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The Circle
No. 2. 2009
An age of urgency
Resilience-building
Communities and change
8
14
20
The future
of arctic
conservation
P U B L I S H E D B Y T H E W W F I n te r n ati o n a l AR C T I C P RO G RA M M E
Th e Ci rc l e 2 . 2 0 0 9
Contents
Neil Hamilton: EDITORIAL: Arctic conservation in times of rapid climate change 3
News in brief 4
Michael Us her, Philip Wo okey: Arctic conservation: An opportunity lost or an opportunity not to be missed? 6
Mark Nuttall: Conservation in an age of urgency 8
Daniel B. Fagre: Thresholds of climate change in arctic ecosystems 10
Sahotra Sarkar: Climate change and the prospects for biodiversity conservation in the Arctic 12
F. Stuart Chapin, iii: Resilience-building to conserve a rapidly changing future 14
Peter O Thomas, Timothy J. Ragen: Ensuring marine mammal conservation in a rapidly changing Arctic 15
Ellen Inga Turi: Resilience in reindeer husbandry 18
Henry Huntington: Communities, change, and conservation: Comparing the Arctic and the Himalayas 20
Grete K. Hovelsrud: Adapting to climate change: Uncertainty on several levels 21
Donald McLennan: Protecting biodiversity in a rapidly changing world – issues for the Canadian arctic 22
Tom Barry: Biodiversity and the Arctic: CAFF’s view 26
Jacqueline McGlade: The European Environment Agency and the Arctic 27
Miriam Geitz: Arctic conservation – where do we go from here and how fast do we get there? 29
THE PICTURE: Founding fathers of national parks 32
The Circle is published quarterly by the WWF International Publisher: Programme Director: Neil Hamilton, nhamilton@wwf.no
Arctic Programme. Reproduction and quotation with ap- WWF International Arctic Programme, Editor in Chief: Clive Tesar, ctesar@wwf.no
propriate credit are encouraged. Articles by non-affiliated PO Box 6784 St Olavs plass Editor: Lena Eskeland, leskeland@wwf.no
sources do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of N-0130 Oslo, Norway
WWF. Send change of address and subscription queries to Ph: +47 22 03 65 00 Design and production:
the address on the right. We reserve the right to edit letters Fax: +47 22 20 06 66 Film & Form/Ketill Berger, ketill.berger@filmform.no
for publication, and assume no responsibility for unsolicited Internet: www.panda.org/arctic Printed at Merkur-Trykk AS
material. Please include name, title and address with all
correspondence. Date of publication: June, 2009.
ISSN 2074-076X = The Circle (Online)
the circle 2.2009
Ed i t o r i a l
Arctic conservation in times
of rapid climate change
Conservation is a difficult concept. With nature under pressure and
limited resources at hand, it implies conscious decisions about what is
worth keeping, and how this should be done. This process becomes even
more difficult in an environment which is changing so rapidly that no one
fully understands what the future will look like. Time could be running
out for much of what we would like, or indeed need, to conserve.
This edition of The Circle focuses on arctic conservation in times of
rapid climate change. We invited conservation experts from a variety of
disciplines and organizations to share their thoughts, and are proud to
present a very distinguished group of authors who,
thanks to their different perspectives, have a lot of
inspiring and challenging arguments and opinions.
Some ask questions, some propose concrete
solutions, but common to them all is the fact that
they highlight the urgent need to rethink the current
approach to arctic conservation. As pointed out by
Terry Chapin, ‘conservation’ suggests an effort to
sustain current species and ecosystems and ‘keep
Dr Neil Hamilton
things the same’.
Director
A ‘business as usual’ approach when the world
WWF International Arctic
around us is rapidly changing is futile. New ways of
Programme
thinking are needed. There are uncertainties related
nhamilton@wwf.no
to what these new approaches should be, but a rough
direction and certain elements seem to emerge
already where the issue is discussed, for example in the jointly organized
WWF/Royal Swedish Academy of
“
Sciences workshop on Arctic Con-
We may not be
servation Science in Times of Rapid
able to maintain Change earlier this year.
the status quo, so WWF is actively redefining its
conservation agenda in light of
our decisions need to be
these challenges in a manner which
based around desirable we hope will develop answers that
alternatives for arctic will have a lasting impact for arctic
ecosystems. We may not be able
ecosystems, including
to maintain the status quo, so our
the arctic peoples. decisions need to be based around
desirable alternatives for arctic eco-
systems, including the arctic peoples. These desirable alternatives must be
based on sound principles and values – both for their definition but also
for the process that will get us there. This publication is part of WWF’s ef-
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) on ice pack. fort to fuel a discussion for a clear and shared understanding of what these
PHOTO: © www.JSGrove.com/WWF
principles and values might be.
On a broader note I would like to thank all of you who have praised the
first edition of The Circle. It is a big step to change a longstanding and
Cover: Raja Serotetto reindeer herding at the Yamal peninsula
(brigade no. 8 of Yarsalinskoye) in April 2007. respected publication like the Arctic Bulletin, and, despite our best efforts
Photo: Ellen Inga Turi. to ensure we ‘got it right’ before publication, it is very reassuring to hear
that the format and content work even better than we had hoped. Many
The WWF International Arctic Programme gratefully ac- thanks!
knowledges the financial support of The W. Garfield Weston
Foundation for publication of The Circle.
t h e c i rc l e 2 . 2009 
In brief
Endangered Peoples, Lynge sneak preview of where his is called Climate wars,
wrote: “It is very strange research is heading, draw- and details how a warming
for the Indian trapper in the ing the attention to the fact world can easily boil over in
Canadian forests or for the that climate change is not series of global flashpoints.
Greenlandic seal hunter in a just about disappearing ice, Projections for a global
kayak - people who live as and thinner polar bears, but a temperature increase above
their forebears did further global problem that requires two degrees mean many of
back in history than anyone an urgent global solution. the world’s people will go
can remember – to hear com- Huebert detailed the recent hungry. The temperature
ments made about the suffer- build-up of military interest tolerance of the world’s main
ing of the poor animals. Who and capacity in the north. food crops will be exceeded
cares about the suffering that While not suggesting that in tropical and subtropical
the hunter and the trapper conflict in the north is immi- regions. “India will lose 25
Photo: Rie Oldenburg
themselves endure in order nent, his research shows that percent of its agricultural
to secure the daily food for various parties are certainly production at two degrees
their families? All living preparing for that possibility. hotter,” says Dyer. He says
Finn Lynge on his way things suffer; it has always Huebert was joined on figures published only fleet-
through the Narsaq Strait. been this way. Suffering the stage by Gwynne Dyer, ingly from China suggest the
is the price of life, and life a distinguished London- giant nation could lose up to
feeds on death. Have the city based broadcaster and 38 percent of its agricultural
WWF award dwellers forgotten this truth author. Dyer’s latest book production.
of life?”
to Finn Lynge
Greenlander Finn Arctic The end of a ‘gruelling’
Lynge was the recipient of
one of the five WWF Awards climate expedition
for Conservation Merit given The WWF-sponsored Catlin Arctic Survey team has
out at this year’s WWF An- change and returned after 73 days of mental and physical challenges on
nual Meeting. Lynge has had the arctic ice. “It was a gruelling but successful expedition,”
a long and outstanding career security said expedition leader Pen Hadow. The survey route covered
as priest, social worker, head 440 km, during which the team captured around 16,000 ob-
of Greenland’s Radio Broad- A WWF commissioned servations and took 1,500 measurements of the thickness and
casting, politician, NGO study to be released later this density of the ice.
activist, civil servant, author year shows that the threat “The average thickness was 1.77 meters,” said Hadow.
and an active commentator to world security from a “We had been led by scientists to expect a good mix of old
and writer. He is the only melting Arctic is prompting and new ice, but found younger, thinner ice. There is a high
Greenlandic politician to widespread international probability that sea ice will be a seasonal feature only.” The
be elected a Member of the concern. The Arctic climate team is now in the process of analysing the data, and expect
European Parliament. change and security report the first results to be released in the next months.
Lynge has worked over is led by Dr. Rob Huebert, a
many years to broaden the well-known Canadian expert
understanding and bridge on Arctic security issues. The
the traditional gap between report is expected to provide
Indigenous peoples’ hunting important additional angles
interests and environmental to the climate change debate,
organizations. This award besides the environmental
recognizes the role he has perspectives.
played in bringing about a At a WWF-sponsored
change in perspective for ‘Climate wars 2030’ event
both parties. at the 2030 North Confer-
Photo: Martin Hartley www.martinhartley.com
In his 1992 book, Arc- ence in Ottawa in June,
tic Wars, Animal Rights, Huebert gave participants a
the circle 2.2009
border, and depend upon village officials have identi- countries of the world must
habitats in Russia for critical fied 31 villages that face now act to cut their green
aspects of their life history, imminent threats.” It adds, house gas emissions in
such as maternal denning. “Since 2003, state officials order to slow and eventually
To understand the status of have identified the growing reverse the effects of climate
the entire Chukchi popula- impacts of climate change, change.”
tion and ensure its sound increasing the urgency of
management, coordinated federal and state efforts to
research programs must be identify imminently threat- Closer to
initiated in both countries, he ened villages and assess
emphasized. their relocation options.” Canadian
Photo: Eric Regehr, USFWS.
“This collaboration will Impacts quoted in the report
be critical in coming years include millions of dollars conservation
as we try to understand the of property damage, and in
current status of the shared some cases imminent threats wins
Chukchi polar bear popula- to lives and homes from
Nikita Ovsyanikov weighing tion,” said WWF polar bear flooding and erosion. Representing a major
a sedated polar bear. coordinator Geoff York. Of the 31 villages facing reform in planning approach,
imminent threats, 12 have and ably helped along the
either decided to relocate, way by WWF-Canada Presi-
Polar bear or to look at relocation op- dent Emeritus Monte Hum-
collaboration 31 Alaskan tions. However, many of the
Alaskan villages threatened
mel, the government of the
Ontario province announced
villages ‘face are not eligible for federal its Far North Planning Act,
In M ay, R ussian bi- government assistance pro- outlining the government’s
ologist Nikita Ovsyanikov imminent grammes to relocate, because conservation and economic
participated in polar bear federal rules do not recog- development vision for
research in the Alaskan threats’ nize their local governments. Northern Ontario. “This Act
Chukchi Sea led by the U.S. “This is a clear exam- stands to make a precedent-
Fish and Wildlife Service. from climate ple of how climate change setting contribution to fresh-
The scientific exchange was threatens to transform our water conservation, help
sponsored by WWF as a change world,” said Bill Eichbaum, build ecosystem resilience
continuation of the organiza- WWF-US Vice President in a changing climate, and
tion’s support of US/Russian A US government agen- for marine and arctic policy. protect huge natural car-
polar bear conservation and cy is recommending more “The speed and severity of bon reserves in boreal peat
research efforts. During the concerted action from the the changes we are now wit- lands,” said Monte Hummel.
stay, USFWS biologist Eric US government to address nessing, here in Alaska and The Act could become the
Regehr familiarized Ovsyan- Alaskan villages threatened worldwide, both underscore largest conservation commit-
ikov with the methods used by climate change impacts. and amplify the profound ment in Canadian history.
to immobilize polar bears for A new report by the Govern- urgency with which the
research, and the measure- ment Accountability Office
ments, samples, and demo- updates a 2003 assessment
graphic information obtained
from them.
when it found that most of
the more than two hundred
Please help us improve the
“Ovsyanikov’s knowledge
of polar bear behaviour
native villages in Alaska
were affected by flooding or
distribution of The Circle
brought a unique perspective erosion. In an effort to reduce our footprint, WWF is pleased to
to the project, and provided The report says, “While offer The Circle electronically. If you would like to receive
ideas about how to improve the flooding and erosion The Circle electronically, or have questions or comments
handling methods,” said threats to Alaska Native related to the publication, please send us a message on
Regehr. Polar bears in the villages have not been arcticmedia@wwf.no.
Chukchi Sea move freely completely assessed, since
across the international 2003, federal, state, and
t h e c i rc l e 2 . 2009 
Cu r r e n t s tat u s
Arctic conservation:
An opportunity lost or an
opportunity not to be missed?
If we had to define a totally new conservation strategy for the Arctic, would
we be thinking about anything like the policies, structures and activities that
we have now, ask Mi c hael U sher and P hilip Wookey.
Of course this is an unanswerable ‘catch-up’ mode and may not have the and mechanisms for the conservation of
question because over the years there capacity to adapt. Taking just one ex- biodiversity. The Convention on Bio-
has been activity both in the Arctic and ample, the tundra biome is being com- logical Diversity stems from the United
worldwide, and all of this must be taken pressed between the boreal zone, which Nations Conference on Environment
into consideration when we think of the is moving northwards, and the shore of and Development in Rio de Janeiro in
future. So, where have we got to and the Arctic Ocean, which is more or less 1992. The majority of the planet’s na-
where do we want to go? fixed (although rapidly eroding in many tions have signed and ratified this con-
Perhaps the one piece of work that places through both wave action and vention, which places responsibility on
has most shaped recent thinking about the processes of thermokarst; the melt- individual nations to conserve their bio-
the Arctic is the Arctic Climate Impacts ing of permafrost). Many of the species diversity, to use biodiversity resources
Assessment, ably led by Robert Corell and habitats are potentially highly sustainably, and to share the benefits.
and launched in Reykjavík in Novem- vulnerable to change, especially those The Convention on Migratory Species
ber 2005. The most important key mes- of the northern tundra, semi-deserts and was adopted in 1979 and entered into
sage from this assessment is that the polar deserts (see vegetation zones map force in 1983. Many of the Arctic’s spe-
climate of the Arctic is changing and on the following page), as well as those cies of birds and sea mammals would
that it is changing faster than in most that are specialists of snow-beds. be covered by this convention. The
other parts of the planet. A second key Globally there is a suite of policies Ramsar Convention, one of the oldest
message is that the Arctic‘s of the international biodiversity
climate affects the climates conventions (1971), is focussed
of many other parts of the on wetland conservation and the
world. The ongoing change in delivery of ecosystem services
the Arctic is occurring even to human populations, not only
more rapidly than most global in the wetlands themselves but
climate models predict, and more widely. The Convention
these models already include Prof. Michael Usher Philip Wookey is
on International Trade in En-
an element for polar amplifi- (OBE, FRSE) is Chair Professor of Ecosys-
dangered Species has perhaps
cation. of the Inter-Agency tem Ecology at the
not been reflected so much in
Climate Change University of Stirling,
the Arctic, but its growing focus
In constant Forum of the UK’s Scotland. He has
on invasive alien species could
catch-up Joint Nature Conser- worked since 1991 on
become increasingly important
Conventional wisdom sug- vation Committee and the potential effects of
in a warming Arctic.
gests that biodiversity should Honorary Professor environmental change
increase with warming in the at the universities of on the structure and Protected areas
medium to long term, but the Aberdeen, Edinburgh function of terres- and moni tori ng
rapid rates of climate change and Stirling. Since trial ecosystems in
There are also many legal in-
will mean that ecosystems retiring in 2001, he has the Fennoscandian
struments that apply to just one
(and species) are always in a worked on reports on mountains, Svalbard,
nation or a group of nations.
the effects of climate northern Iceland and
change on biodiver- the North Slope of
sity in the Arctic and Alaska.
the circle 2.2009
protected areas of
Europe.
Vegetation zones in the Arctic.
Map: Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
In Europe, the most important would and reviewed in order to ensure that it ment techniques are most appropriate
be the Birds and Habitats Directives of does actually cover the full range of the for the long-term conservation of that
1979 and 1992 respectively. Much of Arctic’s present biodiversity (terrestrial, protected area’s biodiversity.
this legislation, whether it be national, freshwater and marine). An assessment As well as protected areas, there are
regional or international, calls for the needs to be made for every one of the two other essential activities. First, and
establishment of networks of protected protected areas of the likely effects of one that has long been used by conser-
areas. And indeed such networks have climate change, and other drivers of vationists, is monitoring (or the terms
come into being, with the Circumpo- change, on its biodiversity. In light of ‘surveillance’ or ‘observatory’ may be
lar Protected Area Network (CPAN). these assessments, decisions must be preferable). In the Arctic this has been
However, CPAN needs to be completed made about which adaptive manage- developed as the Circumpolar Biodi-
t h e c i rc l e 2 . 2009 
Th e c h a l l e n g e
versity Monitoring Program with its as-
sociated Arctic Biodiversity Monitoring
Strategy, both facilitated by The Arctic
Council’s organisation ‘Conservation
Conservation in an
of Arctic Fauna and Flora’ (CAFF).
As well as highlighting what has been
changing, the monitoring data should
age of urgency
assist us in understanding why it has
changed, and, given the sensitivity of the The world as we have known it will look strikingly different in the
Arctic, is set to provide an early detec-
next century or two. Climate change adds new dimensions of ur-
tion system for the impacts of environ-
mental change on the whole planet. gency to conservation programmes, says Mark N uttall. New
approaches to arctic conservation need to be increasingly human-
‘Ecosystem ap proach’
centred.
Second, and of more recent origin than
monitoring, is ’The Ecosystem Ap-
proach’, advocated by the Convention
on Biological Diversity. This approach Climate c hange is not a phenom- climate change, I am struck by the fact
recognises the importance of uniting enon peculiar to the end of the 20th that even fifty years or more ago, sci-
both human (social and economic) and century and the beginning of the new entists were sounding alarm bells about
environmental concerns. The inclusion millennium. In the Arctic, for example, ecological transformation yet nothing
in biodiversity plans of the Indigenous we can certainly point to numerous was acted upon. In Late Lessons from
peoples is central to the ecosystem examples of past climatic change in the Early Warnings, a 2002 report by the
approach. Perhaps the Arctic is the geological and glaciological records, European Environment Agency (EEA),
greatest geographical area on planet as well as in the oral history of arctic a number of case studies were present-
Earth where this overarching approach peoples. But there are a number of dif- ed that show how adequate information
to managing our environment for all ferences between past climate change was available about potential hazards
species, including the human species, and that currently being experienced, long before decisive regulatory advice
can be applied. as well as the changes predicted for the was taken. The information was either
It must be acknowledged, however, coming decades. Firstly, our aware- not brought to the attention of decision-
that the geopolitical climate is com- ness of the nature, extent and reach of makers or was ignored or discounted
plex. The wealth of natural resources climate change is profoundly more so for many different reasons (skepti-
in the Arctic, as well as the prospect than a generation or two ago, so that cism being chief amongst them). Early
of an ice-free Arctic Ocean, will all our discussion of it is now at the fore- warnings were also ignored because of
mean that resource exploitation and the front of debate about how we imagine political or economic considerations.
development of industrial and transport ourselves and the planet in the future. As the world’s leaders prepare to meet
infrastructure will gather rapid pace. Secondly, scientists increasingly talk in Copenhagen to thrash out a new
Set against this highly dynamic back- of ’tipping points’, thresholds beyond post-Kyoto deal at COP15 in December
ground the urgent need for biodiversity which ecosystems will change irrevers- 2009, it is to be hoped that they will
action seems obvious, and there is ibly. We are at the point of no return, it consider this EEA report, learn from the
scope for CPAN to raise its ambitions seems. Climate change is happening, it mistakes of failing to heed early warn-
accordingly. Furthermore, although the is going to get worse and far more ex- ings, and familiarize themselves with
terrestrial and freshwater realms might treme, and the world as we have known the report’s recommendations.
be recipients of the strongest direct it will look strikingly different in the The implications of climate change
impacts of human activity, and to date next century or two. for biodiversity and cultural diversity,
have experienced the greatest amount for plant and animal species and for
of conservation activity, current protec- E arly warn i ngs human societies, will be significant and
tion of marine systems is trailing far Both of these aspects of our under- they present immediate and far-reach-
behind. An international convention for standing of climate change and its ing challenges to nature conservation.
the conservation of the Arctic’s marine impacts and consequences influence In the Arctic, there is clear evidence
resources is long overdue. These are all discussion about the urgency of appro- from both Indigenous/local observa-
opportunities which cannot and should priate responses in terms of policy and tions and scientific research to show
not be missed. action. When I read earlier accounts of that animal populations – their habitats
the circle 2.2009
and ranges, seasonal and migration pat- sive and extreme as the climate of the Conservation takes the environment
terns and their reproductive behaviour arctic continues to change. Although and the ’natural’ world as its focus
– are already being affected by climate a few animal species will find a niche – often assuming that it can define it,
change. This and more has been report- in which to thrive, many will struggle engineer it, and also mould it in a shape
ed on extensively in the Arctic Climate to adapt in habitats that have changed that will enable adaptation. Perspec-
Impact Assessment and subsequent dramatically. Some will probably face tives from the natural sciences have
scientific research. In the course of my extinction or lose genetically important long dominated biodiversity conserva-
work, I talk with people in Greenland, parts of their populations. No animal tion theories, methods and practices.
northern Canada and Finland who appears to be more iconic than the polar At the same time, perspectives from
remark how the very taste of animals is bear in this regard. So what does all this social scientists are contributing to the
now different. Although all are careful mean for conservation and its underly- redefinition of con-
not to attribute this to climate change, ing ideas, methods and philosophies? servation as being
they nonetheless see this as indicating first and foremost a
something is changing in the environ- Natural sc ience thoroughly human
ment that affects the animals they hunt, dominat ion issue. The reasons
herd and ultimately eat. Such effects are Climate change adds new dimensions for putting conser-
likely to become more apparent, exten- of urgency to conservation pro- vation measures in Mark Nuttall is a
grammes. Globally, place are because social anthropologist.
Killer whale (Orcinus orca). extreme, radical con- impacts leading to He holds the Henry
servation strategies loss of biodiversity Marshall Tory Chair
are being considered, are largely caused in the Department of
such as ’managed’ by human activity. Anthropology at the
or ’assisted’ loca- Conservation is University of Alberta,
tion, which usu- also a human issue Canada, and is also
ally involves moving because the admin- Academy of Fin-
species – manually istrative dimensions land Distinguished
– into habitats where of conservation are Professor at the Thule
they can thrive. It is a based on human Institute, University of
controversial strat- decision-making Oulu, Finland.
egy, especially given processes; species
concern over invasive and ecosystems are
species, but only one often conserved for human use; and
© Kevin SCHAFER / WWF-Canon
of many which are the success of conservation measures
being taken seriously rely on human action, politics, cultural
by some conservation- attitudes and behaviour.
ists. Other examples
of radical conserva- Conservat i on social
“
tion include plans to sci ence
establish vast migra- As we strive to rethink conservation
The reasons for tory corridors that science and management in an age of
protecting polar extend thousands of
kilometers, preserving
rapid climate change, new approaches
to arctic conservation need to be based
bears or whales, the genetic diver- increasingly on conservation social sci-
sity of threatened and ence rather than just conservation sci-
for instance, are very endangered species in ence. They need to be grounded firmly
seed banks, fertiliz- and securely in better knowledge of the
different to members ing the oceans so that complexity of social systems and social
of environmental NGOs they can increase
their absorption of
relations, the complexity of human-
environment relations and how they
living in European cities greenhouse gases, and intersect with regional and global proc-
geo-engineering the esses, an understanding of the cultural
and to members of Earth to control rising importance of what is being conserved,
temperatures. and an understanding of the politics of
hunting households in
northern Greenland.
t h e c i rc l e 2 . 2009 
Ti p pi n g p o i n t s
environmental governance. They need
to be attentive to societal inequali-
ties and processes of social exclusion
(for example, what are the impacts of
Thresholds of
protected areas and management re-
gimes on people’s livelihoods?) and be
appreciative of diverse social, cultural
climate change in
and political meanings and understand-
ing of conservation. The reasons for
protecting polar bears or whales, for
arctic ecosystems
instance, are very different to members
of environmental NGOs living in Euro- Nowhere are the ecological threshold concepts arguably more ap-
pean cities and to members of hunting plicable than to arctic ecosystems, where fundamental changes seem
households in northern Greenland. But
to be transforming ecological relationships and landscapes at rates
contested ideas of conservation are also
often profoundly local – for instance, that surprise inhabitants, managers and policymakers, says Da n i e l
as work carried out by myself and col- B. Fagre. The Arctic is experiencing effects now that are decades
leagues on the conservation of wolves
ahead of those projected for the rest of the globe.
and other large predatory carnivores in
Finland’s southeast reindeer herding
area shows. There, reindeer herders,
farmers, hunters, tourist entrepreneurs, Many ecosystems have persisted change with positive feedbacks – chang-
wildlife officials, environmental- for centuries to millennia with relatively es that reinforce themselves and ac-
ists, and a range of other local actors little change and, therefore, appear celerate the whole process. Nowhere are
all have very different ideas of what to be stable. Yet ecologists have long these concepts arguably more germane
conservation actually means. And so a understood that ecosystems can go than to arctic ecosystems where funda-
local conflict plays itself out within a through very rapid change, and even mental changes seem to be transforming
national context and solutions or even collapse, when critical tipping points ecological relationships and landscapes
compromises seem difficult to reach. or thresholds are reached. New species at rates that surprise inhabitants, manag-
Social science approaches to con- assemblages, adaptations, and even new ers and policymakers.
servation also recognize the crucial species often result, depending upon the
importance of involving a range of length of ecological recovery. However, Arctic threshold
stakeholders and actors – members of these threshold events pose very real changes
local communities in particular, as well problems for human societies that are The Arctic has warmed more rapidly
as scientists and policymakers – as dependent on the natural resources and than the rest of the planet. In Alaska, for
partners in designing and implementing ecological services that ecosystems pro- instance, the warming rate is more than
what are essentially human-centred ap- vide. History is replete with examples twice the rate of the rest of the United
proaches to conservation. A fundamen- of civilizations that largely disappeared States. The annual average temperature
tal first step for conservation is to be due to rapid ecosystem change, most has increased by 1.9°C since the mid-
attentive to ways of improving relations recently chronicled in Jared Diamond’s 20th century, and the increase is much
between different actors who often have book Collapse. greater in winter (3.5°C). Not surpris-
diverse and contested perspectives. The As defined in a recent report from ingly, there are numerous responses to
way we will respond to the effects of the U.S. Climate Change Science the warming such as earlier snowmelt in
climate change on arctic ecosystems, Program, titled Synthesis and Assess- the spring. However, there are simple
species and habitats – and the prospects ment Product 4.2 Thresholds of Climate physical mechanisms that amplify the
for the sustainability of ecosystems Change in Ecosystems, “an ecological warming, accelerate the pace and cre-
and human livelihoods – depends on threshold is the point at which there is ate a threshold of ecological change.
a critical engagement with conserva- an abrupt change in an ecosystem qual- When snow melts earlier, the exposed,
tionist ideas, and a recognition of the ity, property, or phenomenon, or where darker land surface absorbs more solar
primacy of community and rights-based small changes in one or more external radiation and transfers the heat to warm
conservation. conditions produce large and persistent the local atmosphere, causing further
responses in an ecosystem”. Thresholds snow melt which, in turn, leads to
can also be described as rapid nonlinear more land surface to absorb more solar
10 the circle 2.2009radiation. This positive feedback is in tems such as dramatic changes in the prises if not in their occurrence, then in
addition to the external driver, regional wetlands of interior Alaska and Sibe- their rapidity and scope. Presently, there
warming, which is already among the ria, major increases in the frequency are few indicators as to when an eco-
globe’s strongest. The relatively rapid of large-fire years in interior Alaska, system is near an imminent threshold
change in absorption of heat by the vegetation changes in the tundra, and and there is little collective experience
landscape also leads to more growth ecological changes that are affecting in managing ecosystems while crossing
of shrubs and trees that further absorb fisheries in the Bering Sea. One exam- a threshold. The report on thresholds
solar radiation, increase local heating, ple of potential threshold change that concludes by look-
and facilitate growth of more shrubs and is relevant to both regional and global ing at what can be
trees. In northern Alaska, Terry Chapin scales is the thawing of permafrost. done given that
and others calculated that this positive A documented decrease in the area of climate change is
feedback effect on snowmelt and local closed-basin lakes (that is, lakes without global in nature but
heating was similar in magnitude to the stream inputs and outputs) during the manifests itself at Dr Dan Fagre is
doubling of atmospheric CO2! Thus, the latter half of the 20th century is linked local and regional Research Ecologist for
area is experiencing effects now that are to sudden drainage associated with scales. To improve the Northern Rocky
decades ahead of those projected for the thawing of permafrost in areas where our understanding Mountain Science
rest of the globe. Of equal significance the temperature of permafrost is close of thresholds, one Center of the U.S.
is that the vegetation growth is ‘perma- to melting. As more permafrost area suggestion is that Geological Survey and
nent’ because it will tend to reinforce warms, the decrease in closed-basin interdisciplinary Director of the Climate
earlier snowmelt and local heating that lakes could abruptly accelerate in a models of ecosys- Change in Mountain
are optimal for the vegetation. It can threshold fashion for the entire region. tems be improved Ecosystems Project.
be argued that a threshold of climate With regard to global greenhouse gas but also used more He is stationed at
change in this ecosystem was crossed. emission, the release of methane from interactively. The Glacier National Park,
Several research teams cited in the thawed permafrost could increase aim would be to Montana and is a
report document that there has already warming and, in turn, accelerate more provide a frame- faculty affiliate at the
been a 16 percent increase in shrub permafrost thawing. work to organize University of Mon-
cover and the process is continuing. observations and as- tana, Montana State
The report examines a number of Big challenges sess changes in eco- University, University
other potential threshold changes in Thresholds present big challenges for systems in response of Missouri-Colum-
the arctic environment. These include managers of ecosystems and ecological to management bia, University of
substantial changes in ecological sys- services. First, thresholds are often sur- actions. Another Arizona and several
suggestion is to
The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the rest of the planet. The map shows improve ecosystem
other universities. He
the significant temperature increase in the Arctic areas compared to the rest of resilience by using
is an author on more
the world. Map: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
existing manage-
than 120 publications
and has co-published
Surface anomaly January 2009 vs 1951-1980 (°C) ment tools more three books recently.
aggressively. These
include restoring
connectivity, protecting refugia for key
species, and reducing other stressors
such as pollution.
Threshold threats to many ecosystems
are threats to long-term sustainability
of human users as well as biodiversity
and biological adaptive capacity. Given
the magnitude of climate change effects
on ecosystems, the added factor of
sudden threshold changes complicates
societal responses. This underscores the
importance of continued integration of
research and management to develop
appropriate strategies for coping with
-8 -4 -2 -1 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.5 1 2 4 8
thresholds.
Sources and parameters: GHCN_GISS_1200km_Anom01_2009_2009_1951_1980. Note: Gray areas signify missing data.
t h e c i rc l e 2 . 2009 11N ew c o n s e rvat i o n pa ra d i g m
Climate change and the
prospects for biodiversity
conservation in the Arctic
In the face of climate change, conservation of biodiversity in the Arctic presents formidable
challenges to planners and requires new approaches, says Sahotra Sarkar. Unfortunately,
almost all discussion of biodiversity conservation in the Arctic has been based on species.
In the United States, the polar implemented on the ground as soon as species most economically.
bear has already been listed as endan- possible—before the irreversible results While species, especially at-risk
gered because of climate change but, of climate change make it impossible to species, are important, they are not
globally, every ice- prevent the extinction of a large fraction the only components of biodiversity.
dependent marine of arctic species. Adequate biodiversity Unfortunately, almost all discussion of
mammal species is conservation in the Arctic will require biodiversity conservation in the Arctic
probably equally at three elements: a comprehensive area has been based on species. Conserva-
risk. (In the United evaluation and prioritization exercise tion plans must be supplemented by at
Sahotra Sarkar is States, efforts are to identify those areas that represent least including all habitat types (eco-
Professor of Integra- already under- most biodiversity and are least subject systems) in the networks of prioritized
tive Biology and of way to provide to degradation due to climate change; areas. Tools to identify these based on
Philosophy at the legal protection to transnational planning and implemen- remote-sensed data are also available
University of Texas at bearded, ringed, tation of a network of protected areas but have only been used to a limited
Austin. He is the au- and spotted seals with science-based adaptive manage- extent.
thor of over 100 arti- because of climate ment protocols; and large-scale reduc- Finally, these conservation plans and
cles on environmental change.) Migratory tion of industrial activities. sets of prioritized areas should be re-
conservation and five birds that summer fined to include the effect of industrial
books including Sys- in the Arctic are Area pr iori tization activities likely to occur in the Arctic
tematic Conservation also experiencing for conservation under different regulatory scenarios. At
Planning, co-authored habitat declines There is no comprehensive evaluation this stage our uncertainties about the
with Chris Margules though the extent of how climate change will induce spe- future should be explicitly incorporated
(Conservation Interna- of the declines cies’ ranges shifts in the Arctic. Tools to the extent possible. My laboratory
tional). His labora- remains unclear. to map and model species’ distributions has carried out one such analysis for
tory specializes in the To make matters in the face of climate change do exist, northern Alaska. This establishes that
creation of software worse, in much of as does an adequate knowledge base such planning is scientifically feasible
decision support tools the Arctic, these for their deployment. Unfortunately, but, otherwise, it is of limited signifi-
for the prioritization of problems are so far, no agency or organization has cance in the context of the entire Arctic.
areas for biodiversity exacerbated by oil taken the lead to coordinate the most
conservation. and other mineral rudimentary systematic conservation Transnat ional
exploration and planning exercise: collate all species’ planning
extraction activi- distributional data, model their global It goes without saying that plans to
ties that act synergistically with climate distributions as they shift under climate implement such a network of pro-
change to degrade natural habitats. change, assess the models to the extent tected areas must incorporate political
It is imperative that a plan for possible, analyze the performance of opportunities and address constraints.
conserving and monitoring biodiver- existing protected areas, and prioritize The Arctic includes areas claimed by
sity in the Arctic is formulated and networks of areas that would include all seven countries (Canada, Denmark/
12 the circle 2.2009threat to the Arctic is oil and other
mineral exploration and extraction ac-
tivities. In many of the arctic countries,
there continues to be strong political
pressure to persist in these practices,
perhaps most vividly exemplified by
the conflict over oil and gas exploration
in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
in Alaska. There must be a global con-
sensus that all industrial activities in the
Arctic that potentially cause environ-
mental damage must stop. Otherwise,
because of the fragility of many arctic
habitats and the extent and immediacy
of the threats posed by climate change,
the Arctic will disappear as a natural
habitat within our lives.
In much of the Arctic a reduction of
“
Every country in
the Arctic has
the economic
resources to meet
these costs.
further industrial activities will consist
of less fossil fuel extraction. This has
Industrial activities and oil and gas reserves in the Arctic. the added benefit of encouraging less
Map: CAFF (Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna) 2001. Arctic Flora and Fauna: Status and Conservation. Helsinki:Edita
fossil fuel consumption and, therefore,
Greenland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, they must also be managed that way. less carbon emissions which will feed
the Russian Federation, and the United Transnational agencies and or- back into efforts to limit the effects
States). Establishing networks of pro- ganizations, including WWF, have of climate change. Yet another added
tected areas nationally (or using even an important role to play in fostering benefit is that a cessation of indus-
smaller planning regions) typically the trust and cooperation between the trial activities will help conserve the
results in sub-optimal plans, that is, arctic countries that will be required to traditional livelihoods of those Indig-
more area is required to meet the same make this process successful. A useful enous groups which prefer to persist in
conservation goals and targets. Moreo- beginning would be the establishment that way. There will be costs, though it
ver, species do not carry passports of a transnational team to carry out the remains open to question whether these
or respect national boundaries which systematic conservation planning ex- have typically been exaggerated. In any
also usually do not follow habitat type ercise emphasized earlier. More public case, every country in the Arctic has the
boundaries. An optimal plan for arctic discussion of goals and constraints for economic resources to meet these costs
conservation must be transnational with the entire region would also help move provided that there is political will.
each species or habitat type protected the project forward. Moreover, if oil extraction in Alaska is
wherever it makes most sense to protect typical, the costs of restoring habitats
it. What makes this process even more Mineral exploration in the future after industrial damage far
difficult is that not only must protected and extraction outweighs the economic benefits of cur-
areas be established transnationally, but Next only to climate change, the main rent exploitation.
t h e c i rc l e 2 . 2009 13Re s i l i e n c e
Resilience-building to conserve
a rapidly changing future
Policy makers face a severe dilemma in addressing conservation issues in a rapidly changing Arctic,
says F. S t ua rt Chapin, III. ‘Conservation’ suggests an effort to sustain current species and
ecosystems and ‘keep things the same’. However, climate change is rapidly altering the biophysical
environment of the Arctic. How is conservation possible in such a rapidly changing world?
Are c onservation efforts mented and likely to continue include the Arctic has changed and is virtually
doomed to simply slowing the loss rates retreat of sea ice, earlier snowmelt, certain to continue changing within
of species and ecosystems, or are there warming of permafrost, wetland drying, our lifetimes. How can policy address
proactive approaches to conservation declining flows of non-glacial rivers, conservation concerns, given this likely
that could bring a brighter future? and more extensive wildfires. These future?
The 2007 assessment by the Inter- changes will not occur every year, but
governmental Panel on Climate Change this trend will likely characterize the Building resili ence
(IPCC 2007) con- Arctic in the coming decades. Resilience is the capacity of a system
cluded that there is These environmental changes already consisting of people and nature to sus-
at least a 90 percent affect and will likely continue to affect tain and shape its fundamental structure
probability that hu- many of the species and peoples of the and functioning in the face of perturba-
man activities have Arctic. Walrus, for example, use sea tions such as climate change. Resil-
F. Stuart Chapin, contributed to cli- ice as a feeding and nursing platform. ience approaches advocate a shift from
III is an ecosystem mate warming, and When sea ice retreated north of the reactive policies to prevent change to
ecologist whose re- that global warm- continental shelf in summer 2007, proactive policies to shape change in
search addresses the ing during the last walrus could no longer reach the sea rapidly changing world. Given that
sustainability of eco- half-century results floor where they feed. Six thousand future changes are uncertain, resilience
systems and human from the increased walrus moved ashore near the vil- places a strong emphasis on building
communities in a rap- concentrations of lage of Wainwright Alaska for the and maintaining a multitude of options
idly changing planet. greenhouse gases first time in recorded history. This and that allow flexibility to adapt to change
This work emphasizes such as carbon similar changes in the ecology of other rather than pursuing what might cur-
the impacts of climate dioxide in the at- ice-dependent marine mammals have rently seem like the single best option.
change on Alaskan mosphere. Because sobering implications for conserva- There are four basic tenets to build-
ecology, subsistence these gases remain tion of both the ecological and cultural ing resilience: (1) Sustain the funda-
resources, and Indig- in the atmosphere attributes of the Arctic. Like it or not, mental ecological and social processes
for a long time, this that have shaped the
“
enous communities,
as a basis for develop- human influence on current system,
ing climate-change the climate system
is certain to persist
Six thousand but allow enough
disturbance for the
adaptation plans.
for at least the walrus moved system to adjust to
next half-century. change. (2) Foster
The last time polar ashore near the social, economic, and
regions showed persistent warming of ecological diver-
this magnitude was 125,000 years ago.
village of Wainwright sity to provide a wide
Ecologically important environmental
changes that are already well docu-
Alaska for the first time range of pathways
for potential future
in recorded history.
14 the circle 2.2009Species
change. (3) Experiment with different
approaches to provide opportunities to
learn what works and what does not. (4)
Adapt governance to allow implemen-
Ensuring marine mammal
tation of potential solutions under novel
conditions. conservation in a rapidly
Resili ence and
conservat ion
changing Arctic
These resilience principles suggest
many examples of policies to address Climate change is already having significant effects on arctic
the changing needs of arctic conserva- marine ecosystems and component species, including marine
tion. (1) Reduce human impacts on the
climate system, so the rates of arctic mammals, say Peter O. Thomas and T imothy J. R ag e n.
change will decline, giving species and Research and monitoring, although important, are not sufficient to
ecosystems more time to adapt. (2) conserve arctic marine mammals.
Broaden the range of habitat opportuni-
ties for arctic species and peoples. For
example, if sea ice continues to decline,
create onshore preserves that partially
protect walrus from hunting and preda-
tion. Establish arctic marine reserves
adjacent to terrestrial conservation
areas to protect fish such as salmon that
are beginning to colonize the Arctic
Ocean. Protect stream gravels from ex-
traction to provide potential spawning
habitat for northward moving salmon.
(3) Encourage local community-agency
initiatives to create novel subsistence
arrangements such as community
quotas for newly arrived fish species or
multi-species harvest regulations that
allow hunters to target marine or terres-
trial game species when they are locally
abundant. Develop a knowledge-shar-
ing network to facilitate widespread
learning from such experiments. (4)
Explore new governance arrangements
at a wide range of scales. For example,
create bridging mechanisms between
pan-arctic conservation strategy bodies,
state or federal regulatory agencies, and
hunter-based community monitoring
programs.
Resilience-based stewardship seeks
no explicit structural outcome but
Photo: © Wim VAN PASSEL/WWF-Canon
fosters the underlying ecological and
social conditions required for conser-
vation. By doing so, it opens multiple
pathways for potential adaptation to
new conditions.
Atlantic walrus (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus).
t h e c i rc l e 2 . 2009 15M arine mammal spe cies at cessfully, and a few species (e.g., the lems stem from the difficulty of work-
risk include those that remain in the gray whale) may actually benefit from ing in the arctic environment. However,
Arctic year-round (i.e., polar bear, increasing access to ice-free foraging the larger problem is a lack of resources
walrus, ringed seal, bearded seals, areas. Species by species analysis is and commitment on the part of the
beluga whale, narwhal, and bowhead only one part of the story. The reduction responsible management agencies. It is
whale), and those that inhabit the in sea ice has significant impacts on the conceivable that a number of arctic spe-
Arctic on a seasonal basis (e.g., ribbon, basic arctic marine food web, which is cies have already experienced severe
spotted, harp, and hooded seals, and built on ice algae, amphipods, and polar declines that have gone undetected be-
gray, minke, fin, humpback, and killer cod. Loss of marine mammal habitat cause of inadequate monitoring. Better
whales). may therefore be accompanied by a loss research and monitoring, and funding
Climate change is causing a wide of prey, as well. for such, will be essential if scientists
range of physical, chemical, biologi- The effects of physical, chemical, and managers are to identify and miti-
cal, and ecological biological, and ecological changes gate risk factors effectively.
Dr Peter O Thomas changes. The physi- associated with climate change are However, research and monitoring
has a Ph.D. in animal cal effects are most exacerbated by current and increasing alone are not sufficient to conserve
behavior from the evident in the loss human activities. In various parts of the arctic marine mammals. Absent effec-
University of Califor- of sea ice habitat, Arctic, commercial shipping, coastal tive measures to prevent climate change
nia, Davis. He is cur- which is forcing a development, tourism and oil, gas and by reducing emissions of greenhouse
rently International number of biologi- mineral exploration and development, gases, conservation efforts will be
and Policy Program cal and ecological now pose, or will pose, additional risks insufficient to address the physical
Director at the Marine changes. Species to arctic marine ecosystems and marine and chemical changes that are occur-
Mammal Commission that have relatively mammals. Such activities may increase ring now and will continue into the
where he has been fixed life history the threats of noise, entanglement, future. Nor will those efforts address
since 2008. traits and that are disturbance, contaminants, ship strikes, the biological and ecological responses
highly dependent competition for prey, introduction of of arctic marine life. A great deal of
on seasonal sea disease, and loss of essential habitat. emphasis has been placed on adapta-
ice will likely be All of these changes, taken together, tion, but species (which have developed
Dr Timothy J. Ragen the most affected. will result in cumulative impacts that over evolutionary time scales) simply
is a marine mammal The ringed seal, for may be greater than the sum of individ- may not be able to adapt at the current
biologist with a Ph.D. example, requires ual effects (i.e., synergistic). The end rapid pace of climate change. This is
in Oceanography certain ice and result may be a severe decline of some especially true of species like marine
from the University of snow conditions to species, leading to extirpation in parts mammals that have life history traits
California, Scripps In- build lairs where of their range and, possibly, extinction. that lead to slow recruitment into the
stitution of Oceanog- the females give breeding population.
raphy. He came to the birth to and nurse L ack of commitment At present societies are struggling
U.S. Marine Mammal their pups. Polar Scientists’ ability to detect changes to address the underlying causes of
Commission in 2000 bears depend on in the size of many marine mammal climate change in a meaningful way,
as Scientific Program ice as a hunting populations is limited. To date, such re- an effort which requires fundamental
Director and was ap- platform and are al- search and monitoring efforts for arctic re-examination of our overwhelming
pointed to his current ready being stressed marine mammals have been woefully pattern of ever-increasing consump-
position of Executive by the growing, ice- inadequate. In fact, the uncertainty sur- tion, energy use, economic activity and
Director for the Com- free summer and rounding population estimates for many population growth. Societies can no
mission in 2006. seasonal changes species is so great that only
“
in the accessibility a precipitous decline could
of hunting and den- be detected and documented. The reduction
ning areas. Walruses For this reason, manage-
are able to access certain foraging areas ment efforts often have been in sea ice has
only if they can haul out on ice near implemented only after
those areas. The loss of sea ice is there- populations are already se- significant impacts
by reducing their access to prey. Other
species with more flexible life history
verely depleted and options
for recovery are limited (i.e.,
on the basic arctic
traits and habitat requirements (e.g., the a crisis-oriented approach). marine food web, which
bearded seal) may be able to adapt suc- To some extent, the prob-
is built on ice algae,
16 the circle 2.2009
amphipods, and polar
cod.Body condition
Disease
Parasites
Contaminants
tions establishing the above measures
are implemented and enforced
Sound decision making on the
Stock Structure Harvest conservation of arctic marine mam-
Abundance Health Fishing mals in the face of global change is a
Survival status Oil and gas/mining difficult and complex endeavor (see
Reproduction Shipping figure 1). Efforts to monitor marine
Human
Demography Population Development mammal responses to changing condi-
activities/
dynamics
threats
tions, conduct informative science, and
implement essential protective meas-
Species ures will be confounded by consider-
plan able uncertainty in our understanding
of climate change effects. At the same
Habitat
Behavior time expanding human activities will
Movements
Sea ice (and snow) have increasing impacts on arctic
Foraging Trophic Oceanography marine mammals and the health and
stability of the ecosystems upon which
Breeding dynamics Climate/weather
they depend. Arctic countries are focus-
ing a large number of initiatives and
activities on various aspects of monitor-
Diet ing, basic science, management, and
Prey availability governance, but it is not clear that these
Competition efforts are sufficiently well developed
Predation and coordinated to provide the desired
Figure 1: The components of a comprehensive plan for monitoring the status of a level of protection for the arctic envi-
marine mammal species or stock. From: Simpkins, M., K.M. Kovacs, K. Laidre, ronment. Multi-national and multi-dis-
and L.Lowry, A Framework for Monitoring Arctic Marine Mammals – Findings ciplinary communication and coordina-
of a Workshop Sponsored by the U.S. Marine Mammal Commission and the U.S. tion among these efforts are essential
Fish and Wildlife Service, Valencia, March 2007. CAFF International Secretariat, to understanding how ecosystems are
CAFF CBMP Report No. 16. changing and to launching concerted
and effective responses.
longer afford to ignore the consequenc- ■ constrain activities that might result At all levels, from local arctic native
es our socio-economic choices on our in release of contaminants (e.g., oil, cultures to national and international or-
atmosphere and on our ecosystems and gas, or mineral extraction) ganizations, societies must consider the
must change accordingly. ■ confine shipping routes and impose root causes of climate change – that is,
speed restrictions where those ships how we got to this point – and what our
Resili ence tools pose a risk of colliding with whales future will be if we fail to make hard
At the same time, we have a number ■ impose strict regulations on disposal choices in the near future. Reynolds
of tools that must be used to safeguard of debris that might otherwise entangle et. al., in a 2009 article in Endangered
the resilience of arctic marine mammal marine mammals Species Research, wrote “The value of
populations from the effects of human ■ site coastal activities away from ar- conservation must be elevated from an
activities and give them the best pos- eas important to marine mammals (e.g., aesthetically pleasing concept champi-
sible chances of survival in the face of denning polar bears) oned when convenient, to a fundamen-
long-term climate change. Among other ■ maintain vital migration corridors tal construct of our lives and futures.
things, we can: for marine mammals moving between Without the social will to make such
■ identify areas of essential habitat and feeding and reproductive areas changes, the future of marine mammals
zone human activities to ensure that ■ examine the possibility of develop- looks bleak.” We would extend that ad-
they do not destroy or adversely modify ing vaccines for diseases that will likely monition to the future of conservation
that habitat be introduced into the Arctic generally. We are capable of making
■ manage fisheries to ensure that ■ provide response capacity for emer- the necessary changes – that is not the
they neither take marine mammals as gencies (e.g., ship wrecks, oil spills) to question. The question is whether we
bycatch nor threaten them ecologically, minimize their impact are sufficiently inspired to do so.
such as through competition ■ ensure that treaties, laws, and regula-
t h e c i rc l e 2 . 2009 17You can also read
