The Forestry Market - Forestry investment UK regional markets Carbon offsetting Woodland creation - Savills
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UK Rural - April 2021
S P OT L I G H T
The Forestry
Savills Research
Market
Forestry investment UK regional markets Carbon offsetting Woodland creation
Forestry investment
50%
rise in hectares traded
£205.5m 20,372
UK forestry investment in the Gross area of hectares traded
in the 2020 forest year 2020 forest year in the 2020 forest year
Breaking convention
Forestry now sits at the apex of both climate and land
use policy and continues to attract new interest
This Spotlight on Forestry tracks UK forest not uncommon for forests to sell in excess of existing forests, these sites have few of the
investments during the 2020 forest year 30-70% over the asking price, which ultimately constraints levied on new planting sites, and
(1 October 2019 – 30 September 2020) represents the scarcity value of tradeable therefore offer good opportunities to investors
and shows that interest in the UK forestry forest assets. Asset supply constraints are willing to improve assets over a longer
investment market continues to follow its being matched with an aggressive appetite for timeframe. This is demonstrated by increasing
long-term upward movement. Last year’s managed carbon and timber resources, with prices for secondary or even tertiary forest
Spotlight reported evidence of new buyers owners wanting to report on sustainability property, with the expectation that through
entering the UK forestry market and this metrics of forestry performance in climate focusing on the better soils within a property,
trend has intensified as climate concerns and biodiversity regulation, especially when drainage, species change and improved growth
continue to dominate investment landscapes. considering afforestation projects. The one performance the second rotation over a
The traditional market drivers of capital asset note of warning is that competition is driving potentially smaller net area is likely to
appreciation and rising timber prices have demand in excess of market realities. significantly outperform the first rotation.
not changed, but evolving policy and action The trend towards off-market sales seen For years forest management was about
around the sustainability agenda has shone during the 2020 forest year suggests that the restricting expenditure in a no income
a light on forestry as not only a financial privacy of buyers and sellers and managing environment, but management is now rewarded
investment, but also an environmental one. speculative interest remain concerns. by strong timber prices and capital values, so
This has diversified the investment pool, but additional money spent on scrub clearance,
also focused demand for lesser quality assets for ACTIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT respacing, infill planting, enhanced drainage, etc
re-purposing, and in the more remote areas. As a result of the increasing competition for is not wasted. Improvements in management
During the 2020 forest year the value of the property, there is clear interest in properties don’t just benefit future timber revenues
UK forestry investment market hit a record that were traditionally less popular mainly due though. Microsoft, for example, in its recent
of over £205 million. The main difficulty to location and the expectation of poorer carbon markets report included carbon storage
is predicting where true forestry values lie commercial returns. While never destined to from enhanced forest management projects as
against the market’s return aspirations. It is produce the same output as prime property, as part of its ambitious net positive strategy.
FORESTRY forest hectares sold, however,
Total market area and total market value during 2020, 20,732 hectares
INVESTMENT were transacted, representing a
ANALYSIS rise of 50% compared to the 2019
250 25 (figure 1). Although the number of
The total value of the UK forestry Market value
hectares sold increased during
Value of market transactions (£ millions)
investment market increased from Market area 2020, the demand for forestry still
Market gross area (thousand ha)
200 20
£119 million in 2019, to just over considerably exceeds supply.
£205.5 million. During 2020,
20,372 hectares were transacted AVERAGE FOREST VALUES
150 15
representing a 73% increase in Analysis of our 2020 database
the value of forestry sold and, shows the average gross forest
according to our research, exceeds 100 10 value increased by 17% to just over
the record in 2015 by just short of £11,600 per hectare. All forests
£60 million, when forest sales were have unproductive areas such as
bolstered by a large portfolio sale 50 5 tracks, rivers, lochs, etc, so it is
(figure 1). important to consider the value of
This report focuses on data the productive area. The average
from all mainstream forestry 0 0 price per net productive hectare
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
transactions and, where we are rose by 11% to £15,000. This
aware, off-market or private reflects all sales over 20 hectares
figure 1 Source Savills Research
transactions. While we make every and covers a wide variation in the
effort to record all forest sales, type, location and size of forest
through our market knowledge have become more widespread suggests the value of sales may be sold. However, closer analysis of of
and networks, it is becoming with our analysis showing private as high as £225 million for 2020. the larger commercial forest sales
increasingly clear that the market sales represented 32% of all sales The remarkable increase in the (>150ha) highlights the strength of
is becoming harder to determine during 2020, compared to 11% in overall value of sales can be partly the upper end of the investment
as some sales are not easily 2019 and 7% in 2017. As a result, attributed to a rise in the total area market, with average gross values
identified or verified through although our database reports of forestry transacted across the at £13,100 per hectare and the
available records. total sales of just over £205.5 UK. In recent years, our analysis average net productive hectare
In recent years, off-market sales million, anecdotal evidence found a relatively even number of rising to £18,250.
savills.com/research 2
Regional market
Although the number of hectares sold increased
during the 2020 forest year, the demand for
forestry still considerably exceeds supply
Higher average yields from younger trees
40%
35%
Percentage of spruce trees
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Low yield Medium yield High yield Very high yield
class class class class
Tree age 0-19 years Tree age 20+ years
(second rotation) (first rotation)
figure 2 Source Savills Research
Regional performance
Higher demand for forestry is driving interest in previously unconsidered locations
Average forest values are diverse and factors closely to asset value. Analysis of a forestry benefit from better growing conditions
such as location, accessibility, tree species, portfolio comprising first and second rotation and access to timber markets. However,
average age and timber volume continue to spruce crops indicated that younger timber, during the 2020 harvest year, North
influence the price. However, as demand for less than 20 years old and therefore nearly all Scotland achieved a price of over £16,500
forestry intensifies we are seeing growing early second rotation, recorded a higher average per net productive hectare, which is a
interest in areas that were considered less yield class of 17, compared to a medium yield regional high. North Scotland also reported
attractive in the past, resulting in average class of 13 for timber over 20 years old, which the second largest market share across
forest value growth being strongest across was nearly all first rotation. Furthermore, our Scotland, England and Wales at 28% with
North and Central Scotland. research indicated that 53% of the younger 5,678 hectares transacted.
The growing interest in previously less timber was rated high to very high yield class,
attractive forest properties is also driven by compared to 22% of timber over 20 years CENTRAL SCOTLAND
a realisation that through improvements in (figure 2). This is in part why we are seeing The area enjoyed a significant 24% rise
management techniques, tree stocks, genetics, very strong values paid for younger age profile in the average net productive value to
and precision breeding, the performance of woodlands, with valuations capturing this £16,555 per hectare. Average prices here
forests can be boosted. Improved techniques heightened performance as well as other have been gradually rising and for a second
for tree establishment provide the basis for benefits, such as the smoothed income profile consecutive year recorded the highest number
better performing and faster growing forests. associated with multi-age forests. of forest hectares sold across Scotland,
Foresters are also witnessing longer growing England and Wales.
seasons due to milder UK autumns. NORTH SCOTLAND
Monitoring yield helps forest managers In North Scotland the average price of SOUTH SCOTLAND
understand performance patterns in terms of £8,513 per net productive hectare continues During the 2020 forest year, the average value
growth and productivity, which should link to be lower than more southerly regions that of net productive forest rose by 3% to £15,100
per hectare. This follows a 33% rise in the 2019
forest year and the 2020 data reflects the range
Regional market share and values of prices and properties sold across the region.
The number of hectares transacted reduced
by almost 500 hectares when compared to the
Region Average £ per Number of Market 2019 forest year.
productive hectares share
hectare sold %
ENGLAND AND WALES
● North Scotland £8,513 5678 28% England and Wales continue to benefit
from the highest prices paid per hectare of
● Central Scotland £16,555 7210 35% net productive forest. This year’s analysis
shows a 4% rise in the average value to
● South Scotland £15,100 4000 20%
£17,131. The number of hectares sold in
● England & Wales £17,131 3484 17% England and Wales increased by over 2,000
hectares during the 2020 forest year compared
figure 3 Source Savills Research to the 2019 year.
3
Carbon offsetting
Interest in the UK woodland carbon market has grown
rapidly over recent years, presenting a new potential
income stream for landowners
IMPACT OF CARBON INCOME ON
WOODLAND CREATION MODELS
Model assumptions = 50ha over 80 years
Amenity: England broadleaf
n 100% mixed broadleaf
n Woodland creation and maintenance
grant income
n Carbon price = £25/tonne
n Timber income from selling firewood
= £2,000/year for 40 years
Scotland: mixed
n 50% broadleaf, 50% conifer
n 2 x conifer rotations
n Woodland creation and maintenance
grant income
n Carbon price (from the broadleaf)
= £25/tonne
n Timber yield (from conifer) = £500 tonne/
ha for fell, 40 tonne/ha for thin
n Timber price (from conifer) = £80/tonne
Carbon as a disruptor
for fell, £30/tonne for thin
n Timber income from selling firewood
= £1,000/year for 40 years
Companies concerned about their climate impact are Commercial: Scotland conifer
increasingly looking at woodland carbon offsetting n 100% conifer
The reality of the climate crisis has sparked a risk. The growing demand for accountability, n 2 x conifer rotations
race to net zero emissions across all sectors combined with increasing regulatory baselines n Woodland creation and maintenance
grant income
within the UK. Companies and organisations and the threat of carbon taxes, means that
n No carbon income
seeking to reach zero carbon impact start by companies are starting to address their carbon n Timber yield (from conifer) = £500 tonne/
reducing their procedural emissions and then emissions. This has resulted in a surge of ha for fell, 40 tonne/ha for thin
look to offsetting for any residual emissions. interest in woodland carbon offsetting. n Timber price (from conifer) = £80/tonne
Tree planting offers a nature-based solution for fell, £30/tonne for thin
to carbon offsetting. As trees grow, they CREATING A CARBON OFFSET
sequester carbon through photosynthesis. In order to sell woodland carbon offsets,
This sequestration can be quantified and there are a number of key criteria that Estimated income breakdown over 80 years:
reported as an internal offset or “inset” for need to be satisfied. Firstly, the woodland
land managers, or it can be externally verified creation needs to be verified as a legitimate
and sold to the voluntary carbon market as carbon sequestering project. Within the
an offset. UK, the Woodland Carbon Code is the most
Interest in the UK woodland carbon commonly used scheme to do this. Secondly,
market has grown rapidly over recent years, it is essential that the woodland can prove
presenting a new potential income stream for additionality. This means that the carbon
landowners and generating demand for bare would not have been sequestered in the Amenity: Mixed: conifer Commercial:
broadleaf and broadleaf conifer
planting land. absence of a market for offset credits.
In other words, carbon income needs to be ● Woodland grants ● Woodland carbon sales
DEMAND FOR WOODLAND CARBON a key driver for planting the trees – the project ● Woodland timber sales
There are a number of factors behind the cannot be financially viable without carbon
increasing demand for woodland carbon income. This means deriving carbon income £ Conifer Mixed Broadleaf
offsets. The legally binding net zero emissions from commercial forestry can be difficult
Total
target of 2050 for England and 2045 for to justify. The trees have to be planted on £3,882,210 £2,328,560 £673,535
income
Scotland has put pressure on policymakers new land, and the land manager cannot be
and business to take their carbon impact under an obligation to plant – meaning land Total
£375,100 £457,912 £493,802
impact seriously. This ambition is brought managers cannot sell the carbon from trees costs
to reality through Climate Related Financial grown through restocking (for example, under Net
Disclosure, which is increasingly becoming the conditions of a felling licence). Trees £3,507,110 £1,870,648 £179,733
income
mandatory for all large companies and sequester carbon at different rates depending
financial institutions in the UK, requiring on age and species, therefore woodland carbon (all numbers are based upon theoretical models and assumptions)
them to be transparent about their climate credits can take time to generate. figure 4 Source Savills Research
savills.com/research 4
Woodland carbon
£20.37/t
The average price of carbon from three rounds of England’s
15x
The amount of times the voluntary carbon market needs
Woodland Carbon Guarantee over 2020-21 is £20.37/tonne to scale by 2030 in order to reach net zero in time
Investment potentials Comparative income streams over time
We look at carbon sequestration versus (illustrative – not to scale)
returns from commercially driven forestry
Woodland creation and maintenance grant income
The growing interest in woodland timber remain far more substantial.
Carbon offsetting income
carbon for offsetting and ESG High timber prices and high yields
Timber income
objectives makes forestry an have resulted in exponential value
increasingly attractive investment. growth for commercially driven
Income (£)
Savills Rural Research modelled forestry. It is important to assess
the impact of carbon income on a the relative price of the assets at
variety of woodland creation models maturity, rather than focusing solely
to understand the extent to which on chasing the earlier income streams
carbon is changing forestry market from carbon, which may lead to
dynamics. Our models (figure 4) investment in a lower yielding model.
demonstrate that growing trees for While forestry is not solely about Time
commercial carbon (offsetting) and carbon, the emergence of carbon
growing trees for commercial timber sequestration as a key incentive for figure 5 Source Savills Research
are very different projects in terms of planting is undeniable. As a disruptor
income potential, timescales around carbon boosts a strengthening
return on investment and scheme forestry market, increasing demand Illustrative capital appreciation of each model
design. The need to prove additionality for bare land with planting potential,
means that commercial carbon and and making forestry an attractive Conifer £25000/ha
commercial forestry schemes are asset for its “soft” insetting power. Mixed
increasingly incompatible, as deriving For certain planting schemes such Broadleaf
carbon income from financially viable as lower yielding broadleaf amenity £12000/ha
Capital value (£)
timber production makes additionality woodland, carbon income is becoming £8000/ha
hard to justify. All growing trees a key driver. However, history
sequester carbon, however not all reminds us that focusing on single
£5000/ha £5000/ha
woodland creation models can sell issue drivers has led to regrettable
carbon offsets. Carbon sequestered mistakes in woodland design, such as
can be used as an internal “inset” on monoculture plantations when the
a carbon balance sheet. Figures 5 and sole aim was mitigating income tax. £4000/ha Dip in value is because the impact of traded carbon units on
6 show that although carbon income It is crucial that investors and land the capital valuation of a woodland asset remains uncertain
is an incentive to planting and will managers understand all their drivers Time (80 years)
ease cash flow for certain schemes, at for planting and adopt a long-term,
current carbon prices, returns from balanced approach. figure 6 Source Savills Research
CARBON VALUES
£160
Income from carbon offsets is not linear, as sequestration tCO2e
rates vary depending on age and species of the tree.
Carbon prices within the voluntary offsetting market vary
£75
greatly, from £3/tCO2e to £30/tCO2e. The average price tCO2e
of the mandatory EU Emissions Trading Scheme for April
2020–2021 was £24.41/tCO2e. Research has suggested £50
tCO2e
that carbon should be priced between £40-£100/tCO2e in
order to accurately represent the cost of reaching net zero
by 2050 (2045 for Scotland). For many companies looking 2020 2030 2050
to purchase offsets, the UK provides high quality, verifiable
“charismatic carbon”. Companies value the additional Source LSE, Grantham Institute
benefits UK tree planting can provide such as public
access, biodiversity uplift and species protection. If carbon A report from LSE and
prices rise in line with research predictions, and regulatory Grantham Institute
baselines continue to increase, carbon will endure and grow suggested that shadow
as a dominant force for change within the forestry market, carbon prices consistent
blurring the lines between land use change and viable with net zero would start
investment. However, even with rapid carbon price growth, at £50/tCO2e in 2020,
the high returns from timber are likely to remain the most reaching £75/tCO2e in 2030
substantial income driver for forestry investment. and £160/tCO2e in 2050.
5Woodland creation
100
students graduate from higher
900k ha
of woodland to be created by 2050
education forestry courses each year to meet UK net zero recommendations
Future of forestry
With policy drivers and private market demand promoting woodland creation,
we discuss what it will take to significantly increase the nation’s tree planting
The UK government has committed to use (normally farmland) is the core challenge. before ambitious tree planting targets are
ambitious tree planting, promising to reach Land managers need to be committed to long- taken into account. The Institute explained
an annual target of 30,000 hectares of new term change, which means that most tenanted that “the necessary scale of change must be
woodland creation by the end of its term, land is likely to be excluded. A number of reflected in professional delivery capacity
bringing goals in line with the Committee grant schemes exist to incentivise woodland at all levels and in all settings. It will also be
on Climate Change (CCC) net zero creation, and the rising value of forestry crucial to maintain standards to avoid damage
recommendations. The most recent ratified should be a motivator in its own right. to the environment and reputational risk to
UK figures suggest 13,500 hectares were Land use change to forestry is a complex the sector.”
planted in the 12 months to March 2020, with process and can require environmental There are calls to make forestry and
an estimated similar, albeit slightly higher impact assessments in extreme cases. The environmental studies more mainstream
figure to March 2021. This puts current process is also time-consuming and this has at school level, and build on degree
planting rates at 45% of what is required. But, to be factored into appraisals. As a result, the apprenticeships as an opportunity to increase
exactly what is needed if we are to have any process of developing a scheme can take six capacity in the sector and promote diversity
hope of achieving these goals? months to two years depending on scale, and in the workforce. The need for upscaling and
often the net plantable area is only 40% to upskilling is also a great opportunity to forge
LAND AVAILABILITY 60% of the overall area after deductions for links with the wider land use community and
At the highest level, land availability is the safeguarding. draw in career changers from other sectors,
most significant factor for new woodland especially post-Covid-19.
creation. Not only does land need to be LABOUR/SKILLS REQUIREMENTS Approximately 100 students graduate
available, but it also needs to be suitable for Rapid upscaling is needed if the UK is to meet from higher education forestry courses each
woodland development. its tree planting targets. A crucial part of that year across the UK. Work is being done by
Excluding valuable agricultural land upscaling revolves around the labour and devolved governments to develop plans to
and land under protected designations, skills needed to advise, plant and manage new attract talent to the sector, improve skills
the Forestry Commission has identified woodland creation. A Scottish study (2019) and technical knowledge, support education
approximately 3.2 million hectares in England suggested that in order to meet Scotland’s providers and employers.
as favourable for tree planting. A similar share of the 30,000 hectare commitment, Funding from schemes such as the Green
project commissioned by the Scottish it needed an uplift of 29% of the workforce Recovery Challenge Fund and Scotland’s
government estimated there were 2.7 million over 10 years. Estimates based on the Scottish Kickstart programme may help enable
hectares of land with the “most likely potential research and the planting targets indicate the increased employment in the sector. However,
for woodland expansion” across Scotland. shortfall could be as many as 12,500 people in there are no guarantees. Sustained political
Together this represents an extra 24% of England and Wales. will and government commitments will be
the total land mass in Scotland and England The Institute of Chartered Foresters essential in delivering scale, if the UK is
that is suitable for expanding woodlands. believes there is an urgent need for more realistically going to achieve its net zero,
Converting this land from it’s current primary skilled staff in the forestry workforce even biodiversity and planting targets.
Planting progress across UK 24% Current annual planting
Excluding valuable targets
12
agricultural land and
2019-2020
land under protected Scotland
Number of trees planted (000Ha)
12,000ha
designations, the Forestry
Target in 2020
9
N Ireland
Commission has identified 900ha
an extra 24% of the total England
6
land mass in Scotland 5,000ha
and England suitable for
3 expanding woodlands
Wales
2,000ha
0
England Scotland N Ireland Wales
figure 7 Source Forestry Commission figure 8 Source Savills Research
savills.com/research 6Woodland expansion
The industry requires substantial investment if tree
planting is to be delivered rapidly and at significant
scale – trees don’t grow overnight
NURSERY CAPACITY years are good mast (seed production) years. TIMBER
With increasing planting and re-stocking The Forestry Commission recently
MARKET
demand comes even greater demand for announced a potential Nursery Notification
tree seedlings. Tree nurseries have endured Scheme, intended to inform UK seed suppliers A year on from the start
sustained demand increases over the last and tree growers of forthcoming woodland of the Covid-19 pandemic
few years. The nursery sector has struggled creation and restocking projects, in the and we can start to
to anticipate demand for seedlings in what is hope that it will enable them to prepare tree uncover the ways in which
essentially a time-critical operation. Scaling stock accordingly and ensure supply across the virus has had an
up planting stock needs careful planning given the sector. impact on the end users of
the long term nature of these ventures to avoid The forestry sector has not seen such a the timber market. During
under or over supply. rapid demand for upscaling for many years, the pandemic, many home
Nurseries also need to be ready to adapt to possibly ever. The turn around needed to owners, bored of staring
the impact of a changing climate on seedling reach net zero emissions by 2050 is at odds at the same four walls and
requirements, as there is likely to be a rising with a sector that has always worked on long with time on their hands,
demand for seeds able to withstand increasing timescales. The industry requires substantial have taken to renovating,
disease and climatic pressure and achieve investment if tree planting is to be delivered with sales of home
desired productivity. Even the collection of rapidly and at significant scale – trees don’t improvement and
gardening products
seed for nursery stock is challenging, as not all grow overnight.
growing by almost 50%
compared to the previous
year (Statista 2020). Much
of these purchases will be
Historical woodland creation across the UK
timber-based building
materials. However,
50 despite the increase in
England Wales Scotland DIY, housebuilding was
UK (minimum) target
halted for the first
UK (upper) target
38 lockdown of 2020,
disrupting demand for
Thousand hectares
timber materials on a
larger scale.
25
Finally, Covid-19 has
resulted in a rapid
increase in online retail –
13 in June 2020 online retail
accounted for a record
33% of all retail sales and
91 local authorities have
0
seen parcel deliveries rise
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
by more than 100% over
the past year (Savills
Research). This is likely to
figure 9 Source Forestry Commission, Carbon brief
have resulted in an
increased demand for
both cardboard and
THE SOCIAL POWER OF FORESTRY timber pallets, critical
to a booming delivery
Forestry is a multi-functional asset, with multiple
logistics sector.
ecosystem services flowing from it, whether it be timber,
Ultimately, promoting a
carbon, flood prevention or public access. Woodlands are
high quality, high demand
increasingly being understood and utilised for their
timber market is a key
holistic value. Forest bathing is a practice garnering
part of the solution to
interest. It originates from Japan and focuses on
increasing tree planting
immersing oneself in woodland as a way to relax, cure
across the UK and in doing
anxiety and improve mental health.
so thereby sequestering
There is more and more science emerging into the
more carbon.
effects of leaf shape, the colour green and the sounds and
smells of a forest and the positive impact that this has on
mental and physical health. Some land managers are
leasing spaces within their woodland for forest bathing
courses to take place, or reaping additional value by
creating commercial forest therapy enterprises. As
society increasingly demands the multiple benefits that
flow from forestry, land managers have the chance to
innovate with service lines and opportunities.
7UK Rural - January 2020 UK Rural - February 2021
Regenerative
S P OT L I G H T
Savills Research
Natural Capital S P OT L I G H T
Savills Research
Agriculture
Carbon Offset Market Biodiversity Net Gain Nitrate Neutrality Rewilding Building resilience Core principles Increasing profitability
1_Savills_Spotlight_NatCapital_10.indd 2 15/01/2020 14:56
UK Cross Sector – April 2021 November 2020
Property
S P OT L I G H T
Savills Research
and Carbon
S P OT L I G H T
Savills Research
Rural Logistics
Measuring risk Green real estate Operational challenges Emissions reduction Urban migration Logistics capacity Rural repurposing
Savills Research
We’re a dedicated team with an unrivalled reputation for producing well-informed and
accurate analysis, research and commentary across all sectors of the UK property market.
To view copies of our previous Spotlight publications, go to www.savills.co.uk/insight-and-opinion/
Analysis methodology: Our research analyses our transactional database of forest sales. This database collates data from all mainstream forestry transactions over 20 hectares in area, and
where we are aware, off-market or private sales. While every effort is taken to ensure all transactions are included within the information presented within this publication, it is very likely that
further sales are reported after our publishing. Therefore, this Spotlight on the UK Forestry Market takes into account all new available information.
James Adamson Nicola Buckingham Molly Biddell
Head of Forestry Investment UK Rural Research Rural Research
+44 (0) 1738 447 510 +44 (0) 7807 999 011 +44 (0) 7866 885 240
james.adamson@savills.com nbuckingham@savills.com molly.biddell@savills.com
Savills plc: Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, the UK,
continental Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, India and the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informative
purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every effort has
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