THE REFLEX PROJECT EMP-E 2019 PLENARY SESSION: PATHWAYS AND SCENARIOS TOWARDS THE PARIS AGREEMENT/KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE LCE 21 PROJECTS - Energy ...
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EMP-E 2019 PLENARY SESSION: PATHWAYS AND SCENARIOS TOWARDS THE PARIS AGREEMENT/KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE LCE 21 PROJECTS THE REFLEX PROJECT TU Dresden Project Coordinator Prof. Dr. Dominik Möst Brussels, 8th October 2019
REFLEX - Analysis of the European energy system under the
aspects of flexibility and technological progress
Objective: Analyzing and evaluating the development towards a low-carbon energy system
with focus on technological progress and flexibility options in the European Union
Methodology: Combining three different research fields: Experience Curves, Energy System
Modelling and Life Cycle Assessment (social and environmental)
Duration: May 2016 – April 2019
Financing: European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant
agreement No 691685
Website: www.reflex-project.eu
3
TU Dresden
Dominik Möst 08/10/19
How will the European energy system look like? How much flexibility is
required? – possible scenarios for shaping the European energy system
Fossil and Existing System Mod-RES High-RES European
nuclear based Scenario Centralized energy system
energy system (central) Scenario is based on
100%
GHG emission reduction: GHG emission reduction: renewable
CENTRALIZED
1400
energy sources
• project result • ~ -80% in 20502)
installed capacity of intermittent RES [GW]
1200 (explorative approach)
RES-share compared to RES-share compared to
1000
EU today’s electricity EU today’s electricity
demand (~ 3,000 TWh) : demand (~ 3,000 TWh) :
800
• ~55% in 20501) • 80-90% in 2050
600 • trend to centralized
wind power
400
High-RES
Conventional
200 Decentralized Renewable
Scenario
0
DECENTRALIZED
GHG emission reduction:
2014 Mod-RES High-RES High-RES
Dec Cen Focus in • ~ -80% in 2050
2050 REFLEX RES-share compared to
EU today’s electricity
wind onshore wind offshore demand (~ 3,000 TWh) :
pv roof top pv ground mounted • 80-90% in 2050
• trend to decentralized
solar power
1) EU Reference Scenario 2016 (Capros et al. 2016) 2) EC Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050 (COM 2011/0112)
Within the High-RES scenarios two possible development paths of the
European energy system are analysed by applying different normative scenario
assumptions
More decentralized TODAY More centralized
• Stronger deployment of PV • Stronger deployment of wind
rooftop and battery systems onshore and offshore
• Individual energy sources, small • Large scale centralized energy
scale sources
• High participation on local level • Heat supply on a centralized level
(DSM, multi-modal transport) (e.g. more higher share of district
• Decentral onsite hydrogen supply heating)
• Heat supply on individual level • Hydrogen production in larger
plants with distribution by
trailers and pipelines
2050
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TU Dresden
Dominik Möst 08/10/19
Scenarios as narratives: The policy dilemma
Scenarios give orientation for todays decisions
=> (Todays) Present Futures (“Gegenwärtige Zukünfte”)
=> But not Future presence (aber nicht “Zukünftige Gegenwarte”)
Business as usual
Indicator (e.g. > 5°C)
Explorative
(e.g. CO2-Emissions)
scenarios
„New policy“
(e.g. 3°C)
The gap
… policy intervention
… where is the miracle?
Normative
scenario
Definition of
target year? „Target achievement“
(e.g. 1.5°C)
Today Future? TimeEU CO2eq emission reduction across all sectors – the linear impacts
EU28 total direct emissions from transport, industry, residential, electricity and heating sector
5.000
4.500 Heating
4.000
21% 21% 21% Electricity
3.500 26%
Emissions [Mt-CO2eq]
3.000 35% 35% 34% Tertiary
40%
2.500 47% 54%
55% Residential
2.000
64% 64%
1.500 Industry
1.000 81% 80%
Transport
500
0 Total GHG
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 Emissions 1990
Mod-RES High-RES dec High-RES cen
CO2 emissions across all sectors in the EU (results from D4.3)
• Total EU GHG emissions in 1990 accounted 4,290 Mt-CO2eq (EEA 2016)
• Overall emission reduction of 80% in decentral and central scenario can be achieved (total emissions = 860 Mt-CO2eq in 2050)
• Transport, Industry, Tertiary and Residential reducing emissions by approx. 69% in decentral and central scenario in 2050
• Electricity and heat sector decrease emissions by approx. 91% in High-RES scenarios in 2050
• High CO2 prices of at least 150 EUR/tCO2 are necessary to achieve -80% GHG emission reduction target
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TU Dresden
Dominik Möst 08/10/19To achieve the ambitious decarbonisation targets, the role of the energy
demand side becomes crucial
❶ Industry, Residential and Tertiary Sector ❷ Transport Sector ❸ Electricity and Heating Sector ❹ Environmental and Societal Impacts
AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGIES NOT SUFFICIENT FOR DECARBONISATION OF EU INDUSTRY
• Significant process innovations required
(CO2-free secondary energy carriers, innovations in material efficiency, circular economy)
DIRECT ELECTRIFICATION AND HYDROGEN-USAGE IS CRUCIAL IN INDUSTRY
• New uses of electricity for process heat in all sectors (e.g. glass electric furnace, steel electrolysis)
• RES based hydrogen as energy carrier and feedstock
RES Hydrogen is used in the steel industry with H2 direct reduction replacing oxygen steel
Feedstocks are dominated by RES hydrogen for the production of ammonia, methanol & methanol-based ethylene
(384 TWh H2 -> 549 TWh electricity)
SECTOR COUPLING CRUCIAL
• Power to heat, Power to H2, local area networks using heat
pumps, regeneration of heat sources
RETROFITTING THE BUILDING STOCK
• Significant increase of either more in-depth refurbishment or
of refurbishing more buildings
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TU Dresden
Dominik Möst 08/10/19To face the continuous growth of passenger and freight transport demand,
strong and timely responses are required
❶ Industry, Residential and Tertiary Sector ❷ Transport Sector ❸ Electricity and Heating Sector ❹ Environmental and Societal Impacts
Main drivers of the BEV/PHEV diffusion
• Soon competitive prices due to worldwide production of
batteries (learning effects)
• Charging infrastructure and increased ranges most likely
• (Strong market-driven) phase out of pure Internal Combustion
Engine cars by 2040 (due to learning effects and CO2-prices)
Main drivers of the FCEV diffusion (trucks and others)
• Alternative fuels (biofuels or synthetic fuels) based on
electrolysis and additional treatments (Power-to-Gas and
Power-to-Liquid) for modes for which mature low-emission
drive technologies will not be developed in the near future (i.e.
aviation and ships)
• Reliable H2 refueling infrastructure deployment for trucks along motorways including sufficient H2 supply or on
site production are necessary
• CO2-free provision of H2 is important, but very challenging (very high CO2 prices necessary)
• Policies increasing costs for diesel trucks
(e.g. stricter CO2 standards , emission based registration taxes and road tolls)
• R&D and subsidies for acceptable prices
Source: ISI, TRT, KIT-IIP
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TU Dresden
Dominik Möst 08/10/19The electrification of demand side sectors and market designs as a coordinated
EU CRM are important measures for the EU energy system transition
❶ Industry, Residential and Tertiary Sector ❷ Transport Sector ❸ Electricity and Heating Sector ❹ Environmental and Societal Impacts
PATHS TOWARDS A LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY AND HEAT SUPPLY
• Strong electricity demand increase due to electrification of
sectors
• Back-up capacities still relevant, switch to less carbon intensive
fuels has to be enforced
• At high CO2 prices (>70 EUR/tCO2) CCS is an important
decarbonisation option
• Strong RES extension is a no regret option as higher RES shares
significantly reduce fossil fuel based generation
• Increase of heat storage to provide flexibility of district heat
generation units
• Biomass can play an important role in substituting fossil fuels
in district heat generation
EU COORDINATED ENERGY POLICIES PREFERABLE
• Coordinated RES-E and grid extension (including trade)
• Coordinated capacity markets
Source: TUD, AGH, KIT-IIP
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TU Dresden
Dominik Möst 08/10/19Detecting environmental and social impacts in an early stage of development
– from local to global issues
❶ Industry, Residential and Tertiary Sector ❷ Transport Sector ❸ Electricity and Heating Sector ❹ Environmental and Societal Impacts
GENERAL
• New challenge land occupation
• Non-energetic resources gain in importance
(e.g. lithium, cobalt, …)
• Demand for natural gas slows the pace to minimize ozone
depletion impact (and CO2 reduction), due to the high risk
of leakage in the pipelines
• Social risk levels show an increasing trend in all
categories for 2050 scenarios (e.g. child labour, fair
salaries, forced labors, workers rights)
• Substitution of conventional fossils to biofuels not
necessarily an improvement from environmental and
social perspective
• Bioethanol and biokerosene are main drivers for land use
and eutrophication.
Source: KIT-ITAS, KTH, AGH
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TU Dresden
Dominik Möst 08/10/19Selected Publications
TWO BOOK PUBLICATIONS RESULTING FROM THE REFLEX PROJECT
• Book on “Technological learning in the transition to a low-carbon
energy system”
• Focus on experience curves and implementation in energy system
models
• Contributed volume published with Elsevier (end of 2019)
• Book on “The Future European Energy System - Flexibility Options and
Technological Progress”
• Sectoral-based Reflex analyses and results considering technological
learning and social as well as environmental life cycle assessment
• Contributed volume published with Springer (end of 2019)
LATEST PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL CONTRIBUTIONS
• Xu et al. (2019): An Environmental Assessment Framework for Energy
System Analysis (EAFESA): The method and its application to the
European energy system transformation. In: Journal of Cleaner
Production, In Press.
• Bubitz et al. (2019): A survey on electricity market design: Insights from
theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration
mechanisms. In: Energy Economics, pp 1059-1078.
• Klingler, A.L. (2018): The effect of electric vehicles and heat pumps on the
market potential of PV + battery systems. In: Energy 161, 1064 – 1073.
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TU Dresden
Dominik Möst 18/06/19Thank you! Questions? Prof. Dr. Dominik Möst TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics dominik.moest@tu-dresden.de www.reflex-project.eu Brussels, 8th October 2019
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