WPD Distribution Future Energy Scenarios 2020 - Methodology November 2020 - Western ...
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WPD Distribution
Future Energy
Scenarios 2020
Methodology
November 2020
westernpower.co.uk
westernpower.co.uk
Distribution Future Summary
Energy Scenarios • Introduction to DFES
• DFES methodology summary
Methodology • Stakeholder engagement
• Data sources and evidence gathering
• Creating the DFES projections
• How the WPD DFES is reconciled to FES 2020
2
westernpower.co.uk
Distribution Future The Distribution Future Energy Scenarios outline
the range of credible futures for connections to the
Energy Scenarios distribution network.
Using a scenario framework consistent with other
Methodology distribution network operators and National Grid ESO
– known as the Future Energy Scenarios or FES –
these local stakeholder informed projections are
created on an annual cycle and encompass changes
in demand, storage and distributed generation,
including electrified transport and heat.
WPD works with Regen to create the Distribution
Future Energy Scenarios for all of our licence areas
on an annual cycle.
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Why Future Energy Scenarios?
The need for scenario based planning
With customer requirements The DFES is used by WPD to
changing in an evolving energy conduct a detailed review of its
system, the DFES is used to network and how it will be
inform strategic network planning impacted by each scenario. This
and investment for an uncertain helps WPD to develop
future. reinforcement solutions to solve
anticipated network constraints in
The DFES builds on historic different years and under different
trends, as well as analyses of the scenarios.
pipeline of near term projects, the
local resource factors and The DFES is also used for RIIO-
stakeholder input to create a ED2 business planning, and to
range of credible scenarios. publicly signpost potential system
flexibility needs.
The DFES also assesses the
potential growth of new technology
connections, such as electric
vehicles and chargers, battery
storage sites and heat pumps.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – Methodology
The four WPD DFES scenarios
Incorporating the FES 2020 scenarios
The National Grid ESO FES Additional local assumptions are
2020 scenarios are used in the made by Regen and the WPD
WPD DFES 2020. The 2020 DFES team. For example, about
scenarios are significantly the deployment of projects in the
different from those used in pipeline, the lifetime of existing
previous WPD DFES studies due projects, and the weighting of
to the introduction of three new spatial factors such as affluence
net zero compliant scenarios by and agricultural land grade.
National Grid.
Three of the scenarios are
Key assumptions are published compliant with the UK
by National Grid ESO for each of government net zero emissions
the four scenarios. These are target for 2050. Each of these
incorporated in the WPD DFES scenarios achieves emissions
2020. The four FES 2020 reductions in a different way.
scenarios are defined by different
‘speeds of decarbonisation’ and
‘level of societal change’.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – Methodology
A whole system approach
Building on the Net Zero South Wales innovation study
The Net Zero South Wales 2050 Learnings have been taken forward in
innovation project was undertaken as a the WPD DFES 2020. In WPD DFES
partnership between Regen, WPD and 2020 over 3,000 small areas were
WWU with funding from the Network assessed, incorporating a key
Innovation Allowance programme. recommendation from the innovation
study for greater spatial granularity.
This innovation project brought two
networks together, developing insights The WPD DFES results can be directly
and value from an integrated approach aggregated up to local authority areas,
to gas and electricity scenario planning so that stakeholders or other networks
and exploring an increasingly flexible can view results most relevant to them.
and cross-vector system.
The number of technologies assessed
was expanded based on learnings from
the innovation study. Multiple low carbon
heating technologies were assessed, as
well as a full picture of waste treatment
processes, including the potential for
biomethane development.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – Methodology
WPD DFES Methodology
Methodology in brief Update underlying
scenario data
Overview February - March
Local factors are used, with assumptions from National Grid FES, to project
the deployment of each technology type for four scenarios at a granular level.
1. Baseline: 3. Stakeholder engagement
Data is collected on the current Local information is collected from Reconciliation between Stakeholder engagement
FES and DFES April – May
installed capacity, or number of consultation with developers and a February Annual Event report published
installed units, for each individual survey of local authorities, this is process
technology type. combined with analysis of existing
trends and spatial data.
2. Pipeline
Proposed sites that may connect in 4. Scenario projections DFES publication Scenario analysis and data validation
the near term are individually (2020-2050) November - December June - October
Suite of documents
assessed and developers contacted Near term technology deployment is plus data published
where possible. extrapolated to create the FES publication
projections at the ESA level in the July
New scenarios published
medium and long term, incorporating
local resource factors.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – Methodology
Electricity Supply Areas
Spatial granularity
DFES analysis is produced from An ESA is: The geographical area
the bottom up, using small supplied by a Primary Substation
geographic cells called ‘Electricity (which contains WPD owned
Supply Areas’ (ESAs). distribution substations) providing
supplies at a voltage below 33 kV;
Each ESA represents a block of or a customer directly supplied at
demand and generation as visible 132, 66 or 33 kV or by a dedicated
from the distribution network. This Primary Substation.
way, projected new connections by
scenario are linked to specific parts These network-informed spatial
of the network, allowing for areas are also split by local
detailed network analysis. authority borders. This means the
WPD DFES 2020 results may be
The attributes of the ESA informs directly aggregated up to local
the deployment of each individual authority areas.
technology type, for instance local
windspeed or number of houses. Individual ESAs, split by
local authority borders
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – Methodology
Stakeholder engagement
Overview
WPD and Regen ran four Developers of sites in the
consultation events in May 2020, pipeline were contacted where
engaging with 266 attendees in possible, including sites with
webinars across the four licence planning applications.
areas.
Wider industry consultation is
Regen also contacted every local also completed for each
authority in the WPD licence technology where possible.
areas to collate data on new Information is gathered
developments predominantly through direct
conversations as well as through
As part of the discussion with existing industry networks and
local authorities, local authorities events.
were surveyed for plans or
policies supporting low carbon
infrastructure.
A report summarising the consultation webinars and the feedback received are
available on the WPD website:
westernpower.co.uk/distribution-future-energy-scenarios-regional-information
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – Methodology
Stakeholder engagement
Stakeholder consultation events
The consultation events were After the events, a summary
held online in May 2020, with report was published, detailing
266 participants across the four the content covered, as well as
webinars. how the comments raised would
be incorporated into the DFES
The webinars participants had analysis.
the opportunity to answer live
polls regarding detailed For example, participants
assumptions made in the DFES suggested that the large number
analysis. of potential solar projects could
begin to connect from 2022, and
The participants were also able that battery storage would be
to raise questions and critiques superseded by other energy
during and after these sessions. storage technologies in the
future.
A report summarising the consultation webinars and the feedback received are
available on the WPD website:
westernpower.co.uk/distribution-future-energy-scenarios-regional-information
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyEngagement with local authorities
Using local authority plans in DFES
New housing and non-domestic developments are sources of New developments process overview
new demand on the electricity network. Local authority
development plans are incorporated into DFES to include the Provide local
localised impact on the distribution network. authority with
Assumptions
new Check new Assign
Data collection applied to
developments data against developments
produce low,
data from the most recent to ESAs (using
Regen created an online database of all new development data previous local locational
medium and
collected during earlier DFES studies. This was then shared with high growth
study, request documents data)
scenarios
the local authority planners. Updated data provided by the local verification or
update
authorities is verified against most recent local documents, and
classified by:
“
• Development type:
• Domestic or non-domestic by individual use classes
• Location Over 10,000 new development
”
• Total number of homes or floorspace
• Development stage
records were processed as part of
• Plan period WPD DFES 2020
• Land type
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyEngagement with local authorities
Assessing local authority local plans
Creating deployment rates for the four scenarios
Once processed and verified, the Historic trends in new developments
individual developments are are also used to provide estimates
projected to be built at a schedule for a low, medium, and high level of
based on the source data. deployment. These are then
A delay in this schedule is applied to assigned to the FES 2020 scenarios
sites in the medium and long term – for the near and medium term as
which varied by scenario to capture detailed below:
the envelope of uncertainty. Steady Progression
Stakeholder feedback also Low deployment
suggested some delays in the near Consumer Transformation
term due to COVID-19. Medium deployment
The delay methodology means that System Transformation
the precise spatial data and scale of Medium deployment
development is maintained, but the
period over which the sites are built Leading the Way
varies. High deployment
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyEngagement with local authorities
Assessment of local authority local plans
Not all local authority plans Each individual development Example of source data trajectory build rates
extend out to 2030 or later, is also assigned to an ESA,
and as a result there is a the part of the network to
natural reduction in the data which it is most likely to
available for the analysis of connect.
planned developments. Though some of these sites
To compensate for this are already visible to WPD
reduction, additional dwellings through accepted demand
and commercial floorspace connection offers, many are
were modelled, with locations not.
weighted towards areas of New build deployment also
similar characteristics to those feeds into the other DFES
that have seen recent models for heat pumps,
deployment of new rooftop solar PV, and electric
developments. vehicle charger uptake,
among others.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyEngagement with local authorities
Survey of local policies
Local authorities in the WPD Local policies are expected to
area were surveyed for local change significantly year on
plans and policies which may year. Through an annual iteration
affect the uptake of new low of the DFES this process will be
carbon technologies included in expanded to make the surveys
the DFES analysis. more comprehensive over time.
This included waste treatment The local factors and policies will
policies, electric vehicle charging therefore be updated and
infrastructure or clean air zones, verified annually with relevant
or specific policies supporting local authorities.
renewable energy deployment.
The surveys provided valuable
insight into multiple factors which
fed into the uptake modelling.
Clean air zones are assumed to contribute to an increased use of electric vehicles in the local area
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyCreating the DFES projections
Overview and process
Baseline Medium term (2025-2035)
The baseline process Key growth factors and Near term Medium term Long term
establishes the deployment of stakeholder perspectives are
each technology to date and used to create four scenario
identifies historic growth projections, with assumptions
trends and local factors. linked to FES 2020.
Near term (2020-2025) Long term (2035-2050)
Sites which may connect in Key uncertainties in
the near term are individually technology improvements and
assessed for planning costs are incorporated in an
applications, network envelope of scenario
connection offers, and projections. Data is reported
developer progress. in 5-year stages from 2035.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyCreating the DFES projections
Data sources for deployment to date
The primary source of data for The baseline registrations for
the baseline of connected electric vehicles are based on
generation and storage sites is Department for Transport data at
WPD connection agreement local authority level. This
data. For the WPD DFES 2020 information is then distributed to
study, the cut-off data for this ESAs based upon demographic
data is the beginning of April factors that reflect the
2020. characteristics of early adopters.
Additional data records are The baseline of heat pump and
sourced from public subsidy direct electric heating
records and other sources such installations is based on analysis
as the Feed in Tariff, the of Energy Performance
Capacity Market, planning Certificate data and Renewable
records and the Renewable Heat Heat Incentive reports.
Incentive.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyCreating the DFES projections
The pipeline analysis process
“
Sites with an accepted network Factors which are specific to
connection offer are individually different technologies were also Over 350 individual
assessed to establish when and if included in the pipeline research.
they will connect. Records of
planning applications, network
For example Capacity Market
activity is a key factor in the
pipeline sites were
connection offers, and online
information is used to assess
pipeline treatment of thermal
generation and storage pipeline
assessed, across a
progress. sites.
range of generation
Where possible, direct discussions The planning applications of the
are had with the developers of the individual pipeline sites are also and storage
”
pipeline sites to identify the stage assessed. The weighting given to
of development and key factors
affecting the connection year.
a successful or undecided
planning application varies by
technologies.
technology, as planning is a larger
barrier for some generation
technology types than others.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyCreating the DFES projections
Projections driven Wind Solar Hydro AD Fossil Diesel Heat Electric Energy Marine Biomass
by: power biogas gas pumps vehicles storage energy
Technology-specific Analysis of pipeline
projections are sites ● ● ● ● ● ● ○ ○ ● ● ●
created at ESA level to
ESA-level resource
create the DFES
availability ● ● ● ● ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ● ●
projections.
The business-case for
development ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
ESA-level social
factors ○ ● ○ ● ○ ○ ● ● ● ○ ○
Key:
FES 2020 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
assumptions
● In line In line In line In line In line In line Led by Led by Led by In line In line
Core factor Local authority
factors ● ● ● ● ● ○ ● ● ● ● ●
●
National policies and
Secondary factor
regulations ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
○ Local stakeholder
Unused input ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyCreating the DFES projections
Proportion of homes
not connected to the
Demographic and social factors gas network
Source:
Projections for household- These demographic and UK Gov LSOA estimates of
households not connected to the gas
scale technologies such social factors are assumed network
as heat pumps, rooftop to have a greater impact in
solar PV and battery the near term, during
electric cars, are most which low carbon DFES uses local factors to
model the uptake of new
affected by demographic technologies move from technologies. People in off-gas
and social factors. being niche to more properties are currently more
likely to install low carbon heat
widespread adoption. In technologies such as heat
For example heat pump the medium and long term pumps.
deployment is impacted by therefore, uptake is much
off-gas homes, building more widely distributed.
types, and energy
efficiency ratings. These
factors interact with other
factors such as affluence
or national policies or
financial incentives.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyCreating the DFES projections
Geographic resource assessments Agricultural land
grade
Projections for generation Distance from housing,
technologies such as proximity to the
Resource factors are key to
onshore wind and solar distribution network and the uptake and location of
farms are weighted agricultural land grade are several renewable
technologies.
towards more also included in the
geographical and spatial analysis. Solar farms are typically
resource factors. found on lower grade
These spatial resource agricultural land, however
other spatial factors such as
Renewable generation is assessments are verified hill slope, housing and
particularly reliant on against existing projects, network availability are all
critical too.
areas of good resource, pipeline sites and in
for instance high wind conversation with
speed or solar irradiance. developers.
Other key considerations
are natural constraints
including ground slope
angle, National Parks and
other protected areas.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyDFES reconciliation with FES
Reporting consistency across DFES and FES
The WPD DFES 2020 uses the same The set of underlying assumptions in FES
scenario definitions as the National Grid 2020 are incorporated wherever possible
ESO FES 2020. This means there is a in WPD DFES. Further technology-specific
common and consistent framework and assumptions are made in DFES, for
set of assumptions that allow for example around the deployment of
comparison between the studies. The projects in the pipeline.
scenarios are updated annually by the
FES team. Like the range of FES documents, the
suite of WPD DFES publications is
The technology types used in DFES and designed to suit a variety of stakeholder
FES data have been standardised for needs. A summary of results and the
better consistency. In some areas, Regen underlying assumptions by each
and WPD have included greater detail. For technology is published for each licence
example, the standard ‘I&C’ demand area, alongside the data available through
technology type is divided into 10 sub- the WPD DFES map hub. A summary of
DFES results are available online at the WPD map hub
technologies for WPD DFES, as these the stakeholder consultation event, these
developments can have wide ranging methodology slides and a DFES ‘in 5
impacts on the network. minutes’ report are also published.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyDFES reconciliation with FES
Data reconciliation across DFES and FES
The WPD DFES results are produced at ESA Any technology specific assumptions and
level and as part of the analysis is aggregated reasons for variance between the local DFES
up to be compared with FES data published at and FES results are published in the WPD
both national and GSP level. DFES summary reports for each licence area.
The WPD DFES uses FES as a framework and Typical regional and local variations include:
benchmark but in addition reflects the regional
and local factors for each technology and • Resource availability
scenario. Therefore some variance between • Historic factors
the DFES and FES views is expected.
• Political factors
This variation is typically greatest in the near
term as the DFES projections are based • Stakeholder input
primarily on analysis of the pipeline sites.
• Pipeline analysis
In the medium and long term there is more
convergence, although specific local resource • New technology adoption factors DFES results are available online at the WPD map hub
availability or factors raised by stakeholders
continue to affect the DFES results out to 2050.
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyNext steps
The WPD DFES 2020 suite of output If you have any questions in relation to
documents is now available online: WPD’s Network Strategy work, please
• Stakeholder feedback summary contact WPD on the details below:
reports – available here Email:
• Data available through the map hub wpdnetworkstrategy@westernpower.co.uk
• Technology results and assumptions By post:
reports Network Strategy Team
• Methodology walkthrough slides Western Power Distribution
Feeder Road
• DFES Regional Review summary Bristol
reports BS2 0TB
The DFES is an annual process conducted by WPD and Regen, the WPD DFES 2021
process will begin in February 2021.
WPD Distribution Managers are in contact with local authorities to discuss the results.
The stakeholder engagement process runs from February to July 2021, if you have
information to feed into the creation of the local factors for the DFES 2021 please get in
contact using the above details. DFES results are available online at the WPD map hub
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westernpower.co.uk WPD DFES 2020 – MethodologyIf you have any questions in relation to WPD’s
Network Strategy work, please contact WPD on the
details below:
Email: wpdnetworkstrategy@westernpower.co.uk
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