles with convenient access to I-94 and US
Highway 127.
Based on GPG’s site evaluation, the existing retail hubs, population clusters, highway access,
and the retail gravitation in the market, as well as our experience defining trade areas for similar
communities throughout the United States, it was determined that consumers in the primary trade
area generate demand to support a variety of retailers. This potential will continue to increase
over the next five years, sustained by on-site residential development and average annual
household income growth of 2.5 percent.
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The primary trade area is the consumer market where the study area has a significant competitive
advantage because of access, design, lack of quality competition and traffic and commute
patterns. This competitive advantage equates to a potential windfall in the capture of consumer
expenditure by the retailers in the study area. GPG defined a primary trade area by topography,
vehicular access, strength of retail competition and residential growth patterns instead of
standardized “drive-times.” Consumers inside the primary trade area will account for up to 60 to
70 percent of the total sales captured by retailers in downtown Jackson.
Figure 5: The primary and secondary trade area map of downtown Jackson. The secondary trade area is shown above
outlined in green. Secondary trade area residents can conveniently reach the study area, but it will not be their preferred
shopping destination.
The following borders approximately delineate the primary trade area:
North – West Bellevue Street
South – Vicary Road
East – Wolf Lake Road
West – North Gibbs Road
The secondary or community-oriented trade area (Figure 5) extends in all directions to include
residents and workers who because of convenient access may in the future generate expenditure
for downtown Jackson retailers. The boundaries of the secondary or community-oriented trade
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12 January 2018area extend north to East Five Point Highway and Coy Road, east to North Dancer Road and
North Jackson Street, south to Lime Creek Road, and west to 16 ½ Mile Road. Residents who
live in the secondary, but not the primary, trade area will shop at downtown Jackson retailers
frequently, but the area will not be their primary shopping destination. Consumer expenditure by
these residents will account for 10 to 20 percent of retail sales.
Demographic Characteristics
Using data from Esri (Environmental Systems Research Institute) and the U.S. Census Bureau,
GPG obtained the most recent population and demographic characteristics (2017), and those
projected for 2023 for the defined trade area, as well as regional and statewide statistics.
Table 2: Demographic Comparisons
Primary Secondary
Characteristics Michigan USA
Trade Area Trade Area
2017 Population 140,400 305,600 10,024,800 327,514,300
2022 Population 141,400 307,500 10,131,000 341,323,600
2017-22 Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.14% 0.12% 0.21% 0.83%
2017 Households 53,600 117,400 3,940,000 123,158,900
2022 Households 54,200 118,400 3,986,500 128,069,400
2017-22 Projected Annual HH Growth
0.22% 0.17% 0.23% 0.79%
Rate
Persons Per Household 2017 2.44 2.49 2.49 2.48
Median Age 40.5 41.9 40.1 38.2
2017 Median Household Income $48,400 $51,400 $52,100 $56,100
2017 Average Household Income $62,500 $65,700 $71,400 $80,700
2022 Median Household Income $52,100 $55,200 $56,400 $62,300
2022 Average Household Income $70,800 $74,500 $80,600 $91,600
% Households w. incomes $75,000+ 28.5% 30.9% 33.6% 34.0%
% Bachelor’s Degree or higher 20.9% 21.8% 28.3% 28.7%
Table 2: This side-by-side table compares and contrasts the primary trade area demographic statistics with those of the
secondary trade area, Michigan and the USA.
The primary trade area has an estimated 2018 population of 140,400 persons, which will increase
at an annual rate of 0.14 percent to 141,400 by 2023. This population growth rate is less than the
growth rates projected for the state and nation, but slightly greater than that for the secondary
trade area. The number of households in the primary trade area will slightly increase from 53,600
to 54,200, holding 2.4 persons per household. Median household income is $48,400 and is
expected to increase to $52,100 by 2023. Average household income in the primary trade area is
$62,500, while 28.5 percent of households earn over $75,000 per year – lower than state and
national figures. Displaying lower levels of education than the state, 20.9 percent of residents over
the age of 25 have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 28.3 percent for Michigan.
The median age is slightly older than the state at 40.5.
The secondary trade area demonstrates a lower growth rate in households than that for the
primary trade area, state and nation. There are 305,600 residents increasing by 0.12 percent
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12 January 2018annually to 307,500 by 2023. This growth rate is slightly lower than the annual growth rate for the
primary trade area, and notably lower than that for the state and nation. The number of
households is 117,400, increasing to 118,400 by 2023. Median household income in the area is
$51,400 and the average household income is $65,700, both of which are higher than the primary
trade area. Median household incomes are expected to increase to $55,200 by 2023, while
average household incomes will have grown by 13.4 percent to $74,500. Educational attainment
of a bachelor’s degree or higher is at 21.8 percent and 30.9 percent of households earn more
than $75,000 annually. The median age is 41.9.
Approximately 88.0 percent of primary trade area homes are occupied, and the median home
value is estimated to be $129,600. Of all households, 61.8 percent are owner-occupied, a number
that has decreased 7.1 percent since 2010 and is expected to continue downward to 61.2 percent
by 2023. Renter-occupied households have increased from 24.9 percent in 2010 to 26.3 percent
in 2018; this statistic is projected to basically be the same, at 26.2 percent, by 2023. The vacancy
rate has stayed constant, at 12.0 percent, from 2010 through 2018, and is expected to trend just
slightly upwards to 12.6 percent by 2023. The percentage of housing units valued at over
$200,000 is expected to increase from 27.2 percent to 40 percent – coinciding with an increase in
the median home value to $171,400 by 2023.
Figure 6: The relative proportions of the top twenty Tapestry Lifestyle segments found in the primary trade area.
Tapestry Lifestyles
Esri has developed Tapestry Lifestyles, which is an attempt to create 65 classifications, or
lifestyle segments, that help determine purchasing patterns. These segments are broken down to
the U.S. Census Block Group level and used by many national retailers to help determine future
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12 January 2018potential locations. The following Table 3 details the top Tapestry Lifestyles found in the primary
trade area.
Table 3: Tapestry Lifestyles
Trade Area
Lifestyle Short Description
Statistics
Population Salt of the Earth residents are entrenched in their
16,200 traditional, rural lifestyles. Citizens here are older, and
many have grown children that have moved away. They still
Households cherish family time and also tending to their vegetable
7,900 gardens and preparing homemade meals. Residents
embrace the outdoors; they spend most of their free time
Median HH Income preparing for their next fishing, boating, or camping trip.
$53,000 Cost-conscious consumers, they are loyal to brands they
14.6% Primary Trade like, with a focus on buying American. Residents often
Area Households tackle home remodeling and improvement jobs themselves.
Market Share These conservative consumers prefer to conduct their
business in person rather than online. They use an agent to
2.9% National purchase insurance.
Salt of the Earth Households
Market Share
Population Residents in this segment live primarily in low-density,
12,300 settled neighborhoods in the Midwest. The households
are a mix of married-couple families and singles. Many
Households families encompass two generations who have lived and
6,500 worked in the community; their children are likely to follow
suit. The manufacturing, retail trade, and health care
Median HH Income sectors are the primary sources of employment for these
$37,000 residents. This is a younger market—beginning
householders who are juggling the responsibilities of living
12.1% Primary Trade on their own or a new marriage, while retaining their
Area Household Market youthful interests in style and fun. Traditional Living are
Share cost-conscious consumers that are comfortable with brand
Traditional Living loyalty, unless the price is too high. Connected and
1.9% National comfortable with the Internet, they are more likely to
Market Share participate in online gaming or to access dating websites.
Population Well settled and close-knit, Heartland Communities are
8,600 semirural and semiretired. These older householders are
primarily homeowners, and many have paid off their
Households mortgages. Their children have moved away, but they have
4,600 no plans to leave their homes. Their hearts are with the
country; they embrace the slower pace of life here but
Median HH Income actively participate in outdoor activities and community
$39,000 events. Traditional and patriotic, these residents support
their local businesses, always buy American, and favor
8.5% Primary Trade domestic driving vacations over foreign plane trips.
Area Households Market
Share These are budget savvy consumers; they stick to
Heartland Communities brands they grew up with and know the price of
2.3% National goods they purchase. Buying American is important.
Households
Market Share
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12 January 2018Trade Area
Lifestyle Short Description
Statistics
Population The backbone of older industrial cities in states surrounding
8,600 the Great Lakes, Rustbelt Traditions residents are a mix of
married-couple families and singles living in older
Households developments of single-family homes. While varied, the
4,500 work force is primarily white collar, with a higher
concentration of skilled workers in manufacturing, retail
Median HH Income trade, and health care. Rustbelt Traditions represents a
$49,000 large market of stable, hard-working consumers with
modest incomes but above average net worth. Family
8.4% Primary Trade oriented, they value time spent at home. Most have lived,
Area Households Market worked, and played in the same area for years.
Share
Rustbelt Traditions Residents take advantage of convenience stores for fueling
2.2% National up and picking up incidentals. Watching television is a
Market Share common pastime; many households have more than four
TVs. Rustbelt Traditions are connected to electronics.
Favorite family restaurants include Applebee’s, Outback
Steakhouse, and Texas Roadhouse.
Population The Green Acres lifestyle features country living and self-
9,100 reliance. They are avid do-it-yourselfers, maintaining and
remodeling their homes, with all the necessary power tools
Households to accomplish the jobs. Gardening, especially growing
4,200 vegetables, is also a priority, again with the right tools,
tillers, tractors and riding mowers. Outdoor living also
Median HH Income features a variety of sports: hunting and fishing,
$72,000 motorcycling, hiking and camping, and even golf. Self-
described conservatives, residents of Green Acres remain
7.9% Primary Trade pessimistic about the near future yet are heavily invested in
Area Households it.
Market Share
Green Acres The purchasing choices of Green Acres residents
3.2% National reflect their country life, as they prefer vehicles such
Households as trucks, SUVs, ATVs and motorcycles. They are
Market Share
cautious consumers and focus on quality and
durability.
Table 3: The top five Tapestry Lifestyle groups profiled above portray a wide range of demographic groups in a
more rural setting.
The primary trade area’s most prominent lifestyle group is “Salt of the Earth,” which represents
14.6 percent of households. Concentrated in the Midwest, this group lives mostly in rural settings.
The average household size is 2.58, and married couples are the dominant household type.
This group primarily lives in affordable single-family owner-occupied homes. They tend to tackle
home remodeling and improvement projects themselves. Due to their rural setting, Salt of the
Earth households overwhelmingly own two vehicles to cover their long commutes.
Forty-two percent of Salt of the Earth residents have only a high school diploma. They are
significantly above the national percentage of home ownership; 83.7 percent own a home
compared to 63.6 percent in the US. The median household income of $53,000 is just slightly
above the U.S. median of $51,000. Their median net worth is $134,000, substantially more than
the US median of $71,000. In terms of occupation, office and administrative support employs the
most workers in this group, followed by production and sales.
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12 January 2018Salt of the Earth residents are cost-conscious consumers who tend to be loyal to American
brands. They are the last to buy the latest and greatest products, and prefer to conduct business
in person rather than online
Figure 7: Health care and utilities employment are prevalent in the primary trade area due to the headquarters of
Consumers Energy (left; 2,400 employees) and Henry Ford Allegiance Health (right; 3,260 employees).
Employment Base
The employment picture found in the primary trade area reflects a concentrated services and
retail sector foundation, comprising 58.6 percent of total employment. Compared to the
secondary trade area, the percentage of employees in the primary trade area engaged in
manufacturing is low and the utility sector is strikingly large.
Table 4: Employment Comparison by Sector (SIC)
Primary Trade Secondary
Sector Michigan USA
Area Trade Area
Agriculture and Mining 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5%
Construction 2.7% 3.1% 3.3% 4.1%
Manufacturing 8.3% 12.7% 12.2% 8.6%
Transportation 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 3.0%
Communication 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
Utility 7.8% 4.7% 0.5% 0.7%
Wholesale Trade 6.4% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5%
Retail Trade 19.1% 18.6% 22.5% 20.7%
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 6.1% 4.8% 5.5% 6.6%
Services 39.5% 40.4% 41.5% 42.4%
Government 7.5% 6.8% 5.3% 6.7%
Unclassified 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Table 4: Services and Retail Trade comprise the bulk of primary trade area employment.
As shown in Table 4 above, the services sector accounts for the majority of employment (39.5
percent) in the primary trade area. However, this proportion is lower than that for the secondary
trade area and state. Within the services sector, a large percentage (17.3 percent of total
employment in the primary trade area) work in health services, compared to 15.2 percent who
work in health services in the secondary trade area and only 11.6 percent in the state.
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12 January 2018Table 5: Drive Time and Trade Area Employment by Industry Sector
5-Minute 10-Minute Primary
Employment Sector
Drive Time Drive Time Trade Area
Agriculture & Mining 10 100 100
Construction 200 1,200 2,000
Manufacturing 1,000 3,900 5,800
Transportation 400 900 1,200
Communication 40 100 700
Utility 5,100 5,400 5,200
Wholesale Trade 500 2,800 4,500
Retail Trade 1,700 9,900 13,500
Home Improvement 60 600 900
General Merchandise Stores 50 1,700 2,000
Food Stores 100 1,300 2,100
Auto Dealers, Gas Stations, Auto Aftermarket 500 1,300 1,700
Apparel & Accessory Stores 30 200 300
Furniture & Home Furnishings 60 500 500
Eating & Drinking Places 600 3,100 4,500
Miscellaneous Retail 300 1,200 1,500
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 2,900 3,700 4,300
Banks, Savings, & Lending Institutions 200 500 700
Securities Brokers 100 100 200
Insurance Carriers & Agents 400 600 700
Real Estate, Holding, Other Investment Offices 2,200 2,500 2,700
Services 10,800 19,400 28,000
Hotels & Lodging 0 100 300
Automotive Services 100 500 900
Motion Pictures & Amusements 200 400 700
Health Services 7,700 11,200 12,200
Legal Services 100 200 200
Education Institutions & Libraries 500 1,500 5,700
Other Services 2,200 5,500 8,000
Government 2,000 3,700 5,300
Unclassified Establishments 0 10 0
Total Employment 24,650 51,110 70,600
Table 5: Downtown Jackson can capture daytime expenditure from workers within a ten-minute drive time by offering a
convenient collection of restaurants and shops.
As the second leading category of employment, retail workers account for 19.1 percent of
employment within the primary trade area. Within this category, eating and drinking places is the
leading subcategory of employment comprising 6.3 percent of total employment. The fact that
retail is the second largest employment sector in downtown Jackson’s primary trade area does
not necessarily mean that there is an oversupply of retail in the area; the size and scale of
retailers may require a significant number of workers, but this is not indicative of how well these
retailers are supplying goods and services to the surrounding community.
Daytime employment plays a large role in supporting retail. The primary trade area is estimated to
have 70,600 employees; an estimated 20,100 of them are office employees who are known to
expend at much higher rates, often eating out for lunch and shopping on the way to and from
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12 January 2018work. The mix of employees throughout the ten-minute drive time varies from the primary trade
area most noticeably in the services industry sector, with an additional 8,600 employees in the
primary trade area compared to the ten-minute drive time area. Services, retail and utility employ
the most people by industry inside the ten-minute drivetime with 19,400, 9,900 and 5,400 jobs,
respectively. With 24,650 workers within a five-minute drive time, there appears to be many
captive daytime consumers close to the study area,
Table 6: Ten Minute Drive-Time Worker Expenditure
Office Non-Office
Weekly Annual Total
Category Worker Worker
Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure
Expenditure Expenditure
14,850 36,260
Prepared Food &
Beverage
Limited & Full-Service
$40 $2,300 $34,155,000 $83,398,000 $117,553,000
Restaurants
Drinking Places $20 $900 $13,365,000 $32,634,000 $45,999,000
Retail Goods
General Merchandise,
Apparel, Home
$70 $3,600 $53,460,000 $130,536,000 $183,996,000
Furnishings,
Electronics
Grocery $30 $1,600 $23,760,000 $58,016,000 $81,776,000
Convenience Items $20 $1,000 $14,850,000 $36,260,000 $51,110,000
Total $180 $9,400 $139,590.000 $340,844,000 $480,434,000
Table 6: Employees within ten minutes of the study site expend over $480.4 million dollars annually.
Consumer expenditure from daytime employment compliments that captured in the evenings and
on weekends by households in the trade area. “Office Worker Retail Spending in a Digital Age,”
published by the International Council of Shopping Centers in 2012, provides insight into the
impact of office worker employment. Weekly office worker expenditure, adjusted for 2018 dollars,
is estimated at $180. Weekly non-office worker expenditure is estimated at 37 percent of office
workers. Non-office workers are estimated to have slightly less disposable income, to have
multiple work locations including at home, and typically are on the road more during their
workweek. Retail purchases (general merchandise, apparel, home furnishings, electronics,
grocery and convenience items) make up the majority of the office worker dollars, at $120 per
week. Restaurant expenditures (full service, limited service and drinking places) account for the
balance at $40 per week. Annualized, each office worker expends $9,400 before, during and after
work.
The annual impact of over 51,000 workers within ten minutes of downtown Jackson is $480.4
million. This expenditure breaks down to include $163.6 million in prepared food and beverage
establishments, $81.8 million in grocery purchases, $184.0 million in retail sales and $51.1 million
in convenience items. Catering to the daytime worker crowd with fast-casual restaurants,
convenient on-street parking and extended evening hours may increase the worker expenditure
captured by study area retailers.
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12 January 2018TRADE AREA CHARACTERISTICS
Figure 8: The city of Jackson is the county seat of Jackson County, and Jackson’s primary trade area features a plethora
of picturesque golf courses.
Location
The primary trade area, which measures 482 square miles, is located in south central Michigan.
From downtown Jackson, it stretches north for approximately 14 miles, east for 10 miles, west for
13 miles, and south for 12 miles. These boundaries are approximately 20 miles south of Lansing,
25 miles east of Battle Creek, and 25 miles west of Ann Arbor. With the exception of the city of
Jackson, the primary trade area is largely rural and encompasses a number of small towns. The
area’s many golf courses draw many tourists to the area. In fact, the primary trade area has one
of the highest number of golf courses per capita in the country. It is also home to several
institutions of higher education such as Jackson College (formerly Jackson Community College),
Baker College, and Spring Arbor University.
Table 7: Traffic Counts
Location Traffic Count
I-94 & Lansing Avenue 60,600
I-94 & Hawkins Road 50,500
I-94 & Blackman Road 30,100
US-127 & Page Avenue 28,800
US-127 & Wetherby Road 19,500
E. Michigan Avenue & Park Avenue 18,700
Spring Arbor Road & Arbor Hills Road 17,300
W. Michigan Avenue & 4th Street 16,800
Cooper Street & North Street 14,800
W. Louis Glick Highway. & Jackson St. 11,600
W. Washington Avenue & Mechanic St. 9,400
Table 7: The traffic chart shows the heaviest traffic on I-94, to the north of the study area (Source:
www.michigan.gov/mdot/)
16. Downtown Jackson Market Study
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12 January 2018Access
Regional linkage is strong in the primary trade area. I-94 (running east-west), which is
approximately two miles north of the study area, connects the primary trade area to Ann Arbor to
the east and Battle Creek to the west. US-127 (running north-south), which is approximately
three miles east of the study area, connects the primary trade area to Lansing to the north.
Furthermore, there is a dense network of roads surrounding downtown Jackson that makes the
study site easily accessible. In particular, significant traffic enters downtown Jackson from the
north via Cooper Street and North Francis Street, east via East Michigan Avenue, south via South
Cooper Street, and west via West Michigan Avenue.
Traffic volumes seen in Table 7 confirm the routes with the best access: the main commuting
routes of I-94 and US-127. With convenient road capacity, existing and future retailers will be
exposed to a significant number of consumers; however, appropriate signage is necessary to
guide patrons to their ultimate shopping destination.
Other Shopping Areas
Table 8: Shopping Center Competition
Retail Distance
Retail Center Name Shopping Center Type
Size (sf) to Downtown
Jackson Crossing Regional Center 674,000 sf 1.7 miles
Westwood Mall Regional Center 510,000 sf 1.2 miles
Merchant’s Crossing Community Center 110,000 sf 1.4 miles
Meijer Big Box Store 245,000 sf 2.7 miles
Menards Big Box Store 195,000 sf 3.0 miles
Table 8 & Figure 9: Map of the competing regional and community shopping centers, as well as big box stores.
Downtown Jackson Market Study 17.
Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.
12 January 2018Figure 10: Celebration of Paka Plaza’s grand opening in November 1961 (pictured on left), and current photo of Jackson
Crossing (pictured on right).
Jackson Crossing
What is now known as Jackson Crossing, was first introduced as Paka Plaza which opened in
1961. Originally, it was an outdoor strip mall with only 34 stores. Its original tenants included
Kroger, W.T. Grant, and Woolworth. In 1973, after the opening of Jackson’s first enclosed mall
(Westwood Mall), Paka Plaza’s open-air walkway between stores became enclosed. The
shopping center experienced substantial growth and by its 25th anniversary in 1975 had expanded
to 43 stores. In 1990, Ramco-Gershenson Inc. bought Paka Plaza and renamed it Jackson
Crossing. Ramco-Gershenson undertook a $25 million project to revamp the shopping center,
which more than doubled its square footage. Today, Jackson Crossing contains 674,000 SF of
retail space and has over 60 stores and a 10-screen movie theater. Its current anchor tenants
include Sears, Target, Kohl’s, Toys “R” Us, Best Buy, TJ Maxx and Bed Bath & Beyond. Other
popular destination tenants include MC Sports (which was newly expanded in 2016), Bath & Body
Works, Famous Footwear, Children’s Place, and Claire Boutique
Figure 11: When it opened in 1972, Westwood Mall became Jackson’s first enclosed shopping center.
Westwood Mall
Westwood Mall opened in 1972 and was developed by Forbes-Cohen. When it opened, the
mall’s anchor tenants were J.W. Knapp Company and Montgomery Ward. However, in 1980, the
J.W. Knapp store sold to JC Penney. Then in 1993, Elder-Beerman was added as a third anchor
tenant. Several stores closed in the mall in the late 2000s, including Gap, Ritz Camera and
Crown & Carriage Gifts (an original tenant). However, even after these closings, the mall retained
an occupancy rate that exceeded the national average. Today, the Westwood Mall has 510,000
18. Downtown Jackson Market Study
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12 January 2018sf of retail space and features over 50 stores with anchor tenants JC Penney, Walmart and
Younkers. It is owned and managed by Rouse Properties, a division of General Growth
Properties.
Figure 12: In terms of square footage, Kroger and Big Lots are Merchant Crossing’s largest tenants.
Merchant’s Crossing
Merchant’s Crossing was developed by MI-Abrams Industries in 1974. This 110,000 SF shopping
center is situated directly south of Jackson Crossing and less than one mile north of the
Westwood Mall. It is anchored by Kroger, Big Lots, and Family Dollar. In 2005, MI-Abrams
Industries sold Merchant’s Crossing for $7.4 million, and the shopping center is now owned and
managed by BCWood Properties.
Large Format Retailers
In addition to its shopping centers, the city of Jackson has two notable stand-alone large format
retailers – a Meijer and a Menards. The Meijer is located at 2777 Airport Road and has
approximately 245,000 SF of retail space. The Menards is located at 3588 Page Avenue and
contains approximately 195,000 SF of retail space.
SUMMARY of FINDINGS
This study finds that downtown Jackson’s primary trade area is presently supportable with up to
108,400 additional square feet (sf) of retail and restaurant development, generating nearly $31.9
million in new sales. The new retail can potentially capture up to $33.5 million by 2023. This retail
development could include:
• Corner Stores: One to two corner stores at 1,500 to 2,500 sf, located at neighborhood
entries to support connectivity between the adjacent neighborhoods and downtown.
Locating the corner store(s) along the busiest entryway from the major local road
provides the best access to these store types.
• Convenience Centers: One to two 15,000 to 20,000 sf convenience centers located along
a primary corridor. Setting a center like this as close to residents as possible provides it
with greater economic success. They can be located in the first floor of a mixed-use
building as long as they can be seen from the primary road. These centers can include a
wide range of retailers such as apparel, bakeries or butchers, electronics, florists,
financial services, pharmacy, a full-service restaurant and office supplies.
Downtown Jackson Market Study 19.
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12 January 2018• Neighborhood Center: One 75,000 to 100,000 sf neighborhood center anchored by
grocery. The remainder of the gross leasable area would include apparel, gifts, jewelry,
shoes, sporting goods, furniture and home furnishings, electronics and a number of full-
and limited-service restaurants.
These retail centers could be developed as conventional shopping centers or most likely as filled
vacancies, infill or mixed-use redevelopment into the current walkable downtown.
A detailed examination of the supportable sf of retail uses is found in the following Table 9:
Table 9: 2018 & 2023 Supportable Retail Table
Downtown Jackson Primary Trade Area
Estimated
2018 2018 Estimated 2023 2023 Estimated No. of
Retail Category Supportable
Sales/SF Retail Sales Sales/SF Retail Sales Stores
SF
Retailers
Apparel Stores 9,300 $275 $2,557,500 $290 $2,697,000 4-5
Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 2,100 $305 $640,500 $320 $672,000 1
Book & Music Stores 1,400 $225 $315,000 $235 $329,000 1
Department Store Merchandise 11,600 $295 $3,422,000 $310 $3,596,000 4-5
Florists 1,100 $215 $236,500 $225 $247,500 1
Furniture Stores 2,100 $255 $535,500 $270 $567,000 1
Grocery Stores 19,500 $325 $6,337,500 $340 $6,630,000 1-2
Hardware 1,700 $240 $408,000 $250 $425,000 1
Home Furnishings Stores 3,400 $260 $884,000 $275 $935,000 1-2
Jewelry Stores 1,900 $330 $627,000 $345 $655,500 1
Lawn & Garden Supply Stores 800 $220 $176,000 $230 $184,000 1
Miscellaneous Store Retailers 10,100 $255 $2,575,500 $270 $2,727,000 4-6
Office Supplies & Gift Stores 1,400 $265 $371,000 $280 $392,000 1
Pharmacy 6,000 $305 $1,830,000 $320 $1,920,000 1-2
Shoe Stores 2,000 $280 $560,000 $295 $590,000 1-2
Specialty Food Stores 3,100 $295 $914,500 $310 $961,000 1-2
Sporting Goods & Hobby Stores 3,700 $250 $925,000 $265 $980,500 1-2
Retailer Totals 81,200 $270 $23,315,500 $284 $24,508,500 26 - 36
Restaurants
Bars, Breweries & Pubs 5,200 $290 $1,508,000 $305 $1,586,000 1-2
Full-Service Restaurants 7,900 $320 $2,528,000 $335 $2,646,500 2-3
Limited-Service Eating Places 9,000 $330 $2,970,000 $345 $3,105,000 3-4
Special Food Services 5,100 $305 $1,555,500 $320 $1,632,000 3-5
Restaurant Totals 27,200 $311 $8,561,500 $326 $8,969,500 9 - 14
Retailer & Restaurant Totals 108,400 $278 $31,877,000 $292 $33,478,000 35 - 50
Table 9: Sales stated in constant 2018 dollars.
20. Downtown Jackson Market Study
Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.
12 January 2018The demographics of the primary trade area show a population base of 140,400, which will
increase to 141,400 by 2023, at an annual growth rate of 0.14 percent. The persons per
household is 2.44, and median age is 40.5 years old. Median household income of $48,400 in the
primary trade area is lower than state and national averages. The average household income is
$62,500 demonstrating a positive effect on spending potential from the top wage earners in the
area. Educational attainment is lower than state and national levels as 20.9 percent of residents
over the age of 25 have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Employment in the primary trade area favors the services sector (39.5 percent), while other strong
sectors include retail (19.1 percent) and manufacturing (8.3 percent). There are over 51,000
employees within a 10-minute drive of the study area and 24,650 employees within a five-minute
drive. These daytime consumers expend over $480.4 million annually before, after or during the
workday.
The trade area’s most prominent lifestyle group is “Salt of the Earth,” which represents 14.6
percent of households. Concentrated in the Midwest, this group lives mostly in rural areas, and
are households with one or two vehicles. The median household income of $53,000 is slightly
above the U.S. median. The median net worth is $134,000, substantially more than the US
median of $71,000. In terms of occupation, office and administrative support employs the most
workers in this group, followed by production and sales. Consumers in this lifestyle group are
cost-conscious and tend to buy American brands. They are the last to buy the latest and greatest
products, and prefer to conduct business in person rather than online. This group considers
spending time with family to be their top priority. Lastly, they try to eat healthy, and track the
nutrition and ingredients in the food they purchase.
Retail Category Definitions
Retail categories in the Supportable Retail Table correspond to the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS), the standard used by Federal statistical agencies in classifying
business establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data
related to the U.S. business economy. The following NAICS codes and definitions are provided by
the U.S. Census Bureau:
Retail
Auto Supply Stores (4411): establishments known as automotive supply stores primarily
engaged in retailing new, used, and/or rebuilt automotive parts and accessories,
automotive supply stores that are primarily engaged in both retailing automotive parts and
accessories and repairing automobiles; establishments primarily engaged in retailing and
installing automotive accessories; and establishments primarily engaged in retailing new
and/or used tires and tubes or retailing new tires in combination with automotive repair
services.
Furniture Stores (4421): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new furniture, such
as household furniture (e.g., baby furniture box springs and mattresses) and outdoor
furniture; office furniture (except those sold in combination with office supplies and
equipment); and/or furniture sold in combination with major appliances, home electronics,
home furnishings and/or floor coverings.
Home Furnishings Stores (4422): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new home
furnishings (except furniture).
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12 January 2018Electronics and Appliance Stores (4431): establishments primarily engaged in retailing
the following new products: household-type appliances (refrigerator, dishwasher, oven),
cameras, computers/software, televisions and other electronic goods.
Hardware Stores (4441): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new building
materials and supplies (lumber, plumbing, electrical, tools, housewares, hardware, paint,
and wallpaper).
Lawn and Garden Supply Stores (4442): establishments primarily engaged in retailing
new lawn and garden equipment and supplies. (Nursery, farm and garden products,
outdoor power equipment).
Grocery Stores (4451): establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of
food products (canned/frozen food, fruits and vegetables, meat, fish, poultry, milk, bread,
eggs, soda).
Specialty Food Stores (4452): establishments primarily engaged in retailing specialized
lines of food (meat, fish/seafood, fruits/vegetables, baked goods, candy, nuts,
confections, popcorn, ice cream, items not made on the premises).
Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores (4453): establishments primarily engaged in retailing
packaged alcoholic beverages, such as ale, beer, wine and liquor.
Health & Personal Care Stores (4461): establishments primarily engaged in retailing
health and personal care products (pharmacies/drug stores, first aid, beauty products,
household supplies, candy, prepackaged snacks, optical goods, vitamins/supplements).
Clothing stores (4481): men’s and boys’ clothing stores; women’s and girls’ clothing
stores; children’s and infants’ clothing stores; family clothing stores; clothing accessories
stores.
Shoe Stores (4482): Shoes (men’s, women’s, child/infant, athletic).
Jewelry Stores (4483): Jewelry, luggage, and leather goods (silverware, watches, clocks,
handbags, briefcases, belts, gloves).
Sporting Goods Stores (4511): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new sporting
goods (fitness equipment, bikes, camping, uniforms and footwear).
Book & Music Stores (4512): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new books,
newspapers, magazines, and prerecorded audio and video media.
Department Stores (4521): establishments known as department stores primarily
engaged in retailing a wide range of the following new products with no one merchandise
line predominating: apparel; furniture; appliances and home furnishings; and selected
additional items, such as paint, hardware, toiletries, cosmetics, photographic equipment,
jewelry, toys and sporting goods. Merchandise lines are normally arranged in separate
departments.
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Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.
12 January 2018General Merchandise Stores (4529): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new
goods in general merchandise stores (except department stores) (warehouse clubs,
supercenters, apparel, auto parts, dry goods, hardware, groceries, housewares, no line
predominating).
Florists (4531): establishments known as florists primarily engaged in retailing cut
flowers, floral arrangements, and potted plants purchased from others. These
establishments usually prepare the arrangements they sell.
Office Supplies & Gift Stores (4532): establishments primarily engaged in one or more of
the following: (1) retailing new stationery, school supplies, and office supplies; (2) retailing
a combination of new office equipment, furniture, and supplies; (3) retailing new office
equipment, furniture, and supplies in combination with retailing new computers; and (4)
retailing new gifts, novelty merchandise, souvenirs, greeting cards, seasonal and holiday
decorations and curios.
Miscellaneous Retailers (4539): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new
miscellaneous specialty store merchandise (except motor vehicle and parts dealers;
furniture and home furnishings stores; consumer-type electronics and appliance stores;
building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers; food and beverage stores;
health and personal care stores; gasoline stations; clothing and clothing accessories
stores; sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores; general merchandise stores;
florists; office supplies, stationery, and gift stores; and used merchandise stores). Pet
supplies, art dealers, manufactured home dealers, tobacco/cigar stores,
Restaurants
Full-Service Restaurants (7221): establishments primarily engaged in providing food
services to patrons who order and are served while seated (i.e., waiter/waitress service)
and pay after eating. Establishments that provide these types of food services to patrons
with any combination of other services, such as carryout services are classified in this
industry.
Limited-Service Restaurants (7222): establishments primarily engaged in providing food
services where patrons generally order or select items and pay before eating. Most
establishments do not have waiter/waitress service, but some provide limited service,
such as cooking to order (i.e., per special request), bringing food to seated customers, or
providing off-site delivery (cafeterias, snack/ juice bar, ice cream/soft serve shops, cookie
shops, popcorn shops, donut shops, coffee shops, bagel shops).
Special Food Services (7223): establishments primarily engaged in providing one
of the following food services (2) a location designated by the customer; or (3)
from motorized vehicles or non-motorized carts.
• Food Service Contractors: Establishments may be engaged in providing food
services at institutional, governmental, commercial, or industrial locations of
others based (cafeteria, restaurant, and fast food eating-place) on contractual
arrangements with these types of organizations for a specified period of time.
Management staff is always provided by the food services contractor.
• Caterers: providing single event-based food services. These establishments
generally have equipment and vehicles to transport meals and snacks to
events and/or prepare food at an off-premise site. Banquet halls with catering
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12 January 2018staff are included in this industry. Examples of events catered by
establishments in this industry are graduation parties, wedding receptions,
business or retirement luncheons and trade shows.
• Mobile Food Services: establishments primarily engaged in preparing and
serving meals and snacks for immediate consumption from motorized vehicles
or non-motorized carts. The establishment is the central location from which the
caterer route is serviced, not each vehicle, or cart. Included in this industry are
establishments primarily engaged in providing food services from vehicles,
such as hot dog carts and ice cream trucks.
Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) (7224): establishments primarily engaged in
preparing and serving alcoholic beverages for immediate consumption (bars, taverns,
nightclubs).
Shopping Center Definitions
This study utilizes the shopping centers typologies defined by the International Council of
Shopping Centers (ICSC) as follows:
• Convenience Centers: Convenience centers are 30,000 sf or less, unanchored, and
generally will service a trade area of up to one mile. These centers include banking,
carryout foods, florists, mail centers, small restaurants, small food markets, and
professional services such as real estate and financial consulting. The centers typically
include six to eight businesses.
• Neighborhood Centers: Neighborhood centers are anchored with a full-sized
supermarket and typically range from 60,000 to 100,000 sf. They service a trade area
of two to three miles and can include apparel, banks, carryout food, hardware, mail
centers, restaurants, sporting goods and professional services such as financial
consulting and real estate.
• Community Centers: Community centers typically range from 150,000 to 300,000 sf
and are almost always anchored with a full-sized department store. They also include
junior anchor retailers selling books, crafts, shoes, and sporting goods. Community
centers often include large home improvement stores and medium-sized discount
apparel stores. Their service area is typically five to seven miles in suburban
locations.
• Lifestyle Centers: Lifestyle centers average 150,000 to 200,000 sf and feature
popular apparel, book, and home furnishing stores, as well as cinemas and a wide
selection of themed restaurants. The centers are frequently planned as walkable
areas with main streets. Recently, lifestyle centers have included large anchors such
as department stores, public libraries, and supermarkets. These centers typically
have a trade area of four to six miles when developed in suburban settings. Lifestyle
centers that include civic, employment, and residential buildings along with the retail
land use are defined as ‘town centers.’
• Regional Centers: Regional centers average trade areas of eight to 12 miles
and are anchored with multiple department stores. The centers can range from
800,000 to 1,500,000 sf, and often include cinemas along with 200,000 sf of
national brand fashion.
24. Downtown Jackson Market Study
Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.
12 January 2018Rationale
The rationale for the findings in this study follows:
• Underserving retail: Despite two rather outdated regional malls within downtown
Jackson’s primary trade area, current retail is underserving the population represented by
$31.9 million in sales that could be captured by new or existing retailers.
• Expansive trade areas; The primary trade area is 482 square miles, and its secondary
trade area is 2,284 miles. Obviously, the ability to draw consumers from such a vast
distance is a major advantage for retailers. Furthermore, the city of Jackson is the county
seat of Jackson County, and its distance from other populous cities provides a captive
audience for retailers.
Favorable regional access: The primary trade area is well connected by numerous
highways, particularly I-94 and US-127.
Limits of Study
The findings of this study represent GPG’s best estimates for the amounts and types of retail
projects that should be supportable in the study area. Every reasonable effort has been made to
ensure that the data contained in this study reflect the most accurate and timely information
possible and are believed to be reliable. This study is based on estimates, assumptions, and
other information developed by GPG independent research effort, general knowledge of the
industry, and consultations with the client and its representatives. This study is designed as
objective third-party research and GPG does not recommend that any or all of the supportable
retail be developed in the study area.
No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, its agent and
representatives or in any other data source used in preparing or presenting this study. This report
is based on information that was current as of January 12, 2018 and GPG has not undertaken any
update of its research effort since such date.
This report may contain prospective financial information, estimates, or opinions that represent
GPG’s view of reasonable expectations at a particular time, but such information, estimates, or
opinions are not offered as predictions or assurances that a particular level of income or profit will
be achieved, that particular events will occur, or that a particular price will be offered or accepted.
The actual amounts of supportable retail could be significantly higher or lower depending on
multiple market and not market variables including the type, design and quality of the new
development. It is plausible that a walkable town center, with well-designed buildings and public
realm, could draw visitors from beyond this study’s estimated trade area boundaries and
considerably outperform the site’s location and limited market potential. This would require an
extraordinary development team and retailer mix unique to the market, including anchor
retailers. On the other hand, a poorly implemented commercial center or badly managed
businesses could underperform the location.
Actual results achieved during the period covered by our prospective financial analysis may vary
from those described in our report, and the variations may be material. Therefore, no warranty or
representation is made by GPG that any of the projected values or results contained in this study
will be achieved.
Downtown Jackson Market Study 25.
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