China NEV Market New Challenge and Opportunity - Lancy Zhang, Powertrain and NEV LMC Global Powertrain Webinar 18th Feb, 2021 - LMC Automotive
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China NEV Market
New Challenge and Opportunity
Lancy Zhang, Powertrain and NEV
LMC Global Powertrain Webinar
18th Feb, 2021
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Outline
• Market status in 2020
• Challenge and Opportunity in 2021
• Outlook
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 2
NEV market edged up 14.6% of 2020
Stimulated by local government, NEV sales boost in second half year
250 500%
74%
Thousands
140% 400%
200
-24.0% 119.6%
-30.8% 28.7% 300%
150 70% EREV
-47.0% -45.7% -32.4% 200%
23% PHEV
100
-71.9% 100% BEV
50 0% YoY
0 -100%
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jul-20
Oct-20
Feb-18
Apr-18
Sep-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Sep-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Sep-20
May-18
Aug-18
May-19
Aug-19
May-20
Aug-20
Jan-18
Mar-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
250 2019: 2020:
22nd of Jul, subsidy declined over 40% Shanghai’s municipal government has tightened
Thousands
200
By the end of Dec, extend subsidy to the end of 2022 restrictions governing road usage and license plates
in the city 2017
150
2018
100 2019
2020
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Data source: CAAM, LMC Automotive 3
The market share of none-CN brands boost
CN brands remains main contributors;
However, market share of US and EU brands is increasing.
BEV PHEV
2019
2020
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Data source: CAAM, LMCA GHEVF 4
NEV models is Upgrading
Economy is decreasing, its market share is only 20%
The proportion of Premium and non-premium is increasing, because of Model 3 and
BYD Qin respectively
2019 2020
Premium
14% Premium Economy
21% 20%
Economy Economy
41% Low-Cost
Low-Cost
Non-Premium 10%
Non-Premium Premium
42% Non-Premium
49%
Low-Cost
3%
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Data source: CAAM, LMCA GHEVF 5
NEV market switch from B to C
2019 Top 10 Models 2020 Top 10 Models
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Senova D50 Model 3
Surui/E5 Hongguang mini
E100 Aion S
Yuan E100
Ant R1
EC7 Ant
R1 Qin
Ei5 ES6
Eado Senova D50
EX5 e2 BEV
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 6
Outline
• Market status in 2020
• Challenge and Opportunity in 2021
• Outlook
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 7
NEV credit will decrease under new evaluation
NEV credit is surplus， but will decrease sharply under new regulation
NEV credit per vehicle Credit under ver 1.0 Credit under Ver 2.0
units 4.60 Points 5
4.20
3.60 5
3.00 2.90
4
3
2.36
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2
Actual NEV quota
1
units 31.0%
26.2%
0
16.5% 200 300 350 400 500 600 ……… 821 900
2020 target 12%
6.8% The other technical requirement is not taken consideration in this format.
4.1%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 8
The application of free car plates is more difficult
The one who can get a PHEV with free car plate should have no vehicles under hits
name
Qualification requirements for New Energy Vehicles(NEV) purchase
Measures for encouraging the purchase and use of NEV vehicles
Individual users with the certificate of non-commercial passenger car quota or has already have vehicles
Execution period Vehicle Type The vehicle (excluding motorcycle) that has been
Already have NEV and has been registered with the quota for non-commercial Excluded in the
registered with a special license. passenger cars or has the certificate of the quota above conditions
for non-commercial passenger cars
BEV/FCEV X √ √
Now ~ 2022.12.31
PHEV/EREV X X √
BEV/FCEV X √ √
2023.1.1 ~ end of
the policy
PHEV/EREV X X X
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 9
Intense competition among CN brands
Unqualified vehicles quit the market by 2020, significant by CN brands
JVs brands boost in 2021
2019 2021F
250 +111 CN
-61 EU
200 JP
KR
150 US
+22 +15 +7 +10
100 -1 -0 -3 -5
50
0
CN EU JP KR US
2017 72 4 7 3 7
2018 112 9 10 4 8
2019 128 18 17 8 11
2020 122 25 21 7 12
2021F 235 79 44 18 22
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Data Source: LMC Automotive GHEVF 10Milestone_Technical Roadmap 2.0
2025 2030 2035
Auto Sales Forecast
32 Million 38 Million 40 Million
PV CAFC(Incl NEV) PV CAFC(Incl NEV) PV CAFC(Incl NEV)
Passenger Vehicle 4.6L/100km(WLTC) 3.2L/100km(WLTC) 2.0L/100km(WLTC)
Truck CAFC: 8% Truck CAFC: 10% Truck CAFC: 15%
Commercial Vehicle Bus CAFC : 10% Bus CAFC: 15% Bus CAFC: 20%
ICE CAFC: 5.6 L/100km (WLTC) ICE CAFC: 4.8 L/100km (WLTC) ICE CAFC: 4.0 L/100km (WLTC)
Energy Saving HEV share of ICE: 50% HEV share of ICE: 75% HEV share of ICE: 100%
Share of total: 20% Share of total: 40% Share of total: 50%
NEV FCEV parc: 100k FCEV parc: 1 Million
PA/CA assemble rate : ≥50% PA/CA share of auto sales: ≥70% Widely applicated in China;
Connected Vehicle HA : Entering market HA share of auto sales: ≥20% Deep integration with NEV,
C-V2X assemble rate: ~50% C-V2X assemble rate: universal Transportation and city
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 11Outline
• Market status in 2020
• Challenge and Opportunity in 2021
• Outlook
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 12Outlook
NEV market is disturbed by COVID-19 in H1 2020, but recovered quickly in H2 2020;
The NEV volume of 2021 will be close to 2mn.
BEV PHEV EREV
4,000
Thousands
530
3,500
3,000
2,500 2021
+55% YoY
2,000
362 3,420
1,500
223
1,000 296 230
1,579
500 114
792 882 1,020
94 466
61 227
0 124
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2025F
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Data source: wholesale, LMCA GHEVF 13Electrification
The Coming Wave of Electrification in the US
Kevin Riddell, Senior Manager
LMCA Powertrain Webinar
18th February, 2021
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.Contents
US Electrification Environment
US EV Sales Outlook
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 15Sea of Change – A New President
USA rejoins the Paris Agreement.
President Biden is waiting to confirm his cabinet.
Delays encountered due to impeachment.
Replace federal fleet vehicles with BEVs.
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 16Sea of Change – A New President
Signed an Executive Order Protecting Public Health and
the Environment and Restoring Science to Tackle the
Climate Crisis.
Review the SAFE One National Program and the revisions to the
annual fuel economy standards.
EPA expected to approve California targets through 2026.
Canada and US continue to align fuel economy regulations.
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 17Sea of Change – 2035 Will Be a Big Year California enacted an executive order banning new IC vehicle sales by 2035. New Jersey and Massachusetts have similar targets. General Motors to eliminate pollution from all light-duty vehicles by 2035. © 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 18
Sea of Change – Battery Supply
Lawsuit between LG and SK Innovation.
SKI banned from selling batteries in US for 10 years.
Allowed to supply Ford F-150 for 4 years, VW I.D.4 for 2 years.
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 19US EV Sales Update
140
120
100
80
Thousands
60
40
20
0
Jan-18
Jun-18
Jan-19
Jun-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
May-18
May-19
May-20
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Nov-18
Dec-18
Nov-19
Dec-19
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-18
Sep-18
Aug-19
Sep-19
Aug-20
Sep-20
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
BEV FCEV PHEV HEV
December sales surge with 3 extra selling days.
BEV sales share 1.5% in 2019 and 2020. HEV sales share rises from 3.4% in 2019 to
5.3% in 2020.
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 20Contents
US Electrification Environment
US EV Sales Outlook
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 21US EV Sales Outlook
Light EV Sales
xEV sales:
3,500 7.3% in 2020
17.5% in 2023
3,000
2,500 HEV sales:
5.3% in 2020
Thousands
2,000 11.0% in 2023
1,500
PHEV sales:
1,000 0.5% in 2020
1.6% in 2023
500
0 BEV sales:
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1.5% in 2020
4.9% in 2023
HEV PHEV BEV
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 22Effects of GREEN Act passing in 2021
Light PEV Sales
Initially only GM
1,400 and Tesla will
benefit from the
1,200
higher selling
1,000 cap.
Thousands
800
600
PHEV sales up
400 49,000 units.
BEV sales up
200
162,000 units.
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PHEV PHEV + BEV BEV +
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 23BEV Ten Year Outlook
Light BEV Sales
4,500 25%
4,000
3,500 20%
3,000
BEV Sales Share
15%
Thousands
2,500
2,000
10%
1,500
1,000 5%
500
0 0%
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
BEV BEV Share
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 24Electrification
Europe & Global Update
Al Bedwell, Director, Global Powertrain
Powertrain Webinar
18th February, 2021
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.Contents
• Europe
• 2020 round-up
• Mid-term outlook
• World
• 2020 round-up
• Mid-term outlook
• Long-term forecast risks
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 26Europe: What Happened to the plug-in Market in 2020?
Pan-Europe Plug-in market Pan-Europe BEV market
300 18 200
BEV 2019 2020
+218%
PHEV
PEV % (right axis)
Sales (‘000s)
200 12
Sales (‘000s)
Share (%)
100
+180% 167k
100 6
83k
52k
30k
0 0 0
Nov Dec
2018 2019 2020
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast ‘000s % ‘000s % ‘000s %
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
BEV 204 1.1 359 2.0 730 5.1
PHEV 175 1.0 201 1.1 559 3.9
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Plug-in 379 2.1 560 3.1 1,289
27
8.9Europe: Meeting 2021 CO2 Target is Going to be Tough
Support for BEVs will decline this year
• Supercredits: Sub-50gm/km cars count Pan-Europe PV BEV market
as 1.67 sales this year rather than 2 200
2019
sales in 2020. +218%
2020 60k pull-
• Phase-in: 100% of car sales in the
Sales (‘000s)
region will be counted – no opportunity 2021 forward?
to discount the worst performing 5%.
100
• Incentive decline: Some have been +180%
carried over, but not all and not
necessarily for the whole year. +19%
• Ongoing lockdowns & chip crisis: 46k
39k
We assume plug-ins will be protected
0
as far as possible but….
Nov Dec Jan
• And the year has started badly Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 28Europe: 2021 BEV Forecast
• We think BEV demand has to grow by
Europe PV BEV market 400k+ in 2021 for CO2 targets to be met.
• The number of BEV models on sale will
1.0 +410k rise significantly - model count will rise
+57% from 41 in 2020 to 62 in 2021.
Sales (mn)
• Boosted xEV incentives continue in some
+350k 1.14 major markets – e.g. France & Germany.
0.5 +91%
0.73 • We expect a relentless plug-in sales
campaign, deletion of high CO2 emitting
0.38 cars and a strong H2 as vehicle demand
0.0 recovers following lockdown release.
2019 2020 2021
• Like 2020, we think most OEMs will hit
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
targets, but the risk of failure is greater.
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 29Europe: How is the Mid-Term Forecast Looking?
• BEV growth slows after the big CO2 Europe passenger car xEV market
push, but 2023 is over 1mn up on 2021. 10 BEV 50
44%
• PHEV is a big help for the 2021 CO2 PHEV
target but falls behind BEV as FHEV
xEV Share (%)
questions over emissions & cost arise.
Sales (mn)
MHEV
• The FHEV segment gets more players,
5 xEV 25
starts to grow strongly from mid-decade +20%
• 48V MHEV is the savior of the ICE +38%
segment, including most diesel by 2023
+80%
• Risk: In recent times we have only +93% 2.24
1.14 1.69
made upward revisions to the BEV 0 0.38 0.73
0
forecast - risk remains on the upside. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Includes pan-Europe + CIS
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 30World: BEV Demand Reached new Heights in 2020
World BEV market*
World vol ('000s) World %
5.7%!
400 6
Sales (‘000s)
Share (%)
200 3
0 0
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*including N. America LV
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 31World: Regional Contributions to BEV Growth Varied
World BEV market*
• Europe’s 2020 BEV & total
NAM markets went in opposite
China ROW 2.1mn
Europe -22k directions & at different
-17k
+115k speeds, driven by regulatory
1.7mn targets, OEM marketing
+377k activity & greater choice.
Sales (mn)
• China’s NEV sales were
trailing 2019 until mid-year
when the government
shored up incentives to
protect the NEV market in
the face of the pandemic.
• No new xEV incentives for
the USA xEV market. In fact,
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast they declined in 2020.
*including N. America LV
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 32World: Back to Reality at the Start of 2021?
World BEV market*
World vol ('000s) World %
400 6
Sales (‘000s)
3.9%
Share (%)
200 3
0 0
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*including N. America LV
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 33World: Pulling it all Together - the Global BEV Picture
World BEV market*
10 10 • More than a million extra
Q1 21 Vol Q1 2021 forecast BEVs will be sold this year
revision 8% globally as China’s NEV
Q1 21 Share
market gets up to full speed
Q4 20 Share
Sales (mn)
Share (%)
• Europe will also contribute
5 5 strongly once again
6.8 • And there is a risk, not shown
here, that USA plug-in sales
+27%
+56% 3.3 could receive a near-term
2.1 boost if the GREEN bill
0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
passes, extending the tax
credit limit from 200k to 400k
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*including N. America LV
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 34World: Risk to the Long-Term BEV Forecast
30 World BEV sales by major market/region* 28.0
Total upside
risk circa 10mn
20 China Europe USA World
Sales (mn)
10.3 10.0
10
5.0
0
2023 2027 2031
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
*including N. America LV
• We will add a significant portion of the upside risk volume to the Q1 2021 update
• Most will be in China, but we’re keeping an eye on 2030 EU CO2 target revision too
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 35Electrification Enablers
An Insight into Future Developments and Technical
Trends of Electrification
Oliver Petschenyk, Powertrain Analyst
Global Powertrain Webinar
18th February 2021
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.BEVs: Why Isn’t Everyone Driving Them?
• Cost
• Range
Ben Sullins You tuibe
• Charging Infrastructure
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 37Cost Comparison
Battery electric vehicle versus internal combustion vehicle purchase cost outlook
Batteries under $200 per kWh
$75,000 BEV Engineering design offers new realms of BIW design
E-motor mass manufacturing pick up
$65,000
$55,000 Batteries under $100 per kWh
$45,000 New battery chemistry potentials become mainstream
$35,000
$25,000 Increase of SUV popularity EU7 drives new level of aftertreatment
2017 2031
Source: researchgate.net
ICE BEVLow
BEV 100Range BEVMid
BEV 200Range BEVHigh
BEV 250Range
• Increasingly stringent ICE emission targets drive onboarding of expensive technology to meet these targets
• By 2022 the cost of a low range BEV will be comparable to ICE vehicles
• By 2027 the longer range BEVs (Mid & High) will be strong competitors in price to ICE vehicles offering similar
range at a lower cost, primarily due to the cost of batteries reducing
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 3Battery
By far the most expensive component!
Easy ways to reduce cost in the battery
Reduce battery capacity (reduced cell count, smaller cells) – Negative user impact
Reduce performance (charging capacity, output capability) – Negative user impact
The engineering challenge is to reduce cost but maintain or improve a positive user impact.
Note:
Large battery Small battery
Cost Cost
Greater range Weight reduction
Charging convenience Charging convenience
Reduced degradation Higher degradation
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 39Battery Technology Development
Cell to Pack - Disregard serviceability and create a module-less cell to pack
Cell Module Pack
64 Cells
Cell Pack
80 Cells
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. +25% more cells in the same volume 40Battery Technology Development
Structural Pack - Reduce BIW by utilizing a truly structural battery
Structural batteries are multifunctional materials or structures, capable of acting as an electrochemical
energy storage system (i.e. batteries) while possessing mechanical integrity
Currently torsional stiffness to the body is only provided via the outer battery housing
Hindered with isolation and cooling requirements of the cells
Multiple levels of isolation may no longer be required allowing cells to become part of a ‘composite floor’
Tesla have gone a step further, by sandwiching their new 4680 cylindrical cells they are creating a
physical composite structure where the cells become the “honeycomb” cores
Tesla Battery Day slides
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 41Battery Technology Development
Global BEV battery capacity trend – weighted average by production volume
75 Advanced Lithium
Battery Capacity (kWh)
70
Diminishing gains
Weighted Average
65
60
Optimised Lithium
55
50
45
40
Source: LMCA Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Forecast
35
2015 2020 2025 2030
NEAR TERM: IMPROVING LITHIUM-ION MID-TERM: ERA OF DIMINISHING GAINS LONG TERM: BEYOND LITHIUM-ION
• New anode and cathode materials • Low-hanging fruit is harvested by • Battery cost and performance breakthrough
• Stable and higher quality electrolytes this time, and any advance is • Solid state as an alternative to liquid electrolyte
and additives minimal, before switch-over to • Li-Air, Li-S, as an alternative to li-ion
• Better pack design and materials next-gen batteries • Next gen liquid, gel, polymer electrolytes to
• Advanced control enhance performance of new anode and
• Better manufacturing processes cathode materials
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 42Battery Technology Development
Beyond Lithium Ion
Energy Density
Current Li-ion Technology Solid-State Electrolytes
Time to
market/scalability Power Density
Li-Silicon Li-Air
Cost Life (no. of charge)
Super Capacitors Sodium-ion
Safety (Toxicity, Life
Stability, Fire ) (Longevity/Enviromental)
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 43Battery Pack Price Outlook This curve represents market
average – in reality the cost
1,000 depends on the segment, vehicle,
Past 10 years: -$86/yr OEM, and chemistry!
Pack Wholesale Cost ($/kWh*)
500
Current view is that Li, Mn, & Ni
$137 (BNEF) supplies will be sufficient to keep
0 up with demand, but prices will
be spiky. Efforts to remove Co
140 $137 (BNEF) We aren’t assuming a
120 commercial-level battery
100 Next 10 years: -$8/yr breakthrough such as solid state
$100 (BNEF)
80
$62 (BNEF) before 2030
60
40
Incentives needed BEV-ICE cost parity* BEV-ICE profit parity*
The outlook from here is Li-ion
with scale, optimisation and
incremental gains
*Price representative of mass market BEV model with NMC battery pack
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 44Motor Technology
What are the options?
Induction Motor Permanent Magnet
Internal Magnets
Rotor Stator
No rare earth materials Rare earth materials
Low regeneration High regeneration
Lower efficiency High efficiency
Low cost High cost
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 45
Images from Learn Engineering – YoutubeMotor Technology
Obvious choice, PM-motors?
Current motor usage splits:
Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor
Induction Motor
Motor choice – the best of both? Source: LMCA Global Light Vehicle Powertrain Forecast
• Axle 1 : PM-SynRM as a primary mover
• Axle 2 : Induction motor as a low cost, freewheeling motor
Tesla
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 46Charging Infrastructure
How fast is fast charging?
Slow charging 3.6kW-22kW (Household)
Charge time between 14 and 3 hours*
Better for the battery life 400kW+
Higher efficiency Ionity Porsche
Fast charging 50kW-400kW EV Tronic/EV Box
Electrify America
Charge time between 60 and 8 minutes*
Tesla
Least efficient way of charging due to system losses
Highest detriment to battery life
1x 50kW Public fast charger can serve up to 150 cars per week*
1x 350kW Public fast charger can serve up to 1000 cars per week*
(*Assumes 50kWh of charge per vehicle)
As battery technology and power density improves even higher power fast chargers are plausible by 2030
© 2021 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 47support@lmc-auto.com
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by experts
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