THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa

 
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THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa
IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF
      THE KARIBA DAM

THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA
             RISK RESEARCH REPORT
THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa
Safety and reliability
                                                                                                                                        of the structure

                                                                                                                                                            Political & Economic
                                                                                                                                                            stability
                               Kariba Dam opened
                               1959                                                                                                                        Hydro Electric capacity
                                                                                                                                                           stabilised
                                                                                                                                               Extend life of the dam for a further
                                                                                                                                               100 years
                                                                                                                                               still needs maintenance

                                                                                                                                            Impact
           Badly in need of repair lack of maintenance                                                                                      on other investments &
           56 years later                                                                                                                   projects in the region

                                                                                                                Project delay from

                                                                                                                - Flooding
    Problem identified                                                                                          - Skills
    10 years ago                                                                                                - Governance
                                                                                                                - Funding

                                                                                                                Next 3 years are critical

    Zambezi River Authority (ZRA)
    Manage the dam - Zambia & Zimbabwe

                                                                                                                               Reputation Region
                                                                                                                               - ZRA
    Electricity generation                                                                                                     - Advisers
    Hydro power                                                                                                                - Funders
                           40% of the                                                                                          - Nation
                           region’s
                           capacity

                                                                                                                         Funders
             40%
                                                                                                                         - World Bank
                                                                                                                         - African Development Bank
                                                                                                                         - European Union

                                                                                                                                   Challenging project
                                   Climate change,
                                   Rainfall patterns,
                                                                                                                                   $294,2m
                                                                                                                                   Skills availability,
                                   Flooding, Drought
                                                                                                                                   other projects in the
                                                                                                                                   region

                                                   Electricity
                                                   Revenue                                                                                                 Terrorism
                                                                 Population of the region under review (2011)
                                                                 116 million

                                                                                                                      Botswana - 1,8m
                                                                                                                      Malawi - 14,4m
                                                                                                                      Mozambique - 23,0m
                                                                                                                      South Africa - 50,6m
                                                                                                                      Zambia - 13,4m
                                                                                                                      Zimbabwe - 12,8m

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THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa
Risk - from which perspective?
                      - National, Regional, Investors, Existing industries
                      - Individuals, Communities, Environmental, Flora and Fauna
                      - The World, travel, tourism

          Build-up to event
          -   Rainfall in Zambezi catchment area - past 2 years significant in January
          -   Management of water in Kariba Dam
          -   Release of water through floodgates (if they work)
          -   Dam can’t cope
          -   Warning of potential collapse, evacuation downstream
          -   Media, Cellphone companies, TV, Twitter, Facebook ...
          -   Animals

The Event and the Impact ...
         Tsunami like wall of water released downstream

         4 x bigger than the largest on record
         181 billion cubic metres of water from the full Kariba Dam
         3.5 million lives at risk
         8 hours to reach Cahorra Bassa
         Tete wiped out after 10 hours, population 1.8 million
         Electricity supply lost - 1,500 megawatts in South Africa
         Impact to 30 million people for their basic needs
         Animals - Crocodile, Hippo, Fish
         Lack of water, waterborne diseases
         Food shortages
         Agriculture restricted
         Access to region impacted
         Travel curtailed, border management
         Disaster relief, funding
         Economic impact unknown
         Debt repayment curtailed
         Upstream and downstream impact - Kariba Dam water unavailable

Post Event and the Future ...
2065 - 50 years later
                                                        5 - 8 years to rebuild Kariba and Cahorra Bassa Dams
                                                        Poverty, Food security, on-going support
                                                        Water build up in the dams necessary for hydro power - climate change?
                                                        Other technology options for power
                                                        Funding of replacement dams
                                                        On-going maintenance
                                                        Eventual de-commissioning
                                                        Other dams in the region - what is their status?

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THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa
The Institute of Risk Management South Africa
    Risk Research Report
    Impact of the failure of the Kariba Dam

    Completed June 2015
    Sponsored by Aon South Africa
    Researched and written by Kay Darbourn

    Contents                                                          Page

    About IRMSA                                                         5

    1.      Preface                                                     6

    2.      Foreword                                                    7

    3.      Executive Summary                                           8

    4.      The Kariba and Cahora Bassa Dams and the Zambezi River     11

    5.      The Problem and the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation Project      16

    6.      Risks and Opportunities                                    19

    7.      Risk Management                                            40

    8.      Conclusion                                                 41

    9.      A personal observation                                     42

    10.     Disclaimer                                                 42

    11.     References, links and documents used in this report        43

    12.     Acronyms and abbreviations                                 44

    13.     Support from IRMSA members                                 45

    14.     Support from other entities and individuals                45

    15.     About Aon                                                  47

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THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa
About IRMSA

The Institute of Risk Management South Africa         Offering both individual and corporate
(IRMSA) is the Professional Body for Risk             memberships, IRMSA assists organisations in
Management in South Africa. IRMSA represents          ensuring their employees become professionals
individuals and companies committed to the            and are supported in their growth and
enhancement of the risk management discipline.        development through every stage of their
IRMSA serves aspiring risk practitioners, risk
                                                      career. By becoming a corporate member,
professionals and decision makers in Southern
                                                      entities can be aligned to a professional and
Africa, dedicated to the advancement of the risk
                                                      recognised risk body and can assist, shape
management profession through accreditation,
research, promotion, education, upliftment,           and be at the forefront of risk management.
training, guidance and strong relationships
                                                      Visit our website - www.irmsa.org.za - or
with other institutes and associations.
                                                      give us a call on +27 11 555 1800.
IRMSA is the leading source of information
                                                      We look forward to a very exciting future
and networking opportunities within the risk
management industry, with members from a wide         as the Institute continues on the path as the
range of corporations both from the private and       professional body for risk management in
public sector and is the professional body for risk   South Africa. The IRMSA team strives to offer
management in South Africa as recognised by the       service excellence for members and provide
South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA).        value for the membership fees paid.

                                 Knowledge, Service, Prosper

                                                                      IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   5
THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa
1. Preface

                                Kay Darbourn is a member of
                                the Institute of Risk Management
                                South Africa (IRMSA) Risk
                                Intelligence Committee, she is
                                also a Fellow, Honorary Life
                                member, past President and
                                founding member of the Institute.

    Considerable world-wide media attention was                     provide this work to our members as examples
    given to the possible collapse of the Kariba                    of how the risk report may be used as the
    Dam during the last part of 2014. Most of the                   base for further investigative risk reviews as
    funding has been secured and one high level                     relevant to specific entities and industries.
    executive in an entity that may be significantly
    impacted has said “well, now the funding                        Two of the key risks for the region that were
    is in place, we can relax” but can we?                          considered within the risk report were concerns
                                                                    related to electricity supply in South Africa and
    The Institute of Risk Management South Africa                   the need for improvements to infrastructure, both
    (IRMSA), through its Risk Intelligence Committee,               for new projects and the need to maintain existing
    completed the first South Africa Risks Report                   structures. Research around the Kariba Dam was
    at the end of 2014 and this was published                       chosen as our first review and is presented as a
    in January 2015. The IRMSA Risk Report                          story – we ask the question “what if the Kariba
    highlighted a number of risks for the region                    Dam should fail, what would the impact be?”
    to consider and reflected on the differences
    between IRMSA member’s feedback on key                          Research was focused on the region that might
    risks and those featured in the 2014 World                      be impacted by the failure of the Kariba and
    Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risks Report.                       Cahora Bassa Dams. The report considers some
                                                                    aspects of history, current challenges and some
    As the IRMSA Risk Report was being finalised,                   future concerns but is not intended to be a risk
    the committee suggested that we might take                      assessment – we hope that you will take what
    some of the risks identified within the report                  you can from this report, as it might impact
    and complete “case studies” which go into                       you and your company, and continue with
    more detail on specific areas of the risks and                  managing your specific risks and opportunities.

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THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa
2. Foreword
                           Aon is committed to offering innovative risk solutions to the
                           challenges that companies face around the world. Each new piece
                           of crucial risk information presented places business leaders and risk
                           managers in a better position to mitigate risks in an informed way.

                     The failure or shortage of critical infrastructure is amongst the top 10
                     South African risks identified by likelihood and consequence by both
                     Aon in its Risk Management Survey 2015 and the Institute of Risk
                     Management South Africa (IRMSA) in the first edition of their South
Africa Risk Report 2015. The potential failure of the Kariba Dam is a Southern Africa
regional risk that falls into the infrastructure risk category, but in addition it would lead
to power supply constraints – another key challenge currently impacting the region.

Aon is a corporate member of IRMSA and proud to be part of this case study into the
regional risks and consequences posed by the potential failure of the Kariba dam. This report
shows that all of us in Southern Africa will suffer the impact if this risk materialises and calls
for each of us to take an interest and be as involved as possible in preventing this potential
disaster from happening. The impact will span across the entire risk consequence spectrum,
from significant loss of life, damage to property and the environment, to economic fall-out.

This risk and its potential consequences need to be viewed as part of the existing power
supply and demand challenges in the region and will require a strong commitment from
governments, private companies and financiers to prevent the failure from happening.

By providing this information to our clients and other risk managers in the
IRMSA network, we hope to empower you to make the right decisions
with regards to the risks you and your company may face.

Nico Bianco
Executive: Aon Risk Solutions

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THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa
3. Executive Summary

    On 3 October 2014 the BBC reported that:

    “The Kariba Dam is in a dangerous state. Opened in 1959, it was built on a seemingly
    solid bed of basalt. But, in the past 50 years, the torrents from the spillway have
    eroded that bedrock, carving a vast crater that has undercut the dam’s foundations.

    Engineers are now warning that without urgent repairs, the whole dam will collapse.
    If that happened, a tsunami-like wall of water would rip through the Zambezi
    valley, reaching the Mozambique border within eight hours. The torrent would
    overwhelm Mozambique’s Cahora Bassa Dam and knock out 40% of southern Africa’s
    hydroelectric capacity. Along with the devastation of wildlife in the valley, the Zambezi
    River Authority (ZRA) estimates that the lives of 3.5 million people are at risk.”

    “Can you answer the following questions                 Consider the key risks that might influence
    please”, said the chairman of your board                the likelihood of such a catastrophic
    after hearing the news report…                          event occurring in the next 5 years?

    a.   What will happen if the Kariba Dam fails?          a.   Project Delay

    b.   Will our business and our people                        In December 2014, the critical period
         be impacted and when?                                   was defined as “the next three years” but
                                                                 the full project is due for completion in
    c.   What are the key challenges we are                      2025. Project delay from any cause will
         likely to face should it happen?                        seriously affect the likelihood of failure.
    d.   What’s the timeframe around the                    b.   Climate change, unseasonal
         replacement of the dams, if Kariba fails?               rainfall, drought or flooding
    e.   Will I be impacted, personally?                         Rainfall in the region is key to hydroelectric
    f.   Should we be doing something, and if                    power generation and the economies
         so – what?                                              of the various countries. Revenue from
                                                                 power generation partially funds debt
    Well, can you answer these questions                         repayment in Zambia and Zimbabwe.
    from your company’s perspective?
                                                                 Flooding in the Zambezi basin may
                                                                 put additional pressure on the Kariba
                                                                 Dam necessitating the release of water
                                                                 through the floodgates and may cause
                                                                 a delay in the rehabilitation project.

                                                            c.   Funding for the Rehabilitation Project

                                                                 Whilst funding has been secured for the
               There are many events and causes                  rehabilitation project, increasing costs
               that might lead to the delay of the               as a result of global economic factors or
              rehabilitation project and these are               delays may result in additional costs – will
             reviewed in more detail in this report.             additional funding be available and will
                                                                 debt re-payment become an issue?

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THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa
Chairman, in response to your questions and having read through
the IRMSA Risk Research Report, my immediate thoughts would be:

1.   What will happen if the         2.   Will our business                 3.    What are the key
     Kariba Dam fails?                    and our people be                       challenges we are likely
                                          impacted and when?                      to face should it happen?
a.   The water flow from Kariba
     will continue down the          a.   In terms of our people, we        a.    Communicating clearly with
     Zambezi River, impacting             need to consider those that             our people, board and
     people, property, animals            might be working in the                 shareholders will be key.
     and plant life until it              area and indeed those that
     reaches the Cahora Bassa             may have relatives in the         b.    Our reputation and
     Dam at which stage the               area that will be impacted.             how we manage
     flow will cause this dam             Travel to the region needs              this catastrophe will
     to be breeched and the               to be re-considered as we               support and maintain
     cycle of damage will                 go forward, specifically                our share price.
     continue downstream.                 in terms of health risks.         c.    Alternative sources of
     This will occur over a                                                       electricity and water might
     period of 8 to 10 hours         b.   We can expect our South
                                          African entities to suffer              be costly and scarce,
     until the flow dissipates.                                                   we may need to secure
                                          from a lack of electricity
b.   The reduction in the supply          supply, leading to load                 these in advance.
     of electricity to various            shedding if our energy            d.    Our ability to change our
     countries in the region              supply constraints remain               future business strategies
     will be significant and              as they are currently.                  quickly will be important.
     immediate. Some countries
     rely totally on hydropower      c.   Our investments in the            e.    Decisions around our
     and their economies will be          region may be at risk                   current investments in the
     seriously impacted, both             although property damage                region will need to be
     for industries that rely on          is unlikely outside the                 taken as soon as possible
     electricity to operate and in        flood area. The lack of                 to avoid unnecessary
     terms of revenue generated           electricity supply will                 on-going costs.
     from the sale of electricity.        lead to a significant loss
     South Africa will lose               in production. Lack of            f.    Our corporate social
     1,500 MW of imported                 water may also impact                   responsibility planning may
     power as the Cahora                  some of our operations.                 need to refocus around
     Bassa Dam fails.                                                             how we can support
                                     d.   We will need to re-think                people in the region.
c.   Access to water for                  our new projects in the
     people in the Kariba                 region as the ongoing lack
     and Cahora Bassa Dam                 of electricity and water will
     areas for drinking, food             make these uneconomical,
     and agriculture will be              potentially for five to
     severely restricted.                 eight years. Investors will
                                          also be difficult to tap as
d.   Transportation and access            they will be more focused
     to the areas affected will           on repairing the dams
     be curtailed, alternative            or funding alternative
     routes across the Zambezi            sources of electricity
     will need to be sourced,             supply and potentially
     leading to increased cost            funding disaster relief.
     and time for deliveries.

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THE KARIBA DAM IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF - THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA - Aon South Africa
4.   What’s the timeframe                      5.   Will I be impacted,            6.   Should we be doing
          around the replacement of                      personally?                         something and if so - what?
          the dams, if Kariba fails?
                                                    a.   Chairman, your own             a.   Certainly, we need to
     a.   Assuming both dams are to                      personal reputation may             consider the potential of
          be replaced, funding will                      be at risk if we have not           the failure of the Kariba
          be required and overall                        addressed this potential            dam as one of the risks
          it might take five to eight                    exposure adequately.                that may impact our
          years to re-build the dams,                                                        company and complete the
          including removal of debris               b.   Are you involved with               necessary risk assessments,
          caused by the collapse.                        other companies that might          evaluations and treatment
          It is even possible that                       also be impacted? Are               plans as soon as possible.
          the location of the dams                       you on other Boards, do             Even if the potential
          might need to change                           you have any personal               for such a catastrophe
          and environmental factors                      investments in the region?          is unlikely, we need to
          will come into play.                           Do you have any property            ensure that our planning
                                                         in the region or relatives          is flexible enough to deal
     b.   Rebuilding and re-filling of                   that might be impacted –            with any emerging risk.
          the dams would depend                          you really need to look
          on rainfall within the                         at your own Personal Risk      b.   We need to keep up
          Zambezi River Basin, this                      Assessment separately               to date with how the
          could also take some time.                     from the company.                   refurbishment of the dam is
                                                                                             going and the current and
                                                    c.   You may need to re-look             ongoing rainfall patterns
                                                         the supply of electricity to        in the region as this may
                                                         your home in Gauteng.               impact the time taken for
                                                         Load shedding is likely             the refurbishment and the
                                                         to become more frequent             potential for the likelihood
                                                         and the cost of gas and             of the risk materialising.
                                                         other energy sources may            This should form part of
                                                         increase substantially.             our on-going environmental
                                                                                             scanning for our business.

                                                                                        c.   We might need to
                                                                                             tap into our networks
                                                                                             and relationships and
                                                                                             ensure that this potential
                                                                                             catastrophe receives the
                                                                                             necessary focus across
                                                                                             South Africa, the region
                                                                                             and indeed the world. Let
                                                                                             it not be said that we didn’t
                                                                                             try to make a difference.

              Whether you are a Shareholder, Stakeholder, Board Member, Business Executive,
               Risk Manager or even a private individual – if you live, work, own property or
               have investments in South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique
               or Malawi the chances are that if the Kariba Dam fails – you will be impacted!

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4. The Kariba and Cahora Bassa Dams and the
   Zambezi River

The Zambezi River

The Zambezi River winds its
way through six countries
in Africa, starting in north-
western Zambia and finishing
in the Indian Ocean. The
source lies at about 1,500
metres above sea level in the
Mwinilunga District, very close
to the border where Zambia,
Angola and the Congo meet.

For years the people living along the banks of the     The Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) is shared by eight
Zambezi have depended on it for their survival         countries, Tanzania and Namibia joining those
and have harnessed its great power for electricity.    quoted above. In addition to meeting the basic
                                                       needs of more than 30 million people and playing
From its source it then flows through Zambia,
                                                       a central role in the riparian economies, the river
Angola, Namibia and Botswana then back
                                                       sustains a rich and diverse natural environment.
along the borders of Zambia and Zimbabwe
                                                       The Cooperation in International Waters in
finally discharging into the Indian Ocean
                                                       Africa (CIWA) Zambezi River Basin program of
at its delta in Mozambique. The area of
                                                       the World Bank (WB) has been envisaged as a
its catchment basin is 1,390,000 square
                                                       long-term engagement at country level, among
kilometres which is half that of the Nile.
                                                       sub-regional clusters and across the basin. The
The Upper Zambezi is only sparsely populated           challenge in the ZRB is to promote cooperative
flowing towards the Victoria Falls which are           development and management of international
considered the boundary between the upper and          waters in a way that drives sustainable
middle Zambezi. Below the falls, the river continues   economic growth and improves the livelihoods
to flow, dropping some 250 metres over the next        of the populations that critically depend on the
200 kilometres, before entering Lake Kariba.           sustainable use and management of shared waters.

                                                                       IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   11
Kariba Dam

                                                                                   The dam as seen
                                                                                   from Zimbabwe

     a.   Some 420 kilometres downstream from Victoria Falls, the
          Kariba Dam is the largest man-made reservoir in the world.
          At a height of 128m and with a crest length of 617m, the dam
          has the capacity of holding 181 billion cubic metres of water.
          Designed as a double curvature concrete arc dam, the Kariba
          Dam was constructed across the Zambezi River between 1956
          and 1959. Commissioned in 1960 and opened by Queen
          Elizabeth the Queen Mother, the dam has been central to
          regional energy security and economic development ever since.

          From 1958 to 1961, “Operation Noah” captured and
          removed around 6,000 large animals and numerous
          small ones threatened by the lake’s rising waters.

     b.   The Kariba dam creates Lake Kariba – which is some 280km long at
          full level, 32km across at its widest, 5,400 square kilometres surface
          area and has a catchment area of 663,000 square kilometres.

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c.   The Kariba Dam is central to energy security          done to boost tourism and funds generated
     in the form of hydropower electricity                 towards further development of the area.
     generated for Zimbabwe and Zambia and                 Most of the residents are employed in
     as the Zambezi continues to flow towards              the fishing industry, mainly Kapenta.
     Mozambique it flows into the Cahora Bassa
     Lake and then continues to provide electricity   e.   The dam was designed by Andre Coyne,
     for Mozambique and South Africa. The                  a French civil engineer who designed 70
     Kariba Reservoir supplies water to two                dams in 14 countries. See later in this report
     underground hydro power stations with a               about the failure of the Malpasset dam in
     total capacity of 1,839 MW. The North Bank            1959, also designed by Andre Coyne.
     station is operated by the Zambia Electricity    f.   Since 2010, Tractebel Engineering has been
     Supply Company (ZESCO) in Zambia                      advising the (ZRA) on matters pertaining
     and has an installed capacity of 1,080                to safety, maintenance and satisfactory
     MW. The South Bank station is operated                operation of the dam. The agreement
     by the Zimbabwe Power Corporation                     includes engineering studies and works
     (ZPC) in Zimbabwe and currently has an                supervision of the spillway rehabilitation,
     installed capacity of 750 MW, with projects           construction of an emergency gate and
     underway to increase this to 1,050 MW.                sustainability of the plunge pool.
d.   Kariba Town is a serene home to 46,000           g.   There is a new publication available -
     residents and also a variety of wildlife.             “Whispers from the Depths” a book by Liz
     According to a report from AllAfrica.                 and Mike Wickens and published by Tracey
     com, sadly the town is not benefiting from            McDonald Publishers - this may be worthy of
     proceeds associated with activities on                a read to gain more insight on the building
     Lake Kariba. Residents feel more could be             of the Kariba Dam in the mid-1950s.

                                                                       IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   13
Cahora Bassa Dam

     a.   The Cahora Bassa Dam is in Mozambique                 at Songo in Mozambique and the other
          and is one of three major dams on the                 at Apollo in South Africa. There are two
          Zambezi river system, the others being the            parallel power lines between these two
          Kariba and the Itezhi-Tezhi, the latter on the        stations, covering 1,400 kilometres, of which
          Kafue River, a tributary of the Zambezi.              900 km is in Mozambican territory. Long
                                                                stretches of the power transmission lines
     b.   Dam construction began in 1969 and the                were sabotaged during 16 years of the
          dam was opened in 1974. The dam is                    Mozambican Civil War which ended in 1992.
          171 metres high, by 303 metres wide and
          creates the Cahora Bassa Lake reservoir.         d.   When understanding the impact on
                                                                the local population during and after
     c.   The Cahora Bassa system is the largest                construction, readers may like to refer
          hydroelectric scheme in Southern Africa               to a book “Dams Displacement and the
          with the powerhouse containing five 415               Delusion of Development – Cahora Bassa
          MW turbines. Most of the power generated              and its’ legacies in Mozambique 1965-
          is exported to South Africa, which is done            2007” by Allen & Barbara Isaacman. It is
          by the Cahora Bassa HVDC system, a set                always important to understand the history
          of high voltage direct current lines. The             behind such massive construction projects
          system includes two converter stations, one           and appreciate all sides of any issue.

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The Zambezi River
Authority (ZRA)
The ZRA was established as a body corporate on the
first day of October, 1987 by parallel legislation in the
Parliaments of Zambia and Zimbabwe following the
reconstitution of Central African Power Corporation.

The ZRA operates under the Zambezi River Authority
Act, and is mandated to harness and manage the
Zambezi River waters for socio-economic development
and to maintain the Kariba Dam complex including
any future dams or infrastructure on the river forming
a common border between Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The ZRA will manage the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation
Project together with, Tractebel and other
Consultants, Engineers and Construction entities
as necessary and appointed for the project.

Go to www.zaraho.org.zm for more detail on the ZRA.

                                                            IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   15
5. The Problem and the Kariba Dam
        Rehabilitation Project

     After more than 50 years of providing power for the Southern African
     Region, the Kariba Dam now requires a series of rehabilitation works
     for its continued safe operation. The program is to be implemented over
     the next ten years, taking into account the need to continue operating
     the dam safely with minimal interruptions to power generation.

     The rehabilitation project includes:

     The plunge pool – media comment is that
     this problem was noticed a decade ago
     but no action was taken. Spillway torrents
     have excavated a massive cavern in the
     Zambezi river bed, now 10 times bigger
     and deeper than the original design
     dimensions, that threatens the stability of the
     wall foundations. It is necessary to reduce
     the turbulence from water, discharged at
     8,000 tonnes a second at times, into the
     plunge pool below the dam by enlarging
     the cavern, and allowing the turbulence
     resulting from the spillway discharge to
     be dissipated in a less damaging way.

     The reshaping of the plunge pool calls
     for the construction of a temporary
     cofferdam or barrage. This will enable the blasting and excavation
     of 300,000 cubic metres of rock from the downstream face and
     north and south bank sides of the pool in the dry season.

     It was suggested that the work is only likely to start in May 2015,
     after the rainy season, beginning with the construction of the
     cofferdam, however according to the Zambia Daily mail in March
     2015, the works are set to commence in September 2015.

16   IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015
Kariba’s floodgates are designed to release        Alkali Silicate Reaction (ASR) – an internet
the magnitude of floodwater that occurs once       response related to a Business Day article
in 10,000 years, so if one gate is out of action   in February 2015 “To the rescue of Kariba
for repair and the spillway capacity is reduced    Dam” by ‘JVG’, was interesting:
it is most unlikely to result in any problem,
even with one gate out of action the spillway      http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/
capacity would probably still be enough to         innovation/2015/02/17/to-the-
pass the flood event that occurs once in 1,000     rescue-of-kariba-dam
years. Floods on the Zambezi take some                “The real danger-obscured by this article – is
time to build up so there would be advance            one of Alkali Silicate Reaction (ASR), in simple
warning from rainfall monitoring in the upper         terms this is a chemical reaction that leads
catchment, allowing for time to respond.              to the breakdown of the physical integrity of
This part of the project will take eight to 10        concrete, hence the term “swelling”, although
years to complete, partly because only one gate       descriptive, is incorrect and softens the reality.
can be worked on at a time but also because           Once ASR sets in, the reinforcement’s integrity
the plunge pool excavation work cannot be             is endangered – as oxygen and moisture
done if the lake level is high and the dam is         penetrate the weakened concrete and the
spilling, completion is projected for 2023.           reinforcement corrodes to a point where it
                                                      actually fails. Ultimately – and in the Kariba
Have a look at this video to see one of the           case – most probably – it reached a stage
Kariba Dam gates in action https://www.               where the steel reinforcement is severely
youtube.com/watch?v=qDnkfO3g63s                       weakened, point is – this dam WILL FAIL”.

And this further video gives some information on   Whilst obviously this is a personal opinion, it
the 2009 Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric         seems clear that the issue of ASR has been
power station accident – this did not involve      known for some time and has contributed
the total collapse of the dam but damage           to the current safety concerns.
to the power station was considerable.
Nine out of 10 turbines were damaged               The permanent secretary of the Zambian
or destroyed and 75 people killed.                 Ministry of Finance, Felix Nkulukusa, indicated
                                                   in January 2015 that the danger arose from an
https://www.youtube.com/                           alkali-aggregate reaction in the dam wall, which
watch?v=bfW5MqT7CSA                                could induce swelling within the concrete mass. In
                                                   addition, the spillway sluice gates were no longer
                                                   opening and closing automatically to maintain
                                                   the required water levels, owing to distortion
                                                   and swelling of rusting steel components.

                                                                    IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   17
The project, according to the ZRA will:             The WB are leading the project from the
                                                         funding perspective and their web site
     •    Assist in securing the long-term               provides considerable information. It
          safety and reliability of the Kariba           seems that the rehabilitation will extend
          Dam Hydro-Electric scheme.                     over 10 years as the project closing date
     •    Improve the socio-economic                     is noted as the 28 February 2025.
          security associated with continued             The project development objective from the WB
          operation of the dam.                          perspective is to assist in improving the safety
     •    Benefit the downstream riparian states of      and reliability of the Kariba Dam. There are three
          Mozambique and Malawi by avoiding              components to the project totalling U$294.2m:
          a disaster that would affect the Cahora        •   Institutional and Project
          Bassa Dam and Lake Malawi.                         Management US$70.3m
     •    Through the rehabilitation works, contribute   •   Plunge Pool Reshaping US$99.3m
          to the South African Power Pool (SAPP)
          both in terms of generation capacity and       •   Spillway refurbishment US$124.6m
          stability of the system and continued safe
          operation of the dam.

     •    Benefit the South African
          Development Community
          (SADC) through economic
          gains supported through
          the continued operation
          of the Kariba Dam Hydro-
          Electric Scheme.

     •    Extend the life of the dam
          for a further 100 years

         Map of the project area and
         the Zambezi River Basin

18   IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015
6. Risks and Opportunities
Risk issues and related comments are collated under five
headings, following the categorisation utilised in the IRMSA Risk
Report – South Africa Risks 2015, and the World Economic Forum
(WEF) Global Perceptions Survey. An additional heading “other
risks, challenges and opportunities” was included to cater for
issues that did not appear to fit into the five WEF categories as
these seem to reflect mainly negative impacts or causes.

6.1 Economic Risks

Risks in the economic category include fiscal and liquidity
crises, failure of a major financial mechanism or institution,
oil-price shocks, chronic unemployment and failure of physical
infrastructure on which economic activity depends.

Countries, Industries and natural resources

Botswana is a completely landlocked country in the centre of
Southern Africa. Covering an area of 582,000 square kilometres,
Botswana shares borders with South Africa, Namibia, Zambia
and Zimbabwe. The Kalahari Desert occupies more than 70% of
the country and its capital City, Gaborone is located in the south
east of the country. With a population of just over two million,
the mining sector is the major contributor to the export base
and the government is endeavouring to reduce the vulnerability
arising from the heavy dependence on diamond mining. The
livestock industry, specifically beef and beef processing is another
significant export. Tourism is mainly focused on the Okavango
Delta, the Kalahari Game Reserve and the Chobe National Park.

                                                        IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   19
Zimbabwe occupies 390,757                      Zambia is an entirely land-        Mozambique lies on the east
     square kilometres of land in                   locked country covering            coast of Southern Africa,
     south central Africa, between                  an area of 752,612 square          measuring a total of 799,380
     the Limpopo and Zambezi                        kilometres, with a population      square kilometres in area. The
     rivers and is richly endowed                   of approximately 13 million.       country borders the Untiled
     with mineral resources such                    To the north it is bordered by     Republic of Tanzania, Zambia,
     as gold, chrome, asbestos,                     the Democratic Republic of         Malawi, Zimbabwe, South
     coal, iron ore, nickel, copper,                Congo and the United Republic      Africa and Swaziland. With
     diamonds and platinum. The                     of Tanzania, to the west by        a total population in excess
     land-locked country is bounded                 Angola, to the south west          of 20 million, agriculture is
     by Mozambique to the east,                     by Namibia, to the east by         the backbone of the economy
     Zambia to the north and south                  Malawi and Mozambique and          providing employment for
     west, South Africa to the                      to the south by Zimbabwe and       over 75% of the work force.
     south and to the south west by                 Botswana. Lusaka is the capital
     Botswana. With a population                    city and is believed to be the     According to the International
     of over 14 million, Zimbabwe’s                 fastest growing city in Central    Monetary Fund (IMF),
     economy is dependent                           Africa. Mining and quarrying       strong economic growth in
     on agricultural products,                      account for a large proportion     Mozambique is supported
     mining, industry and cattle                    of Zambia’s merchandise            by major investments in coal
     farming. Tourism contributes                   exports. Zambia is presently the   mining and natural gas sectors
     approximately 5% of GDP                        world’s fourth largest producer    but stricter controls over
     however very little development                of copper and has around           state-run firms is necessary.
     in this area has occurred since                6% of the world’s known            Mozambique is in the process
     1996. At present Zimbabwe is                   reserves. Other contributors       of offering over a dozen
     facing severe socio-economic                   to the economy are industry,       exploration blocks in its
     difficulties and the country is                fishing and agriculture. The       northern region, where US oil
     at high risk of debt distress,                 tourism sector has consistently    major Anadarko Petroleum
     with an unsustainable external                 demonstrated growth due            and Italy’s Eni are already
     debt estimated at US$ 8.4                      to a rich natural heritage.        developing multibillion dollar
     billion at the end of 2014. The                                                   natural gas projects.
     government plans to hold a
     high-level international debt
     resolution forum in 2015 with
     the assistance of the African
     Development Bank (AfDB).

20   IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015
Malawi is a landlocked country located in             The economy of South Africa is the second
southern central Africa along the western part of     largest in Africa, behind Nigeria. It accounts for
the Great Rift Alley of Africa. Covering a total      24% of its gross domestic product in terms of
area of 118,484 square kilometres, Malawi is          purchasing power parity, and is ranked as an
bordered by the United Republic of Tanzania to        upper-middle income economy by the WB, one
the north and north east, Mozambique to the east,     of only four countries in Africa in this category.
south and south west and Zambia to the west.
Lake Malawi is the third largest lake on Africa and   The country’s economy is reasonably diversified
is the area’s principal tourist attraction. Malawi    with key economic sectors including mining,
has an estimated population of 14 million and         agriculture and fisheries, vehicle manufacturing
agriculture is the largest sector of the economy.     and assembly, food processing, clothing
                                                      and textiles, telecommunication, energy,
                                                      financial and business services, real estate
                                                      tourism, transportation and wholesale and
                                                      retail trade. The majority of these industries
                                                      require an adequate and reliable electricity
                                                      supply to maintain performance.

                                                      The high levels of unemployment and
                                                      inequality, together with crime related events,
                                                      are considered by the government and
                                                      most South Africans to be the most salient
                                                      economic problems facing the country.

                                                                       IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   21
Dam construction and management

     a.   The cost of a new dam to replace the Kariba      c.   Whilst reviewing the impact of the failure of
          dam is estimated at US$5bn by a number                the Kariba Dam it has been assumed that the
          of Zambian sources, what is not clearly               dam would be re-built, however with climate
          understood is whether this includes removal           change and rainfall patterns impacting future
          of the damaged infrastructure following the           dam levels and new technologies coming to
          dam collapse. The timeframe around this               the fore, will this necessarily be the solution?
          “new build” is unknown but is likely to be a     d.   Reports from many sources indicate that “if
          minimum of five years with potentially another        nothing is done, the dam will collapse in three
          three years to remove the existing structure.         years” however there are many differing
          The location of any new dam is likely to              thoughts around this, primarily around the
          be far downstream of Kariba at some sites             possible underlying causes that may trigger
          previously identified however environmental           such a catastrophic event. Business Day live
          issues may be a cause for concern.                    notes that in the event of a “catastrophic
                                                                Kariba Dam failure”, economic damage to
     b.   The cost of replacing the Cahora Bassa
                                                                the region will exceed R88 billion and will
          Dam, following a devastating failure of               include the washing away of the Cahora
          the Kariba Dam and the flooding that                  Bassa Dam and the loss of 40% of Southern
          would reach Cahora Bassa in an estimated              Africa’s Electricity capacity”. It is not
          eight hours after this catastrophic event, is         clear how this number was arrived at and
          unknown but is likely to be similar in terms          based on the potential lead time for any
          of the cost and timeframe noted for Kariba.           replacement of electricity generating capacity
          The dams might be repaired or replaced                and the funding requirements, together
          concurrently rather than one after the other          with the impact on the region’s people and
          and funding will be a key challenge.                  economies it seems a rather low number.

22   IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015
e.   Design life of dams – according to                f.   De-commissioning of Dams – referring
     engineering comments, large dams have an               again to engineering comments the question
     indefinite life. Their structure could last as         arises – how do you de-commission a dam?
     long as the pyramids (5,000 years). For as             Looking at Kariba specifically, and 100 to
     long as they hold water someone will have              500 years hence, there are a number of
     to look after them and maintain the spillways          possible scenarios but it is not possible to
     and powerhouse. This implies that designers,
                                                            drain the dam – there is no provision for
     builders and owners must look further
                                                            de-watering; the power station could be
     ahead than they have done in the past and
                                                            shut down, and the spillway gates opened
     ensure that their dams can be maintained
     indefinitely or, if necessary dismantled.              but this would mean the gates would soon
                                                            need repair and the plunge pool would
     Large dams usually have an “economic life”             need evacuation downstream; the dam
     of 50 or more years, reaching the end of               could be blown up, but the water flow would
     that “life” when they have paid themselves             then destroy Cahora Bassa and flood the
     off – if they silt up later it is seen as no           Zambezi valley. The cost of de-commissioning
     great loss in present value terms. The Kariba
                                                            is unknown but should include bringing the
     rehabilitation project is said to increase the
                                                            area back to as near pristine condition as
     life of the dam by a further 100 years.
                                                            possible. Again this would need funding.
     Silting may also be a concern for the
     Kariba dam which is said to be less than          g.   Looking to the future, it would seem that the
     efficient. When silting occurs the bottom              Kariba dam, and indeed most dams within
     outlets are first to be blocked followed               the region, will need adequate maintenance
     by the power intakes. Finally silt fills the           for a significant period of time, was this
     reservoir to spillway level and as it is heavy,        considered in the original project planning
     the load on the dam is much increased.                 or was the objective shorter term focused?

                                                                        IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   23
Electricity & infrastructure

     a.   Deloitte’s report on Sub-Saharan Africa             Six disruptors were highlighted:-
          (SSA) Power Trends makes interesting
          reading. The report indicates that low              i.     African economic growth,
          levels of infrastructure and power supply                  transformation and rising demand
          are a deterrent for many wanting to                 ii.    A shifting energy mix giving rise
          invest across various sectors in Africa. The               to new capital and players
          development of large capital projects relies
                                                              iii.   Changing role and type of customers
          on robust planning, reliable funding, and
          resilient operating structures together with        iv.    Renewable technologies
          skills development. The team note that
                                                              v.     Changing market structures
          unreliable, insufficient and costly power
                                                                     and dynamics
          generation and distribution across the
          African continent has arguably been the             vi.    Smarter grids and systems,
          Achilles heel to higher and more inclusive                 smarter utilities
          growth and socio-economic development          b.   In December 2014, the SAPP suggested
          of the region. Infrastructure stock levels          that the region could experience savings
          have impeded rather than facilitated                of over US$48 billion if all the current
          growth and development although this is             electricity generation projects in the
          changing rapidly. The report suggests that          pipeline are implemented in a coordinated
                 “A disruption displaces an existing          fashion. This would mean synchronizing the
                 market, industry or technology and           implementation of various planned energy
                 produces something new and more              projects with expected capacity of 27,881
                 efficient and worthwhile. It is at           MW and the current completion date in
                 once destructive and creative”               2018. There appears to be little chance of
                                                              this occurring as national plans seem to
                                                              take precedence over regional plans.

24   IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015
c.   Zambia relies on hydro power for more than           d.   Mozambique – The entity that operates the
     90% of its electricity, according to Bloomberg            Cahora Bassa dam on the Zambezi River –
     Business. Water levels have declined at Lake              Hydroelectric de Cahora Bassa (HCB), advises
     Kariba and Kafue Gorge plants which are                   that a further hydro power station with the
     the source of three-quarters of that supply.              capacity to produce 1,045 MW is to be built
     Load shedding will increase during 2015                   once funding is agreed. Construction will take
     to approximately 600 MW, almost 30% of                    six years and will add to the current 2,075
     available capacity, directly due to reducing              MW capacity. The country currently supplies
     water levels. Two new plants are expected to              power to neighbouring South Africa, Namibia,
     provide up to 420 MW by the end of this year.             Zimbabwe and Swaziland and is likely to
                                                               extend this to include the DRC and Tanzania.
     Lusaka’s energy demand has grown at 6%
     a year over the past 10 years, with demand                The existing HCB dam was built by Portugal,
     outstripping installed capacity. Engineering news         South Africa and Germany during colonial
     reports that Aurecon will provide engineering,            times. A few years ago, the dam was
     design and construction supervision services              transferred to the Mozambican state for
     for ZESCO for a US$200m WB funded Lusaka                  US$700m, following lengthy negotiations
     transmission and distribution rehabilitation              between Maputo and Lisbon.
     project, due for completion in 2019.
                                                               Recently HCB has announced it will spend
     Zambia’s Copperbelt Energy Corporation                    about US$14m on protecting transmission lines
     (CEC) is the largest supplier of power to mines           against the effects of flooding. This will involve
     in the southern African nation. Reliability               strengthening the pylons on or near river banks
     of supply for mining customers seems to be                to be able to withstand the forces of waters
     a major issue with a number of blackouts                  during peak moments of a flood. On the 12th
     occurring each year. CEC is in talks with                 January 2015 a massive flood on the Licungo
     Old Mutual over a possible US$205m hydro                  River, in the central province of Zambezia
     power station on which work has already                   swept away 10 pylons on the transmission lines
     started with completion anticipated in 2018.              carrying Cahora Bassa power to the north of
                                                               the country, leaving parts of the region without
     Impacting both Zambia and Zimbabwe, the                   power for four weeks. HCB power is carried
     Batoka Hydro Electric scheme is expected                  to South Africa along two high voltage direct
     to go ahead through the ZRA. US$6m has                    current lines each running for about 1,400
     been released by the WB for the feasibility               kilometres and with a total of 2,000 pylons.
     study. The project is expected to start in
     2016 with completion in 2021. Go to http://               Other projects under review include:
     victoriafalls24.com/blog/2015/01/26/latest-
     update-batoka-dam-project/ for more information           •   The Lupata Hydro Electric facility – 416 MW
     and to see some of the risks highlighted.                 •   The Boroma Hydroelectric dam – 210 MW
     A recent news report from the Zambia Daily                •   The Mphanda Nkuwa dam – 1,500 MW
     Mail talks about the knock-on impacts of load
     shedding “Apparently the only people who are              •   Lurio Hydroelectric plant – 180 MW
     enjoying load shedding are call-girls who are
     taking advantage of the situation to provide              •   Alto Malema Hydroelectric dam – 60 MW
     outdoor flings to their clients in dark corners of
     the streets” and “Some electricity consumers
     are considering temporarily stopping paying for
     their DStv bouquets until load shedding is over”.

                                                                           IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   25
e.   Zimbabwe – the power utility ZESA has a        a coal power station. If the water supply
          number of challenges to contend with, the      for this proposed station is not available,
          most recent related to the declining water     the plant will be unable to produce.
          levels in the Kariba Dam, which have led to
          a 400 MW reduction in generation power         Engineering news in April 2015 reported
          and then a fault at the Hwange Power Station   that Zimbabwe plans to build new power
          which occurred in June 2015, apparently        stations to generate 3,500 MW at a cost
          related to the aging plant and the need for    of US$5 billion according to the national
          refurbishment. With only 1,000 MW available    power company ZPC. Where funding for
          and a demand of 2,000 MW, Zimbabwe             this construction will come from is not clear
          has been experiencing crippling power          as lenders like the IMF and WB have said
          shortages for a long time, allAfrica.com       they will only resume lending to the country
          comments that “the country will endure its’    once it clears its debts with the global
          darkest winter season in history this year”.   lenders. However The Southern Times
                                                         newspaper commenting on the project to
          Unfortunately the power crisis is likely       increase capacity at the South Kariba hydro
          to lead to increasing unemployment in          power station by 300 MW notes that this
          the country together with increasing           upgrade has been facilitated by a US$319m
          poverty levels, with job seekers potentially   loan from China. It further states that this
          seeking relief across adjacent borders.        deal is a clear example of Zimbabwe’s
                                                         “Look East” policy which was adopted
          RioZim, which mines gold, diamonds and         after falling out with Western powers.
          coal in Zimbabwe wants to work with state-
          owned power utilities in South Africa and      A decline in commodity prices with a
          Namibia to build a 1,400 MW electricity        strengthening of the US dollar makes
          plant near its Sengwa coal fields and export   debt unsustainable in many economies.
          power to Eskom and Nampower. Coal for          Zimbabwe’s massive external debt,
          the plant will come from the company’s         amounting to 40% of GDP, remains a sign
          coalfields in northern Zimbabwe, while it      of vulnerability and other countries in the
          will draw water from Lake Kariba, 85km         region, such as Mozambique and Tanzania,
          to the north. So, whilst we look at options    are racking up debt to fuel growth. Debt
          to deal with the power supply problem,         servicing will squeeze public expenditure
          utilising coal as the fuel source, we need     for many years within such economies, what
          to appreciate the amount of water to run       can we learn from the crisis in Greece?

26   IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015
f.   South Africa – Eskom Holdings (Eskom) is a State owned company
     that generates, transports and distributes approximately 95% of South
     Africa’s electricity, making up 60% of the total electricity consumed
     on the African continent. Eskom is the world’s eleventh largest
     power utility in terms of generating capacity, ranks ninth in terms of
     sales, and boasts the world’s largest dry-cooling power stations.

     Eskom sells power directly to some 6,000 industrial, 18,000 commercial,
     70,000 agricultural and 3 million residential customers. It owns
     and operates a number of coal-fired, gas-fired, hydro and pumped
     storage power stations, as well as one nuclear power station.

     Eskom’s 26,000 kilometres of transmission lines span the
     entire country and extend into most SADC countries.

     The situation within South Africa in terms of available electricity
     supply has been of concern for a number of years with the Utility’s
     reserve margin at far less than optimum levels. Two major new coal-
     fired power stations are in the process of being built but delays have
     resulted in significant cost increases and the need to utilise Open Cycle
     Gas Turbines on a regular basis or to load-shed customers. Increasing
     costs of supply need to be met by consumers, however the National
     Energy Regulator (NERSA) has not allowed the Eskom recommended
     tariff increases in the past few years. This has led to a downgrading of
     Eskom by credit rating agencies and an increase in the cost of debt.

     A lack of maintenance on existing stations within the Eskom
     fleet has led to a less than efficient fleet with unplanned
     breakdowns, further reducing the available capacity.

     A long term agreement for the importing of power from HCB accounts for
     1,500 MW of the Utility’s total available capacity and the failure of the
     Kariba Dam would have a serious effect on Eskom’s ability to continue
     to provide sufficient power to their customers. If we look at two of the
     units of one of the new stations being more or less equivalent to the loss
     of the imported power from Cahora Bassa, it is clear that such an event
     would be severe for all South Africans, let alone the rest of the region.

g.   Deloitte Corporate Finance experts comment that inadequate infrastructure
     remains a major obstacle towards Africa achieving its full economic
     growth. Meeting the demand for key infrastructure has been identified as a
     priority creating an exciting opportunities for global investors who need to
     look past the traditional Western view of Africa as a homogeneous block
     and undertake the detailed research required to understand the nuances
     and unique opportunities of each region and each individual country.

      Is there an opportunity perhaps for the risk fraternity to consider a
     new type of risk assessment – Regional Risk Management – looking
          specifically at the systemic risks impacting the entire region?

                                                             IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   27
h.   Creamer Media’s Engineering News                 A WB “Chair Summary” related to a meeting
          reports on the WEF Global Strategic              held 9 December 2014 and considering
          Infrastructure Initiative (ASII) which           the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation Project,
          hopes to draw billions of dollars to             although not an approved record, states:
          boost infrastructure projects in Africa.
                                                               “Directors acknowledged that a
                “Africa has a US$100 billion a year            potential catastrophic failure of the dam
                infrastructure gap. It needs to spend          would result in devastating regional
                U$1.5 trillion in the next 15 years to         flooding, significant loss of human
                provide water, electricity, sanitation,        life, and unprecedented economic
                roads, rail and economic growth                damage downstream in the Zambezi
                necessary for 80 million young people          River. They also acknowledged the
                in Africa to get jobs every year”.             complexity and risks of the proposed
                                                               undertaking and underscored the
     i.   According to a report in Business Day Live,          importance of building strong capacity
          among the significant external activities            and sound institutional arrangements
          likely to cause concern on the integrity of          for success. The importance of close
          the dam are the drill and blast operations           monitoring and taking appropriate
          at the Kariba south bank during the project.         precautions to mitigate environmental
          Such activity causes vibrations and shock            and social risks was strongly urged”.
          waves which must be capped at certain
          thresholds. It has been recommended that         More details are available for those
          all drill and blast operations taking place at   interested in further research on the
          and near the dam are monitored, logged,          WB web site – www.worldbank.org.
          analysed and controlled according to
          recommendations for the Kariba Dam.              It seems evident that failure to obtain funding
                                                           to rehabilitate the Kariba Dam, and of course
     j.   With all of the construction related             to actually ensure the project is completed,
          projects in progress or anticipated in the       would have such an impact on other projects
          region, competition for skills, specifically     in and around the Zambezi that this specific
          engineering and consulting expertise, is         project surely had priority in terms of funding.
          likely to be a significant challenge.
                                                           Revenue generated for Zambia, Zimbabwe
     k.   The total cost of works is estimated at          and Mozambique specifically around
          US$294m. The Governments of Zambia               electricity generation and the reduction in
          and Zimbabwe have mobilised funding              revenue if hydroelectric power from the
          from the AfDB, the European Union (EU),          Zambezi is reduced or eliminated for a
          the Government of Sweden and the WB              significant period would severely impact
          to support the ZRA in the project.               the economies of these countries – could
                                                           it also lead to failure to repay existing
          View Marcus Wishart from the WB as he            loans and impact further investment?
          talks about the project: https://www.youtube.
          com/watch?v=hXclsm2wll4&feature=player_
          embedded

28   IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015
6.2 Environmental Risks

Risks in the environmental category include both natural disasters, such as earthquakes
and geomagnetic storms, and man-made risks such as collapsing ecosystems, freshwater
shortages, nuclear accidents and failure to mitigate or adapt to climate change.

a.   If the tidal wave of water from the collapse      d.   Climate change in SADC – The
     of the Kariba Dam reaches Mozambique                   Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
     and the Cahora Bassa dam, it is likely to              Change (IPCC) provides good information
     overwhelm this dam releasing another 51                on this topic. Climate modellers indicate
     billion tons of water, making the spillage four        further increases of mean temperatures
     times bigger than the largest on record.               between 2 and 4.5 degrees centigrade
                                                            in the next 50 to 100 years, these
b.   Flood Disaster Management. Until the                   variances are expected to be greater in
     Environmental and Social Impact Assessment             the summer than in the winter season.
     (ESIA) and Environmental and Social
                                                            According to the AfDB Project Appraisal
     Management Plan (ESMP) documents are                   Report, the IPCC has categorised the
     available it would be unfair to comment on             Zambezi as the river basin exhibiting the
     whether sufficient attention has been given to         “worst” potential effects of climate change
     the downstream flood potential and impact.             among 11 major African basins, due to the
     There is no doubt that a catastrophic failure          resonating effect of increase in temperature
     of the Kariba Dam would have a long term               and decrease in rainfall. The Zambezi runoff
     impact on the people of the area, the flora            is highly sensitive to variations in climate,
     and fauna and agriculture which is a key to            as small changes in rainfall produce large
     the economies of most of the riparian states.          changes in runoff. Over the next century,
                                                            climate change is expected to increase this
c.   New Civil Engineer International Magazine              variability, and the vulnerability of the basin
     reports that a Kariba collapse would be                and its hydropower dams to these changes.
     a repeat on a massive scale of the 1959
                                                            The future picture for Southern Africa’s
     collapse of the Malpasset dam in the South
                                                            climate is increasingly clear, based on
     of France, which was also the work of                  observed trends over the past century
     Andre Coyne who designed Kariba. The                   and increasing confidence in the range
     Malpasset dam was completed in 1954, but               of climate change scenarios developed.
     on 2 December 1959 it collapsed releasing              Overall the Zambezi will experience
     a 40m high wall of water that killed 423               drier and more prolonged rough
     people. The villages of Malpasset and                  periods, and more extreme floods.
     Bozon were completely destroyed. Heavy
                                                            In considering the aspect of climate
     rain was suggested to be one of the causes
                                                            change related to this report, it is clear
     and the water levels behind the dam were
                                                            that the loss of water in both the Kariba
     unusually high, delays in opening the flood-           and Cahora Bassa dams, should Kariba
     gates were also noted as an issue but the              fail, will take some time to build up again
     main cause was held to be a tectonic fault             to current volumes. If we consider the
     in the underlying gneiss. Coyne never                  time to repair or replace these two dams,
     recovered from the shock of the disaster and           the impact both up and downstream
     died soon afterwards at the age of 69.                 may be significant for five - 10 years.

                                                                        IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015   29
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