TTI, Inc. The Specialist in Electronic Component Distribution - A Berkshire Hathaway Company
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TTI, Inc. The Specialist in Electronic Component Distribution A Berkshire Hathaway Company
Q1 2019 MLCC & Resistor Chip Market Update
Causal Factors
Product Lifecycles
Constrained & Allocated Products
Alternative MLCC Design Options
Final Thoughts – Market Observations
Q1 2019 MLCC & Resistor Chip Market Update
Causal Factors
Product Lifecycles
Constrained & Allocated Products
Alternative MLCC Design Options
Final Thoughts – Market Observations
Causal Factors
Strong Economy + Technological Advancements
• Electronic component demand has risen dramatically over the past 24 months largely due to simultaneous growth in virtually
all market segments
• Additionally, increased technology in the strong automotive, industrial, and telecom markets have pushed demand beyond all
anticipation
Automotive Data
• Powertrain • Smart Phones
• Safety & Comfort • Mobile Internet
• Body Electronics • 5G
• Infotainment & Telematics Systems
Causal Factors
Supplier Reluctance to Add Capacity
Trillions
o From 2011 thru 2016, MLCC unit output
Ceramic Capacitor Market
increased every year while revenues $10 Value ($B) and Volume (T)
4.0
$9
remained flat. 3.5
$8
3.0
o Units increased 30.2% in this period from 1.7 $7
Billions
$6 2.5
trillion to 2.8 trillion units. $5 2.0
$4 1.5
o Suppliers added capacity, but in a more $3
1.0
balanced and/or measured fashion $2
$1 0.5
o Given investment required & overall low ROI, $0 0.0
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
many suppliers have changed their strategy 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
World Value World Volumes
Q1 2019 MLCC & Resistor Chip Market Update
Causal Factors
Product Lifecycles
Constrained & Allocated Products
Alternative MLCC Design Options
Final Thoughts – Market Observations
Product Life Cycles
Capacity and Resources are Being Redirected to Smaller, More Economical Case Sizes
Resistor Chip Case Size Roadmap MLCC Case Size Roadmap
0402
0805
0603
0201
1206 01005
o Global industry trends are leaning more and more toward 0201 and 01005 case sizes. 008004 case size chips will be
trending up in 2020 and beyond.
o However, the North American market, particularly in the industrial, military, and transportation market segments, are
large consumers of the 0402, 0603, 0805 and 1206 case size resistor and capacitor chips.Product Life Cycles
Capacity and Resources are Being Redirected to Smaller, More Economical Case Sizes
o Volumetric efficiencies gained from the
intentional downsizing of the market are
illustrated to the right:
o 1206 to 0603 = 800% increase
o 1206 to 0402 = 3,200% increase
o Roughly 3 trillion of the global 4.3 trillion
MLCCs produced in 2018 were in 0201 or
smaller case sizes
o 0201 and smaller case size MLCCs are
growing at a 22.3% CAGR, more than 2X
the growth rate of larger case MLCCsQ1 2019 MLCC & Resistor Chip Market Update
Causal Factors
Product Lifecycles
Constrained & Allocated Products
Alternative MLCC Design Options
Final Thoughts – Market ObservationsProduct Availability
MLCC Supplier Decisions to Cease Production
o Several larger suppliers have elected to end of life (EOL) less profitable, commodity products
o Large case size (above 0402) and low CV (below 1µF) are the primary areas most effected by supplier EOL notifications
~1nF ~100nF ~220nF ~470nF 1μF 2.2μF 4.7μF 10μF 22μF 47μF 100μF 220/330μF
Size(inch): ~102 ~104 224 474 105 225 475 106 226 476 107 227,337
Available 1005
0201
Caution
0402
Constrained
Hard 0603
Allocation
0805
1206
>=1210Constrained or Allocated MLCCs
Constrained MLCC Suppliers on TTI’s Line card As of February, 2019
allocated on selected commercial and constrained on all commercial and
automotive ceramic capacitor values in automotive ceramic capacitors series Cxxxx
0201 through 2220 case sizes low CV and and CGA in both low and high CV, highly
high CV in all dielectrics
allocated on NRND identified part numbers
allocated on all commercial, automotive
allocated on HI CV products above 1uf.
and specialty (Flexterm, high temp, high
constrained on select low CV values on
volt, fail safe) Series Cxxxx, all values in
cases sizes larger than 0603
0201 thru 2225 case sizes low and high CV
highly constrained and allocated on NRND,
EOL and select values of commercial and constrained on 0402 low CV and limited
automotive. Low and high CV GR*, GC* offering for high CV in larger case sizes
and ZR* series monolithic ceramic capsConstrained or Allocated Resistor Chips
Standard Thick Film Chip Pb only 0402/0603 Thick Film
Resistors (0805-1206) Chips Resistors
Metal Electrode Leadless Commercial & Automotive
Frame Resistors (MELF) grade 0805/1206/>1210 Thick
Film Resistor Chips
Metal Strip Current Sense
Resistors
Metal Element Current Current Sense Resistors
Sense Resistors (CSM series)
Open Air Sense Metal
Alloy Strip ResistorsConstrained or Allocated Resistor Chips
Resistor Chip Lead Time Trends
Thin Film Resistors (Nicrome)
• Lead times averaging 12-20 weeks. In Q1 2018 lead times for these products were in the 40-50 week range.
Thin Film Resistors (Nitride)
• Lead times slightly higher than the Nicrome versions with lead times at 20-25 weeks. Stable for most of 2018.
Current Sense Resistors (Thick Film)
• Lead times are reducing to more normal ranges of 16-20 weeks. There are still some exceptions, particularly in larger case
sizes (1206) and anti-sulfur products, where lead times are +30 weeks. Lead times in Q1 2018 were +50 weeks.
Current Sense Resistors (Metal Strip)
• Lead times on metal strip resistors are starting to reduce, but the market leaders are still +50 weeks for some sizes and
values. Additional capacity is coming on line in Mexico that will continue to contribute to lower lead times in 1H 2019.Q1 2019 MLCC & Resistor Chip Market Update
Causal Factors
Product Lifecycles
Constrained & Allocated Products
Alternative MLCC Design Options
Final Thoughts – Market ObservationsAssess Your Options
Is Your Design Affected by the MLCC Shortage?
Be prepared for price and lead-time increases
Y
Qualify Alternate Suppliers Immediately.
Can you accept an Alternate Supplier Evaluate Upgrades –
Y . - Can you take a higher voltage part?
or a Product Upgrade?
. - Can you take a tighter tolerance part?
- Is AECQ200 a must or an option?
N - Is a Flexible termination product required?
Can you accept a Smaller Package? Y Determine if your pad layout will
accommodate 0402 or smaller
N
First option – smaller pads
Can you Re-Design? Y Second option – alternative technology
N
Strategically align with a strong distribution partner, don’t inflate your requirementsWhat are Your Alternatives
Alternative Capacitor Technologies
Affected Voltage and
o Tantalum (MnO2) Capacitance Range
• Cost effective when de-rated properly (50% voltage) for Constrained and
• A-case generally fits 1206 pads Allocated MLCCs
o Polymer Tantalum
• Low ESR
• No ignition
Power
• High capacitance Capacitors
• (10%-20% V de-rating)
o Aluminum Polymer
• Very low ESR
Ceramic
• Good for low voltage applications Capacitors
o Film MLCC
• Good for higher voltages
• Robust with long life
o SMT Aluminum Electrolytic
• Good for bulk decoupling and higher voltagesQ1 2019 MLCC & Resistor Chip Market Update
Causal Factors
Product Lifecycles
Constrained & Allocated Products
Alternative MLCC Design Options
Final Thoughts – Market ObservationsGeneral Market Observations
Economic expansion is being driven by fundamental, underlying demand – all segments.
Other increased revenue drivers have seen supplier price increases, both from a cost and resale perspective. Cost
increases are due to increases in labor and raw materials. Resale increases have been supported through higher
component cost coupled with a strong seller’s market. These conditions are likely to continue throughout 2019.
Of recent note, China 301 tariffs are starting to impact the market...both positively and negatively. Roughly 25%-30% of
the electronic components sold in the U.S. are manufactured in China – each will be burdened with tariff rates as high as
25%. Top line growth in 2019 will be artificially increased as a result of the tariffs, and will remain at inflated levels as long
as the tariffs exist, maybe even one inventory turn longer.
The combination of supplier product exits and slow capacity adds have created long lead times in many product areas
such as MLCCs and resistor chips. Long lead time scenarios will likely remain throughout 2019 – inconsistent increases
and decreases in lead time will cause more erratic supply chain management issues. However, overall 2019 market
conditions remain positive with 5%-7% growth expectations.
In 2019 the five major growth drivers of the electronics industry will be:
- Automotive (enhanced electronic content over new car builds)
- IoT (seemingly every electronic gadget is being connected to the internet)
- Communication (5G data and cellular communication infrastructure)
- Data Centers (computing horsepower to support IoT and Comms businesses)
- Military & Commercial Aviation (Gov’t funded MIL awards (2-5 year forecasts))Thank You TTI, Inc.
The Specialist in Electronic
1.800.CALL.TTI Component Distribution
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