COVID-19: Policy Interventions and Socio-economic Impact in Andhra Pradesh, India
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Munich Personal RePEc Archive COVID-19: Policy Interventions and Socio-economic Impact in Andhra Pradesh, India Bahinipati, Chandra Sekhar and Sirohi, Rahul A and Biswal, Dinamani and K, Gouthami and G, Suresh and Singh, Monalisa Indian Institute of Technology Tirupati 18 May 2020 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/100501/ MPRA Paper No. 100501, posted 27 May 2020 06:16 UTC
Policy Brief No. 1, Department of Humanities 1
and Social Sciences
COVID-19: Policy Interventions and Socio-economic Impact in Andhra
Pradesh, India
Chandra Sekhar Bahinipati1, Rahul A. Sirohi1, Dinamani Biswal2, Gouthami K.2, G. Suresh2 and
Monalisa Singh2
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed several lives and has already adversely affected the
livelihoods of millions of vulnerable households. This policy brief surveys the current status of the
disease, its spread and its likely socio-economic effects in the context of Andhra Pradesh, India.
Given the global scope of the shock, the policy brief emphasizes the need for innovative and bold
policy measures, particularly from the states’ perspective.
1. Overview
The Covid-19 pandemic has spread to over 200 countries infecting almost 4 million people and
killed nearly 0.3 million worldwide. As the casualties rise and as underfunded health systems crack
under pressure, the effects of the pandemic on economic growth and development are likely to be
very grave. China, for instance, has already ground to a halt as have major economies in Europe
and North America. The worst affected nations around the world are: United States of America,
Italy, Spain, Russia, United Kingdom, France, Brazil, India, etc. As of May 15, 2020, around 82
thousand people got infected and the death toll is in between 2600 and 27003. The Indian economy
which was already facing an economic slowdown for different reasons4, is likely to feel the full
blow of the pandemic in the coming months as well.
The current economic conjuncture poses very difficult trade-offs for policy makers and it raises
challenges that are altogether novel5. Economic shocks of course are not uncommon and
governments around the world have developed an arsenal of weapons to tackle them but what is
different about the Covid-19 induced crisis today is its unprecedented scope and global scale. In a
1
Assistant Professor, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Tirupati, Tirupati
– 517506, India; Email: csbahinipati@iittp.ac.in; rahul.sirohi@iittp.ac.in
2
Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Tirupati, Tirupati –
517506, India. Further, we have acknowledged the assistance received from Jagadeesh for developing Figure 8.
3
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/coronavirus-cases-in-india-live-news-latest-
updates-may15/liveblog/75748805.cms; accessed on May 15, 2020
4
Subramanian, A. and J. Felman, (2020), “India’s great slowdown: what happened? What’s the way out?” CID faculty
working paper no. 370, Center for International Development, Harvard University.
5
Chandrasekhar, C.P. (2020). Knowns and Unknowns in the Covid-triggered Global Economic Crisis. India Forum,
available at: https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/knowns-and-unknowns-covid-triggered-global-economic-crisis
[viewed 1/5/2020]Policy Brief No. 1, Department of Humanities 2
and Social Sciences
world where everything from a cup of coffee to an Android phone is manufactured in carefully
coordinated supply chains scattered over several different countries, a simultaneous and drastic
shock of the kind that we are witnessing today, presents a drastic shock to global supply lines and
thus raises completely new challenges to policy makers. Whereas previously the appearance of
shortages in one region could be alleviated by imports from another, the complete freeze on
business activities across the globe today, rule out such responses. Apart from its implications for
supply, the massive job loss that is underway as a result of the lockdowns is likely to also spiral
into a major compression of consumer demand. According to Centre for Monitoring Indian
Economy (CMIE), around 27 million youngsters (those are in 20s), for instance, loss their job in
the month of April 20206. This combined free fall of demand and supply raises grave uncertainties
for governments and it constrains traditional tools available to policy makers. Rising up to the
challenges of the Covid-19 crisis requires new, out of the box and innovative policies and in this
regard the state of Andhra Pradesh can play a leading role.
2. Covid-19 in Andhra Pradesh
2.1. Current Scenario
From a comparative perspective, the spread of the Covid-19 virus has been brought under control
in the state. As figure 1 shows, the total number of cases increased steadily with since late March,
with over 1000 cases being reached on April 25th, 2020. But a closer analysis of the doubling rate
reveals that the rate of increase of cases has been declining steadily over the period. More precisely,
beginning from late March till around till April 5th, the number of cases exhibited a doubling after
every 4 days (there was a large jump between March 30th and April 3rd), but this doubling rate
can be seen to have dropped sharply thereafter to a frequency of 10 days despite the spike between
April 21st and 25th. While the numbers are still very far from the ones achieved by Kerala, they
look much rosier than the worst hit states in India. Figure 2 shows the total number of cases for
four other South Indian states. While Kerala and Karnataka are the standouts, Andhra Pradesh has
indeed not fared too badly either. These numbers of course must be seen in the context of total
number of tests conducted. It has been widely acknowledged that a key to fighting the spread of
the virus is to test as widely as possible and on this front Andhra Pradesh remains far ahead of the
pack as can be seen in figures 3 and 4. Its testing rate (per million) is four times that of Telangana
and around double the rates in Karnataka and Kerala. Thus comparisons of the number of cases
across these states must also take into consideration these high testing rates. These statistics
however must be viewed with caution because whereas there has been a massive deployment of
ICMR approved testing kits, according to some reports, in addition the state has also made use of
TrueNat machines, generally reserved for testing tuberculosis7.
6
https://www.firstpost.com/business/covid-19-lockdown-impact-27-mn-youth-in-their-20s-lost-their-jobs-in-april-
reveals-cmie-8368431.html; accessed on May 16, 2020
7
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/how-andhra-pradesh-is-conducting-the-highest-number-of-covid-19-tests-
per-million-population-829040.html [viewed 1/5/2020]1
Mar 14, 2020
1
Mar 16, 2020
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1
Mar 18, 2020
Mar 14, 2020
3
Mar 16, 2020
Mar 20, 2020
6
Mar 18, 2020 Mar 22, 2020
Mar 20, 2020 Mar 24, 2020
Mar 22, 2020 Mar 26, 2020
Mar 24, 2020
R² = 0.8924
Mar 28, 2020
Mar 26, 2020
8 11 19 23
Kerala
Mar 28, 2020
Mar 30, 2020
y = 23.309x - 221.07
Total Confirmed Cases_AP
Apr 1, 2020
111
Mar 30, 2020
Apr 1, 2020 Apr 3, 2020
Apr 3, 2020 Apr 5, 2020
164 256
Pradesh
Apr 5, 2020
Apr 7, 2020
314
Apr 7, 2020
Apr 9, 2020
Apr 9, 2020
Source: Authors’ figure (data collected from covid19india.org)
Source: Authors’ figure (data collected from covid19india.org)
Apr 11, 2020 Apr 11, 2020
Apr 13, 2020 Apr 13, 2020
363 405 439
Apr 15, 2020 Apr 15, 2020
Apr 17, 2020
and Social Sciences
Figure 2. Total Number of Confirmed Cases
Apr 17, 2020
525 572
Apr 19, 2020
Apr 19, 2020
Figure 1. Total Number of Confirmed Cases in Andhra
647
Apr 21, 2020
Karnatak
Tamil Nadu
Telangana
Apr 21, 2020
757
Apr 23, 2020
Linear (Total Confirmed Cases_AP)
Andhra
Pradesh
Apr 25, 2020 Apr 23, 2020
893
Policy Brief No. 1, Department of Humanities
Apr 25, 2020
1016
3Policy Brief No. 1, Department of Humanities 4
and Social Sciences
Figure 3. Number of Testing per million
People (as on April 29, 2020)
Kerala 722
Tamil Nadu 1334
Karnataka 811
Telengana 480
Andhra Pradesh 1628
Source: Authors’ figure (data collected from covid19india.org)
Figure 4. Number of Testing and Confirmed Cases per million
People (as on April 29, 2020)
1800
Testing per million People
Andhra Pradesh
1500
Tamil Nadu
1200
900
Karnataka
Kerala
600 India
300 Telangana
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Confirmed Cases per million People
Source: Authors’ figure (data collected from covid19india.org)
2.2. Effectiveness of various policy interventions
Both the national and state governments have reacted to the spreading of COVID 19 by trying to
enforce social distancing. One of the major interventions in this regard was the lockdown which
began on March 24. The first phase ended on April 14, 2020 and it was extended to May 3, 2020,
thereafter. This has been further extended to a third phase. Figure 5 shows the daily growth rate of
confirmed cases in the state during the lockdown period. A lower growth rate was observed duringPolicy Brief No. 1, Department of Humanities 5
and Social Sciences
lockdown-2. Similar findings also noticed when we estimate CAGR (see Figure 6). During pre-
lockdown (March 14 to March 23), and lockdown-1 (March 24 to April 14) periods, the state has
witnessed a higher CAGR in comparison to India. Moreover, a slightly lower CAGR was observed
during the lockdown 2 period (April 15 to May 3). If one looks at district wise numbers (Figure
7), the CAGR in four districts -Kurnool, Krishna, Chittoor and Anantapur- has been very high
when compared to state CAGR. These numbers of course have to be viewed with caution and
careful statistical analysis will have to be undertaken to see if the lockdown has indeed had the
desired effects. Figure 8 shows district-wise total number of confirmed cases on March 23, 2020,
April 14, 2020 (ends lockdown-1) and May 4, 2020 (closes lockdown-2). Given the lockdown, the
total number of Covid-19 cases has been increased in few districts like Krishna, Guntur, Kurnool,
Nellore, Chittoor and Kadapa. It indicates that the government needs to take several other
interventions apart from lockdown to control the spreading of Covid-19 cases across these districts.
The insights from the Behavioural economics may help the policy makers to handle such pandemic
situation in more effective way.
FIGURE 5. DAILY GROWTH RATE OF TOTAL NUMBER OF
CONFIRMED CASES IN ANDHRA PRADESH
200.0
152.3
91.3
66.7
46.2
34.2
33.3
25.0
20.0
18.4
18.2
17.1
16.7
14.3
11.6
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.1
10.0
9.8
9.5
8.5
7.4
7.3
7.1
6.3
5.4
5.0
4.8
4.5
4.3
3.7
3.6
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
APR 10,
APR 11,
APR 12,
APR 13,
APR 14,
APR 15,
APR 16,
APR 17,
APR 18,
APR 19,
APR 20,
APR 21,
APR 22,
APR 23,
MAR 14,
MAR 15,
MAR 16,
MAR 17,
MAR 18,
MAR 19,
MAR 20,
MAR 21,
MAR 22,
MAR 23,
MAR 24,
MAR 25,
MAR 26,
MAR 27,
MAR 28,
MAR 29,
MAR 30,
MAR 31,
APR 1,
APR 2,
APR 3,
APR 4,
APR 5,
APR 6,
APR 7,
APR 8,
APR 9,
PRE-LOCKDOWN LOCKDOWN 1 LOCKDOWN 2
Source: Authors’ figure (data collected from covid19india.org)Policy Brief No. 1, Department of Humanities 6
and Social Sciences
Figure 6. CAGR of Total Confirmed
Cases in India and Andhra Pradesh
CAGR_AP CAGR_India
Lockdown 2 6.32
7.21
Lockdown 1 21.58
15.36
Pre-Lockdown 20.81
16.95
Source: Authors’ figure (data collected from covid19india.org)
Note: CAGR- Compounded Annual Growth Rate; the data from lockdown 2
Figure 7. District-wise CAGR of Confirmed
Cases during Lockdown 2
YSR Kadapa 4.97
West Godavari 4.82
Visakhapatnam 2.84
Prakasam 1.88
Nellore 2.46
Kurnool 8.79
Krishna 9.66
Guntur 5.58
East Godavari 4.99
Chittoor 6.56
Anantapur 7.04
Source: Authors’ figure (data collected from covid19india.org)Policy Brief No. 1, Department of Humanities 7
and Social Sciences
Figure 8. District-wise total number of confirmed cases in Andhra Pradesh
Source: Authors’ figure (data collected from covid19india.org)
3. Socio-Economic Impact
The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the state have to be seen in the context of its occupational
structure. India is home to one of the largest informal work force in the developing region. An
estimated 90% of workers are engaged in the informal sector. In Andhra Pradesh, recent estimates
suggest that only 7.4% of rural and 29.1% of urban workers are salaried workers. The share of
contract workers is minute, at around 1.7% of total work force. Strikingly, well over half the rural
work force and approximately a third of the urban work force is employed as casual labour8. Given
this occupational structure, the effects of the virus induced lockdown are likely to wreck-havoc on
the livelihoods of a majority of the work force that is dependent on informal employment. Self-
employed workers running shops, grocery stores and other kinds of small businesses are also likely
to be adversely affected by the lockdown. The supply crunch aside, demand depressing effects of
are likely to be an important channel through which the state will be effected as millions of
informal workers will be forced into joblessness until the lockdowns are lifted and until some
8
Data collected from Report on District Level Estimates for the State of Andhra Pradesh (2013-14,) available at:
https://labour.gov.in/sites/default/files/AP%20District%20Level%20Report.pdf [Viewed 14/4/20]Policy Brief No. 1, Department of Humanities 8
and Social Sciences
semblance of normality returns. Such adverse effects are likely to spread and hit large sections of
the population.
Another area of immediate concern is with regards to Andhra’s agricultural sector. While the
country has adequate food stocks to cover existing demand, the lockdown may have unpredictable
effects on regional food supply and on farmer incomes. With the sudden shut down in government
procurement, the wide spread closure of vegetable markets, freeze on surface transportation and
acute labour shortages, supply chains connecting agricultural producers to consumers will likely
be disrupted. Anecdotal evidence coming in from various parts of the country suggest that farmers
have been forced to sell their produce at prices well below market price due to supply chain
failures, but such a state of affairs may well turn out to be temporary. If supply bottlenecks persist
there is a possibility that food inflation may follow and this would add further pressure on the
already fragile conditions of rural and urban households. Further, while such price rise may
transmit some benefits to agricultural producers, they would not benefit substantially as the
margins will largely be captured by middlemen and traders9. It is worth emphasizing that the state
government has already begun a drive to purchase paddy at MSP at the village level itself to help
alleviate some of these issues10.
4. Time to Innovate
The lockdown imposed on the country has been justified in terms of the lethal nature of the Covid
pandemic. Yet, in a state like Andhra Pradesh where a vast majority of the work force depends on
informal sector, such a freeze is likely to have devastating effects on the livelihoods of millions of
households. There is an immediate need to provide adequate and timely assistance to the most
vulnerable sections of the work force so that they may tide over these unusual times. Such a stance
would obviously require expansionary fiscal policies which have come to be frowned upon by
policy makers in recent times. But given the grave nature of the current crisis there appears no
alternative to emphasize on such policies which have already been embraced by a number of
developed economies. Of course, an expansionary fiscal stance as a stand-alone package is likely
to be of little use and it may even backfire given that the crisis today has a major supply-side
dimension to it. Given the degradation of supply chains that a state like Andhra Pradesh is facing
today, there is a need to back fiscal activism by expanding access to food and other essential
products through the PDS and by expanding citizen’s access to quality and timely health care as
well. The state government can therefore play more pro-active role in ensuring that essential
commodities are available in adequate quantities and at cheap prices. The dilapidated PDS system
could be revamped and modernized to undertake such tasks. Further given the high density of
population in India and terrible conditions of living that the vast majority of Indians have to face
9
See Ramakumar, Ram (2020). The Covid--19 Pandemic and Indian Agriculture: A Note. Foundation for Agrarian
Studies, available at: http://fas.org.in/blog/covid19-and-indian-
agriculture/?fbclid=IwAR1AM2XOUobLroQWnFB97aLGydVGlGaOwocpsTJG9QTUMV5DAX6W021TYrA
[viewed 1/5/2020]
10
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/in-a-first-ap-government-to-procure-paddy-at-the-
doorstep-of-farmers/article31342512.ece [viewed 1/5/2020]Policy Brief No. 1, Department of Humanities 9
and Social Sciences
on a daily basis, to slow the spread of such diseases the government must think in terms of
universal housing schemes as well, as have been experimented with in other developing nations.You can also read
