WAREHOUSE AND INDUSTRIAL - MARKET RUSSIA | MOSCOW - Colliers International
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RUSSIA | MOSCOW WAREHOUSE AND INDUSTRIAL MARKET YEAR-END REVIEW 2019
2
Warehouse and industrial market | Colliers International
January 2020 | Moscow
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
2017 2018 2019
Total warehouse stock, million sq m 13,551 15,371 16,623
Completions, thousand sq m 676 541 798
Total take-up, thousand sq m 1,264 1,461 1,419
Volume of lease deals, thousand sq m 968 1,134 1,192
Volume of sale deals, thousand sq m 296 327 227
Vacancy,% 7.9% 6.2% 3.7%
Average rental rate, RUB/sq m/year 3,600 3,700 3,950
OpEx, RUB/sq m/year** 900 –1,200 900 – 1,200 900 – 1,200
Average sale price, RUB/sq m** 35,000 35,000 40,000
* Excl VAT (20%) and OpEx Source: Colliers International
** Excl. VAT (20%)
SUPPLY
In 2019, supply in the warehouse and industrial market increased by 798,000 sq m
including 347,000 sq m of speculative warehouse space. Four large distribution centers
were commissioned in 2019: DC Leroy Merlin (140,000 sq m), DC VkusVill (108,000
sq m), DC Ikea (90,000 sq m) and DC Lenta (71,000 sq m). The share of BTS-projects
reached 54%.
Speculative construction has been decreasing annually since 2014. Tenants’ higher
quality requirements have been an obstacle for development of speculative market,
while, at the same time, this has been an incentive for built-to-suit/built-to-rent
construction.
CHART 1: 200
181 179
141
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Thousand sq m
180
BY QUARTERS, 2019 160
140
115
120
100 90
80
60 44 48
40
20
0
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Speculative BTS3
Warehouse and industrial market | Colliers International
January 2020 | Moscow
CHART 2:
NEW CONSTRUCTION
IN SPECULATIVE
AND BTS-FORMAT,
2012 – 2019
CHART 3:
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
OF TAKE-UP AND NEW
CONSTRUCTION, 2019
TABLE 1: WAREHOUSE COMPLEXES COMMISSIONED IN 2019
NAME DEVELOPER SIZE, SQ M TYPE OF BUILDING LOCATION
34 km from MKAD,
DC Leroy Merlin in Beliy Rast PNK Group 140,000 BTS
Dmitrovskoe hwy
0.5 km from MKAD,
DC VkusVill in Veshki PNK Group 108,064 BTS
Altufievskoe hwy
33 km from MKAD,
DC in Solnechnogosrk A Plus Development 90,000 BTS
Leningradskoe hwy
33 km from MKAD,
DC Lenta in Valishchevo PNK Group 71,420 BTS
Simpheropolskoe hwy
25 km from MKAD,
Atlant Park, building 32 PSK Atlant Park 54,485 Speculative
Gorkovskoe hwy
26 km from MLAD,
PNK Park Koledino PNK Group 53,316 Speculative
Simpheropolskoe hwy
Logistics Park Vnukovo, 23 km from MKAD,
Logistic Partners 51,000 Speculative
phase 3, bld 11 - 14 Kievskoe hwy
Source: Colliers International4
Warehouse and industrial market | Colliers International
January 2020 | Moscow
TAKE-UP
Total take-up in the Moscow region amounted to 1.4 million sq Lease deals dominated in the Moscow region and amounted to
m. The main drivers of warehouse space consumption were 84% of the total take-up. The remaining 16% was sold to end-
retailers (29%). The share of logistic companies demonstrated users. The share of built-to-suit/built-to-rent deals reached 17%
rapid growth of 8 p.p. to reach 26%. The activity of logistics (+3.85 p.p. compared to 2018).
companies grew due to the development of the online-sales
The highest take-up was in the south (627,000 sq m) and north
market. New distribution centres and space for last-mile delivery
(231,000 sq m) of the Moscow region. In Moscow and near the
are being built in the Moscow region in order to speed up delivery
MKAD 30,000 sq m of warehouse premises was consumed.
of products to end-users. Online-retailers are focused on city-
logistics (1,000 – 5,000 sq m), which explained the low share
of this segment in the total take-up (6%). More than 25% of total
deals involved food&drink operators.
CHART 4:
DISTRIBUTION OF DEALS
BY TYPE, 2018 - 2019
TABLE 2: BIGGEST DEALS IN MOSCOW REGION, 2019
NAME SECTOR FORMAT SIZE, SQ M PROPERTY
VkusVill Retail BTR-lease 108,064 PNK Park Veshki
Tablogix Logistic Renewal 56,983 MLP Tomilino
Mistral Manufacturing Sale 53,313 PNK Park Koledino
Faberlic Retail Renewal 48,563 MLP Northern Domodedovo
PTI Retail Sale 45,767 WC Mareven Food
Bacardi Distribution Renewal 42,969 WC Raven Istra
John Deere Manufacturing Renewal 41,900 South Gate
Yandex.Market Online-retail BTR-lease 39,131 LP Sofyino, building 3.1
Sportmaster Retail Lease 35,044 Industrial Park Kholmogory
KSE Logistics Lease 32,611 WC Tomilino Development
Centos Logistics Lease 30,210 Kryokshino Logistic Park5
Warehouse and industrial market | Colliers International
January 2020 | Moscow
CHART 5:
DISTRIBUTION OF LEASE AND SALE
DEALS IN THE MOSCOW REGION,
2014 – 2019
CHART 6:
DISTRIBUTION OF LEASE AND SALE
DEALS BY BUSINESS-SECTOR, 2019
1%1%
2% 2%
3%
4%
26%
5%
6%
Food and beverages
Fashion
Cosmetics 7%
Sport equipment
Pharma
Household appliances
17%
Goods for pets
10%
Other
Alcohol
Goods for children
Furniture 16%
Construction materials6
Warehouse and industrial market | Colliers International
January 2020 | Moscow
VACANCY
The vacancy rate in the Moscow region (class A and B) reached 3.7%, which is 2.5 p.p.
lower than in the previous year.
This decrease was due to the high take-up and insufficient volume of new speculative
construction. Net absorption amounted to 1,185,000 sq m, which points to favorable
conditions in the warehouse market.
The lowest vacancy was in the north-east of the Moscow region (1.1%) and the highest
was in the south-west (10.9%).
CHART 7:
VACANCY RATE, 2012 -2019
RENTAL RATES
The average rental rate in the Moscow region is 3,950 RUB/sq m/year excl. VAT and
OpEx. The highest rental rate (excluding the area within the MKAD) was in the west and
south-west of the region (4,150 RUB/sq m/year excl. VAT and OpEx and 4,000 RUB/sq
m/year excl. VAT and OpEx) respectively.
More rapid growth of rental rates is held back by the fact that a large number of
warehouse complexes in the region have become obsolete. The majority of class A
and B warehouses in the region were built in 2000–2014. More complicated technical
requirements have also led to greater demand for built-to-suit/built-to-rent options.
CHART 8:
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
OF RENTAL RATES,
EXCL. VAT (20%) AND OPEX7
Warehouse and industrial market | Colliers International
January 2020 | Moscow
FORECAST
The Moscow region warehouse market in 2019 demonstrated a positive trend. Business
activity among companies increased leading to a higher demand for large warehouse
units. We expect that the average asking rate for a unit will continue to grow due to
the growth of retail turnover (including online retail) and the development of solvent
demand in the Moscow region and in the regions of Russia. Many federal developers
are choosing centralised logistics models in order to service regional markets from
Moscow. The development of online-retail and city logistics will continue to influence
the warehouse market in the Moscow region. The Moscow market (inside MKAD) will
show rapid growth. In the short-term, the volume of class A and B warehouse stock will
increase twofold.
In 2020 volume of new speculative construction will increase, however this won’t
become a tendency. Vacancy will get to 3.5%. Rental rates will continue to grow and
would be in range 4,300 – 4,500 RUB/sq m/year excl. VAT and OpEx.
TABLE 3: THE BIGGEST SPECULATIVE WAREHOUSE COMPLEXES TO BE COMMISSIONED IN 2020
NAME DEVELOPER SIZE, SQ M LOCATION
PNK Park MKAD – M4 PNK Group 117,504 0.5 km from MKAD, M4 - Don
PNK Park Medvedkovo, bld 1, 2 PNK Group 104,895 Moscow, 1.4 km from MKAD
Warehouse complex Kholmogory,
Rusich 90,000 31 km from MKAD, Yaroslavskoe hwy
phase 2, building 1
Logistic park Vnukovo 2, bld 9-10,
Logistic Partners 64,185 23 km from MKAD, Kievskoe hwy
15-17
Atlant park, bld 33 PSK Atlant Park 45,936 25 km from MKAD, Gorkovskoe hwyCONTACTS
WAREHOUSE & INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH DEPARTMENT MARKETING & PR DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT
Veronika Lezhneva Olga Bakulina
Svetlana Pronina Director Regional Director
Regional Operations Director +7 495 258 5151 +7 495 258 5151
+7 495 258 5151 Veronika.Lezhneva@colliers.com Olga.Bakulina@colliers.com
Svetlana.Pronina@colliers.com
Artyom Shikunov
Analyst
+7 495 258 5151
Artyom.Shikunov@colliers.com
Copyright © 2020 Colliers International 123112 Moscow
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