What Has the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana Achieved So Far?

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What Has the Pradhan Mantri                                                                             targeting and delivery through schemes
                                                                                                        such as PAHAL and the Give-it-up cam-
                                                                                                        paign.2 While there have been some issues
Ujjwala Yojana Achieved So Far?                                                                         such as differing claims on the actual
                                                                                                        saving from schemes like PAHAL (CAG
                                                                                                        2016), it is generally accepted that these
Ashwini Dabadge, Ashok Sreenivas, Ann Josey                                                             have helped reduce leakages in the LPG
                                                                                                        delivery system. These reform measures

                                                        T
The central government’s flagship                              he Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana         and relatively lower crude oil prices pro-
programme to provide free                                      (PMUY) was launched in 2016 to           vide an opportunity for the concerted
                                                               distribute five crore liquefied petro-   connection drive to translate to sustained
liquefied petroleum gas
                                                        leum gas (LPG) connections to poor              adoption of LPG for many.
connections has been in operation                       women “free of cost” by March 2019. As            It has been about two years since the
for two years, providing more than                      of early April 2018 more than 3.5 crore         launch of PMUY, and it is a good time to
3.5 crore free LPG connections to                       connections were provided under the             assess the programme and try to identify
                                                        scheme. Encouraged by the rapid release         necessary course corrections, if any, to
poor women. This much-needed
                                                        of connections, the central government          ensure that the programme’s objectives
scheme is a major step to reduce                        revised the target and scope of the scheme      are met. This is also important because
indoor air pollution, drudgery                          to eight crore connections by March 2020.       the programme involves a public invest-
faced by women, and one that                            Under the scheme, the union government          ment of over `12,000 crore3 and it is nec-
                                                        bears the connection cost of `1,600 per         essary to ensure that this investment
promises to extend LPG access.
                                                        connection, and each household pays             realises its social objectives.
However, little is known about                          about `1,500 for the stove and the first
the progress of the scheme. Has it                      LPG cylinder.                                   Assessing PMUY
led to sustained use of clean fuels                        The announcement of PMUY and the             There are two levels at which PMUY can
                                                        recent increase of its target, marks a          be assessed: the first is against the stated
among poor households? There is
                                                        significant shift in the government’s           objective of disbursing connections, while
need for more information about                         approach to providing access to clean           the second is against the intended objec-
the scheme in the public domain                         cooking fuels. For the first time, it chose     tive of tackling the adverse health effects
for a comprehensive evaluation                          to aggressively pursue providing modern         of using traditional solid fuels.
                                                        cooking fuels to all Indian households.            On the first parameter, Table 1 shows
and mid-course correction.
                                                        This is an important step since house-          the status of LPG connections in the coun-
                                                        hold air pollution (HAP) arising from           try when PMUY was launched. Given that
                                                        combustion of solid fuels for cooking is        1.6 crore LPG connections were released to
                                                        a major contributor to four of the top          below poverty line (BPL) households under
                                                        five causes of mortality and morbidity          various state government schemes till
                                                        in India, and HAP is also a significant         April 2016, it is evident that PMUY’s target
                                                        contributor to outdoor air pollution            of five crore connections to poor house-
                                                        (IHME 2017; ICMR, PHFI, and IHME 2017;          holds in three years is very ambitious, and
                                                        IIT Bombay, HEI and IHME 2018). Recent          a major step to increase LPG connection
                                                        research suggests that providing clean          coverage among poor households.
                                                        cooking fuels to all can be a highly cost-      Table 1: Status of LPG Connections in the Country
                                                        effective health intervention (Smith and        as on 1 April 2016
                                                        Sagar 2014; Prayas 2018). In addition,          Parameter                            Total Urban Rural
                                                                                                        Number of registered LPG
                                                        collection and use of solid fuels for cook-
                                                                                                        connections in crore                  20     –      –
                                                        ing increases the drudgery and adversely        Number of active LPG
                                                        impacts time-use by women (Desai and            connections in crore                  17    10      7
The authors are grateful to Veena Joshi and             Vanneman 2016; Desai et al 2010). The           Percentage of households
Srihari Dukkipati for their comments on a               scheme also aims at addressing these            with active LPG connections           62   118    36
                                                                                                        Number of BPL households
draft version of this article.                          issues (PIB 2016b).1
                                                                                                        covered under schemes sponsored
Ashwini Dabadge (ashwini.dabadge@prayaspune.               The LPG sector has seen a wave of            by state governments and
org), Ashok Sreenivas (ashok@prayaspune.org)            schemes over the last few years targeted        OMC CSR funds in crore               1.6     –      –
and Ann Josey (ann@prayaspune.org) are with                                                             OMC=oil marketing company, CSR=corporate social
                                                        at various objectives such as eliminating       responsibility.
Prayas (Energy Group), Pune.
                                                        spurious consumers, effective subsidy           Source: Lok Sabha (2016b); PPAC (2016a).

Economic & Political Weekly   EPW   may 19, 2018   vol lIiI no 20                                                                                         69
NOTES

   In this regard, PMUY has broadly been       undertaken by the OMCs. This is chal-          should also be provided in a disaggregated
on track. Over 70% of the target of five       lenging for them, but also presents them       manner (state, district, block) to help
crore connections have been disbursed in       an opportunity to significantly deepen         address barriers to adoption.
about two-thirds of the intended time. In      their LPG market. To be able to assess            Indeed, even at the national level (that
fact, almost 60% of the new LPG domes-         these dimensions of the programme, it is       is, going beyond just PMUY beneficiaries),
tic connections given across the country       necessary to have access to fairly rich        LPG consumption data is only disaggre-
in 2016–17 were PMUY connections (PPAC         data in the public domain. It is here that     gated to the state level, but is not availa-
2017a). This encouraging start to the          it becomes challenging to assess the           ble along the crucial axis of urban and
programme has prompted the govern-             effectiveness of PMUY.                         rural households. Since over 85% of rural
ment to increase the target to provide                                                        households used biomass, coal or kerosene
three crore additional connections over        Information Gaps                               (in comparison to about 25% of urban
an additional year.                            PMUY connection data is provided only          households) as their primary cooking fuel
   However, there have also been some          at a state level and no district-wise          according to the 2011 Census, it is clear
concerns raised around identifying the         disaggregation is available. In contrast,      that this problem is primarily rural in
beneficiaries under the scheme using the       other government schemes such as the           nature and therefore, a rural–urban
Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC).4           Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti                breakdown of overall LPG consumption
This includes concerns around errors in        Yojana (DDUGJY)5 and Pradhan Mantri            and that of PMUY households is critical
the SECC data and pressures from the           Awas Yojana6 (PMAY) provide informa-           to understanding progress in uptake of
oil-marketing companies (OMCs) to meet         tion about the progress of the respective      modern cooking fuels.
and exceed targets resulting in dilution       schemes at the district and village level.        Other relevant information, such as
of beneficiary identification processes        Progress is regularly tracked for the          service quality related information (aver-
(FLDI 2016a, 2016b).                           various programmes under the house-            age time taken for providing connec-
   While Aadhaar-based “know-your-con-         hold electrification scheme and infra-         tions, average time for refills, proportion
sumer” steps and bank account details          structure development schemes such             of consumers receiving home delivery
of consumers are necessary to prevent          as DDUGJY, Saubhagya, and Integrated           services, instances of underweight cylin-
spurious connections and LPG diversion,        Power Development Scheme using local           ders reported by distributors and con-
they can be another barrier for poor house-    representatives and updated on the resp-       sumers, number of complaints received,
holds as highlighted by studies (Parikh        ective portals (MoP 2015, 2016). This          complaints addressed, nature of the com-
et al 2016). Some steps have been initiated    makes it easier to assess the progress of      plaints, etc) and safety-related informa-
to coordinate Aadhaar applications with        these schemes and provide feedback to          tion (inspections conducted, accidents
PMUY applications (MoPNG 2017a). Never-        improve the programmes.                        reported, fatalities, compensation/insur-
theless, significant efforts and time would       The most important datapoint to             ance claims settled, etc) are also not pub-
be needed to extend connections to             understand whether PMUY beneficiary            licly available. This information should be
poor households in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar,       households are using LPG regularly is the      collated and made available for each dis-
Rajasthan and some North East states,          rate of LPG consumption by such house-         tributor by the OMCs with aggregated
which have Aadhaar coverage lower than         holds. Such data is not reported on a          reports at the state, district, and block
than 88%, LPG coverage as a primary            regular basis for all states. The only         level for each type of distributor.
fuel less than the national average, and       information available for the rate of con-        Considering that PMUY is a bold, new
also relatively more socio-economically        sumption for PMUY households is an             initiative, it is to be expected that there
deprived households in rural areas             average estimate for consumption for           would be some learning along the way
(UIDAI 2018; MoRD nd).                         one year from the date of release of the       and a need for course correction. Availa-
   Notwithstanding such concerns, it is        connection. The average estimate for           bility of detailed data about PMUY would
fair to conclude that the objective of pro-    the country, released by the Ministry of       enable such a course correction. In the
viding connections to poor households is       Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) is           absence of such information, PMUY can
broadly being achieved. However, the           4.32 (14.2 kg) cylinders in the first year     only be assessed based on indirect indi-
real social objective of a scheme such as      of adoption (Lok Sabha 2018). Estimates        cators and scattered data available from
PMUY can only be achieved if households        for states with a rate of consumption          various sources. This is attempted in the
not only get LPG connections but use it        higher than the average were also pro-         next section, though the findings can
for most, preferably all, of their cooking     vided. However, it is not clear from this      only be seen as indicative rather than
needs on a sustained basis. Converting         estimate whether households consistently       firm, given the indirect methods used in
connections to sustained use requires over-    use the fuel after adoption. An estimate       the analysis.
coming a few barriers such as affordability,   of number of refills from PMUY connec-
reliability, accountability, and viability     tions for every year, and not just the first   Unrealistic Coverage
(Dabadge et al 2016).                          year of adoption, would have been a more       A connection-focused approach has re-
   A programme such as PMUY is also            appropriate datapoint to analyse LPG use       sulted in a few interesting anomalies.
perhaps the largest ever social programme      by PMUY households. The information            According to data submitted in Parliament,
70                                                                                 may 19, 2018   vol lIiI no 20   EPW   Economic & Political Weekly
NOTES
Figure 1: Statewise Variations for Inactive Connections                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 to the number of inactive connections
                             300                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        that is evident and this is perhaps some-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Inactive connections as share of total
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Active Connections                                                      35%
                             250                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        thing that needs to be understood better.
Active connections (lakhs)

                                                                                                Inactive (%)                                                                                                                                                                      30%
                             200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Anomalous LPG Consumption

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           connections
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  25%
                             150                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  20%                                                   The possibility of a rapid increase in
                             100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   15%                                                  connections leading to diversion is par-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  10%                                                   tially reinforced by an analysis of LPG
                              50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5%                                              consumption data per consumer across
                               0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0%                                               different states for April to December 2017
                                              Nagaland

                                          Uttar Pradesh

                                           Maharashtra
                                                 Punjab
                                            Chandigarh
                                                 Sikkim

                                            Meghalaya

                                   Jammu and Kashmir
                                                   Delhi
                                           Uttarakhand
                                               Manipur
                                                 Assam
                                   Andaman & Nicobar
                                                    Goa

                                               Mizoram
                                                 Tripura

                                                 Gujarat
                                             Telangana
                                               Haryana
                                       Madhya Pradesh

                                        Daman and Diu
                                           West Bengal
                                    Dadra Nagar Haveli
                                      Himachal Pradesh

                                     Arunachal Pradesh

                                        Andhra Pradesh

                                             Jharkhand
                                            Puducherry

                                                 Odisha
                                          Chhattisgarh
                                                  Kerala
                                            Tamil Nadu
                                             Karnataka
                                                   Bihar
                                              Rajasthan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (Figure 2). Some of the potentially anoma-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        lous points that emerge are that per-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        consumer sales in Uttar Pradesh (73 kg)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        are higher than the all-India average (72
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        kg); per-consumer sales in Bihar (73 kg)
Source: PPAC (2017a).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        are higher than states such as Telangana
Figure 2: Average LPG Sales per Active Domestic Consumer, April–December 2017                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (59 kg), Andhra Pradesh (60 kg), and
                             100
                                    Per-consumer sales April-December 2017                                                                                               Average                                                                                                                                                        Himachal Pradesh (67 kg) and per-con-
                             80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         sumer sales in Rajasthan are similar to
kg per consumer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Tamil Nadu (70 kg). In contrast, according
                             60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        to the Census of 2011, Andhra Pradesh,
                             40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu are
                             20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         states that had a higher proportion of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        primary LPG users in total households
                               0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        while Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan
                                                                                                                                                                                            Maharashtra

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Uttar Pradesh
                                                    Bihar

                                                            Chhattisgarh

                                                                           Gujarat

                                                                                     Haryana

                                                                                                                  Jammu and Kashmir

                                                                                                                                                                           Madhya Pradesh

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Odisha

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Punjab

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Rajasthan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Tamil Nadu

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Telangana

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Uttarakhand

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                West Bengal
                                   Andhra Pradesh

                                                                                                                                      Jharkhand

                                                                                                                                                  Karnataka

                                                                                                                                                                Kerala
                                                                                               Himachal Pradesh

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        had lower LPG users in total households.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Given the disparity in economic develop-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ment, and hence affordability of LPG,
Source: PPAC (2018).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        across Indian states, the aforementioned
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        seems to indicate diversion of LPG. These
“active”7 LPG connections in urban India                                                                                                                                 2018–19 itself (MoPNG 2018). Although the                                                                                                                      numbers are also at odds with the results
in November 2015 (a few months before                                                                                                                                    net of beneficiaries has been widened to                                                                                                                       of a study commissioned by the Petroleum
the commencement of PMUY) were al-                                                                                                                                       include more households, such a move                                                                                                                           Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), which
ready more than the number of urban                                                                                                                                      might only lead to a rush in achieving                                                                                                                         showed that around 90% of households
households in India (Lok Sabha 2016a).                                                                                                                                   connection targets. This raises questions                                                                                                                      without LPG connections that were sur-
While connection coverage of a little                                                                                                                                    about the effectiveness of a purely con-                                                                                                                       veyed in many districts of Bihar, Uttar
over 100% may be understandable as                                                                                                                                       nection-focused approach.                                                                                                                                      Pradesh, and Rajasthan cited the high
peri-urban LPG distributors may also be                                                                                                                                     An interesting aspect of the LPG sector                                                                                                                     refill price of LPG as a barrier to using it
catering to some rural consumers, cover-                                                                                                                                 is also that there are a significant num-                                                                                                                      (CRISIL 2016).
age of over 150% for urban areas in                                                                                                                                      ber of consumers who are registered but                                                                                                                           However, it should be acknowledged
states such as Himachal Pradesh, Punjab,                                                                                                                                 not “active.” As of April 2016, when PMUY                                                                                                                      the annual9 per-consumer consumption
Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh indicates                                                                                                                                    was launched, there were already 3.55                                                                                                                          in Bihar (117 kg), which was higher than
that connection levels were already very                                                                                                                                 crore “inactive” connections in the country                                                                                                                    the national average (106 kg) a few years
high even before PMUY commenced.8 Even                                                                                                                                   (PPAC 2017a). This had increased to 3.58                                                                                                                       ago (Lok Sabha 2016b), is now comparable
at the state level, recent connection data                                                                                                                               crore by April 2017 and 3.82 crore by                                                                                                                          to the national average, perhaps due to
indicates that it has exceeded 100% cov-                                                                                                                                 January 2018 (PPAC 2017a, 2018). The                                                                                                                           initiatives such as PAHAL.
erage in states such as Punjab, Haryana,                                                                                                                                 number of inactive connections is com-
Kerala, and Telangana (PPAC 2018). These                                                                                                                                 parable to the total number of PMUY con-                                                                                                                       Design and Affordability
data suggest that connections do not                                                                                                                                     nections released and accounts for 15%                                                                                                                         Various surveys indicate that the share
necessarily indicate that households are                                                                                                                                 of the total registered connections in the                                                                                                                     of total registered LPG consumers who
moving away from using solid fuels for                                                                                                                                   country. The number of inactive connec-                                                                                                                        use LPG as their primary cooking fuel
cooking, but that the connections are                                                                                                                                    tions also shows wide variations across                                                                                                                        is about 60%10 (IIPS and ICF 2017; PPAC
possibly being used for other purposes.                                                                                                                                  states (Figure 1). It varies from a high of                                                                                                                    2016a): a percentage largely unchanged
   Moreover, under PMUY, the union gov-                                                                                                                                  about 35% in an urban area such as                                                                                                                             since 2011. This shows that many con-
ernment has the ambitious target of                                                                                                                                      Chandigarh to a low of around 6% in                                                                                                                            sumers who could afford to pay for an
disbursing three crore connections in                                                                                                                                    West Bengal. There is no obvious pattern                                                                                                                       LPG connection also could not transition
Economic & Political Weekly                                                          EPW                    may 19, 2018                                      vol lIiI no 20                                                                                                                                                                                                     71
NOTES

Figure 3: Trends in LPG Consumption (2015–16 = 100)                                                               estimate. This is another indicator that
140                                                                                                               PMUY consumers are perhaps consum-
                                                                                                                  ing much less LPG than other Indian LPG
130
                                     Active LPG consumers
                                                                                                                  consumers, pointing to issues of afford-
120                                                                                                               ability and reliability of service.
                                                                                                                     In addition to these indirect indicators
110
                                                                                                                  of PMUY consumers not shifting to sus-
                                                                  Domestic LPG consumption per month
100
                                                                                                                  tained use of LPG, there have been vari-
                                                                                                                  ous field-visit-based media reports that
 90                                                                                                               indicate that refill adoption is low among
                         LPG consumption per consumer per month
                                                                                                                  PMUY beneficiaries (Pandey et al 2017;
 80
   2015–16                                         2016–17                                            April–      Malhotra 2017; Kishore 2017; Jha 2017).
                                                                                                  December 2017
                                                                                                                  Thus, in spite of the official figure of
Source: PPAC (2016a, 2017a, 2018).
                                                                                                                  about 80% of PMUY beneficiaries opting
to being primary LPG users. High upfront                    the use of LPG. This is a crucial parameter           for at least one refill (Lok Sabha 2018), it
costs and high refill costs are both cited                  to track and it would affect the sustain-             appears that the number of refills are far
as the reasons for not using LPG by                         ability of the programme.                             from sufficient to meet the cooking
roughly 85% of households surveyed in                                                                             needs of the household.
CRISIL (2016).                                              Trends in Consumption
   Under PMUY, beneficiaries have the                       Since the launch of PMUY, overall domestic            LPG Distribution
option of getting the cooking stove and                     LPG consumption in the country has                    The LPG distributor is the customer’s link
first LPG cylinder from the OMCs via the                    shown an upward trend. The average                    to the LPG supply chain. Thus, unless the
LPG distributor on an interest-free equated                 monthly domestic LPG sales increased                  distributor is able to function effectively
monthly instalment (EMI) basis (PIB                         from 1.4 million tonnes (MT) in 2015–16,              and is held accountable for their servic-
2016a). The EMIs are expected to be re-                     to 1.6 MT in 2016–17 and 1.7 MT during                es, the ambitious programme to supply
covered from subsidies on future cylinder                   the period April–December 2017 (PPAC                  LPG to a large number of unserved or un-
refills. This leads to a structural problem.                2016a, 2017a, 2018). However, the num-                derserved households is unlikely to fruc-
Since stove and associated expenses cost                    ber of active LPG connections has gone                tify. Lessons from the electricity sector
around `1,500 and the subsidy per refill                    up much faster during the same period                 can be valuable in ensuring mid-course
is in the range of around `200 to `300, it                  due to the rapid disbursement of connec-              correction. Concerted drives to increase
would take five to seven refills for the                    tions under PMUY. As a result, the per-               access to electricity across the globe re-
loan to be repaid. During this period,                      consumer consumption of LPG has re-                   lied on financially viable and healthy
beneficiaries are expected to pay the full                  duced over time from 9.1 kg per month                 utilities (Barnes 2007).
unsubsidised price of the refill. Since                     in 2015–16 to 8 kg per month in 2017.                    The PPAC-commissioned study had
PMUY beneficiaries would typically be                       This is illustrated in Figure 3.                      identified that the distance to the LPG
poor households, they would find it ex-                        This suggests that LPG consumption of              distributor and long waiting time to get
tremely difficult to come back for refills                  newer consumers—who are primarily                     a refill are barriers to adoption of LPG
if they have to buy LPG at unsubsidised                     PMUY beneficiaries—is lower than what                 (CRISIL 2016), further underscoring the
prices five to seven times. Assuming a                      it was earlier, and that newer PMUY con-              importance of the location and account-
PMUY consumer avails 4.32 refills in the                    nections may not be translating to con-               ability of the distributor. The LPG distri-
first year, this implies a payment of                       sistent use, even to the extent of earlier            bution guidelines, introduced after the
`2,500 to `3,000 for the period. A BPL                      connections. This may be aggravated by                survey, now mandate all distributors,
consumer using 30 units to 50 units of                      a steady increase in the price of even                except the “durgam kshetra” distributors,
electricity per month pays about half                       subsidised LPG, which grew by 12% be-                 to home deliver LPG cylinders (MoPNG
this amount to meet their basic electricity                 tween April and December 2017 (MoPNG                  2016). It would be useful to conduct a
needs in any state in India. Perhaps, this                  2017b; PPAC 2017b).                                   survey now to see how well this is imple-
is the reason why OMCs have recently                           The national average LPG consumption               mented in rural and remote areas.
decided not to collect EMIs for the first                   per consumer was about 7.3 cylinders                     LPG distributors are currently classi-
six refills (Bhaskar 2018), though it seems                 per year in 2015–16, as against a norma-              fied as “shehri” (urban), “rurban” (rural–
this would, at best, only postpone the                      tive expectation of about 12 cylinders if             urban), “gramin” (rural) or durgam
problem rather than address it.                             it were used for all cooking,11 indicating            kshetra, with the criteria for opening a
   Reports indicate that about 65%–70%                      that LPG was meeting only about 60% to                distributorship gradually weakening from
of PMUY beneficiaries have availed the                      80% of the normative cooking needs                    shehri to rurban to gramin to durgam
EMI option (Bhaskar 2018; Sharma 2017)                      even before PMUY. Official estimates in-              kshetra. In addition, there are some dis-
but it is not clear if these consumers man-                 dicate that PMUY beneficiaries consume                tributors classified under the erstwhile
age to pay the loan amount and sustain                      only 35% to 50% of even the normative                 Rajiv Gandhi Gramin LPG Vitaran Yojana
72                                                                                                     may 19, 2018   vol lIiI no 20   EPW   Economic & Political Weekly
NOTES

(RGGLVY). While some rurban distributors,               has increased not only because of the          successful in introducing a sustained
who are located in urban areas may also                 lack of amenities in beneficiary house-        change. Indicative evidence suggests that
supply rural consumers, it is expected                  holds but also because of lack of aware-       this is because of issues around afford-
that most rural consumers would be                      ness. The MoPNG has taken cognisance           ability and reliability of LPG supply. A
serviced by one of the other kinds of dis-              of this fact and has recently launched         major concern is the absence of publicly
tributors. While there are about eight                  the LPG panchayat programme to increase        available data about the programme, its
distributors per lakh households in urban               awareness about safety-related issues          progress, and impact. Lack of availability
areas, it seems there are only 6.5 distri-              (PTI 2017). However, a lot more needs to       of such information results in reliance
butors per lakh households in rural areas               be done in order to avoid accidents,           on anecdotal reports to assess the pro-
(SCPNG 2018), in spite of the fact that the             including regular inspections and adher-       gramme. In light of this analysis, we
LPG distributorship guidelines require                  ence to safety procedures. Compliance          suggest the following changes to the
fewer consumers per distributor for rur-                to such procedures should be monitored         PMUY programme in particular and the
ban, gramin and durgam kshetra dis-                     by the OMCs and also reported for every        LPG sector in general.
tributors (MoPNG 2016).                                 distributor. Data related to accidents, loss
   The number of distributors has not                   of life and property and the action taken      Publishing more information: The
kept pace with the increasing number of                 should also be reported publicly.              MoPNG should publish more information
active LPG consumers as connections are                    In addition to safety, monitoring supply    about the PMUY programme and the LPG
disbursed under PMUY. Between April                     and service quality is also paramount.         sector at regular and frequent intervals
2016 and January 2018, the total number                 Though the LPG Marketing Discipline            (say quarterly) disaggregated along vari-
of distributors in the country went up by               Guidelines stipulate actions and penalties     ous dimensions such as by state/district/
9%, while the total number of active LPG                to ensure compliance to procedures and         block, by distributor type, by PMUY/non-
consumers shot up by 31% (PPAC 2016a,                   practices specified by the OMCs, there         PMUY consumers, rural–urban and by
2018). The discrepancy between increase                 are no published reports of compliance         subsidised/non-subsidised consumer type.
in the number of distributors and consum-               to this. Anecdotal evidence suggests that      Examples of the kind of data that should
ers is much worse in some states. For ex-               current mechanisms may not be sufficient       get published include consumption of LPG
ample, in Bihar and Chhattisgarh, the                   to ensure accountability of distributors       by households, details of expenditure on
total number of distributors went up by                 and OMCs to consumers (Pandey et al            the programme, the number of PMUY
only 5% and 18% respectively while the                  2017). Some performance indicators can         consumers who availed of the EMI facility
number of consumers increased by 84%                    be regularly collected and reported on a       and the status of repayment of those
and 91% respectively.12 It is unlikely that             disaggregated basis to ensure accounta-        loans, statistics on key performance in-
distributors would be able to service con-              bility such as the average time taken to       dicators, especially for distributors and
sumers effectively in this situation, and               get connections, average time to obtain        OMCs, aggregate information about LPG
points to a need to increase the number                 refill, and other key parameters.              consumer complaints and their status/
of LPG distributors rapidly in rural areas.                There is also a need for a well-defined     resolution, and data about accidents in-
   While it is necessary to increase the                and fair multi-tiered consumer grievance       volving LPG categorised by their severity.
number of distributors, a couple of other               redressal mechanism, consumer aware-           The data along with analysis reports us-
points also need to be kept in mind.                    ness programmes about the existence of         ing the data should be published online,
First, the distribution business needs to               such a mechanism, and publicly available       with the PMUY portal being the obvious
be viable to ensure that distributors are               information about consumer grievances          choice. In addition, apps can be provided
interested in serving their clients and are             raised and addressed by type (for exam-        to easily access this information as in the
not tempted to use other means, such as                 ple, overcharging, issues with home            case of other government programmes.
diversion, to remain viable. Given the                  delivery services, etc) on a disaggregated     The data should also be available as a
lower density of consumers in rural areas               basis. These are some ingredients that         time-series to enable analysis of trends
and resultant increased costs in deliver-               can help increase accountability of dis-       over time.
ing services to them, and potentially lower             tributors and OMCs.
consumption of such consumers, it is not                                                               Periodic studies: It would be good to
clear whether the distribution business                 Conclusions                                    conduct an independent study periodi-
remains viable in rural areas. An inde-                 PMUY is a bold new initiative that aspires     cally (say, every three years) to under-
pendent study in this matter is desirable               to fundamentally address one of the            stand ground realities regarding the adop-
to explore strategies to ensure that rural              pressing energy–access, health and gen-        tion of LPG (and, more broadly, modern
distribution is a viable proposition.                   der challenges in the country. The broad       cooking fuels) as a primary cooking op-
                                                        picture that emerges is that while the         tion. Such a study can be commissioned
Supply, Service, and Safety                             programme has been successful in intro-        by the PPAC. This would help recalibrate
Given the increase in connections, especi-              ducing a sense of urgency into the tran-       the programme by understanding con-
ally to BPL households, safety has been a               sition to modern cooking fuels and dis-        sumer preferences, problems, barriers,
major concern. The likelihood of accidents              bursing connections, it has been less          affordability issues, service issues, etc.
Economic & Political Weekly   EPW   may 19, 2018   vol lIiI no 20                                                                              73
NOTES

The study can also try to estimate the          initiating discussions on addressing this               7 That is, connections that have had some activity
                                                                                                          in the preceding few months. We refer to con-
changes in air pollution levels in homes        critical issue. More immediately, there is a              nections that are not active as inactive.
and resultant health benefits. Regular          need to rapidly increase the number of                  8 Many states did have state-level subsidised
                                                                                                          connected disbursement programmes before
monitoring of PMUY and publishing of            rural distributorships to enhance the                     PMUY. However, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Uttar
information has also been recommend-            reach of LPG to rural consumers.                          Pradesh were not among them.
ed by the corresponding Parliamentary                                                                   9 As against the earlier figures which are for the
                                                                                                          nine-month period from April to December.
Standing Committee (SCPNG 2018).                Safety, supply, and service: There is a                10 This is an indicative number because of possible
                                                need to bring greater consumer account-                   discrepancies between survey-based estimates
                                                                                                          and PPAC connection data. This number also
Fuel pricing: Studies as recommended            ability of the distribution segment by                    includes PNG users, but they are negligible
above can help inform policy decisions,         instituting appropriate standards of                      compared to LPG users and are mainly present
                                                                                                          in urban areas. There were only 31.6 lakh do-
particularly around the pricing of fuel,        performance for services and multi-tier                   mestic PNG connections in the country at the
as that is likely to be a critical barrier to   grievance handling systems and processes                  end of 2015–16 (PPAC 2016b). The number of
                                                                                                          households is as reported in the LPG profiles
sustained modern fuel adoption in the           to increase accountability, and publishing                published by PPAC.
near to medium term. Various options may        annual reports on grievances addressed                 11 Assumptions for the estimation: per capita use-
                                                                                                          ful cooking energy required: 947 MJ/year; LPG
be considered such as telescopic pricing,       in a disaggregated manner. One such                       stove efficiency: 55%; average family size: 4.5.
cross-subsidies, smaller gas cylinders,         process could be to have annual public                 12 Thus, the consumers per distributor increased
                                                                                                          from 6,500 to almost 11,500 in Bihar, while the
prepaid coupons, targeted subsidies, etc,       hearings for supply and service quality                   same increased from less than 5,500 to more
which may ease cash flow and/or make            at the block or district level. In addition,              than 8,500 in Chhattisgarh.
LPG more affordable. This is also an urgent     incentives and penalties linked to per-
need as more than 50% of the MoPNG              formance and service quality indicators              References
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74                                                                                      may 19, 2018     vol lIiI no 20   EPW   Economic & Political Weekly
NOTES
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