A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS - Reaping the environmental and economic benefits of using more LPG in road transport - WLPGA
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
A GLOBAL
ROADMAP FOR
AUTOGAS
Reaping the environmental and
economic benefits of using more LPG
in road transport
March 2019
WWW.WLPGA.ORG
A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 01
The World LPG Association
The WLPGA was established in 1987 in Dublin and unites the broad
interests of the vast worldwide LPG industry in one organisation. It
was granted Category II Consultative Status with the United Nations
Economic and Social Council in 1989.
The WLPGA promotes the use of LPG to foster a safer, cleaner,
healthier and more prosperous world.
Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by Trevor Morgan of Menecon Consulting.
Acknowledgement also goes out to the many representatives of the
LPG industry in the countries surveyed in the report, who provided
invaluable assistance. Cécile Nourigat, former Autogas Manager at
WLPGA, and David Tyler, Director, WLPGA, were responsible for co-
ordinating the project.
Copyright
© 2019 World LPG Association (WLPGA).
All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may
be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the
publishers.
All information in this report is verified to the best of the authors’
and publishers’ ability. They do not guarantee the accuracy of the
data contained in the report and accept no responsibility for any
consequence of their use.
02 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 03
CONTENTS
Glossary Glossary 04
Executive summary 06
AFV Alternative fuel vehicle Introduction 10
CNG Compressed natural gas
CO Carbon monoxide The challenge 12
CO2 Carbon dioxide Meeting the growing demand for mobility 12
EV Electric vehicle The environmental imperative 15
HDV Heavy-duty vehicle The role of alternative fuels 16
ICE Internal combustion engine
IEA International Energy Agency Why Autogas? 22
LDV Light-duty vehicle Autogas is clean 22
LGE Liquid Gas Europe Autogas is practical – and safe 26
LNG Liquefied natural gas Autogas is affordable 28
LPG Liquefied petroleum gas Autogas is available – and a proven fuel 31
NGV Natural gas vehicle Autogas as a bridging fuel 32
NOx Nitrogen oxides
The vision 34
NO2 Nitrogen dioxide
The drivers of Autogas demand 34
OEM Original equipment manufacturer
Business as usual: the Baseline Scenario 38
PM Particulate matter
Doubling market share: the Alternative Scenario 42
SCC Social cost of carbon
VOC Volatile organic compounds
Quantifying the benefits of making the vision a reality 46
WHO World Health Organization
Clearing the air 46
WLPGA World LPG Association
Mitigating climate change 50
WTW Well to wheels Estimating the social welfare benefits 50
A plan of action 54
From potential to reality 54
What the Autogas industry will do 57
What policy makers need to do 58
How other stakeholders need to contribute 61
Annex 1: Autogas market data 62
Annex 2: References 63
04 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 05
“Autogas is the most popular
alternative to gasoline and diesel for
passenger cars and vans worldwide.”
EXECUTIVE
Autogas is a clean fuel. Numerous studies easy. Switching to the fuel involves spending
have shown that Autogas-related emissions only modest sums on converting an existing
of noxious and toxic air pollutants are vehicle and refuelling infrastructure, and vehicle
among the lowest of all the automotive performance is as good, if not better, than with
SUMMARY fuels commercially available today. The
environmental performance of Autogas is
particularly impressive with respect to regulated
conventional fuels. LPG is competitively priced
– at least if taxed appropriately – making it an
affordable fuel. And supplies are plentiful, with
toxic gases, notably nitrous oxides (NOx) and rising production of natural gas and the enormous
particulate matter (PM). Emissions of NOx – the scope for diverting supplies away from other
most important of the regulated gases for air less valuable uses. In short, Autogas is the only
quality – from Autogas are much lower than from alternative fuel that delivers a wide range of
gasoline and, especially, diesel. NOx is a toxic air benefits, including lower emissions, without having
pollutant in its own right as well as the main cause to compromise on vehicle performance and
This report examines the global potential for Autogas – liquefied petroleum
of smog. PM emissions are negligible for Autogas autonomy.
gas, or LPG, used as a transport fuel – in the vehicle fleet through to 2040. and very low for gasoline vehicles, but remain a
major problem for diesel vehicles. Concerns about For all the advantages of Autogas, the
It considers two scenarios: a baseline ‘business- public health – in most major cities and the the health impact of emissions of fine PM from prospects for continuing growth in demand
as-usual’ case, where policy support for Autogas is second-biggest source of emissions of carbon- diesel vehicles in particular have been rising in depend critically on government policies.
assumed to remain at current levels, and a more dioxide (CO2) worldwide. Public awareness about recent years, as more evidence of their impact on Motorists will only switch to Autogas if it is cheaper
bullish ‘alternative scenario’, where the Autogas the environmental and health effects of road health comes to light. PM emissions from diesel at the pump than other fuels so that savings on
sector enjoys stronger support from governments, transport – and pressure on the authorities to vehicles are now known to cause cancer. running costs quickly repay the upfront cost of
vehicle manufacturers and the LPG industry. In act – is growing by the day. The need to switch converting the vehicle. That means governments
the latter case, the number of Autogas vehicles to Autogas, and other clean alternatives to Autogas also outperforms gasoline and diesel have to make sure that the fuel is taxed less than
triples and demand for the product doubles conventional oil-based fuels, has never been more for CO2 emissions, an advantage that is set to other, more polluting fuels. Financial incentives
compared with current levels over the next 20 urgent. grow as more and more LPG originates from directed at the vehicle itself, such as grants or
years or so. The associated social, economic and natural gas processing plants, which emit tax credits for converting to Autogas and other
environmental benefits are estimated at over Autogas is the most popular alternative to less than oil refineries. As such, Autogas could non-financial measures, can also boost the
US$54 billion. gasoline and diesel for passenger cars and play an important role in mitigating greenhouse- attractiveness of switching to Autogas.
vans worldwide. Demand for Autogas has been gas emissions until such time as ultra-low or
The world is on the move: a growing growing steadily in recent years, reaching around zero-emission vehicle technologies such as electric Based on current policies, the global share
population and an expanding economy 27 million tonnes in 2017, and, in some countries, vehicles can be commercialised on a large scale. In of Autogas in the road-fuel market and
are continuing to drive up demand for accounts for a significant share of the overall this sense, fossil-based Autogas can be regarded the vehicle fleet is to stagnate. In a Baseline
mobility – especially in Asia, Latin America transport fuel market. There are now over 27 as a “bridging fuel” in the transition to a clean, Scenario, in which no change in national policies
and Africa. That means more vehicles (two- and million Autogas vehicles in use around the world affordable and sustainable transport system. In is assumed, global Autogas consumption is
three- wheelers, cars and trucks) and a need for – almost four times more than in 2000. This has the longer term, Autogas derived from bioLPG projected to continue to grow, reaching a peak
more energy to run them. Rising mobility is a not happened by chance: a growing number of could play a major role. of a little over 31 Mt in 2030 – about 18% higher
sign of greater prosperity and personal freedom, governments around the world actively encourage than in 2017. But it then goes into gradual
but it is also damaging our environment. The use of the fuel in recognition of its notable In addition to its environmental decline, dipping to just under 30 Mt in 2040.
use of conventional gasoline and diesel for environmental benefits, as well as its inherent credentials, Autogas holds a number Globally, the Autogas fleet reaches a plateau of
road transport is already the leading cause of practical and cost advantages over conventional of practical advantages over other around 39 million by the end of the 2030s – 45%
outdoor air pollution – the leading threat to and other alternative fuels. fuels. Driving an Autogas car is safe and up on 2017.
06 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 07
The fleet continues to expand in all regions Making the vision of tripling the number of
throughout the projection period except in Autogas vehicles between now and 2040 a
Europe, where it goes into long-term decline after reality would bring major socioeconomic
2030. The share of Autogas in the global vehicle benefits in the form of cleaner air, improved
fleet remains broadly constant at 2% to 2030, but human health and reduced climate change.
then declines gradually to 1.7% by 2040. By 2040, we estimate that it would lower global
emissions of NOx from LDVs by over 4% and
But a far more positive future for Autogas is those of PM2.5 by close to 5%, yielding social
possible. An Alternative Scenario assumes that welfare gains, including savings on health costs
the number of Autogas vehicles and their share and improved productivity, valued at almost
of Autogas in the overall vehicle fleet reach twice US$40 billion. World emissions of CO2 on a
the levels of those in the Baseline Scenario in each well-to-wheels (WTW) basis would also be cut
region by 2040. Global Autogas consumption by a cumulative total of around 130 Mt over
continues to grow steadily in the Alternative 2018-2040, yielding additional welfare gains of
Scenario, reaching 60 Mt by 2040 – well over twice more than US$15 billion. These gains would be
the current level. The Autogas vehicle fleet grows complemented by the economic benefits enjoyed
even faster as fuel economy continues to improve by end-users making the switch to Autogas.
throughout the projection period, reaching almost Motorists would enjoy lower fuel costs that
80 million in 2040 – nearly three times the current quickly payback the upfront cost of converting
size. Worldwide, Autogas vehicles make up 3.4% of their vehicle or buying a slightly more expensive
the total fleet in 2040, compared with 1.7% in the OEM model. Additional economic benefits would
Baseline Scenario and around 2% today. also come from the additional jobs created in the
Autogas installation sector.
Making this Alternative Scenario a
reality would require relatively modest These benefits will not be realised without
strengthening of incentive policies in most concerted action by all stakeholders to
countries in addition to support from the tackle the barriers to market development.
Autogas industry, vehicle manufacturers Autogas suppliers themselves are committed to
and fuel-system equipment producers and taking action, including reaching out to citizens
installers. The results of econometric analysis to inform them of the potential of Autogas
show that the average payback period for to keep people on the move while protecting
switching from gasoline to Autogas would need the environment, strengthening ties with car
to fall on average from 26 to 18 months, either manufacturers to develop engines that are more
by an increase in the tax on gasoline relative conducive to the use of Autogas, continuing to
to Autogas or by the introduction of a grant or ensure that Autogas supply worldwide matches
tax credit to cover part or all of the conversion demand, expanding filling station networks and
cost. But the need for these measures would be promoting the training and certification of Autogas
alleviated or, in some cases, removed entirely kit installers. But the role of policy makers is
by additional measures to discourage the use crucial: transport and fuel tax policies need to
of diesel on health and environmental grounds, ensure that Autogas is financially attractive to end
including higher taxes. Diesel, which competes users. Other private sector stakeholders, including
most with Autogas in high-mileage vehicles, is energy producers and fuel system equipment
often – perversely – taxed less in energy terms manufacturers and installers, also need to play
than Autogas at present. Other non-financial their part by investing in new vehicle technologies
measures, such as exemptions for Autogas and bioLPG.
vehicles from driving restrictions in city centres for
environmental reasons, could also help boost the
attractiveness of Autogas.
08 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 09
INTRODUCTION
Autogas is the most popular alternative to the two conventional It can also play an important role in mitigating Meeting that target will require concerted
automotive fuels – gasoline and diesel – for two- and three-wheelers, greenhouse-gas emissions until such action on the part of (i) the Autogas
time as ultra-low or zero-emission vehicle sector – fuel suppliers, distributors
passenger cars and vans worldwide, and a leading fuel for medium and
technologies become commercially viable on a and retailers, (ii) the motor industry -
heavy-duty vehicles.
large scale. And existing conventional vehicles vehicle manufacturers and producers
can easily be converted to run on Autogas, and installers of fuel systems – and
Demand has been growing steadily in recent policy goals, so that the fuel is not always bringing immediate benefits. In this sense, (iii) governments to make switching to
years, reaching around 27 million tonnes in taxed and priced appropriately. The focus of Autogas can be regarded as a “bridging fuel” Autogas attractive to end users. This
2017, and, in some countries, accounts for government policies in many cases is now in the transition to a zero-emission energy roadmap identifies the barriers to market
a significant share of the overall LPG and increasingly focused on boosting the role system that is likely to last decades. development and scopes out the actions
transport-fuel market. There are now over of electric vehicles (EVs). Yet EVs are still far needed to overcome those barriers and
27 million Autogas vehicles in use around from being able to compete widely with either The purpose of this report is to set out ensure that the vision of a vibrant Autogas
the world – almost four times more than in conventional fuels or Autogas. In any case, a roadmap for how Autogas can play market is achieved.
2000. This has not happened by chance: a for as long as the electricity to power these that role to the full. It starts by setting the
growing number of governments around vehicles is produced using fossil fuels, they scene, with a review of the global prospects
the world actively encourage use of the will offer only limited environmental benefits. for road transport and the advantages of
fuel in recognition of its notable health and Autogas over other fuels. It then establishes
environmental benefits, both in improving air The most practical approach in the an aspirational yet entirely realistic target
quality and mitigating climate change, as well short-term to reducing emissions of air of doubling the global share of Autogas in
as its inherent practical and cost advantages pollutants and greenhouse gases in road the overall road-transport fuel market built
over conventional and other alternative fuels. transport is to encourage people and on a set of plausible projections of how the
businesses to switch to cleaner-burning road-transport fuel market could evolve to
But, in many cases, this message is not fuels that are already commercially 2040. And it presents quantitative estimates
getting across. Motorists are not always available and competitively priced. of just how big the social, economic and
properly informed about the financial benefit Autogas is the obvious option. It outperforms environmental benefits of reaching that target
of switching to Autogas. And policy makers are conventional fuels and most other alternative would be, relative to a business-as-usual
not always aware of the potential for Autogas automotive fuels for local and regional baseline.
to contribute to transport and environmental environmental benefits.
10 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 11
“Vehicle ownership rates in the
emerging economies are still far
below the saturation point reached
in most of the advanced economies,
THE pointing to further strong growth
in the global vehicle fleet over the
CHALLENGE coming decades.”
The world is on the move. Global population is growing and the economy Figure 1: World energy consumption for road transport by country/region and gross domestic product
is expanding, driving up demand for mobility – especially in Asia, Latin
America and Africa. That means more vehicles – two- and three-wheelers,
cars and trucks – and a need for more energy to run them. Rising
mobility is a sign of greater prosperity and personal freedom, but it is
also damaging our environment as increased consumption of gasoline
and diesel contribute to climate change and to air pollution – the leading
threat to public health worldwide. The need to switch to Autogas and other
alternatives to conventional oil-based fuels has never been more urgent.
MEETING THE GROWING DEMAND
FOR MOBILITY
The demand for mobility – of people There is a close correlation between the size
and goods – is rising inexorably across of the global economy, the total distance
the world as the population grows and travelled by road vehicles and the amount of
people get richer. Most of this demand energy they consume. Most of the increase in
takes the form of road transport: two- and road transport is occurring and will continue
three-wheelers and passenger cars to move to occur in the emerging economies of Asia,
people and commercial vans and trucks Africa and Latin America, where population
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) online databases; International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook online
to move goods. And unless the economy and economic activity are expanding most databases.
collapses, demand for road transport will rapidly (Figure 1).
keep on rising for the foreseeable future.
12 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 13
The global fleet of road vehicles – the
main indicator of the demand for
This points to further strong growth in the
fleets in those countries over the coming
“Air pollution is the “new tobacco”. 97% of
mobility – will undoubtedly continue to
cities in low and middle income countries,
decades as their populations grow and the
expand for decades to come. It grew from income gap with the advanced economies
892 million in 2005 to 1.282 billion in 2015 narrows further. The latest long-term
– a rise of 44%. 1 Light-duty vehicles (LDVs), projections from the International Energy and almost half in high-income countries,
including passenger cars and commercial Agency show the global fleet rising by half
vans, currently make up about 85% of the
total fleet. Growth in the global fleet has
by 2030 and by 87% by 2040, with most of
the growth coming from Asia, Latin America,
fail to meet the Air Quality Guidelines of the
been strongest in the emerging economies,
where ownership rates are still far below
Africa and the Middle East (Figure 2). Vehicle
ownership per 1000 people is projected to
World Health Organization.”
the saturation point reached in most of the climb by 76% from 159 in 2015 to 280 in
advanced economies. 2050.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPERATIVE
Figure 2: World fleet of road vehicles by major region in the IEA Reference Technology Scenario
Choices about vehicle technology (PM) from cars and trucks are the main sources
and fuels to meet rising demand for of this pollution in most cases. The head of
mobility in the coming decades will the WHO recently called air pollution the “new
have far-reaching consequences for tobacco”.4
the environment. The use of conventional
gasoline and diesel for road transport is already Concerns about the health impact
the leading cause of ambient (outdoor) air of emissions of fine PM from diesel
pollution in most major cities and the second- vehicles in particular have been growing
biggest source of emissions of carbon-dioxide in recent years, as more evidence of
(CO2) worldwide after power generation. Public their impact on health emerges. A 2012
awareness about the environmental and health assessment by the WHO’s International Agency
effects of road transport – and pressure on the for Research on Cancer (IARC) concluded that
authorities to act – is growing by the day. ambient air pollution is carcinogenic to humans,
with PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of less
Outdoor air pollution is the fourth- than 2.5 microns) most closely associated with
largest overall risk factor for human increased incidence of cancer, especially lung
health worldwide after high blood cancer.5 These worries, heightened by revelations
pressure, dietary risks and smoking. about fraudulent emissions testing of diesel
It caused an estimated 4.2 million premature cars by the German carmaker, Volkswagen, have
Source: IEA (2017a).
deaths worldwide per year in 2016 due to prompted some local and national authorities
cardiovascular and respiratory disease, and to restrict the movement of diesel vehicles and
cancers.2 Data for 2017 show that 97% of cities seek to discourage use of the fuel. For example,
Meeting the growth in demand for road Average fuel economy of light-duty vehicles
with more than 100 000 inhabitants do not meet four German cities – Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg
transport mobility will require more (LDVs, including passenger cars and vans)
the Air Quality Guidelines of the World Health and Stuttgart – have introduced exclusion zones
energy. Cars and trucks have been getting improved by around 1.2% per year between
Organization (WHO) in low and middle income for diesel cars. In many countries, taxes on
more efficient over the years, but the pace 2005 and 2015, taking account of changes in
countries, and 49% in high-income countries.3 diesel have been raised. And more than a dozen
of improvement in fuel economy has never the size and configuration of the fleet (GFEI,
In some emerging economies, notably China countries, including France, India and the United
been fast enough to offset the underlying 2018). Over the same period, global road fuel
and India, urban air pollution has reached Kingdom, have already announced long-term
growth in demand for mobility. consumption grew by more than 2% per year.
catastrophic proportions. Emissions of nitrogen goals of banning the sale of both diesel and
oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC), gasoline cars, while other countries are posed to
carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter follow suit.
1
http://www.oica.net/category/vehicles-in-use/ 2
http://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health
3
http://www.who.int/airpollution/data/cities/en/
4
http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/29-10-2018-more-than-90-of-the-world%E2%80%99s-children-breathe-toxic-air-every-day
5
https://www.iarc.fr/en/media-centre/pr/2012/pdfs/pr213_E.pdf
14 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 15
There is also an urgent need to step up This will require far more radical policy Figure 3: World energy consumption for road transport by fuel and share of alternative fuels
efforts to curb emissions of greenhouse action around the world than is currently
gases from road transport. The sector planned. Under current policies, including
accounts for almost a fifth of total energy- nationally determined contributions under the
related emissions of CO 2, a share that has Paris Agreement, global energy-related CO2
been rising constantly in recent years. emissions – the main greenhouse gas – are
According to the latest report from the projected to carry on rising, levelling off at
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change around 40 gigatonnes by 2060 – 16% higher than
(IPCC), global net emissions of greenhouse in 2014, implying a temperature increase of over
gases including CO 2 would need to fall by 3 degrees (IEA, 2017a). It is clear that keeping
45% between 2010 and 2030 and to zero the increase even to less than 2 degrees will
by around 2050 to be on track to meet the require big reductions in emissions in all end-use
long-term goal of limiting the temperature sectors, including road transport. For example,
increase to 1.5 degrees under the 2015 Paris the European Parliament has called for a goal
Agreement (IPCC, 2018). of achieving a zero-emission car fleet by 2050;
biofuels are expected to play a major role in
meeting this goal (EAFO, 2017).
“Keeping the global temperature increase to Source: IEA online databases.
under 2 degrees will require big reductions
in emissions in all end-use sectors, including In volumes terms, Autogas is the leading The share of Autogas in total automotive-fuel
unblended alternative fuel for LDVs consumption varies widely across countries,
road transport; this will not happen without and the second most important one
for all vehicle types after natural gas,
ranging from a mere 0.1% in the United States
to about one-fifth in Ukraine. Autogas makes up
far more radical policy action around the accounting for 1.2% of total fuel use.
Autogas consumption worldwide has almost
more than 10% of the automotive-fuel market in
four other countries: Bulgaria, Korea, Poland and
world than is currently planned. ”
doubled since 2000 (Figure 4 and Figure 5). Turkey. The enormous disparity in the market
Yet Autogas use is still concentrated in a penetration of Autogas is explained mainly
small number of countries: just five countries by differences in the strength of government
– Korea, Turkey, Russia, Poland and Italy – incentive policies (WLPGA/Liquid Gas Europe,
together accounted for under half of global 2018). There is considerable potential for
THE ROLE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS
Autogas consumption in 2017. expanding the role of Autogas in all countries.
Reducing drastically the environmental in aggregate, they accounted for around 7%
impact of road transport in the face of of total road-transport energy consumption
rising demand for mobility will not be in 2016, up from less than 2% in 2000 (Figure
possible without a major shift to clean 3). Total consumption of alternative fuels was “The enormous disparity in the market
alternative automotive fuels. Continuing 42% higher in 2016 than in 2010 and almost
improvements in fuel economy will also be five-and-a-half times higher than in 2000. penetration of Autogas around the world
needed. Today, gasoline and diesel refined
from crude oil still dominate the transport-
fuel mix in most parts of the world, though
is explained mainly by differences in the
the share of alternatives, including Autogas,
is growing rapidly:
strength of government incentive policies.”
16 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 17
Figure 4: World energy consumption in the road transport sector Figure 5: World Autogas consumption by country
Source: IEA databases.
Source: WLPGA/Argus (2018).
BOX 1: WHAT IS AUTOGAS? The other main alternative fuels are The prospects for hydrogen-powered fuel
biofuels, natural gas – in the form cells, the use of which remains negligible for
of compressed natural gas (CNG) or now, hinge on major technological advances
Autogas is the abridged name for automotive scale bulk storage and seaborne transportation as liquefied natural gas (LNG) – and and cost reductions.
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) – that is, LPG used a liquid, but it is transported and stored locally in electricity. Biofuels derived from vegetable
as an automotive transport fuel. LPG is the generic pressurised tanks or bottles (cylinders). BioLPG – matter such as ethanol or biodiesel, which The increasing market share of
name for mixtures of hydrocarbons that change renewable LPG derived from production processes are normally blended into conventional alternative fuels is largely the result of
from a gaseous to liquid state when compressed that use biomass as the feedstock, usually as a co- gasoline and diesel, have been making major government policies. The initial impetus for
at moderate pressure or when chilled. The product – is an emerging source of LPG. inroads, their share of total automotive fuel the development of alternative fuels came
chemical composition of LPG can vary, but is consumption having risen eight-fold since from the oil-price shocks of the 1970s, as
usually made up of predominantly propane and LPG has high energy content per tonne compared 1990 to 4% in 2016 (Figure 3). But the scope countries sought to reduce their dependence
butane (normal butane and iso-butane). Autogas with most other oil products and natural gas, for further increases in biofuel supply using on imports of crude oil and refined products.
generally ranges from a 30% to 99% propane and burns readily in the presence of air. It is conventional technology is likely to be limited Environmental and health concerns have
mix. In some countries, the mix varies according also a particularly good engine fuel and is highly by competition for land to grow food crops, as since overtaken energy security as the
to the season as the physical characteristics of portable. These characteristics have made LPG well as high production costs. Natural gas has principal driver of government policies to
the two gases differ slightly according to ambient an increasingly popular fuel for domestic heating also seen significant market growth, mainly promote such fuels, as they are generally
temperatures. and cooking, commercial use and agricultural and for heavy-duty vehicles, though cost and fuel less polluting. The main approaches that
industrial processes, as well for transport as an availability are constraining factors in many governments use are financial incentives, in
LPG is obtained either as a product from crude- alternative automotive fuel. cases. Plug-in hybrids and pure battery EVs the form of differentiated taxes and subsidies
oil refining or from natural-gas or oil production. are now starting to be commercialised on a according to the type of fuel or vehicle, and
At present, more than 60% of global LPG supply Autogas has different names in different countries. significant scale, boosting their share of total regulatory measures, including emission
comes from natural gas processing plants, though It is known as propane in North America and LPG road transport energy use from just 0.1% in standards, purchase mandates for public
the share varies markedly among regions and or GPL in some European and African countries. 2010 to an estimated 0.5% in 2018, but their and/or private vehicle fleets and exemptions
countries. With both processes, LPG must be Whatever it is called, the proven advantages of attractiveness remains constrained for the from city-driving restrictions. Other measures
separated out from the oil-product or natural-gas the fuel are the same: it is clean, safe, practical, moment by their high cost and limited driving include support for technology development
streams. LPG is generally refrigerated for large- affordable, portable, flexible and readily available. range (Box 2). and public awareness programmes (Table 1).
18 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 19BOX 2: EVs ARE COMING – BUT HOW QUICKLY? Table 1: Typology of government policies and measures to promote alternative fuels
Fiscal/financial Regulatory Other
The attention of vehicle manufacturers and EV and/or stronger mandates. EVs still struggle
policy makers is increasingly focused on EVs, to compete with established alternative fuel Excise-duty exemption or
Mandatory sales/purchase
rebate
as the cost of producing batteries falls and technologies – including Autogas – in the requirements for public and/or Government own-use of AFVs
private fleets (with enforcement)
their performance improves, particularly with mainstream car market because of the high
respect to driving distance between recharges. purchase price of the vehicle, the relatively low Road/registration-tax Standards to harmonise Information dissemination and
It is widely believed that EVs will largely replace distance between recharges, the time required exemption or rebate refuelling facilities public awareness campaigns
vehicles based on internal combustion engines to fully recharge the battery and limited
Vehicle sales-tax exemption Voluntary agreements with
in the coming decades. So far, EV deployment recharging infrastructure. For example, in the or income/profit tax credit Vehicle-conversion standards OEMs to develop and market
has mostly been driven by policy. Many United Kingdom, where the authorities in some (purchasers and OEMs) AFV technologies
countries have introduced financial incentives or cities are encouraging taxis to switch to EVs in
Tax credits for investment in Direct funding for research,
mandates for purchasing EVs. China, the leading the taxi sector, there are objections from drivers Coherent and appropriate
distribution infrastructure and development, demonstration
health and safety regulations
market by volume, and Norway, where EVs have on the working time lost due to the time it takes R&D and deployment of AFVs
the biggest market share, have the strongest to recharge the battery, as well as the perceived
Grants/tax credits for AFV Exemptions from city-driving
policy push. health effects of being in close proximity to conversion/acquisition. restrictions
batteries for many hours a day. Batteries are
Global sales of EVs hit a record 1.15 million in currently the main reason of the higher upfront Rapid depreciation for commer-
cial purchasers of Autogas vehi-
2017, or 1.2% of total LDV sales, boosting the costs of EVs compared with other vehicles, cles and owners of distribution
EV fleet to more than 3.1 million. That number though their cost is likely to continue to fall and infrastructure
could rise to about 15 million by 2020 and 125 their performance improve significantly in the
Exemption from parking/road-
million by 2030, based on current policy plans next few years with economies of scale and use charges
(IEA, 2018a). Faster deployment is possible, further technological progress. Battery life and
but that would require much bigger subsidies their disposal continue to pose economic and
Source: WLPGA/Liquid Gas Europe (2018).
to reduce the cost of purchasing or owning an environmental challenges.
20 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 21“Autogas out-performs gasoline and
diesel and most other alternative fuels
WHY in the majority of studies comparing the
environmental performance of conventional
AUTOGAS? and alternative fuels.”
So why is Autogas used by more vehicles around the world than any other Numerous studies have shown that They are negligible for Autogas and very
unblended alternative fuel? It is a clean fuel, emitting significantly less Autogas-related emissions of noxious and low for gasoline vehicles, but remain a
toxic air pollutants – both regulated and major problem for diesel vehicles. Autogas
air pollutants such as NOx and PM, as well as less CO2. Driving an Autogas
unregulated – are among the lowest of all emissions are comparatively even lower
car is safe and easy: switching to the fuel involves spending only modest
the automotive fuels commercially available for cold starts, since gasoline needs to be
sums on converting an existing vehicle. The cost of building refuelling
today. Autogas vehicles perform particularly enriched when the engine is cold due to
infrastructure is inexpensive. Vehicle performance is as good, if not better, well when a direct fuel injection system, which its poor vaporisation characteristics at low
than with conventional fuels. LPG is competitively priced – at least if taxed improves the anti-knock behaviour of the fuel temperatures. Since most city car trips involve
appropriately – making it an affordable fuel. And supplies are plentiful, and boosts fuel economy, is deployed. very short distances, urban emissions from
with rising production of natural gas and the enormous scope for reducing Autogas are generally much lower than from
flaring and diverting supplies away from other less valuable uses. The The environmental performance of Autogas gasoline. The environmental advantages
potential economic benefits are not just limited to savings on health is particularly impressive with respect to of Autogas are even bigger with respect to
regulated toxic gases, notably NOx and unregulated emissions, including air toxics
bills due to less pollution; switching to Autogas can also boost jobs in the
PM, or soot. Emissions of NOx – the most such as aldehydes, benzene, toluene and
conversion sector.
important of the regulated gases for air xylene, poly-aromatic hydrocarbons, as well as
quality – from Autogas are much lower than smog-forming components and acidification
AUTOGAS IS CLEAN from gasoline and, especially, diesel (Box 3). potential (through mixes of NOx and sulphur
One of the key environmental advantages dioxide).
The main rationale for Autogas – from a The results of these studies vary to some of Autogas over gasoline and, especially
societal perspective – is its environmental degree, according to the types of vehicles diesel, is the near-absence of PM emissions.
advantages. Because LPG is made up of selected, the quality of the fuel, the types
chemically simple and pure hydrocarbons, it of emissions measured and the conditions
mixes easily with air allowing almost complete under which they were carried out vary: actual
combustion. Consequently, Autogas out- vehicle emissions are highly dependent on
performs gasoline and diesel and most other vehicle technology and driving behaviour.
alternative fuels in the majority of studies But, overall, the picture is clear: switching to
comparing the environmental performance of Autogas can bring major social, economic and
6
Recent studies of the comparative environmental performance of Autogas can be found on the WLPGA website, www.wlpga.org, and www.auto-gas.net.
conventional and alternative fuels that have been environmental benefits.
conducted around the world in recent years.6
22 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 23BOX 3: HOW NO X HARMS HUMAN HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT
NOx is a toxic air pollutant in its own right as NOx harms human health in a variety of direct In some cases, Autogas vehicles may also The molecular structure of pure biopropane
well as the main cause of smog – a leading and indirect ways. NO2 is an irritant gas, which be cleaner than EVs. WTW CO 2 emissions, is identical to that of conventional pure
form of air pollution and a major public at high concentrations causes inflammation of and those of other pollutants, from EVs propane produced from hydrocarbons,
health problem. When nitrogen is released the respiratory system. Ozone causes damage to can be higher than those from Autogas, so can be blended into conventional LPG
during fuel combustion it combines with lung tissue and reduces lung function, especially especially if coal is used to produce the as a “drop-in” fuel or sold in a pure form.
oxygen atoms to create nitric oxide (NO), among children, the elderly and asthmatics. The electricity (Hawkins et al., 2013). Only where The main source of commercial supplies of
which combines again with oxygen to create nitric acid vapour and related particles formed renewables or nuclear power accounts for a bio-LPG at present is a plant in Rotterdam
nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Nitrogen dioxide when NOx reacts with ammonia, moisture and large share of generation do electric vehicles operated by the Finnish company, Neste, with
and nitric oxide are referred to together as other compounds can penetrate deep into deliver major reductions in greenhouse- the output sold to SHV Energy. But a number
oxides of nitrogen, or NOx. NOx reacts with lung tissue, causing severe damage and even gas emissions. In addition, EV factories also of other companies and organisations
VOCs from industrial activities, vehicles and premature death. Inhaling such particles can emit more toxic waste than conventional car around the world are producing bioLPG,
naturally occurring sources in the presence cause or worsen respiratory diseases, such as factories. which could be marketed as such, or
of sunlight to form photochemical smog – a emphysema or bronchitis, and can aggravate conducting research into advanced biofuels
cocktail of ground-level ozone and other existing cardio-vascular disease. In the future, bioLPG used as Autogas production processes, some of which involve
toxic chemical compounds. Smog increases could help reduce CO2 emissions from the production of bio-LPG as a co-product or
during the summer when solar radiation is Smog also contributes to acid rain. NOx emissions road transport even further. BioLPG is LPG the principal output.
highest, which is why this type of smog is also contribute directly and indirectly, through derived from production processes that use
commonly referred to as summer smog. chemical reactions with other compounds in renewable biomass as the feedstock, usually
the atmosphere, to the greenhouse effect, as a co-product. As such, net CO 2 emissions
accentuating climate change. from the production and use of bioLPG are
zero.
Evaporative and fugitive emissions of emits less than diesel, when emissions are
hydrocarbons from motor vehicles and measured on a full fuel-cycle, or “well-to-
refuelling facilities are also much less of a wheels” (WTW), basis and when the LPG is
problem with Autogas than for conventional sourced from natural gas processing plants.
fuels and biofuels since it is used in gaseous Autogas also compares well with other
form in sealed systems. Such emissions are alternative fuels. A recent study suggests
known to make a substantial contribution that well-to-wheel emissions for Autogas
to total VOC emissions. This is a particular are generally quite similar to CNG because
problem with gasoline, due to its volatility. of the much higher emissions associated
Because they have completely sealed fuel with the processing and transportation
systems, Autogas vehicles and pumps have of natural gas. Biofuels, in principle, can
virtually zero evaporative emissions and achieve significantly lower greenhouse-
fugitive emissions are normally limited to the gas emissions on a well-to-wheels basis as
very small release of gas when the fuelling the feedstock is renewable. However, in
Source: WLPGA (https://auto-gas.net/why-autogas/autogas-is-clean/)
coupling is attached and removed. practice, these reductions are often minimal,
as they depend on the type of feedstock
Switching to Autogas can also make and the process used to produce the fuel,
a significant contribution to reducing which is often highly energy-intensive. As a
greenhouse-gas emissions. With respect result, Autogas emissions on a WTW basis
to CO 2, Autogas performs better than are often no higher than those from ethanol
gasoline and, according to some studies, or biodiesel.
24 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 25“Autogas is the only alternative fuel that Autogas is not new. It has been used as a road transport fuel for over 70 years. These years
of operation worldwide have amply demonstrated the integrity and safety of Autogas
dispensers, as well as on-board vehicle tanks. In fact, the safety record of Autogas use in
delivers a wide range of benefits, including practice is at least as good as, if not better than, gasoline or diesel. In practice, Autogas
vehicles meet the same standards for safety as conventionally fuelled ones:
lower emissions, without having to
compromise on vehicle performance and utogas requires a much higher
A
temperature to ignite compared to
S ince Autogas is released as a vapour, it
cannot be ingested like gasoline, diesel
autonomy.”
gasoline and diesel, and has the lowest or alcohol fuels. Autogas is virtually
flammability range of any fossil fuel. odourless and colourless in its natural
state. The unpleasant smell you might
A
utogas is fully contained under
associate with propane is added to help
pressure in solid tanks, which limits
with detection in case of a leak.
the danger of leakage. Being stored in
AUTOGAS IS PRACTICAL – AND Autogas has a higher octane rating than
liquid form, gasoline is prone to leaks or A utogas is a nontoxic, non-carcinogenic
SAFE gasoline, so converted gasoline-powered
vapour escapes. Autogas fuel tanks are and noncorrosive fuel. It poses no
spark-ignition engines tend to run more
20 times more puncture resistant and hazard to groundwater, surface water or
The operational characteristics of smoothly. This reduces engine wear and
can withstand far more pressure than soil.
vehicles that run on Autogas compare maintenance requirements, including less
typical gasoline tanks.
very favourably with other alternative frequent spark plug and oil changes. The
automotive fuels, making it a highly higher octane of Autogas also allows higher nlike gasoline and diesel, if Autogas
U
practical and safe fuel. The performance compression ratios, which can deliver leaks it does not pool or puddle, but
and drivability of vehicles that run on Autogas increased engine-power output and better instead quickly vaporises and dissipates
are as good, if not better, than those that run thermal efficiency, reducing fuel consumption into the air, eliminating the risk of fire.
on petrol, diesel and most other fuels. It is the and emissions. Acceleration and top speed
only alternative fuel that delivers a wide range using the latest generation of Autogas-fuel
of benefits, including lower emissions, without systems are comparable to gasoline or
having to compromise on vehicle performance diesel. Autogas has a lower energy density
and autonomy. than gasoline and diesel, which means that “Fuelling with Autogas is as safe and simple
a larger volume of fuel and a bigger tank are
“Autogas-electric
required to achieve the same overall driving
range, but this has no effect on engine
as filling up with gasoline or diesel. Around
hybrids offer bigger
performance. Autogas is fully compatible
with electricity in hybrid configurations in
the world, millions of vehicles of all types –
from cars to tuk-tuks, school buses to police
the same way as gasoline, including plug-
environmental in hybrids. Autogas-electric hybrids offer
bigger environmental benefits than standard
benefits than
gasoline-electric hybrids. cars – run safely on Autogas.”
standard gasoline-
electric hybrids.”
26 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 27BOX 4: CONVERTING A VEHICLE TO RUN ON AUTOGAS
Autogas fuel systems are a proven and versions of at least one of their models, while
mature technology. Specialist companies have others offer conversions at the time of sale,
developed and market standardised Autogas such that they are covered by their warranty
AUTOGAS IS AFFORDABLE conversion kits, including a parallel fuel system (aftermarket conversions can sometimes
and tank, with specialist garages carrying out invalidate the vehicle warranty). Worldwide,
Most alternative fuels have struggled to Converting vehicles to run on Autogas
the installations. It involves some operational around 20 car brands currently market
compete with conventional ones until is easier and less costly than for most
inconveniences, the most significant of which is around 140 Autogas models (WLPGA, 2018).
now because they are more expensive; other alternative fuels like natural gas
the loss of boot/trunk space to accommodate As Autogas has become more widely available,
Autogas is the exception. The cost of or electricity. Conversion costs for LDVs
the additional fuel tank. But the development some OEM vehicle manufacturers have
converting vehicles and fuel-distribution range from about US$500 in some developing
of new technologies, including doughnut tanks become involved in the development, design
infrastructure is generally lower than for countries to US$4 000 in North America, but are
and lightweight composite tanks, has helped to and manufacture of Autogas systems. They
other non-blended alternative fuels. And the little more than US$1 500 in most cases (WLPGA/
alleviate this problem for Original Equipment now produce and market dedicated Autogas
fuel itself is highly affordable: on an energy- Liquid Gas Europe, 2018). The premium for a
Manufacturer (OEM) vehicles, i.e. with factory- vehicles with under-floor fuel tanks.
content basis, the cost of bulk LPG delivered dual-fuelled OEM vehicle also varies considerably:
fitted dual-fuel systems, which represent the
to service stations is usually lower than that of it used to be at least $1 000 in most countries
majority of new Autogas vehicles. For mainly Converting a heavy-duty diesel engine in
gasoline or diesel, reflecting price differentials and sometimes a lot more. But the premium has
technical reasons, most LDV conversions involve an existing vehicle can be technically more
on international markets, as well as natural fallen sharply in some countries in the last few
gasoline-powered spark-ignition engines, complex and expensive than converting a
gas and biofuels. In volume terms, LPG is years, as some carmakers have cut the prices
which are particularly well-suited to run on heavy-duty gasoline engine, but there are
traded at an average discount of around of their Autogas models to attract customers.
Autogas. However, it is also easy and relatively examples of Autogas being blended with
US$30 per barrel to gasoline and diesel in In some cases, OEMs propose Autogas
inexpensive to convert a light duty diesel engine the diesel fuel without changing the cylinder
Europe, US$35/barrel on the US Gulf Coast versions at the same price as gasoline versions
to Autogas through the replacement of the head. In recent years a number of heavy-
and close to US$30/barrel in Singapore in (e.g. France and the Netherlands). In almost all
cylinder head for a spark ignition one. duty Autogas spark-ignition engines (mostly
2017 (Figure 6). Rising demand for Autogas is countries, converting a gasoline car to Autogas
adaptations of their diesel counterparts) have
not expected to raise the cost of LPG on the – or opting for a dual-fuelled OEM Autogas
Sales of OEM Autogas vehicles, incorporating been commercialised by several of the larger
international spot market relative to gasoline vehicle – costs less than the price premium for
conversion kits at the point of manufacture, engine manufacturers. These engines are used
in the coming years given the abundance a diesel car. Most conversions are for LDVs,
have been growing in many established mainly in buses and mid-sized trucks, notably
of supplies – even if demand for Autogas though HDV conversions are becoming more
markets in recent years. Most of the leading in the United States, Korea and China.
continues to rise (see below). commonplace (Box 4).
car manufacturers have introduced Autogas
Figure 6: Average spot oil product price differentials with crude oil in selected locations, 2017
Source: WLPGA/Liquid Gas Europe (2018).
Among the various alternative fuels The cost of installing refuelling infrastructure
available today, CNG is probably the main and converting LDVs is significantly lower
alternative to Autogas on affordability for Autogas, in large part because of the
grounds.7 Both fuels have pros and cons, but extra cost of CNG tanks (which need to
Autogas is generally more cost-competitive be bigger and stronger because of their
for LDVs (if both fuels are taxed equally on an higher operating pressures). CNG refuelling
energy-content basis), whereas CNG/LNG in stations are also much noisier than Autogas
many cases can be a more viable option for stations, making them undesirable in densely
heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) (Table 2). populated areas.
Notes: USD/bbl = United States dollars per barrel. Based on dated Brent crude for North-West Europe, the average of
Sour and Light Louisiana Sweet crude for the US Gulf Coast and Dubai crude for Singapore. Source: IEA (2018b).
7
The main exception is biofuels in places where production costs are particularly low, such as ethanol in Brazil, thanks to a favourable climate and fertile soil.
28 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 29Table 2: Competitiveness of Autogas against compressed natural gas (CNG)
Autogas CNG “Converting a gasoline vehicle to run on
Autogas – or opting for a dual-fuelled OEM
End-user price of fuel Driven by bulk cost of delivered
Driven by the international LPG natural gas to major demand
price (which follows other oil centres (low now in United
Autogas vehicle – costs less than the price
prices) but is generally lower States, but high in importing
than those of gasoline and diesel regions where the price is linked
to that of oil)
Cost of refuelling
infrastructure
Generally higher than for
conventional fuels and Autogas
premium for a diesel car and usually much
Comparable to conventional
as higher compression is
less than switching to most other alternative
fuels
needed; home refuelling costs
are typically in excess of $10 000
Cost of vehicle conversion
(LDV)
Generally much more
expensive, partly because a
fuels like natural gas or electricity.”
Ranges from around $400 to
bigger tank is needed to deliver
$4 000 depending on the type
the same driving range (in the
of car, type of conversion and
United States, the cost ranges
local market conditions
from $12 000 to $18 000 due to
licensing requirements)
AUTOGAS IS AVAILABLE – AND A flexibility of modern refining processes offers
Ease of refuelling Refuelling is rather quick and
Refuelling usually takes longer; PROVEN FUEL considerable potential for expanding supply to
the fuel is generally widely
the fuel is not always available meet demand from the transport sector. And
available as it is easy to
in all areas as it must be piped field and refinery supplies will also increase as
transport by road Autogas is a fuel of tomorrow, as well as
a proven fuel of today. It is already the wasteful flaring and venting practices, which
Source: WLPGA/Liquid Gas Europe (2018). most widely used unblended alternative to are still common in many parts of the world,
the conventional oil-based transport fuels, are eradicated. Indeed, a widespread concern
gasoline and diesel, in terms of the size of in the LPG sector is that supply will outpace
The costs incurred in establishing or Despite the favourable environmental its fleet. It is the leading alternative fuel for demand in the coming years, driving down
expanding an Autogas distribution network attributes of Autogas compared with passenger cars and vans. Supplies of LPG prices. In the central scenario of the IEA’s
are also relatively low. These costs essentially other alternative fuels, the rate of are ample and growing fast, and can easily latest World Energy Outlook, LPG supply is
relate to investments in service station storage switching to Autogas and overall meet continuing strong growth in demand projected to grow by 2 mb/d, or around 20%,
and dispensing facilities. The plants and consumption is highly dependent on the for Autogas in the years to come – even if between 2016 and 2040, reaching over 12
equipment that already exist to handle the financial benefits to end users. A publicly- demand for other energy uses of LPG grows mb/d (IEA, 2017b).
importation, production, storage and bulk owned bus company may take account of too. With its diverse sources of supply, flexible
distribution of LPG for traditional uses are the the local environmental benefits as well as supply chain and increasing production levels, In addition, there is considerable scope for
same as for Autogas, although some additional relative costs of different fuel options in increased reliance on LPG can help enhance diverting supplies of LPG from other, less
investment may be needed to cope with higher deciding whether to switch to Autogas. But the security of supply. valuable end uses. In particular, LPG can easily
throughput. Since Autogas generally makes use for most private fleet operators, truckers and be replaced in low-value petrochemical uses by
of the existing service station infrastructure for individual motorists, the sole consideration is The supply of LPG is set to grow strongly other feedstocks such as naphtha, ethane and
distribution of conventional fuels, additional costs cost. As a result, private vehicle owners must in the coming years on the back of rising distillate. Availability of these oil products, which
for Autogas dispensing are low relative to some be given an adequate financial incentive to production of natural gas and associated are currently used mainly for making gasoline
other alternative fuels. For example, the cost of switch to Autogas by converting their existing liquids extraction – already the primary and diesel, will inevitably rise as demand for
installing a standard tank, pump and metering gasoline car or opting for Autogas when source of LPG worldwide. In addition to those two fuels in the transport sector drops
equipment for Autogas alongside existing buying a new car: few people or companies proven reserves in oil and gas fields, the with switching to alternative fuels.
gasoline and diesel facilities is typically around are prepared to make a financial sacrifice
a third that of installing dispensing facilities for individually to improve the environment for
CNG with the same capacity. This is because of the common good. In practice, this means
the added cost of dedicated supply pipelines, that the pump price in per-litre terms has
high-pressure compression, storage cylinders to be well below that of both gasoline and
and special dispensers for CNG. In addition, diesel – typically less than half. That requires
the filling rate for CNG is much lower than for the government to tax Autogas less.
Autogas.
30 A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS A GLOBAL ROADMAP FOR AUTOGAS 31You can also read
