2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King

Page created by Jeff Brooks
 
CONTINUE READING
2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King
Market Monitor
South West of England and
South Wales Property Review

2021
Property intelligence
you can build on
2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King
Contents
                                 3    Key Market Trends

                                 5    Key Alder King Transactions

                                 7    Bristol

                                 11   Cardiff

                                 15   Exeter

                                 19   Gloucester

                                 23   Bath

                                 25   Bridgwater

                                 27   Plymouth
                                                                     Foreword
                                 29   Swindon
                                                                     Market Monitor examines
                                 31   Taunton                        the occupational and
                                 33   Truro
                                                                     investment markets in
                                                                     10 key centres across the
                                 35   Residential Development Land
                                                                     South West of England
                                 36   Planning                       and South Wales.

                                                                     Simon Price
                                                                     Senior Partner
                                                                     Alder King

                                                                     SUMMARY                                                             Investors, as always in turbulent times, were drawn in a          Key South West Centres
                                                                                                                                         general flight to quality, showing strong demand for industrial   Office and Industrial Take-Up and Supply (000 sq ft)
                                                                     In a year that threw up a host of questions for the property
                                                                                                                                         logistics, prime offices and other secure income assets.                         Office     Office     Industrial    Industrial
                                                                     market – about how we live, how we work, how we shop, how                                                                                 Year
                                                                                                                                         While transactions volumes were down, there is a significant                    Take-Up     Supply      Take-Up        Supply
                                                                     we socialise - it’s remarkable how resilient some sectors of
                                                                                                                                         weight of money looking for attractive returns and with              2020        1,393       2,695       6,395         4,771
                                                                     the market were in 2020.
                                                                                                                                         greater certainty later this year, investors will return.            2019        1,745       2,356      4,208          5,872
                                                                     The industrial/logistics market emerged strongest from the                                                                               2018        1,880       2,319      3,880          4,816
                                                                                                                                         The pandemic accelerated on-going change in the retail
                                                                     crisis, recording annual take-up of over 6.3 million sq ft in the
                                                                                                                                         and leisure sectors. With a relaxation in planning policy and         2017       1,719       2,490      5,054          3,578
                                                                     South West, the region’s highest figure since 2016. This was
                                                                                                                                         strong pent-up demand from consumers, the opportunity                2016        2,023       2,724       8,427         3,694
                                                                     driven by continuing demand from e-commerce, government
                                                                                                                                         now exists to evolve our high streets to incorporate more
                                                                     investment in infrastructure and last mile logistics. The
                                                                                                                                         independent retail - which on the whole survived better than      Cardiff Office and Industrial Take-Up and Supply
                                                                     lack of immediately available space means there is strong
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                                                                                                                         the large chains - as well as a wider mix of uses including       (000 sq ft)
                                                                     potential for developers to secure more industrial pre-lets
                                                                                                                                         residential, leisure, workspace and civic amenities.
                                                                     and pre-sales this year, leading to improved rentals, lease                                                                               Year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Office     Office     Industrial    Industrial
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Take-up     Supply      Take-up        supply
                                                                     durations and capital values.                                       While the overall situation remains unsettled, we start
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2020         305        692         595           1,150
                                                                                                                                         2021 with a Brexit trade deal in place, a Covid vaccination
                                                                     With the widespread move to remote working during the
                                                                                                                                         programme underway and a pipeline of market opportunities            2019         357         721         477          845
                                                                     pandemic, many office occupiers are reviewing their future
                                                                                                                                         for developers, landlords, investors and occupiers, allowing us      2018         499         710         515           472
                                                                     occupational requirements and commonly expecting to
                                                                                                                                         to feel optimistic of a sustained bounce-back in most sectors         2017        704        707         880            515
                                                                     need less (by circa 10-20%) space but of a better quality/
                                                                                                                                         of the market beginning the second quarter of 2021.
                                                                     specification.                                                                                                                           2016        686         788         499           839

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2
2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King
Key Market
                                 Trends

                                 OFFICES SUMMARY                                                          INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS SUMMARY                                               RETAIL & LEISURE SUMMARY                                                  INVESTMENT SUMMARY
                                 Simon Price      T 0117 317 1084 E sprice@alderking.com                  Andrew Ridler       T 0117 317 1071 E aridler@alderking.com                  Rebecca Harries T 0117 317 1086 E rharries@alderking.com                  Oli Stretton      T 0117 317 1121 E ostretton@alderking.com

                                 Whilst the office sector was clearly hit hard by the pandemic in 2020,   The industrial/logistics market showed its resilience to 2020’s              The Covid-19 pandemic had a major impact on the retail and leisure        Brexit and other macro concerns evident at the start of 2020 were
                                 initial claims of a permanent mass move to working from home/            challenging market conditions and was the strongest performing sector        sector throughout 2020, with two national lockdowns and the               overshadowed by the Covid-19 pandemic resulting in a significantly
                                 remotely are now a thing of the past with most occupiers looking         across the region, contributing to a record year for national UK take-up.    closure of all non-essential shops putting a real strain on businesses.   lower volume of investment transactions. Although the year got off
                                 towards office re-occupation during H1 of 2021, once the virus is        Regionally this is best demonstrated by a 55% increase in take-up in         As a result there was a steady rise in the number of national brands      to a promising start in Q1, activity dropped dramatically in Q2 and Q3
                                 hopefully under control.                                                 Greater Bristol from that in 2019 albeit in a number of centres a lack of    announcing administrations, CVA’s and permanent store closures.           before investors returned strongly in Q4.
                                                                                                          immediately available space constrained take-up.
                                 Fundamentally, whilst many occupiers may seek to occupy slightly                                                                                      There are however a significant number of retailers who are               There was strong demand in the industrial sector, fuelled by
                                 less space, the importance of the office as a location for community,    Demand was driven by e-commerce businesses, government investment            committed to acquiring more space to continue physical retailing.         e-commerce and last mile logistics, as well as any assets offering
                                 collaboration, interaction and training is now very widely accepted.     in infrastructure and safeguarding against Brexit through repatriation of    Food and convenience stores, pet shops and home improvement               long-term secure income. As in any challenging market, there was a
                                 Many of the occupiers we are talking to are identifying Q1 2021 as       manufacturing and stockpiling of goods. The logistics sector, particularly   stores remain the most active. Out of town retail parks and drive-        general flight to quality.
                                 the time to establish future requirements and to start to implement      internet fulfilment, and manufacturers/added value engineering               thrus also remain resilient which is largely down to the benefit of
                                 occupational strategy.                                                   occupiers also drove demand.                                                 car parking and the space for people to social distance.                  Investors were cautious towards the office sector as they
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 contemplated to what extent the short-term behavioural impacts of
                                 Alongside this, we are already seeing an increased focus on building     The region’s most significant transactions of 2020 included Amazon’s         Online spending continues to grow month on month, with fitness            the pandemic will play out in the longer term. Evidence suggests that
                                 quality – a shift towards slightly less space but space of a better      2.3 million sq ft robotic logistics centre at Symmetry Park in Swindon       equipment and DIY standing out as people spend more time in               investor appetite remains for the very highest quality buildings and a
                                 quality/specification. Increased awareness of workplace health and       and Bart Spices’ and Wincanton/EDF’s acquisitions in Avonmouth               their homes.                                                              balanced occupier position.
                                 wellbeing is also resulting in a much greater focus on design, amenity   and Portbury. Gloucestershire saw higher than average take-up for
                                 and enhanced M&E systems which is evident in the latest new office       manufacturing space with some significant deals while in Exeter Stovax       Occupiers across the board are seeking increased lease flexibility        Events accelerated ongoing structural change in the retail and leisure
                                 schemes now being promoted and in some locations constructed by          committed to a new 190,000 sq ft manufacturing facility at SkyPark.          so they can assess their trading figures without having to make           markets which were disproportionately affected by the pandemic and
                                 developers.                                                                                                                                           a long term commitment. The turnover-based approach is also               therefore least favoured by mainstream purchasers.
                                                                                                          The majority of centres are supporting speculative development, with         becoming ever more popular, allowing tenants to manage overheads.
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                 The very limited level of supply in some of the region’s key centres     St. Modwen, Chancerygate, Mountpark, Panattoni, Summerfield, Tristan,                                                                                  Severe short-term impacts on the purpose-built student
                                 including Bristol and Bath resulted in better than expected levels of    Canmoor, KMW and Trebor all active across the region.                        With more redundant retail space across the regions, more landlords       accommodation and buy-to-rent sectors will quickly be reversed and
                                 market activity during the latter part of 2020. The ongoing loss of                                                                                   are having to consider repurposing options and alternative uses.          we will see continued demand in these and other alternative sectors.
                                 office space for residential conversion and the limited amount of new    The mid box market performed well with a surge of activity particularly      The introduction of the new Use Class Order has given landlords
                                 build space coming into the market should outweigh the release of        in Bristol, Gloucester and Exeter. There is strong potential for pre-lets    more flexibility to consider different potential occupiers.               Markets were cushioned and negative impacts deferred by strong
                                 occupier ‘grey’ space in most markets.                                   and pre-sales together with design builds with the lack of supply leading                                                                              liquidity, low interest rates and unprecedented government financial
                                                                                                          to improved rentals, lease durations and capital values.                     Local independent operators continue to take advantage of                 and policy intervention.
                                 Going into 2021 we believe there is a strong level of pent-up demand                                                                                  previously unattainable property, and the demand for small,
                                 in key locations which will result in a quick rebound from Q2 onwards.   For some affordability will be an issue as the rental gap between new        well-placed units remains strong. The independent sector is               2021 will present a mixed picture but greater certainty will bring greater
                                                                                                          and good quality second hand space has reduced significantly. We             becoming increasingly attractive to landlords in comparison to            opportunity, with a weight of money looking for attractive returns and
                                                                                                          expect further upward pressure on rents, particularly for those facing       national brands given they have the ability to adapt quickly to           opportunist purchasers looking to exploit market disruptions, high
                                                                                                          their first rent reviews on space acquired since 2015.                       ever-changing government guidelines and consumer demand.                  liquidity and supportive planning and other policy initiatives.

      3                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4
2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King
Key
                                 Alder King
                                 Transactions                               1        1

                                 ACQUISITIONS                                       DISPOSALS

                                 1. 330 Bristol Business Park                       1. Unit 3 St. Modwen Park Gloucester
                                    for private investor                               for St. Modwen
                                    Price £1m, 8.35% NIY                               Size 73,597 sq ft
                                    Size 5,191 sq ft
                                                                                    2. 2nd Floor, 1 Brunswick Square, Bristol
                                 2. 11-13 Tyndalls Park Road, Bristol                  for Columbia Threadneedle
                                    for University of Bristol                          Size 14,198 sq ft
                                    Size 10,376 sq ft
                                                                                    3. DVSA, Quedgeley, Gloucester
                                 3. 26 North Road, Yate                                for Brabon Properties
                                    for South Gloucestershire Council       2   3      Price £4.625m, 5% NIY                    2   3
                                    Price £4.62m, 6.44% NIY                            Size 1.53 acres
                                    Size 47,685 sq ft
                                                                                    4. The Old Library, Cardiff
                                 4. Former Motus Site, Days Road, Bristol              for Cardiff Council
                                    for Travis Perkins                                 Size 1,559 sq ft
                                    Size 30,886 sq ft on 2.7 acres
                                                                                    5. Units A1-A4 Matford Green Trade Park,
                                 5. Short-Term Operating Reserve                       Exeter for Prego Investments
                                    Gas Facility, Gloucester                           Size 31,400 sq ft
                                    for Harworth Group
                                    Price £1.2m, 8.25% NIY                          6. Unit 18 Access 18, Avonmouth
                                    Size 1.28 acres                         4   5      for St. Modwen                           4   5
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                        Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                                                                       Size 45,000 sq ft
                                 6. Anson Business Park, Gloucestershire
                                    for Clarkson Evans                              7. 48 Lynch Lane, Weymouth for PwC
                                    Price £1.63m                                       Receivers
                                    Size 5.57 acres                                    Size 46,248 sq ft

                                 7. Block D Chocolate Quarter, Keynsham
                                    for St Monica Trust
                                    Size 0.5 acre

                                                                            6   7                                               6   7

     5                                                                                                                                       6
2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King
Former Motus Site, St Philips, Bristol. Courtesy of Motus.                                       Unit 2 Interplex, Bradley Stoke, Bristol. Courtesy of Mileway.

                                                                                                               10 Wapping Road, Bristol. Courtesy of Bellborough.

                                 Bristol                                                                                                                                                                                            Unit 18 Access 18, Avonmouth. Courtesy of St. Modwen.

                                 OFFICES                                                                                                                                                                    Take-Up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS                                                                                                                                                 *Take-Up
                                 Simon Price       T 0117 317 1084 E sprice@alderking.com                                                                                                                   000s sq ft              Andrew Ridler          T 0117 317 1071 E aridler@alderking.com                                                                                                         000s sq ft
                                                                                                                                                            1,250                                                                                                                                                                                                    5,000

                                 Despite the challenges resulting from               Encouragingly for 2021 there are several                                                                                                       Take-up in 2020 amounted to 2.285 million                box enquiries which resulted in the take-up

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  4,500
                                                                                                                                                            1,000                                                                                                                                                                                                   4,000

                                                                                                                                                                     1,091

                                                                                                                                                                                   1,039
                                 Covid-19, the Bristol office market delivered       significant active requirements in the                                                                                                         sq ft*, an increase of 55% on the 2019 figure            of any overhang in supply. This is perhaps

                                                                                                                                                                                                             939
                                                                                                                                                                                               931
                                 a robust performance in 2020, with take-            30 – 80,000 sq ft size range and, with                    18%           750
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    of 1.474 million sq ft and approaching the 10            best demonstrated by Peugeot’s 45,000 sq ft               55%           3,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         764

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2,902
                                 up boosted by a very strong Q1 and a very           limited good quality Grade A existing stock                             500                                                                    year average of 2.5 million sq ft.                       leasehold acquisition at Access 18, lettings of                         2,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2,285
                                 encouraging Q4 which saw the completion             available, some are having to consider pre-let                                                                                                                                                          32,000 and 42,000 sq ft to SIG and Network

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1,606
                                                                                                                                                             250                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1,474
                                 of several significant deals negotiated over        opportunities. The professional and financial                                                                                                  Take-up for H1 2020 stood at 621,000 sq                  Rail at More + on Severnside and 62,992 sq ft
                                 the summer.                                         services, TMT and the public sector remain                                0                                                                    ft, with the largest building acquired being             to Argos at Horizon 38, Filton.                                            0
                                                                                     the most active sectors in terms of take-up                                     16             17          18            19        20          70,000 sq ft in Weston-super-Mare. H2                                                                                                          16     17       18       18      20

                                 The lack of supply in both the city centre          and current active enquiries.                                                                                                                  take-up amounted to 1.663 million sq ft                  In addition over 220 acres of land was let or
                                 and out of town markets meant that, at the                                                                                                                                    Supply               with three deals accounting for 647,000 sq               sold for development and occupation with                                                                         Supply
                                 end of the year, headline rents had held their      With the completion at the end of 2020 of                                                                              000s sq ft              ft. These were Bart Spices’ acquisition of               notable transactions including the letting                                                                    000s sq ft
                                 pre-Covid levels. In fact Bristol city centre set   RLAM’s Distillery scheme on Avon Street,                               1,250                                                                   Barwood Capital’s 139,000 sq ft Junction                 of the Former Honda Distribution Centre at                             4,000
                                 a new record rent of £38 psf at One Portwall        One Portwall Square is the only brand new                                                                                                      1 and Wincanton/EDF acquiring Logicor’s                  Avonmouth (56,000 sq ft on 63 acres) to
                                                                                                                                                            1,000
                                 Square. However incentive levels have               Grade A space due to complete during                                                                                                           248,000 sq ft WA 248, both on Severnside,                BCA.                                                                    3,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3,000
                                 increased in both the city centre and out of        2021. However, new build schemes including                                                                                                     with EDF also acquiring 260,000 sq ft at
                                                                                                                                                                     850

                                                                                                                                                5%           750
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      50%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2,750
                                 town markets.                                       Assembly Phase 2, Welcome Building, EQ                                                                                                         Royal Portbury.                                          In Avonmouth, Trebor’s 150,000 sq ft                                    2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         735
                                                                                                                                                                                               725
                                                                                                                                                                                   700

                                                                                                                                                                                                             700

                                                                                                                                                             500
                                                                                     and Halo are all due to complete during                                                                                                                                                                 Portside scheme at Kings Weston Lane has

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1,500

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1,500
                                 Unlike some other regional cities across            2022/2023.                                                                                                                                     The volume of transactions increased from                now completed and Mountpark is on site                                  1,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1,250
                                                                                                                                                             250
                                 the country, Bristol has so far only seen                                                                                                                                                          154 in 2019 to 159 in 2020 with approximately            with a speculative 360,000 sq ft building.
                                                                                                                                                               0                                                                                                                                                                                                        0
                                 a very limited release of occupier ‘grey’           Q4 2020 also saw the completion of a                                            16             17          18            19        20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    66% of disposals involving property below                St. Modwen has planning permission for                                                16     17       18       19      20
                                 space. Whilst many occupiers are reviewing          number of high quality refurbishments                                                                                                          10,000 sq ft.                                            its 220,000 sq ft five unit Phase 6/7 with
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                 head count and their exact future size              including Gilbert House/41 Corn Street and                                                                                                                                                              planning submitted for a further 885,000 sq
                                 requirements, there is a developing trend           10 Wapping Road, all of which are attracting                                                             Headline rent                         In the same period the supply of industrial              ft. Tristan Capital is planning the next phase                                                       Headline rent
                                 towards slightly less space (commonly by            good occupier interest.                                                                                                            £psf        space decreased to approximately 1.5 million             of More + which will provide 385,000 sq ft.                                                                            £psf
                                                                                                                                                              40                                                                                                                                                                                                        10
                                 10 – 20%) but better quality space so that                                                                                                                                                         sq ft, the lowest level for three years. For                                                                                                                                        **

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            9.75
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        38

                                 when staff and clients do return to offices         We do anticipate greater focus during 2021                                                                                                     context, the city’s built industrial stock is            The continuing supply issue for Greater

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   9.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                            37.5

                                                                                                                                               1.3%                                                                                                                                                                                                                     8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          8.75
                                                                                                                                                                                              34.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  8.5
                                                                                                                                                              30
                                 the overall impression is improved. We are          on Bristol as a potential relocation/expansion                                                                                                 between 65 and 70 million sq ft.                         Bristol is that the bulk of development land
                                                                                                                                                                                  32.5
                                                                                                                                                                    28.5

                                 also seeing much more occupier focus on             location as more London occupiers in                   city centre                                                                                                                                      is located on Severnside, Avonmouth with                 2.5%              6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             23.5

                                                                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   23
                                                                                                                                                                                                     22.5

                                 environmental credentials, building amenity,        particular seek to grow their hub and spoke                                                                                                    Despite the Covid-19 situation, a key feature of         an extremely limited supply in central, north
                                                                                                                                                                                         22
                                                                                                                                                                           21.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4
                                 M&E specification and individual building           model.                                                                                                                                         2020 was the increase in activity relating to            and east Bristol, Yate and Thornbury where
                                                                                                                                                               10
                                 community and culture.                                                                                         2%                                                                                  e-commerce, largely driven by the pandemic               strong unsatisfied demand exists.                                          2

                                                                                                                                                               0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    forcing businesses and private individuals to                                                                                       0
                                                                                                                                                                     16     17                 18      19               20          buy online, and in addition the return of mid            *SW IAS 2020                                                                          16     17     18         19      20
                                                                                                                                           out of town
                                                                                                                                                                    city centre               out of town                                                                                                                                                                    **
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  for sub-10,000 sq ft

      7                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           8
2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King
“The highest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 volume of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 transactions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 was in the office
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 sector despite the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 challenges presented
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 by the pandemic.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2620 Aztec West.

                                                                                             Planet Ice, Cribbs Causeway. Courtesy of Baylis Estates/Planet Ice.

                                 Bristol                                                                                                                                                                                     Halo, Finzels Reach, Bristol.                                            Orpen Park, Bristol.

                                 RETAIL & LEISURE                                                                                                                   Zone A headline rent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             INVESTMENT                                                                                             Value of investment transactions
                                 Rebecca Harries       T 0117 317 1086 E rharries@alderking.com                                                                                                                    £psf      John Benson T 0117 317 1100             E jbenson@alderking.com                                                                                   £ms
                                                                                                                                                            300                                                                                                                                                                          1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oli Stretton T 0117 317 1121            E ostretton@alderking.com

                                                                                                                                                                     300

                                                                                                                                                                                 300

                                                                                                                                                                                            300
                                                                                                                                                            250
                                 2020 was a challenging year for retailers       There have been a number of new openings                                                                                                                                                                                                                 800

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         845.4
                                 across the country. Encouragingly though,       across the Bristol independent food and                                    200                                                              As expected, there was a reduced volume of transactions in 2020. There was strong demand

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       657.9
                                                                                                                                             0%                            200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 19%      600

                                                                                                                                                                                        200

                                                                                                                                                                                                200

                                                                                                                                                                                                             200

                                                                                                                                                                                                             200
                                 Bristol saw sales growth above the national     beverage sector. On Whiteladies Road, Boston                                                                                                for industrial/logistics, albeit a very limited number of opportunities, and also for assets

                                                                                                                                                                                                           180

                                                                                                                                                                                                           180
                                                                                                                                                            150
                                                                                                                                                                   170

                                                                                                                                                                         170

                                                                                                                                                                                      170

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               533
                                 average and footfall levels remained            Tea Party has relocated to larger premises

                                                                                                                                                                                                      150

                                                                                                                                                                                                        150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             offering long secure income. The highest volume of transactions was in the office sector                     400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 475.3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 420
                                                                                                                                                            100
                                 consistent prior to the November lockdown.      and Italian restaurant Number Fifty has taken                                                                                               despite the challenges presented by the pandemic.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          200
                                                                                 the former Mary Janes café. Eat a Pitta has                                 50

                                 Vacancy rates in some areas of the city are     opened its fifth Bristol site in Clifton Village.                            0                                                              Halo, Finzels Reach. Tesco Pension              year was this single-let distribution unit                     0
                                 increasing. Queens Roads in Clifton and         The Red Church has opened in St George                                              16          17         18          19         20                                                                                                                            16      17      18    19      20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Investment acquired Halo in Bristol for         sold by Jetstorm Properties to Columbia
                                 Broadmead in particular have seen closures      and Bristol Loaf, incorporating its organic                                                                                                 £70m. This 116,000 sq ft building is being      Threadneedle in September for £24.75m,
                                 of several outlets where national brands have   sourdough bakery, Hugo’s Greengrocer, Two-                                  Out of town headline rent                                       built speculatively by Cubex/Fiera with         6.29% NIY. The building is 182,500 sq ft and                                        Prime yields
                                 made the decision to close some sites within    Belly Cheesemonger and The Bristol Vine                                                                                           £psf      the majority let to Osborne Clarke and          is let to Next Plc for a further six years.                                                         %
                                 their portfolios.                               have opened in Bedminster.                                                  30                                                              circa 42,000 sq ft remaining to let. Given                                                                     8
                                                                                                                                                                    30

                                                                                                                                                                                 30

                                                                                                                                                                                            30

                                                                                                                                                             25                                                              the current economic backdrop, this             2620 Aztec West. This freehold single-let
                                 Cabot Circus saw the closure of DW Sports       The larger stores in out of town locations                                                                                                  significant transaction which completed in      office building was sold by Aviva Investors to                 7
                                                                                                                                                                                                            25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       25

                                                                                                                                                             20
                                 recently due to the company entering into       are performing better, due to the benefit of                                                                                                June demonstrates a big vote of investor        M7 Real Estate in July for £21.2m, 6.8%. The
                                 administration. The Samsung Experience          ample car parking and the ability for people
                                                                                                                                             0%              15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             confidence in the Bristol office market.        building totals 76,240 sq ft and is let to EE                  6

                                 Store and German restaurant/bar                 to social distance.                                                         10                                                                                                              Ltd for a further seven years.
                                 Klosterhaus by D&D London are now both                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     5
                                                                                                                                                              5                                                              Orpen Park, Bradley Stoke. Orpen Park in
                                 open and trading and Lego has recently          The Mall at Cribbs Causeway has also                                                                                                        Almondsbury, a circa 80,000 sq ft multi-        100 Bristol Business Park. This newly
                                                                                                                                                              0                                                                                                                                                                             4
                                 announced it will be opening a new flagship     experienced some issues this year with the                                         16           17         18              19         20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             let industrial estate was sold by Longmead      developed freehold single-let office building                       16      17      18    19      20
                                 Cabot Circus store soon. Oh La La Ice Cream     collapse of Intu and some store closures.                                                                                                   Capital to M7/Blackstone for £9.6m, 5.6%        was sold by Abstract Securities to Aviva
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                 & Desserts also opened in the centre in         However John Lewis and Marks & Spencer                                                                                                      NIY.                                            Investors in August for £55.2m, 4.6% NIY.                           industrial            4.25%
                                 August 2020.                                    continue to trade well and medical operator                                        Leisure headline rent                                                                                    The building totals 132,000 sq ft and was pre-                      office                4.75%

                                                                                 Therapie Clinic UK hopes to take over the                                                                                         £psf                                                                                                                          retail high street     6.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Clifton Down Shopping Centre, Clifton.          let to Babcock for 15 years.                                        retail out of town    6.75%
                                                                                                                                                            40
                                 Demand remains steady for well-placed           former Bose store, subject to planning. Baylis                                                                                              This freehold multi-let shopping centre was
                                 small to medium sized units that offer lower    Estates’ nearby leisure complex is making                                                                                                   acquired by Sovereign Housing Association       First Avenue, Portbury. This freehold single-
                                                                                                                                                                                      35

                                                                                                                                                                                                35

                                                                                                                                                                                                             35

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        35

                                                                                                                                                             30
                                                                                                                                                                         32.5

                                 occupational costs. There is an increased       good progress, with Planet Ice rink due to                                                                                                  from Blackrock UK Property Fund in October      let industrial unit was sold by Euro Property
                                 demand from start-ups and independent           open in Spring 2021.                                        0%              20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             for £27.2m. The site offers medium-long         Investment to South Gloucestershire Council
                                 and regional operators who are becoming                                                                                                                                                     term potential for redevelopment for a major    in January for £6.2m, 5.73% NIY. The
                                 increasingly more attractive to landlords.                                                                                                                                                  mixed use development.                          building is 53,733 sq ft and is let to A-Gas Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                   15

                                                                                                                                                                                15

                                                                                                                                                                                           15

                                                                                                                                                                                                      15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  15

                                                                                                                                                             10
                                                                                                                                                                     12

                                                                                                                                                                                 12

                                                                                                                                                                                            12

                                                                                                                                                                                                        12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             until 2033 subject to a tenant break option
                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Next Distribution, Western Approach.            in 2028.
                                                                                                                                                                     16          17         18          19         20        The largest industrial transaction of the

     9                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10
2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King
The Old Library, Cardiff.

                                 Cardiff                                                                                                                                                                                 3 Ipswich Road, Cardiff. Courtesy of Springfall Properties.

                                 OFFICES                                                                                                                                                         Take-Up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS                                                                                                                         Take-Up
                                 Owen Young        T 029 2038 1996 E oyoung@alderking.com                                                                                                        000s sq ft              Owen Young          T 029 2038 1996 E oyoung@alderking.com                                                                                     000s sq ft
                                                                                                                                                       800                                                                                                                                                                                 1,000

                                 Unsurprisingly, there was a sharp fall in         Other notable deals last year included                                                                                                As with the rest of the UK, Cardiff’s industrial         To its detriment, Cardiff’s employment land               800

                                                                                                                                                                         704

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          880
                                                                                                                                                       600

                                                                                                                                                               685.6
                                 demand for office space as a result of the        Starling Bank taking 14,075 sq ft at Brunel                                                                                           and logistics market outperformed other                  allocation is relatively limited with new
                                 pandemic and occupiers’ reassessment              House and Target Group taking 12,300 sq ft          14.5%                                                                             sectors, even during lockdown, and especially            opportunities quickly being snapped up            24%     600

                                                                                                                                                                                      499
                                                                                                                                                       400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                595
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 515
                                 of future working practices and space             at Eastern Business Park.                                                                                                             for units below 5,000 sq ft where demand                 for higher value residential or mixed uses.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   499
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         477
                                                                                                                                                                                                  357
                                 requirements.                                                                                                                                                                           is very strong, accounting for 59% of deals              Notable exceptions are Proco Developments

                                                                                                                                                                                                              305
                                                                                                                                                       200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            200
                                                                                   The refurbishment of Hodge House on St                                                                                                last year.                                               who recently constructed and sold all eight
                                 Take-up for 2020 was 45% down on the              Mary Street is now complete with further                               0                                                                                                                       units ranging from 1,440 to 3,140 sq ft on                  0
                                 five year average of just over 550,000            refurbishments ongoing at Fusion Point on                                   16         17          18          19         20          Freehold properties are becoming scarce,                 Lamby Way. Fairfield Industrial Estate in                        16     17     18      19     20

                                 sq ft. A suspected increase in demand for         Dumballs Road, Alexandra House on Tyndall                                                                                             accounting for few transactions in 2020. We              Taffs Wells released six new build units last
                                 out of town accommodation, as a result of         Street and Dumfries House on Dumfries                                                                              Supply             predict an increase in freehold opportunities            year and successfully let the majority before                                           Supply
                                 companies seeking accommodation closer            Place, each with the intent of increasing the                                                                 000s sq ft              during 2021 once the lending institutions are            practical completion. The units ranged from                                           000s sq ft
                                 to their homes, did not transpire and city        city’s larger floorplate Grade A offer.                             800                                                               free from repossession restrictions.                     980 to 1,500 sq ft, again evidencing strong              1,200
                                 centre accommodation dominated activity,                                                                                                                                                                                                         demand for smaller units where occupiers
                                                                                                                                                               788

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1,150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                  721
                                                                                                                                                                                      710
                                                                                                                                                                         707

                                 especially in and around Central train station.   Supply decreased slightly and is now just                                                                                             Interestingly, units between 5,000 and                   were not afraid to pay as much as £10 psf.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              692

                                                                                                                                                       600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            800
                                 For example, the BBC has now completed its        below 700,000 sq ft. Around 38% of this is                                                                                            10,000 sq ft have tended to attract less

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         845
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   839
                                 relocation to Central Square and HMRC is          Grade A accommodation of which 25% is
                                                                                                                                         4%            400                                                               interest, which could be as a result of smaller          Headline rents have once again increased
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    36%     600

                                 finalising relocations into the 270,000 sq ft     located in the Bay area.                                                                                                              businesses finding it difficult to make the              to over £6 psf due to the demand for good                 400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          515

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 472
                                                                                                                                                       200
                                 recently completed William Morgan House,                                                                                                                                                jump to this level, creating more availability in        quality and well positioned industrial stock.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            200
                                 also on Central Square.                           Headline rents for the city remain at £25                                                                                             this size range. Overall supply has increased            This is evident as a result of lettings such
                                                                                                                                                          0                                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                                                                   psf achieved from the lettings at the 2                                     16         17          18          19         20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         by 36% due to a surge of available properties            as 5,831 sq ft let to Cardiff & Vale University                  16     17     18      19     20
                                 The big letting for 2020, and one which           Central Square office building to law firm                                                                                            between 20,000 sq ft and 60,000 sq ft.                   Health Board for £6.17 psf at Parc Ty Glas,
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                 accounts for 45% of the year’s take-up, was       Hugh James and Cardiff University School                                                                                                                                                       Llanishen.
                                 Legal & General consolidating its two Cardiff     of Journalism, Media and Culture. We expect                                                       Headline rent                       Notable deals last year included the BBC                                                                                               Headline rent
                                 offices at Brunel House and Knox Court and        this level to remain throughout 2021 but with                                                                             £psf        solidifying its presence in Cardiff, committing                                                                                                        £psf
                                                                                                                                                         25                                                                                                                                                                                   6
                                 taking 121,256 sq ft at the £140m Interchange     increasing upward pressure on incentives.                                                                                             to 30,553 sq ft at Lakeside on St Mellons
                                                                                                                                                               25

                                                                                                                                                                         25

                                                                                                                                                                                     25

                                                                                                                                                                                                 25

                                                                                                                                                                                                             25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 5.80

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5.80
                                 building on Central Square. This will also                                                                                                                                              Business Park. The largest deal of the year                                                                          5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5.5
                                                                                                                                                         20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5.25
                                 provide a new bus station, ground floor retail/                                                                                                                                         was the letting by Welsh Government to                                                                               4
                                 leisure and 300+ build to rent apartments                                                               0%              15                                                              Great Point Studios at Wentloog consisting                                                                 3.5%      3
                                                                                                                                                                              14.5

                                                                                                                                                                                          14.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                      14.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  14.5
                                                                                                                                                                    14

                                 and is due for completion in November 2022.                                                                             10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         of 177,719 sq ft in Q3.
                                 JR Smart continues speculative construction                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2

                                 of the first phase of John Street at Callaghan                                                                           5                                                                                                                                                                                    1
                                 Square releasing 109,000 sq ft expected at                                                                               0                                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                 the end of 2021/early 2022.                                                                                                    16     17             18     19              20                                                                                                                                    16     17     18      19     20
                                                                                                                                                               city centre           out of town

     11                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  12
2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King
The Hayes, Central Cardiff.

                                 Cardiff                                                                                                                                                                                     Global Reach, Celtic Gateway Business Park.

                                 RETAIL & LEISURE                                                                                                                    Zone A headline rent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             INVESTMENT                                                                                            Value of investment transactions
                                 Owen Young         T 029 2038 1996 E oyoung@alderking.com                                                                                                                         £psf      Oli Stretton T 0117 317 1121 E ostretton@alderking.com                                                                                            £ms
                                                                                                                                                             250                                                                                                                                                                         500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Owen Young T 029 2038 1996 E oyoung@alderking.com

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       474.5
                                 Uncertainty remains surrounding the                 The Hayes as well as taking 1,129 sq ft on the                         200                                                                                                                                                                          400

                                                                                                                                                                     225

                                                                                                                                                                                 225

                                                                                                                                                                                             225

                                                                                                                                                                                                           220

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       407.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       200
                                 future of retail not only as a result of the        ground floor of Capital Tower on Greyfriars                                                                                             The Cardiff market experienced reduced levels of activity but confidence remained in the
                                 pandemic but due to the forced speed in             Road.                                                     9%            150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             logistics and office sectors. Notable transactions included:                                        57%     300

                                 the progression towards online sales. At this                                                                               100                                                                                                                                                                         200
                                 point, it is almost impossible to estimate the      The big news is Marston’s taking over the                                                                                               Red Dragon Centre, Cardiff Bay.                 Global Reach, Celtic Gateway Business

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               172
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               169.1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               166.7
                                                                                                                                                              50                                                                                                                                                                         100
                                 effect on headline rents in the city, as it is to   operation and leasing the 156 Brains pub                                                                                                Early in 2020, Cardiff Council completed        Park. This multi-let office building, enjoying a
                                 predict the short term future.                      chain, thankfully keeping the Welsh brand                                 0                                                             the acquisition of the Red Dragon leisure       prominent position and excellent car parking,                 0
                                                                                     name.                                                                           16          17          18            19          20                                                                                                                      16      17      18      19      20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             scheme from BA Pension Fund to facilitate       was acquired by London & Scottish Property
                                 Whilst the closure of Debenhams and                                                                                                                                                         a major leisure-led mixed use regeneration      Investment Management on behalf of
                                 administrations of Arcadia Group, Bon               Other positives include the ever increasing                              Out of town headline rent                                      scheme. Plans are for the existing 13 acre 16   Regional Reit for £8.40m, 8.90% NIY.                                              Prime yields
                                 Marche, DW Sports, Edinburgh Woollen                demand for drive-thrus and discount food                                                                                      £psf      unit leisure scheme to be added to existing                                                                                                         %
                                 Mill, Peacocks, Go Outdoors and TM Lewin            operators remain hungry for new sites.                                  40                                                              land interests and redeveloped to provide a     Service Area, Cardiff Gateway Business                        8
                                                                                                                                                                     40

                                                                                                                                                                                 40

                                                                                                                                                                                             40

                                                                                                                                                                                                           40

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       40

                                 dominated headlines, there were still some          Even Metro Bank has opened a drive-thru                                                                                                 £500m mixed use development anchored by         Park. In a surprise off market transaction,
                                 positive stories, with Hollister seizing the        on Newport Road. Furthermore, in July,                                   30                                                             a new 15,000 person capacity indoor arena.      Newcore Capital Management purchased the                      7
                                 opportunity to move to a larger store in St         Starbucks opened a new drive-thru on                                                                                                    Cardiff Council was reported to have paid       petrol filling station service area and ancillary
                                 David’s shopping centre and new stores for          Culverhouse Retail Park. It’s ironic that
                                                                                                                                               0%             20                                                             £54.60m.                                        retail from Cardiff Gate Business Park Ltd for                6

                                 Hotel Chocolat, Levi’s, ECCO, FatFace and           the city is set to open its first drive-thru                                                                                                                                            a reported £10.0 m, 4.79% NIY.
                                 Skechers.                                           Coronavirus testing centre in Whitchurch.                                10                                                                                                                                                                           5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4 Capital Quarter. Demonstrating continued
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             confidence in the city centre office market,
                                                                                                                                                               0                                                                                                                                                                           4
                                 As CVA’s become more prevalent, we predict                                                                                          16          17          18            19          20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             JR Smart sold this prime multi-let office                                                                         16      17      18      19      20
                                 a trend towards pop-up shorter term stores                                                                                                                                                  investment to Greenridge Regional UK
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                 and turnover rents, which will make for some                                                                                                                                                Property for £33.40m, 5.47% NIY.                                                                                  industrial                5%
                                 interesting future valuations.                                                                                                     Leisure headline rent                                                                                                                                                      office                  5.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   £psf                                                                                                                        retail high street      6.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               retail out of town        7%
                                                                                                                                                             40
                                 Restaurants and leisure companies have been
                                                                                                                                                                           40

                                                                                                                                                                                       40

                                                                                                                                                                                                 40

                                                                                                                                                                                                             40

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        40

                                 hit hard but there is no doubt this sector will
                                                                                                                                                              30
                                 bounce back with several brand operators
                                 already inquisitive for the better located,                                                                   0%             20
                                 soon to be vacated stores. Evidence of this is
                                 Kiln and Ilk opening a new 1,133 sq ft site on
                                                                                                                                                                    13

                                                                                                                                                                                13

                                                                                                                                                                                            13

                                                                                                                                                                                                      13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  13

                                                                                                                                                              10
                                                                                                                                                                      11

                                                                                                                                                                                 11

                                                                                                                                                                                             11

                                                                                                                                                                                                       11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   11

                                                                                                                                         cinema
                                                                                                                                         health & fitness      0
                                                                                                                                                                      16         17          18        19          20
                                                                                                                                         A3/A4

 13                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   14
2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King
CGI of the Stovax Heating Group building. Courtesy of St. Modwen.

                                                                                                                   Kestrel GTX, Sowton Industrial Estate, Exeter.
                                                                                                                                 Courtesy of Staunton Property.

                                 Exeter                                                                                                                                                                                    Units A1-A4 Matford Green Trade Park. Courtesy of Prego Investments.          Exeter Trade Park, Marsh Barton, Exeter. Courtesy of Graftongate.

                                 OFFICES                                                                                                                                                           Take-Up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS                                                                                                                                  Take-Up
                                 Noel Stevens       T 01392 353093 E nstevens@alderking.com                                                                                                        000s sq ft              Noel Stevens        T 01392 353093           E nstevens@alderking.com                                                                                   000s sq ft
                                                                                                                                                            200                                                                                                                                                                                         800

                                                                                                                                                                    200

                                                                                                                                                                                        199

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              758
                                 The occupation of office space changed           Although there is an increase in supply, we                                150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           The industrial property market was once               At Mercury Business Park in Cullompton, we                             600

                                                                                                                                                                             167
                                 dramatically in 2020. With many staff having     have yet to see downward pressure on rents.                                                                                              again the best performing sector in the               are offering small industrial units both for

                                                                                                                                                                                                     144
                                 barely set foot in buildings since the end of    Incentives have moved out but landlords and                 21%            100                                                           region. While some transactions were delayed          sale and rent. Interest has been very strong            38%            400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 114
                                 March, the temporary impact on the market        developers are holding firm at the moment.                                                                                               and a few aborted at the start of lockdown 1,         with half the units in the first phase under

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     355
                                 has been huge. The longer term impacts will      We expect this position to remain for quality                                                                                            businesses in the industrial and warehouse            offer months ahead of completion. Units start

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            277
                                                                                                                                                              50                                                                                                                                                                                        200

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    273
                                 take several years to be fully understood due    space. In secondary locations and where                                                                                                  sector adapted and in some cases thrived in a         from 753 sq ft at £150 psf.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           170
                                 to the length of commercial leases.              premises may be in need of improvement                                       0                                                           new restricted trading environment.                                                                                            0
                                                                                  we expect negotiations to be harder and                                            16       17         18          19         20                                                               We saw strong activity at the upper end of                                   16      17    18      19     20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              high st
                                 So whilst staff stayed away in their droves,     reductions to be given.                                                                                                                  The supply of suitable premises remains               the market in H2 2020. The Stovax Heating
                                 businesses still paid rent and occupied the                                                                                                                              Supply           the primary issue in the market with little           Group agreed terms to lease a 196,000                                                               Supply
                                 space, albeit on a much lower density. Some      Despite the pandemic, transactions did take                                                                      000s sq ft              secondary stock coming to market, very                sq ft building at SkyPark. Construction is                                                        000s sq ft
                                 obviously took the decision to move out of       place, particularly in the first half of the year.                        400                                                            limited new build under construction and              programmed to begin in summer 2021.                                    250

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    251
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 404

                                 space permanently as we saw an increase          Transaction volumes were down but only                                                                                                   a development pipeline that won’t provide             Lettings at Kestrel GTX and Units A1-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        200

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           225
                                 in stock of 2,000 to 5,000 sq ft coming to       by about 30%. Some of these transactions                                  300                                                            additional supply until Q2 2021. There are            A4 Matford Green Trade Park also took

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              195
                                 market in H2 2020.                               were already committed. The largest totalling                                                                                            good levels of interest in two schemes under          place. These were the largest buildings
                                                                                                                                                                                                     272

                                                                                                                                             48%                                                                                                                                                                                         10%            150

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            167
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     165
                                                                                  almost 15,000 sq ft was to the NHS to                                     200                                                            construction and it is a lack of stock that held      on the market and showed the demand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        100
                                                                                                                                                                    197

                                 The accepted wisdom is that businesses will      support The Nightingale Hospital and the                                                                                                 back take-up last year rather than the wider          for space in the 30,000 – 50,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                             179

                                                                                                                                                                                        162

                                 reduce the amount of space they occupy. We       response effort.                                                           100                                                           economic picture.                                     bracket. Strong rents were also achieved                                50
                                 anticipate that demand will exist in 2021 for                                                                                                                                                                                                   reflecting the market but also the high
                                                                                                                                                               0                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                 this newly released space as larger occupiers    The second half of the year was slower as                                          16       17         18          19         20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Exeter Trade Park, located on the former              quality refurbishment at Kestrel GTX and the                                 16     17     18      19     20
                                 who are less quick to act downsize as well.      the expected summer return to work didn’t                                                                                                Vospers Ford site in Marsh Barton, will be            construction cost inflation impacting new
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                                                                  materialise. We therefore saw reduced                                                                                                    ready for occupation in July 2021. There is           builds like Matford Trade Park.
                                 Supply stands at its highest level since 2013.   activity across the year but it’s too early to                                                       Headline rent                       strong interest in the six trade counter units                                                                                                  Headline rent
                                 This is due to an increase in smaller suites     say if this reduction is the start of a trend or                                                                             £psf        which will provide a leap forward in headline         With such strong demand from the logistics                                                                £psf
                                                                                                                                                              20                                                                                                                                                                                         10
                                 coming to market but also the availability at    a short term reaction to the pandemic.                                                                                                   rents to north of £12 psf. The Graftongate            sector, we expect to see increased demand
                                                                                                                                                                                              20

                                                                                                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                                                                19.5

                                 Winslade Park where there is over 100,000                                                                                                                                                 development also offers two larger                    in 2021.
                                                                                                                                                                     18.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          8
                                                                                                                                                                    17.5

                                                                                                                                                                            17.5

                                                                                                                                                                                       17.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                   17.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                               17.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            8.90

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    8.90

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           8.90
                                                                                                                                                              15
                                 sq ft of space across three buildings.                                                                                                                                                    distribution units which will meet the strong

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     8
                                                                                                                                              0%              10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           demand evident in the market.                                                                                  0%              6

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4

                                                                                                                                                               5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2

                                                                                                                                                               0                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                                                     16     17          18     19               20                                                                                                                                            16     17     18      19     20
                                                                                                                                                                    city centre        out of town

 15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                16
2021 Market Monitor South West of England and - Alder King
High Street, Exeter.

                                 Exeter                                                                                                                                                                                 Broadwalk House, Southernhay West.

                                 RETAIL & LEISURE                                                                                                               Zone A headline rent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        INVESTMENT                                                                                         Value of investment transactions
                                 Noel Stevens       T 01392 353093 E nstevens@alderking.com                                                                                                                   £psf      Oli Stretton   T 0117 317 1121             E ostretton@alderking.com                                                                          £ms
                                                                                                                                                       250                                                                                                                                                                       200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Scott Rossiter T 01392 353089              E srossiter@alderking.com
                                 In the current climate it is very difficult       There is also demand from operators of drive-                       200

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               177.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  150

                                                                                                                                                                210

                                                                                                                                                                            210

                                                                                                                                                                                        210

                                                                                                                                                                                                      210

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  210
                                 to comment on the retail sector without           thru restaurants, whether it be fast food or                                                                                         Investment activity in Exeter mirrored activity nationally with a lower volume of transactions
                                 focusing too much on retail closures and          coffee. Both saw strong trading as soon as             0%            150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        generally but with a number of notable transactions either side of the mid-year period.          59%     100
                                 changes in buyer behaviour. In Exeter the         restrictions were lifted. Many benefitted from                       100

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       81.8
                                 closure of high street retailers has been         a slimmed down menu and reduced staff as                                                                                             Exeter Retail Park. Early in 2020 Patrizia       Sowton Industrial Estate. During the course

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              72.4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      29.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  50

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        22.7
                                                                                                                                                        50
                                 underway for several years as online              only the drive-thru was open. This helped                                                                                            Immobilien AG acquired from Aviva Investors      of 2020, a number of transactions occurred
                                 spending increased.                               generate income at a time when restrictions                            0                                                             Pensions this multi–let retail park for          on Sowton Industrial Estate including the                 0
                                                                                   prevented some competitors from opening.                                     16          17          18            19          20                                                                                                                    16     17      18     19      20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £23.70m, 9.27% NIY.                              disposal by Fiera Real Estate of the Giant
                                 In the early days of Amazon and its                                                                                                                                                                                                     Booker Unit to Urban Logistics Reit Plc for
                                 competitors, we saw backfilling of the retail     Where there is interest in the market,                               Out of town headline rent                                       Broadwalk House, Southernhay West.               £5.1m, 8.0% NIY.                                                              Prime yields
                                 voids by the food and beverage sector. Exeter     whether it be on the high street or out                                                                                    £psf      The Crown Estate disposal of this well                                                                                                           %
                                 had large scale expansion in Princesshay and      of town within retail parks, we are seeing                           40                                                              located multi-let office building attracted                                                                8
                                 The Guildhall with a focus on experiential        occupiers looking for more flexible leases,                                                                                          strong interest for existing office use and
                                                                                                                                                                                        38

                                                                                                                                                                                                      38

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  38
                                                                                                                                                                35

                                                                                                                                                                            35

                                 retail and café culture. These brands took        allowing them to dip a toe into the water                             30                                                             the opportunity to reposition. Castleforge                                                                 7
                                 on large national expansion programmes            without long term lease commitments.                                                                                                 Partners acquired it for circa £13.0m, 5.0%
                                 and were already suffering badly before           Turnover rents are also far more popular
                                                                                                                                          0%             20                                                             NIY.                                                                                                       6

                                 the pandemic. The lack of trade from Q2           enabling occupiers to balance property costs
                                                                                                                                                         10                                                                                                                                                                        5
                                 2020 onwards only served to hasten further        against returns, rather than creating larger                                                                                         Exeter Gateway. The Church Commissioners’
                                 closures in a declining sector. The full impact   fixed overheads.                                                                                                                     patient investment in the Exeter Gateway
                                                                                                                                                          0                                                                                                                                                                        4
                                 on the city centre will only become clear                                                                                      16          17          18            19          20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        prime logistics development resulted in two                                                                     16     17      18     19      20
                                 as we review the all-important Christmas                                                                                                                                               significant forward funding transactions
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                 trading period and head through 2021.                                                                                                                                                  following single unit lettings having been                                                                      industrial            4.75%
                                                                                                                                                               Leisure headline rent                                    agreed with Amazon Logistics and DHL.                                                                           office                5.75%

                                 This situation has served to polarise the                                                                                                                                    £psf                                                                                                                      retail high street     6.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Urban Logistics Reit Plc committed at £11.2m                                                                    retail out of town    6.75%
                                                                                                                                                        50
                                 market. There is strong demand from the                                                                                                                                                and £8.5m respectively representing a
                                 convenience sector with the likes of Co-Op                                                                             40                                                              reported 5.3% NIY.
                                                                                                                                                                      42

                                                                                                                                                                                  42

                                                                                                                                                                                            42

                                                                                                                                                                                                        42

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   42

                                 and Tesco keen to open new stores in close
                                                                                                                                                         30
                                 proximity to residential development. These                                                              0%
                                 local centres performed very well in 2020                                                                               20
                                 as they met the needs of the consumer at a
                                                                                                                                                               17

                                                                                                                                                                           17

                                                                                                                                                                                       17

                                                                                                                                                                                                 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                             17

                                 local level.                                                                                                            10
                                                                                                                                                                 12

                                                                                                                                                                            12

                                                                                                                                                                                        12

                                                                                                                                                                                                  12

                                                                                                                                                                                                              12

                                                                                                                                    cinema
                                                                                                                                    health & fitness      0
                                                                                                                                                                 16         17          18        19          20
                                                                                                                                    A3/A4

  17                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         18
“Another strong
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    demonstrates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    the resilience of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    the Gloucester
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    market.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Unit 3 St. Modwen Park Gloucester. Courtesy of St. Modwen.

                                                                                                           The completed Ecclesiastical Insurance headquarters,
                                                                                                                Gloucester Business Park. Courtesy of Arlington.

                                 Gloucester                                                                                                                                                                                                  The GE Aviation/Dowty Propellers building. Courtesy of Arlington.

                                 OFFICES                                                                                                                                                                     Take-Up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS                                                                                                                  Take-Up
                                 Adrian Rowley        T 01452 627133 E arowley@alderking.com                                                                                                                 000s sq ft                      Adrian Rowley T 01452 627133 E arowley@alderking.com                                                                                    000s sq ft
                                                                                                                                                            250                                                                                                                                                                                            800

                                 Through what turned out to be a turbulent         Elsewhere in the county, Iress acquired                                  200                                                                              2020 saw another strong performance by                St. Modwen has commenced work on Phase

                                                                                                                                                                                               220

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      705
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 700
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           600

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               650
                                 year for the sector, take-up in the Gloucester    some 50,000 sq ft in Formal Investments’                                                                                                                  the Gloucester industrial market with total           2 at St. Modwen Park Gloucester to deliver
                                                                                                                                             20%            150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    22%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            550
                                 office market remained approximately in line      Honeybourne Place located in St James                                                                                                                     take-up of circa 550,000 sq ft. The majority          three speculative new industrial warehouse

                                                                                                                                                                                                               160

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           400
                                                                                                                                                                     150

                                                                                                                                                                                  145

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               140
                                 with the five year norm at 140,000 sq ft.         Square, Cheltenham, the most significant                                 100                                                                              of the city’s supply in recent years has come         buildings of 36,000 sq ft, 42,000 sq ft and
                                                                                   office building undertaken in Cheltenham for                                                                                                              from new build development and this remains           55,000 sq ft, with a targeted completion date           200
                                                                                                                                                             50
                                 Perhaps of more relevance was the level           many years.                                                                                                                                               the case.                                             of June 2021.
                                 of H2 activity and here there was strong                                                                                     0                                                                                                                                                                                             0
                                 take-up and ongoing unsatisfied demand for        Supply of available space in Gloucester                                           16           17           18               19             20            St. Modwen’s first phase at St. Modwen Park           Furthermore, Paloma Capital and Chase                         16    17      18     19    20

                                 space. Whilst how occupiers use their office      remains low and is currently in the region of                                                                                                             Gloucester reached practical completion               Commercial intend to start on site at Access
                                 space may change in the short, medium or          200,000 sq ft. There seems little prospect                                                                                        Supply                  at the end of 2019, with the 45,000 sq ft             Park, Eastern Avenue, Gloucester with six                                           Supply
                                 long term, this change has brought about          of new build speculative office development                                                                               000s sq ft                      building let simultaneous with completion to          new industrial buildings from 10,000 sq ft to                                     000s sq ft
                                 continued demand.                                 coming forward and so new building delivery                              200                                                                              Adey Innovation. The 56,000 sq ft building            30,000 sq ft. Demolition and site clearance             400
                                                                                   will most likely be in the form of build to suit                                                                                                          let to ProCook in June and the 74,000                 is due to commence in early 2021 with the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               200
                                                                                                                                                                     180

                                                                                                                                                                                                               180

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       350

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               350

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      350

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            350
                                 During the year, Arlington completed the          delivery. Further land remains available for                             150                                                                              sq ft building was let to Swantex Paper in            industrial development to follow. The scheme            300
                                 new 66,000 sq ft headquarters building for        this purpose at Gloucester Business Park                                                                                                                  October. This, together with the letting of           also includes consent for 55,000 sq ft of
                                                                                                                                              11%
                                                                                                                                                                                  140

                                                                                                                                                                                               140

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 250
                                 Ecclesiastical Insurance Group at Gloucester      and centrally, Gloucester City Council’s Kings                           100                                                                              St. Modwen’s last building at Gateway 12 to           bulky goods retail space, a drive-thru, pub/            200

                                 Business Park. This is a stunning building        Quarter scheme has provision for new office                                                                                                               Advanced Insulation in July, demonstrates             restaurant and hotel.
                                                                                                                                                             50                                                                                                                                                                                            100
                                 currently being fitted out for occupation         development.                                                                                                                                              the resilience of the Gloucester market.
                                 early in 2021. Gloucester Business Park                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Elsewhere other schemes set to provide
                                                                                                                                                              0                                                                                                                                                                                             0
                                 remains an attractive out of centre location      In Cheltenham, completion of the                                                  16           17           18               19             20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Peveril Securities are scheduled to                   much needed Grade A industrial space                          16    17      18     19    20
                                 and strong interest is present in nearly all of   refurbishment of The Quadrangle scheduled                                                                                                                 commence work at Centre Severn, Barnwood              include Chancerygate’s 14 unit 91,200 sq ft
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                 the vacant office stock.                          for Q1 2021 will provide some 52,000 sq ft                                                                                                                on a new 125,000 sq ft distribution facility on       Festival Trade Park at Kingsditch Trading
                                                                                   of office space. This is a landmark building                                                              Headline rent                                   a 16 acre site which is being procured on a           Estate in Cheltenham. This will be its second                              Headline rent
                                 Demand for residential conversion                 centrally located adjoining Imperial Gardens                                                                                              £psf            pre-let basis and in Tewkesbury, Moog have            development in Cheltenham in as many                                                     £psf
                                                                                                                                                             25                                                                                                                                                                                             8
                                 opportunities remains strong and this,            and the scheme includes ground floor retail                                                                                                               agreed terms for a new 184,000 sq ft unit             years, having completed the 92,800 sq ft
                                 together with a further relaxation of planning    and restaurant space and a new rooftop                                    20                                                                              with expansion land, again on a pre-let basis.        Furlong Park at Bishops Cleeve in 2019 and

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               7

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      7

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            7
                                                                                                                                                                                                     21.50

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     21.50

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     21.50

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       6.75
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6
                                 policy, is set to deliver more activity in many   restaurant.                                                                                                                                                                                                     follows IPIF’s second phase of speculative
                                                                                                                                                                                        20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 6.5
                                                                                                                                                                           19

                                 under-utilised city centre buildings.                                                                        0%             15                                                                              Supply stands at approximately 350,000 sq             trade units completed also at Kingsditch         0%       4
                                                                                                                                                             10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ft. Available stock will be boosted by much           Trading Estate.
                                                                                                                                                                   11.75

                                                                                                                                                                                11.75

                                                                                                                                                                                             11.75

                                                                                                                                                                                                             11.75

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11.75

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             needed new speculative development starts.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2
                                                                                                                                                              5

                                                                                                                                                              0                                                                                                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                                                                     16     17                18     19                       20                                                                                                                                 16    17      18     19    20
                                                                                                                                                                    city centre              out of town

 19                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                20
“Strong investor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                demand remains,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                in particular in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               the industrial
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                sector.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         DVSA, Quedgeley. Courtesy of Brabon Properties.

                                                                                                      Lidl supermarket, Gloucester. Courtesy of Robert Hitchins.

                                 Gloucester                                                                                                                                                                              Gateway 12 Business Park. Courtesy of ProCook.

                                 RETAIL & LEISURE                                                                                                                   Zone A headline rent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         INVESTMENT                                                                                               Value of investment transactions
                                 Adrian Rowley       T 01452 627133 E arowley@alderking.com                                                                                                                    £psf      Oli Stretton          T 0117 317 1121            E ostretton@alderking.com                                                                          £ms
                                                                                                                                                            125                                                                                                                                                                          125
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Adrian Rowley         T 01452 627133             E arowley@alderking.com

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     123.8
                                 Within the central area, Rokeby                  Whilst demand for prime high street                                       100                                                                                                                                                                         100

                                                                                                                                                                   100
                                                                                                                                                                   100

                                                                                                                                                                              100
                                                                                                                                                                              100

                                                                                                                                                                                         100
                                                                                                                                                                                         100

                                                                                                                                                                                                    100
                                                                                                                                                                                                    100
                                 Developments continues with the major            space was challenged through 2020, it is                                                                                               2020 saw very few transactions in the region. Those opportunities that did present themselves
                                 reconstruction of the historic Downings          encouraging that demand for secondary                      20%             75
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                76%      75

                                                                                                                                                                                                               80
                                                                                                                                                                                                               80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         confirmed that strong investor demand remains, in particular in the industrial sector.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             68.33
                                 Malthouse building at Bakers Quay,               retail space remains good with a significant

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      62.7
                                                                                                                                                             50                                                                                                                                                                          50
                                 Gloucester Docks. Not only does this             level of take-up occurring in the central area,                                                                                        Wincanton, Brockworth. The largest                   DVSA Driving Test Centre, Quedgeley.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               37.2
                                                                                                                                                             25                                                                                                                                                                          25
                                 constitute a significantly important part of     the food and drink and leisure sectors being                                                                                           transaction of the year was this freehold            Assets with strong defensive characteristics

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             29.5
                                 Gloucester’s heritage, but the development       the most active.                                       Eastgate St          0                                                          single-let industrial unit sold by Railways          remain in strong demand. This freehold                      0
                                 also provides the link between Bakers Quay                                                                                         16         17         18            19         20                                                                                                                          16     17     18      19      20
                                                                                                                                         Kings Walk                                                                      Pension Trustees to Exeter Property Group in         government-let investment was sold by
                                 and Gloucester Quays. Downings Malthouse is      Out of town, at Kingsway, Robert Hitchins                                                                                              September for £23.49m, 6.13% NIY. The unit           Brabon Properties to Value & Income Trust
                                 set to provide 72 new residential apartments     has successfully completed the development                                 Out of town headline rent                                   is 241,500 sq ft and is let to Wincanton until       Plc in November for £4.65m, 5% NIY. The                                        Prime yields
                                 together with additional commercial space        of a new 24,000 sq ft food store for Lidl                                                                                    £psf      December 2023.                                       building provides a multi-purpose driving                                                         %
                                 scheduled for completion later in 2022.          together with a new retail/leisure scheme for                              20                                                                                                               test centre on a 1.53 acre site and is single-              8
                                                                                  occupiers B&M and Pure Gym.                                                                                                            Gateway 12 Business Park. This freehold              let to The Secretary of State for Housing,
                                 Gloucester City Council is pressing ahead                                                                                   15                                                          single-let industrial unit was sold by ProCook       Communities and Local Government for 25                     7
                                                                                                                                                                    16

                                                                                                                                                                               16

                                                                                                                                                                                          16

                                                                                                                                                                                                        16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   16

                                 with the redevelopment of Kings Quarter.         Paloma Capital and Chase Commercial are                                                                                                in a sale and leaseback to Leftfield Capital         years subject to a tenant break in 10 years.
                                 Following completion of the new bus station,     due on site to commence the redevelopment
                                                                                                                                               0%            10                                                          in September for £5.15m, 5.47% NIY. The              Alder King represented the vendor.                          6

                                 the demolition of the former Bruton Way          of the former Whitbread site in Eastern                                                                                                building is 43,626 sq ft and was let on a new
                                 multi-storey car park has cleared the site for   Avenue, this being the prime out of town                                    5                                                                                                                                                                           5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         20 year lease.
                                 the next phase of the development linking        retail pitch. The scheme includes planning
                                                                                                                                                              0                                                                                                                                                                           4
                                 into Kings Square.                               consent for 55,000 sq ft of bulky goods retail                                    16         17         18            19         20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Regent House, Rodney Road. This freehold                                                                              16     17     18      19      20
                                                                                  space together with a pub/restaurant, drive-                                                                                           multi-let office was sold by Accrue Capital to
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                                                                  thru restaurant and hotel.                                                                                                             Cew Capital LLP in March for £4.0m, 5.60%                                                                             industrial            4.75%
                                                                                                                                                                   Leisure headline rent                                 NIY. The building provides 10,000 sq ft of                                                                            office                 5.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               £psf                                                                                                                            retail high street       8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         refurbished period office accommodation in                                                                            retail out of town    7.25%
                                                                                                                                                             40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         the centre of Cheltenham.
                                                                                                                                                             30
                                                                                                                                                                         32

                                                                                                                                                                                    32

                                                                                                                                                                                              32

                                                                                                                                                                                                         32

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    32

                                                                                                                                               0%            20

                                                                                                                                                             10
                                                                                                                                                                   12

                                                                                                                                                                              12

                                                                                                                                                                                         12

                                                                                                                                                                                                   12

                                                                                                                                                                                                              12
                                                                                                                                                                    9

                                                                                                                                                                               9

                                                                                                                                                                                          9

                                                                                                                                                                                                    9

                                                                                                                                                                                                               9

                                                                                                                                         cinema
                                                                                                                                         health & fitness     0
                                                                                                                                                                    16         17         18        19         20
                                                                                                                                         A3/A4

 21                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 22
INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS                                                                                                                                                  Take-Up
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Andrew Ridler       T 0117 317 1071 E aridler@alderking.com                                                                                                             000s sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      80

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            85
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Demand for good quality industrial space           Ring Road Corridor from the A4 to the M32,                                   60
                                                                                                                                                                                                      remains strong, with a number of active            and Chippenham where St. Modwen has
                                                                                                                                                                                                      requirements, particularly for freehold space.     recently completed the first building on its 70                 25%          40
                                                                                                                                                                                                      However options within the city continue to        acre St. Modwen Park Chippenham scheme.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      be almost non-existent.                            This will provide 106,000 sq ft with another                                 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         88,000 sq ft to follow in the autumn of 2021.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      7.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     15
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Supply is limited to second hand stock.            The balance of the scheme can accommodate                                    0
                                                                                                                                                                                                      There has been no speculative industrial/          buildings up to 800,000 sq ft.                                                     16          17           18        19     20

                                                                                                                                                                                                      distribution development in Bath and none
                                                                                                                                                                                                      is expected for the foreseeable future with        Due to the lack of supply, take-up dropped                                                                             Supply
                                                                                                                                                                                                      alternative uses still able to significantly       back on the 2019 figure and was made up of                                                                           000s sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                      outbid industrial and logistics occupiers.         a number of smaller transactions involving                                   80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         smaller format secondary space.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Occupiers struggling to find accommodation                                                                                      60
                                                                                                                                                                                                      of a modern specification are therefore            The imbalance in demand and supply means
                                                                                                                                                                                                      forced to consider locations outside Bath          headline rentals for new space of up to 2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0%          40

                                                                                                                                                                                                      such as east Bristol, particularly along the       sq ft are now close to £10 psf per annum.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            16          17           18        19     20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Headline rent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     £psf
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        8.75
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            8.5
                                                                                                                                      CGI of Number 1 Bath Quays.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0%           6

                                 Bath
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2
                                                                                                                                                                                                      St. Modwen Park Chippenham.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Courtesy of St. Modwen.                                                                                                         0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            16          17           18        19     20

                                 OFFICES                                                                                                                                                 Take-Up
                                                                                                                                                                                                      RETAIL & LEISURE
                                 Tom Dugay T 0117 317 1094 E tdugay@alderking.com                                                                                                        000s sq ft   Rebecca Harries        T 0117 317 1086 E rharries@alderking.com
                                                                                                                                                             125

                                                                                                                                                                    120
                                 In common with the wider regional market,          The supply of immediately available, modern,                             100                                      Demand for smaller, lower-cost units in Bath              Zone A headline rent           Out of town headline rent                   Leisure headline rent

                                                                                                                                                                                   111
                                 Bath’s office market has been impacted             open plan accommodation within the city                                                                           remains strong, particularly from start-ups and                                   £psf                                   £psf                                                  £psf

                                                                                                                                                                           90

                                                                                                                                                                                          90
                                                                                                                                                              75
                                 by the ongoing Covid situation, although a         still remains limited. We estimate that total              13%                                                    independent operators. Restaurant occupiers

                                                                                                                                                                                               78
                                 consistent level of demand and lack of supply      supply stands at circa 94,000 sq ft which                                 50                                      are looking to occupy units that were previously    200                                  40                                     40

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      205

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            205
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                200
                                 going into the crisis helped limit the effects.    represents just over 12 months’ worth of take-                                                                    unattainable to them, where those landlords

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  185

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        185

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  35

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               35

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         35

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                35

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       35
                                                                                                                                                              25                                                                                          150                                   30                                    30
                                                                                    up based on the five year average. This figure                                                                    are now considering all levels of covenant.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     30
                                 Take-up in Bath in 2020 reached circa 78,000       includes 23,000 sq ft over four floors at Quay                             0                                      Footfall levels are steady and the council has

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          100                                   20                                    20
                                 sq ft, circa 13% down on 2019. Take-up was         House and 17,000 sq ft over two floors at                                       16     17      18     19   20     now pedestrianised some areas in the city
                                                                                    Kings Court.                                                                                                      centre which has helped the general shopping

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     15
                                 again partly restricted by the lack of available

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           50                                   10                                    10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     11
                                 space and the uncertainties surrounding the                                                                                                               Supply     environment. Bristol-based pizzeria Bosco is
                                 pandemic.                                          Available supply is set to increase during                                                           000s sq ft   preparing to open in the former CAU restaurant        0                                   0                                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                16    17    18    19    20           16     17      18   19    20            16          17          18        19     20
                                                                                    2021 with the eagerly anticipated completion                             125                                      on Milsom Place. Suit shop Suave Owl has also
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           cinema           health & fitness         A3/A4
                                 The TMT sector remains by far the most             of the South Quays development. No 1                                                                              recently opened on Milsom Street.
                                                                                                                                                             100
                                 active sector within Bath in terms of the          Bath Quays, the first speculative office
                                                                                                                                                                    95

                                                                                                                                                                                               94

                                 amount of space taken and the number of            development within the city centre for more
                                                                                                                                               15%            75
                                                                                                                                                                                                      INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                                                                          82

                                 individual transactions, with the public sector    than 20 years, is set to complete by the
                                                                                                                                                                           75

                                                                                                                                                                                   70

                                                                                                                                                              50
                                 also active.                                       middle of 2021 and will offer 45,000 sq ft of                                                                     Oli Stretton      T 0117 317 1121 E ostretton@alderking.com
                                                                                    Grade A office space. Adjoining this is Newark                            25
                                 The most notable transactions of 2020              Works, where 40,000 sq ft will be offered in
                                                                                                                                                               0                                      There were only two investment transactions in 2020, both in the                                 Value of investment                                           Prime yields
                                 included 24,000 sq ft let at Pinesgate,            suites ranging from 120 sq ft to 5,000 sq ft.                                                                                                                                                                             transactions                                                     %
                                                                                                                                                                    16     17      18     19   20     office sector. This is more a reflection of the lack of supply rather than
                                 where Civica and TrueSpeed took just over          Completion for Newark Works is expected by                                                                                                                                                                                                 £ms
                                                                                                                                                                                                      investor appetite which is likely to subsist, albeit mirroring the national
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                 15,000 sq ft and 9,000 sq ft respectively. The     the end of 2021.                                                                                                                                                                                           200                                    8
                                                                                                                                                                                  Headline rent       trends in terms of sector bias and general flight to quality.
                                 University of Bath also acquired 9,000 sq ft

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         189
                                 in the ground and first floors of Lewis House      Top headline rents in Bath city centre                                                                     £psf                                                                                            150                                     7
                                                                                                                                                              40                                      Queen Square House. This freehold Listed Georgian office building
                                 on Manvers Street.                                 remain at £31 psf. This is set to increase with
                                                                                                                                                                                                      was sold by Aviva in May for £3.8m, 4.78% NIY. The building which                        100                                     6
                                                                                    potential lettings at No 1 Bath Quays where a
                                                                                                                                                                                                      is arranged over three floors totalling 8,672 sq ft is multi-let with a

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            107.3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    96
                                                                                                                                                              30
                                                                                    rent of £34 psf is being quoted.
                                                                                                                                                                    31

                                                                                                                                                                           31

                                                                                                                                                                                   31

                                                                                                                                                                                          31

                                                                                                                                                                                               31

                                                                                                                                                                                                      WAULTC of approximately 3.25 years off an average rent of £22.70 psf.                    50                                      5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               22.9
                                                                                                                                                0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20.4
                                                                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Grosvenor House, The Square, Lower Bristol Road. This 18,546                              0                                      4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     16     17      18   19    20           16          17           18        19     20
                                                                                                                                                              10                                      sq ft single-let office building was acquired off-market by Wesleyan
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Assurance in November for £6.75m, 6.18% NIY. It is let to Amdocs Ltd                                                                  industrial                        4.25%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            office                            4.75%
                                                                                                                                                               0                                      with five years unexpired at £24.00 psf.                                                                                              retail high street                 5.5%
                                                                                                                                                                    16     17      18     19   20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            retail out of town                6.75%
                                                                                                                                                                    city centre

23                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           24
INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS                                                                                                                                                  Take-Up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Andrew Maynard         T 01823 444879            E amaynard@alderking.com                                                                                              000s sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The first three industrial lettings on              Progress at Hinkley Point C continues with                                 300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            325
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Bridgwater Gateway completed in Q3 and              another key milestone reached in 2020 with
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Q4 2020, whilst the construction of a               the completion of the first of three off-shore                 0%          200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Costa Coffee drive-thru at the entrance to          tunnels needed for the power station’s

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        190
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      the business park also started on site in           cooling-water system. The tunnel boring                                    100

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    120
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      November.                                           machine made the 3.5km journey 33m below

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  105

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            105
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          the Bristol Channel to complete the first                                   0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Infrastructure works began on Peninsula 23,         in-take tunnel in December 2020. Generally,                                       16          17          18            19       20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      with planning progressing for the first three       activity at the site ramped up significantly in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      buildings totalling over 77,000 sq ft, with         2020 and will continue to do so in 2021.                                                                                 Supply
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      deals agreed with Monmouth Scientific and                                                                                                                              000s sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Somerset Willow. Construction is likely to          The link road connecting Gravity to the                                    400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      commence in early 2021. The business park           M5 is close to completion and will allow the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      totals 15 acres and will provide opportunities      625 acre sustainable mixed use scheme to                                   300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      for roadside, office and industrial occupiers       push forwards.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        275
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      over the next few years.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  240

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            240
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     200

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    225
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     100

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            16          17          18            19       20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Headline rent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          £psf
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            8.75
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    8.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  8.5
                                                                                                   CGI of proposed Monmouth Scientific building at Peninsula 23.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3%            6

                                 Bridgwater
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            16          17          18            19       20

                                 OFFICES                                                                                                                                                        Take-Up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      RETAIL & LEISURE
                                 Andrew Maynard           T 01823 444879         E amaynard@alderking.com                                                                                       000s sq ft            Andrew Maynard         T 01823 444879            E amaynard@alderking.com
                                                                                                                                                            100

                                 Despite a more challenging office market in       Further activity also occurred with                                       75
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The new Aldi store on the Northgate site                  Zone A headline rent          Out of town headline rent                    Leisure headline rent
                                 2020, the ongoing demand for small office         completion of the Phase 2 Enterprise                                                                                               opened in October 2020, with a sale of the old                                £psf                                      £psf                                                        £psf
                                                                                                                                                                   80
                                 space from the Hinkley Point C (HPC) supply       Hub building and Phase 3 buildings at the                 40%             50                                                       store agreed some months ago. The expanded
                                 chain maintained a reasonable churn in the        Somerset Innovation Centre on Woodlands                                                                                            Bridgwater Retail Park welcomed several new          50                                 20                                      20

                                                                                                                                                                                        50
                                                                                                                                                                              40
                                 market with The Exchange on Express Park          Business Park, Bridgwater, which will target                                                                                       occupiers in 2020 with Costa Coffee, The Card

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       19
                                                                                                                                                             25                                                                                                            40

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15                                      15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               42
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                42

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     42

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          42
                                 nearing 100% occupancy at the end of the          occupiers linked to the energy sector and the                                                                                      Factory, Subway, Consol Tanning Studio and a

                                                                                                                                                                                                 25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           30

                                                                                                                                                                                                           15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    35
                                 year. The town centre market has also fared       HPC project.                                                               0                                                       new Cancer Research UK Superstore opening

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10                                      10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          11.5
                                 well given the impact of Covid-19.                                                                                                16         17        18       19        20         on the site. A new Ibis hotel is expected to open

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             7.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        7.5
                                                                                   As a result of the reasonable levels of activity                                                                                   in Spring 2021 offering 144 bedrooms on the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5                                       5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           10
                                 There continues to be demand for freeholds,       in 2020, rental levels maintained their 2019                                                                     Supply            Woodland Business Park in Bridgwater, situated
                                 fuelled in part by developers looking for PDR     levels.                                                                                                      000s sq ft            next to the Somerset Energy Innovation and            0                                  0                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                16   17   18   19   20             16    17     18     19     20             16         17          18        19          20
                                 opportunities to satisfy the ongoing demand                                                                                100                                                       Enterprise Centres and opposite the new
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           cinema           health & fitness             A3/A4
                                 for rental properties to provide short term                                                                                                                                          Peninsula 23 development scheme.
                                 accommodation for workers involved with                                                                                     75
                                                                                                                                                                   75

                                                                                                                                                                                        75

                                 HPC.
                                                                                                                                             16%                                                                      INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                                                                                           70

                                                                                                                                                             50
                                                                                                                                                                              60

                                                                                                                                                                                                 60

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oli Stretton T 0117 317 1121 E ostretton@alderking.com                   Andrew Maynard T 01823 444879 E amaynard@alderking.com
                                                                                                                                                             25

                                                                                                                                                              0                                                       No transactions were reported last year                                                        Value of investment                                            Prime yields
                                                                                                                                                                   16         17        18       19        20         which we attribute to the pronounced effects                                                          transactions                                                      %
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      of Covid-19.                                                                                                            £ms
Alder King Market Monitor 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Alder King Market Monitor 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              40                                      8
                                                                                                                                                                                       Headline rent
                                                                                                                                                                                                           £psf                                                                                               30                                       7
                                                                                                                                                             20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       25.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20                                       6

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                21.9
                                                                                                                                                             15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         11.6
                                                                                                                                                                                  15

                                                                                                                                                                                           15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   9.1
                                                                                                                                                                       14.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                    14.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                               14.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10                                       5
                                                                                                                                              0%             10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0                                       4
                                                                                                                                                                   8

                                                                                                                                                                              8

                                                                                                                                                                                       8

                                                                                                                                                                                                8

                                                                                                                                                                                                           8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   16    17     18     19     20            16          17          18            19       20
                                                                                                                                                              5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            industrial                           5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            office                               7%
                                 CGI of proposed Somerset Willow building at                                                                                  0                                                                                                                                                                                             retail high street                   8%
                                 Peninsula 23.                                                                                                                      16    17            18     19   20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            retail out of town                7.25%
                                                                                                                                                                   town centre          out of town

25                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 26
You can also read