SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP

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SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT
INVESTMENT PLAN
May 2016
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN   CONTENTS

CONTENTS   01            A GROWING
                         ECONOMY                Page 7

           02            TRANSPORT
                         CHANGES                Page 15

           03            COMPARATIVE
                         BENCHMARKING           Page 27

           04
                        TRANSPORT
                        INVESTMENT              Page 31
                        PACKAGES

           05           CONCLUSIONS
                        AND NEXT STEPS          Page 43

           Appendices                           Page 44

                                                             3
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                FOREWORD                                                                                                                                                                      SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN   FOREWORD

FOREWORD                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    A £151.9M
Since the publication of our Growth Strategy in January                                                                                                                                                                                SOLENT GROWTH
2015, we have been working hard to help this world-                                                                                                                                                                                     DEAL WITH THE
class area achieve its full potential.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GOVERNMENT HAS
The Solent Strategic Economic Plan
(SEP): Transforming Solent aims to place
                                                We are pleased to see some early
                                                results from this work with the
                                                                                                                       investment and strategic plans* and at a
                                                                                                                       central government level, alongside the
                                                                                                                                                                                        Moving forward, with the continued thrust
                                                                                                                                                                                        towards devolution and the agreement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         BEEN AGREED
the Solent on a new and transformative          announcement by Highways England                                       investment and strategic plans of Network
                                                                                                                                                                                        of devolution deals nationally as well as a
growth trajectory and in order to do this       in September 2015 of major upgrades                                    Rail** and Highways England*** as well
                                                                                                                                                                                        devolution deal under negotiation locally,
we have set ourselves ambitious targets         to the Strategic Road Network over                                     as the investment plans of both local
                                                                                                                                                                                        there is a unique opportunity to secure
for growth and productivity. Meeting this       the next five years, including enhancing                               public transport operators and regionally
                                                                                                                                                                                        support from government for the local
aspiration requires the area to create          capacity on the M3 between Winchester                                  significant private commercial transport
                                                                                                                                                                                        area that underpins the aspirations and
conditions that support growth. We              and Southampton, enhancing capacity                                    infrastructure operators including both                          ambitions of residents and businesses in
have recently published a Productivity          on the M27 between Southampton and                                     airport and ports.                                               the Solent. Our strategy remains focussed
and Growth Supplement, which                    Fareham through SMART Motorways,                                                                                                        on securing high growth opportunities
highlights the need for significant             a comprehensive improvement to the                                     This plan sets out a clear and bold                              for the Solent, working with the business
investment to modernise our transport           strategic freight route interchange at                                 ambition that in the period to 2040                              community, individual businesses, local
system, recognising that transport has          Junction 9 of the M3 with the A34,                                     we support and prioritise strategic                              key partners such as Solent Transport,
a vital role to play by bringing businesses     and junction improvements around                                       transport investment in the Solent that                          as well as central government and
and people closer together and fostering        Southampton on the M27 and M271,                                       will underpin the development of the                             its agencies. This Strategic Transport
the agglomeration economies that make           improving access to the Port of                                        Solent so that it can achieve its economic                       Investment Plan provides a framework
cities work. Transport connects people          Southampton.                                                           potential. The Plan focusses on those                            within which we can accelerate the
to jobs and products to markets, it                                                                                    economically transformative and longer                           delivery of the Solent Strategic Economic
underpins supply chains and logistics           This document seeks to provide a                                       term investments necessary to support                            Plan, increasing productivity in the area
networks, and it is fundamental to              strategic investment framework for the                                 and unlock the Solent’s growth potential                         and enabling the economy and people of
domestic and international trade. The           area and it seeks to inform the refresh of                             over the next 25 years, with a metro-style                       the Solent to achieve their full potential.
connectivity, condition and capacity of         our Solent Strategic Economic Plan (SEP).                              public transport service connecting our
our transport network is therefore critical     It will also inform further dialogue with                              cities playing a central role, alongside                         This document has been developed in a
for improving productivity and increasing       government, enabling us to build on the                                improved rail connectivity to London. It is                      changing environment and will be updated
wealth creation. Key to this will be the        investment commitments already made,                                   recognised that alongside this we need to                        to reflect changes in the local economy,
need to identify intelligent transport          with a view to securing a greater level of                             embrace new and emerging innovations                             new innovations in technology****, as
solutions to support the area’s ambitions.      commitment to collective planning and                                  in transport including the adoption of                           well as the need to respond to new local
                                                delivery of strategic transport across all                             autonomous and driverless solutions.                             growth opportunities that may come
We have already agreed a £151.9m                modes in the Solent and connecting the                                 It is our intention that these creative                          forward under devolution.
Solent Growth Deal with government,             Solent to its markets.                                                 opportunities underpin the development
funding a number of new infrastructure                                                                                 of our transport investment proposal as
and skills capital projects starting in         This document underpins the Solent                                     we move forward.
2015. Furthermore, government has               Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) and
worked with Solent LEP and local                should be read alongside the SEP and
                                                                                                                      ** Wessex Route Specification: http://www.networkrail.co.uk/
partners to create the Solent Strategic         our Productivity and Growth Supplement,                               Network_specification_Wessex.aspx
Land and Infrastructure Board (SSLIB)           as well as alongside, local transport                                 Control Period 5 Delivery Plan: http://www.networkrail.co.uk/
                                                                                                                      publications/delivery-plans/control-period-5/cp5-delivery-plan/
to take a strategic view of public land
                                                                                                                      *** Roads Investment Study: https://www.gov.uk/government/
                                                * Transport Delivery Plan: http://documents.hants.gov.uk/transport-
and property in the area, and to support        for-south-hampshire/TransportDeliveryPlan.pdf
                                                                                                                      publications/road-investment-strategy-for-the-2015-to-2020-
                                                                                                                      road-period. Highways England Delivery Plan: https://www.gov.
the joint planning and delivery of transport.   Local Transport Plan 3 Joint Strategy for South Hampshire: http://    uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/             Gary Jeffries
                                                www3.hants.gov.uk/local-transport-plan-strategy-south-hampshire       file/424467/DSP2036-184_Highways_England_Delivery_Plan_
                                                                                                                                                                                        Solent LEP Chairman
                                                Island Transport Plan: https://www.iwight.com/azservices/             FINAL_low_res_280415.pdf                                          Image: Britannia Cruise Liner
                                                documents/1190-itp-strategy-v1.pdf                                    **** Including the adoption of driverless vechiles                Credit: Associated British Ports
 4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP
01
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN          INTRODUCTION                                                                                                                                               SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                         A GROWING ECONOMY

INTRODUCTION                                                                                                                             A GROWING ECONOMY
In 2014, as part of the process to agree Solent’s Local Growth Deal with the UK                                                          An analysis of the Solent’s historic growth and future
Government, the Solent Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) produced a Strategic                                                           forecasts show that economic, land use and transport
Economic Plan (SEP) to outline a transformative vision for the future growth of the                                                      decisions are inextricably linked. The starting point
local economy.                                                                                                                           for the Strategic Transport Investment Plan is a
                                                                                                                                         consideration of the nature, scale and potential
Central to this vision is the need for a      Furthermore, efficient and effective          This Strategic Transport Investment          of the Solent’s economy.
modern and resilient transport network        transport infrastructure and operations       Plan outlines the economic potential
that can enable the region to fulfil its      are fundamental to attracting and retaining   and current performance of the Solent,
economic potential by providing the           a highly-skilled labour force which is        the likely trends of future growth and       A GATEWAY BASED ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
conditions that enable businesses             increasingly mobile in an ever more           the existing transport challenges the
                                                                                                                                         The Solent is a significant sub-regional         presence, as well as natural assets of                         most notably in the marine and maritime
and people to thrive and productivity         globalised economy. If the Solent area        area faces. Drawing from available
                                                                                                                                         gateway economy with strengths across            green infrastructure and an attractive                         sector, and also in defence, logistics,
to increase. To this end, the LEP has         aims not just to maintain but to grow its     evidence, stakeholder dialogue and new
                                                                                                                                         a range of industries in the private sector.     quality of life.                                               and advanced manufacturing (including
worked in partnership with AECOM to           comparative economic strengths, they          comparative benchmarking, the Plan
                                                                                                                                         At £25 billion GVA, the annual economic                                                                         advanced materials and photonics),
produce a Strategic Transport Investment      must act now to produce and deliver           proposes an investment framework in
                                                                                                                                         output of the area accounts for one sixth        As a consequence of these economic                             aerospace, and digital (creative and
Plan that can support the area and its        a strategy for a transport system that        which a series of investment packages
                                                                                                                                         of that of the whole of South East of            assets, the three Solent “ports” and                           cyber security) are some of the principal
two major economic engines,                   reflects the goals and ambition of            have been identified. These packages
                                                                                                                                         England. Key economic strengths include          their respective cities contain important                      industries which along with tourism benefit
Southampton and Portsmouth,                   the area.                                     could be implemented as the next
                                                                                                                                         high technology clusters, the SME base,          clustered sectors and concentrations of                        from the unique economic environment in
to succeed and grow in a globally                                                           steps on the road towards the Solent
                                                                                                                                         a strong higher and further education            economic activity and smart specialisation,                    the Solent.
competitive economic environment.             This Plan outlines a series of                developing the necessary modern
                                              transformative evidence-based proposals       transport network that can enable it
It is essential that the Solent is not        which AECOM has produced from wide-           to achieve its economic potential.           Figure 1.1 Key sectors in the Solent’s Gateway Economy
complacent about achieving a successful       ranging consultation, review of research
and sustainable economic future. In           and new analysis that have found the          Individual and larger versions of the maps
particular, it cannot afford to ignore the    need and desire for investment in a           provided in this document are available in      GATEWAY ASSETS
                                                                                                                                            & CLUSTERS                                              Port of                                                               Port of
critical role that transport infrastructure   transport system for the Solent which         a supplementary document.                                                                            Southampton                                                            Portsmouth
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Logistics / Leisure                                                  Defence / Advanced
and operations play in connecting             can help deliver strong and sustainable                                                                                                                  Travel                              Southampton                  Manufacturing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Airport
key economic inputs – housing, skills,        economic growth. It highlights a range                                                                                                                                                   Economic Gateway
investment and innovation – to drive          of transport solutions that can act as
future economic growth.                       the focal point of a strategy for ensuring
                                              that the region can continue to attract                                                       COMPETITIVE
                                                                                                                                                                                          Marine                                                          Creative,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aviation &                                               Tourism
                                              inward investment, develop business                                                           ADVANTAGE                                   & Maritime                            Aerospace
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Cultural
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       & Visitor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          & Digital
                                              clusters, nurture local skills and talent,
                                              and build on existing assets in order for
                                              the area to successfully compete with
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Advanced
                                              similarly sized conurbations in the UK                                                                                                                 Manufacturing                           Defence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Transport
                                                                                                                                                                                                     (materials, composites                                            & Logistics
                                              and abroad, and deliver a transport                                                                                                                        & photonics)

                                              system befitting of the size, strength
                                              and aspiration of the region.
                                                                                                                                            SUPPORTING                                          Financial & business services, utilities / ICT, property & construction,
                                                                                                                                            SECTORS                                                   hospitality & personal services, health & public services

                                                                                                                                            ENABLING                                            Housing delivery, transport, skills development, inward and business
                                                                                                                                            INTERVENTIONS                                                      investment, new firms and innovation

 6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 7
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                                      A GROWING ECONOMY                                                                                                                                                                                                    SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                                             A GROWING ECONOMY

As a consequence of these economic                                    comparative advantages across its key                                 Long term population growth has been                         Figure 1.3 Population change across Solent areas (1981 – 2014)
assets, the three Solent “ports” and                                  sectors to realise economic value.                                    higher in the northern Solent areas.
their respective cities contain important                                                                                                   Eastleigh has grown by 39% between
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          POPULATION CHANGE BY LOCAL AREA 1981 - 2014
clustered sectors and concentrations of                                                                                                     1981 and 2014 adding 36,000 residents.
                                                                      LONG TERM POLYCENTRIC
economic activity and smart specialisation,                                                                                                 Higher than average growth for the period
                                                                      POPULATION AND                                                                                                                                                                                   Absolute Change                                      % Change
most notably in the marine and maritime                                                                                                     was also the case for East Hampshire
                                                                      HOUSING GROWTH
sector, and also in defence, logistics,                                                                                                     (28%), Fareham (28%), Test Valley (30%)
                                                                      Before we can consider future growth, it is                                                                                        50,000                                                                                                                                                                                                    45%
and advanced manufacturing (including                                                                                                       and Winchester (28%) (Figure 1.3).                                                          39%
                                                                                                                                                                                                         45,000                                                                                                                                                                                                    40%
advanced materials and photonics),                                    useful to review past trends in population
                                                                                                                                                                                                         40,000                                                                                                                                                                                                    35%
aerospace, and digital (creative and                                  and housing. According to ONS data,                                                                                                35,000          28%                           28%                                                                                                                     30%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     28%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   30%
cyber security) and tourism are some                                  1.6 million people live across the 12 local                                                                                        30,000                                                                                                              23%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   25%
                                                                      authority areas that either fully or in part                                                                                       25,000                                                                                           18%
of the principal industries which benefit                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       17%                                                20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                         20,000
from the unique and beneficial economic                               from the Solent LEP area, whilst 1.3 million                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 15%
                                                                                                                                                                                                         15,000                                                                                                                                   9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           8%
environment in the Solent. All of these                               live within the boundaries of the LEP                                                                                              10,000                                                                            6%                                                                                                                      10%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          26,200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   21,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     35,500

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       27,300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   33,700

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       17,700
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              25,800

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              36,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             25,300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                6,400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 6,500
industries are additionally supported by a                            itself1. Of the LEP population, more than                                                                                           5,000                                                                                                                                                                                                    5%

                                                                      450,000 people (38%) are concentrated                                                                                                    0                                                                                                                                                                                                   0%
wider supply chain that also serves local

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                                                                      within the boundaries of Portsmouth and

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population based demand (Figure 1.1).

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                                                                      Southampton.

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Nevertheless, in an era of global                                                                                                                                                                        Source: ONS, AECOM analysis.

competition, economic assets are only                                 Between 1981 and 2014 the population
ever relative and require continued                                   across all 12 local areas has grown by
investment in order to maintain their                                 264,000 residents, a total increase of
international attractiveness. Efficient and                           20% or 0.6% annually, which is equivalent
                                                                      to adding around 8,000 people each                                                                                                 The long term trend seems to be the                                Strong but polycentric population growth,
effective transport infrastructure is an
                                                                      year (Figure 1.2).                                                                                                                 emergence of an increasingly polycentric                           combined with evidence of clustered
essential component in the success and
                                                                                                                                                                                                         area with population spread more widely                            economic development, implies that
survival of economic clusters and the
                                                                                                                                                                                                         across the area and some decline in the                            transport infrastructure will play a critical
Solent must act now to strengthen its
                                                                                                                                                                                                         proportion of population accommodated                              function in providing satisfactory links
                                                                                                                                                                                                         in Portsmouth and Southampton which                                between homes and jobs. Ease or
Figure 1.2 Aggregated population in the Solent area (total population (1981 – 2014                                                                                                                       only grew by 9% and 17% respectively                               difficulty of commuting, and thus quality
                                                                                                                                                                                                         over the same period. However, in                                  of the transport network, is frequently
                                                                                                                                                                                                         absolute terms, the cities have still played                       highlighted as a key factor in area-based
                                                              SOLENT POPULATION 1981 -2014                                                                                                               a significant role in absorbing growth. For                        economic competitiveness whilst also
                                                                                                                                                                                                         example, from a low of 202,000 people in                           being important to the locational decisions
                                                                                                                                                                                                         1988 Southampton had grown by 44,000                               of high skilled and highly mobile labour.
 1,600,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                         people by 2014 (+22%) (Figure 1.4).
 1,550,000
 1,500,000                                                                                                                                                                                               More recently, there have been around
 1,450,000                                                                                                                                                                                               4,000 house completions each year
 1,400,000                                                                                                                                                                                               across the whole area. This is consistent
 1,350,000                                                                                                                                                                                               with Solent LEP’s aims to have completed
                                                                                                                                                                                                         24,000 houses by 2020, thus
 1,300,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                         accommodating around 55,000
 1,250,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                         additional residents.
 1,200,000
 1,150,000
                    2011
                    1981
                    1982
                    1983
                    1984
                    1985
                    1986
                    1987
                    1988
                    1989
                    1990
                    1991
                    1992
                    1993
                    1994
                    1995
                    1996
                    1997
                    1998
                    1999
                    2000
                    2001
                    2002
                    2003
                    2004
                    2005
                    2006
                    2007
                    2008
                    2009
                    2010

                    2012
                    2013
                    2014

Source: ONS, AECOM analysis.

1 The Solent LEP area includes the unitary authorities of Isle of Wight Council, Portsmouth City Council and Southampton City Council; Hampshire County Council and Eastleigh Borough Council, Fareham
Borough Council, Gosport Borough Council, Havant Borough Council and parts of East Hants District Council, New Forest District Council, Test Valley Borough Council and Winchester City Council.

  8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      9
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN               A GROWING ECONOMY                                                                                                                                                                                 SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN   A GROWING ECONOMY

CURRENT FORECASTS                               Figure 1.4 Growth trends by local area (1981 – 2014)                                                                                    RECENT FORECASTS INDICATE THE NEED FOR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            6,900
ARE FOR INCREASING                                                                                                                                                                      ADDITIONAL HOUSING
                                                                                    A MORE POLYCENTRIC AREA 1981 -2014
TRANSPORT DELAYS                                                                                                                                                                        As well as the existing transport forecasts,       As a result, the proportion of local

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        OCCUPIED
                                                                                                 Population % in 1981
The established evidence base (Appendix                                                                                                                                                 it is necessary to consider the impacts            residents in employment is expected to
                                                                                Proportion of Growth % 1981 - 2014    Population % in 2014
C) on transport issues in the Solent                                                                                                                                                    of more recent independent economic                increase, improving the local employment

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          HOMES
suggests that future growth will affect the      18.0%                                                                                                                                  projections completed for the Solent area.         rate and reducing unemployment.
                                                 16.0%
economic performance of the transport            14.0%
                                                                      13.8%                                                                             13.6%                                                                              However, population is also predicted
                                                                                                                                 12.9%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          WILL BE
network. Previous analysis (2013) has            12.0%
                                                                                                                                                                    10.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                        In 2014 alone, employment in the Solent            to grow faster than earlier forecasts,
                                                           9.9%                    9.7%                                                                                         10.0%
                                                 10.0%
forecast that total car trips will grow by                                                                          8.0%                                                                increased by 3% (+17,800 jobs), the                expanding by 11% by 2030 and being
                                                  8.0%                                                                                        6.8%
around 13% by 2026 and that the total                                                                                                                                                   strongest annual performance since 2002.           driven by increased in-migration. Firms

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        REQUIRED
                                                  6.0%
time lost in delays will increase by more         4.0%
                                                                                             2.4%       2.5%                                                                            However, recent independent forecasts              are forecast to absorb this growth by
                                                  2.0%
than 50% compared to current levels.                                                                                                                                                    by Oxford Economics (Spring 2015) have             employing additional staff as long term

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          BY 2020
                                                  0.0%
Most delays currently occur in the urban                                                                                                                                                been uprated and show that the area                productivity growth has not yet returned
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areas on radial routes into the city centres,                                                                                                                                           could potentially add 61,500 jobs by 2030          to pre-recession levels in the UK.

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as well as within the city centres. And                                                                                                                                                 with GVA growing by 2.7% per annum to

                                                                                                                                                     So
                                                Source: ONS, AECOM analysis.
these problems are forecast to worsen in                                                                                                                                                create a £40 billion economy (Figure 1.6).         The forecasts therefore suggest that an
the future (Figure 1.5).                                                                                                                                                                Employment growth is forecast across a             additional 6,900 occupied homes will be
                                                                                                                                                                                        number of sectors including professional,          required by 2020 and 16,400 by 2030
As a result, bus speeds into the cities and                                                                                                                                             scientific, technical and support services,        over and above earlier forecasts.
                                                Figure 1.5 Forecast future increases in congestion on Solent road network
towns will continue to be low and variable.                                                                                                                                             ICT, cultural and hospitality industries, retail
Furthermore, potential locations for new                                                                                                                                                and construction (Figure 1.7).
housing and population growth are likely
to require longer journeys to work and
could reinforce car dependency unless
                                                                                                                                                                                        Figure 1.6 Total employment forecast in the Solent to 2030, update vs previous (`Oxford Economics)
improvements in alternative modes are
delivered.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            TOTAL EMPLPOYMENT, SOLENT UPDATE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   VS PREVIOUS 2000 - 2030

CAR TRIPS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Update         Previous
WILL INCREASE
BY AROUND
                                                                                                                                                                                         700                                                                      Forecast

13%
                                                                                                                                                                                         680
                                                                                                                                                                                         660
                                                                                                                                                                                         640
                                                                                                                                                                                         620
                                                                                                                                                                                         600
                                                                                                                                                                                         580
                                                                                                                                                                                         560
                                                                                                                                                                                         540
                                                                                                                                                                                         520
                                                Source: Transport Delivery Plan 2012-2016, Transport for South Hampshire2 , 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                         500
                                                                                                                                                                                            2000                    2005                   2010               2015               2020            2025             2030

                                                2 Transport for South Hampshire is now named Solent Transport.

 10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  11
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                           A GROWING ECONOMY                                                                                                                                                                                   SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                                                               A GROWING ECONOMY

Figure 1.7 Percentage change in sectoral employment growth to 2030, update vs previous (Oxford Economics)                                                  Figure 1.8 Environmental constraints

                                              SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, SOLENT
                                                 UPDATE VS PREVIOUS, 2014 TO 2030
                                                                     Update           Previous

                               Real estate activities

   Professional, scientific and technical activities

                Arts, entertainment and recreation

                   Information and communication

       Accommodation and food service activities

       Administrative and support service activities

                                       Construction

                             Other service activities

                        Transportation and storage

           Human health and social work activities

                         Wholesale and retail trade

                  Financial and insurance activities

                                          Education

  Water supply; sewage and waste management

                    Agriculture, forestry and fishing

                 Public adminstration and defence

                                     Manufacturing

                         Electricity, gas and steam

                              Mining and quarrying                                                                                                         Source: AECOM GIS.

                                                        -4.0        -3.0            -2.0           -1.0           0.0             1.0              2.0
                                                                                                                                                           Figure 1.9 Development potential on selected major sites

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              POTENTIAL CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF 35 KEY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                DEVELOPMENT SITES TO EARLY 2030’S
With high quality land and marine                              The significant growth potential and         Working with local partners, AECOM
habitats that form a key element in                            likely future housing demand sets the        has identified selected major potential
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Homes                     Population
the attractiveness of the Solent, a key                        agenda for what future strategic transport   development sites across the Solent LEP
consideration is the potential locations                       investments must provide to ensure a         area. We estimate that together they could      80,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         69,563

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      69,672

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   69,781

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                69,890
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            69,454
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               67,652
of new development. The various                                growing and productive economy.              accommodate 30,400 homes, around

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  65,850
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     62,009
                                                                                                                                                            70,000
ecological and environmental constraints                                                                    70,000 new residents and 39,000 jobs

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        57,498
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           52,841
such as national parks, water protection                       As well as population growth – natural and   by the early 2030s based on their current       60,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             47,972
areas and topography present in the                            from in-migration – increasing housing       specification (Figure 1.9). There would also

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                42,976
                                                                                                                                                            50,000
area affect the location of growth in the                      demand arises from the needs of an           be additional provision on smaller sites

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   36,825
                                                                                                                                                            40,000
Solent area (Figure 1.8). Current and future                   ageing population and decreasing             across the Solent area.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               30,340
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30,675

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            30,387
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        30,198

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     30,245

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  30,292
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           29,414
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              28,630
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 26,961
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    24,999
urban growth is therefore concentrated

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         23,524
                                                               household size.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       22,974
                                                                                                                                                            30,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         20,858
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            18,685
on a corridor between Portsmouth and

                                                                                                                                                                                                            16,719
                                                                                                            To support economic performance in

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               16,011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  13,337
                                                                                                                                                            20,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                10,018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     10,228
Southampton and in towns on the Isle                                                                        the longer term, transport and land use

                                                                                                                                                                                                         7,269
                                                                                                                                                                                    4,903

of Wight.                                                                                                   planning needs to reflect this potential        10,000                          4,356
                                                                                                                                                                                  2,132
                                                                                                                                                                         1,913
                                                                                                                                                                         832

                                                                                                            growth and consider the effects on
                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                                                                                            the existing transport network.
                                                                                                                                                                          2016

                                                                                                                                                                                    2017

                                                                                                                                                                                              2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                           2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2022

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2023

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2025

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2026

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2027

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2028

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2029

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2030

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2031

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2032

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2033
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2024

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2034
                                                                                                                                                           Source: Hampshire CC, Southampton CC, Eastleigh BC, PUSH, Solent Transport, AECOM analysis.
                                                                                                                                                           Excludes small infill sites and the current PUSH Spatial Strategy Review is identifying further strategic locations.
  12                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 13
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP
02
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN            A GROWING ECONOMY                                                                                                 SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                    TRANSPORT CHANGES

        THE SOLENT REQUIRES                                                                    TRANSPORT CHANGES
            AN EFFICIENT AND                                                                   Ensuring the performance of the Solent’s transport

          WELL-FUNCTIONING
                                                                                               system and tackling current challenges is central to
                                                                                               improving efficiency, to expanding and integrating

         MODERN TRANSPORT
                                                                                               labour and consumer markets and to supporting
                                                                                               national supply chains.

                    NETWORK                                                                                                                                                                          • the M3 at Eastleigh : this is congested
                                                                                                                                                                                                       due to a mix of longer freight and short
                                                                                                                                                                                                       distance movements allied to junctions
                                                                                                                                                                                                       that are closely spaced.

                                                                                                                                                                                                     • Congestion at M27 J3 although
                                                                                                                                                                                                       improvements completed in August
                                                                                                                                                                                                       2015 should reduce congestion.

                                                                                                                                                                                                     • Delays and road safety concerns
                                                                                                                                                                                                       around the M271/M27 junction.

SUMMARY                                                                                                                                                                                              • Capacity required between the recently
                                                                                                                                                                                                       improved J5 and the airport and its
The Solent has a clear potential for future     Transport is an essential enabler of
                                                                                                                                                                                                       environs.
and long term economic and productivity         economic dynamism. Successful
growth, with a strong asset base upon           transport networks support businesses                                                                                                                • Capacity issues along the M27,
which to build. However, transport              by facilitating the development of                                                                                                                     particularly between J4 (M3) and J8
                                                                                               Image: Solent Local Growth Deal Site - St Margaret’s Roundabout
infrastructure is a comparative weakness        agglomeration economies, connecting                                                                                                                    (Netley), J9 (Whiteley) at J10 (Fareham
and already a constraint for the area.          supply chains, broadening labour markets       The current transport network and its                     However the performance of the network        North), and at the A27/A2030 junction
Given transport’s role as a fundamental         and improving productivity for both goods      operational performance are central to                    is weak. Average vehicle speeds are           which impacts on local traffic and freight
component of area based economic                and labour.                                    the Solent’s economy and its comparative                  32% lower than the national average3.         movements.
success, the Solent cannot afford to be                                                        productivity. The current challenges                      The Solent experiences significantly
                                                                                                                                                                                                     • Capacity constrains along the southern
complacent in the delivery of a transport       The Solent requires an efficient and well-     for each major transport mode are                         lower morning peak-time vehicle
                                                                                                                                                                                                       section of the M275.
infrastructure network fit for an economy       functioning modern transport network           considered below.                                         speeds, particularly in Portsmouth and
of its size and potential.                      that is integrated with an attractive urban                                                              Southampton.                                Over the next 30 years forecasts made
                                                realm and encourages a range of modal                                                                                                                by Transport for Southern Hampshire
A competitive transport network is              uses. This will be essential for creating an
                                                                                               ROADS AND MOTORWAYS
                                                                                                                                                         There are currently a number of points      (TfSH)4 show increasing congestion at
required in the Solent to ensure that it can    environment that is attractive to the high-    The road network is critical for both the                 of stress on the motorway network which     the key pinch points on the strategic road
remain internationally competitive in an        skilled labour and high-value industries       national and the local economy.                           impact on the economic performance          network and on the key approaches to
increasingly globalised economy. Providing      over which regions compete globally                                                                      of the area. These are:                     the city centres5.
effective connections between people and        to attract and which underpin an area’s        The Solent’s motorways and principal
                                                                                                                                                         • the M3 J9/A34 : this is a critical node
businesses, their homes and jobs, as well       enduring economic strengths.                   road routes (M27/M271/M275/A27,
                                                                                                                                                           connecting Solent (especially freight)
as wider social infrastructure, is the only                                                    M3/A34, A3) are key links for freight
                                                                                                                                                           to production centres and markets
way that Solent will be able to fully support                                                  movements between the south coast
                                                                                                                                                           in the north and the midlands but a
and achieve its economic potential.                                                            ports, production centres and consumer
                                                                                                                                                           major bottleneck.
                                                                                               markets further north as well as providing
                                                                                               road connections to London.

                                                                                                                                                                                                     3 LEP Network (2012) - Creating Successful Local Economies.
                                                                                                                                                                                                     4 Transport for Southampton Hampshire (TfSH) is now named
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Solent Transport.
                                                                                                                                                                                                     5 Transport Delivery Plan, Transport for South Hampshire (2013).

 14                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               15
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN         TRANSPORT CHANGES                                                                     SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                   TRANSPORT CHANGES

                                                                       RAIL

AVERAGE VEHICLE SPEEDS ARE 32%
                                                                       The Solent has a rail network which covers
                                                                       much of the current developed area

LOWER THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE                                        though there are some key exceptions.

                                                                       In terms of connectivity, rail journey times
                                                                       from Portsmouth to Waterloo are between
                                                                       96 and 109 minutes (via Guildford; 3 trains
Figure 2.1 Strategic road network opportunities and constraints        per hour), 129 minutes (via Winchester,
                                                                       1 tph off peak) and around 118 - 128
                                                                       minutes to London Victoria (1 tph).
                                                                       Southampton to Waterloo is between 80
                                                                       and 100 minutes (3 tph) and services to
                                                                       London Paddington between 88 and 95
                                                                       minutes with an interchange at Reading
                                                                       (2tph). There are a number of specific
                                                                       factors affecting the Solent’s relative
                                                                       access to London and the wider south
                                                                       east economy identified in consultation
                                                                                                                       Image: Eastleigh Railway Station
                                                                       and from stakeholders:

                                                                       • There are relatively poor journey times       • There are good regional connections        • Future of the Island Line needs to be
                                                                         from the Solent to London due to track          from the area but journey times are slow     urgently considered in the context of life
                                                                         congestion, capacity constraints at             compared to similar cities and economic      expired rolling stock and infrastructure.6
                                                                         Waterloo and Clapham Junction and               gateways in the UK.
                                                                                                                                                                    • Rail access to Gosport - One of the
                                                                         comparatively slow line speeds.
                                                                                                                       • Rail freight plays a major role to and       largest towns in the UK not to be served
                                                                       • There is no direct rail connection              from Southampton but existing and            by rail.
                                                                         between Southampton airport and                 increased mode share is dependent on
                                                                         Portsmouth and eastwards along the              Strategic infrastructure schemes such
                                                                         South Coast.                                    as the “Electric Spine”.

                                                                       • Business regards the journey time             • There is no passenger rail access to
                                                                         between the two main cities as slow:            Southampton Waterfront area, which is
                                                                         the best journey time (1 tph) is 45             expected to see significant growth.
                                                                         minutes, the other two hourly services
                                                                                                                       • There is limited interchange in
                                                                         take 60 minutes (one requiring a
                                                                                                                         Southampton between existing and
                                                                         change) for a 20 mile journey. This is
                                                                                                                         relocated Isle of Wight ferry terminals
                                                                         in part due to the number of stations
                                                                                                                         to the wider Solent area by Public
                                                                         served on the Netley Line.
                                                                                                                         transport.
Source: Solent LEP / AECOM.                                            • The utilisation of the current rail network
                                                                                                                       • There is poor public transport access to
                                                                         is high on a number of rail routes across
                                                                                                                         Southampton Cruise terminals and the
                                                                         the Solent area.
                                                                                                                         Port from wider Solent and the airport.

                                                                                                                                                                    6 The Island Line forms part of the South Western Franchise, but
                                                                                                                                                                    operates under a separate Lease Agreement with Network Rail
                                                                                                                                                                    rather than an Access Agreement. Responsibility for infrastructure
                                                                                                                                                                    maintenance and renewals is shared between the operator and
                                                                                                                                                                    Network Rail under this lease, which is due to expire in 2019. In
                                                                                                                                                                    approaching the re-letting of the South Western franchise, a key
                                                                                                                                                                    objective of the Rail Executive is to secure an appropriate, financially
                                                                                                                                                                    sustainable long term future for the Island Line.

 16                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  17
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN - May 2016 - Solent LEP
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN          TRANSPORT CHANGES                                                                SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN             TRANSPORT CHANGES

RAIL JOURNEY TIMES FROM
PORTSMOUTH TO WATERLOO ARE
BETWEEN 96 AND 109 MINUTES

Figure 2.2 Strategic rail network opportunities and constraints

                                                                        Image: Southampton                                                                            Image: Portsmouth

                                                                        PORTS AND FERRIES
                                                                        The Port of Southampton is the UK’s           The Port of Portsmouth is one of the UK’s       • Better integration of modes between
                                                                        second largest container terminal Europe’s    leading Ro-Ro ports and is home to the            ferries and other public transport offer
                                                                        and the most efficient container port in      Royal Navy, including a major naval base          potential and will have an impact on the
                                                                        Europe. It is the UK’s busiest cruise port,   which lies ar the heart of the sub-regional       economies of Southampton and the
                                                                        and the UK’s primary automotive export        defence cluster (with the new QE class            Isle of Wight as well as supporting the
                                                                        hub, providing a critical gateway for our     aircraft carriers arriving in 2017) and a hub     increased use of public transport.
                                                                        resurgent automotive manufacturing            for refrigerated ships.
                                                                                                                                                                      • Greater access options to the cruise
                                                                        industry. From the Port of Southampton
                                                                                                                                                                        line terminals and links to airport would
                                                                        about 65% of containers are moved             Six passenger services and three car
                                                                                                                                                                        improve the offer and reinforce the role
                                                                        onwards by road and 35% by rail with          ferry services provide vital connections
                                                                                                                                                                        of Southampton as the leading cruise
                                                                        over 22 freight trains a day to key inland    to the Isle of Wight from the mainland
                                                                                                                                                                        terminal.
                                                                        destinations. Direct motorway access          Solent area.
                                                                        (M271, M27, A33 and northwards via                                                            • The Port of Portsmouth suffers from
                                                                        M3, A34) accommodates the road freight        Consultation with stakeholders and                no direct connection to the national
                                                                        movements. However cruise passengers          businesses identified the following               rail network.
                                                                        mainly reach the terminal by car and the      opportunities and challenges:
                                                                        port’s growth is constrained by limited
                                                                                                                      • The continued growth and expansion of
                                                                        expansion space and road capacity.
                                                                                                                        the port of Southampton is dependent
                                                                                                                        on the capacity and availability of road
                                                                                                                        and rail space and effective connections
                                                                                                                        to the strategic networks (e.g. freight
                                                                                                                        northwards).
Source: Solent LEP / AECOM.

 18                                                                                                                                                                                                            19
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN       TRANSPORT CHANGES                                               SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN             TRANSPORT CHANGES

SIX PASSENGER SERVICES AND THREE
CAR FERRY SERVICES PROVIDE VITAL
CONNECTIONS TO THE ISLE OF WIGHT
FROM THE MAINLAND SOLENT AREA.
Figure 2.3 Ports opportunities and constraints

                                                                     Image: Southampton Airport

                                                                                                  AIRPORT
                                                                                                  With eight airlines, Southampton Airport         • The airport runway length is shorter than
                                                                                                  serves up to 49 short haul UK and                  many other regional airports limiting
                                                                                                  European destinations for business                 the range of aircraft that the airport can
                                                                                                  and leisure travellers (e.g. Glasgow,              handle.
                                                                                                  Manchester, Amsterdam, Jersey and
                                                                                                                                                   • Despite quick and direct rail connections
                                                                                                  Mallorca). About 1.4 million people live
                                                                                                                                                     to Southampton Central (7 min) and
                                                                                                  within 30 minutes of the airport and 3.5
                                                                                                                                                     Winchester (10 min), there is no direct
                                                                                                  million within an hour. The airport has
                                                                                                                                                     rail connection between the airport and
                                                                                                  one of the closest rail stations to a terminal
                                                                                                                                                     Portsmouth (the journey time is 60-80
                                                                                                  in the UK and is adjacent to the M27 so
                                                                                                                                                     minutes for a journey of 20 miles) and
                                                                                                  is increasingly used as a rail park and ride.
                                                                                                                                                     eastwards along the South Coast (apart
                                                                                                  Yet a number of transport constraints
                                                                                                                                                     from one train a day to Brighton).
Source: Solent LEP / AECOM.                                                                       affect the economic performance of
                                                                                                  this asset:                                      • Locally the road network around the
                                                                                                                                                     airport and surrounding development
                                                                                                                                                     sites (including a major development
                                                                                                                                                     opportunity at the former Ford
                                                                                                                                                     manufacturing site) is comparatively
                                                                                                                                                     constrained with a number of narrow
                                                                                                                                                     and/or old bridges.

 20                                                                                                                                                                                        21
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN TRANSPORT CHANGES                                                    SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                          TRANSPORT CHANGES

SOUTHAMPTON AIRPORT SERVES UP
TO 49 SHORT HAUL UK AND EUROPEAN
DESTINATIONS
Figure 2.4 Southampton airport opportunities and constraints

                                                               Image: Wightlink Ferry
                                                               Credit: Portsmouth City Council

                                                                                                 ISLE OF WIGHT
                                                                                                 The connection between the Isle of              Within the Isle of Wight there are a number
                                                                                                 Wight and the mainland is based on six          transport issues affecting its economic
                                                                                                 passenger and three car ferry services          performance:
                                                                                                 from Lymington to Yarmouth (Wightlink),
                                                                                                 from Southampton to East and West               • Improving cross Solent connections
                                                                                                 Cowes (Red Funnel, Red Jet), from                 through better interchanges on both
                                                                                                 Portsmouth to Fishbourne (Wightlink),             sides.
                                                                                                 Ryde (Fast Cat) and from Southsea to
                                                                                                                                                 • The floating bridge in East Cowes is
                                                                                                 Ryde (Hovertravel).
                                                                                                                                                   scheduled to be replaced, avoiding
                                                                                                                                                   forecast increased journey times.
                                                                                                 Vehicle traffic predominantly emanates
                                                                                                 from the mainland and comprises mostly          • Significant traffic congestion in and
                                                                                                 tourists, thus demand for car ferries is very     around Newport at peak times.
                                                                                                 seasonal and peaks in the summer when
                                                                                                                                                 • The operational future and viability of the
                                                                                                 the island’s population almost doubles.
                                                                                                                                                   Island Line rail service6.

Source: Solent LEP / AECOM.                                                                                                                      • In addition, local traffic issues and
                                                                                                                                                   support for active modes schemes form
                                                                                                                                                   a key part of local transport initiatives.

                                                                                                                                                 6 The Island Line forms part of the South Western Franchise, but
                                                                                                                                                 operates under a separate Lease Agreement with Network Rail
                                                                                                                                                 rather than an Access Agreement. Responsibility for infrastructure
                                                                                                                                                 maintenance and renewals is shared between the operator and
                                                                                                                                                 Network Rail under this lease, which is due to expire in 2019. In
                                                                                                                                                 approaching the re-letting of the South Western franchise, a key
                                                                                                                                                 objective of the Rail Executive is to secure an appropriate, financially
                                                                                                                                                 sustainable long term future for the Island Line.

 22                                                                                                                                                                                                               23
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN TRANSPORT CHANGES                                                              SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                 TRANSPORT CHANGES

Figure 2.5 Isle of Wight opportunities and constraints         CURRENT MOVEMENT
                                                               PATTERNS
                                                               Evidence from the 2001 and 2011 Census
                                                                                                                SELF-CONTAINMENT
                                                                                                                      HAS FALLEN IN
                                                               suggests that there are high levels of
                                                               movement between the Solent districts

                                                                                                                PORTSMOUTH FROM
                                                               for work and other journey purposes,
                                                               which give rise to significant volumes
                                                               of intra-Solent trips, contributing to
                                                               traffic issues on the local and strategic
                                                               networks. In 2011, 86% of people residing            73% TO 65% AND
                                                               in one of the Solent’s twelve constituent
                                                               districts also had their workplace in one           FROM 66% TO 56%
                                                                                                                  IN SOUTHAMPTON.
                                                               of these districts, showing a high level of
                                                               employment self- containment within the
                                                               Solent area.

                                                               Between 2001 and 2011 the degree of
                                                               self-containment (“live and work in the
                                                               same place”) has fallen in Portsmouth
                                                               from 73% to 65% and from 66% to
                                                               56% in Southampton. This decline in
                                                               self-containment in the main cities, which
                                                               is most likely related to housing market
                                                               differentials and the location of new
                                                               employment opportunities, suggests
                                                               that the transport network will need to
                                                               accommodate more inter-node journeys
                                                               in the future

                                                               Other areas of the Solent LEP feature
Source: Solent LEP / AECOM.                                    relatively low levels of self-containment
                                                               such as Fareham (36%), Eastleigh (37%),
Figure 2.6 Travel to work movements in the Solent in 2011      Gosport (39%) or Havant (42%) which are
                                                               net exporters in 2011, supplying workers
                                                               to main towns and cities across the Solent
                                                               area. Unsurprisingly, Fareham, Gosport        Image: Solent Local Growth Deal Site – Station Quarter in Southampton

                                                               and Havant are supporting Portsmouth’s
                                                               job market with respectively 17%, 18%
                                                               and 24% of their residents working
                                                               in Portsmouth; Eastleigh is feeding
                                                               Southampton’s job market with 20%
                                                               of its residents working in Southampton.

Source: Solent LEP / AECOM.

 24                                                                                                                                                                                                25
03
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN TRANSPORT CHANGES                                     SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN         COMPARATIVE BENCHMARKING

SUMMARY
                                                               COMPARATIVE
                                                               BENCHMARKING
There is a range of challenges affecting
most modes of transport in the Solent
area which is unsurprising for a growing
area. While the challenges affect the
current performance of key economic
strengths there are opportunities to
                                                               Despite being a fast growing economy Solent LEP
ensure these modes can further support                         has a transport infrastructure deficit compared to
the Solent to fulfil its long term economic                    many other city regions in the UK.
potential.

The growing number of journeys by                                                          “DUAL CITY” BENCHMARKING
car and reduction in comparative self-
                                                                                           An economic-led vision for transport must    • Recent population and employment
containment is contributing to the current
                                                                                           consider the potential to improve the          growth
congestion levels and poor accessibility
                                                                                           performance of the two main cities in the
for business in the area. The growth of                                                                                                 • Growth occurring within city boundaries
                                                                                           Solent area at the same time as enhancing
both housing and employment will be
                                                                                           their local regional connections to reduce   • Commuting patterns and mode of
constrained unless better integrated
                                                                                           barriers to trade, widen labour markets        transport used
alternatives to car travel exist for both
                                                                                           and secure agglomeration benefits.
short and Solent wide journeys. These                                                                                                   • Quantity of transport infrastructure
challenges will require a strategic transport                                                                                             provision by population
                                                                                           To examine comparative performance,
approach that takes account of both local
                                                                                           the Solent area was benchmarked              • Relative accessibility to London
and longer distance transport investments.
                                                                                           against other “dual city” areas in the UK
                                                                                                                                        • Local port and airport functions
                                                                                           where two major cities were roughly an
                                                                                           hour apart in journey times. Indicators      The other comparator “dual city” areas
                                                                                           assessed included:                           were Manchester & Liverpool, Sunderland
                                                                                                                                        & Newcastle, Leeds & Sheffield, Derby &
                                                                                                                                        Nottingham, Edinburgh & Glasgow and
                                                                                                                                        Swansea & Cardiff. All detailed tables of
                                                                                                                                        results are available in Appendix B.

Image: Railway Station
 26                                                                                                                                                                              27
SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN              COMPARATIVE BENCHMARKING                                                                                                                      SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN      COMPARATIVE BENCHMARKING

“DUAL CITY”                                                                                                                                        Figure 3.2 Comparative accessibility to London by road and rail (AECOM analysis)
BENCHMARKING RESULTS
                                                                                                                                                                                                   SOLENT         MANCHESTER          SUNDERLAND     LEEDS &       DERBY &
Population growth and economic                    There is a trend of living in Portsmouth          Despite being a similar distance apart
                                                                                                                                                                                                    AREA          & LIVERPOOL         & NEWCASTLE   SHEFFIELD    NOTTINGHAM
dynamism in the Solent exceeds the UK             and Southampton but commuting to jobs             the labour market integration between
benchmarks. With a population of 1.6              in the Solent area. The two main cities in        Sunderland and Newcastle is much
                                                                                                                                                       Average minutes to London by rail               88                138                 78        135            90
million, the Portsmouth-Southampton               the Solent area are less self-contained           higher than between Southampton and
dual area is larger than that of Swansea          than some other benchmarks. A relatively          Portsmouth. For the former the reciprocal
& Cardiff and could approach the scale            high proportion of residents (10%) live           labour market flows total around 12,000            Average speed to London by rail (MPH)           53                87                  24         82            79
of Sunderland & Newcastle and Derby               within the two “main cities” but travel to        people. In comparison the labour market
& Nottingham over the next 20 to 30               work outside of them. The average for             flows between the Solent cities are just
years. Both population and employment             the other benchmarks was 6%.                      3,100 (75% lower) showing the potential            Average minutes to London by road (mi)          78                217                271        177           125

are growing more rapidly than in all other                                                          for market integration benefits.
benchmark areas. Per capita housing               The Solent area has a low public transport
                                                                                                                                                       Average minutes to London by road              105               210                 275        195           140
completions are double many other areas.          mode share and less well developed                Bus use, tram, metro and road provision
                                                  public transport system than benchmarks.          all lag comparators indicating a significant
The Solent appears to be an emerging              Two thirds of residents travel to work by         all-mode transport infrastructure deficit.         Average speed to London by road (MPH)           45                62                  59         54            54
polycentric area with much population             car in the Solent area, in line with other        Both public transport and road provision
and jobs growth occurring outside                 benchmarks, and the average commute               seem to lag UK benchmarks. There are
Portsmouth and Southampton, with 40%              distance of 10 miles is also broadly              significantly lower bus journeys per person
of residents working in a different district      comparable. Total commuter travel is              per annum – about half the average of          In terms of distance the Solent area         The Solent area has a large amount of
to where they live. The recent population         nearly at the level of Sunderland                 comparators. There is no local tram or         is closer to London than most of the         port traffic relative to its size and forecast
growth accommodated within the two                & Newcastle and Derby & Nottingham                metro network in the Solent and there are      comparators, but suffers from lower          growth is likely to contribute to further
main cities has been lower than other             which have metro or tram systems. At              significantly fewer miles of motorway and      average speeds by both rail and road. This   congestion due to under-provision of
benchmarks. The Solent’s two main cities          just 8%, use of public transport to get           A-road per person.                             makes it relatively disadvantaged in terms   roads and capacity at peak times. Solent
have accommodated smaller proportions             to work is below the average of the other                                                        of being able to access markets, supply      has relatively few airport passengers for its
of recent employment growth than other            benchmarks (13%). A relatively higher             Furthermore, population density is the         chains and skills within the capital.        size (per capita basis) due to its proximity
benchmarks.                                       proportion of people in the Solent work           most important indicator of potential                                                       to other airports within the London system
                                                  from home, cycle or walk to work.                 public transport use. At 5,141 people per      The Solent has a strategic port function     and poor connectivity from the east
                                                                                                    square kilometre, Portsmouth has the           of national importance and potential for
                                                                                                    highest UK population density outside of       airport expansion.
                                                                                                    London. Southampton is not far behind
                                                                                                    at 4,858 people per square kilometre. This
                                                                                                    indicates significant potential for public
                                                                                                    transport take-up.
Figure 3.1 Comparative use and provision of transport infrastructure
(AECOM analysis)

                                                                  MANCHESTER &       SUNDERLAND &              LEEDS &            DERBY &
                                                  SOLENT AREA
                                                                   LIVERPOOL          NEWCASTLE               SHEFFIELD         NOTTINGHAM

      Annual bus journeys per resident                 45                80                    78                 144                 58

      Miles of tram / metro network per million
                                                       0                 31                    24                  6                  9
      people

      Miles of motorway per million people             26               31.6               15.4                   45.8                0.1

      Miles of A road per million people              14.3              49.4              112.9                    65                16.1

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SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN            COMPARATIVE BENCHMARKING                                                                                                                SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN           TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PACKAGES

EUROPEAN CASE STUDIES                                                                                                                         TRANSPORT
European case studies for regions of around 2 million people demonstrate what                                                                 INVESTMENT
is possible with a long term strategic vision based around consistent transport
investments for modal integration and city to city links                                                                                      PACKAGES
Figure 3.1 Randstad Rail plan                   Figure 3.2 The Oresund rail and road bridge
                                                                                                                                              Local business and stakeholders implementing 25 year
                                                                                                                                              strategic transport investments will support the long
                                                                                                                                              term economic growth of the Solent area.

                                                                                                                                              A FOCUS ON INCREASING                           Figure 4.1 Strategy of Economic Proximity
                                                                                                                                              ECONOMIC PROXIMITY
                                                                                                                                              High value businesses derive benefits from
                                                                                                                                              being located in close proximity to each
                                                                                                                                              other, their suppliers and their workers.
                                                                                                                                              With 37% of all high skilled employment
                                                                                                                                              in Portsmouth and Southampton, the two
                                                                                                                                              cities are well placed to drive growth in the
RANDSTADRAIL                                    ORESUND                                       SUMMARY                                         private knowledge-intensive industries that
In a city-region of 2.3 million residents       Connecting Copenhagen (population 1.3         While the growing Solent area is                link to the local competitive advantages
RandstadRail strategically connects             million) with Malmo (population 700,000)      comparatively dense in terms of                 and their spatial clusters.
The Hague with Rotterdam in about 30            the Oresund is the largest road and rail      urbanisation and has an emerging
minutes with up to 12 trains per hour.          bridge in Europe that opened in 2000 at       polycentric distribution of housing and         We have concluded that in the long term
There are effective interconnections with       a cost of €3.5 bn. Journey time from city     growth, it has an all modes transport           the Solent LEP’s business-led transport
metro, bus and tram in both Rotterdam           centre to city centre is just 35 minutes      infrastructure deficit, especially for public   strategy should aim to “increase economic
and the Hague. With Phase 1 opening             with up to six trains per hour. Tolled for    transport, lagging behind other UK              proximity“ across five spatial areas and
in 2007 and Phase 2 in 2008, additional         road traffic will pay for the capital costs   comparator areas. The area also suffers         along six external strategic corridors. This
bridge and tunnel sections were required        by 2037. The trains act as a commuter         from relatively slow access to London,          strategy (see Figure 4.1) involves a number
as well as a change in the rail franchise.      service on the Danish side with stops         which erodes its locational advantage.          of elements:
Since 1850 the development of the               every 4km and as a regional service
                                                                                                                                              • Increase dual city linkages around            Source: AECOM.
Randstad railway and station locations          in Sweden serving 33 cities including         Taken in the round, this suggests that
                                                                                                                                                public transport and business critical
initially followed urbanisation patterns but    Goteborg. It is estimated that the bridge     there is significant room for enhancing the
                                                                                                                                                movements to integrate labour and
then became a planning tool for locating        brings €740 million of labour market          Solent’s transport network to support long                                                      • Optimise and integrate the transport        • A greater focus on Transport Orientated
                                                                                                                                                consumer markets.
and concentrating new development.              integration benefits each year and has        term economic and productivity growth.                                                            network (ticketing, information and           Developments (TODs). Increase
                                                helped to “internationalise” Malmo.           For example, for inter-city labour market       • Support clustering and agglomeration            operation) using next generation              residential densities around new
For the Solent area, which has similar          Commuting levels have increased by a          integration this could generate an increase       around key local strengths and                  solutions so travel demand load can be        and underutilised transport nodes
topographic issues, the scheme shows            factor of seven since opening to reach        by a factor of between 4 and 7 compared           competitive advantages that other areas         spread to improve resilience and peak         to accommodate additional housing
the potential to link different modes, use      18,000. The easy access to Kastrup            to UK and European examples.                      cannot replicate (e.g. port functions).         capacity accommodated especially              development while protecting natural
existing track networks and localise the rail   airport has supported new start-up firms                                                                                                        in more constrained cities with pinch         assets and addressing affordability with
                                                                                                                                              • Develop a corridor of development
franchise operator in the long term.            in Malmo.                                                                                                                                       points.                                       the same land take.
                                                                                                                                                nodes based around an improved
                                                                                                                                                public transport offering between the         • Secure improved strategic connections
                                                For the Solent area the Oresund shows
                                                                                                                                                cities and across the urban network to          to London, the south east (airport
                                                the benefits of a dedicated multi-modal
                                                                                                                                                2040 including easy access to stations          passenger market), the UK (especially
                                                link between major cities and the ability
                                                                                                                                                by walking and cycling (active modes).          for port freight) and internationally for
                                                to use the service for different functions
                                                                                                                                                                                                airport leisure and business market and
                                                (commuting, regional).
                                                                                                                                                                                                “European” inward investment.
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SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                                    TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PACKAGES                                                                                                                SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN      TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PACKAGES

TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PACKAGES                                                                                                                                            ALIGNMENT

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                300,000 TO 400,000
The Solent Strategic Transport                                          Our approach has been to pragmatically          • In relation to governance and in the           As an economically-led strategic transport
Investment Plan focuses on the more                                     build upon known investments and                  context of devolution, a new single            investment plan, the six elements of

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           RESIDENTS COULD MAKE
economically transformative and longer                                  directions of travel while seeking to             policy and delivery body should be             the economic proximity strategy are
term investments8 necessary to support                                  maximise the performance of existing              created to determine, manage and               aligned with the packages of transport

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           THE SOLENT AN AREA OF
and unlock the Solent’s growth potential                                infrastructure. The investments have been         deliver transport plans and the delivery       investments to be implemented in the
over the next 30 to 40 years. Over this                                 split as follows and offer the opportunity        of public transport networks for the           short and longer term. These projects
timescale an additional 300,000 to
400,000 residents could make the Solent
an area of 2 million people – equivalent to
                                                                        to be supported by an evolution of the
                                                                        local governance and delivery function
                                                                        drawing from the emerging local
                                                                                                                          area. This should be based on any
                                                                                                                          devolution agreement agreed for the
                                                                                                                          area.
                                                                                                                                                                         combined would assist the continued
                                                                                                                                                                         growth of Solent economy over the next
                                                                                                                                                                         30 years.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2 MILLION PEOPLE
dual cities such as Nottingham/Derby and                                devolution agenda:
                                                                                                                        Where applicable, schemes identified,
Newcastle/Sunderland.                                                                                                                                                    We have looked at the strategic alignment        These packages are detailed in Appendix
                                                                        • A Solent Transit package which is the         developed or promoted by the
                                                                                                                                                                         of these packages against the six key            A which identifies schemes which are
                                                                          main recommendation and a proposed            stakeholders and transport authorities
From a review of the existing evidence                                                                                                                                   indicators identified above. Whilst all have     completed, committed/funded and those
                                                                          step change in the development of a           and providers have been reviewed and
base (Appendix C) that has assessed and                                                                                                                                  addressed at least two of the economic           which are suggested proposals for future
                                                                          more extensive and integrated public          included as part of the modal packages.
modelled local issues and proposed a                                                                                                                                     proximity indicators, investment in a transit    investment rounds.
                                                                          transport system (including active            In some cases strategic opportunities
range of potential schemes for the Solent                                                                                                                                network for the Solent area, composed of
                                                                          modes) across the area to preserve            have been identified to be developed
area, we have brought together some of                                                                                                                                   different public transport modes, is likely
                                                                          the attractiveness of the area for skilled    further by stakeholders in conjunction
these proposals and other suggestions                                                                                                                                    to have the greatest impact on supporting
                                                                          workers and growing firms.                    with the LEP, where they could have
from the stakeholder consultation7 into                                                                                                                                  the economy (Table 4.1).
                                                                                                                        a potential transformative effect in
initial packages of transformational and                                • A roads package to ensure the best
                                                                                                                        connecting new and existing communities
strategic investments that have the                                       performance of the M27, A34 and
                                                                                                                        to jobs and opportunities within the key
potential to transform the Solent economy.                                other strategic roads acknowledging                                                            Figure 4.1 Strategic alignment of investment packages
                                                                                                                        corridors identified for growth. In particular
Together these investments can support                                    that additional road capacity is rapidly
                                                                                                                        the potential to create a local rail based
the long term vision of increasing                                        taken up. The focus is on securing the
                                                                                                                        Solent Transit network.                                                                                                                                             PROVIDING
economic proximity.                                                       committed or funded schemes while                                                                                                                                PROMOTING
                                                                                                                                                                                                         PROMOTING        FACILITATING                      INTEGRATING      IMPROVING       TRANSIT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          SUSTAINABLE
                                                                          proposing additional schemes for future                                                                                         DUAL CITY      CLUSTERING OF                     THE TRANSPORT     STRATEGIC     ORIENTATED
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          DEVELOPMENT
                                                                                                                                                                                                          LINKAGES        EMPLOYMENT                          NETWORK       CONNECTIONS   DEVELOPMENT
The investments are split into an initial                                 Highways England investment phases.                                                                                                                                NODES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (TOD)
Phase 1 covering five years to 2020
                                                                        • A strategic rail package to improve                                                             Strategic Highway
(short term) and then 20 years over                                                                                                                                       Package (Inc. Ports
                                                                          connections for passengers and                                                                                                                     44                                                44
Phase 2 (medium term) to give a 25                                                                                                                                        surface access, local
                                                                          freight to London, the south east                                                               and strategic roads)
year plan to 2040 to align with normal
                                                                          and nationally working with Network
planning timescales.                                                                                                                                                      Strategic Railway
                                                                          Rail, Train Operating Companies and                                                                                                4                4                44               44            444             44
                                                                                                                                                                          Package
                                                                          other partners. Refranchising gives
                                                                          the opportunity to improve local                                                                Solent Transit (Inc. Rail
                                                                          service provision.                                                                              and Bus Rapid Transit             44               44               444               44            444            444
                                                                                                                                                                          and Fast Ferry Service)
                                                                        • A range of investments to support                                                               Airport Surface Access
                                                                          the airport’s growth potential including                                                        (Inter-city rail and airport       4               44                                 44             44
                                                                          adjacent development sites.                                                                     access)

                                                                                                                                                                         Source: AECOM/Solent LEP
                                                                        • A package to improve access to the
                                                                          nationally strategic port services for both
                                                                          freight and passengers.

7 See Appendix D for list of consultees.

8 The investments draw on the LEPs existing evidence base
including earlier work considering the potential for transformational
transport investments in the Solent LEP Area (Atkins 2014). This is
supplemented by additional consultation
and research completed by AECOM.

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SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PACKAGES                                                                                                        SOLENT STRATEGIC TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PLAN                  TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PACKAGES

STRATEGIC HIGHWAY
SCHEMES
The Gateway economy of the Solent is
highly dependent on its road connectivity.
The two ports and airport in particular
can be affected by unreliability and
delays in the network. Furthermore the
attractiveness of the area for business,
manufacturing and service related
industries will be adversely impacted by
accessibility concerns. Discussions with
businesses have highlighted traffic delays
on the strategic highway network as a key
in their locational decision-making.

The strategic highway network,
comprising sections of the M3, M27 and
                                                  Image: Portsmouth Park & Ride                                                                Image: M27
the urban motorways of the M271 and               Credit: Portsmouth City Council
M275 are the arteries of the LEP area.
Competing demands on the capacity from            • M3 at Winchester (Junctions 9-12):           • M27 West (Junctions 2-4): The M27           • Development of the Managed Motorway           the M275 at Tipner will also assist in           well as looking at re-routing and access
local, long distance and gateway related            The M3 to the east of Winchester               and its connection with the M3 suffer         or Smart Motorway concept would help          accommodating growth and delivering              arrangements for cruise liner traffic.
users make sections of the network highly           is influenced by the operation of              the same issues as the M3 Junction            to manage the impacts of interactions         mode shift for trips to the city centre,         Clearly development proposals connected
congested. Growth of jobs and housing               Junction 9. Reconfiguration of these           13/14. Although major works have              of traffic flows and better meet the          whilst a new link road has provided a new        with the relocation of the ferry terminal
in the future has the potential to further          junctions could help prevent queueing          been completed to improve capacity on         needs of strategic traffic using the route.   access to the Naval Base is assisting in         and associated development will offer
increase congestion. Lack of competitive            traffic impacting the motorway and in          the M27 between Junctions 4 and 3,            However an integrated approach for            the mitigation of the effects of this traffic.   challenges to access by all modes and
journey times by public transport are a             combination with the Junction 9 works          development of the Managed Motorway           a future strategy for the M27 corridor                                                         these will need to be addressed. It will
key factor meaning that even short hop              above alleviate this pinch point in the        / Smart Motorway concept for this             should focus on the importance of the                                                          be imperative that reliable road access
journeys are made on the strategic roads.
                                                                                                                                                                                               STRATEGIC ACCESS TO
                                                    network.                                       section of the motorway would help to         more strategic movements connecting                                                            to the port of Southampton is a primary
                                                                                                                                                                                               SOUTHAMPTON
                                                                                                   optimise future traffic flows and help to     Portsmouth to Southampton and the                                                              consideration, given its economic impact
                                                  • M3 at Eastleigh (Junctions 12-14):
                                                                                                                                                                                               The A33 forms the main strategic access
STRATEGIC JUNCTION                                  The M3 around Eastleigh is influenced
                                                                                                   alleviate the effects of congestion.          M3 whilst working in tandem with                                                               and value chain.
                                                                                                                                                                                               route into the city of Southampton and
AND HIGHWAY                                         by multiple users making journeys            • M27 East (Junctions 4-12) and A27 to
                                                                                                                                                 InterCity and local rail improvements
                                                                                                                                                                                               caters for a mix of traffic generated
IMPROVEMENTS                                        between the Ports of Southampton               A3(M) Interchange: This whole section
                                                                                                                                                 that will help to offer choice and shift                                                       Following Government advice9 on the
                                                                                                                                                 short-hop journeys to more sustainable        by both the city centre and the port.            importance of port access, these road
The following junctions and stretches of            and Portsmouth and the north, by               of the motorway network is a critical
                                                                                                                                                 modes.                                        Development proposals for the City will          investments should aim to reduce
the motorway network are identified in              traffic accessing Southampton on the           component of the Solent strategic
                                                                                                                                                                                               see the city centre expand westwards             delays and improve journey reliability
both previous reports by stakeholders               A33, and shorter distance journeys             network. In addition to strategic
                                                                                                                                                                                               between the Port and Southampton                 for goods traffic to and from the Port
and in the Highways England investment              between Eastleigh and Southampton.             movements, the motorway carries large       STRATEGIC ACCESS                                Central station which in turn will increase      of Southampton. This will include
priorities 2019/2020:                               The junctions are short distances apart        volumes of more local movements             TO PORTSMOUTH                                   traffic demand on the A33 corridor.              improvements to M27 Junction 3 and
                                                    and this contributes to congestion from        between the urban areas. As a result,
• M3 Junction 9: M3 Junction 9 is a                                                                                                            In Portsmouth, the principal strategic link     Likewise new development around Town             potential operation of Managed Motorway
                                                    conflicting merging and diverging traffic.     the motorway is congested and
  vital junction in the regional transport                                                                                                     on Portsea island is via the M275. It is        Quay and the relocation of the existing          along the M271 between this junction and
                                                                                                   frequently experiences stop start flows
  network. Although the junction is not           • The access to the Port of Southampton                                                      this corridor that will also accommodate        ferry terminal for access to the Isle of         the end of the motorway (Figure 4.2).
                                                                                                   at peak times.
  within the Solent boundary, it is of critical     is vital and although some reallocation                                                    the bulk of new development and                 Wight also has access from the A33.
  importance to the Solent economy                  of journeys to port and development          • At present, delays are localised at         deliver traffic to an enhanced road
  because it provides the connection to             related activity along the A33 may be          M27 Junctions 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10-11       network associated with new city centre         The A33 is also the primary route for
  the A34 linking the Solent with markets           possible, overall the solution to this         and at the A27 / A2030 junction east        development. Road network changes               port traffic, with access to different parts
  in the Midlands and North.                        section may lie in the need to move            of Portsmouth. However evidence             in the city centre in connection with the       of the docks and to the cruise liner
                                                    more local movements to public                 reviewed form Transport for South           City Centre Supplementary Planning              terminals along the route into the City.
                                                    transport thus freeing capacity for longer     Hampshire4 and outputs from the Sub-        Document will alleviate traffic conditions      Improved public transport connections
                                                    distance freight and port related traffic.     Regional Transport Model predicts that      at the southern end of the M275 as well         to the city centre and riverside and the         9 Access to ports’, House of Commons Transport Committee:

                                                                                                   future congestion is expected to spread     as assisting public transport operations.       rest of the city would go a long way to          Eighth report of Session 2013-14, HC 266 published 26 November
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2013, available at http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/
                                                                                                   to the whole route.                         Likewise the strategic Park & Ride on           helping to alleviate access problems as          cm201314/cmselect/cmtran/266/266.pdf

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