Analysts' Ideas of the Week - All Eyes on Inflation Data This Week www.researchfrc.com - Baystreet.ca
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Analysts' Ideas of the Week
All Eyes on Inflation Data This Week
August 9, 2021
www.researchfrc.com
Page 2
Reddit Discussed Stocks
Last week’s pick, Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA), went from US$346.61 on
Monday, to a high of US$443.99 on Thursday (up 28%). The Electric Vehicle (EVs)
sector remains the most actively discussed among retail investors, followed by cryptos,
betting, and cannabis. This week, we are observing strong retail sentiment around
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR). Key parameters used may include – a) total
number of mentions, b) percentage change in the number of mentions, c) stock
sentiment, and d) market capitalization.
Aug 9, 2021
Company Ticker Sector
Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR Software
Source: FRC
Historic Weekly Returns (Mar 1, 2021 – Present)
19 out of our 23 picks have generated positive returns
Average return = 28.33%
*Returns were calculated based on the assumption that picks were sold at their peak the
following week.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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Page 3
FRC Top Picks
The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks,
including two cannabis, two technology, and one EV metals junior. The top performer,
Halo Collective (NEO: HALO), was up 25%. HALO received EU-GACP certification,
allowing it to export medicinal cannabis to international markets. Our reports on HALO
can be viewed here.
Top Five Performers Last Week
Source: FRC
Companies in our Top Picks list were up 0.5% last week vs 0.0% for the
benchmark (TSXV).
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Performance by Sector
Source: FRC
Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.
Weekly Mining Commentary
Strong jobs data from the U.S. drove up the US$, treasury yields, and global equity
indices last week.
Source: FRC / Various
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The stronger US$ negatively impacted prices of all the mainstream metals.
Source: FRC / Various
Inventory levels remain volatile both on the LME and the SHFE (Shanghai).
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Valuations of gold producers were down 4%; base metal producers were down
3%.
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Six (five last week) out of the 15 hardest hit nations (including the U.S., Turkey, Italy,
Iran, Germany, and Mexico) experienced higher daily new COVID-19 cases last week.
Four (five last week) experienced WoW increases in deaths. We note that deaths to
daily new cases are approximately 0.5% in highly vaccinated countries, down
from the 1.5%-2.0% highs earlier this year.
Globally, 30.0% have received at least one dose vs 28.6% at the same time last
week. 72.0% of Canadians have received at lease one dose (previously 71.8%). 61.8%
of Canadians are fully vaccinated (previously 59.5%) vs 58.1% in the U.K. (56.7%), and
49.8% in the U.S. (49.3%).
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As mentioned last week, vaccine hesitancy is high (20%-30%) in developed economies,
and remains the number one bottleneck for a full economic recovery. This week, the
U.S. is expected to release inflation (CPI and PPI) data. Higher than expected
inflation will be positive for both gold and silver. As shown in the chart below, inflation is
already at a 10-year high. Although the Fed is likely to start tapering bond purchases in
October, an interest rate hike this year is highly unlikely.
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We are maintaining our price forecasts.
The following companies reported earnings. We will be publishing updates shortly.
Source: FRC
In the following section, we review companies that announced key developments in the
past week.
Mining / Exploration
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Gran Colombia TSX: GCM $4.52 $9.46
Gold Corp
PR Title FRC Opinion
Closing of offering of US$300M / 6.875% Positive – Funds will be used to develop
senior unsecured notes the recently acquired Toroparu gold/copper
project in Guyana; no equity financings (or
potential share dilution) expected in the
near-term. We are expecting GCM to
announce strong Q2 results later this week.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Inca One Gold TSXV: INCA $0.37 $1.10
Corp
PR Title FRC Opinion
Secures US$9.0M non-dilutive gold pre- Positive – This is a very significant
payment facility development as access to capital is the
company’s only bottleneck to ramp up
production. We are expecting a weak Q4
(quarter ended April), followed by a record
Q1 (ended July).
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Doubleview TSXV:DBG $0.62 N/A
Gold Corp.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Drills the longest mineralization at Lisle Positive – Highly encouraging results - one
deposit hole returned 908 m of 0.41 gpt AuEq
(0.31% CuEq) including visible gold
occurrence, one extended the Lisle
mineralized zone 165 m to the east, and
one resulted in the discovery of a new zone,
1.5 km west of Lisle.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Tudor Gold TSXV: TUD $2.40 $5.29
Corp.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Intersects 130.5 m of 2.389 g/t gold eq Positive – Very promising results, with
within 474.0 m of 1.039 g/t, and 168.0 m high-grades over long intervals. TUD is
of 1.391 g/t within 801.0 m of 0.704 g/t at targeting to complete an updated resource
the Goldstorm Deposit, Treaty Creek, estimate in early 2022.
Northwest B.C.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Renforth CSE: RFR $0.08 $0.12
Resources Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Completes final Parbec twin hole with Positive – Positive for the upcoming
11.75 m of 3.3 g/t gold updated resource estimate. Awaiting results
from several completed holes.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Cora Gold AIM: CORA £0.13 £0.18
Limited
PR Title FRC Opinion
49m @ 15.55g/t Au and 32m @ 7.83g/t Positive - Continues to return high grade
Au in first Selin P2 drill results values and show resource expansion
potential.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Enertopia OTCQB: US$0.063 US$0.16
Corporation ENRT
PR Title FRC Opinion
Answers your provisional patent Positive - Although it is too early to
questions comment on the prospects of ENRT’s
technologies, we note that the target
markets for its applications are huge. ENRT
will not only be able to license its technology
to miners, but also to PV panel
manufacturers and end-users.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Sirios Resources TSXV: SOI $0.10 $0.41
Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Observes visible gold in recent drilling on Positive – 10 instances of visible gold in
the Cheechoo gold project, Quebec five of nine holes are very encouraging
results. Planning an updated resource
estimate next year.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Golden Arrow TSXV: GRG $0.16 $NA
Resources
Corporation
PR Title FRC Opinion
Identifies multiple target horizons and Positive – Pleased to see the company
announces first drill program at Rosales advancing the project to drilling. Although
copper project, Chile initial results have been good, it is still too
early to comment on Rosales’ potential.
GRG has $16M in working capital, but
MCAP is $19M, implying that the market is
assigning a valuation of just $3M on its
projects.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Estimate:
Name: Symbol Price:
Hannan Mentals TSXV: HAN $0.27 $0.57
Ltd.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Soil sampling continues to extend scale Positive – Results indicate continuity of
and define continuity of copper-silver mineralization over 24 km; the project area
mineralization at Tabalosos East, Peru remains largely untested. Planning soil
sampling, trenching, and mapping prior to
drilling.
Financials, Technology, Energy, and Special Situations
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Voyager Digital CSE: VYGR $21.93 $32.08
Ltd.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Partners with Usio to enable merchants Positive – We are pleased to see the
and ISVs to accept cryptocurrency as a company strengthening its Coinify offering.
form of payment In last week’s AIW, we had noted that
Coinify’s acquisition is an excellent addition
to VYGR’s brokerage business.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
TAAT Global CSE: TAAT $3.79 $5.37
Alternatives Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
After July trade shows, TAAT™ closed 68 Positive – We are pleased to see the
new initial purchase orders; Brings total company continue to generate demand.
U.S. store count to approx. 500 Store count is up 25% since our last note on
August 3, 2021. Our recent webinar on
TAAT can be viewed here.
Cannabis
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Pure Extracts CSE: PULL $0.39 $0.90
Technologies
Corp.
PR Titles FRC Opinion
Ships initial edible cannabis gummies Positive – Pleased to see the company
order to B.C. generate demand for its inhouse brands.
Our revenue projections do not include
sales from inhouse brands, but we will
revise our projections when more details
about pricing/sales is available.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Halo Collective NEO: HALO $0.06 $0.15
Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Bophelo Bioscience & Wellness achieves Positive – This is a major milestone, as it
EU GACP certification allows Bophelo to export medicinal
cannabis to the EU, and international
markets. Management is trying to secure
distributors.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Ayurcann CSE: AYUR $0.235 $0.71
Holdings Corp.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Launches online cannabis marketplace Positive – Diversified revenue stream by
offering licensed producers the ability to sell
their products on AYUR’s platform.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Fiore Cannabis CSE: FIOR $0.09 $0.28
Ltd.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Completes sale of Celista, B.C. asset to Positive – Pleased to see this sale
put major focus on core U.S. markets completed. It allows Fiore to focus on its
core business, while strengthening its
balance sheet.
Weekly Cannabis Commentary
Cannabis Industry Performance
August 9, 2021
U.S. Companies YTD 1-Week 1-Year
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. -7% -3% 32%
Trulieve Cannabis Corp. 0% 1% 34%
Green Thumb Industries Inc. 32% 7% 105%
Cresco Labs Inc. 8% 3% 55%
Canadian Companies YTD 1-Week 1-Year
Aurora Cannabis Inc. -23% 5% -34%
Canopy Growth Corp. -29% 3% 5%
Cronos Group Inc. -6% -1% 21%
Tilray Inc. -5% 2% -6%
HEXO Corp. -5% 0% 20%
Organigram Holdings Inc. 85% 6% 79%
Canadian Average 3% 3% 14%
U.S. Average 8% 2% 56%
Indices
Canadian YTD 1-Week 1-Year
HMMJ 15% 1% 37%
MCAN 14% 2% 39%
XCAN 1% -1% 14%
U.S. YTD 1-Week 1-Year
MSOS -1% 3% 57%
Source: FRC
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Last week, U.S. cannabis stocks outperformed primarily due to the following positive
news.
➢ Illinois reported a 110% YoY increase in sales in June, while also issuing 70 new
recreational cannabis business licenses.
➢ Arizona saw their cannabis sales increase 29% YoY in June.
➢ California sales increased 13.8% YoY in June
Valuation
As of August 9, 2021, the Canadian big four LPs were trading at a 79% premium (down
from 87% in the previous week) over their U.S. peers.
August 3, 2021 August 9, 2021
Canadian Companies Ticker TEV/Revenue TEV/EBITDA TEV/Revenue TEV/EBITDA
Aurora Cannabis Inc. TSX: ACB 6.5 NM 6.8 NM
Canopy Growth Corp. TSX: WEED 16.2 NM 16.2 NM
Cronos Group Inc. TSX: CRON 29.7 NM 28.8 NM
Tilray Inc. NASDAQ: TLRY 13.7 NM 13.5 NM
HEXO Corp. NYSE: HEXO 6.6 NM 6.5 NM
Organigram Holdings Inc. TSX: OGI 10.5 NM 11 NM
AVERAGE 13.9 NM 13.8 NM
MEDIAN 16.2 NM 16.2 NM
MINIMUM 5.0 NM 5.0 NM
MAXIMUM 29.7 NM 28.8 NM
U.S. Companies Ticker TEV/Revenue TEV/EBITDA TEV/Revenue TEV/EBITDA
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. OTC: CURLF 11.1 37.9 11.0 37.8
Trulieve Cannabis Corp. OTC TCNNF 7.0 14.9 7.1 15.1
Green Thumb Industries Inc. OTC: GTBIF 10.3 28.1 11.3 30.8
Cresco Labs Inc. OTC: CRLBF 6.7 22.3 6.9 23.2
AVERAGE 8.8 25.8 9.1 26.7
MEDIAN 8.7 25.2 9.1 27.0
MINIMUM 6.7 14.9 6.9 15.1
MAXIMUM 11.1 37.9 11.3 37.8
Implied Premium Over U.S. Big Four (Median) 87% 79%
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
The following chart shows the average EV/R of the companies we track in both
countries:
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Average EV/R
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Canadian Retail Cannabis Pricing
Province (As of 2021/08/9) Average Price per Gram Average Price per Gram THC Average Price per Gram CBD # of Products Min. Price Max. Price
B.C. $ 9.65 $ 9.72 $ 8.45 257 $ 3.53 $ 15.71
Ontario $ 9.38 $ 9.53 $ 7.88 371 $ 3.57 $ 22.66
Quebec $ 9.22 $ 9.21 $ 9.23 273 $ 3.60 $ 21.68
Alberta $ 10.68 $ 10.68 $ 10.61 423 $ 3.14 $ 22.00
N.B. $ 9.32 $ 9.45 $ 7.64 212 $ 3.57 $ 15.99
P.E.I. $ 9.67 $ 9.69 $ 9.34 187 $ 4.40 $ 23.30
Newfoundland $ 9.98 $ 9.94 $ 10.24 174 $ 4.08 $ 15.40
Yukon $ 16.33 $ 15.13 $ 13.95 4 $ 13.68 $ 13.95
N.S. $ 9.92 $ 9.96 $ 9.50 206 $ 4.64 $ 42.85
Nunavut $ 13.15 $ 13.35 $ 13.41 32 $ 9.43 $ 17.91
Northwest Territories $ 14.68 $ 12.65 2 $ 12.08 $ 17.28
Manitoba $ 11.31 $ 11.22 $ 11.55 373 $ 4.87 $ 23.57
Saskatchewan $ 11.92 $ 11.91 $ 12.07 275 $ 4.40 $ 38.50
CANADA $ 11.17 $ 10.96 $ 10.32
Province (As of 2021/08/3) Average Price per Gram Average Price per Gram THC Average Price per Gram CBD # of Products Min. Price Max. Price
B.C. $ 9.63 $ 9.70 $ 8.45 253 $ 3.53 $ 15.71
Ontario $ 9.37 $ 9.52 $ 7.88 371 $ 3.57 $ 22.66
Quebec $ 9.22 $ 9.22 $ 9.23 273 $ 3.60 $ 21.68
Alberta $ 10.73 $ 10.72 $ 10.78 418 $ 3.14 $ 22.00
N.B. $ 9.25 $ 9.38 $ 7.64 209 $ 3.57 $ 15.99
P.E.I. $ 9.62 $ 9.63 $ 9.34 187 $ 4.40 $ 23.30
Newfoundland $ 9.97 $ 9.91 $ 10.26 173 $ 4.08 $ 15.40
Yukon $ 16.33 $ 15.13 $ 13.95 4 $ 13.68 $ 13.95
N.S. $ 9.91 $ 9.94 $ 9.50 204 $ 4.64 $ 42.85
Nunavut $ 13.15 $ 13.35 $ 13.41 32 $ 9.43 $ 17.91
Northwest Territories $ 14.68 $ 12.65 2 $ 12.08 $ 17.28
Manitoba $ 11.30 $ 11.21 $ 11.55 374 $ 4.87 $ 23.57
Saskatchewan $ 11.96 $ 11.95 $ 12.07 273 $ 4.40 $ 38.50
CANADA $ 11.16 $ 10.95 $ 10.34
Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Stores, FRC
The average retail price per gram increased week-over-week from $11.16 to
$11.17. The chart below shows the Canadian retail dried cannabis flower pricing trend:
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Canadian Retail Dried Cannabis Flower Pricing
Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Stores, FRC
Canadian Retail Cannabis Stores
As of August 9, 2021, there are 2,384 retail cannabis stores, a WoW increase of 30
stores across Canada, including 29 in Ontario.
Nationwide Store Count
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July-19-2021 July-26-2021 Aug-3-2021 Aug-9-2021
Geographic Region Store Count Store Count Store Count Store Count Population Population / Store
Alberta 657 661 663 667 4,428,247 6,639
B.C. 367 367 369 366 5,120,184 13,990
Manitoba 105 106 106 106 1,379,121 13,011
N.B. 20 20 20 20 780,890 39,045
N.S. 25 25 25 25 978,274 39,131
Newfoundland 30 30 30 30 520,437 17,348
Northwest Territories 6 6 6 6 44,982 7,497
Nunavut 39,486
Ontario 948 954 945 974 14,745,040 15,139
P.E.I. 4 4 4 4 158,717 39,679
Quebec 74 75 84 84 8,552,362 101,814
Saskatchewan 96 98 97 97 1,181,987 12,185
Yukon 5 5 5 5 41,293 8,259
CANADA 2,337 2,351 2,354 2,384 37,971,020 15,927
Source: Provincial Websites, FRC
Weekly Psychedelic Commentary
Psychedelic Industry Performance
August 9, 2021
Company YTD 1-Week 1-Year
COMPASS Pathways plc -23% 1% 16%
Atai Life Sciences N.V. -26% -8% -26%
Numinus Wellness Inc. -15% -4% 265%
Mind Medicine Inc. -11% -2% -15%
Braxia Scientific Corp. -67% -2% -67%
Cybin Inc. 81% -18% 282%
Levitee Labs Inc. -5% -13% -27%
Seelos Therapeutics Inc. 4% 4% 116%
AVERAGE -8% -5% 68%
MIN -67% -18% -67%
MAX 81% 4% 282%
Index YTD 1-Week 1-Year
PSYK -14% -5% -14%
Source: TMX Money, FRC
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Last week, Cybin Inc. (NYSE: CYBN) started trading on the NYSE, making it the first
company in the psychedelic sector to list on the exchange. Massachusetts, Michigan,
and California are exploring resolutions to decriminalize the use of psychedelics.
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Disclaimers and Disclosure
The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any
“forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we
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forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned in pages 3, and 10-15 are covered by FRC
under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares in some companies
mentioned in this report including Barrick. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on
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