AFRAA AIR TRANSPORT REPORT 2020
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AFRAA AIR TRANSPORT REPORT 2020 Release date: May 2021
TABLE OF CONTENTS Global airline industry performance 3 African Airline industry performance 2020 4 Financial performance 4 Passenger traffic growth 4 Passenger distribution 5 African airlines ranking by traffic 8 Routes ranking by traffic 8 Airport ranking by passengers traffic 10 Airport ranking by freight traffic 10 Airport charges 11 Airport connectivity index 12 African countries connectivity and openness 13 Annex: glossary 15
GLOBAL AIRLINE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The Covid 19 pandemic hit the air transport sector hard in 2020. All regions have
experienced a dras c drop in traffic due to border closures and travel restric ons. Both
capacity and traffic dropped globally: ASKs and RPKs declined by 55% and 65% respec vely.
From February 2020, air traffic recorded a drop of 31% on the Asian market and 3% on the
North American market. In March the traffic is down 45% and more than 95% in April. Traffic
resumed significantly from July ll October, but the recovery was hampered by the second
wave of infec on during the fourth quarter of the year. Few months a er the traffic restart,
some countries imposed new travel bans and borders closing, impac ng interna onal
markets and causing an 11% drop in the traffic.
Global industry ASK and RPK growth
% Global ASK growth % Global RPK growth
0%
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Feb-20
Nov-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
May-20
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
Source: AFRAA /OAG
Air cargo was also affected by the Covid situa on. The lockdowns and travel ban affected
belly cargo capacity, leading to an overall yearly drop of 23%, according to IATA. Cargo traffic
also declined, affected by the disrup ons in manufacturing and trade worldwide. However,
the recovery from Q3 led to a 10.6% year-on-year traffic drop, but an improved Cargo load
factor since capacity decrease was greater than traffic decline.
3AFRICAN AIRLINES PERFORMANCE
Africa airlines opera ons were severely impacted by the Covid19 crisis. If the first cases on the
con nent appeared at the end of February in the northern region, the restric ve measures
started to be applied in March. The impact was dras c for the traffic.
Financial performance
The Covid19 crisis had a devasta ng impact on airlines finance around the world. For African
airlines, whose financial situa on was already precarious, the impact was even greater. For the
year 2020, the Passenger revenue loss is es mated at USD 10.21 billion.
African Airlines' Passenger Revenue Loss
Q2 2021
Q1 2020
Q2 2020
Q3 2020
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
0
Billion USD
-1 -0.61
-2 -1.35
-1.85
-3 -2.72 -2.60 -2.55
-4 -3.41 -3.47
Source: AFRAA /OAG
Quarter 2 and 3 was the most affected, before a smooth recovery on the 4th quarter.According to
our forecasts, African airlines will con nue to lose money in 2021, even if the amount will reduce.
We es mate the overall Passenger revenue losses for 2021 at USD 8.35 billion.
Passenger Traffic Evolution
Scheduled passengers carried by African airlines
100 91.9 95.6
88.5
Million passengers
90 83.9
76.6 79.5
80 73.8
70 61 63
53.2 56
60
50
40 34.7
30
20
10
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
m.)
(es
Source: AFRAA / IATA Watts
The number of scheduled Passengers carried by African Airlines is es mated to drop from 95
million in 2019 to 34.7 million in 2020, represen ng a year-on-year decline of 63.7%.
4African airlines ASK and RPK growth
% ASK growth % RPK growth
0%
Jan-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Feb-20
Nov-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
May-20
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
Source: AFRAA /OAG
African airlines’ Asks and RPKs followed the same trend as the global industry. From the end of
March, the majority of carriers grounded their aircra , causing a dras c ASK and RPK drop of 85%
and 94% respec vely in April. The reduc on in traffic con nued un l June, before reversing with
the gradual opening of borders.
Passenger Traffic Distribution
African airlines passenger
The traffic repar on shows that African airlines distribution 2020
globally carried more domes c traffic in 2020, around
43% of the total traffic compared to. The leading Intra Africa
carriers in terms of Domes c traffic are airlines like 19%
Safair, Ethiopian Airlines, Mango airlines, and Air Domes c
43%
Algerie. Those 5 airlines carried 4.8 million passengers
on domes c routes during the year. Interna onal Intercon nental
traffic represented 57%, breaking down into 19% of 38%
Intra-African and 38% of intercon nental passengers.
Source: AFRAA /OAG
African airlines international passenger destinations per quarter in 2020
Q4 3.7 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.2
Domes c
Q3 2.3 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1
Intra-africa
Europe
Q2 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.3
Middle East
Q1 7.6 3.5 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.6
0 5 10 15 Million PAX 20
Source: AFRAA /OAG
At the con nental level, Europe is the first interna onal des na on of African airlines,
represen ng 21% and even exceeding Intra African traffic (19%), domes c excluded. Traffic to
Middle-East tended to increase, while traffic to Asia reduced due to Covid.
5Regional Insights
Northern Africa is the leading region in terms of passengers, represen ng 36.6% of the total
con nental traffic. In this region, the major part of this traffic is directed outside the con nent, in
par cular to Europe: 45% before Covid. This can be explained by the tourism that is developed in
the region and a racts Europeans. Middle-East is also a preferred des na on from Northern
Africa (22% of the traffic in 2019) due to the strong cultural and economic rela onship between
the Maghreb and Middle-East. The Covid19 outbreak caused a year-on-year drop of 61% of the
regional traffic. The traffic toward Europe declined by 5%, in favor of Middle-East (+2.6%) and
intra-African (+2.1%). The part of the domes c market is around 20%, which is far from the
con nental average that is 43%.
Traffic repartition - Northern Africa
0.5% 3.1% 3.2%
100% 2.5% 0.2%
0.8% 0.3%
1.2% America
80% 24.2% 29.3% 24.9% 26.2%
Asia
60% Middle East
40.6% 34.5% 44.9% 38.3%
40% Europe
10.1% 17.6% 11.5% Intra-africa
20% 11.3%
21.5% 17.3% 15.6% 20.5% Domes c
0%
Source: AFRAA /OAG
Eastern Africa is the second region in terms of passenger traffic volumes with a share of 22.2%.
Domes c and Intra-African traffic are dominant in this region, both represen ng 70% of the
traffic in 2020. Europe is the major des na on outside the con nent followed by Asia (12% and
7% respec vely). A er the beginning of the Covid crisis, the share of the domes c market rose by
20%. On the other hand, Intra-African traffic reduced by 10%. Asia also lost some shares, from 8%
to 2% from quarter two.
Traffic repartition - Eastern Africa
100% 2.6% 2.2% 1.8%
2.9% 2.2%
8.0% 2.2% 6.1% 2.7% 8.4%
7.2% 3.3% 10.4%
12.4% 9.8%
80%
13.2% 18.8% 17.6% 18.5% America
60% Asia
28.2%
Middle East
40%
62.7% Europe
59.0% 59.3%
20% 40.6%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2
Source: AFRAA /OAG
6In Southern Africa, the traffic drop related to Covid reached 63.6% compared to 2019. In this
region represen ng 21% of the con nental traffic, the domes c market is clearly dominant: from
66% before the Covid, the part of domes c traffic increased up to 77% in the last quarter of 2020.
On the other end, intra-African traffic reduced, as well as traffic outside the con nent.
Traffic repartition - Southern Africa
2.6%
100% 2.7% 2.1%
3.3% 5.6% 3.2%
6.5%
22.9% 15.1% 17.1%
80% 19.7%
America
60%
Asia
Middle East
40% 73.1% 75.5% 76.7% Europe
67.0% Intra-africa
20% Domes c
0%
Source: AFRAA /OAG
Central and Western African regions both represented 19.7% of the traffic in Africa. Domes c
traffic represented around 40% in 2019, Intra-African following with 32%. In 2020, with the
Covid situa on, the share of domes c increased, par cularly in the second quarter with 68% with
the boarders closing. The share of Europe, the principal des na on outside Africa reduced from
12% in 2019 to 10% in 2020. The traffic to Asia also declined from 5.8% to 2.4%.
Traffic repartition - Central and Western Africa
100% 3.1% 1.2% 1.4% 2.1%
4.5% 7.2% 3.6% 7.0%
5.7% 11.5% 8.1%
80% 11.8% 22.1%
30.6% 32.0% America
60% 25.8%
Asia
Middle East
40% Europe
68.7% Intra-africa
49.0% 51.7% 49.4% Domes c
20%
0%
Source: AFRAA /OAG
7African Airlines Ranking By Traffic (AFRAA Estimations)
African airlines ranking by traffic (AFRAA estimations)
Ethiopian Airlines
EgyptAir
Royal Air Maroc
Safair Domes c
Kenya Airways
Intra-africa
Air Algerie
Air Arabia Maroc Intercon nental
Tunisair
Mango Airlines
Comair
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Million PAX
Source: AFRAA /OAG
Routes Ranking By Traffic (AFRAA Estimations)
Top 10 domestic routes by passengers carried (AFRAA estimations)
Domestic routes ranking
Kumasi - Accra
East London - Johanesburg
Lagos - Port Harcourt
Johanesburg - George
Johanesburg - Port Elisabeth
Nairobi - Mombasa
Cape town - Durban
Abuja - Lagos
Durban - Johanesburg
Johanesburg - Cape town
0 0.5 1 1.5 Millions 2
Source: AFRAA /OAG
6 of the 10 busiest domes c routes in Africa are within South Africa showing the strength of this
market. Western Africa is represented with 3 routes: Abuja – Lagos, Lagos – Port Harcourt, and
Kumasi - Accra.
8Top 10 Intra - African routes by passengers carried (AFRAA estimations)
Intra-African routes ranking
Tunis - Casablanca
Gaborone - Johanesburg
Johanesburg - Bulawayo
Accra - Lagos
Mi ga - Niamey
Saint Denis - Mauri us
Entebbe - Nairobi
Khartoum - Cairo
Harare - Johanesburg
Mi ga - Tunis
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Thousands
Source: AFRAA /OAG
Almost all the regions are represented in this top 10: Southern Africa with 5 routes, 1 route in
Eastern Africa, 2 in Northern Africa, and 2 in Western Africa.
Top 10 Intercontinental routes by passengers carried (AFRAA estimations)
Intercontinental routes ranking
Algiers - Paris
Cairo - Medina
Cairo - Charjah
Khartoum - Jeddah
Tunis - Paris
Cairo - Kuwait
Saint Denis - Paris
Cairo - Dubai
Riyahd - Cairo
Jeddah - Cairo
Total
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Thousands
Source: AFRAA /OAG
This top 10 shows the strength of traffic between North Africa and Middle East, par cularly from
Cairo. Egyptair is the leading carrier on these routes.
9Airport Ranking By Passengers
African airports ranking by passengers
2
Quarter 1 Quarter 2
Quarter 3 Quarter 4
1.5
Million PAX
1
0.5
0
(es ma ons)
Addis Ababa
Durban
Casablanca
Johanesburg
Lagos
Nairobi
Cairo
Marrakech
Tunis
Cape-Town
Source: AFRAA / ACI AFRICA
Johannesburg and Cairo are the busiest airports in Africa. Addis Ababa and Nairobi are also part of the
top ranking. The only WCAF airport in this top 10 is Lagos. (Addis Ababa data are es ma ons). A er the
severe drop in traffic on Quarter 2, Cairo, Casablanca, Addis, and Nairobi airports saw a rise in traffic.
South African airports had to wait for the last quarter of the year to have a no ceable improvement.
Lagos and Marrakech on the other hand saw a decrease in traffic during the third quarter.
Airport Ranking by Freight Traffic
African airports ranking by freight
100
Quarter 1 Quarter 2
80 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
Thousand tons
60
40
20
0
(es ma ons)
Lagos
Abidjan
Addis Ababa
Cairo
Casablanca
Nairobi
Dakar
Algiers
Accra
Johanesburg
Source: AFRAA / ACI AFRICA
Nairobi Jomo Kenya a airport handled more than 330 thousand tons of freight during the year 2020.
Cairo followed with 280 thousand tons. Four West Africa are part of the top 10, namely Lagos, Accra,
Dakar, and Abidjan. For the majority of these airports, freight traffic strongly rebounded a er the drop
of Quarter 2. Nairobi even performed in Quarter 4 compared to Quarter 1. (Addis Ababa data are
es ma ons)
10AIRPORT CHARGES
Methodology:
A compara ve study based on a single aircra type applies to all airports of more than 500
thousand passengers yearly.
The type of aircra chosen is the B737, the most popular aircra type in the region.
Following the applied criteria:
Aircraft Type B737
MTOW 70.08 Metric
Flight Type International
Origin & Destination 100
Total Departing Pax 100
Parking Time 2 Hour
Boarding bridge time 1 Hour
Arrival Time 12:00
Cargo 0 Kilograms
African airports ranking by charge index
Mahe Island
Algiers
Mauri us
Nairobi
Gaborone
Antananarivo
Lilongwe
Entebbe
Maputo
Windhoek
Addis Ababa
Dar Es Salaam
Saint Denis
Cairo
Kigali
Johannesburg
Abidjan
Libreville
Harare
Accra
Lagos
Brazzaville
Dakar
Ouagadougou
Cotonou
Kinshasa
Khartoum
Douala
Ilha Do Sal
Bamako
Malabo
Tunis
Conakry
Casablanca
Luanda
Lusaka
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Source: AFRAA / IATA ACIC
Index
Lusaka has the highest level of charges while Mahe Island has the lowest among the selected
airports. Some of the busiest airports in Africa like Johannesburg, Addis, Algiers are among the
least expensive. This indicates that lowering the airport charges can have a posi ve effect on
traffic.
11INTRA-AFRICAN CONNECTIVITY
Methodology:
We calculate the total number of possible Intra-African connec ons between inbound and
outbound flights on 20 important African hubs in 2020.
The rules selected for the computa on are as follows:
Ÿ Single connec ons only to/from the chosen airports,
Ÿ Minimum Connec on Time from OAG table,
Ÿ Maximum Connec on Window of 6 hours
The Covid19 situa on drama cally affected connec vity within Africa with a sharp drop of 97%
during the second quarter. Un l the end of 2020, the level of intra-African connec vity was 90%
under the level of quarter 1.
Intra-African connectivity growth by quarter
Q1 (base) Q2 Q3 Q4
0
-0.5
-1
-97% -95% -90%
-1.5
Source: AFRAA / OAG
Intra-African connectivity index 2020
Airport Index 2020
Johannesburg 12527
Addis Ababa 9744
Nairobi 4548
Algiers 1829
Cairo 1163
Zanzibar 1162
Lome 744
Abuja 648
Casablanca 632
Abidjan 493
Kigali 409
Accra 364
Antananarivo 195
Khartoum 184
Luanda 178
Mauri us 131
Dakar 128
Libreville 125
Entebbe 114
Ouagadougou 107
Lilongwe 100
Source: AFRAA / OAG
Johannesburg remains the most connected airport, even if severely affected by the lockdown
measures. Mauri us completely ceased opera ons during Quarters 2 and 3, bringing
connec vity level to zero. Airports like Madagascar, Lome, and Khartoum saw a quick
improvement from the beginning of Quarter 3, benefi ng from less strict restric ons.
12AFRICAN COUNTRIES CONNECTIVITY AND OPENNESS
In 2020, the regional traffic represented only 19% of African carriers' opera ons. Furthermore,
the Covid19 situa on depleted the Intra African connec vity that was already low. It is important
to facilitate travels within Africa by removing the barriers that prevent travels within the
con nent.
African airports ranking by passengers
Top 10 best and worst connected countries in Africa
Ethiopia
Kenya
Egypt
South Africa
Morocco
Cote D'Ivoire
Ghana
Nigeria
Cameroon
Togo
Seychelles
South Sudan
Guinea-Bissau
Botswana
Burundi
Djibou
Libya
Lesotho
Eritrea
Eswa ni
Source: AFRAA / AfDB
Among the 54 countries in the African con nent, 13 have direct flights to more than 20 African
countries. Ethiopia and Kenya lead with 30 direct flights and more to other countries within Africa.
However, the intra-African connec vity remains poor. African airlines should take the
opportunity to develop their Intra-African Network, especially in this period where the EU has
limited travels to Europe.
Connectivity between African regions
Central Africa Eastern Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa
Central Africa 64% 16% 34% 15% 33%
Eastern Africa 45% 16% 21% 7%
Northern Africa 69% 4% 41%
Southern Africa 57% 3%
Western Africa 65%
Source: AFRAA / AfDB
The table above represents the percentage of direct connec ons exis ng between all the
countries within a region or toward another African region in rela on to the total number of
possible connec ons. While intra-connec vity is rela vely high within Northern Africa (more
than 69%), we can see that connec vity across regions remains poor. The highest rate is between
Northern and western Africa with only 41%. Southern Africa is the less connected with other
regions, par cularly with the western (only 3%). Visa Openness within Africa 2020.
13Visa Openness within Africa 2020
No Visa Visa on arrival Visa required
Seychelles 53 0
Benin 53 0
Gambia 53 0
Ghana 24 28 1
Senegal 22 31 0
Mauri us 27 21 5
Rwanda 18 35 0
Uganda 18 34 1
Kenya 18 33 2
Nigeria 17 35 1
Cape Verde 16 36 1
Guinea-Bissau 13 40 0
Togo 14 38 1
Mozambique 9 44 0
Mauritania 8 45 0
Tanzania 16 25 12
Ethiopia 2 51 1
Somalia 0 53 0
Comoros 0 53 0
Madagascar 0 52 1
Djibou 0 52 1
Zimbabwe 17 10 26
Guinea 22 0 31
Cote d'Ivoire 22 0 31
Burkina Faso 16 11 26
Sierra Leone 13 17 23
Tunisia 21 0 32
Mali 20 2 31
Malawi 15 11 27
Zambia 14 11 28
Niger 18 0 35
Botswana 17 0 36
Eswa ni 17 0 36
South Africa 17 0 36
Lesotho 16 0 37
Chad 14 1 38
Liberia 14 0 39
Central Africa 14 0 39
Angola 10 7 36
Namibia 13 0 40
Gabon 9 0 44
Congo 5 8 40
Sao Tome and Principe 8 0 45
Cameroon 7 0 46
Morocco 6 0 47
Burundi 6 0 47
Algeria 6 0 47
Congo Democra c 4 3 46
South Sudan 0 5 48
Egypt 0 4 49
Eritrea 1 2 50
Sudan 02 51
Libya 10 52
Equatorial Guinea 10 52
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Source: AFRAA / AfDB
In terms of Visa openness within, more and more countries are opening their borders to other
African countries. In 2010, The Gambia joined Seychelles and Benin in the group of totally Visa-
free countries. Visa on arrival is adopted by 32 countries across Africa. Unfortunately, in 2020
46% of Africans s ll need a visa to travel to another African country compared to 50% in 2019,
which is a small improvement.
14ANNEX: GLOSSARY
ACIC: Aviation Charges Intelligence Center
AFDB: African Development Bank
AFRAA: African Airlines Association
ICAO: International Civil Aviation Organization
IATA: International Air Transport Association
RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometers
YoY: Year on Year
15CONTACTS African Airlines Association P.O. Box 20116 00200 GPO Nairobi, Kenya GSM: +254 20 2320144 | +254 20 23 20148 Cell: +254 (0)722 20978 | +254 (0)735 337669 Website: www.afraa.org
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