Time's Up! Dating the Minoan eruption of Santorini - Malcolm H. Wiener
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Time’s Up!
Dating the Minoan eruption of Santorini
Acts of the Minoan Eruption Chronology Workshop,
Sandbjerg November 2007
initiated by
Jan Heinemeier & Walter L. Friedrich
Edited by
David A. Warburton
Monographs of the Danish Institute at Athens
Volume 10
3© Copyright The Danish Institute at Athens, Athens 2009 Time’s Up! Dating the Minoan Eruption of Santorini Monographs of the Danish Institute at Athens Volume 10 General Editor: Erik Hallager Graphic design: Erik Hallager Printed at Naryana Printed in Denmark on permanent paper conforming to ANSI Z 39.48-1992 The publication was sponsored by: The Faculty of Science, University of Aarhus Aarhus University Research Foundation ISBN: 978-87-7934-024-4 Distributed by: AARHUS UNIVERSITY PRESS Langelandsgade 177 DK-8200 Århus N www.unipress.dk Gazelle Book Services Ltd. White Cross Mills, Hightown Lancaster LA1 4XS, England www.gazellebooks.co The David Brown Book Company (DBBC) P.O. Box 511 Oakville, CT. 06779, USA www.davidbrownbookco.uk Cover illustration: drawing vulcanic eruption, © Walter Friedrich Front cover: Stone vase NM 592, © National Museum, Athens Olive branch from Thera eruption, © Walter Friedrich 6
Contents
9 Scientific & technical organizing committee
10 List of contributors
13 Editor’s preface
David A. Warburton
15 Bibliography
53 General introduction
David A. Warburton
56 The Minoan eruption of Santorini radiocarbon dated to 1613 ± 13 bc
Walter L. Friedrich & Jan Heinemeier
65 Part I: Evidence, geology, archaeology & chronology
67 Volcanic chronology of Santorini
Alexander R. McBirney
73 The eruption within the debate about the date
Floyd W. McCoy
91 The effects of the Minoan eruption
Walter L. Friedrich & Nikolaos Sigalas
101 Evidence from Pseira for the Santorini eruption
Philip P. Betancourt
107 The impact of the Minoan eruption of Santorini on Mochlos
Jeffrey S. Soles
117 Papadiokambos: new evidence for the impact of the Theran eruption
Thomas M. Brogan & Chrysa Sofianou
125 The basis for the Egyptian dates
Rolf Krauss & David A. Warburton
145 How uncertain is Mesopotamian chronology?
Hermann Hunger
7153 Part II: Debate: typology, chronology, methodology
154 Thera, Hatshepsut, and the Keftiu: crisis and response
J. Alexander MacGillivray
171 The Thera eruption and Egypt: pumice, texts and chronology
Karen Polinger Foster, Johannes H. Sterba, Georg Steinhauser & Max Bichler
181 The date of the Late Bronze Age eruption of Santorini
Peter Warren
187 Aegean-Egyptian synchronisms and radiocarbon chronology
Felix Höflmayer
197 The state of the debate about the date of the Theran eruption
Malcolm H. Wiener
207 Beyond the Santorini eruption
Sturt W. Manning
227 The dating of the earlier Late Minoan IA period
Sturt W. Manning & Christopher Bronk Ramsey
247 Chronological conundrums: Cypriot and Levantine imports from Thera
Robert Merrillees
253 The chronology of Tell el-cAjjul, Gaza
Peter M. Fischer
267 An update on the chronological value of Minoica in the Levant and Cyprus
Annette Højen Sørensen
275 C and 10Be around 1650 cal bc
14
Raimund Muscheler
285 The Minoan eruption of Santorini radiocarbon dated
Jan Heinemeier, Walter L. Friedrich, Bernd Kromer & Christopher Bronk Ramsey
295 Epilogue
David A. Warburton
8The state of the debate about the date of the
Theran eruption
Malcolm H. Wiener
The primary aim of this paper is to present a critical White Slip and White Painted III, IV, and V, found
review of the proposed scientific evidence for the in various contexts in the Near East, for example
date of the Theran eruption. A brief preliminary at Tell el-cAjjul and at Ashkelon,3 in Rhodes and
summary of the textual and archaeological evi- in Cyprus in contexts including Minoan LM IA
dence for the date is in order, however, to establish pottery.4 At Palaepaphos-Teratsoudhia on the west-
the cogent nature of the case which any purported- ern coast of Cyprus one tomb contained not only
ly contradictory scientific evidence must overcome. sherds of White Slip I and LM IA pottery (the same
First, Egyptian dates based on a rich interweav- association seen at Thera), but also a serpentine ves-
ing of texts, both public and private, and supple- sel bearing the nomen and prenomen of Ahmose,
mented by interconnections with securely dated the first pharaoh of Dyn. XVIII in Egypt, who be-
rulers in the Near East and astronomical observa- comes pharaoh on the death of his brother Kamose
tions, are solid back to the beginning of the New between c. 1540 and 1525 bc.5 The Aegean Long
Kingdom between 1540 and 1525 bc, and cannot Chronology with a date for the Theran eruption
move by more than two decades through the pre- of 1613 ±13 bc requires LM IA to end c. 1580 bc
ceding century of the Hyksos Period.1 at the latest, which in turn would require either
Second, chronological interconnections with that the LM IA vases placed in the tomb were all
Thera and the Aegean world have been established heirlooms and that the White Slip I vases were of
through multiple finds in good stratigraphic con- an earlier date than White Slip I vases known from
texts in Egypt, the Near East, Cyprus, and the anywhere else, or that the tomb had been reopened
Aegean. For example, it is hard to imagine that a to deposit the Egyptian serpentine vessel about 50
Cypriot White Slip I bowl from the Volcanic De- years after the deposit of the LM IA vessels. At Tri-
struction Level at Thera, a type nowhere attested anda in Rhodes, Cypriot White Slip ware appears
earlier than the beginning of the New Kingdom only above the tephra layer of the Theran eruption.6
in Egypt or at most no earlier than about 1560 bc, While any individual object may be an heirloom or
could have arrived in Thera prior to c. 1613 bc. of uncertain context, large numbers of potsherds
The bowl shows evidence of use and repair in an- and other objects are surely unlikely to arrive in
tiquity, and according to the leading specialists is foreign contexts regularly after 80 years’ delay, or
not stylistically early in the sequence of White Slip indeed 50 years’ delay. Archaeological arguments
I pottery.2 Under the circumstances, about 1525 bc seeking to explain such a delay by drawing a line
seems the earliest reasonable date, even if the bowl
was one of the first such ever made and traveled
quickly. The chronological horizon of White Slip 1
Wiener 2006b.
I seems well-fixed, moreover by the fact that ear- 2
Merrillees 2001, 90.
lier Cypriot wares appear in the established order in
3
Bergoffen 2001; Fischer 2003, 265.
4
Eriksson 2001b.
earlier strata at Tell el-Dabca, and by the thousands 5
Eriksson 2001b, 63; Karageorghis 1990, 95, fig. 1, pl.
of sherds of Cypriot pottery, including some White XX:L.1.
Slip I and its chronological predecessors, Proto 6
T. Marketou (pers. comm. 1 April 2007).
The state of the debate about the date of the Theran eruption 197of demarcation separating Cyprus into western and the 17th century bc, than to Thera. Other volca-
eastern zones trading with different regions, other- noes, including the Hayes Volcano in Alaska, Mt.
wise unattested and matching no natural features, St. Helens in the Northwestern United States, and
are rightly dismissed as wholly unconvincing by Avellino in Italy, also experienced 17th century bc
most archaeologists.7 In any event, the chronologi- eruptions.14 Moreover, an analysis by Peter Fischer
cal argument based on Egyptian interconnections using state-of-the-art SIMS equipment at the Nor-
does not by any means rest on Cypriot pottery, dsim facility in Stockholm could find no trace of a
but includes Egyptian objects of well-established volcanic eruption in the ice lamination of the suc-
date found on Thera, Crete, and in the Mycenaean ceeding year, notwithstanding the expectation that
Shaft Graves at times closely related to the Theran some such particles would have remained in the
eruption, and Aegean objects plus depictions of atmosphere.15 In any event, there seems no basis
Aegean objects found in Egypt in contexts con- for an assumption that every northern Hemisphere
sistent with the standard chronology. The Theran eruption must leave an acid signal in every square
evidence includes an Egyptian stone vessel found meter of the Greenland ice.16 In sum, there is no
in the excavations of the Theran Volcanic Destruc- sustainable ice core evidence for the Theran erup-
tion Level by Christos Doumas published by Peter tion.
Warren and described by Manfred Bietak as no ear- There is at present no direct dendrochronologi-
lier in manufacture than the beginning of the New cal evidence for dating the Theran eruption either.
Kingdom between c. 1540 and 1525 bc, based on The key sequence of logs from Porsuk near the
finds of similar stone vases to date.8 Late Minoan I Cilician Gates, 800 km due east of Thera, shows a
rhyta vase shapes are copied in local Egyptian clay growth spurt of indeterminable cause around 1642
or faience beginning in the New Kingdom.9 If Late bc, an impossibly early date for the Theran erup-
Minoan IA ended fifty years before the start of the tion on textual-archaeological grounds (and signifi-
New Kingdom as required by a 17th–early 16th cen- cantly earlier than the date proposed by the recent
tury bc date for the eruption, then Egyptians were radiocarbon analysis of a Theran olive branch cov-
copying heirlooms which survived the Hyksos ex- ered in tephra discussed below). The Porsuk tree-
pulsion from Egypt, even though no such objects ring sequence largely ends in 1573 bc and hence is
have ever been found at Hyksos sites. not relevant to the discussion of any later date for
We now move to the scientific claims for dat- the eruption, for example a date compatible with
ing the eruption. An article in Science by Friedrich the textual/archaeological evidence such as 1525
et al. asserts that there is evidence from ice cores bc. Apparent correlations of ice core and tree-ring
and tree rings for a date 75–100 years earlier than events in the same year or two in a number of lo-
archaeological dating for the Theran eruption.10
There is in fact no such sustainable evidence. As to 7
Bietak 2004; Warren 2006; Wiener 2001; 2003; 2007.
ice core dating, first the claim of significant simi-
8
Further elaboration of the archaeological evidence may be
found in Peter Warren, this volume.
larity in rare-earth element composition between 9
Koehl 2000; 2006, 342–5, 358.
microscopic glass shards in a Greenland ice core 10
Friedrich et al. 2006.
lamination of c. 1642 bc11 was challenged as not 11
Hammer et al. 1987; 2001; 2003, 93.
yielding convincing results.12 Second, investiga- 12
Pearce et al. 2004; Keenan 2003; Wiener 2007.
13
Keenan 2003.
tion disclosed that major differences in the bulk 14
Pearce et al. 2004.
components of the Greenland ice particles and the 15
Fischer & Whitehouse 2004.
Theran tephra made a common source unlikely.13 16
Wiener 2003a; Robock 2000 and pers. comm.; Robock &
Finally, it was shown that the published chemical Free 1995. The recent paper by Vinther et al. 2008, contends,
composition of the ice core indication was closer however, that the analyses of chemical composition by Pearce
and others, while cogent, do not completely rule out the
to the composition of an eruption of Aniakchak, possibility that the c. 1642 bc event in the Greenland ice cores
a volcano in the Aleutian Chain which on inde- was caused by the Theran eruption; contra Denton & Pearce,
pendent evidence is believed to have erupted in 2008.
198 Malcolm H. Wienercations around the globe, probably the results of sets found in inter-laboratory comparisons even
major eruptions, occur at several dates, including between the high-precision laboratories”.19 The
1571-70 bc and 1525-24 bc,17 but the locations of recently published VERA laboratory in Vienna de-
the putative eruptions responsible for the suspected terminations for the Thutmoside period in Egypt,
climate-forcing events are presently unknown. based on seeds found at Tell el-Dabca, differ mark-
We turn now to the radiocarbon evidence for edly from all other radiocarbon determinations for
dating the Theran eruption, focusing first on this period, as well as from solid historical dates for
problem areas of radiocarbon dating in general and the period.20 The cause of the anomaly is unknown.
then specifically on proposed dates for the Theran Comparison of measurements of short-lived
eruption. The general challenges of radiocarbon samples such as seeds which may have a lifespan
dating include 1) the effect of seasonal variation measured in weeks to the decadal or bi-decadal
reflecting differences in growing seasons between measurements of the trees which constitute the
plants and trees in various areas, sometimes calibration curve necessarily confronts the fact that
exacerbated by periods of cold climate; 2) the the intra-year difference in radiocarbon-age mea
relatively small number of measurements of the surements between the summer high and winter
tree segments of known date which compose the low varies significantly, generally between 8 and 32
calibration curve, some from before the advent radiocarbon years, but with occasional higher vari-
of modern high-precision laboratories, including ations. (The dilution of the atmospheric concentra-
measurements which have subsequently been tions of 14C and 13C by large amounts of fossil fuel
acknowledged to be erroneous;18 3) questions containing CO2 largely lacking 14C and 13C in the
arising from the assumptions underlying the past two centuries may limit the relevance of the
claimed precision of results of the Bayesian or proposed summer high versus winter low annual
quasi-Bayesian probability analyses connecting range with respect to premodern periods. Keenan
sample measurements to the calibration curve; suggests that 32 years may be a significant under
and 4) possible carbon reservoir contamination of estimate of the intra-year range.)21 The growing
samples by the presence of 14C-deficient carbon season of Egyptian seeds is of course far different
from a) upwelling of seawater affecting the 14C from that of the oaks in northern Europe on which
content of the atmosphere, b) groundwater, soil the calibration curve is mostly based.
concentrations, or limestone formations, or c) Calibration-curve determinations present signif-
volcanic vents. icant further problems. The decadal measurements
We begin with the measurement of 14C in labora- of the calibration curve necessarily mask to some
tories. While measurements have improved greatly degree both intra-year as well as inter-year variabil-
over the course of a generation, outliers and incon- ity, particularly since years of greater growth pro-
sistent measurements in samples divided between ducing large rings will be always overrepresented in
two or more high-precision labs still occur. Man- the decadal sample, and years of low growth pro-
ning et al. in an article published in 2006 report ducing narrow rings underrepresented. Anatolian
that “[o]verall, comparing the Oxford versus Vi- trees give quite different radiocarbon dates from
enna data on the same samples, we find an average European trees of the same known dendrochrono-
offset of -11.4 14C years. The standard deviation is, logical date for the period 800–750 bc. A change
however, rather larger than the stated errors on the in solar radiation at this time with a consequent
data would imply at 68.1 [uncalibrated radiocarbon cold period latening growing seasons in Anatolia
years]. This indicates that there is an unknown er-
ror component of 54.5 14C years”. Moreover, “the
possible likely typical unknown error component
17
Wiener 2006a, 320–3; Salzer & Hughes 2007.
18
Manning 2007, 108.
of around 14 14C years found between Oxford and 19
Manning et al. 2006b, 5.
Vienna is about as good as can be expected in such 20
Wiener 2006b; Marcus et al. n.d.
an inter-comparison given the typical level of off- 21
Keenan 2004.
The state of the debate about the date of the Theran eruption 199has been proposed as the cause by Manning et al. of Japan also, a question relevant to the discussion
The inconsistent effect of the 11- and 88-year sun- below.) The warning of statistician Marian Scott is
spot cycles also pose problems. apposite: “Bayesian analysis is not a ‘cure-all’; it has
The problematic nature of the 1998 calibration costs, not least the specification of the prior. This
curve was recognized by the international commit- is not easy and even in those situations where we
tee that produced the INTCAL04 calibration curve. think we are not making any strong assumptions,
The committee accordingly recommended that the there may be hidden complications”.26 The utili-
Gaussian bell-curve-derived estimates of measure- zation of 14C determinations from different sites
ment accuracies should be multiplied at the one- (and hence subject to different circumstances with
sigma range by 1.3 for the Seattle measurements respect to 14C reservoir effects of various types, as
and 1.76 for the Belfast measurements on German well as different seasonal effects) as if they were re-
oak.22 The INTCAL04 Committee further decided peated measurements from one horizon at one site
to smooth the calibration curve by incorporating is clearly problematic. Voutsaki et al. put the mat-
information from 100 surrounding data points for ter bluntly: “despite widespread practice, this pro-
each decadal determination, in order to limit the cedure is not really statistically valid”.27 All such
impact of any single wayward decadal measurement. programs narrow the error bands depending on the
The number of years incorporated in this manner number of measurements, a procedure sometimes
is inversely correlated to the density of information justified with respect to first-order measurement
for any given decade. The calibration curve – really uncertainty, but irrelevant and hence inadequate
a probability band rather than a curve23 – is not a with respect to errors in the calibration curve,
fixed and immutable reference point, but rather a climate-magnified seasonal/regional variation, or
fallible human construct. The former Deputy Di- local/regional variation stemming from the presence
rector of the Oxford Research Laboratory for Ar- of 14C-deficient carbon, whether from seawater or
chaeology and the History of Art noted that “con- terrestrial sinks or other sources of 14C-deficient
version to calendar date is confusing because of the carbon, including volcanic sources. Two-sigma er-
irregular form of the calibration curve; the difficulty ror bands of ±15 or less with respect to calibrated
of translating error limits from one time-scale to the dates for the second millennium bc rest on highly
other is particularly acute and here we are inevitably optimistic assumptions concerning the accuracy and
in the hands of the statisticians”.24 precision of the calibration curve, the near perfec-
A recent experiment in Japan, where 5-year seg- tion of the algorithms connecting sample measure-
ments of a piece of cypress wood of known den- ments to the calibration curve, the absence of sea-
drochronological last-ring date of ad 389 were sub- sonal and climate-induced variation, and the non-
mitted for radiocarbon dating, provided a calibrated existence of 14C-deficient carbon, from any source,
date range of 86% probability which was erroneous in the samples tested. (The question of the potential
by a minimum of 72 years.25 This result clearly illus- presence of 14C-deficient carbon is of particular sig-
trates the potential for confusion on the part of most nificance in relation to measurements from Thera.
consumers of radiocarbon dates stemming from the Each 1% of such carbon in a sample moves the ap-
use of the term “probability” in this manner, with parent date 80 years earlier than the true date.)
no disclosure of the underlying assumptions, par-
ticularly the assumptions concerning the accuracy 22
Reimer et al. 2004, 1034–6.
and adequacy of the calibration curve measure- 23
Manning 1995, 128.
ments and the absence of climate factors and of 14C- 24
Aitken 1990, 93.
deficient carbon, discussed below. (The Japanese 25
Imamura et al. 2007.
study also sounded a note of caution as to whether
26
Scott 2000, 181. Discussions of or relevant to the application
of Bayesian statistics to radiocarbon dates may be found in
the utilization of a calibration curve largely based Buck et al. 1996; Christen 1994; Christen and Buck 1998;
on German oaks was appropriate for the calibra- Nicholls & Jones 2001; and Zeidler, Buck, & Litton 1998.
tion of measurements of material from the islands 27
Voutsaki et al. 2009.
200 Malcolm H. WienerOne regional variation is already well estab- welling of deep water occurs near many coastlines”
lished and accepted by the radiocarbon commu- and that it “is affected by the shape of the coast-
nity. Recently a separate Southern Hemisphere line and the bottom topography, local climate, and
calibration curve was published to reflect the fact wind and current patterns”.33 (Such upwelling is
that radiocarbon measurements from decadal tree not a general phenomenon in the Eastern Mediter-
segments of the same known date in the North- ranean at present, however.)
ern and Southern Hemispheres differ by a mean Let us consider the position of the island of Thera
difference of 41 ±14 years over the past 900 years, in this light. Unlike the German oaks and central
with a variation between 8 and 80 years. The un- Anatolian juniper and pine trees which form the
derlying cause or causes of the differences between basis of the radiocarbon calibration curve, the trees
Northern and Southern Hemisphere 14C measure- and crops of Thera are surrounded by sources of
ments of samples of the same absolute date and 14
C-deficient carbon. Thera in particular and the
their relative significance are unclear. (Wind belts Aegean in general are notorious for vents contain-
known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone ing 14C-deficient carbon. Geothermal areas are
separate the two hemispheres and prevent atmo known in the northern and central Aegean as well
spheric mixing.) More of the Southern than the as along the Hellenic Volcanic Arc. A recent occur-
Northern Hemisphere is covered by water, and rence near the island of Melos was described as fol-
water contains 14C-deficient carbon which, when lows: “Every fumarole on the shore blew out. And
released into the atmosphere through periodic up- the sea boiled as the gas came out with such force.
welling of deep-sea water and absorbed by trees and Stunned fish came to the surface”.34 Another major
plants, makes calendar ages seem older than in fact source of old carbon exists 5 km north-northeast of
they are. Such regional effects are not limited to Thera. The traveler Bent reported that in the 1880s
the Southern Hemisphere, however. For example, a 10-days’ stay in the waters off the Burnt Islands
similar regional offsets are proposed for Japan, ei- of Thera would clean the bottoms of ships without
ther generally or for certain periods.28 Stuiver and any effort on the part of the sailors.35 One study
Braziunas describe how irregular water circulation showed that while the present levels of soil carbon
oscillations of 14C-deficient water,29 some with a dioxide (CO2) on Thera are not uniformly high, 24
periodicity of 40–50 years, operate globally, “re- separate locations out the 76 yielded high levels, in-
gionally distinct from ENSO but influencing Δ14C cluding one location close to Akrotiri.36 The most
in a similar manner” to these El Niño-Southern recent detailed study by McCoy and Heiken, pub-
Oscillation episodes.30 (They also consider whether lished in 2000, reports that “manifestations of vol-
a combination of low sunspot activity and resulting canism and concomitant hazards remain today with
cold climate could cause a significant decrease in fumeroles, seismic activity, hydrothermal springs,
radiocarbon in certain periods in particular places.) and higher concentrations of helium and CO2 in
Similar periodic upwelling of old carbon has been soils”37 and that “high concentrations of helium
proposed for the Aegean, whether caused by the and CO2 are present in soils on central Thera”.38
exchange of new cold deep water created annually
in the northern Adriatic pushing up older water
in the central Mediterranean, which then degas- 28
Imamura et al. 2007; Ozaki et al. 2007.
29
Stuiver & Braziunas 1993.
ses as it depressurizes, or by the exchange of wa- 30
Delworth et al. 1993.
ter with the Black Sea, rich in old carbon,31 or in 31
Keenan 2002.
the form of periodic release of old carbon from the 32
Reimer & McCormac 2002.
underwater vents discussed below. Reservoir effects 33
Rapp & Hill 2006, 153.
have been reported for the Mediterranean includ-
34
P.R. Dando, as quoted in Pain 1999, 41.
35
Bent 1965, 118.
ing the Aegean in the early 20th century ad, but the 36
Barberi & Carapezza 1994, 338.
evidence is scanty and nothing is presently known 37
McCoy & Heiken 2000a, 43.
about earlier times.32 Rapp and Hill note that “up- 38
McCoy & Heiken 2000a, 48.
The state of the debate about the date of the Theran eruption 201With respect to the potential presence of 14C- lished the existence of such intake. With respect
deficient carbon, a test by M. Bruns et al. in 1980 to pines, for example, a recent study in the jour-
is worth noting. Their study of current short-lived nal Tree Physiology reports that “plants can acquire
plant material from Thera whose true age was carbon from sources other than atmospheric CO2,
about one year provided radiocarbon ages of 1390 including soil-dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC).
and 1030 bp (years before present). The plants were Although the net flux of CO2 is out of the root,
located near a vent of such old carbon, which the soil DIC can be taken up by the root, transported
plants had absorbed. The pronounced old-carbon within the plant, and fixed…”.43 Similar behavior
effect of this particular vent, a point source as dis- has been proposed for sycamore and willow trees.44
tinguished from a line (volcanic fault) source or a Oliver Rackham, a leading specialist on olive trees,
distributed source, disappeared beyond a distance has noted that olive trees in particular spread mas-
of 250 m.39 Strangely, some of the advocates of an sive roots in a search for water in dry climates.45
Aegean Long Chronology have turned this one As to seed-producing plants, all modern studies
example into a universal rule, claiming that vents known to me suggest that plants take up at least
do not affect radiocarbon determinations except at a small amount of CO2 through their roots,46 and
close distances, and only by gross amounts. The lit- none reports they do not, notwithstanding certain
erature shows just the opposite, with volcanic car- assertions to this effect. Moreover, it is necessary
bon vents in various areas in Italy affecting radio- to consider the possibility that the uptake of soil
carbon readings over many kilometres. A number carbon saturates at a fairly low value to protect the
of Italian studies have shown that historically se- health of the tree or plant (unless the tree or plant
curely dated deposits have produced anomalously is overwhelmed by proximity to a volcanic vent).
high 14C dates.40 Further, agricultural activity can Plants and trees of course principally take up CO2
release 14C-deficient carbon, as can groundwater through photosynthesis sites in their leaves. The ef-
flowing through ancient rocks and used for irriga- fect of dense leaf canopies on radiocarbon determi-
tion. N.A. Mörner and G. Etiope note that in the nations is the subject of a forthcoming study by S.
“Tethyan belt [which includes the Mediterranean Soter.
region], high CO2 fluxes are related to important It is sometimes claimed that the presence of 14C-
crustal formations of … carbonate rocks [causing] deficient carbon in seeds or trees from Thera would
high level of CO2 concentration in ground and necessarily result in gross and highly irregular dis-
groundwater”.41 The great earthquake at the be- tortions.47 The Southern Hemisphere anomaly,
ginning of the Late Cycladic I period, 50 to 100
years before the Late Cycladic I–Late Minoan IA 39
Bruns et al. 1980, 534 fig. 1.
eruption, released quantities of magma through fis- 40
Rogie 1996; Chiodini et al. 1999; Rogie et al. 2000;
sures, according to McCoy and Heiken.42 The pre- Cardellini et al. 2003; Guidi et al. 1996; Turfa 2006; Chiodini
cursor phases of the final eruption would of course et al. 2004; Gambardella et al. 2004; Minissale et al. 1997.
41
Mörner & Etiope 2002, 193.
have released magma; and accordingly, seeds col- 42
McCoy & Heiken 2000a; Palyvou 2005, 177–8.
lected and stored during this period have an in- 43
Ford et al. 2007, 375. I am most grateful to Steven Soter
creased potential for a reservoir effect. We have no for providing this reference. He notes that “the seedlings
information whatever on the extent of magma re- acquired about 0.8% of their carbon from soil DIC (CO2
and its derivatives). Interestingly, the soil-derived carbon was
lease, if any, at any point in the past, let alone from partitioned unevenly among the various plant tissues, with a
the Theran eruption horizon. higher concentration in stems than in needles (leaves)” (pers.
The presence of 14C-depleted carbon in the soil comm. 18 Nov. 2007).
and groundwater of Thera (apart from the potential 44
Teskey & McGuire 2007; Vuorinen & Kaiser 1997.
atmospheric presence due to upwelling of the sur-
45
Rackham 1965–1966. I am grateful to Peter Warren for this
reference.
rounding deep-sea water) raises the question of the 46
Cramer 2002; Enoch & Olesen 1993; Cramer & Richards
degree of carbon intake by trees and plants via roots 1999. See also Saleska et al. 2007.
rather than leaves. A number of studies have estab- 47
Manning 2007, 111–2.
202 Malcolm H. Wienerconstrained within a range of 8–80 years over a ervoirs in their own right and exchange CO2 with
900-year span, indicates that, in some areas at least, the atmosphere, but also incorporate carbon from
carbonates of geological origin. This, in principle,
discrepancies of less than a century are the rule
means that the radiocarbon concentration can lie
rather than the exception. The Gordion log deter-
anywhere between the levels in the atmosphere
minations, where a less-than-a-century discrepancy and those of the bedrock (effectively zero).54
has been attributed to a low-solar-activity-induced
cold-climate shift affecting the growing season and The potential reservoir effect of old carbon on ra-
the absorption of sunlight during the late 9th–early diocarbon dates is significant, both in general and
8th century bc, and the differences of up to a hun- with regard to the environment of Thera in par-
dred years at around 680 bc in Japan are also in ticular. The problem is generally ignored in the
this range.48 The 17th century bc is believed to have publication of Aegean radiocarbon determinations,
been a period of intense volcanic activity involving however.
the eruption of Aniakchak and the Hayes Volcano A recent article by Manning contends that “at
in Alaska, Avellino in Italy, a volcano in Japan, and present there seems no even vaguely satisfactory
perhaps Mt. St. Helens in Washington state.49 Re- explanation that could plausibly account for such
search by Eddy describes a period of rapidly di- a small and consistent/systematic ‘old’ age error/
minishing solar activity following a solar maximum contamination for radiocarbon dates for the whole
which affected the 14C absorption by trees during region at this time (and only this time)”.55 As we
the period 1850–1700 bc, which may have affected shall soon see, there is no credible radiocarbon dat-
climate and seasonal variation differently in Theran ing evidence at this time for the whole region, and
samples versus European and central Anatolian cali- indeed for anywhere but Thera itself. As to the
bration curve measurements.50 claim that such a Theran anomaly, if present, would
Fortunately, awareness of such potential prob- exist “only at this time”, there is no evidence at
lem areas is becoming evident with the radiocar- all for Theran radiocarbon dates at any other time.
bon laboratory community. For example, C. Bronk No radiocarbon samples were obtained in the early
Ramsey, the Director of the Oxford Radiocarbon excavations of the Archaic or Hellenistic-Roman
Accelerator Unit, in his review of the current state sites. Indeed, there is no evidence for human pres-
of radiocarbon dating in the 50th anniversary issue ence on Thera between the eruption and the 13th
of Archaeometry has carefully noted that 1) “[o]cean century bc.
circulation and climate are obviously not in a steady With respect to determinations from the erup-
state and so the reservoir offsets seen today will not tion horizon itself, the pre-olive branch evidence
be the same as those prevailing in the past (see, e.g., is ambiguous. Most radiocarbon measurements fall
Ascough et al. 2007)”;51 2) “[u]nfortunately for dat- within the oscillating portion of the radiocarbon
ing applications, the oceanic circulation is an un- curve, which makes it impossible to distinguish
wanted complication and it is usually only possible dates between 1615 and 1525 bc. A few determina-
to make allowance for the spatial component of the tions give dates somewhat earlier, putatively for any
variability”;52 and 3) “[i]n practice, the radiocarbon of the myriad reasons discussed in this paper why
in any one region of the ocean will vary relative some radiocarbon determinations provide mislead-
to the surface oceanic average. This variability, first ingly early dates. (Consider, for example, the dif-
seen in places where there is significant ocean up-
welling (Monges Soares 1993), is much more likely 48
Ozaki et al. 2007.
to be the rule than the exception”.53 With respect 49
Vogel et al. 1990, 535.
to potential freshwater old-carbon reservoir effects, 50
Eddy 1977.
Bronk Ramsey observes that
51
Bronk Ramsey 2008b, 252.
52
Bronk Ramsey 2008b, 252.
[h]ere, we know even less than we do about the 53
Bronk Ramsey 2008b, 252.
oceans. Such freshwater systems not only act as res- 54
Bronk Ramsey 2008b, 252–3.
55
Manning 2007, 111.
The state of the debate about the date of the Theran eruption 203ference between Oxford measurement OxA 1552 believes probably came from a chair or throne in
at 3390 bp ±65 and OxA 1555 at 3245 bp ±65, a shrine area.59 The piece of wood was covered
or between Heidelberg Hd 5058/5519 at 3490 bp in Theran tephra, but there was no way of de-
±80 and Hd 6059/7967 at 3140 bp ±70.56) Sturt termining the age of the wood when the chair,
Manning summarizes the situation as follows: throne or beam was made, and still less the age
it is apparent from the parameters and data for the when it was destroyed. The Cretan claim rested
Thera “problem” … that a solution may well be in part on the single aberrant measurement by the
unlikely from the volcanic destruction level radio- Belfast lab which was incorporated into the cali-
carbon data alone. The data at hand either indicate bration curve but has since been disavowed,60 and
strongly, or, in most cases, tend toward, a 17th cen- in part on unjustified or erroneous assumptions
tury solution. However, it is undeniable that not concerning the number of LM IB destructions at
all do, and that the radiocarbon “gap” between 17th Khania or the simultaneity of LM IB destructions
century certainty, and 17th/16th century ambiguity, on Crete.
is all of about 20–30 radiocarbon years. This span
Let us turn at last to the now-famous branch of
is about the same as the best measurement pre-
cision available today for Accelerator Mass Spec- an olive tree found by an Aarhus University team
trometry determinations—the source technology covered with tephra from the eruption on Thera.
for nearly all the modern Thera radiocarbon ages. The Media Release of 27 April 2006 of the Faculty
Hence one is operating on the limits of precision. of Science of Aarhus University has caused some
And even small laboratory offsets, or variations astonishment, for it cites Dr. Walter Friedrich as
caused in sample pre-treatment regimes, could claiming that the Theran artist who painted the
become relevant in pushing data into, or out of, miniature fresco of the fleet scene depicted the ef-
the ambiguity threshold. Hence we hit an impasse. fect of the tsunami as it was happening, and that
And a skeptic is justified to be so.57
this accounts for the damaged prow of one ship
Numerous other bases for skepticism, from the and the drowning naked men,61 notwithstanding
problems of pretreatment and inter-laboratory the fact that the image is a standard depiction of a
measurement differences, to the fragile and uncer- defeated enemy, warriors are shown ashore, and all
tain nature of the calibration curve, to the effects the other ships are upright. More importantly, the
of seasonal, regional and climate variation, to the tsunami followed the major (Minoan C) phase of
problems inherent in the Bayesian algorithms con- the eruption that deposited four meters of tephra
necting 14C measurements to the calibration curve, over the site, by which time all the inhabitants had
to the potential presence of 14C-deficient carbon, departed.62
have been considered above. Statements of radio- Let us focus on the radiocarbon measurements,
carbon-measurement ranges in the nature of ±13 however, for they form the most substantial argu-
for Bronze Age dates should come with caveats re- ment to date for a long chronology. The article by
garding all these potential sources of error. Friedrich et al. in Science states that radiocarbon
The claim that relevant radiocarbon determina- dates were obtained for four successive segments of
tions exist from “the whole region” (i.e., from the branch, which had a total of about 72 rings;
Trianda on Rhodes, Miletus in Anatolia, and sites that the radiocarbon measurements fall in the right
on Crete) supporting an Aegean Long Chronol- order with the inner rings giving older dates, and
ogy have been shown to be faulty. The evidence finally that the measurement of the latest segment
from Rhodes consists of a piece of wood of inse-
cure context which produced inconclusive mea 56
Manning et al. 2006b.
surements for its three decadal segments, with 80 57
Manning 2005, 111–2.
years separating adjacent decadal segments and
58
Manning et al. 2006a; Wiener 2009.
59
Niemeier 2005, 6–7.
the outer segment providing earlier dates than 60
Manning 2007, 108; Wiener 2003a, 392.
an inner segment.58 The evidence from Miletus 61
Friedrich & Heinemeier 2006.
comes from a piece of wood which the excavator 62
McCoy & Heiken 2000a.
204 Malcolm H. Wienergives a destruction date of 1613 bc, ±13 years, us- the archaeological date (based on interconnections
ing the 2004 smoothed calibration curve (but pos- with Egypt, and estimates of the duration of the
sibly as late as 1575 bc if the 1998 curve is used LM IA, LH I, and LC I periods) for the massive
and assumptions about the number of years repre- Seismic Destruction Level at the beginning of LC
sented by the rings relaxed).63 Of course 1575 bc I, an event which could have caused the death of
is within the oscillating portion of the calibration the branch.
curve as we have seen, but the earlier segments of With respect to the potential presence of 14C-
the branch are said to give dates earlier than the deficient carbon (prevalent at and around Thera as
1620–1520 period of oscillation. How persuasive is noted above) in the olive branch, we do not and
this evidence? cannot know anything about the pre-eruption lo-
The first question which arises is whether the cation of terrestrial vents. Recent research indicates
branch in question was living at the time of the that a caldera existed prior to the Minoan period
eruption or had died and ceased to absorb 14C earli- eruption, perhaps formed by an earlier eruption
er. Oliver Rackham, the coauthor of The Making of around 25,000 bc, but the extent of that caldera
the Cretan Landscape (Rackham and Moody 1996) cannot be closely determined.66 Accordingly, the
and The Nature of Mediterranean Europe (Grove and statement made in the abstract of the paper by
Rackham 2003), has kindly provided the following W.L. Friedrich and J. Heinemeier that the tree was
comment in this regard: growing at a distance of more than 2.5 km from
I don’t follow the argument that the last growth what is today the active volcanic zone is irrelevant.
ring of the wood specimen was contemporary Moreover, old carbon can exist outside the active
with the eruption. The authors describe it as a volcanic zone, as noted above. Of course we can
“branch”, but the pictures indicate a shattered ra- have little idea of the pre-eruption landscape, in-
dial fragment of a stem or major branch at least 40 cluding whether the tree stood in proximity to a
cm in diameter. As we all know, many olive trees degassing vent or to a river or other water-source of
bear dead branches and fragments of branches, and 14
C-deficient-carbon contamination which would
I would not rule out the possibility that some of put dates older.67 The propensity of olive trees to
these might last 100 years after they died. The tree
seek groundwater for nourishment and the poten-
itself may have been alive when it was buried, but
not all its limbs were necessarily alive or even re- tial presence of 14C-deficient carbon in groundwa-
cently dead.64 ter in a volcanic landscape have already been noted,
as has the potential for upwelling of 14C-deficient
Harriet Blitzer (the leading specialist in the ethnog- carbon from the sea surrounding Thera. A general
raphy of preindustrial Cretan agricultural practice discussion of the problems posed for radiocarbon
and author of ‘Agriculture and Subsistence’ in The dating by the reservoir effects of 14C-deficient car-
Plain of Phaistos [2004]) concurs, stating that bon from upwelling of seawater and from ground-
water is now available in the 50th anniversary issue
certain parts of a mature tree may die and other
of Archaeometry.68
parts of the same tree may continue to grow and
bear fruit. The decision to prune the dead branch- In sum, at present there are simply too many
es is based in part on the overall structure of the unknowns with respect to the radiocarbon evidence
tree (its stability and balance) and on whether the to solve the equation. The advice of Aristotle to
dead sections prove an obstacle to further growth look for exactitude in each class of things only so far
in other parts of the plant. In many cases, among as the nature of the matter allows (Nicomachean Ethics
older trees, there are massive dead branches that
have been left untouched for the above reasons. In 63
Friedrich et al. 2006.
those instances, the remainder of the tree is alive, 64
O. Rackham, pers. comm. of 11 May 2008.
growing, and producing fruit.65 65
Pers. comm. 23 July 2008; see also Blitzer forth.
66
Heiken et al. 1990.
It is worth noting that the radiocarbon date of 1613 67
Yu et al. 2007.
±13 proposed for the last segment would fit exactly 68
Bronk Ramsey 2008b.
The state of the debate about the date of the Theran eruption 2051094b 23–27) remains sound and is applicable here. which now consists significantly of the radiocarbon
The radiocarbon-dated olive branch for the moment measurements from the single Theran olive branch,
is that dreaded scientific phenomenon, a singleton. does not seem sufficient in light of all the areas
Both intensive remeasurement of the existing branch of uncertainty described to shift the balance of
(preferably by a different radiocarbon laboratory) probability against the well-established text-plus-
to determine whether the initial measurements are interconnections-based Aegean Chronology.
replicable and the location and measurement of an
additional branch or branches are critical desiderata.
We hope for further discoveries. “Extraordinary
claims require extraordinary evidence”, said the
scientist Carl Sagan.69 The scientific evidence, 69
Sagan 1979, 62.
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