Survey results Number of participants: 880 (China experts and wider public) The survey was conducted online in November-December 2022
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Survey results Number of participants: 880 (China experts and wider public) The survey was conducted online in November-December 2022 1
Part 1: China‘s Domestic Development Greater state control, more ideology and high-risk Covid-19 developments 2
Challenges to China’s economy
Q: In your view, which of the following are significant risks for China’s growth
outlook in 2023?*
Zero-Covid policy
Geopolitical environment
Zero-Covid policy
Instability of the real estate sector
Geopolitical environment
Instability of the real estate sector Global recession
Global recession
Excessive government intervention
Excessive government intervention
Lost access to key foreign technology
Lost access to key foreign technology
Weaker domestic consumption
Government debt levelsWeaker domestic consumption
Chinese financial market crisis
Government debt levels
Corporate/household debt levels
Chinese financial market crisis
Corporate/household debt levels
Not very significant Very significant
* Weighted averages
Note: More than 75 percent of the voting took place before December 5, 2022. Results have therefore been overtaken by events (zero-covid u-turn) to some extent.
3
Losing access to Western tech is China’s biggest R&D obstacle
Q: In your view, which of the following are significant risks for China’s research and
development progress in 2023?
China experts Wider public
Lack of funding
41% 35% 16% 3% 2% 39% 31% 19% 7% 2%
Tech talent shortage
13% 20% 31% 28% 5% 16% 25% 28% 22% 8%
Lack of creativity and
innovation
13% 25% 27% 23% 10% 16% 25% 24% 23% 10%
State interference
9% 14% 18% 39% 19% 6% 15% 22% 32% 22%
Decreasing access to
Western technology and
science cooperation 3% 4% 18% 41% 33% 1% 8% 25% 39% 27%
Not Slightly Moderately Significant Very Not Slightly Moderately Significant Very
significant significant significant significant significant significant significant significant
4
More state control over an economy under stress
Q: In your view, which of the following will shape China’s economic development in 2023?
(Multiple choice)
China experts Wider public
Greater state control over the economy 58%
59%
Economic stress (e.g., rise in inequality and unemployment) 46%
39%
Economic recovery after Covid-19 39%
34%
Global economic slowdown 34%
33%
Economic crisis (e.g., financial crisis, real estate crisis) 32%
34%
China as an innovation powerhouse 12%
14%
Other (Covid-19) 12%
8%
Market liberalization and opening 3%
3%
None of the above 0%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
5Zero-Covid and economic stress create protest potential
Q: Which of the following issues are likely to see public dissent or protests in 2023?
China experts Wider public
Women's rights
35% 16% 36% 11% 1% 33% 21% 35% 9% 1%
Social control & surveillance
17% 17% 33% 28% 5% 14% 15% 34% 26% 11%
Environmental issues
18% 17% 40% 21% 4% 16% 19% 39% 20% 5%
Zero-Covid measures
1% 4% 7% 32% 55% 2% 5% 6% 32% 54%
Economic stress
1% 3% 9% 56% 31% 2% 5% 12% 52% 29%
Social inequality
10% 12% 40% 32% 6% 7% 14% 37% 33% 8%
Xi Jinping further cementing
his grip on power 28% 17% 33% 16% 5% 21% 15% 32% 20% 11%
Not very Somewhat No Somewhat Very Not very Somewhat No Somewhat Very
likely less likely change likely likely likely less likely change likely likely
Note: More than 75 percent of the voting took place before December 5, 2022. Results have therefore been overtaken by events (zero-covid u-turn) to some extent.
6Stability and public order are top priorities for the CCP
Q: In your view, what level of importance do you expect the CCP leadership to
attach to the following domestic issues in 2023?*
Uphold public order andpublic
Uphold contain
orderprotests
and contain protests
Ensure sufficient energyEnsure
supplysufficient energy supply
Organize Covid-19 booster campaigns
Organize Covid-19 booster campaigns
Boost birth-rates
Boost birth-rates
Strengthen anti-corruption campaign
Strengthen anti-corruption campaign
Reduce income inequality
Reduce income inequality
Reform public pensions
Reform public pensions
Support small enterprises and low-income
Support small enterprises and low-income households
households
Not important Very important
* Weighted averages
7China’s leadership: Deference to Xi’s vision
Q: Which course do you see China’s leadership taking in 2023?
China experts Wider public
GreaterGreater
deference to Xi Jinping’s
deference vision, vision,
to Xi Jinping’s with nowith
roomnofor collective
room policy
for collective 42%
consultation policy consultation 41%
38%
Ideology will trump pragmatism
34%
Internal and external challenges mean that the CCP will be 15%
Internal and external challenges mean that the CCP will be more pragmatic
more pragmatic 19%
Intra-party opposition towards
Intra-party Xi will
opposition becomeXipublicly
towards visible,
will become demanding
publicly a
visible, 3%
more fundamental change in course
demanding a more fundamental change in course 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
8Common Prosperity: No substantial steps expected
Q: Will substantial new policies to address inequality be rolled out under the label of
“common prosperity” in 2023?
China experts Wider public
17%
Yes, new policies and legislation will be put forth
16%
48%
No substantial steps will be taken despite increased rhetoric
54%
The party state will pressure high-income groups and 30%
The party state will pressure high-income groups and companies to donate
companies to donate 25%
3%
Other (a mix of policies)
2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
9Part 2: Foreign policy & EU-China relations Stable ties with Russia, deteriorating relations with the West 10
China shifts priorities in shaping the world order
Q: In your view, will the following Chinese initiatives increase or decrease in relevance
for China in 2023 compared to 2022?
China experts Wider public
Belt and Road Initiative 6% 49% 33% 10% 1% 5% 38% 33% 20% 4%
Global Data Security 1% 5% 38% 41% 5% 1% 9% 35% 40% 7%
Initiative
Global Development 1% 12% 32% 35% 13% 1% 12% 33% 39% 9%
Initiative
Global Security Initiative 2% 8% 28% 44% 13%
1% 7% 25% 43% 16%
Decrease Decrease No Increase Increase Decrease Decrease No Increase Increase
considerably somewhat changes somewhat considerably considerably somewhat changes somewhat considerably
11Pro-Russian neutrality to remain in place
Q: In your view, how will China’s position on the war in Ukraine develop in 2023?
China experts Wider public
13%
Expand support for Russia
9%
54%
Stay the same
56%
31%
Decrease support for Russia
33%
2%
Other (depends on war developments)
2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
12Sino-Russian economic ties expected to intensify
Q: In your view, how will China-Russia economic ties develop in 2023?
China experts Wider public
Chinese imports from
Russia
4% 16% 65% 13% 1% 8% 20% 53% 16%
Chinese exports to Russia
1% 6% 16% 58% 18% 1% 6% 17% 54% 20%
Chinese investments in
Russia
4% 16% 33% 37% 7% 3% 16% 31% 40% 8%
Russian investments in
China
10% 32% 40% 15% 1% 10% 29% 36% 18% 3%
Use of the RMB in
China-Russia trade
9% 57% 32% 1% 1% 17% 52% 25%
Decrease Somewhat No Somewhat Increase Decrease Somewhat No Somewhat Increase
considerably decrease changes increase considerably considerably decrease changes increase considerably
13China’s foreign relations: Slight deterioration expected
Q: In your view, how will China’s relations with the following states and entities
develop in 2023?*
with thewith the EU
EU With the EU
with France
with France
with Germany With France
with India
with Germany
with Japan With Germany
with Russia
with India
with Ukraine With India
with thewith
US Japan
with the UK With Japan
1 EX with Russia
1 WP
2 EX with With Russia
Ukraine
2 WP
3 EX withWith
theUkraine
US
with With
the UK
the US
With the UK
Deteriorate considerably Improve considerably
* Weighted averages
14EU-China relations: politically tense, economically stable
Q: How do you expect EU-China relations to evolve in 2023?*
Political relations will Economic relations will
Improve 2% 1% 0% 8% 2%
considerably 100% 2% 100%
4% 5%
16% 14%
Somewhat 15%
18% 24%
improve 33%
75% 75%
25%
Remain
47%
stable
35%
50% 51% 50%
68%
Somewhat
decrease 45%
51%
25% 25%
Decrease 35% 35%
considerably 19%
15% 11% 7% 4% 2% 2%
0% 0%
2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
* Merged responses of China experts and the wider public
15EU-China relations: Challenges on many levels
Q: In 2023, the biggest challenge for the EU in EU-China relations will be…*
China experts Wider public
EU unity on China 7,9 7,5 EU unity on China
Pressure from the US to align
China's position on the war in Ukraine 7,4 7,1
against China
Pressure from the US to align
6,9 6,9 China's position on the war in Ukraine
against China
Tech transfer/Loss of competitiveness 6,6 6,5 Lack of market access
Lack of market access 6,4 6,4 Chinese actions vis-a-vis Taiwan
Chinese actions vis-a-vis Taiwan 6,0 6,4 Tech transfer/Loss of competitiveness
Politically motivated retaliation
5,7 5,9 Human rights
vs EU companies
Politically motivated retaliation
Chinese interference in EU affairs 5,5 5,7
vs EU companies
Human rights 5,3 5,6 Chinese interference in EU affairs
Chinese influence in the Global South 4,6 4,9 Engaging on climate change
Engaging on climate change 4,6 4,5 Chinese influence in the Global South
* Average ranks
16EU-China relations: Opportunities for cooperation
Q: In 2023, in which areas are the EU and its member states likely to be able to make
relevant progress with regard to cooperation opportunities with China?*
China experts Wider public
Climate change 6,2 5,8 Climate change
Debt relief for third countries 5,1 4,8 Trade, investment, market access
Combatting the pandemic 5,0 4,8 Combatting the pandemic
Global development policy 4,9 4,7 Global development policy
Trade, investment, market access 4,4 4,7 Debt relief for third countries
Cultural cooperation 4,4 4,6 Cultural cooperation
Peace and stability 4,3 4,3 Science and technology
Science and technology 3,7 4,2 Peace and stability
* Average ranks from most progress to least with regard to cooperation opportunities
17The EU on the global stage: More focus on diversification
Q: In 2023, the EU and the majority of its member states should prioritize:
China experts Wider public
Diversifying its partnerships globally (e.g.,
Diversifying in Indo-Pacific
its partnerships or in
globally 60%
Africa)
(e.g. in Indo-Pacific or in Africa) 59%
24%
Aligning more with the US
22%
8%
Focusing on internal affairs
10%
7%
Other
5%
1%
Aligning more with China
4%
0%
None of the above
1%
0%
N/A
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
18Economic ties between China and EU expected to weaken
Q: In your view, how will the following economic ties between China and the EU
develop in 2023?
China experts Wider public
Science & tech
cooperation 18% 59% 15% 7% 14% 53% 20% 10% 1%
EU investments into
5% 50% 24% 18% 1% 7% 48% 25% 17% 2%
China
Chinese investments 4% 36% 24% 30% 5%
4% 36% 27% 28% 3%
into the EU
EU exports to China 1% 45% 28% 24% 1% 1% 34% 36% 26% 1%
Chinese exports to 21% 32% 40% 5% 1% 23% 31% 39% 5%
the EU
EU citizens working 37% 44% 4% 11% 2% 32% 43% 12% 10% 1%
in China
Chinese citizens 6% 35% 27% 27% 2% 6% 32% 28% 29% 3%
working in the EU
Decrease Somewhat No Somewhat Increase Decrease Somewhat No Somewhat Increase
considerably decrease changes increase considerably considerably decrease changes increase considerably
19EU-China economic relations: Support for diversifying
Q: To what degree do you support or oppose the following policy options for the
EU’s economic approach towards China in 2023?*
Policy measures to support diversification away from China
Strengthening inbound investment screening mechanisms
Policy measures to support diversification
away from China
Increasing export controls of key technologies
Strengthening inbound investment screening
mechanisms
Deeper
Increasing export transatlantic
controls of keyeconomic cooperation
technologies
Deeper transatlantic
A bilateral economicagreement
trade and investment cooperation
with Taiwan
A bilateral trade
An EU and investment
outbound agreement
investment screening mechanism
with Taiwan Strongly Somewhat No Somewhat Strongly
An EU outbound investment screening oppose oppose view support support
mechanism
* Weighted averages
20EU-China science and tech collaboration: More restrictive
and selective
Q: What should Europe’s general approach to (public sector / private sector)
science and technology cooperation with China be?
Deep engagement
through tech 2% 2% 5% 6%
cooperation
Selective expansion of
tech cooperation 29% 40% 35% 42%
Active de-risking and
restrictions for 56% 50% 45% 43%
tech cooperation
Slowing China's rate
of innovation 12% 6% 13% 7%
Public sector Private sector Public sector Private sector
(experts) (experts) (wider public) (wider public)
21EU-China economic dependence: From integration to
decoupling?
Q: On a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 is “full-fledged economic decoupling” and 100
is “deep global integration", where do you assess EU-China economic relations to be today and in 5 years?
Today In 5 years
65
China experts
48
62
Wider public
49
0 25 50 75 100
22Survey statistics: Origin of survey participants (1) Survey respondents consisted of 729 members of the wider public and 151 experts 23
Survey statistics: Origin of survey participants (2)
Survey respondents consisted of 729 members of the wider public and 151 experts
China experts Wider public
N/A 0% N/A 1%
Ph.D. 36% Ph.D. 37%
Master's 60% Master's 51%
Bachelor's 3% Bachelor's 9%
High school 0% High school 2%
Lower than high school 0% Lower than high school 0%
None of the above 0% None of the above 0%
Other 1% Other 1%
Female; 32% Male; 67% 26% 72%
Prefer not to say; 1% Prefer not to say; 2%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
24Survey statistics: Origin of survey participants (3)
Survey respondents consisted of 729 members of the wider public and 151 experts
China experts Wider public
Company
Academic institution
Think tank
Government
Media
Diplomatic service
NGO
EU institution
N/A
Other (please specify)
Political party
Other international institution
None of the above
Trade union
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
25Survey statistics: Origin of survey participants (4)
Survey respondents consisted of 729 members of the wider public and 151 experts
China experts
COUNTRY PERCENT
Germany 39%
China 8%
United States 7%
Belgium 7%
United Kingdom 5%
France 5%
Poland 4%
Netherlands 4%
Sweden 3%
Czech Republic 3%
26Survey statistics: Origin of survey participants (4)
Survey respondents consisted of 729 members of the wider public and 151 experts
Wider public
COUNTRY PERCENT
Germany 44%
China 9%
United States of America 7%
United Kingdom 5%
Belgium 4%
France 3%
Italy 3%
Switzerland 2%
Austria 2%
Singapore 2%
27Contact
MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies
The MERICS China Forecast 2023 has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon
Klosterstraße 64 Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement number 101061700. The
event is part of "China Horizons", a multi-year project bringing together nine research
10179 Berlin institutions from seven EU member states. Its aim is to strengthen Europe's independent
Tel.: +49 30 3440 999 0 knowledge base on China's politics, society and economy.
Mail: info@merics.de Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily
reflect those of the European Union or [name of the granting authority]. Neither the
www.merics.org European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
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